Next Normal Examining the impacts of COVID-19 on the future of commerce - Edition 3: March 8, 2021 - ISMI
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Next Examining the impacts
Normal
of COVID-19 on the
future of commerce
Edition 3: March 8, 2021
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Welcome
So, 2021 arrived as most would have predicted. Yet the euphoria of seeing off a very challenging 2020
was soon dented by the realization that administering vaccines is not a quick task, the last-minute Brexit
deal between the UK and the EU, and the storming of the Capitol Building in Washington, DC. The first
seven days of this new year were anything but uneventful!
For most, little has changed. Lockdowns, home schooling, Zoom calls and limited (if any) access to old-
fashioned social activity (that is, being with other people) is still the reality for most of us.
A new administration entered the White House on January 20th. With it, the hopes of a divided nation
that some form of reconciliation and togetherness may emerge following the divisive rhetoric of the last
four years. Time will tell.
Through it all, we go about our lives as best we can. Adapting, changing, and normalizing new behaviors
seemingly daily.
The third edition of The Next Normal looks at where we are now with these behaviors. What was
emerging and what will now stick? What did we think would remain, but has died away? And which
behaviors do we see bubbling up now that may become part of our Next Normal? Understanding and
anticipating these changes is the first step to building a strategy for growth. It’s our intent to provide you
with our perspective to aid with your strategic planning, and we sincerely hope this is useful to you and
your organization.
Craig Elston
Global Chief Strategy Officer
celston@integer.com
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Next Normal, Edition 3
Introduction
Our Collective State
- The State of COVID-19
- Influential Headwinds and Tailwinds
Edges and Converging Trends
- Security Blankets
- Evolving Connections
- Conscientious Economy
- Reflective Shopping
Closing Thoughts
About The Integer® Group
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OUR COLLECTIVE STATE
The state of the virus, our economy, and our culture are influential factors that impact the world around us.
And as the U.S. approaches one year of weathering the COVID-19 pandemic, these factors are still constantly changing.
Let’s take a moment to understand our collective state to provide some context and meaning
behind our observations and implications.
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COVID-19 in the U.S.
Americans have weathered several surges since our last edition. The onset of cold weather, the temptation of holiday travel and related
gatherings in tandem with the introduction of new variants caused cases to surge and Americans to experience a deeper side of the
pandemic. As a new year starts and vaccines roll out, cases are dropping. But with more American deaths in the last 12 months than
occurred in two world wars, Americans are still anxious. Anxious about their health, their chances of getting a vaccine, and their ability to
embrace what’s next.
United States COVID-19 Case Count United States COVID-19 Hotspots
Updated March 5, 2021 Updated March 5, 2021
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Vaccination Progress
While the pace of vaccination continues to pick up, Americans are still frustrated with the current system and uncertainty. An estimated
70—90% of the population needs to acquire resistance to COVID-19 to reach herd immunity. At the current pace, about half of the
population would be at least partially vaccinated around June and nearly all at the beginning of November 2021. This demonstrates the
long road ahead for many Americans (especially in the face of new variants), as well as a possible timeline for cultural changes.
United States COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout
Updated March 4, 2021
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The Light at the End of the Tunnel
With the roll out of vaccines, it’s as if we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. While a post-COVID life may still be far off, the gradual
shift out of uncertainty and never-ending adjustments and into a new climate of vaccinations and, therefore, more socializing is
promising. The real challenge ahead will be our ability to balance the adjustment and acclimation phases without losing momentum
against the virus.
Passive Restricted Adjustment Acclimation Post—
Prevention Living (post-vaccination) COVID-19
Cautious Back to
Reentry Normal sans
Guidelines
June 2020—
Feb 2020 March—May 2020 July 2021 Jan—Dec 2021 2022 or 2023
While vaccination opens new It is still uncertain if there
doors, it will not be into the same will ever be a post-COVID-
Active Cautious old life of pre-COVID-19. Safety 19 world. Not only will
measures and our new normal many cultural habits
Preparation Reentry Back to Restricted Living will persist while some may sustain, but emerging
struggle to adjust to going back variants may make it
The ongoing fatigue of the pandemic created a to work or even socializing. something that we have to
vicious cycle within the adjustment phase. One battle for years to come.
in which desire to reenter culture created
opportunities for surges, which in turn pushed
many back into restrictions. This cycle will likely
persist until most people are vaccinated.
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Factors Influencing the 2021 Commerce Landscape
As we look at 2021 and beyond for commerce, it’s important to analyze the “Headwinds,” conditions that make growth more difficult,
and “Tailwinds,” conditions that will push growth forward. How COVID-19 will ultimately affect 2021 is unknown, but there is strong
momentum from consumers WITH are strong indications that COVID-19 fatigue is setting in and consumers are taking 2020 lessons
with them into the new year.
>>> Headwinds Tailwinds
Factors Influencing the 2021 Commerce Landscape
• More than 6-in-10 Americans say they were more stressed in 2020
>>> Headwinds compared to 2019, contributing to overall consumer uncertainty that leads
into 2021.
• In April 2020, the U.S. saw the highest unemployment rate since
1. Continued uncertainty mindset
1948, leaving people with less disposable income in 2020. Given
consumers’ price sensitivity, value remains the primary reason for trying
2. Less disposable income new brands and even new retailers as unemployment rate ended 2020 just
under 7%.
3. Further reevaluation of spending & • This led to a reevaluation of spending and value, as a result of uncertainty
redefining of value and this cautious mindset. Many spent less on leisure and food
service, shifting priorities to grocery and stocking up—there is a larger shift
toward essentials and value.
4. COVID-19 vaccination criticism
• Major issues with the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine are complicating
initial optimism leading into 2021, as well as some hesitation around
actually getting the vaccine. About 20% of Americans say they are unwilling
to accept any vaccine.
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Factors Influencing the 2021 Commerce Landscape
• Consumers are now spending 70% of their food and beverage budgets at retail,
TailwindsEDGES AND CONVERGING TRENDS
In this third edition of Next Normal, we examined the four edges from Edition 2, determining
that while the edges are still applicable, the converging trends within each are what is evolving.
WHAT IS AN EDGE?
An edge is an emerging shift in culture, fueled by various identifiable trends,
that points to a new behavior and commercial opportunities for brands.
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SECURITY EVOLVING CONSCIENTIOUS REFLECTIVE
BLANKETS CONNECTIONS ECONOMY SHOPPING
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The pandemic is greatly impacting
our physical, emotional, and financial
health. In turn, culture (and shopping
culture) is seeking things that provide
a sense of security—whether they are
tangible or emotional—during this
time when control seems lost and
unease is still running rampant.
Converging Trends:
1. Comfort-Driven Nowstalgia >
Reimagining the Regular
2. Financial Flexibility
3. Personalized Bubbles
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CONVERGING TRENDS
THE NEXT NORMAL NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS EMERGING TRENDS
Comfort-Driven Nowstalgia Reimagining the Regular
Consumers continue looking to the past to lift Revamping beloved hobbies and rituals or
their spirits and pass the time. Embracing simple simply making the everyday more exciting in
pleasures and hobbies (from puzzling to light of pandemic fatigue.
gardening and baking) to provide a sense of
normalcy and security. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
Personalized Bubbles
Pandemic fatigue, embracing tech.
Personal bubbles are becoming more and more
personalized. From personalized PPE to
Financial Flexibility individualized experiences it is allowing consumers
to do what they love while maintaining their sense
of personal safety.
Consumers and brands have found innovative
solutions to help navigate difficult financial times
and encourage continued spending. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
Furthermore, shoppers are flexing their Pandemic fatigue, CDC guidelines, seasonality.
perception of essential spending to account for
their new social and financial lives.
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Brand and Retailer Reactions:
TikTok is feeding people’s cravings for twists to the everyday.
From pancake cereal to sea shanty songs and the
#tortillatrend, TikTok is exposing innumerable hacks and ways
to entertain yourself. But it’s not just user-generated content
that is inspiring consumers and shoppers. Brands like Lego
and O’Douls are helping people reimagine their routines.
Goodbye classic Legos, this year adults can create their own
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS
Lego bonsai or floral bouquet while kids can bring their
minifigures to life through AR. And while dating has been
Comfort-Driven Nowstalgia >
reimagined for COVID, so have its classic rituals. With the rise
Reimagining of non-alcoholic drinks, Match and O’Douls have teamed up to
help daters mix up their rituals.
the Regular Velocity & Volume: Building huge volume of conversation, this trend
paced with seasonal changes as people sought out new activities to start
the new year off right.
Approaching a year into pandemic
life, consumers and shoppers are
moving beyond classic hobbies, and
looking to make comforting
everyday activates a bit more
exciting. Embracing their creativity,
they are reimagining regular
routines and beloved hobbies to
keep their minds active.
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Source: Netbase, Jan 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021SECURITY
BLANKETS
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
Masks and social distancing can make it difficult to connect and
lead a “normal life.” But culture’s desire for connection has helped
us find a way. Masks that tout your favorite sports team, phrase or
image allow people to express themselves and open the door for
friendly, neighborly chatter that we all miss (at least to some
degree). Or your mask can help support local businesses. But it’s
not just PPE. Industries known for socializing are reinventing
EMERGING TREND
themselves to meet consumers desires. While Airbnb is adjusting
for a rise in demand for more family-centric locations that allow
people to disconnect, dining domes have overtaken the restaurant
Personalized industry, allowing consumers to enjoy a bit of normalcy while
maintaining their personal bubble.
Bubbles Velocity & Volume: This trend saw movement throughout the pandemic
and started to pick up as we entered winter, yearning for options that
would allow us to ”socialize” safely.
While personal safety is paramount,
consumers are finding new ways to
make their personal bubble more
personalized. Consumers are buying
into things that help them live more
and express themselves without
sacrificing personal safety.
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Source:
Source: Instagram,
Netbase, Jan 1,Netbase Social
2020- Jan Listening, USA, Jan 1, 2020 -
31, 2021SECURITY
BLANKETS
Path to Purchase Implications
1 EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTION: Change is a challenge. While consumers are
looking to evolve, a complete reinvention is intimidating. Brands need to ensure that
ideas are as approachable as they are inspiring.
2 CREATIVITY COLLABORATION: Consumers are interested in creating. Rather than
seeing them as your audience, consider them as a partner and see if that yields a
new approach.
3 ELEVATE THE EXPERIENCE: While safety is top of mind, brands should consider how
to elevate the experience as much as the safety to encourage shopper buy-in.
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2021 INTEGEREVOLVING
CONNECTIONS
COVID-19 has shown that connection is
not optional; it is essential. The pandemic
has made us more covetous of our
personal interactions. But how we
connect with one another looks
dramatically different. Out of necessity,
consumers are reacquainting and
introducing themselves with connective
tools, while seeking connection through
communities.
Converging Trends:
1. Video Overload
2. Healthy App-etite
3. Communities > Building
Community
4. Connecting through AI
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CONNECTIONS
CONVERGING TRENDS
THE NEXT NORMAL NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS EMERGING TRENDS
Communities Community Building
While communities were specific last year, focus
After a chaotic year (at home), the need for has shifted toward aspirations to build a larger
communities continues to grow. Brands are community that brings us all together.
playing a hand in fostering online communities
and pushing messages of togetherness as INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
shoppers seek support and guidance. Winter surge, election division.
Connecting Through AI
Video Overload
Limited connections with others have led many to
Consumers and shoppers have continued to look to reconnect with themselves, through AI.
accept and adapt to a video-first world to More brands are innovating with AI in ways that are
interact with loved ones and even brands and allowing consumers to gain more personal insight
retailers. It is even being embraced as a means and solutions.
to unwind.
INFUENTIAL FACTORS:
Cycle of reopening/closing economy, need for at-
Healthy App-etite home solutions, social distancing measures.
It’s not just grocery and delivery apps that saw
widespread adoption during the pandemic.
Brands and retailers continue to adopt app
shopping and advance how they engage with
consumers.
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CONNECTIONS
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
Our culture’s desire for unity is being amplified by brands,
some of whom used the Super Bowl as their stage to take a
stand. Brands like Jeep, Indeed and Anheuser-Busch created
Super Bowl ads that spoke to unity and the need to support all.
Big brands were showing their support for small businesses in
their ads, while the Verizon Super Bowl event offered links to
donate and support small business communities throughout
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS
the big game. Outside the big game, brands are creating
change for the masses. Indie beauty brands, like Glossier or
Communities >
Glow Recipe, are taking over the category as they have
Building prioritized building connections, creating inclusive
communities and democratizing beauty.
Community Velocity: Events post election and into the new year created a negative sentiment in America. One that was so
large and palatable that people and brand’s messages about coming together could not breakthrough on the
internet, despite it resonating in culture.
Realizing the power of community
to create change, our culture is
Social Conversation about Unity
putting more effort toward
building community. Creating
larger communities that can help
make real changes in areas of
equity, sustainability and overall Despite division, people applauded and
embraced Amanda Gorman’s inspiring
national comradery. poem. Moments after her performance,
Gorman gained more than 200,000
followers on Twitter — and a whole lot of fans.
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Source: Netbase, Jan 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021, Washington Post, NY Daily NewsEVOLOVING
CONNECTIONS
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
While mental and physical wellness have become a greater
priority, it comes with the challenge of mastering it from home.
Brands like Atolla are tapping into AI to bring expertise home—
using facial recognition and quizzes to create personalized
serums for a better at-home skincare. Similarly, brands like
EMERGING TREND Mirror, Peloton, and Headspace all utilize AI to create
personalized and meaningful experiences. Amazon Halo
Connecting
bands are adding depth of insight to their users by allowing
them to not only track steps, but moods as well.
Through AI Velocity: Since our last edition in August AI has emerged in conversation as people embrace its advanced
personalized capabilities—from leveraging the technology to connect to others to also using it to better
connect with oneself.
With mental and physical health in
the spotlight, the pandemic is
prompting self-discovery and
improvement. And brands are using
AI to help consumers connect with
themselves through tech.
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Source: Netbase, Jan 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021EVOLOVING
CONNECTION
Path to Purchase Implications
1 INCLUSIVITY: As the desire and need for communities grows, brands should ensure
that messaging and content is inclusive and leaves room for growth across channels.
2 PERSONALIZED AI: As shoppers continue to seek AI solutions and grow open to this
new form of connection, brands and retailers should consider how personalized AI
solutions can fit into their pre- and post-retail occasions.
3 UPLIFTING CONNECTIONS: The prolonged effects of the pandemic have left many
feeling depressed. While the end may be farther out, there is opportunity to
brighten the smallest parts of everyday—and small gestures will help consumers
weather what is to come.
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2020INTEGER
INTEGERCONSCIENTIOUS
ECONOMY
After a year of reflection,
conscientiousness is now a need-to-
have across the consumer
experience. No longer content to
wait for others to act, consumers are
wielding their voices and dollars to
reshape how they engage with
brands and vice versa.
Converging Trends:
1. DIY Independence > DIY’s
the Limit
2. Under [Collective] Pressure >
Caring Ahead
3. Leaning Local > Local State of
Mind
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ECONOMY
CONVERGING TRENDS
THE NEXT NORMAL NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS
DIY Independence DIY’s the Limit
Our hands-on hobbies have evolved into empowering behaviors.
Consumers have adopted a Make-Do attitude, looking to brands
and retailers for help as many venture into the new world of DIY. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
Pandemic fatigue, novelty, renewed views for a new year.
Under [Collective] Pressure Caring Ahead
Consumers and brands are taking intentional steps when it comes to identity,
Consumers have shown their collective strength, combining sustainability, access to resources, and education.
voices across channels to demand action from brands for things
ranging from retailer rules of conduct to new legislation due to INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
movements like BLM. Accountability, new year, new administration.
Leaning Local Local State of Mind
“Local” has become a relative term, and our sense of belonging is less confined to
Consumers and brands alike are doubling down on their efforts to geography and more about a way of doing business.
support local business across various industries, as they have been
the hardest hit during the pandemic. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
eCommerce, home delivery, persistent economic distress, COIVD restrictions, WFH.
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ECONOMY
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
On social, terms like “branding your business” and “accounting
basics” are trending, as well as “_____ for beginners.” As a
result we are seeing more start-ups like Tula + Tye, a
sustainable fashion brand started by a former public relations
manager, who turned her tie-dye passion into a new gig.
Squarespace taps into this trend with its “5 to 9” campaign,
providing the digital tools needed to transform side-hustles
into careers. But it’s not all about business. Parents are
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS supplementing their children's education with lessons in
mindfulness, moral lessons and real-world teachings. And
DIY Independence > artists and performers are creating new art by collaborating on
DIY’s the
TikTok, which in turn is leading to publishing opportunities like
the Ratatouille Musical.
Limit Velocity: Velocity of this trend sustained through the year and saw
renewed interest in the Fall and new year as people were looking to get
a fresh start amid the pandemic.
Our hands-on hobbies have evolved
into empowering behaviors. Through
the act of making—whether it’s dinner,
bread, or embroidery—we have
regained a sense of control and self-
reliance. Now consumers are applying
that ”do it yourself” mentality to all
aspects of their lives. In turn, this is
creating new roles for brands and
retailers to play.
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Source: Netbase, Jan 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021CONSCIENTIOUS
ECONOMY
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
56% of consumers want brands to support people during COVID-19, and
51% want brands to be more eco-friendly. The chief strategy officer of
SocialChorus is showing what focus on people means by encouraging
company employees to identify their top three priorities for each day and
log off as soon as they’ve accomplished them. Meanwhile, many
companies are taking action to support national efforts from vaccination to
eco-friendly solutions: Amazon wants to help with vaccine distribution
while Budweiser used its standard Super Bowl advertising budget to boost
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS vaccine awareness. GM’s Super Bowl ad “We’re Coming for You, Norway”
exemplified its commitment to electric vehicles. While other brands are
Under [Collective] Pressure > making strides to reduce waste: Dove’s deodorant comes in a refillable
Caring
container to help Unilever’s pledge to cut new plastic use in half by 2025;
Hellmann’s Mayo has been repositioned as a tool to reduce home food
waste, and Walmart, Target, Kroger, and CVS have banded together for
Ahead
the ”Beyond the Bag” initiative, which will replace the plastic bag.
Velocity & Volume: As 2020 drew closer to the end, it became increasingly clear that consumers
are looking for businesses they patronize to go beyond making vague “public commitments”— to
actively demonstrate how they are (or will) positively impact the world at large.
The current state of the world is less
than perfect and has us thinking ahead
to the future we want instead.
Consumers and brands are taking
more intentional steps when it comes
to identity, sustainability, access to
resources, and education.
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Source: Netbase, Jan 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021CONSCIENTIOUS
ECONOMY
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
While brands like DoorDash and Uber Eats are using their
airtime to show support for local businesses, some global
brands are going to market with local business solutions. Nike
opened its latest small format store, Nike Live, in Eugene,
Oregon, the company’s birthplace. The store heroes the
brand’s community including Eugene’s running spots and
community product recommendations. Budweiser is also
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS eschewing its standard mass marketing with locally-inspired
and exclusively distributed ”Buds,” such as Detroit’s own “Big
Leaning Local > Sean Bud,” honoring the hometown hero rapper. Target and
Local State Amazon have been using community research to inform stock
at its smaller format stores to make sure all the local favorites
are available.
of Mind Velocity: Outside of the usual holiday “shop local” uptick, culture continued to embrace local
efforts, for various reasons, while brands are increasing efforts to reach out to local communities.
“Local” has become a relative term, “Analysis indicates omnichannel features and
between consumers’ shifting interests Search: ”shop local”
experiences that retailers adopted in 2020 will
and remote work opportunities, our revitalize physical stores and allow them to take
sense of belonging is less confined to advantage of proximity to local consumers.”
geography and more about a way of
Consumers’ main reasons for shopping at a locally
doing business. “Local” is becoming
owned business (online or in-store):
more about connecting authentically, 1. Strengthening the local economy (57%)
specializing, and understanding 2. Helping support local job creation (41%)
identity. 3. Investing in their community (35%)
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Source: Google, Aug 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021, Chain Store AgeCONSCIENTIOUS
ECONOMY
Path to Purchase Implications
1 INSPIRE & EMPOWER: Brands and retailers can support consumers by taking more
ownership of their interests and providing tools and resources that align with their
refreshed goals.
2 WALK THE WALK: Make sustainability and social conscientiousness part of your
business operations in order to attract new customers, who are increasingly
evaluating purchases considering a company’s values.
3 GET HYPERLOCAL: Connect with audiences through hyper-localization and
community-driven research in order to keep up with a rapidly changing world,
particularly within the urban landscape and the proliferation of remote work.
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2020INTEGER
INTEGERREFLECTIVE SHOPPING
COVID-19 is creating a significant level of
psychological uncertainty, causing people
to reevaluate how they shop, where they
shop, and what they shop for.
Converging Trends:
1. Reorganized Spaces > Fluid Spaces
2. Human Premium/Low-Contact
Solutions > Immersive Shopping
Experiences
3. Expanding Ecosystems
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SHOPPING
CONVERGING TRENDS
THE NEXT NORMAL NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS EMERGING TRENDS
Reorganized Spaces Fluid Spaces
Reimagining not just spaces but business
Retailers are reorganizing their physical space to models to be accommodating to the changing
not only protect shopper’s health, but also needs of consumers and the industry.
provide additional functionality (e.g., ghost
kitchens, pick-up) that is being used to INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
supplement business. Minimal IRL spaces, industry shifts.
Expanding Ecosystems
Human Premium Retailers are expanding their offerings beyond the
traditional four-wall features—putting more focus on
Frontline employees are still the most powerful creating a branded vs. a functional experience.
assets for brands and retailers. With physical Immersive Shopping Experiences
store presence not always possible, retailers are In the absence of physical experiences, brands
INFUENTIAL FACTORS:
finding new ways to provide that human touch. are creating the digital equivalent for
Shape-shifting consumer need states, channel
experiential shoppers. shifts, and competitive blurring.
INFLUENTIAL FACTORS:
Low-Contact Solutions Anxiety/fear of IRL experiences, desire for
personalized and convenient solutions.
While they started as a critical precautions, low-
contact solutions have become a convenient go-
to for many shoppers in a variety of industries.
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SHOPPING
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
Verishop's Shop Party enables groups of up to five customers to
video chat in the app while shopping, as well as share screens,
compare looks, and see each other’s carts. Verishop’s take on
group shopping online is already used by Chinese platforms like
WeChat and Alibaba. In the states, Beauty Counter installed a
studio in a new Los Angeles store last month designed specifically
for live streaming. Customers tune in remotely to browse the aisles,
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS attend community events and catch makeup tutorials and
demonstrations from their home. Online, Pinterest introduced its
Human Premium/Low Contact > augmented reality try-on tool to allow customers to test out
Immersive eyeshadow products. The company also announced the expansion
of its product tagging feature.
Shopping
Experiences
Velocity: This trend has sustained since the pandemic began, evolving with time and
seeing a traction around the holidays—especially during the early shopping season.
Immersive shopping experiences
continue to evolve and become the
norm. From everyday shopping to
trying on beauty products, immersive
experiences are transforming
commerce. Convenience culture and
the desire for entertaining shopping
experiences continue to drive this
edge forward.
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Source:
Source: Unsplash,
Netbase, Online
Jan 1, 2020- Shopping
Jan 31, 2021 TogetherREFLECTIVE
SHOPPING
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
The hotel industry is reconsidering an idea that used
to be taboo—day rentals. Day-use hotel booking
platform Dayuse.com has experienced a surge in
demand over the last year. Over 2,000 hotels have
signed on in hopes of attracting stir-crazy, work-from-
home professionals and weary parents who want their
kids to burn off some energy in the hotel pool. In
NEXT NORMAL EVOLUTIONS addition, AMC Theatres made a necessary pivot from
destination to streaming service. With AMC Theatres
On Demand, Stub Loyalists have a world of movies at
their fingertips with opportunities to earn rewards.
Reorganized Spaces >
Fluid Spaces Velocity: As the pandemic progressed, this trend
sustained and became next normal to the extent that it
was not a new topic of conversation. Consumers
accepted and embraced these changes.
As the pandemic has impacted
some industries more than others,
fluid business models have become
more essential. From the travel
industry to cinemas, these industries
are taking a second look at how they
operate to help stay afloat for now
and in the future.
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Source:
Source: Denver
Netbase, Post,
Jan 1, Remote
2020- Jan 31,Work
2021 Hotels, 2021REFLECTIVE
SHOPPING
Brand and Retailer Reactions:
Executing its long-term vision of expanding beyond retail and
gallery offerings, RH is building an ecosystem. They are
investing in hospitality concepts, restaurants, residential
developments, and workforce housing, starting with their
Guesthouse concept in Aspen's Crystal Palace. In addition,
Lululemon invested in expanding its ecosystem to reach inside
the home with newly acquired in-home fitness company,
Mirror. And American Airlines is no longer just an airline. Their
EMERGING TREND newly launched Flagship Cellars is a program that sends the
wines that they serve onboard straight to consumers' homes.
Expanding
P&G’s Old Spice is opening its first barbershop that will also
serve as a digital content studio, retail store and test lab to
help develop new products.
Ecosystems Velocity & Volume: Since the last edition in August, we saw this trend emerge as
savvy, risk-adverse brands began to explore beyond their original business models.
Retailers are expanding their offerings
beyond the traditional four-wall
features and business plan to meet
evolving shopper needs, channel shifts,
and blurring competition. Traditional
brick-and-mortar stores are creating
engaging environments and
experiences so that consumers form
deeper and more meaningful
connections with the brand.
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Source: Netbase, Jan 1, 2020- Jan 31, 2021REFLECTIVE
SHOPPING
Path to Purchase Implications
1 EMBRACE FLEXIBILITY: Flexible business models and offerings will only become more
essential as the world around us continues to evolve with uncertainty. Brands and
retailers should self-evaluate to identify untapped opportunity within their own physical
space to uncover new, engaging ways to fulfill commerce and deliver experiences.
2 EXPERIENCE FIRST: We, the people, now expect immersive shopping experiences.
These types of integrated experiences are no longer a nice-to-have. Brands and
retailers need to build an experiential component into commerce planning.
3 THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX: Retailers and brands should consider extending services
outside their traditional offerings in order to create more meaningful connections at
different touchpoints with consumers.
34 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGER
34 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2020 INTEGER
2021 INTEGERClosing
Thoughts
35 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGERInfluential Factors for the Future
Nearly a year into the pandemic, our thoughts have turned to vaccinations and the timetable
for lifting state restrictions on gatherings and leisure activities. This will not only bring new life
to certain areas of the economy and our culture, but will also impact our shopping behavior.
Unfortunately, there are still too many unknowns for us to get terribly excited at the moment.
The challenges of schooling, working from home, and unemployment still dominate.
The road ahead is still uncertain as the new administration fights to provide more needed
financial stimulus to people, and grapples with the logistical challenge of vaccinating 100m
people in President Biden’s first 100 days in office.
Our prediction in Edition 2 of a stop-start approach to reopening came to fruition over the
holiday season, but with some stabilization in the number of cases and vaccine roll-out
underway, optimism about lifting restrictions is increasing.
Finally, the specter of virus mutations, which are now present in the U.S., have the potential to
reverse everything if vaccines are found to be ineffective against them, or if people decide to
hide in their homes because they fear for their health. The next, Next Normal, is certain to see
a very different world once again.
36 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGER
36 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGERKeeping Pace with an Evolving World
We’ve reached another level of the Next Normal in life. The changes that rapidly appeared throughout 2020
are now ingrained in our behaviors and our culture and will remain a part of life for a long time.
We are, however, tired. Our resilience continues to be tested on a daily basis. Progress feels slow. Zoom
fatigue is a fact of life, yet our need for community remains as heightened as ever. We are also looking further
ahead, with renewed intentions from consumers and brands to secure a more sustainable world. AI has taken
hold in our personal wellness endeavors, and we continue to seek ways to improve ourselves. The act of
making has garnered new meaning as we seek ways of maintaining a sense of control and self-reliance.
Finally, our notions of physical spaces are changing. Much of this is driven out of commercial necessity, in
order to generate new revenue in new ways. It’s also an opportunity to further pivot businesses to maximize
technology opportunities and changes in behavior.
We are in a Next Normal right now. But what will follow? How will the population respond as spring arrives
and vaccinations increase? We intend to remain vigilant to the changes that occur, to continue to monitor
trends and the implications they will have for retailers and brands alike. Then when we feel another set of
normalized behaviors is with us, we will share out perspective with you.
37 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGER
37 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGERCOVID-Driven Commerce: Summary on a Page
SECURITY EVOLVING CONSCIENTIOUS REFLECTIVE
BLANKETS CONNECTIONS ECONOMY SHOPPING
The pandemic is greatly COVID-19 has shown that After a year of reflection, COVID-19 is creating a
impacting our physical, connection is not optional; it is conscientiousness is now a significant level of
emotional, and financial essential. The pandemic has need-to-have across the psychological uncertainty,
health. In turn, culture (and made us more covetous of our consumer experience. No causing people to reevaluate
shopping culture) is seeking personal interactions. But how longer content to wait for how they shop, where they
things that provide a sense of we connect with one another others to act, consumers are shop, and what they shop for.
security—whether they are looks dramatically different. Out wielding their voices and
tangible or emotional—during of necessity, consumers are dollars to reshape how they
this time—when control seems reacquainting and introducing engage with brands and
lost and unease is running themselves with connective vice versa. Converging Trends:
rampant. tools, while seeking connection 1. Reorganized Spaces >
through communities. Converging Trends: Fluid Spaces
Converging Trends: 1. DIY Independence > 2. Human Premium/Low-
1. Comfort-Driven Converging Trends: DIY’s the Limit Contact Solutions >
Nowstalgia > 1. Video Overload 2. Under [Collective] Immersive Shopping
Reimagining the Regular 2. Healthy App-etite Pressure > Caring Experiences
2. Financial Flexibility 3. Communities > Building Ahead 3. Expanding Ecosystems
3. Personalized Bubbles Community 3. Leaning Local > Local
4. Connecting through AI State of Mind
38 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGERWe are the Growth Company.
The challenges that marketers lose sleep over are the very things we dream
about: uncovering, creating and sustaining Growth for the brands we work with.
We believe in the power of data-driven intelligence to uncover the most
About rewarding Growth opportunities with our clients and to fuel creativity that
delivers results. Our work starts conversations, creates connections and drives
conversion that can be measured and optimized in real time through our core
The Integer capabilities: Retail Experience Design, Retail Marketing, eCommerce & Social
Commerce, Connected Commerce Media, Brand Communications & Activation,
and Technology & Innovation.
Group ®
Integer is a key member of Omnicom Group Inc. and Omnicom Commerce
Group, and serves as the commerce arm of TBWA\Worldwide. With more than
1,000 data and culture-driven associates in 22 offices around the globe, we are
all commonly focused on growth for clients, including AT&T, FedEx, Frito-Lay,
Michelin, Nestlé, P&G, PepsiCo, Starbucks and more.
For more on Integer’s strategic thought leadership, our client solutions and
Adaptive Retail, please contact:
Craig Elston
Global Chief Strategy Officer
celston@integer.com
39 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGERNext Normal is a series of papers, and many team members have helped to shape it.
This edition was authored by:
Kira Walstrom
Director, Insight & Strategy, Denver, kirawalstrom@integer.com
Brooke Hollander
Senior Strategist, L.A., behollander@integer.com
Lauren Knudson
Authors
Account Planner, Dallas, lknudson@integer.com
Megan McCaslin
Account Planner, Denver, meganmccaslin@integer.com
Celia Hoag
Account Planner, Denver, celiahoag@integer.com
With special thanks to Jennifer Marzett, Social Strategist, Dallas, jmarzett@integer.com
40 // PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL © 2021 INTEGERExplore
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Thinking
Follow Shopper Culture for the latest intel on the world of commerce and how shopping culture
continues to evolve.
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