Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor

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Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
Issue 51 – June 2019              www.masterinvestor.co.uk

The UK's no.1 free investment publication

investing in the age of

populism
plus...
bitcoin
BACK FROM THE DEAD?

Sainsbury's
WORTH PUTTING IN YOUR BASKET?

Small is beautiful
OUR PICK OF THE SMALL CAP FUNDS

Bubbles, crashes and panics
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THEM?
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
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Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
WELCOME
                                  Dear Reader,

                                  The month of May has been something of a whirl-
                                  wind – at least as far as UK politics is concerned. The
                                  long-awaited resignation speech of Theresa May was
                                  delivered just as Nigel Farage's Brexit Party came from
                                  nowhere to storm to victory in the European Parlia-
                                  mentary elections.

                          No doubt the result reflected voters' disillusionment
with the lack of progress on Brexit, but it also demonstrated the depth of antip-
athy towards 'conventional' politicians and the establishment at large. As Victor
Hill explains in this month's cover feature (page 10), this populist surge is an
important development and one that investors must keep an eye on, especially
as it seems to be an international phenomenon.
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Meanwhile, Donald Trump has upped the ante in the trade war with China, which                                          amanda@masterinvestor.co.uk
hangs over the global markets like the Sword of Damocles. Up until now, the mar-
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kets have remained relatively sanguine about this spat. But the longer this goes
                                                                                                                       james.faulkner@masterinvestor.co.uk
on the more likely it is to develop into something more sinister. You can hear
more about this topic in my upcoming podcast with Henderson Far East Income
manager Mike Kerley – sign up HERE via Apple Podcasts or Spotify to make sure
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The event is scheduled for 27 June at 18:00 and will be held at the offices of DAC
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Master Investor Ltd.                  Editorial Contributors   Mark Watson-        Disclaimer
Unit 2, The IO Centre                 Filipe R. Costa          Mitchell            Material contained within the Master Investor Magazine and its website is for general information
Salbrook Industrial Estate                                                         purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making (or refraining
                                      Job Curtis                                   from making) any specific investment decision. Master Investor Magazine Ltd. does not accept any
Salbrook Road                         Richard Gill, CFA        cover photo         liability for any loss suffered by any user as a result of any such decision. Please note that the prices
Salfords                              Victor Hill                                  of shares, spreadbets and CFDs can rise and fall sharply and you may not get back the money you
                                                               Twocoms /           originally invested, particularly where these investments are leveraged. Smaller companies with a
Redhill                               David Jones              Shutterstock.com    short track record tend to be more risky than larger, well established companies. The investments
RH1 5GJ                               John Kingham                                 and services mentioned in this publication will not be suitable for all readers. You should assess the
United Kingdom                                                                     suitability of the recommendations (implicit or otherwise), investments and services mentioned in
                                      Andrew Latto
                                                                                   this magazine, and the related website, to your own circumstances. If you have any doubts about
                                      Jim Mellon                                   the suitability of any investment or service, you should take appropriate professional advice. The
Editorial                             Tim Price                                    views and recommendations in this publication are based on information from a variety of sources.
Editorial Director James Faulkner     Robert Stephens, CFA                         Although these are believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the
                                                                                   information herein. As a matter of policy, Master Investor Magazine openly discloses that our contrib-
Creative Director Alexandra Mueller   Nick Sudbury                                 utors may have interests in investments and/or providers of services referred to in this publication.

  www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 | 3
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
CONTENTS
       Issue 51 – June 2019              www.masterinvestor.co.uk

                                                                     ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019
       The UK's no.1 free investment publication

       investing in the age of

       populism                                                        CoVER FEATURE
       plus...
       bitcoin
                                                                    010      The triumph of populism: What it means for investors
       BACK FROM THE DEAD?
                                                                    Regardless of the outcome of Britain's private nightmare over Brexit, Europe is
       Sainsbury's
       WORTH PUTTING IN YOUR BASKET?
                                                                    likely to become increasingly divided in the near-term. As Victor Hill reveals, this
       Small is beautiful
       OUR PICK OF THE SMALL CAP FUNDS                              has major implications for investors…
       Bubbles, crashes and panics
       WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THEM?

  on the cover
020         Portfolio Intelligence –
            Market bubbles,
            crashes, panics and
            crises: What do we learn
            from them?

Awareness of previous market events
helps investors avoid the worst ex-
cesses. Mark Watson-Mitchell takes us
on a whirlwind tour of history.                                                                                              1000 Words / Shutterstock.com

038         The Macro Investor –
            Small is beautiful: A                                     All other topics
            small caps strategy to
            reap long-term benefits

Investing in small caps can be very
                                                                    006      Mellon on the Markets

rewarding over the long term. Filipe                                Inside the mind of the Master Investor: Influential British investor Jim Mellon reveals
R. Costa looks at some of the most                                  his latest thoughts on the markets.
effective ways to get exposure to this
exciting market.
                                                                    028      From Acorns to Oak Trees – Top tech tips

                                                                    Small cap guru Richard Gill, CFA, takes a look at three small cap technology companies
058         Dividend Hunter – Is
            Sainsbury's worth its
                                                                    which he believes could go on to deliver strong returns for investors over the coming
                                                                    years.
            heavily discounted
            price?

With Sainsbury's shares trading at
their lowest in 25 years, John Kingham
investigates whether they are worthy of
investors' attention.

064         Forensic Forex – Bitcoin
            is back from the dead

The recovery over recent months
makes Bitcoin an interesting market to
watch once more, argues David Jones.

4 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
034      How we achieved 52 years of dividend growth –
         PARTNER CONTENT
                                                                                          082     Book Review – Your
                                                                                                  Retirement Salary

City of London Investment Trust manager Job Curtis explains how he uses revenue           Richard Gill, CFA, reviews Your
reserves to smooth dividend payments over time.                                           Retirement Salary, a book that's
                                                                                          essential reading for those looking to
                                                                                          make the most of their pension pot in

046      Chart Navigator – All you need to know about charting                            retirement.

So many traders try to bet against the trend and get burned. In this piece, charts guru
David Jones explains why it's important to put yourself on the right side of sentiment.

052      Funds & Trusts in Focus – The best small cap funds and
         investment trusts

It's a very exciting time to invest in smaller companies, and Nick Sudbury has picked
                                                                                          086     The Final Word –
                                                                                                  How to beat the
out some of the funds and trusts that can give investors ready-made exposure.                     professionals

                                                                                          Fund manager Tim Price explains

068      Quality Investor – Blue Whale's top ten                                          the surprisingly powerful advantages
                                                                                          private investors have over the insti-
Backed by Peter Hargreaves of Hargreaves Lansdown fame, the Blue Whale Growth             tutions when it comes to managing
Fund is a top-performing fund that focuses on high-quality conviction plays. Andrew       money and generating a return.
Latto looks at the portfolio in more detail.

                                                                                          092     Investor Events Diary

                                                                                          All the hottest upcoming investor
                                                                                          events in June and beyond.
078      Stocks in Focus – Unilever: A quality stock with a
         winning formula

With innovation and sustainability at the core of its strategy, Robert Stephens, CFA,     094     Markets in Focus

argues that Unilever has a winning formula that could continue to drive strong returns.   Market data for the month of May.

   www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 | 5
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
BY JIM MELLON

            mellon on
           the markets
     Inside the mind of the Master Investor: Influential British investor Jim Mellon reveals his
     latest thoughts on the markets.

     I've just been in the US, speaking at     Brexit really doesn't matter much in       (overvalued) and the euro (fragile,
     the spectacular Mauldin Economics         my view – though it is an awful dis-       with the fracture index rising).
     conference where I had the pleas-         traction – and the longer it takes,
     ure of listening to George W Bush         probably the better as a hard Brexit       There isn't much value in the world
     in conversation with Kyle Bass. The       is probably now well anticipated and       today, but British shares with divi-
     ex-President could give British poli-     prepared for by what is still a very       dend yields of over 4% make emi-
     ticians lessons in self-deprecation,      good civil service. The European Par-      nent sense, especially with the in-
     charm, decisiveness and compro-           liament will be an interesting place       ternational spread of business that
     mise. Lessons much needed.                though, with a band of committed           many UK companies have.
                                               dissidents from the UK, Italy, France
     But, despite all the noise, angst and     and Hungary, amongst others liven-         British shares make
     bitterness, the UK economy, flexible      ing what is otherwise the dullest par-     "eminent sense" at these
     as it is, continues to defy the predic-   liament in the world.                      prices
     tions of the pre-referendum wor-
     thies who suggested we would all be       Jeremy Corbyn does matter, however,        When gilts and other major economy
     ferreting around in rubbish bins by       as Victor Hill has eloquently written in   bonds yield so little, why wouldn't
     now. Three years of continued eco-        these pages. But I am guessing that        you buy the shares of genuine, blue
     nomic growth, subdued, but better         the chances of him getting in remain       chip and well-run companies like BP
     than our supposedly blessed Euro-         very low. And that's why I am a big        (LON:BP.), Shell (LON:RDSA), Lloyds
     pean major neighbours.                    buyer of sterling against the dollar       (LON:LLOY), HSBC (LON:HSBA), GSK

       Bjoern Wylezich / Shutterstock.com                Hadrian / Shutterstock.com                Ink Drop / Shutterstock.com

6 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
MELLON ON THE MARKETS

                                                           “THERE ISN’T MUCH
                                                           VALUE IN THE WORLD
                                                           TODAY, BUT BRITISH
                                                          SHARES WITH DIVIDEND
                                                            YIELDS OF OVER 4%
                                                          MAKE EMINENT SENSE.”

www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 | 7
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
MELLON ON THE MARKETS
 (LON:GSK), BAE Systems (LON:BA.),          gets acquired. The cars might be nice,       me. I'm off to Oxford University for the
 and even, despite or perhaps because       but so were De Loreans!                      whole of the remainder of the week, to
 of, the recent dividend cut, Vodafone                                                   be educated by an array of professors in
 (LON:VOD)?                                 The fact is, every car manufacturer of       the wonders of molecular biology, along
                                            note will have electric cars soon, and       with 12 others, mostly investors in Juve-
 I came into some money recently, and I     most know how to produce and deliver         nescence, our longevity company.
 am doing just that. Lock away and for-     automobiles better than Tesla does.
 get. There are funds that can do that      Tesla is overpriced, over indebted,
 for you, at modest cost, good exam-        and heading for the rocks. I would
 ples being iShares, Fidelity Funds and     stay short, at least till $100 per share,
 Netwealth and if you don't want to do      at which point Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
 the work of selecting individual shares    might buy them for loose change.
 yourself, I would go that route.
                                            UK property
 In contrast to the UK market, I think
 the US market is distinctly overvalued,    Regular readers will also know that I
 and the rush to the exits by early back-   have been bearish on UK property for
 ers of Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), Uber         some time, with a few regional excep-
 (NYSE:UBER), Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) –          tions. London has been battered par-
 and lining up on the runway, Airbnb        ticularly hard, with prices in prime ar-
 and We (the owner of We Work) – is         eas back to their pre-2011 levels. With
 illustrative that the smart money be-      many tower blocks on the market or
 lieves that now is the time to cash in.    about to come on the market, there is                 mikecphoto / Shutterstock.com
                                            no screaming reason to get involved
                                            in the residential property market (of-      We are dining in hall, and having drinks
                                            fices remain strong).                        with the Provost, as well as revisiting
 “WE ARE CONTINUING                                                                      the pub where I spent many a happy
    TO LOOK AT UK                           But, if you were thinking of buying          hour in my long-lost youth. The one
  REITS (REAL ESTATE                        somewhere in London, what with the           thing we are not doing is staying in the
                                            pound down and prices at multi-year          college; my taste for student accom-
     INVESTMENT                             lows, putting a few low-ball offers in       modation was lost a long time ago, and
     TRUSTS) AS A                           might not be such a bad idea, espe-          I can't see it returning any time soon.
  SOURCE OF REGULAR                         cially if the property is for less than      We have one night off, when some of
                                            £2 million, where the Osborne stamp          ours are heading to London's O2 for
     DIVIDENDS.”
                                            duties become punitive. Those stamp          a concert by Mark Knopfler, of Dire
                                            duty rises have proved, as do all usu-       Straits fame. Remember the "money
                                            rious tax rises, to be counter-produc-       for nothing" song?
 They might just be a little late though.   tive and have really dampened activity.
 Uber and Lyft are down from their of-      Poor estate agents! Meantime, we are         Well, as all readers of Master Investor
 fering prices, and the usual suspects      continuing to look at UK REITS (real es-     know, there is sadly no such monetary
 who backed these companies are             tate investment trusts) as a source of       manna available to those who aren't cu-
 locked in typically for six months post    regular dividends, with many selling at      rious, adaptable and apply themselves
 IPO. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is now            significant discounts to NAV.                to the serious business of investing.
 showing followers of cults that these
 are not a one-way street. Even long-       At time of writing, I am in my house in      Keep some gold, stay cautious, but con-
 term bulls are now turning their backs     Spain, where the weather has been un-        sider nibbling at those British stocks!
 on the electric car maker. In my opin-     characteristically chilly for this time of
 ion (and Tesla was a no. 1 short pick of   the year. In fact, we have a fire going,     Happy Hunting!
 mine at Master Investor) the best that     which I think for late May is a first. But
 can happen to this company is that it      in an hour or so, it's back to work for      Jim Mellon

    About Jim

    Jim is an entrepreneur with a flair for identifying emerging global trends enabling him to build a worldwide business
    empire. He is amongst the top 10% in the "Sunday Times Rich List" (Britain's equivalent to the Forbes list). He is often
    described as the British Warren Buffett and he predicted the Credit Crunch of 2007-08 in a book entitled Wake Up!
    Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil. Jim followed this with The Top 10 Investments for the Next 10 Years
    (2008) and subsequently Cracking the Code (2012), Fast Forward (2014) and, most recently, Juvenescence (2017). His
    monthly "Mellon on the Markets" column in Master Investor Magazine has gained him cult status among investors.
    He holds a master's degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from Oxford University. He is on the Board of Trus-
    tees of the Buck Institute in California, a trustee of the Biogerontology Institute, and a Fellow of Oriel College, Oxford.

8 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
SAVE T
                                        HE
                                  DATE
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INVESTING IN THE
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Populism plus - investing in the age of - Master Investor
BY VICTOR HILL

                                                   cover feature

     The triumph of
       populism
              What it means for investors
     Regardless of the outcome of Britain's private nightmare over Brexit, Europe is likely to
     become increasingly divided in the near-term. As Victor Hill reveals, this has major impli-
     cations for investors…

     "Populism" is on the march in all ad-    the discontented white middle class      spending will drive higher taxes - and
     vanced democracies. Last month's         which will soon fizzle out – or has      higher interest rates too. Investors
     elections for the European parlia-       something very profound happened         need to be aware that something is
     ment produced a record populist          to the shape of politics in the West?    afoot of fundamental importance.
     vote across the European Union. In       Will anything really change?
     the United States, President Trump                                                Europe votes
     is often regarded as a populist who      I can't answer all those questions
     was able to hijack the traditionally     definitively here now – but I can of-    Between 23 and 26 May, 400 million
     conservative Republican Party.           fer some ideas about what investors      registered voters went to the polls in
                                              should make of it all. One aspect of     28 EU countries to elect 751 MEPs. Not
     But what is populism and why does        populism is a reaction against the       as many voters as in India, which also
     it exist? What do populists want?        perceived austerity imposed by gov-      concluded its general election on 23
     Why is the political establishment so    ernments after the financial crisis of   May. The turnout was actually above
     afraid of populism? And what are the     2008-09 and the subsequent Euro-         the historic average of the last 40
     economic consequences of the rise        pean sovereign debt crisis (2010-12).    years (European elections have taken
     of populism? Is this just a protest by   A return to higher levels of public      place every five years since 1979).

      “A RETURN TO HIGHER LEVELS OF PUBLIC SPENDING WILL
     DRIVE HIGHER TAXES – AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES TOO.
     INVESTORS NEED TO BE AWARE THAT SOMETHING IS AFOOT
                OF FUNDAMENTAL IMPORTANCE.”

10 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
COVER FEATURE

     “THE FACT THAT
         THE BREXIT
       PARTY TOPPED
     THE POLLS IN THE
       UK EUROPEAN
        ELECTIONS IS
       OF ENORMOUS
      SIGNIFICANCE.”
                                                                                          Twocoms / Shutterstock.com

www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 | 11
COVER FEATURE
 Members of the European Parliament           Minister resigned – even though the re-       July) will have to factor into his or her
 are responsible for signing off the EU's     sults had not yet been declared.              game plan.
 €145 billion annual budget. They ap-
 prove international treaties and trade       The Brexit Party topped the polls in the      The centrist Europhile parties that have
 deals entered into by the EU and (tech-      UK with 32 percent of the vote, which         enjoyed a comfortable majority in the
 nically) appoint EU commissioners and        secured it 27 out of 72 seats. The Tories     European parliament for 40 years are
 the ECB president. But, in practise, the     gained a historically dreadful 9 percent      now less dominant. At least 171 MEPs
 European Parliament, which sits in both      of the vote with just three seats. UKIP       were returned for populist or Euros-
 Brussels and Strasbourg, does not ini-       got 4 percent. Given Boris Johnson's          ceptic parties. The centre-right Euro-
 tiate legislation as national parliaments    popularity amongst the Tory grass             pean People's Party (EPP) grouping will
 do – though the last European parlia-        roots, a third to a half of the Tory vote     have 173 MEPs (down by 48) and the
 ment voted on more than 700 meas-            would support no-deal. Therefore, only        centre-left Socialists and Democrats
 ures. This opens it up to the accusation     about 40 percent of the UK electorate         (S&D) will have 147 seats (down by
 that it is just a rubber stamp for the Eu-   would support a no-deal or WTO Brexit         44). The Europhile European Liberals
 ropean Commission and Council.               on 31 October. This is something that         grouping (of which President Macron's
                                              the next Prime Minister (who at time of       Renaissance Party forms part) will
 Why was this round of European elec-         writing is likely to be installed in early    have a further 102 seats. The Greens
 tions so significant? Firstly, the entire
 Commission and its President will be
 replaced in November (so its auf Wied-
 ersehen, Herr Juncker). So will the Pres-
 ident of the ECB (arrivederci, Signor
 Draghi). Moreover, the new budget
 round will be adversely affected by
 Brexit (assuming it happens) and Presi-
 dent Macron is pushing for fundamen-
 tal reform of European institutions
 once the Anglo-Saxons are out. Such
 reforms will impact key issues such
 as trade, immigration, single market
 regulation, energy policy and climate
 change.

 Populist parties are either already in-
 cluded in, or support, 11 governments                                                     Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com
 out of 28 across the EU. In Germany,
 the two leading centrist parties in the
 coalition are struggling to maintain
 support, with Frau Merkel on the way
                                                “THE CENTRIST EUROPHILE PARTIES THAT
 out. This makes the present German            HAVE ENJOYED A COMFORTABLE MAJORITY IN
 government susceptible to pressure             THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT FOR 40 YEARS
 from the anti-immigrant populist Alter-
                                                      ARE NOW LESS DOMINANT.”
 native für Deutschland (AfD), which took
 10 percent of the German vote in the
 European elections – though just half
 of the Green vote.

 In Britain, the elections were seen by
 many as a second referendum on EU
 membership (though less than 40 per-
 cent of the electorate voted). The day
 before Britons went to the polls the lat-
 est iteration of Mrs May's cunning plan
 was trashed by her own cabinet and
 the supposition was that her premier-
 ship was doomed. With a Tory leader-
 ship contest in play on the day of the
 election, the expected fork in the road
 was a choice between no-deal (WTO)
 and no-Brexit (rescind Article 50). This
 gave voters a stark choice between two
 courses both devilled by risk. The day
 after the elections in the UK the Prime                                                                Ink Drop / Shutterstock.com

12 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
COVER FEATURE
                                                                                        good and the great (as the British estab-
                                                                                        lishment used to be called) have their
  The UK: the Brexit Party                 Indian election campaign). The par-
                                                                                        best interests at heart and feel that the
  triumphs                                 ty's candidates were drawn from a
                                           wide political spectrum and range            liberal elite is oblivious of, for example,
                                           from the former Tory minister (and           the impact of immigration on indige-
  Nigel Farage explained to the Sun-
                                           Strictly competitor) Anne Wide-              nous working-class communities. The
  day Telegraphi before the European
                                           combe to Claire Fox, an ex-mem-              elites, in turn, regard the populists as
  elections that he had been inspired
                                           ber of the Revolutionary Commu-              distasteful bigots – not at all the sort of
  to form the party by Italy's Five Star
                                           nist Party.                                  people they would invite to their din-
  Movement (Cinque Stelle), which
                                                                                        ner parties.
  started as a protest party but which
  came to power in Rome in May 2018.       The fact that the Brexit Party topped
                                           the polls in the UK European elec-           They do so at their peril – because the
  Mr Farage has been a member of
                                           tions is of enormous significance.           political terrain has already moved
  the European Parliament for more
                                           It shows that a large number of UK           beneath the feet of the ruling classes
  than 20 years, so whatever you may
                                           voters support the no-deal (WTO)             much in the way that it did in the age
  think about him as a man he knows
                                           Brexit at which Mrs May balked back          of revolutions in the mid-19th century.
  a lot about how the EU works. Mr
                                           in March. On the morrow of the               What is so interesting from my point of
  Farage resigned from UKIP, the party
                                           European elections, Mr Farage sug-           view as a macro analyst, is that there
  he helped to found 26 year ago and
                                           gested that the Brexit Party could           is a clear discernible trend here both
  which he led for many years, in De-
                                           contest a UK general election, if one        across Europe and North America. But
  cember 2018. He insists that there is
                                           were to take place this year. To do so       if the populist phenomenon is surpris-
  "no comparison" between UKIP and
                                           it would have to develop a full spec-        ingly uniform in the west, the next dec-
  the Brexit Party.
                                           trum of policies. This would subject         ade will be one when China is poised
                                           the party to greater scrutiny than           to overtake America as the largest
  The Brexit Party invites voters to
                                           the brutally simple message of the           economy in the world – and it is likely
  become      registered   supporters
                                           campaign: We want out! As I write,           to unveil its prospectus as a global su-
  rather than members for a fee of
                                           Mr Farage is demanding a place at            perpower very soon.
  £25. Such supporters will shortly be
  able to influence the party's policy     the negotiating table…Meanwhile,
                                           the bizarre Change UK Party got              We are therefore at a critical juncture
  formation by means of a smart-
                                           nowhere – and then began to eat              in global political history – indeed, by
  phone app (something I predicted
                                           itself…                                      the time that China overtakes the USA
  in these pages with reference to the
                                                                                        as the largest economy in the world
                                                                                        in (my best guess – but don't sue me
                                                                                        if I'm wrong) 2032, our political land-
                                                                                        scape may look very different – and
                                                                                        economic policy too. This has huge im-
                                                                                        plications for investors.

                                                                                        Ten drivers of populism

                                                                                        There are many reasons why the tradi-
                                                                                        tional political model is being displaced
                                                                                        in the UK and other advanced democ-
                                                                                        racies – but we can distil ten essential
                                                                                        factors.

                                                                                        Firstly, conventional employment pat-
                                                                                        terns are changing fast. In Britain there
                                                  chrisdorney / Shutterstock.com
                                                                                        are 5.4 million citizens who are either
                                                                                        managing their own small businesses
                                                                                        as a limited company or who are reg-
advanced across Europe. That means         who is a seasoned economist and po-          istered as self-employed. These people
that the Eurosceptic populists will be     litical analyst as well as being a politi-   are uniquely cognisant of EU regula-
challenged to slow the integrationist      cian and former minister with strongly       tions that feed through the UK par-
impulses of the centrists and liberals.    pro-Brexit instincts – explains why pop-     liament. The prevailing view by small
                                           ulists have been winning elections, and      businesses across the EU is that the
We don't believe you                       why mainstream "establishment" pol-          regulations coming out of Brussels are
                                           iticians have responded not with un-         restrictive and excessive.
That is the title of Sir John Redwood's    derstanding but with haughty disbelief.
new book. I was at the book launch                                                      Secondly, there is a wide consensus in
at the House of Commons on 09 May          Essentially, the Redwood thesis is that      the UK that London consumes a dis-
and heard Sir John unpack the major        ordinary citizens have rumbled the rul-      proportionate amount of public invest-
themes. In the book, John Redwood –        ing elites. They do not believe that the     ment at the expense of the regions.

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COVER FEATURE

                                                                                          Spain: Vox Speaks

                                                                                          In El Ejido in Andalucía nearly 30
                                                                                          percent of voters supported Vox in
                                                                                          Spain's general election on 28 April
                                                                                          after years of favouring the Partido
                                                                                          Popular (PP), Spain's mainstream
                                                                                          conservative party. Under its char-
                                                                                          ismatic leader Santiago Abascal,
                                                                                          with its party slogan of Por España,
                                                                                          the party has come from nowhere
                                                                                          to being a political force. In 2016
                                                                                          Vox polled just 0.2 percent of the
                                                                                          vote but it won more than 10 per-
                                                                                          cent nationally in the general elec-
                                                                                          tion gaining more than 30 seats in
                                                                                          Spain's 350-seat parliament. An-
                                                       Silvi Photo / Shutterstock.com     alysts attribute three main forces
                                                                                          behind the party's rise. The first is
 London is, for many people – though        ple who say it is hardly worth voting         a reaction against Catalan separa-
 apparently not immigrants – a symbol       anymore since the politicians will just       tism. The second is (illegal) immi-
 of the liberal metropolitan elite that     ignore the outcome. That is why a sec-        gration – mostly from Africa. The
 imposes its values on the rest. (Many      ond referendum (the so-called People's        third is corruption. Vox is cultur-
 immigrants can only afford to live in      Vote) might actually be boycotted by          ally and socially conservative and
 London because they get housing ben-       large parts of the electorate, thus fur-      aspires to restore the influence of
 efit – unlike a lot of London-born peo-    ther undermining the legitimacy of the        the Catholic Church. Unlike many
 ple who have had to leave the capital      political system.                             other European populist parties
 in order to purchase their own homes.)                                                   most of Vox's support appears to
 There are analogues to this phenome-       Fourth, the membership bases of the           come from the middle classes. The
 non all over Europe. Anyone who has        traditional two big parties in the UK         PP has already moved to the right
 spent time in the Languedoc will know      and elsewhere have fallen sharply –           in response to Vox's challenge.
 how detested Parisians are in La France    especially that of the Conservatives.
 profonde. Ditto Romans in Calabria.        In the 1950s the Tories counted on
                                            nearly three million fully paid-up mem-     so the chance that they might desert
 Third, in the UK there is now a sense of   bers. Currently it has about 165,000        them altogether increases.
 deep frustration, not just about Brexit,   members – up from an all-time low of
 but about how the establishment has        124,000 in 2014. As voters become less      Fifth, traditional conservative parties
 handled Brexit. One often hears peo-       attached to traditional centrist parties    – most notably the UK Conservative

   Italy: the triumph of Signor Salvini

   Matteo Salvini's Lega topped the polls in Italy gaining 24 MEPs. Signor Sal-
   vini has been Minister of the Interior in Italy's coalition since its inception
   in May last year. The coalition is one between the Lega (which is normally
   described as "right-wing" because it is opposed to further immigration and
   talks loudly about law-and-order issues) and the quirky Five Star Movement
   led by Luigi di Maio. The nominal Prime Minister, Signor Conte, a lawyer,
   effectively forms a triumvirate with these two leaders.

   Last year Rome cut a deal with Brussels to cut its fiscal deficit from 2.4 per-
   cent of GDP to 2 percent. This calmed the bond markets where spreads
   between Italian and German government bonds had stretched to over 300
   basis points. Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio is pushing 132 percent and rising. Ten
   percent of Italian banks' assets consist of Italian government debt – so if the
   state defaults then the banks go too.

   Signor Salvini heads the populist European Alliance of People & Nations
   grouping in the European parliament which aims to reassert national pow-
   ers. This is an alliance of "patriotic" parties. But few if any of these parties
   want to follow Britain out of the European Union altogether.                              Saverio blasi / Shutterstock.com

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COVER FEATURE

     “ECONOMIST LIAM HALLIGAN BELIEVES THAT THE
    CURRENCY UNION IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST DANGER TO
            GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY.”

  Finland: discontent in
  the happiest nation on
  Earth

  The Finns Party, a nationalist an-
  ti-EU grouping has lit a fire that
  has spread, politically speaking,
  across the country's interminable
  forests. Finland is, so the social sci-
  entists tell us, the happiest nation
  in the world – with a sauna in every
  home. But resentment against mi-
  gration (large numbers of refugees
  have arrived from predominantly
  Muslim countries) and opposition
  to the power of Brussels has made
  a lot of Finns angry. Laura Hu-
  htasaari, deputy chair of the Finns
  Party told the Daily Telegraph:
  "Finland and the EU are weak on
  crime, weak on borders and weak
  on protecting nation states…I want
  my country back". The party won
  17.5 percent of the vote in the
  parliamentary election of 14 April,
  giving them 38 out of 200 seats in
  the national parliament. The party
  wants Finland to leave the euro-
  zone and favours a simple trad-
  ing bloc instead of a federal super       to-female transsexuals are not women.        bers of overwhelmingly young male
  state – but it does not favour the        You would have thought conservatives         immigrants from Africa and the Middle
  country's departure from the EU.          would at last stand up for free speech       East. Part of this arises from a legiti-
                                            – but no, they are part of the right-on      mate fear about social cohesion and
                                            PC inquisition.                              security – but it is often dismissed by
Party – have ceased to be "small c"                                                      mainstream politicians as racism.
conservatives. When one of Britain's        Sixth, there is still a lot of public con-
most distinguished philosophers, Sir        cern across Europe about the issue           Seventh, globalisation has meant that
Roger Scruton, made some fairly ano-        of immigration – and opinion hard-           a lot of traditional working-class jobs
dyne remarks in April about Islamism        ens when ordinary people are told by         have been sent abroad – and this is
and the Chinese he was forced off his       ruling elites that they are xenophobes.      what President Trump tapped into
(unpaid) position on a government ar-       Actually, there is very little disquiet      during his 2016 election campaign. (It's
chitecture quango. Foremost amongst         about intra-EU immigration. I never          not clear, by the way, how many he will
the lynch mob were Tory MPs waving          met anyone during the UK EU referen-         have repatriated by late 2020.)
their street cred. Personally, I'm happy    dum campaign who was concerned
that Britain is no longer an intolerant,    about French people coming to live           Eighth: the euro. The single currency
socially conservative society; but the      in London (where they are the largest        has been a disaster for European
trend is that anyone who does not           ethnic minority). Though, true, many         growth, productivity and employment.
agree with prevailing PC orthodoxy is       were concerned about large numbers           Economist Liam Halligan believes that
just driven from public life – without      of low-skilled workers coming to the         the currency union is the single big-
debate. Look at how one of the most         UK from less developed economies             gest danger to global financial stability.
prominent feminists of my lifetime,         in Eastern Europe who undercut the           This is because south Europe has been
Dr Germaine Greer, has been no-plat-        wages of British-born workers. Most of       caught in a deflationary trap while
formed because of her view that male-       the disquiet concerns the large num-         Germany and the Netherlands have

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COVER FEATURE

                                                                                                1000 Words / Shutterstock.com

 continued to build up surpluses. The        bottom end of society, the benefits
 Greek sovereign debt crisis of 2010-12      system does not seem fit for purpose,
 was contained because the ECB had           with more food banks in operation            Poland: Populists in
 room to cut rates and to print money.       than ever before (though there are           Power
 But the maxed-out ECB will not be able      cultural as well as economic reasons
 to bail out Italy if she totters.           for this – many people appear to be          Poland's ruling Law and Justice
                                             unable to cook for themselves).              Party is famously Eurosceptic and
 Ninth: austerity. The perception is                                                      conservative and there has been
 across Europe that state spending has       Any additional state expenditure will        tension between Brussels and
 been cut to the bone. In Greece that        have to be financed – and not by ad-         Warsaw since it came to power.
 is undoubted – one sees boarded up          ditional debt since nearly all European      However, Poland's pro-EU oppo-
 museums and uncollected dustbins            governments are already over-bor-            sition, the European Coalition, did
 everywhere there. In Scotland that          rowed. One thing is now certain: taxes       well in the European parliamen-
 is not the case – despite the impre-        will have to rise. Any Tory leadership       tary elections partly due to the
 cations of Ms Sturgeon (in fact Scot-       candidate who claims otherwise is ced-       impact of a recent documentary
 land enjoys higher state spending per       ing a hostage to fortune. The question       called Just Don't Tell Anyone about
 capita than the rest of the UK). But        is where they will fall. It has proven ex-   sexual abuse scandals in the
 the age of austerity which started af-      tremely tricky to soak "the rich" (who-      Catholic Church. The documen-
 ter the financial crisis of 2008-09 has     ever they are – is a headmaster on           tary has been viewed more than
 certainly made an impact. Look at the       £100k "rich"?).                              18 million times on YouTube since
 way that the UK coalition government                                                     it was released on 11 May. Just as
 cut the police budget in England – with     Tenth, inequality of income and wealth       in Ireland, Poland has been trans-
 terrible consequences at a time of ris-     is broadening almost everywhere –            formed from a highly conserva-
 ing knife-crime. Even well-off people       with measurable outcomes in terms            tive country in which the Catholic
 are concerned by this. Again, the Cam-      of health, well-being and longevity. Of      Church was preponderantly influ-
 eron-Osborne pantomime-horse's de-          course, there was always economic            ential to a largely liberal and sec-
 fence cuts at a time of rising interna-     inequality but what is different now is      ular one in a matter of 30 years.
 tional risks will be regarded as reckless   that these inequalities are more trans-      There was support for a number of
 by future generations. It is timely that    parent. The rich are getting richer,         small right-wing parties in the elec-
 UK Foreign Secretary Hunt has called        overall (assisted by the central bank-       tions, however. The ruling Law &
 for a massive increase in defence ex-       ers' addiction to quantitative easing        Justice Party won out with 42 per-
 penditure – possibly from two to four       which boosts asset prices – property         cent of the vote as against 39 per-
 percent of GDP (partially financeable       and stocks) while the poor are flat-lin-     cent for the European Coalition.
 by cutting the foreign aid budget).         ing – though being "poor" in the UK to-      For many Poles, the alternative to
 And by the way, spending money on           day is not the same as being poor in         the EU is domination by Russia:
 soldiers and defence contractors will       1919. There are also huge numbers of         therefore there is no appetite for
 have a much better multiplier effect        homeless people who are cold, hungry         a Polish withdrawal from the EU
 than spending money on destroying           and despairing – being "poor" is not         whatsoever.
 agricultural land to build HS2. At the      one single condition.

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COVER FEATURE
Most mainstream commentators as-            respectively. Sensible, provident folk      gion in the European elections for ex-
sume that populism is "right-wing"          (who pay virtually all the taxes that       plaining an important phenomenonii.
– embodied by Hungarian Prime Min-          keep our society going) need, more          Like the BBC, much of the media, the
ister Viktor Orbán who aspires to illib-    than ever, to escape mainstream me-         liberal professions (virtually all teach-
eral democracy – by which I understand      dia (MSM) and its tendentious nomen-        ers) and most of the civil service, many
a democracy that does not tolerate          clature in order to make sense of the       Conservative MPs have adopted a way
those who wish to destroy it. He is         world around them.                          of thinking that is quite distinct from
opposed to mass Muslim migration                                                        how most ordinary people think. This
into central Europe and is not ecstatic     But watch out. Just as we manage to         is best understood, writes Mr Bart-
about the advance of the transgen-          circumvent MSM and find out the facts       holomew, in terms of Marxist thinking,
derism ideology. (He was re-elected         ourselves through the judicious use         in particular Antonio Gramsci's con-
in the general election of 26 May – a       of the internet and social media, the       cept of cultural hegemony.
victory he described as the triumph of      illiberal establishment elite, led by the
Christian civilisation.) But, at the same   European Commission and President           Much of the establishment believes
time, many of the populists' most rad-      Macron, desperately want to throttle        that all rich people are greedy and
ical ideas are taken from the left. For     our access to anything that they regard     therefore morally suspect. Conversely,
example, Signor Salvini in Italy is very    as "nasty"…More on that soon.               they believe that the poor are all vic-
keen on a universal basic income – even                                                 tims of oppression (by the rich and
if that means higher taxes on the rich.     Antonio Gramsci and                         their agent, the State). They regard the
                                            cultural hegemony                           nation state as a relic of a bygone age.
My advice to investors is that the labels                                               While they celebrate diversity, they
"right-wing" and "left-wing" are almost     I am grateful to James Bartholomew,         balk at celebrating what binds us to-
devoid of meaning these days. You may       an ex-Tory who was a Brexit Party can-      gether – homogeneity is a dirty word for
as well substitute "nasty" and "fluffy"     didate in the South East of England re-     the mainstream mindset. Anyone from

  France: Macron le Vert!

  President Macron placed l'environnement at the centre of the manifesto of
  his République en Marche rebranded as the Renaissance Party. The main rival
  for the President's party was Marine Le Pen's also rebranded Rassemblement
  National. The President's manifesto included a pledge to outlaw trade deals
  with countries which have not signed up to the 2015 Paris Climate Accord.
  Other measures include investing at least €1 billion in developing clean en-
  ergy, a European Climate Bank by 2024 to channel savings towards the green
  economy and a carbon tax on all imports into the EU. Monsieur Macron's
  party was also challenged by the renascent centre-right Republican Party
  whose leader, Francois-Xavier Bellamy is a socially conservative, though
  photogenic, Catholic philosopher. In the event, the Republicans took just 8.3
  percent of the vote – well behind the Greens who were on 12.7 percent.
  Madame Le Pen's party topped the poll with just over 24 percent against 22
  percent for Renaissance. "This confirms the new divide between nationalists
  and globalists" Madame Le Pen declared at a victory rally.                            Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com

                                                                                              1000 Words / Shutterstock.com

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COVER FEATURE
                                                                                             a nation that feels at ease within its
                                                                                             own skin. That will mean taking on the
    “IF THE TORY PARTY IS TO SURVIVE AT                                                      shame-and-guilt mongers.

   ALL, THE NEXT PM NEEDS TO CULTIVATE                                                       Three consequences of
   A NATION THAT FEELS AT EASE WITHIN                                                        populism in Europe
              ITS OWN SKIN.”                                                                 What all populist parties have in com-
                                                                                             mon (with the possible exception of Mr
                                                                                             Farage's Brexit party which has only
                                                                                             one policy so far), in addition to tighter
                                                                                             control of immigration, is more pub-
                                                                                             lic spending and the end of austerity.
                                                                                             Given the parlous state of government
                                                                                             finances across most of Europe, espe-
                                                                                             cially in Italy, this cannot be achieved
                                                                                             without raising taxes.

                                                                                             So the first outcome will be that there
                                                                                             will be upward pressure on state ex-
                                                                                             penditure and therefore taxes. Mr
                                                                                             Trump's America has cut taxes, but
                                                                                             America befits from unique advan-
                                                                                             tages – it can always print dollars with-
                                                                                             out much fear of inflation because
                                                                                             the dollar is the world's surrogate
                                               Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com     currency. Europe's finances will dete-
                                                                                             riorate – and at some point the single
                                                                                             currency will suffer an almighty crisis.
                                                                                             (Yes, Jim Mellon and I have been pre-
                                                                                             dicting this for years…But we only have
                                                                                             to be right once…). There will also be
                                                                                             increased upward pressure on interest
                                                                                             rates in Europe going forward.

                                                                                             Second, there will be a slow-down in
                                                                                             the pace of European integration. It
                                                                                             is quite possible that the next Presi-
                                                                                             dent of the European Commission to
                                                                                             be appointed in November (proba-
                                                                                             bly a German) will signal this. The EU
                                                         chrisdorney / Shutterstock.com      desperately needs to retrench before
                                                                                             it expands further. I suspect that Eu-
 an ethnic minority who lauds their her-        ery) but we were the first people to pol-    rophiliac Macronism will retreat as a
 itage is a local hero; but any white Eng-      lute the planet (actually, wood-burning      result of this trend. I can quite foresee
 lish male who takes pride in the flag          has created greater carbon emissions         that Monsieur Macron will be beaten
 of Saint George is a white van-driving         than coal-burning). The default emo-         in 2022 by a more conventional figure
 bigot. In fact, anyone who immerses            tion of the ruling establishment is guilt.   from the Republican right of French
 themselves in European culture (clas-          Guilt nourishes victimhood; which, in        politics who will garner votes from
 sic literature, opera, symphonic music         turn engenders anger and alienation.         Madame Le Pen.
 – like this writer) is now a suspect racist    It is a gloomy, sad and ultimately neg-
 for idolising dead white males.                ative mindset which damages the col-         Third, open hostility to mass immi-
                                                lective joy of nationhood which others       gration will become more politically
 It is great that "minorities" should           (the Russians and the Chinese come to        acceptable. The UK's generous (£14
 stand tall and proud these days. (I do         mind) extoll.                                billion) foreign aid budget should be
 have a problem with the term "minor-                                                        directed at projects that alleviate the
 ities". Am I a member of a minority by         Mr Bartholomew says that he finds the        pressure for young people to emi-
 virtue of being bald? And who are the          Brexit Party a space of hopeful, sunny,      grate from sub-Saharan Africa, Iraq
 majority, anyway?) But to be British,          interesting, optimistic people. (Give or     and Afghanistan. The left will agitate
 according to this mindset, demands a           take a few loonies, perhaps.) Whether        that these economic migrants are in
 sense of shame. Apparently, not only           you buy that or not the message is           fact refugees but the distinction be-
 were we slavers (actually, we were at          clear. If the Tory Party is to survive       tween these two categories is becom-
 the forefront of the abolition of slav-        at all, the next PM needs to cultivate       ing elastic.

18 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
COVER FEATURE

    “TOM STEVENSON OF FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL
   BELIEVES THAT A DIVIDED EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
             COULD BENEFIT INVESTORS.”

How investors should
respond                                     USA: The Trump                           politics Mr Trump was, if anything,
                                            take-over                                a (New York) Democrat – a success-
Tom Stevenson of Fidelity Interna-                                                   ful businessman who went to all
tional – who was a keynote speaker at       John Redwood's take is that, in the      the right charity balls. What turned
this year's Master Investor Show – be-      USA, which is a country the political    him was the fatalistic attitude of
lieves that a divided European Parlia-      institutions of which have held to-      the American elite to the decline
ment could benefit investors. Europe,       gether longer than any other (except     of the American working class in
he says, will continue to be influenced     the UK – a debatable point) pop-         the "states between" who lost out
by events outside Europe as much as         ulism triumphed because Donald           from uncontrolled immigration
within it. The outcome of the trade         Trump pulled off a kind of reverse       and globalisation. Personally, I re-
war between the USA and China is of         take-over of the Republican Party.       gard Mr Trump as an old-fashioned
greater significance. Similarly, the re-    The Republican establishment, epit-      conservative with a traditionally
cent fiscal stimulus in China could re-     omised by the Bush family clan,          liberal economic agenda. American
sult in increased consumer spending         opposed him vigorously – and still       socialism is growing: but I am cur-
which would boost Europe's economy.         do. They regarded him as an out-         rently gauging the probability of Mr
                                            sider – a mantle he adopted to his       Trump's re-election in 2020 at over
Currently, company valuations on            own advantage. Before he went into       70 percent.
the European bourses are low – and
falling. Fund managers globally have
been pulling money out of Europe.
European stocks, which include scores
of world-class companies, now look
cheap (as do British stocks). Political
infighting is not necessarily a disaster
for corporates as fractious coalitions of
politicians tend to leave big business
alone. Of course, the advent of a Cor-
byn government in the UK would be
quite a different matter.

In terms of European equities there
are some very persuasive stories out
there for those who are prepared to do
their homework. On the other hand,
expect more bad news in the European
automotive and banking sectors. Over-
all, the headwinds are blowing against                                                        lev radin / Shutterstock.com
Europe as political and financial risks
increase. Regardless of the outcome of
Britain's private nightmare over Brexit,
Europe is likely to become increasingly     About Victor
divided in the near-term.
                                            Victor is a financial economist, consultant, trainer and writer, with extensive
It is highly paradoxical that a European    experience in commercial and investment banking and fund management.
election – which, by rights, should never   His career includes stints at JP Morgan, Argyll Investment Management and
have taken place in the UK at all – has     World Bank IFC.
concentrated minds as never before.

  i     Sunday, 12 May 2019.
  ii    See: Six weeks' old and the Brexit Party has already ousted a Prime Minister, by James Bartholomew,
        The Sunday Telegraph, 26 May 2019.

www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 | 19
BY MARK WATSON-MITCHELL

                                              portfolio intelligence

     Market bubbles,
     crashes, panics
       and crises
               What do we learn from them?
     Awareness of previous market events helps investors avoid the worst excesses. Mark
     Watson-Mitchell takes us on a whirlwind tour of history…

     The strong urge to make a quick           I have taken a look at what history    sought after, with prices shooting up
     buck always counters sage warnings.       has thrown up during a host of mar-    as they became 'must have' adorn-
     It is different this time – but is it?    ket bubbles, crashes, panics and       ments for houses.
                                               crises – can we learn anything from
     Market bubbles are built upon fi-         what happened in the past?             After a few years the tulip bulbs con-
     nancial desire and excessive greed.                                              tracted 'mosaic', which was a harm-
     Crashes are then built upon exces-        Tulip Mania                            less virus; however, it created flames
     sive fear. So too are panics – that                                              of colour in the tulips, the patterns of
     you cannot get out before your            In the 1590s, tulips were introduced   which made the flowers even more
     profits implode. Crises are the re-       to the Dutch. Coming from Tur-         unique. What the Dutch did not know
     sult of a mixture of all of these and     key, the new exotic and beautifully    at the time was that after a growth
     the aftermath.                            coloured flowers became much           period of nine years or so a tulip will

      “OVER THE YEARS OF 1634 TO 1637, PRICES STARTED TO REACH
       RIDICULOUS HEIGHTS, WITH SUGGESTIONS THAT EVEN 5,000
      GILDERS BOUGHT JUST ONE TULIP BULB. THAT WAS A FORTUNE,
       THE PRICE OF A HOUSE AND MANY TIMES A YEAR’S SALARY.”

20 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
PORTFOLIO INTELLIGENCE

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PORTFOLIO INTELLIGENCE

    “SARCASM OR MOCKERY ABOUT JOHN LAW AND HIS
    VARIOUS SCHEMES CREATED THE ISLAND OF MAD-
    HEAD, DISCOVERED BY ONE MR LAW-RENS. IT WAS
    INHABITED BY A NATION OF ‘SHAREHOLDERS’ AND
         WAS AMIDST A SEA OF CERTIFICATES.”

 become striped or speckled because of        The South Sea Bubble and                     attention. At one time, it is said, the
 that disease. The people were amazed         The Mississippi Company                      company's stock was worth more than
 at the changing flowers and that made                                                     80 times the value of all the gold and
 them even more in demand.                    In the early 1700s the British Empire        silver in France.
                                              was growing fast and it brought pros-
 Accordingly, the price of tulips rose        perity to many of its citizens. Money        The investing public believed that the
 even higher. With everyone now more          was flowing easily and always looking        Brits could do no wrong – whether in
 than keen to deal in tulip bulbs, the        for a new home.                              the Americas, France or wherever. And
 speculation was rife as values ap-                                                        a plethora of public issues hit the mar-
 peared to have no limits. Personal           The East India Company, which had            kets to soak up the ensuing investment
 savings were put at risk as one and all      just 499 investors, was a veritable          frenzy. By the summer of 1720, decid-
 joined in the frenzy. Over the years of      money machine and its dividends were         ing that the value of their own holdings
 1634 to 1637, prices started to reach ri-    legend. So, in 1716 when the South           in the South Sea Company were out of
 diculous heights, with suggestions that      Sea Company was 'floated' it gained          reality, its management started to sell
 even 5,000 gilders bought just one tulip     an enormous following. South Sea had         off their stakes.
 bulb. That was a fortune, the price of a     given the UK Government a promise to
 house and many times a year's salary.        pay £10m for the 'rights' to all the trade   Thereafter, a wave of selling turned
                                              in the South Seas. The investing public      into a panic and the values of the ma-
 As prices rose some speculators started      deemed this opportunity to be where          jority of the recent issues started to
 to 'flip' their contracts to buy bulbs and   their money should be invested – and         crash. Similarly, Mississippi Company
 made big profits in the process. But         they piled into the many issues and          stock fell, and it eventually went out of
 that encouraged so many more to play         re-issues of South Sea Company stock.        business.
 that market, which was obviously only
 going one way – up. However, at the          About the same time over in France,          Sarcasm or mockery about John Law
 massively inflated prices the 'dealers'      John Law came up with the idea of            and his various schemes created the
 started to sell hard, and the big fall was   switching the monetary system from           island of Mad-head, discovered by one
 in process. By the end, the value of a       silver and gold over to a paper cur-         Mr Law-rens. It was inhabited by a na-
 tulip bulb crashed down to equal the         rency system. When he floated his Mis-       tion of 'shareholders' and was amidst a
 cost of an onion. A Dutch Depression         sissippi Company, to exploit the French      sea of certificates.
 followed the dawning of reality.             colonies, it too gained massive investor
                                                                                           The Bengal Bubble of 1769

                                                                                           Following the conquest in 1757 of Ben-
                                                                                           gal by Robert Clive, the valuation of The
                                                                                           East India Company rose significantly
                                                                                           between the years of 1757 and 1769.
                                                                                           Just before the Bengal Famine in 1770,
                                                                                           the shares were peaking at £284 each.
                                                                                           Together with recognition of various
                                                                                           corporate management actions and its
                                                                                           growing predatory nature, this brought
                                                                                           about several attacks on the East India
                                                                                           Company and led to the collapse of the
                                                                                           Bengal textile industry.

                                                                                           Within a short period of time the com-
                                                                                           pany's shares had fallen back to £122,
                                                                                           before a number of 'bailouts' of the
                                                                                           company eventually led to the Crown
                                                                                           taking control.

22 | ISSUE 51 – JUNE 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
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