Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse

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Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse
Overview
Further material available at
www.BankofIrelandEconomicPulse.com

                                     June 2021
Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse
”Firms in all regions sounded a more positive note about the current business
                                                                                                              environment in June.”
 June 2021                                                                                                                            Dr Loretta O’Sullivan,
                                                                                                                      Group Chief Economist, Bank of Ireland

The Bank of Ireland Regional Pulses      KEY POINTS                     REGIONAL PULSES
bring together the views of                                              Three Month Moving Averages
households and firms around the
country. The results for June 2021
(3 month moving average basis) show
that sentiment was up on the month       •   Regional Pulses up in             Dublin            Rest of Leinster                 Munster              Connacht/Ulster
across the board.                            June                              Pulse                  Pulse                        Pulse                   Pulse

The vaccination roll-out has done        •   House price and rent
much to bolster confidence among             expectations in
consumers and businesses over the
                                             positive territory
                                                                               88.5                    87.8                       87.3                        89.9
last couple of months, and with public
health restrictions eased further in
recent weeks and the re-opening of       •   Firms cheerier about
                                                                            +4.5 on previous       +8.2 on previous            +4.5 on previous            +4.0 on previous
the economy becoming embedded,               the here and now                index reading          index reading               index reading               index reading
the Dublin, Rest of Leinster, Munster
and Connacht/Ulster Pulses are
now back above their pre-pandemic
levels.

                                                                                                       Rest of Leinster refers to Leinster excluding Dublin. Ulster only refers to
                                                                                                       Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan.
Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse
June 2021

       GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION              Past 12 Months   HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION            Past 12 Months

                          1%     2%     1%        1%                                6%     5%     4%      5%
                          6%     6%     6%        8%                                18%    14%    12%     19%

                          7%     8%     9%       13%                                52%    59%    61%     58%

                          40%    40%    39%      30%                                15%    16%    16%     12%
                          43%    43%    42%      44%                                8%     4%     6%      7%

                          -58%   -58%   -58%     -53%                               0%     0%     -4%     +2%
       Change on                                                 Change on          +2
                           +3     -1     +2       +6                                        -3     -8      -5
       previous reading                                          previous reading

       GENERAL ECONOMIC SITUATION              Next 12 Months   HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION            Next 12 Months

                          17%    15%    10%      16%                                11%    6%     6%      7%
                          40%    39%    41%      38%                                26%    27%    23%     27%
                          8%     13%    12%      14%                                50%    55%    58%     51%
                          19%    14%    17%      16%                                10%    9%     8%      8%
                          14%    16%    19%      14%                                2%     1%     3%      3%
                          +13%   +12%   +3%      +13%                               +17%   +14%   +11%   +14%
       Change on          +2      -3    -13       +9             Change on          +1                    +7
                                                                                           -2      0
       previous reading                                          previous reading
Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse
June 2021

House Price and Rents Expectations
DUBLIN                            REST OF LEINSTER                 MUNSTER                           CONNACHT/ULSTER
Next 12 Months                    Next 12 Months                   Next 12 Months                    Next 12 Months

 > 5%                43%    35%   > 5%                34%    28%    > 5%                39%    35%    > 5%                39%    34%
 1% - 5%             42%    37%   1% - 5%             44%    41%    1% - 5%             44%    46%    1% - 5%             37%    42%

 Stay more or                     Stay more or                      Stay more or                      Stay more or
                     10%    20%   less the same       16%    25%                        11%    16%                        19%    20%
 less the same                                                      less the same                     less the same

 1% - 5%              2%     4%   1% - 5%              1%     2%    1% - 5%              2%     0%    1% - 5%              2%     1%
 > 5%                2%     1%    > 5%                 1%    1%     > 5%                2%     1%     > 5%                0%     0%

 Balance            +61%   +51%   Balance            +54%   +46%    Balance            +59%   +56%    Balance            +56%   +54%
 Change on            +8    +11   Change on            -3     -1    Change on            +8    +17    Change on            +4   +10
 previous reading                 previous reading                  previous reading                  previous reading
Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse
June 2021

BUSINESS ACTIVITY                        BUSINESS ACTIVITY                        JOBS                                     JOBS
Past 3 Months                            Next 3 Months                            Past 3 Months                            Next 3 Months
                             Change on                                Change on                                Change on                                Change on
                              previous                                 previous                                 previous                                 previous
                   Balance    reading                       Balance    reading
                                                                                                     Balance    reading                       Balance    reading

Dublin             +20%        +25       Dublin             +48%         -5       Dublin              +8%         +5       Dublin             +20%         -2

Rest of Leinster   +29%        +22       Rest of Leinster   +49%         -9       Rest of Leinster    +9%        +10       Rest of Leinster   +21%         -3

Munster            +19%        +12       Munster            +48%        -11       Munster             +4%         +2       Munster            +16%         -7

Connacht/Ulster    +17%        +11       Connacht/Ulster    +42%        -17       Connacht/Ulster    +11%         +7       Connacht/Ulster    +19%         -7
Overview - June 2021 - Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse
THE ECONOMIC PULSE                                                                      GATHERING THE DATA                                                           USING THE                                                                          THE EU DIMENSION
                                                                                                                                                                         INFORMATION
    Bank of Ireland’s new economic                                                          Ipsos MRBI are undertaking the                                                                                                                                  Bank of Ireland is partnering with
    indicator for Ireland – the Economic                                                    fieldwork for the surveys on                                                                                                                                    the European Commission on the
                                                                                                                                                                         Business and consumer surveys                                                      surveys. The data collected feed
    Pulse – is based on a series of                                                         behalf of Bank of Ireland. A best
                                                                                                                                                                         provide essential information for                                                  into the Joint Harmonised EU
    surveys. Each month households and                                                      practice approach to data
                                                                                                                                                                         economic surveillance, short-                                                      Programme of Business and
    firms are asked for their views on a                                                    collection and methodology has
                                                                                                                                                                         term forecasting and research.                                                     Consumer Surveys. This is a
    wide range of topics including the                                                      been adopted within a
    economy, their financial situation,                                                     harmonised EU framework.                                                     They are also useful for                                                           Europe-wide sentiment study
    spending plans, house price                                                                                                                                          policymakers, as well as helping                                                   which has been running since the
                                                                                            1000 households, 300 firms in                                                                                                                                   1960s. The data generated within
    expectations, business activity and                                                                                                                                  firms with business planning.
                                                                                            industry, 500 services firms,                                                                                                                                   this framework are particularly
    hiring intentions. Key business
                                                                                            350 retailers and 200                                                        Survey data are a key                                                              useful for monitoring economic
    sectors such as industry, services,
                                                                                            construction firms participate in                                            complement to official statistics,                                                 developments at EU and Euro area
    retail and construction are covered,
                                                                                            the surveys each month.                                                      with high frequency and                                                            level and also allow the situation
    as well as regions. The information
                                                                                                                                                                         timeliness among their main                                                        in Ireland to be compared with
    gathered is combined into high level
                                                                                                                                                                         qualities.                                                                         that of other Member States.
    indices, with responses to individual
    questions also provided along with
    analysis and insights.

                                                                                                          Contact us at                                        Dr Loretta O’Sullivan,                         Conn Creedon,                             Patrick Mullane,                          Mark Leech,
                                                                                                                                                               Group Chief Economist,                         Senior Economist,                         Senior Economist,                         Media Relations Manager,
                                                                                                          EconomicPulse@boi.com                                +353 (0) 766 244 267                           +353 (0) 766 235 134                      +353 (0) 766 244 269                      +353 (0) 766 234 773

Note: Balances are calculated as the difference between positive and negative responses (using weighted averages for questions with multiple options).
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by the Economic Research Unit at The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland (“BOI”) for information purposes only and BOI is not soliciting any action based upon it. BOI believes any information contained herein to be accurate but does not warrant its accuracy and
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