OUTLOOK 2021 Ryan Manchee, VP, Media Innovations + Technology Noor Naseer, Sr Director, Media Innovations + Technology
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2021 OUTLOOK Ryan Manchee, VP, Media Innovations + Technology Noor Naseer, Sr Director, Media Innovations + Technology
Today’s Speakers
Ryan Manchee
Vice President
Media Innovations + Technology
Noor Naseer
Senior Director
Media Innovations + Technology
+ 2020 Reflections
WHAT + 2021 Outlook: Accelerate
WE’LL + All in on Advanced TV
COVER + Amped up on Audio
TODAY + Social Maturity
+ Finding Identity
+ Takeaways + Q&A
2020 WAS… VERY VIRTUAL
30x
GROWTH IN
VIDEO CONFERENCING
ZOOM USAGE
(MAUs, millions)
300
10
2019 2020
Source: Census Bureau
From WFH to LFH 93% OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN ENGAGED IN E-LEARNING Source: Census Bureau
LIMITED SPORTS LED TO A
(RE)DISCOVERY OTHER
FORMS OF ENTERTAINMENT
ONLINE GAMING
E-SPORTS
VIRTUAL CONCERTS
12.3mm
HOME ENTERTAINMENT HIT NEW LEVELS 20% STREAMING DIGITAL VIDEO + OVER 2 HOURS DAILY
IMPACT ON ADVERTISING TRENDS FOR 2021
MEDIA SPEND DROPPED 4% IN 2020
BUT GOOD GROWTH PROJECTED IN 2021
U.S. Total Ad Spending, 2019-2023
Billions, % change
$350.00 100.0%
$318.07
$300.00
$295.39
$269.48 80.0%
$250.00 $242.19 $232.30
60.0%
$200.00
Billions
40.0%
$150.00
20.0%
$100.00
16.0%
7.2% 9.6% 7.7% 0.0%
$50.00
-4.1%
$0.00 -20.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: eMarketerDIGITAL EXPECTED TO GROW 20% IN 2021,
TO ACCOUNT FOR A GROWING SHARE OF SPEND
U.S. Digital Ad Spending, 2019-2023
Billions, % of total ad spending
$250.00 120.0%
$221.18
$200.00
$197.05 100.0%
$171.20
80.0%
$150.00 $142.39
$132.46
69.5%
Billions
66.7% 60.0%
61.3% 63.5%
$100.00 54.7%
40.0%
$50.00
20.0%
$0.00 0.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: eMarketer,CTV LEADS DIGITAL AD SPEND GROWTH
Digital sources driving growth of ad spend in 2021
Connected TV Video Mobile
+40% +26% +22%
Search Display Email
+20% +17% +10%ADVANCED TV ACCELERATES
QUARANTINE ESCAPISM
OTT VIDEO VIEWER FORECAST
(MILLIONS)
222
218.3
214.3
207.5 209.9
210.4
207.1
203.3
198.8
192.7
170.5 183.4
153.3
138.8
122.9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024STREAMING WARS START
LEANING TOWARDS AVOD
SVOD AVOD
(SUBSCRIPTION) (AD-SUPPORTED)/HYBRID
73M 40M 25M 10M 24M
24M 46M 37M
33M 34M
2.5M 25M 3MLINEAR TV: PROJECTIONS VS REALITY
PROJECTIONS REVISED OUTLOOK
2014 2023 2021
23% 15%
38% 13%
62%
77% 72%
Source: eMarketerCTV VIEWING OCCURRING AT EVERY AGE
Connected TV Viewers
(millions)
Younger audiences
Baby Boomers 33.1 are more likely to be
CTV viewers, but
Gen X 48.9 older demographics
are catching up.
Millennials 58.2
Gen Z 47.8ADVANCED TV TAKEAWAYS Content and consumption is growing at accelerated rates Testing potential for sight + sound audiences is now Scalable, quality audiences are available, improved measurement on the horizon
AUDIO ACCELERATES
TURN IT UP
Time Spent with Digital Audio
(minutes)
89.4 86.6, UP FROM 81.6
82.4 81.6 86.5
74.5 6.1% INCREASE IN TIME
DRIVEN BY PODCASTS
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022108% INCREASE IN PODCAST LISTENING OVER 2019
BIG ON PODCASTS
Podcast Ad Spending
(billions)
$1.51
$1.68 500+% YOY
$1.28 BASIS AUDIO
$.91
$.71
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
¼ OF 2021 DIGITAL AUDIO AD SPEND = PODCASTSAUDIO TAKEAWAYS Time spent and ad spend on audio continues to increase Platforms are betting big through acquisitions of both content + tech Podcasts = biggest growth
SOCIAL ACCELERATES
STAY AT HOME, BUT BE SOCIAL
and Tiktok
MAU Growth Across Social Platforms
Last Year TikTok Saw:
85% jump in users
Surpassed Twitter
Gaining ground on
Snapchat & Pinterest
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023TIKTOK FOR THE AGES
21.5 hours a month (compared to Facebook at 17.7)
21.5
17.7CONTENT CREATION EVOLUTION
Increased reliance on UGC
Brand vs “Fan” content
Less polished = more authentic?
92% of consumers trust organic UGC more
than they trust traditional advertising
Img Source: LumeCube, NielsenSOCIAL TAKEAWAYS Explore each platform’s owned, earned, and paid opportunities Video is a requirement Discover the audiences available and what performance looks like
IDENTITY ACCELERATES
THE FUTURE OF IDENTIFIERS LOSS OF THIRD REDUCTION IN EROSION OF GROWTH OF PARTY COOKIES PROBABILISTIC IDS MOBILE IDS REGULATION Most third party Significant reduction IDFA and AAID lack • GDPR cookies to be in ad signals (i.e. cohesion with unavailable by end fingerprinting) cookie support • CCPA of this year • CPRA
USERS GAIN MORE CONTROL
OVER PERSONAL DATA
Before: Transparency Now: Choice & ControlFORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE CPRA to take effect in January 2023 Businesses will need to create user opt-out forms Increased penalties for the forbidden use or sharing of data State laws make way for federal ones Acceptable alternative ID solution still to come
A REVISED RANGE OF ADDRESSABILITY Source: IAB Tech Lab
IDENTITY TAKEAWAYS Consumer expectations and understanding of privacy rights grow Advertisers must note impact on their data usage and collection Increased emphasis on 1st Party Data and revised 3rd party solutions
OUTLOOK 2021 + Plan to test and shift bigger budgets into CTV + Look to audio to extend reach and invest in podcasts + Enhance your video strategy and look to new audiences across social + State of identity requires alternative solution development and continued education now, stricter laws to come
QUESTIONS? THANK YOU!
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