North American Drought Monitor - June 2020 - National ...

North American Drought Monitor – June 2020
At the end of June 2020, moderate to exceptional drought (D1-D4) affected 12.4% of the
area and 11.4% of the population of North America. The percent area value was 4.0% more
than the value for the end of May 2020. The percent population value was 5.1% more than
the value for the end of May. At the end of June, 38.4% of the Rio Grande/Bravo River Basin
and 24.8% of the Columbia River Basin were in moderate to extreme (D1-D3) drought,
27.3% of the Great Plains was in moderate to exceptional (D1-D4) drought, and 6.8% of the
Great Lakes Basin was in moderate drought. The North American Great Plains extends across
the United States and into adjacent parts of northeast Mexico and the southern Prairies of
Canada. The percent area values for the Great Lakes and Rio Grande/Bravo River Basins and
Great Plains increased this month, while the value for the Columbia River Basin decreased
compared to the end of May.

CANADA: Throughout June, Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions remained and expanded
across Canada and drought conditions deteriorated further in Eastern Canada. Most of
Canada received near normal temperatures except for parts of British Columbia and Quebec
where temperatures were warmer than normal. Fourteen percent of the country was classified
as either abnormally dry (D0), in Moderate Drought (D1) or in Severe Drought (D2); this
includes thirty-four percent of the agricultural landscape. Above normal precipitation caused
D1 conditions to improve in western parts of British Columbia and across Vancouver Island.
Conditions in the southern Prairies worsened as Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought
(D2) pockets formed; however, Alberta saw significant improvement due to substantial
precipitation received in the last 30 days. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions persisted and
Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) formed in Central Canada as seen in
western Ontario and southern Quebec due to short term below-normal precipitation and
inadequate streamflow. Precipitation was well below average for much of Atlantic Canada
as well, causing abnormally dry (D0) conditions as well as Moderate Drought (D1) and
Severe Drought (D2) to prevail; this particularly affected New Brunswick, but also parts of
Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. Expansion of D0 in Northern Canada, specifically in
the Northwest Territories, was identified using satellite-derived precipitation data.

Pacific Region (BC)
Drought conditions improved in British Columbia throughout June due to above normal
precipitation over the last 2 months. However, pockets of abnormally dry (D0) conditions
persist in some coastal, central interior and eastern areas. Four percent of the Central Region
was classified as either abnormally dry (D0), in Moderate Drought (D1) or in Severe Drought
(D2); this includes seven percent of the region's agricultural landscape. Recent precipitation
ameliorated conditions on Haida Gwaii from the previous month, leading to the removal of
Moderate Drought (D1). A D0 pocket remains, however, extending out to Prince Rupert as
less than 60 percent of average precipitation was received in this area in the last 90 days; this
remains the same for Vancouver Island as well. A small pocket of abnormally dry conditions
(D0) developed south of Bella Coola in the central interior of the province. Excessive
precipitation in central British Columbia led to flooding events and excess moisture causing
D0 conditions to improve along the southern border, particularly near Grand Forks. The D1
pocket remained near Oliver and Severe Drought (D2) developed near Osoyoos due to short-
and long-term precipitation deficits. A small pocket of D0 also remained near Creston
because of below average precipitation in the past 3 months.

Prairie Region (AB, SK, MB)
Drier conditions continued to plague the southern Prairies this month, while central parts of
Saskatchewan and Alberta received ample precipitation. Eight percent of the Central Region
was classified as either abnormally dry (D0), in Moderate Drought (D1) or in Severe Drought
(D2); this includes eighteen percent of the region's agricultural landscape. Moist conditions
were predominantly seen across much of Alberta in June resulting in normal to above-normal
streamflow levels. Although abnormally dry (D0) conditions remain in northern Alberta,
Moderate Drought (D1) conditions have improved around High Level due to above normal
precipitation over the last 6 months. Pockets of abnormally dry (D0) conditions developed
near Banff but significant precipitation of at least 80 mm during the last 5 days of the month
caused D0 conditions to improve in southern areas. D0 conditions also improved slightly in
central Saskatchewan after receiving more than 125 mm over the last 3 months. However,
southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba continue to experience abnormally dry (D0) conditions
where less than 80 mm of precipitation has been received in the last 3 months. A pocket of
D1 was expanded from Assiniboia towards Fort Qu’Appelle given that the area has seen less
than 75 mm of precipitation compared to normal in the past 60 days. In addition, conditions
deteriorated further around Moose Jaw due to receiving less than 40 percent of average
precipitation in the last 2 months, leading to the development of a Severe Drought (D2)
pocket. Improvement of dry conditions were seen in northeastern Manitoba, but abnormally
dry (D0) conditions remained in southwestern Manitoba; this led to the formation of a D1
pocket south of Brandon as less than 50 mm of normal precipitation was received in the last
30 days.

Central Region (ON, QC)
Central regions of the country saw conditions deteriorate throughout this month due to
worsening dry conditions, particularly throughout southeastern Ontario and southern
Quebec. Twenty-four percent of the Central Region was classified as either abnormally dry
(D0), in Moderate Drought (D1) or in Severe Drought (D2); this includes seventy-four
percent of the region's agricultural landscape. Conditions in northern Ontario remained
relatively the same as the previous month, indicated by satellite-derived precipitation data

and low streamflow levels. As such, the D0 and D1 pockets located around Thunder Bay
remained in place. Conditions in central Ontario normalized throughout June, as at least 115
percent of normal precipitation fell; this led to a few small D0 pockets being removed.
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions shifted slightly more south from Windsor to Niagara Falls.
In addition to this, conditions deteriorated from Oshawa, Ontario towards the Gaspe
Peninsula as less than 60 percent of normal precipitation fell across much of this area in the
last 2 months. This led to the expansion of D0 and the formation of a D1 and D2 pocket to
form near Montreal. Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) also formed across
parts of the Gaspe Peninsula after receiving less than 30 mm of precipitation in the last 30
days.

Atlantic Region (NB, NS, PE, NL)
Much of Atlantic Canada was significantly impacted by the considerably low precipitation
received in the past 2 months. Twenty-four percent of the region was classified as either
abnormally dry (D0), in Moderate Drought (D1) or in Severe Drought (D2); this includes
ninety percent of the region's agricultural landscape. Over the last 2 months, New Brunswick
received exceptionally below average precipitation and insufficient streamflow causing
abnormally dry (D0) conditions to prevail and the development of D1 and D2 in the short
term across the province. These conditions persisted across Prince Edward Island as well,
where D0 remained in place with a small Moderate Drought (D1) pocket near Summerside
due to less than 120 mm of precipitation falling in the past 90 days. The majority of Nova
Scotia received less than 40 mm of precipitation this month, resulting in the expansion of
abnormally dry (D0) conditions throughout much of the province. In contrast, D0 conditions
improved in Labrador due to adequate streamflow values and satellite-derived precipitation
data.

Northern Region (YK, NT)
Conditions in the Northern Region were a mixed bag for the month of June, depending on
the area of focus. Although no drought conditions exist, ten percent of the region was
classified as abnormally dry (D0). Pockets present in the Yukon, particularly between
Dawson and Mayo, were removed due to adequate streamflow values; this area received 200
percent of normal precipitation in June and saw very high snowpack values throughout the
winter. Satellite derived data indicated not only that dryness persisted near Whitehorse, but
also expanded in the Northwest Territories from Yellowknife towards Great Bear Lake. This
resulted in the extension of abnormally dry (D0) conditions in the area.

UNITED STATES: Widespread June showers in the Southeast and Midwest, as well as
parts of the northern Plains and Northwest, maintained generally favorable growing
conditions for most summer crops. By June 28, two-thirds to three-quarters of the nation’s
barley, rice, spring wheat, corn, and soybeans were rated in good to excellent condition.

However, several regions experienced developing or intensifying drought. According to the
U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage increased from 19.90 to 25.52 percent of the Lower
48 States during the 4-week period ending June 30. The last time more than one-quarter of
the country was covered by drought was October 2018.

June drought development was most notable in parts of New England. In addition, drought
persisted in a broad Western area centered on northern California, the northern Great Basin,
and parts of the Northwest. However, Northwestern drought impacts were tempered by cool
weather and occasional showers.

By month’s end, the country’s most serious drought stretched from the Four Corners region
to the southern half of the High Plains, with adverse impacts on rangeland, pastures, winter
wheat, and rain-fed summer crops. Nationally, 16 percent of the winter wheat, 24 percent of
the cotton, and 26 percent of the rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor
condition on June 28.

Two Atlantic Basin tropical storms formed during June, boosting the season-to-date total to
four. Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall on the afternoon of June 7 near the mouth of
the Mississippi River and moved generally northward, crossing the upper Great Lakes region
on June 10. The band of rainfall directly associated with Cristobal was relatively narrow, but
the former tropical storm’s interaction with a cold front led to a broader area of precipitation
across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Later, Tropical Storm Dolly—which had no
effect on weather in the United States—formed over the northern Atlantic Ocean on June 23.

Elevated temperatures (locally more than 5ºF above normal) across the nation’s mid-section
increased moisture demands for a variety of crops. June warmth also extended across the
Midwest and Northeast. Conversely, cooler-than-normal conditions covered many areas west
of the Rockies.

Outside the contiguous United States, there was neither dryness nor drought in Alaska on
June 30. Meanwhile, drought coverage in Hawaii fell slightly, from 34 to 23 percent, between
June 2 and 30, despite mostly dry weather in leeward locations and near- or above-normal
temperatures statewide. In Puerto Rico, drought coverage significantly increased during June
from 14 to 55 percent. Puerto Rico’s drought was concentrated across southern and eastern
sections of the commonwealth.

Historical Perspective: According to preliminary data provided by the National Centers for
Environmental Information, the contiguous United States overall experienced a warmer- and
drier-than-normal June. The nation’s June average temperature of 70.3°F (21.3°C) was 1.8°F
(1.0°C) above the 1901-2000 mean, while precipitation averaged 2.72 inches (69.1 mm)—
93 percent of normal. It was the 24th-warmest, 39th-driest June during the 126-year period
of record.

State temperature rankings ranged from the 21st-coolest June in South Carolina to the fifth-
hottest June in Rhode Island. Top-ten values for June warmth were also observed in Kansas
and North Dakota, along with five other Atlantic Coast States from Delaware to Maine.
Meanwhile, state precipitation rankings ranged from the 13th-driest June in Maine to the
13th-wettest June in Idaho. Maine’s hot, dry June led to 39 percent of the state experiencing
drought by month’s end, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Agricultural, Hydrological, and Wildfire Highlights: On June 28, Texas led the nation in
sorghum rated very poor to poor (25 percent), along with oats (22 percent), and peanuts (13

percent), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Texas cotton was categorized as
36 percent very poor to poor, with only Missouri cotton faring worse at 38 percent.
Elsewhere on June 28, at least one-fifth of the winter wheat was rated very poor to poor in
Colorado (39 percent), Texas (28 percent), and Kansas (20 percent). New Mexico led the
country in rangeland and pastures reported in very poor to poor condition (68 percent),
followed by California (55 percent), Maine (42 percent), Colorado (39 percent), Oregon (38
percent), New Hampshire (31 percent), and Texas (31 percent).

Despite late-spring and early-summer showers in Oregon, late-June topsoil moisture was
rated 41 percent very short to short. Topsoil moisture shortages were even more serious in
five other Western States: New Mexico (86 percent very short to short on June 28), California
(80 percent), Colorado (69 percent), Wyoming (59 percent), and Utah (45 percent). In
addition, topsoil moisture was at least 40 percent very short to short throughout the Plains,
except in Montana and South Dakota. Dry conditions also plagued northern New England,
led by New Hampshire (topsoil moisture 89 percent very short to short on June 28) and Maine
(86 percent). Nationally, topsoil moisture was 34 percent very short to short, compared to
just 12 percent in late-June 2019.

On June 30, more than one-quarter (28 percent) of the nation’s winter wheat production area
was in drought, up from 22 percent just 4 weeks earlier. Similarly, the portion of the country’s
cattle inventory in drought rose from 19 to 23 percent between June 2 and 30. Finally, 18
percent of the hay production area was in drought on June 30, up from 13 percent at the
beginning of the month.

On July 1, statewide reservoir storage in the western United States as a percent of average
for the date was mostly near or above normal. However, storage was slightly below average
in California, Colorado, and Oregon, and significantly below average in New Mexico.

Meanwhile, wildfire activity in the United States overall remained below average in most
parts of the country through June and into early July. By mid-July, year-to-date wildfires had
burned more than 1.7 million acres (about 700,000 hectares), well below the 10-year average
of 3.2 million acres (about 1.3 million hectares). However, several large fires burned during
June in the Southwest. In Arizona, for example, the Bighorn Fire—sparked by lighting on
the evening of June 5 in the Catalina Mountains, northwest of Tucson—eventually scorched
nearly 120,000 acres (nearly 50,000 hectares) of grass, brush, and trees. However, Arizona’s
largest fire of the month—and fifth-largest fire in modern state history—was the 193,455-
acre (78,288-hectare) Bush Fire, northeast of Mesa. The Bush Fire was a human-caused
blaze, started by a vehicle on June 13.

MEXICO: The tropical cyclone season in the tropical Atlantic Ocean began with an
important contribution of precipitation on the Yucatan Peninsula and southern country. June
2020 was classified as the thirty-third wettest June since 1941 at the national level with 108.7
mm, which is 3.8 percent above the monthly June’s average (1981-2010). Above-average
precipitation fell in the southeast, the northeast, and the slope of the Gulf of Mexico, as well
as in specific areas of the central-north plateau, the northwest, and the Baja California
Peninsula.

Rainfall surpluses over southeastern Mexico were mainly associated with the passage and
evolution of tropical storm Cristobal, which produced a maximum of 635.5 mm from June 1
to 6 at the Air Force station located in the city of Mérida, Yucatan. With approximately 47
hours on land, Cristobal was classified as the fifth tropical cyclone with the longest
permanence on Mexican territory, according to records since 1851. Cristobal’s rainfall, along
with trough lines and tropical waves, caused the three States in the Yucatan Peninsula to
record their wettest June since 1941. Near this zone, Chiapas and Tabasco recorded their
seventh and eight rainiest June, respectively. Due to these conditions, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the southern country and the slope of the Gulf of Mexico ended June without drought.

In the northeast, the passage of two cold fronts, the development of trough lines and moisture
incoming from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean favored rainfall above average. In
the northwest, the Mexican monsoon has started late, with few locations between Sonora and
Chihuahua exceeding the June’s average. The states that observed the most significant
rainfall deficits were Tlaxcala, Jalisco, and Oaxaca, reporting their sixth, seventh, and eighth
driest June since 1941, respectively. In three months, from April to June, Tlaxcala recorded
their fifth driest period, Guerrero their seventh, while Oaxaca and Michoacán places as their
ninth driest period from April to June.

The scarce rain on the Pacific Mexican side caused the emergence of extreme drought (D3)
in southwest Guerrero state, while in Oaxaca the severe drought (D2) increased from 12.3
percent to 22.7 percent over the last 30 days. In the North Central Basins region, a severe
drought condition arose (D2), while areas with moderate drought (D1) increased 12.0 percent
compared to last month’s assessment. The increase in moderate drought (D1) was also
observed in southern Sinaloa, northern Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Mexico State, western
Morelos and Tlaxcala. As of June 30, the coverage of drought from moderate to severe (D1-
D3) extends over 17.8 percent of the national territory.

As for mean temperature, June 2020 was classified as the sixth warmest June since 1953, 2.0
°C above the June’s average (1981-2010) of 24.3 °C. It should be noted that the six months
elapsed this year have been above average. Climatologically, a subtropical high
predominated during the month, which is associated with the atmospheric dynamics of the
North American monsoon, which favored that the highest maximum daytime temperatures
in the northwest. At the state level, Morelos recorded its warmest June, Puebla its second,
Querétaro and San Luis Potosí its third, Jalisco and Zacatecas its fourth and Baja California
Sur and Hidalgo its fifth warmest June since 1953.

Some communities in Morelos and Queretaro states have reported the lack in food and water
for livestock. Because rains delays, streams levels are too low, at this time of the year. Corn
producers of Queretaro reported delays in corn plantation; if rain delay continues, others
crops could suffer from water scarcity. In southern Coahuila, an area in severe drought (D2),
main impacts are observed in scarcity of candelilla and lechuguilla, two fiber plants; rain
delays has also affected the crops of self-consumption like corn and beans.