Adverse Weather Tightens U.S. Rice Supplies in 2019/20; U.S. Rice Area Expected to Rebound in 2020/21 - USA Rice Federation
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Adverse Weather Tightens U.S. Rice Supplies in
2019/20; U.S. Rice Area Expected
to Rebound in 2020/21
2019 USA Rice Outlook Conference
December 8-10, 2019
Nathan Childs
Economic Research Service
USDA
Data approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Estimates and forecasts are from the
December 2019 WASDE.
PART 1
THE 2019/20 GLOBAL RICE MARKET:
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
2The 2019/20 Global Rice Market:
An Overview
• Global rice production is projected at 498.4 million tons (milled
basis), down just 0.8 million tons from the 2018/19 record.
• Crops are projected smaller in Australia, China, Colombia,
Cuba, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal,
Panama, Paraguay, South Korea, Taiwan, the United States (-16
percent), and Venezuela.
• But, larger rice crops are projected for Bangladesh, Burma,
Cambodia, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt (+54 percent), EU, Guyana, Iraq,
Japan, Laos, Madagascar, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines,
Russia, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam.
3Despite slightly smaller production, global rice supplies
in 2019/20 are projected to be record high
MIL. TONS
700 Global Carryin Global Production
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 09/10 13/14 19/20
Milled basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database,
Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
4The 2019/20 Global Rice Market:
Production Decline—Selected Countries
Country Production Percent Change Reasons
China 146.73 million tons -1.2 percent Lower area, but record yield
India 115.00 million tons -1.2 percent Slightly lower area & yield
Indonesia 36.50 million tons -0.5 percent Area down due to drought
United States 5.97 million tons -16.7 percent Weather-induced big area
drop, slightly lower yield
Nepal 3.53 million tons -5.4 percent Return to trend yield
Mali 1.95 million tons -5.3 percent Return to trend yield
Colombia 1.64 million tons -3.0 percent Return to trend yield
Paraguay 0.70 million tons -4.6 percent Smaller area & yield
Panama 0.15 million tons -27.2 percent Smaller area, yield, drought
Australia 36,000 tons -16.3 percent Area down, severe drought
5The 2019/20 Global Rice Market:
Production Increase—Selected Countries (R = Record)
Country Production Percent Change Reasons
Bangladesh 35.50 million tons R +1.4 percent Record area and yield
Vietnam 28.30 million tons R +1.4 percent Record yield, area up
Thailand 20.50 million tons +0.8 percent Slight area expansion
Burma 13.30 million tons R +0.8 percent Record area and yield
Philippines 12.00 million tons +2.3 percent Record yield, area slight drop
Cambodia 5.69 million tons R +0.9 percent Record area and yield
Egypt 4.30 million tons +53.6 percent Large area expansion
Sri Lanka 3.06 million tons +3.4 percent Record yield, but area down
Madagascar 2.69 million tons +5.0 percent Higher yield
Laos 2.05 million tons R +22.0 percent Area recovery from flood
Cote d’Ivoire 1.40 million tons R +7.4 percent Record area, higher yield
Iraq 0.30 million tons R +1400 percent Area expansion, record yield
6The 2019/20 Global Rice Market:
Consumption and Residual Use
• Global consumption and residual use is projected at a
record 493.8 million tons, up more than 5 million tons
from 2018/19, but 4.6 million tons smaller than 2019/20
production.
• Consumption is projected to increase in 2019/20 in
Bangladesh, Cambodia, Egypt, Indonesia, the
Philippines, and Vietnam.
• But consumption is projected to decline in Japan and
South Korea (long term diet diversification), Nepal
(smaller crop) Thailand (end of Government stock
disposal), and the United States (smaller supplies).
7The 2019/20 Global Rice Market:
Consumption and Residual Use—Continued
• Little or no change in consumption is projected for Brazil,
China (remains record high), India (record high), and Nigeria
(remains record high).
• Consumption (including residual use) is projected to rise
almost 3 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa to a record 33.8 million
tons, more than double consumption in 2004/05, as result of
both a larger population and higher per capita consumption.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region with significant growth in
per capita rice consumption.
8With a 13th consecutive increase, global ending
stocks in 2019/20 are projected to be record high
MIL. TONS PERCENT
200 50
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio
175
40
150
125 30
100
75 20
50
10
25
0 0
90/91 95/96 2000/01 05/06 10/11 14/15 2019/20
2019/20 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution
database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
9The 2019/20 Global Rice Market:
Ending Stocks and Prices
• Global ending stocks are projected at a record 177.8 million tons,
up almost 3 percent from 2018/19.
• China accounts for almost two-thirds of 2019/20 global ending
stocks, with China’s stocks projected at a record 117.4 million
tons, up 2 percent and the 13th consecutive year of increase.
• India’s 2019/20 ending stocks are projected at 29.5 million tons, up
5 percent from 2018/19 and the highest on record.
• The 2019/20 global stocks-to-use ratio of 36.0 percent is up from
35.5 percent in from 2018/19, but still below the 37.1 % record in
2000/01.
• Global trading prices are expected to be slightly higher in 2019/20,
but the U.S. price difference over Asian and South American
exporters is projected to be little changed.
10With record stocks of 117.4 million tons in 2019/20, China
is expected to account for 66 percent of global rice stocks
MIL. TONS
180
China Rest of the World
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2014/15 2019/20
2019/20 are forecasts. Milled basis. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution
database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
11U.S. price difference for long-grain milled rice over
Asian & South American exporters has widened
U.S. No. 2 Long-grain 572 587 Thai 100 % Grade B 596 576
Vietnam's 5 Percent Brokens 482 425 Argentina 5 percent 600 620
$/TON
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
All prices quoted “free-on-board” vessel at local port. Sources: Thai quotes, U.S. Ag
Counselor, Bangkok; U.S., Argentina, and Vietnam quotes, Creed Rice Market Report.
12Global Rice Trade in 2020 Is Projected To
Increase 3 Percent, But Remain Below Record
• Global rice trade is projected at a 45.9 million tons, up more
than 3 percent from 2019, but still more than 4 percent below
the 2017 record.
• The projected expansion in global rice imports in 2020 is
largely driven by:
– Expected record purchases from Sub-Saharan Africa, up 4
percent from 2019 despite record production.
– Indonesia (with a drought-reduced crop) and Brazil
(experiencing long-term area decline) are projected to
import more rice in 2020 than in 2019.
– The Middle East continues its slow import expansion.
13Global 2020 Rice Trade—Continued
• The decline in global rice imports since the 2017 record has mostly
been due to a big decrease in China’s imports (policy driven), as well
as much smaller imports by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka due to strong
crop recoveries in both countries.
• Nigeria’s imports have declined due to the recent ban on border trade
with Benin.
• On the 2020 export side, increased shipments from Burma, Cambodia,
China, Egypt, India, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam are
projected…
• …To more than offset weaker shipments from Argentina, Australia,
Brazil, and Pakistan.
• Since 2017, China has returned as a major exporter, shipping
substantial quantities of low priced rice from its Government held
stocks to Africa and the Middle East.
• India remains the top exporter, despite the increased competition from
China, while Thailand (number 2 exporter) remains uncompetitive.
14More than 9 percent of world rice production
now enters the global market
MIL. TONS PERCENT
55 12
50 Rice Trade Trade Share of Production 11
45 10
40 9
35 8
7
30
6
25
5
20 4
15 3
10 2
5 1
0 0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2015 2020
2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution
database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
15Sub-Saharan Africa remains the largest rice importing
region; East and South Asia imports have declined
MIL. TONS
18
2016
16
2017
14 2018
12 2019
10 2020
8
6
4
2
0
Sub-Saharan Middle East East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia
Africa
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and
Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
16China’s and Nigeria’s rice imports have declined since 2017;
while the Philippines imported record amounts in 2019
MIL. TONS Top 3 Global Rice Importing Countries
7
China Nigeria Philippines
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and
Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
17Indonesia is projected to sharply
boost rice imports in 2020
Other major Asian importers
Mil. TONS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Indonesia Malaysia Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and
Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
18Rice imports are projected to reach record highs in
2020 for several Sub-Saharan African countries
Other Major Sub-Saharan Africa Importers
1,000 TONS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Ivory Senegal S. Africa Cameroon Guinea Ghana Burkina Benin
Coast
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution
database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
19Rice import growth by the Middle East
is projected to remain slow in 2020
Europe and Middle East Rice Importers
1,000 TONS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
EU Iran Iraq Saudi Turkey Jordan
Arabia
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database,
Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
20Egypt’s rice imports are projected to drop sharply in 2020;
East Asia’s rice imports are projected flat
Major Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Importers
1,000 TONS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Japan South Taiwan Turkey Jordan Libya Egypt
Korea
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution
database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
21India is projected to remain the top global rice exporter
in 2020; China’s exports continue to increase
MIL. TONS Major Rice Exporters
15.0
13.5 2017
12.0 2018
10.5 2019
9.0
2020
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan China Burma USA
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 forecasts. These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports.
Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
22Cambodia’s rice are exports are projected to continue
to increase in 2020, while Brazil’s exports decline
MIL. TONS Mid-level Long-grain Exporters
2.0
1.8 2017
1.6 2018
1.4
2019
1.2
2020
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Cambodia Uruguay Argentina Paraguay Brazil Guyana
Milled basis. 2019 and 2020 forecasts. These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports.
Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
23Egypt’s exports are projected to partially recover in
2020; Australia’s are projected to be extremely small
Medium- and Short-Grain Exporters
1,000 TONS
400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
300
200
100
0
Australia Egypt EU FSU
2019 and 2020 forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural
Service, USDA, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.
24PART 2
THE U.S. 2019/20
RICE MARKET OUTLOOK
25The U.S. 2019/20 Rice Market:
Main Points
• A weak price outlook for long-grain rice early in 2019,
followed by persistent and heavy rainfall nearly all spring in
much of the South reduced harvested area 15 percent from
a year earlier, with Arkansas reporting the largest area
decline.
• Prevented plantings were record-high, with the largest
proportion in the Delta States, which resulted in the
substantial reduction in rice harvested area reported by
NASS in the September 2019 Crop Production report.
• The persistent rains also delayed plantings and crop
development and hindered farm operations.
26The U.S. 2019/20 Rice Market:
Main Points—Continued
• The 16-percent crop reduction was partially offset by a 53-
percent increase in carryin.
• Continued large shipments of medium- and short-grain rice
to Puerto Rico from China raised the total import projection
to a new record.
• In addition, imports of aromatic rice from both Southeast
Asia and South Asia were ahead of earlier through October.
• Although representing a much smaller volume, imports from
Brazil were also well ahead of a year earlier.
• On balance, total supplies are projected to be down 7
percent from 2018/19 due to the smaller crop.
27The U.S. 2019/20 Rice Market:
Main Points—Continued
• Despite smaller supplies, a 4-percent increase in U.S. all –
rice exports is projected, primarily due to an abnormally
large carryover of outstanding sales from the 2018/19
market year—with outstanding sales from 2018/19 to Mexico
and Iraq especially large.
• Carryover sales to Japan and Haiti were also large.
• And expectations of larger long-grain sales in 2019/20 to key
U.S. markets in Latin America, with sales to Mexico, Haiti,
Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic well ahead of a year
earlier through November 28.
• The smaller crop and reduced total supplies are expected to
lower domestic and residual use of all rice by 9 percent.
28The U.S. 2019/20 Rice Market:
Main Points—Continued
• These supply and use forecasts result in a 24-percent
decline in all rice ending stocks to 33.9 million cwt.
• Movements season-average farm price vary by class and
region:
• Long-grain prices are expected to increase (tighter
supplies).
• California medium- and short-grain prices are projected
to drop (strong global competition and little change in
U.S. supplies).
• Southern medium- and short-grain prices projected to
decline due to weak export demand.
29A 15-percent decrease in harvested area accounts for
most of the projected drop in U.S. rice production in 2019/20
MIL. CWT MILL. ACRES
300 4.0
275 ALL RICE PRODUCTION ALL RICE HARVESTED AREA
3.5
250
225 3.0
200
2.5
175
150 2.0
125
1.5
100
75 1.0
50
0.5
25
0 0.0
81/82 86/87 91/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 15/16 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
2019/20 forecasts. Rough basis. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates,
WAOB, USDA.
30U.S. 2019/20 Rice Production: Main Points
• All reported States decreased plantings, with Arkansas,
Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas reporting the largest drops.
• Yields:
• The all-rice yield of 7,587 pounds per acre is down 104 pounds.
• Yields are projected lower in Louisiana (-7.4%), Texas (-4.6%),
and Missouri (-3.5%).
• But are projected to be slightly higher in California (+0.9%),
• And unchanged in Mississippi, nearly unchanged in Arkansas.
• Production is projected to be 12-24 percent smaller this year in all
reported southern States, primarily due to reduced area.
California’s production is projected decline just 1.2 percent.
• The total U.S. crop of 187.9 million cwt is down 16.2 percent from a
year earlier. Long-grain production is down 22.5 percent, while
combined medium- and short-grain production is up 1 percent.
31U.S. rice imports are projected
to reach another record high in 2019/20
MIL. CWT PERCENT
32 28
IMPORTS 1/ SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2/
28 24
24
20
20
16
16
12
12
8
8
4 4
0 0
82/83 87/88 92/93 97/98 02/03 08/09 12/13 15/16 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
2019/20 are forecasts. 1/ Rough basis. 2/ Does not include seed use.
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
32China, once a major supplier of rice
to Puerto Rico, has returned as a source
TONS
140,000
PUERTO RICO ANY U.S. STATE
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1994/95 97/98 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 16/17 19/20 1/
August-July Market Year
Product-weight. 1/ 2019/20 through October only. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of
Agriculture, Global Agricultural Trade System, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
33And U.S. imports of aromatic rice from Southeast Asia
have risen over the past decade
TONS
500,000
THAILAND VIETNAM
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2008/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
August-July Market Year
Product-weight. Does not include brokens. 1/ 2019/20 through October only. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service,
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Global Agricultural Trade System, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
34U.S. rice supplies are projected to
decrease more than 7 percent in 2019/20
MIL. CWT
350
Carryin Production Imports
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
92/93 95/96 98/99 01/12 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17 19/20
August-July Market Year
2019/20 are forecasts. Rough basis. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates,
WAOB, USDA..
35U.S rice exports are projected to increase
in 2019/20; domestic and residual use to decline
MIL. CWT
150
DOMESTIC & RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS
120
90
60
30
0
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
Rough-rice basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Domestic use includes a residual component .
Sources: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
36Latin America typically accounts for
about 60 percent of total U.S. rice exports
LATIN AMERICA CANADA REST-OF-WORLD
1,000 TONS
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 15/16 18/19
Product-weight. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Global Agricultural
Trade System, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
37And Latin America accounts for
more than 75 percent of U.S. long-grain exports
LATIN AMERICA CANADA REST-OF-WORLD
1,000 TONS
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 18/19
August-July Market Year
Product-weight. Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Global Agricultural Trade System,
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
38The United States has regained market share
in Mexico’s rice market
UNITED STATES SOUTH AMERICA REST-OF-WORLD
1,000 TONS
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Calendar Years
2019 through October only. Product-weight. Source: Trade Data Monitor, https://www.tradedatamonitor.com/
39And in 2019 the United States returned as
the top supplier of rice to Nicaragua
UNITED STATES SOUTH AMERICA
1,000 TONS
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Calendar Years
2019 through October only. Product-weight. Source: Trade Data Monitor, https://www.tradedatamonitor.com/
40But the United States continues to lose market share
in Costa Rica to South American exporters
UNITED STATES SOUTH AMERICA
1,000 TONS
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Calendar Years
2019 through October only. Product-weight. Source: Trade Data Monitor, https://www.tradedatamonitor.com/
41Both U.S. rough- and milled-rice exports are projected
to increase in 2019/20
MIL. CWT
100
MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS
80
60
40
20
0
90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 13/14 16/17 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
Rough basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates,
WAOB, USDA.
42U.S. exports of both classes of rice are
projected to increase slightly in 2019/20
MIL. CWT
120
LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN
100
80
60
40
20
0
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
Rough basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates,
WAOB, USDA.
43U.S. Export Uncertainties in 2019/20
• Will the U.S. continue to regain and the hold its market share in
Mexico and Nicaragua?
• Will South American exporters continue to expand sales to
Colombia and Venezuela and to some Central American
importers—primarily Costa Rica and Panama?
• Will the U.S. sell any more rice to Iraq in 2019/20?
• Will Egypt’s return as a major medium- and short-grain
exporter further reduce U.S. exports in North Africa and the
Middle East?
• What is China’s long-term medium- and short-grain export
potential?
44U.S. all-rice ending stocks are projected to
decrease 24 percent in 2019/20
MIL. CWT PERCENT
60 30
ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE
50 25
40 20
30 15
20 10
10 5
0 0
87/88 90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 16/17 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
Rough basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use
Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
45With U.S. long-grain ending stocks projected to
MILL. CWT decline 49 percent in 2019/20 PERCENT
60 30
ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE
50 25
40 20
30 15
20 10
10 5
0 0
87/88 90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 15/16 019/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
Rough basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use
Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
46While U.S. medium- and short-grain ending stocks are
projected to increase 44 percent in 2019/20
MILL. CWT PERCENT
30 40
ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE
35
30
20
25
20
15
10
10
5
0 0
87/88 90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 16/17 19/20
AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR
Rough basis. 2019/20 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use
Estimates, WAOB, USDA.
47The U.S. long-grain season-average farm price
is projected to increase in 2019/20
$/CWT
30
Long-grain U.S. medium- and short-grain
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990/91 95/96 2000/01 05/06 10/11 13/14 16/17 19/20
2019/20 are forecasts. Source: Quick Stats, USDA, NASS, http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/
48Both California and southern medium- and short-grain season-
average farm prices are expected to decline in 2019/20
$/CWT
30
CALIFORNIA 1/ OTHER STATES 2/
25
20
15
10
5
0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
Market years
2019/20 are forecasts. Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 2008/09
market year. 1/ October-September market year. 2/ August-July market year. Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Texas. Source: Quick Stats data base, USDA., NASS. http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/
49PART 3
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE
U.S. 2020/21 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK.
All forecasts are from USDA’s Long-Term Agricultural Baseline
Projections were released on November 1, 2019.
502020/21 U.S. Rice Market:
Supply-Side Outlook
• Assumes normal weather worldwide and a continuation of current
policies. All baseline forecasts based on the October WASDE.
– Carryin in 2020/21 for all rice is projected to be down 18-19 percent
from 2019/20.
– All rice planted area is expected to increase 14 percent to 2.9
million acres.
– Long-grain plantings are expected to increase 24 percent to 2.2
million acres, while medium and short grain area is projected to
drop 8 percent to 700,000 acres.
– Why is long-grain area projected to expand? A much smaller
carryout from 2019/20 and rising prices in 2019/20.
– The all-rice yield is projected to increases 2 percent to 7,735
pounds per acre based on 10-year trends by class, the highest on
record.
512020/21 U.S. Rice Market:
Domestic Use and Export Outlook
– Total exports of all rice are projected to increase about 2 percent
2020/21, with long-grain accounting for all of the rise—a result of
larger supplies and lower expected U.S. prices in 2020/21.
– Latin America is projected to account for nearly all of the increase in
U.S. long-grain exports in 2020/21, a result of more competitive
prices.
– No growth in medium- and short-grain exports is projected due to
continued sales of low-priced rice by China to the Middle East and
North Africa and the return of Egypt as an exporter to the region.
– U.S. medium- and short-grain sales to Japan, South Korea, and
Taiwan—the largest U.S. market for this class of rice—are projected
to remain unchanged from 2019/20.
522020/21 U.S. Rice Market:
Demand and Ending Stocks
– A nearly 8-percent increase in total domestic and residual use
is projected based on a larger crop and expanded supplies.
– Long-grain accounts for all of the projected increase in total
domestic and residual use in 2020/21.
– Ending stocks of all rice are projected to increase around 35
percent, with long-grain stocks increasing around 60 percent
and medium- and short-grain stocks rising 6-7 percent.
532020/21 U.S. Rice Market: Prices
– The Long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) is
projected to drop to $10.50 per cwt, mostly due to larger
supplies and little increase in global prices.
– The Southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is
projected to decline to $11.00 per cwt based on the lower
long-grain prices.
– The California medium- and short-grain SAFP is
projected to decline to $17.50 per cwt based on stronger
global competition, mostly in the Middle East and North
Africa from China and Egypt.
54For More Information,
Please Go To:
• The Economic Research Service Home Page http://
www.ers.usda.gov
• World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
• Grains: World Markets and Trade Reports
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade
• Production, Supply and Distribution data base
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home
• The Rice Topics Page
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/rice.aspx
• Long-Term Agricultural Projections 2020/21-2029/30
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm
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