Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team

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Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Observing the distant solar
system with Subaru and the
New Horizons spacecraft
JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
THE KUIPER BELT AND PLANET
FORMATION
Constraints from orbits and surface properties

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Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Bannister et al. 2018

        1142 TNO orbits from the CFHT surveys (CFEPS, HiLat, OSSOS)

Orbital Distribution of the Kuiper belt
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL CANADA                                                3
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Bannister et al. 2018

        1142 TNO orbits from the CFHT surveys (CFEPS, HiLat, OSSOS)

Orbital Distribution of the Kuiper belt
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL CANADA                                                4
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
TNOs orbits probe epoch of planet formation in
the Outer Solar System

Blue Binaries (Fraser et al., 2018)              5
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Manset et al. 2019

Bimodality of the colour distribution exhibited
by 229 KBOs in the Colours for OSSOS project.
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
No red TNOs in the high-inclination
populations.

Inclination is a strong signature of
scattering.

Appears that the red-objects come from
a region of the solar system that did not
experience strong dynamical stirring.

       See talk by Pike tomorrow

                                            Manset et al. 2019
 Colour and Inclination are correlated
 among the TNOs
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Subaru and New Horizons – probing the TNOs

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Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
Launch : 19 January 2006  14th Anniversary
                                              9
Observing the distant solar system with Subaru and the New Horizons spacecraft - JJ Kavelaars - for the New Horizons science team
New Horizons Instruments

                      LORRI:    High-Resolution Panchromatic Imager:
                                Geology, Navigation, Searches for
                                Moons and Rings
                      Ralph:    Color Imager and Infrared Composition
                                Mapper
                      Alice:    Ultraviolet Spectral Imager:
                                Atmospheric Searches
                      REX:      Radio Science Experiment: Surface
                                Temperature and Radar Reflectivity
                      SWAP:     Low-Energy Charged Particle Detector:
                                Solar Wind Interaction
                      PEPSSI:   High-Energy Charged Particle
                                Detector: Search for Emitted Ions
                      SDC:      Dust Impact Detector

                                                 10
11
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MOVING INTO THE KUIPER BELT
Searching for a close encounter target

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The Kuiper belt in 1999 – planning an encounter
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2012 Search from Subaru
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2013 Search from Subaru
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2014 Search from Subaru
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About 130 m/sec available onboard for KBO
targeting

The closest KBO found from the ground would
required 220 m/sec ΔV to reach

Delta-V statistics suggest we are ~75% complete
to R~25.6

Required ΔVs for discovered objects (blue
histograms)

Prediction from models and based on achieved
depths (red curve).

Might have got there by now if small-number
statistics had been kinder…

  How Close were we in 2013?
                                                  18
Search with HST-ACS
160 orbits – 83 Fields – r < 27.5
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CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH ATTOKOTH
First ever resolved imaging of a TNO

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Approach imaging

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22

n et al., 2019
23

                         IR spectrum of integrated spectrum of 2014 MU69

                                                                           Ultim
                                                                           a
     December 31, 2018                                                     Thul
                                                                           e
NEW HORIZONS A SPACE CRUISING
OBSERVATORY
TNOs found during the encounter target search

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Journey to the Solar System’s Frontier
                                  25
New Horizons– a space cruising observatory
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From Lumme and Bowel (1981)

Shadow hiding at low phase and
surface roughness at moderate phase angles

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tant Kuiper Belt Objects (DKBO) Observ
                        Hot Classical (516977) 2012 HZ84

               0.9 AU                      0.6 AU             0.5 AU
               a = 29°                     a = 47°            a = 74°

                                       Anne Verbiscer
Susan Benecchi,
   Example     ofJ.Distant
                    J. Kavelaars,
                             TNOHarold   Weaver, John
                                   discovered           Spencer, Marc
                                                  by Subaru
ne Olkin, Joel Parker, Alan Stern, Leslie Young, Kelsi Singer, and the
   and observed by New          Horizons
                            Science Team at large phase

cience   Team
    NATIONAL      Meeting
             RESEARCH COUNCIL CANADA       Orlando, Florida             30
Verbiscer et al, 2019
 All phase   coefficients  (slopes)
2012 HZ84 shallow phase slope
                                    between
2011 HK103 shallow phase slope
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL CANADA                           31
Verbiscer et al, 2019
 All phase   coefficients   (slopes)
2011 HJ103 shallow phase slope.
                                     between
2011 JY31 steeper phase slope
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HC

                                   Verbiscer et al, 2019

Phase variation at low phase angle – small
sample with variation

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NEW HORIZONS OPPORTUNITY FOR
PARTNERSHIP
Continuing into the future.

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All systems functional: Power from RTG good.
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23 October 2019                                                                                                             All Systems Nominal – Green is Go!
         Legend                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Modes and States
                                                                                                                POWER
         Checked Out OK                                                                                                                                                                                                               COMMAND & DATA HANDLING
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3A-E
         Not Checked Out                                                                       SRU                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Power
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3A-N

                                                                                                                                                         Capacitor Bank
         Checked Out With Issue                                                                      Shunt Regulator                                                        INTEGRATED ELECTRONICS MODULE #1                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Switching
         Checkout Not Planned                                                            RTG                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Commands             3A-T            AS-EA

                                                                                                                                                            (33mF)
                                                                                                                                                                                            DC/DC Converter, IEM Digital                                                                   DC/DC Converter, Uplink/Downlink

                                                                                                                Majority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           AS-N

                                                                                                                                   Control
                                                                                                                & TLM
                                                                                                Drivers

                                                                                                                 Voter
                                                                                                 (15)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AS-T

                                                                                                                                     (3)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         C&DH (PCI Backplane)                                                                                                                                                                                     AS-SA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Uplink Rx CCD
                                              External                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     PS-N

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     C&DH Processor
                                                                                                                                                                                       G&C Processor
            PROPULSION                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1PPS
                                              Shunts

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Downlink Tx
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  PS-T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    REX, Reg. Range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cross

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Instrument
                                              Internal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     PS-H

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Interface
                               Fill/Vent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Strap #1
                                              Shunts                                              Obs. Power               Bus (30V +/- 1V)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SSR
                  GHe
                                                                                                                                   Mil Std 1553 Bus

                                                                                                                   TLM
                  N2H4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         RF COMMUNICATIONS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Diplexer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Switch
 Pressure P                      Fill/Drain
                                               PDU                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Network
 Transducer
                        Filter                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    HGA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1PPS

                                                                                                                                                                                                        BPA
                                                                                                                                                                           BPA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LNA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   I2C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cross

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               RS-422

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  RS-422
 Cat. Bed Temp       Orifice

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             RS-422

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 RS-422

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     RS-422
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Strap #2

                                                                                                     Command
 Sensors

                                                                                                                         CMD/TLM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LVDS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LVDS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LVDS
                                                     Current Limit

                                                                                                                                             Auxiliary
                                                                                                      Decoder
                                   Still                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EPC
                                                      Switching

                                                      (8 Slices)

 On All

                                                                                                                                               LVS
                                                                                                                          1553
                           P
                                                        Power

                                  working

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           INSTRUMENTS
 REAs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          USO                                                         TWTA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  RIO
                                    Latch                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MGA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         PEPSSI

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RALPH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (7)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LORRI
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ALICE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  SWAP
     T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         SDC
                                    Valves
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Hybrid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           TWTA
    A1                               B1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  USO
                                                                                                 Auxiliary                                                                                                        RIO                                                                                                                                                                                 EPC                                                           Aft
    A2                               B2         PDB                                                                                                                                                                (7)
                                                                                                Interfaces                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LGA
    A3                               B3          (2)                                                                                 GUIDANCE
                                                                                                                                     & CONTROL                                                                                           1PPS

                                                                                                                                                                          BPA

                                                                                                                                                                                                       BPA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Fwd

                                                                                                                                                                                                              I2C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cross                                                                                                                                                                                LNA
                                                Thruster Valve Drive, Cat. Bed Heaters

                            0.8 N ACS                                                                                                                                                                                                    Strap #1                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LGA
                                                                                                          Fine Sun
                            Thrusters                                                                                                          Star
                                                                                                          Sensors
                                                                                                                                             Tracker

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            REX, Reg. Range
    C1                               D1

                                                                                                                                                                                                              C&DH Processor
                                                                                                                                                                                G&C Processor
    C2                               D2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Instrument
                                                                                                                                               Star

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Downlink Tx
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Interface

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CCD Uplink Rx
    C3                               D3                                                                   Sun Pulse                          Tracker

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SSR
                                                                                                           Sensors                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    STRUCTURE

                                                                                                                                               IMU                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1PPS                       HARNESS
                                                                                               Component                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cross
                                                                                                 Power                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Strap #2
                           4.4 N V                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                FLIGHT SOFTWARE
                           Thrusters                                                           THERMAL                                         IMU                                                                                                       C&DH (PCI Backplane)                                                                                                                                                                          C&DH 4.2
                                                                                               CONTROL                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Power
     C4 D4 F1 F2                                                                                                                                                                      DC/DC Converter, IEM Digital                                                                         DC/DC Converter, Uplink/Downlink                                                                                                                             G&C 4.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Switching
                                                                                                Internal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Boot 3.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Commands
                                                                                                Heaters                                                                    INTEGRATED ELECTRONICS MODULE #2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Autonomy 16

    All System Go
      National Research Council of Canada                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           36
Sufficient resources for another flyby, if a target is identified.

       Propellant & Thruster Cycle Margin
                             Propellant Margin 9/30/2019                                                           Thruster Cycles Margin 9/30/2019
                                                                                Propellant
                                                                                                                                                          Thruster Cycles
                                                                                   (kg)

                                                                                                   End of KEM Thruster Cycle Limit = (Qual Limit on
         Usable propellant loaded at launch (Note 1)                             75.59
                                                                                                   D1/D3 + Qual Limit on B1/B3)
                                                                                                                                                            818,000

                                                                                                   Thruster cycles used as of 9/30/2019 = (Max of
         Propellant used as of 9/30/2019                                         62.79
                                                                                                   D1/D3+B1/B3 and 2*An/Cn) (Note 2)
                                                                                                                                                            617,276

         Usable propellant remaining as of 9/30/2019 = (75.59-                                     Thruster cycles remaining as of 9/30/2019 =
         62.79) ± 0.8 kg (Notes 1,2)
                                                                                 12.80
                                                                                                   (818000-617276)
                                                                                                                                                            200,724

                                                                                                   Thruster cycles budgeted for use after 9/30/2019
         Propellant budgeted for use after 9/30/2019 (Note 3)                     1.50
                                                                                                   (Note 3)
                                                                                                                                                              30,473

         Predicted usable propellant remaining at end of KEM =                                     Predicted usable thruster cycles at end of KEM =
         (12.80-1.5) ± 0.8 kg
                                                                                 11.30
                                                                                                   (200724-30473)
                                                                                                                                                            170,251

         Margin = (12.80-1.5)/12.80                                              88%               Margin = (200724-30473)/200724                             85%
                                      (1) Includes the additional 700 g due to new expulsion efficiency estimate approved by A. Stern on 4/25/2019
                                                                    (2) From Weekly Status Report dated 10/1/2019
                                                                 (3) From MOL v55.2 and planned Mission Operations

23 October 2019                                                New Horizons Science Team Meeting                                                     37
Proposed 2012 Search Area using HSC
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL CANADA      38
Subaru and New Horizons – probing the TNOs

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2021 search using Subaru - HSC
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THANK YOU
JJ Kavelaars • New Horizons Co-Investigator • JJ.Kavelaars@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
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