PREDICTS MELBOURNE CUP 2014 - "The Brain" that stops the nation!
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
PREDICTS MELBOURNE CUP 2014
“The Brain” that stops the nation!
#BOHOPREDICTS
1
So what is ‘The Brain’?
The Brain is Bohemia’s custom built data intellegence platform. The single
source of truth that maintains all client, consumer, communications and
tribal data. The data powers our attribution model we call Cognito. Cognito
allows our clients to understand the effect that every dollar they invest in
marketing has on multiple commercial outcomes at variable cadence.
The Brain also successfully predicted last year’s Melbourne Cup winner.
Essentially in this case it works by amalgamating and analysing numerous
different data sets which incorporate key features of a winning Melbourne
Cup horse, such as racing form, historical winner’s data, market sentiment
and more in one big statistical model that aims to give an idea of who is
most likely to cross the finish line first.
We are in the business of turning data into competitive advantage for our
clients and presenting it in a human and actionable way.
We hope this lives up to that promise.
The Brain’s predictions
Last year Bohemia was exactly 1 second out from predicting the final finishing time for winner
Fiorente. This year we hope to go even better. Here are our top 5 predictions with finishing time and
current odds.
1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH 5TH
MUTUAL FAWKNER PROTECTIONIST ADMIRE LUCIA
REGARD RAKTI VALENTINA
3:21:96 3:21:99 3:22:49 3:22:64 3:22:67
$10.00 $7.50 $8.00 $5.50 $7.00
The Brain Learns: What’s new in 2014?
This year sees the introduction of a number of new factors for The Brain to consider with the
addition of geographical data and detailed research on each jockey providing new dimensions to the
model. ‘Why would anyone change a winning formula?’ you ask, but rather than ‘meddling’ we see it
as the next evolution of The Brain’s predictive capabilities.
#BOHOPREDICTS
2
The Model
Contributing to the model’s key areas are 7 data points which are each given a weighting based on
their influence in delivering a Melbourne Cup winner. Here’s what goes into The Brains’ algorithm:
Common Thread
A combination of the common elements that link the past winners of the Melbourne
Cup including: age, sex, handicap weight, barrier, saddlecloth, birth country and colour. 15%
Winning Ratio
A measure of the horse’s previous victories and placements compared to
the number of races it has run including distance experience. 20%
Homestate Hero
An added dimension of thinking for The Brain this year is a number of geographical implications
including where the horses were foaled, from which states/ countries the jockeys originate plus the 5%
best combinations of horse + jockey nationalities in Melbourne Cup history.
New!
Form
Measured by a factored formula looking at the each horse’s performance
over their last ten races, with their most recent performance ranking higher. 30%
Jockey Influence
This year the jockey’s influence and previous performance over the past 12 months has been 5%
integrated into the model to add another dimension to the data.
New!
Market Sentiment
Measured by the starting odds and their movement as a
representation of the mood of the market. 10%
Social Importance
Social chatter from the punting public, betting establishments and key influencers was used to
determine a social guidance for each horse. 10%
Money Pot
A measure of the average prize money won per race as a representative
of big race experience and competitive calibre. 5%
#BOHOPREDICTS
3Uncovering the Common Thread
What are the things that go into making a Melbourne Cup winner? Below is a breakdown of what
makes up the Common Thread of the previous victors.
Saddlecloth number
Does seem to be of some consequence, roughly 65% of all winners have come
from saddlecloth numbers 1-12. With saddlecloth numbers 4 and 12 being the
most successful with 11 wins each.
Weight
Measured by the handicap weight the horse carried to victory. Only four horses have been
successful with a weight over 57kg in the last 50 years, with the average weight carried by
the winner being 53.5kg.
Newcomer
Measured by whether the winning horse had run in a Melbourne Cup previously.
Over the last 14 years over 70% of the winners had not run the race before.
Age
Over half the winners of the great race have been aged four or five, with a three year old
not winning the race since 1941 and an eight year old since 1938.
Gender
Females have won the race less than 11% of the time. With horses (not geldings,
mares, colts or fillys!) having the best record with 65 wins.
Birth country
Where the horse was foaled. In the last 50 years 80% of the cup winners were foaled
outside of Australia, with 26 of the 50 winners being foaled in New Zealand.
Colour
The colour of the coat is a distinguishing factor in a racing winner.
Only 7% of race winners have not had a brown coat with Bay winning 64 times.
Barrier
The starting barrier can provide a horse with a random advantage over other runners and
can be a deciding factor in the overall winner. More than 68% of winners have come from
inside barrier 14, with barrier 18 never producing a winner.
#BOHOPREDICTS
4The Jockeys
What use is a great horse without a great rider? This year we have delved deeper into analysing
the jockeys that are participating in the 2014 race and how their previous performances can
play a key part in which horse wins this year’s Melbourne Cup.
Weight
With every horse being handicapped to varying
degrees for each race, the other people that
have to adapt are the jockeys. The Brain has
absorbed the past 12 months’ worth of data for
each jockey riding horses at varying weights and
determines their potential success on their ride
for the Melbourne Cup.
Barrier Distances
Not only horses prefer Every race requires different
starting from a specific tactics, especially with the
barrier, the jockeys also Melbourne Cup covering a
know that where they start huge 3200m. The model
will likely impact where they looks at how many long
finish. The Brain analyses distance races the jockeys
the success of each of the have ridden in recent times
starting jockeys and their and whether they have what it
previous performance when takes to judge that final sprint
given a specific barrier. to perfection.
Field Size
The Melbourne Cup’s traditional field of 24
horses is unusually large for any horse race,
which means one key factor for the model to
take into account is how well a jockey handles
his horse with so many other jostling for position.
Some will be more experienced than others,
some will just get lucky.
#BOHOPREDICTS
5Homestate Hero
Could it be possible that where a horse is foaled or where a jockey is born have any influence
over whether their eventual combined partnership can lead them to Melbourne Cup glory?
The Brain once again turned to the history of the Melbourne Cup to provide the insight.
Below you’ll find the states and countries that have been the most successful for producing
Melbourne Cup winning jockeys and horses over the past 50 years. But we didn’t stop there.
You’ll also find the best combinations of jockeys from one particular place with horses from
another, and vice versa. The perfect partnership? Maybe.
Jockey’s homestate
Key Kiwi winners
Birthplace of horse
Number of cups won
Birthplace of jockey
#BOHOPREDICTS
6Other Ways to Bet
There are numerous ways and reasons to back different horses and here the data team gives their
recommendations if you were only to make your decision on one isolated factor:
Form 1 2 3
If you were to take form alone as your
deciding factor, then these three horses
would be worth a look:
Gatewood Mutual Regard Protectionist
Winning Ratio 1 2 3
A winning mentality can be a great
indicator for deciding whether a horse
has what it takes to win the cup.
Here’s the top three horses that have Who Shot
Thebarman Signoff Mutual Regard
placed and won at the distance before:
1 2 3
Colour
92% of all previous winners have had
a brown coat. Here’s our top picks of
brown horses in this year’s field: Protectionist Signoff Lucia Valentina
Odds 1 2 3
The bookmakers and betting sites may well
attempt to influence betting patterns, but
the favourites are favourites for a reason.
Here’s this year’s bookie’s picks:
Admire Rakti Signoff Protectionist
What history tells us
Times
3 MINUTES 35 SECONDS _____________________________________________________ 1861 – 1900
3 MINUTES 27 SECONDS ___________________________________________ 1901 – 1940
3 MINUTES 23 SECONDS __________________________________ 1941 – 1980
3 MINUTES 21 SECONDS ________________________ 1981 – 2013
35 SECONDS IS THE TOTAL IMPROVEMENT IN RACE TIMES OVER THE PAST 153 YEARS
18
THE ONLY
5 AND 11 65%
ARE THE MOST SUCCESSFUL HAVE WORN SADDLECLOTH
BARRIER TO BARRIERS WITH 15 WINS
NEVER PRODUCE BETWEEN THEM 1 TO 12
A WINNER
#BOHOPREDICTS
7What’s In a Name?
Let’s face it, horse racing isn’t just about the numbers. Everyone, at one stage or another, has
picked a horse based on its name. There probably isn’t a more fun way to watch horse racing than
when a horse is running and its name has some obscure affiliation to you.
Paying homage to this time honoured tradition, the data team decided to delve into the Melbourne
Cup history books once again in an attempt to apply a little science and offer some help when
picking your horse purely based on its name.
The Jockeys The Horses
First Names Names
History tells us that the winning jockey’s first name
should begin with either a J, R or W taking out a A little less clear cut than the jockeys, horses with
names beginning with B, G, M, P, S or T are the
combined 38% of races since the Cup began. most successful which account for 47% of all
winners in the Melbourne Cup.
J R W B G M P S
Surnames
Whilst a jockey’s surname should begin with a C,
D, M or S which make up a combined 43.5%
2014?
of all Melbourne Cup victories.
JAMES MCDONALD
C D M S riding American outsider Willing Foe
or
JOAO MOREIRA
on the well-backed Signoff
#BOHOPREDICTS
8Word on the Street
Last year saw the influence of social media taken into account when
picking the top 5 recommendations. In the end, it played a large
part in convincing the team that Fiorente would be victorious over
its closest rivals and as such, the metric has been retained as an
influential part of the model.
Twitter data is pulled in real time right up until the morning on the day
of the race with key influencers from the racing world given more value
than the average punter.
The 5 streams we evaluate are split as follows:
BETTING SITES ENTHUSIASTS & JOURNALISTS RACING MEDIA GENERAL PUBLIC
PROFESSIONALS
Big promoters of their Their day to day job is The publishers themselves Anyone in the public
own odds and often Trainers, jockeys or anyone reporting on the horses, who are more likely to print domain with a Twitter
attempt to influence else with a specialist reading the form and stories aimed at increasing account that has chosen
betting patterns knowledge of the industry often tipping a winner. readership in a competitive to tweet their opinion,
often working closely with Without working as industry. tips or simply a passing
close to the horses as statement which mentions
horses and owners
the professionals, can one or more of the
their information be Melbourne Cup field.
completely accurate?
1 2 3 4 5
BETTING SITES FAWKNER ADMIRE RAKTI SIGNOFF LUCIA VALENTINA JUNOOB
ENTHUSIASTS & RED CADEAUX FAWKNER ADMIRE RAKTI BRAMBLES MUTUAL REGARD
PROFESSIONALS
JOURNALISTS ADMIRE RAKTI FAWKNER SIGNOFF MY AMBIVALENT LUCIA VALENTINA
RACING MEDIA ADMIRE RAKTI FAWKNER SIGNOFF LUCIA VALENTINA RED CADEAUX
GENERAL PUBLIC ADMIRE RAKTI FAWKNER MUTUAL REGARD PRECENDENCE PROTECTIONIST
#BOHOPREDICTS
9Sweepstake + Quick Fact + The Brain’s Ranking
1. ADMIRE RAKTI 3. FAWKNER 4. RED CADEAUX
Gate: 8 Jockey: Zac Purton Gate: 9 Jockey: Nick Hall Gate: 15 Jockey: Gerald Mosse
= 625.39 = 645.35 = 448.67
PREDIC.TIME 3:22:64 ODDS $5.50 PREDIC.TIME 3:21:99 ODDS $7.50 PREDIC.TIME 3:26:35 ODDS $19.00
Winner of the 2014 Caulfield Cup, the Winner of the 2013 Caulfield Cup and Amassed $7m in prize money to date
race considered the greatest indicator for placed 2nd in this year’s Cox plate just and has twice finished runner up in the
success in the Melbourne Cup.The Bookies over a week ago. Melbourne Cup. Could go one better today.
favourite.
2. CAVALRYMAN 5. PROTECTIONIST 6. SEA MOON
Gate: 3 Jockey: Craig Williams Gate: 11 Jockey: Ryan Moore Gate: 18 Jockey: Tommy Berry
= 535.85 = 633.31 = 295.14
Has won 3 of his 4 races this year and
PREDIC.TIME 3:22:49 ODDS $8.00 Scratched from the race early on Monday
wont be overawed by the occasion having morning.
Has placed in 8 out of his 9 career starts
run in 2012.
with 4 of them victories! Knows how to win. SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
22. LUCIA
14. MY VALENTINA 7. SEISMOS
AMBIVALENT Gate: 2 Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Gate: 1 Jockey: Craig Newitt
Gate: 4 Jockey: Zac Purton
= 614.95 = 401.48
= 540.66 PREDIC.TIME 3:27:66 ODDS $81.00
PREDIC.TIME 3:22:67 ODDS $7.00
PREDIC.TIME 3:24:69 ODDS $41.00
Finished 3rd in the Caulfield Cup Winner in Germany over 2400m and
Finished 3rd in a strong field at the and was the winner in this year’s again in the Geoffrey Free Stakes
Dubai Sheema Classic earlier this year. Turnbull Stakes. Looks in fine form. earlier this year.
12. WHO SHOT
9. ROYAL 8. JUNOOB THEBARMAN
DIAMOND Gate: 7 Jockey: Hugh Bowman Gate: 13 Jockey: Glen Boss
Gate: 6 Jockey: Steven Arnold
= 481.20 = 515.26
= 444.77
PREDIC.TIME 3:26:13 ODDS $26.00 PREDIC.TIME 3:25:39 ODDS $13.00
PREDIC.TIME 3:26:68 ODDS $81.00
Back to back winner of the Hills Besides a great name, has won over
Has won at 3200 meters before stakes and Metropolitan so knows 3200m in the Aukland cup.
so can go the distance. the winning feeling.
11. MUTUAL
REGARD 10. GATEWOOD 13. WILLING FOE
Gate: 12 Jockey: Damien Oliver Gate: 22 Jockey: William Buick
Gate: 17 Jockey: James McDonald
= 657.25 = 554.91
= 518.32
PREDIC.TIME 3:21:96 ODDS $10.00 PREDIC.TIME 3:24:21 ODDS $61.00
PREDIC.TIME 3:24:74 ODDS $23.00
Has placed an incredible 14 out of Winner of the 2013 Caulfield Cup and
Has won at both 2800m and 2600m
17 starts and is comfortable at the placed 2nd in this year’s Cox plate just
so should have no issue with
distance. Will be in the mix. over a week ago.
the distance.
15. PRECEDENCE 16. BRAMBLES 17. MR O’CEIRIN
Gate: 20 Jockey: Michael Rodd Gate: 19 Jockey: Luke Nolen Gate: 19 Jockey: Chad Schofield
= 381.08 = 450.00 = 308.71
PREDIC.TIME 3:28.68 ODDS $71.00 PREDIC.TIME 3:26:16 ODDS $71.00 PREDIC.TIME 3:29:71 ODDS $201.0
Trained by the great Bart Cummings Finished 4th in the Caulfield Cup Foaled in New Zealand, a country
with the most Melbourne cup wins. this year and placed in the with a strong pedigree for producing
Could Precedence be his Turnbull Stakes. Melbourne Cup winners.
13th victory?
20. OPINION 18. AU REVOIR 19. LIDARI
Gate: 14 Jockey: Tye Angland Gate: 23 Jockey: Glyn Schofield Gate: 10 Jockey: Ben Melham
= 410.99 = 430.81
= 446.67
PREDIC.TIME 3:26:98 ODDS $61.00 PREDIC.TIME 3:26:90 ODDS $71.00
PREDIC.TIME 3:26:49 ODDS $81.00
Finished 2nd over 3200m in the Finished 2nd in this year’s
2013 Sydney Cup so has what it Hasn’t finished outside the top 6 Turnbull stakes.
takes to win at the distance. in his last 10 races. A chance for
a place.
21. ARALDO 23. UNCHAIN 24. SIGNOFF
Gate: 24 Jockey: Dwayne Dunn MY HEART Gate: 16 Jockey: Joao Moreira
Gate: 5 Jockey: Dean Yendall
= 483.11
= 603.97
PREDIC.TIME 3:25:65 ODDS $26.00 = 402.21
PREDIC.TIME 3:23:01 ODDS $7.50
PREDIC.TIME 3:27:65 ODDS $81.00
Has a strong finish. Moved up
from 11th to 5th in this year’s Peaking at the right time with a
Remarkably, jockey Dean Yendall has
Caulfield Cup in the last 400m. dominant win in the Lexus Stakes
36 wins in the past 12 months when
to claim a place in the Melbourne
starting in barriers 4, 5 or 6 .
Cup.The team behind the prediction.
Contact:
Steve Wright - Group Data and Attribution Director
stevew@bohemiagroup.com.au
bohemiagroup.com.au
Quick disclaimer
Please note that this model is not intended to be taken seriously. It has been
produced with the primary purpose of enjoyment. Bohemia and the Bohemia
Data and Attribution team have limited knowledge of horse racing and in no
way does this document constitute professional advice nor should you rely on
the contents of this document when undertaking any gambling activities.
No warranty (express or implied) is given to the accuracy or completeness of
the information contained in this document.
For help and advice, visit gambling help online
(www.Gamblinghelponline.Org.Au) or phone 1800 858 858.
#BOHOPREDICTS
10You can also read
