R Model Portfolio January 2021 - Institutional Equity Research - Reliance Securities
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Institutional Equity Research January 05, 2021
R Model Portfolio
January 2021
Binod Modi
Head Strategy
Contact: 022 4303 4626/9870009382
Email: binod.modi@relianceada.com
D. Vijiya Rao
Senior Research Associate
Contact : (022) 4303 4633/9321404056
Email : vijiya.rao@relianceada.com
1Domestic Equities Stayed Upbeat; Outlook Remains Strong
Domestic equities continued to remain upbeat in Dec’20, as the benchmark indices recorded sharp rebound despite threat from new COVID-19 strain and business
restrictions due to rapid rise in new coronavirus cases in the USA and European countries. Nonetheless, with consistent improvement in COVID-19 recovery rates
and improvement in key economic indicators, India continued to attract FPIs flow with net inflow of Rs620bn from FPIs, while the DIIs sold equities to the tune of
Rs373bn during the month. Notably, soft monetary policy stance by the global bankers along with additional fiscal stimulus worth US$900bn announced by the USA
and commencement of vaccination process in several countries bolstered the investors’ confidence.
While the Nifty and BSE 500 delivered ~7.8% return, RSec Model Portfolio delivered similar return during the month. Similarly, with a return of 14.9%, RSec Model
Portfolio outperformed Nifty and BSE 500 by 850bps and 620bps, respectively in 2020 led by our strategy of getting overweight on pharma and IT and underweight
on BFSI for the large part of the year.
In our view, domestic equities should continue to do well in 2021 as well led by sustainable inflows from the FPIs on the back of soft monetary policy stance of the
global bankers, robust recovery in corporate earnings and continued improvement in economic activities with the progress on vaccination roll-out. We expect Nifty
earnings to grow by 4%, 39% and 20% in FY21E, FY22E and FY23E, respectively and our 2021 Nifty target is 14,900. (please refer our 2021 India Strategy Note).
Broad Based Rally Seen in Dec’20
Favourable global markets and stimulus package announced by the USA along with continued improvement in key economic data propelled markets to witness
sharp up-move in Dec’20 with all sectoral indices contributing to the rally. Cyclical like Metals & Real Estate and IT witnessed stronger double-digit recovery during the
month. Financials, which gained 35% in Nov’20, continued to move higher and recorded 6% gain, with the PSBs recording double-digit gain during the month. In our
view, Pharma, Automobiles, Building Materials, Financials (small private banks and HFCs) and cyclical like Metals and Real Estate should continue to do well in 2021.
3QFY21 Earnings & Union Budget – Near-term Key Events
In addition to huge liquidity, a sharp earnings rebound in 2QFY21 with consistent improvement in key domestic economic indicators helped the Nifty to witness sharp
rebound in recent months. As Nifty currently trades at a significant premium to its historical average, sustainability of earnings recovery is crucial. While 2QFY21
earnings growth was primarily driven by pent-up demand, 3QFY21 corporate earnings will offer clarity about the regular demand. Additionally, the Union Budget
will offer clarity over the status of capital expenditures and budgetary allocation towards the key sectors.
Portfolio Reshuffling: Replacing Biocon with Cadila
Given imminent opportunity in injectable business in the USA and possible double-digit improvement in domestic formulation business, Cadila Healthcare is
expected to see healthy traction in the ensuing quarters. Further, the company is also in the fray of capitalizing on the significant opportunity in COVID-19 vaccine
space, which could prove to be a solid trigger for the company in the medium-to-long-term.
2Exhibit 1: Updated R Model Portfolio – January 2021
Market Cap* Price* Investment Value* Weight in Portfolio*
Company Sector No. of shares
(Rs Cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%)
HDFC Bank 7,86,301 BFSI 1,436 10 14,363 8.6
ICICI Bank 3,69,175 BFSI 535 21 11,236 6.8
State Bank of India 2,52,700 BFSI 275 32 8,798 5.3
HDFC Ltd 4,62,676 BFSI 2,559 3 7,676 4.6
LIC Housing Finance 19,303 BFSI 361 29 10,476 6.3
HCL Technologies 2,60,091 IT 946 9 8,515 5.1
Tech Mahindra 95,020 IT 973 9 8,759 5.3
Titan Co 1,37,878 Consumer 1,567 6 9,403 5.7
Dabur India 94,875 Consumer 534 8 4,272 2.6
Indian Energy Exchange 6,575 Power 228 15 3,419 2.1
Laurus Labs 18,966 Pharmaceuticals 353 25 8,829 5.3
Cadila Healthcare 49,657 Pharmaceuticals 477 22 10,489 6.3
IPCA Laboratories 27,515 Pharmaceuticals 2,189 4 8,755 5.3
Mahindra & Mahindra 91,219 Automobile 721 14 10,088 6.1
Ashok Leyland 30,383 Automobile 95 109 10,404 6.3
Bharti Airtel 2,81,043 Telecommuniction 510 26 13,252 8.0
SRF 33,743 Chemicals 5,574 2 11,148 6.7
Cash (Balancing) 6,510 4
Grand Total 1,66,392 100
Source: RSec Research; Note: * The prices and other data as of 31 Deember 2020
3Exhibit 2: New Inclusion into R Model Portfolio Exhibit 3: Stock Removed from the R Model Portfolio
Weight on date of Re- Weight on date of
Sr No Company Sr No Company
balancing (%) Re-balancing (%)
1 Cadila Healthcare 6.3 1 Biocon 6.2
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
Exhibit 4: Changes in Holdings
Sr No Company Previous (No. Of shares) Old Weight (%) New (No. Of shares) New Weight (%)
No Changes
Source: RSec Research
4Exhibit 5: Absolute Performance of R Model Portfolio v/s NIFTY 50 (Since Oct ’14) Exhibit 6: R Model Portfolio Out/Under-performance Relative to Nifty
180 10.0
7.9
7.7
170 5.4
3.8 4.4
160 5.0
2.3 2.7
1.9 2.1
150 1.5
0.8 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.0
0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1
140 0.0
(0.1) (0.1) (0.4)(0.1)(0.1)
130 (1.3) (0.8) (1.2)(1.7)(1.6) (1.5)
(2.2) (2.1)
120 (5.0) (3.2) (3.4)
(5.0)
110
(7.5)
100 (10.0)
90 (10.6)
80 Aug-18 (15.0)
Aug-16
Sep-19
Sep-20
Aug-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Apr'15 Oct'15 Apr'16 Oct'16 Apr'17 Oct'17 Apr'18 Oct'18 Dec'18 Feb'19 Apr'19 June'19 Aug'19 Oct'19 Dec'19 Feb'20 Apr'20 Jun'20 Aug'20 Oct'20 Dec'20
Jun-19
Jun-20
Nov-16
Nov-15
May-18
May-16
Jan-15
Nov-17
Feb-18
Feb-16
Apr-15
Jul-15
May-17
Mar-19
Mar-20
Feb-17
to to to to to to to
Jun'15 Dec'15 Jun'16 Dec'16 Jun'17 Dec'17 Jun'18
RSec Model Protfolio NIFTY Outperformance / Underperformance relative to Nifty 50
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
Exhibit 7: R Model Portfolio v/s BSE 500 - Absolute performance Exhibit 8: R Model Portfolio Outperformance / Underperformance relative to BSE 500
20.0 4.0 3.5
15.0
10.0 3.0
2.2
5.0 2.0
2.0 1.7
-
1.0 1.0
-5.0 0.8 0.7 0.7
1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2
-10.0 0.1 0.0
-15.0 -
-20.0 -0.3 -0.4
-1.0 -0.6 -0.6
-25.0
-30.0 -1.3 -1.4
-2.0
-2.1
Apr'19
May'19
Feb'20
Apr'20
May'20
Aug'19
Sep'19
Mar'20
Oct'19
Aug'20
Sep'20
Oct'20
Dec'19
Dec'20
Jun'20
June'19
Nov'19
Jan'20
Nov'20
July'19
July'20
-3.0
Apr'19
May'19
Feb'20
Apr'20
May'20
Aug'19
Sep'19
Mar'20
Oct'19
Aug'20
Sep'20
Oct'20
Dec'19
Dec'20
Jun'20
June'19
Nov'19
Jan'20
Nov'20
July'19
July'20
RSec Model Protfolio BSE 500
Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research
5Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
HDFC Bank* f With improved collection efficiency, superior asset quality and low credit cost, HDFC SBI* f Despite the challenging environment, the bank continues to remain the best bet amongst
Bank (HDFCB) is poised to deliver better operating performance, going ahead. the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) on the back of a formidable liability franchise, well
performing subsidiaries and better capital positioning.
f Franchise strength, strong liability traction and a strong focus on digital initiatives,
data analytics and automation will help the bank to improve its market share and f The recent regulatory guidelines on restructuring and current account operations are
deliver market-leading advances growth. expected to be positive for the bank. Further, with PCR of 88% as on Sep 2020 and better
capitalization, bank stands on a firm ground in ongoing challenging scenario.
f Momentum in advances will be led by both corporate and retail aided by favourable
f At CMP, the stock trades at 0.9x of FY22E and 0.9x of FY23E adjusted book value.
cost of funds/deposit and better offers, respectively.
f Provisioning buffers (including floating and contingency provisioning) are adequate f HDFC has been successfully maintaining spreads and NIM across interest rate cycles.
HDFC Ltd.*
for any contingency due to the pandemic. We expect it to deliver superior risk- Given the strength of its liability franchise, we think that this interest rate cycle will be no
adjusted asset quality with much lower credit cost vs. peers. different.
f Quality underwriting has helped HDFCB to demonstrate better resolution rates f HDFC’s balance sheet is one of the strongest, especially given the kind of economic value
and deliver superior risk-adjusted return ratios (vs. peers) even during the current of its subsidiaries. Ability to monetize this economic value and create contingency buffers
pandemic. provides further strength to its balance sheet.
f In individual mortgage book, its collection efficiency of ~96.3% in September corroborates
f At CMP, the stock trades at 3.5x of FY22E and 3.0x of FY23E adjusted book value.
its claim that majority of its customers opted for moratorium just out of caution to conserve
cash.
ICICI Bank* f Better portfolio-mix in terms of retail book, which is secured (~50% mortgages) and f At CMP, the stock trades at 4.2x of FY22E and 3.9x of FY23E adjusted book value.
improved share of corporate book to A- and above rated corporate are likely to
help the ICICI Bank to deliver relatively superior asset quality.
LIC Housing f Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) are expected to witness healthy traction in the coming
f Apart from making additional provisioning, the bank has also maintained a high Finance months led by visible recovery in real estate markets and softening of cost of funds (CoF).
PCR on its NPA exposure. It expects the credit cost to normalize from FY22 onwards. f LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) disbursements returned to pre-COVID level (up 2% YoY and
up 2.5x QoQ) and witnessed 22% YoY growth in Sept’20 and 38% YoY growth in’ Oct’20.
f Its collection efficiency and demand resolution have been improving significantly
Disbursals in builders’ loan category were primarily made to the existing customers and
on MoM basis with retail/credit card demand resolution already coming back to were construction-linked.
~97% of pre-COVID level. Restructuring in the corporate book is expected to be ~1%
f Incremental CoF declined by 99bps QoQ to 5.81% in 2QFY21 primarily on account of
of total loan book. We see significant upside from normalization in credit cost and renegotiation of bank loans and drop in NCD rates. It is expected to decline further, going
the bank’s ability to deliver superior NIM once the higher liquidity on the balance forward as high cost liabilities are replaced with low cost liabilities. Further, NIM is expected
sheet starts coming down. to remain either stable or improve slightly, going forward.
f We expect disbursal to witness strong growth 2HFY21E, which along with likely reduction in
CoF is likely to aid its profitability in subsequent quarters.
f At CMP, the stock trades at less than 0.9x of its FY22 consensus book value, which looks to
be quite attractive.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
6Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
HCL* f HCL Technologies (HCLT) reported strong revenue growth and margin resiliency Titan* f A sharp recovery in its jewellery division in 2QFY21 was encouraging. However,
in 2QFY21. Its organic revenue growth prospects remain bright for FY22E/FY23E concerns over lower footfalls and uncertain discretionary consumption outlook
given its healthy deal funnel and superior execution track record. continue to remain as key challenges in the near-term.
f Additionally, concerns around software/IP business are likely to recede, going f However, Titan’s strong pricing power in bridal and studded jewellery is likely to
forward with consistent performance by the acquired software business. drive meaningful expansion in margin. Its balance sheet remains strong, which
continues to support franchisees and vendors in these uncertain times.
f Further, market share gain through vendor consolidation and operational
prudence along with focused cost optimization measures bode well for HCLT f Titan remains one of the fastest growing companies in the consumer space with
in the long-run. multiple growth levers and sectoral tailwinds.
f In the medium-term, HCLT is well-placed amongst its peers on the back of f At CMP, the stock trades at 72x of FY22E earnings.
stable management, diversified clients’ portfolio, steady large deal wins and
largely stable margin profile.
Dabur India* f Dabur India is a structural growth story led by market share gains across the core
f At CMP, the stock trades at 16.5x of FY23 EPS.
categories mainly supported by initiatives on distribution, contemporisation of
product offerings and higher rural resilience.
Tech Mahindra f TechM is likely to get immensely benefited owing to expansion of 5G value
f The company is currently riding on rising consumer demand for immunity
chain across networks and IT services. A likely pick-up in investments by
boosters and hygiene products, which has resulted in sharp increase in sales
communication service providers and higher 5G adoption by enterprise bode
well for the company. of Chawyanprash, Honey and OTC products.
f Expectation of strong recovery in BPO business, stability around network f Inflation in the agri-linked raw materials may impact the margins but price
services revenue, and growth in BFSI, healthcare, and technology verticals are increase, rising contribution from high margin products and cost rationalization
likely to be the key revenue drivers for the company in near-to-medium term. measures will help to sustain margins.
f Further, higher off-shoring, reduction in subcontractor expenses and traction f At CMP, the stock trades at 49.5x of FY22E earnings.
in acquired entities are likely to aid margin expansion in the ensuing quarters.
f Further, a widened valuation discount compared to Tier-I peers also offers
comfort.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 15x of FY23 EPS.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates (Contd.)
7Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
Indian Energy f Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) has a near monopoly in India’s short-term power Cadila f Cadila is expected to see healthy traction in US businesses, as it plans to
Exchange* trading market (with ~95% of the exchange volume traded), led by superior Healthcare* venture into complex injectable business. Further, addition of biosimilars
execution, cost optimization and transparent price discovery. for the emerging markets is expected to boost growth, going forward.
f India’s power sector is currently undergoing transition driven by increasing f Further, its net debt position significantly improved in 1HFY21 (down 40%
reliance on short-term contracts and electricity spot markets. IEX, given its from FY20) by utilizing the proceeds of QIP in consumer wellness business
dominance, is in a pole position to exploit the surge in spot power volumes. and internal accruals amid better working capital management.
f With the launch of RTM (Real Time Market) in June’20 and LDC (Long Duration f Its domestic formulation business is also expected to grow in double-
Contracts) (to be launched soon), IEX‘s market opportunity has broadly doubled digit hereon due to new launches and restructuring of businesses by
to 110 billion units. Widening of the product profile is expected to fortify IEX’s rationalizing the slow-moving SKUs.
positioning in the overall market.
f Further, completion of Phase-III clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine and
f At CMP, the stock trades at 29.9x of FY22E earnings. likely approval from the government is likely to be strong trigger for the
company, which can lead to sharp rerating.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 24.5x of FY22E earnings.
Laurus Labs* f Laurus Labs is a leading pharma company having strong presence in APIs for
Antiretrovirals (ARVs) and formulation business.
IPCA f IPCA is a therapy leader in domestic market for anti-malaria with a market
f The company expects to maintain its strong performance on the back of
diversified portfolio, increased customer base, addition of capacity for API/ Laboratories* share of around 34% and is growing fast in the international market as well.
formulations and improved operating leverage.
f Approvals from USFDA for relaxation of its import alert against its Ratlam
f The management commentary was quite strong in its 1QFY21 and 2QFY21 (API), Pithampur & Piparia unit for the supply of Chloroquine Phosphate
results earnings concall. Based on growth visibility in formulations as well (API) and Hydroxychloroquine Sulphate (API & tablets) to the US markets
as API segment, Laurus is confident of sustaining the healthy earnings are significant for its generic & API exports.
momentum, going forward.
f Given the strong outlook for generic & API exports, the expected uptick
f At CMP, the stock trades at 21.2x of FY22E earnings.
in the tender business aided by contribution from anti-malarials and the
market beating mid-teen growth in domestic formulations, we expect
operating leverage to improve further.
f At CMP, the stock trades at 23.9/20.8x its FY22E/FY23E earnings.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
(Contd.)
8Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments
M&M f Ongoing healthy tractor volume along with likely strong outperformance in Bharti Airtel* f Bharti Airtel has been reporting a relatively stronger retention of its revenue
the coming quarters is the single biggest trigger for Mahindra & Mahindra market share. It enjoys a comfortable leverage vis-à-vis its peers.
(M&M). f Bharti’s execution has been commendable in the last few quarters, which is
f Fundamental parameters remain favourable for tractor segment. M&M’s evident from a strong 16% EBITDA growth in India mobile business during last
segmental profitability from tractor segment is high enough (~60% of two quarters.
operating profit is attributable to Farm segment) to support overall business. f A key overhang of AGR dues is passed now after the Supreme Court in a
landmark judgment allowed the company to pay AGR dues over the period
f We believe that the government’s focus on agri sector and rural thrust
of 10 years.
would help faster recovery in rural markets in FY21E. In tractor segment
also, M&M is expected to regain the lost market share albeit partially in f At CMP, the stock trades at 8x and 7x of FY22E and FY23E EV/EBITDA, respectively.
2HFY21E.
SRF f We expect SRF’s chemical business to witness decent growth in 3QFY21 on the
f Strategic decision on capital allocation, focus on core business and
back of resurgence of demand for refrigerants. Technical textile business is
investment, growing high-margin tractor segment and likely recovery in
likely to show marginal up-tick owing to revival in auto sales volume. However,
automobile segment would result in steady expansion in M&M’s valuation
margin in packaging business is likely to taper off due to seasonality.
multiple, going forward.
f SRF’s revenue/EBITDA/PBT reached 47%/55%/61% of our FY21 estimates in
1HFY21. Looking ahead, the company expects the margin in packaging and film
Ashok Leyland f We believe higher-than-expected double-digit decline in M&HCV volume segment to soften, which is in line with our assumptions for 2HFY21E. We believe
in FY20 and expectation of similar decline in FY21E have already been SRF is one of the few companies, which will post pre-tax earnings growth in FY21E
factored in.
f SRF’s diversified business portfolio consists of technical textiles, chemicals,
f Healthy agri output and government’s focus on infrastructure to revive packaging films and others. Its revenue growth is expected to be driven by 18%
economy are likely to bring back cheers for the economy in 2HFY21. revenue CAGR in chemicals segment and 14% revenue CAGR in packaging films
segment, while revenue from technical textiles segment is expected to clock a
f Pent-up demand of previous 3 years would be the single biggest catalyst
nominal 1% CAGR over FY20-FY23E.
for strong revival by the end of FY21E.
f We believe chemical business’ revenue CAGR of 18% (FY20-FY23E) will be driven
f We see AL as a multi-bagger opportunity and at current valuation, as risk
by specialty chemical backed by a strong pipeline of innovative products for
reward appears to be highly favourable despite short-term hiccups.
international markets. Specialty chemical business is focused on agrochemical
f At CMP, the stock trades at 10.5x of FY23E EPS. and pharmaceuticals. The management expects the specialty chemical
business to see 20-25% sales growth in FY21E.
f In recent development, SRF has commissioned its BOPET film line in Thailand at
a cost of US$19mn. At CMP, the stock trades at 25.1x of FY23E EPS.
Note: * Valuations are taken from Bloomberg estimates
9Binod
Digitally signed by Binod Kumar Modi
DN: c=IN, o=Personal, title=3026,
pseudonym=83f141887ea5611cae89
ea9201c89604f51ddd1e,
Kumar
2.5.4.20=6274c6649035dd5b6b46649
6cc656358d274dbec9dfde7f091839d
7a18664df2, postalCode=410206,
st=Maharashtra,
serialNumber=dbb78a45d7a238b221
Modi
1c6fce27ce198baf3cb8574ebd4dffb8
2ee67b9835310e, cn=Binod Kumar
Modi
Date: 2021.01.05 16:58:56 +05'30'
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