REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC

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REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
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                          Reinforcing
                          collective strength
                          and stability

                          South Africa –
                          Major Banks Analysis

PwC’s analysis of major
banks’ results to
31 December 2010

March 2011
REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
II South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
Table of Contents

              Overview                                                             2

              Combined results summary                                             4

              Economic outlook                                                     6

              Net interest income                                                  8

              Non-interest income                                                  9

              Efficiency                                                         10

              Adapting to new realities in a post-crisis environment             12

              Asset quality                                                      14

              Capital and funding                                                18

              Key banking statistics – Annual                                    22

              Key banking statistics – Semi 2010                                 23

              Key banking statistics –Semi 2009                                  24

              Industry statistics                                                26

              Contact details                                                    29

                                                    South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 1
REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
Overview

    Annual combined headline earnings up 12.9%

    Average return on equity 14.5%

    Bad debt expenses down 31.2%

    Core earnings down 2.2%

    Efficiency down 5.0%

Bank results –                             Revenue growth is                          • Pressure on fee income, partly due
overview                                   challenging                                  to less lending activity.

South Africa’s big four banks’ or          The revenue growth outlook is less         All of these trends suggest that the
major banks’ (Absa, FirstRand,             rosy, and this points to the challenges    pressure on bank revenues will
Nedbank and Standard Bank) full-           faced by the banks as they come            continue.
year results for the past year reinforce   to grips with the new post-global
once again the collective strength         financial crisis (GFC) reality, referred   Expenses rose 11.5% in 2010 and
and profitability of the South African     to by many as the ‘new normal’. There      consequently, cost-to-income ratios
banking system. Although there             are at least five separate sources of      came under pressure, rising to 58.6%
were differences in the performances       pressure on revenue for the banks,         from 55.8% in 2009. All this means
of the individual banks, combined          evident from their results:                that core earnings (earnings before
headline earnings increased by 12.9%                                                  bad debt expenses) decreased by
to R33.9bn on an annualised basis.         • Margin pressure as historically low      R1.7bn (2.2%).
The average return on equity was             interest rates are maintained.
14.5%, compared to 13.3% in 2009.                                                     No wonder then, that banks are
The largest single contributing factor     • Low growth in both demand and            giving serious attention to cost
to profit growth was the reduction in        availability of credit given the         control. All banks have stated that
bad debt expenses (down R10.9bn              strength of economic activity in         cost control and efficiency remain
or 31.2%) as lower interest rates            general.                                 among their top priorities for the
helped reduce the inflow of new                                                       current year as they battle to get their
non-performing loans and general           • An increased cost of funding,            efficiency ratios down to pre-2009
economic conditions improved.                as banks’ funding profiles are           levels. However, political turmoil
                                             lengthened; with no reprieve on          and other inflationary pressures
                                             the cost of retail funding through       will make this year tough going. But
                                             deposits.                                cost control is an imperative – and
                                                                                      is one of the reasons why the banks’
                                           • Subdued trading income, driven           investment in technology to improve
                                             by continuing low transaction            efficiency is essential as they seek to
                                             volumes and limited risk taking.         reduce costs.

2 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
The regulatory
environment continues                             The Minister 0f Finance surprised some
to play an important
role                                              by saying, “I have met with the chief
                                                  executives of our banks to take up this
The banks are also having to cope
with a period of unprecedented                    issue (bank charges, the complexity of the
regulatory change, together with
levels of political scrutiny not seen             payment system) and I believe it is time
before. Higher liquidity and capital
requirements under Basel III will                 to put in place measures that will ensure
inevitably increase funding costs
and put further pressure on returns               that banking charges are fairly set, are
on equity. In South Africa’s case
in particular, it has been widely                 transparent and do not create undue
publicised that given the shortage
of highly liquid instruments and                  hardship.”
the structural imbalances in the
economy, many banks will likely be
unable to meet the new liquidity
requirements. As such, it is a positive
step that the banks, regulators and
National Treasury are working             Banks could have supposed that the         In a deleveraging world, and with
together to come up with the best         new framework would be largely             new capital and funding restrictions,
possible solution for South Africa.       similar to what they have been             South African banks will need to be
                                          accustomed to, but for the mention         more selective in finding new ways
In addition to dealing with the           of bank fees in the new framework.         to connect with customers to drive
requirements of Basel III, banks          Most banks rely increasingly on non-       revenue and profitable growth.
will have to contend with the new         interest income (fees) to bolster their    Large investments in technology to
‘Twin Peaks’ approach to financial        revenue lines and any regulatory           improve efficiency are clearly one
regulation as announced by the            changes on this front would be a           vehicle for this – and indeed the
Minister of Finance in the recent         severe blow.                               depth of customer information that
Budget Speech. Under the revised                                                     will be available in a technologically–
regulatory framework, the South           Given the regulatory uncertainty, it is    enabled banking system will enable
African Reserve Bank (SARB)               not surprising to see capital adequacy     extraordinary precision in both
will be given lead responsibility         ratios creeping upwards, with the          marketing and credit assessment. The
for prudential regulation and the         average for Tier 1 now at 12.8%            banks are pushing the mobile handset
Financial Services Board (FSB) for        (2009: 12.4%), which is well north of      revolution for the same reasons as
consumer protection. As part of this      the minimum required. Most banks           this is seen as a potentially high
redistribution of responsibility, the     are cautious when dealing with the         growth area that does not require
mandate of the FSB will be expanded       question of what will happen to their      significant infrastructure investment,
to include the market conduct of          excess capital. This is likely to remain   given that the target market was
retail banking services, including        an issue until there is more clarity on    previously unbanked. In addition,
developing principles for how banks       what the new rules will be.                the big four banks are increasing
should set their fees, how these                                                     their focus on the lower income
fees should be reported and what                                                     sectors as the battle for market share
constitutes fair behaviour. Within the    Looking ahead                              intensifies, given the importance of
FSB, a retail banking services market                                                growth in this sector.
conduct regulator will be established.    South Africa has been fortunate in
This new regulator will focus on          that our banks avoided much of the         In the pursuit of growth, offshore
structural market issues and banking      fallout from the GFC experienced           expansion into Africa remains very
fees and will work closely with the       by banks elsewhere. However, our           much in play, with each bank taking
National Credit Regulator, which has      consumers and households were              a different approach. Suffice to say,
a complementary role in regulating        similarly over-leveraged and as            history has shown that this is an
the extension of credit. The SARB’s       this slowly returns to normal, they        area where a precise understanding
mandate for financial stability will      are looking to be more cautious in         of the chosen market - in contrast
be underpinned by a new Financial         relation to debt; which was a steady       to ubiquity of scope and reach - is
Stability Oversight Committee, co-        source of both revenue and profit          fundamentally important.
chaired by the Governor of the SARB       growth for the banks over the past
and the Minister of Finance.              two decades. Increased demand for
                                          commercial and corporate borrowing
                                          may help offset this.

                                                                                            South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 3
REINFORCING COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND STABILITY - SOUTH AFRICA - MAJOR BANKS ANALYSIS - PWC
Combined results summary

Combined annual results

Rm                                               2010          2009    2010 v 2009         2H10         1H10    2H10 v 1H10
 Net interest income                            85,279       82,341         3.57%         43,338       41,941        3.33%
 Non interest income                           105,322       97,951         7.53%         54,787       50,535        8.41%
 Total operating income                        190,601      180,292         5.72%         98,125       92,476        6.11%
 Total operating expenses                     -116,468      -104,467       11.49%        -61,550      -54,918       12.08%
 Core earnings                                  74,133       75,825        -2.23%         36,575       37,558       -2.62%
 Impairment charge                             -24,262       -35,254      -31.18%        -11,063      -13,199      -16.18%
 Other income/(expenses)                         1,206        1,600       -24.63%           618          588         5.10%
 Income tax expenses                           -13,517       -10,706       26.26%         -7,155       -6,362       12.46%
 Profit for the period                          37,560       31,465        19.37%         18,975       18,585        2.10%

 Attributable earnings                          40,697       29,435        38.26%         23,884       16,813       42.06%
 Headline earnings                              33,914       30,029        12.94%         17,070       16,844        1.34%

 Return on equity                               14.5%         13.3%                       14.8%        14.3%
 Return on average assets                        1.1%          0.9%                        1.1%         1.0%

This analysis presents the combined      trading counterparties, and shares          FirstRand in particular had a
results of the major banks in South      owned by policyholder funds.                significant headline earnings
Africa (Absa, FirstRand, Nedbank and                                                 adjustment in the last six months of
Standard Bank). Investec, the other      A number of banks refer to these            2010 as it concluded the unbundling
major player in the South African        adjustments as ‘normalised’                 of Momentum to MMI Holdings
market, has not been included in         adjustments. We have used these             shareholders. This impacts the
this comparison due to its unique        normalised results in our analysis in       comparability of numbers as the
business mix, different reporting        this document.                              comparative earnings of Momentum,
currency and period.                                                                 in accordance with IFRS 5, are
                                         Headline earnings is a way of               excluded from the amounts presented
The results of the banks analysed        dividing the IFRS-reported profit           and disclosed as assets held for sale.
contain a number of complexities         between re-measurements that are
that require explanation. In order to    more closely aligned to the operating
present information that reflects the    and trading activities of the entity,
underlying trends and performance        and the platform used to create those
of their businesses going forward, the   results.
banks seek to eliminate once-off or
non-recurring items in order to assess   For South African banks this gives
their performance in the course of       rise to a number of adjustments,
normal operations. This includes the     including the removal of gains and
reinstatement of gains and/or losses     losses relating to hedge contracts
on the banks own shares held by          that do not meet the requirements
group entities that are not permitted    of International Accounting
to be recognised under International     Standard 39 for hedge accounting
Financial Reporting Standards            or are not fully effective, permanent
(IFRSs) (known as Treasury shares)       impairments of equity investments
which result from hedged share           and goodwill, and gains or losses
remuneration schemes, own shares         on transactions outside the normal
purchased to hedge derivative            course of business such as disposals
transactions entered into with           of business investments.

4 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Combined results of six month periods

                                                  Combined results                 Comparative movement
Rm                                        2H10       1H10        2H09      1H09            2H           1H
Net interest income                      43,338     41,941      42,411    39,930         2.2%         5.0%
Non-interest income                      54,787     50,535      52,611    45,340         4.1%        11.5%
Total operating income                   98,125     92,476      95,022    85,270         3.3%         8.5%
Total operating expenses                -61,550    -54,918     -55,023   -49,444        11.9%        11.1%
Core earnings                            36,575     37,558      39,999    35,826        -8.6%         4.8%
Impairment charge                       -11,063    -13,199     -15,539   -19,715       -28.8%       -33.1%
Other income                                618        588         176     1,424       251.1%       -58.7%
Income tax expenses                      -7,155     -6,362      -6,472    -4,234        10.6%        50.3%
Profit for the period                   18,975     18,585       18,164   13,301         4.5%         39.7%

Attributable earnings                   23,884     16,813       16,293   13,142        46.6%         27.9%
Headline earnings                       17,070     16,844       16,750   13,279         1.9%         26.8%

Return on equity                         14.8%      14.3%       14.8%     12.0%         -0.4%        19.3%
Return on average assets                  1.1%       1.0%        1.1%      0.8%          8.3%        28.2%

                                                                           South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 5
Economic outlook
    By Dr Roelof Botha

The global economy entered 2011           GDP growth forecasts for 2011 for selected high-income countries and
with the knowledge that the recovery      emerging markets
had gained substantial momentum
during the second half of the             High-income countries           (%)               Emerging Markets      (%)
previous year.                            Sweden                                     4.2    China                             8.9
                                          Australia                                  3.3    India                             8.6
Within five quarters of the official
                                          US                                         3.0    Chile                             5.9
end of the recession, annualised real
economic growth surged to above           Germany                                    2.4    Brazil                            4.5
or close to its long-term potential in    UK                                         1.9    Turkey                            4.5
several high-income countries and         France                                     1.5    Singapore                         4.1
emerging markets.                         Japan                                      1.4    Russia                            4.0
                                          Spain                                      0.4    South Korea                       3.9
Although it is evident that a number
of European countries may require         Ireland                                -1.1       South Africa                      3.7
fiscal discipline for at least two to     Greece                                 -4.1       Mexico                            3.0
three fiscal cycles (including Greece,
Portugal, Ireland and Spain), the
European Union’s initial bridging        Sources: Economist poll, national budgets
facility of €750bn has already
provided hope for a relatively swift
return to financial soundness for the
Eurozone as a whole.                                  Economy poised for higher growth
Global recovery well-                                 despite some obstacles
entrenched

Further proof of the sustainability      Welcome recovery of                               The SARB even expressed its concern
of the global economic recovery          credit extension                                  at the slow rate of recovery of the
from the short but sharp recession                                                         economy in a recent policy statement,
comes from the news of a return to                                                         specifically singling out the “strict
formal sector job creation in most       The stubbornness of credit extension              lending criteria” applied by banks
economies (including the US).            in responding to the return to positive           as a constraint on the growth of
                                         real GDP growth (which occurred as                household consumption expenditure.
The World Bank estimates global          early as the third quarter of 2009),
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)             clearly defeated the objective of                 Growth in credit extension by
to have increased by 3.9% in             monetary policy during 2010. The                  banks started slowing in 2007 and
2010, whilst authoritative global        most accommodating monetary                       continued decelerating until it
macroeconomic forecasting agencies       policy in almost four decades was                 reached negative territory in 2009.
are forecasting healthy growth rates     called into being by the lethargy of              The stagnation in loan activity by
for virtually all of the emerging        money supply growth and private                   financial institutions was consistent
markets and the largest high-income      sector credit extension over the past             with the fairly dramatic decline in
countries.                               two years.                                        money supply growth during 2009.

6 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Recovery of private sector credit extention
(percentage annualised growth)

    25.0

    20.0

    15.0

    10.0

     5.0

     0
           Q3          Q4   Q1   Q2          Q3   Q4      Q1    Q2          Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2          Q3     Q4

                2007                  2008                           2009                       2010

Source – SARB

According to the SARB, the                             Growth drivers                                       • The lowest money market interest
continuation of subdued money                                                                                 rates in almost four decades
market activity during the first half of               Since the second half of 2010, the
2010 was related, inter alia, to a low                 equity market has also witnessed                     • An upward trend in commodity
inflationary environment, relatively                   higher levels of activity, with its value              prices (particularly metals,
low returns on money market                            of market capitalisation growing at                    minerals and oil)
deposits and impaired balance sheets                   healthy rates. This growth reflects
in both the corporate and household                    the impact of lower bond yields,                     • A continuation of the recovery of
sectors.                                               lower money market rates, higher                       inventory levels
                                                       profit expectations and progress in
A welcome return to positive growth                    reducing the government’s budget                     • Continued progress with
in credit extension by the banking                     deficit.                                               government infrastructure
sector was made in the second                                                                                 programmes
quarter of 2010, although the rate                     Prospects for a swift return to the pre-
of expansion has remained rather                       recession economic growth trajectory                 • An expansionary fiscal policy
muted. All types of bank loans began                   of above 4% have been buoyed by                        stance, particularly in terms of job
recording positive growth during the                   the presence of a number of rather                     creation initiatives
third quarter of 2010.                                 impressive macroeconomic growth
                                                       drivers, including the following:                    • A return to formal sector
                                                                                                              employment creation
                                                       • Prospects for relatively low
                                                         inflation during 2011                              Against these positives, however,
                                                                                                            the potential impact of higher oil
                                                       • A return to healthy real growth                    and commodity prices fuelled by the
                                                         rates for household disposable                     political turmoil in the Middle East
                                                         incomes                                            should be considered.

                                                                                                                   South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 7
Net interest income

                                                                                      Combined results
                                                                 2H10                     1H10                    2H09               1H09
 Gross loans and acceptances (Rm)                            2,215,547               2,205,122                2,179,754          2,179,665
 Net interest margin (% of average interest                       3.8%                    3.7%                    3.6%               3.4%
 bearing assets)

Net interest income
Rm                                                                                                                         %
800,000                                                                                                                   4.5%

700,000                                                                                                                   4.0%

600,000                                                                                                                   3.5%
                                                                                                                          3.0%
500,000
                                                                                                                          2.5%
400,000
                                                                                                                          2.0%
300,000
                                                                                                                          1.5%
200,000                                                                                                                   1.0%
100,000                                                                                                                   0.5%
      -                                                                                                                   0.0%
            1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10

                        ASA                       FSR                       NED                         SBK
                    Gross loans and acceptances           Net interest margin (% of average interest earning assets)
Source – PwC Analysis

Net interest income remains a                     • Deposit re-pricing – To attract                • Credit impairment – A significant
principal revenue driver for the major              funds from both new customers                    reduction in credit impairment as
local banks, contributing on average                and to extend the term of the                    a result of the relief afforded to
46.6% of their total annual income.                 funding profile, banks continue to               consumers by lower interest rates
Although the total interest earned                  pay increased rates on deposits.                 improves their ability to repay
has increased to R43.3bn from                                                                        debt. This is evidenced by lower
R41.9bn in 2H10, and to R85.3bn                   • Limited asset growth – Loans                     levels of interest in suspense.
from R82.3bn for the full year, net                 advanced have started to increase
margins continued to be impacted                    again but growth remains subdued               • Retail deposits – Relatively higher
negatively by the significant drop                  and below the levels experienced                 deposit volumes of traditionally
in the repo rate and the resulting                  prior to the GFC.                                cheaper retail deposits.
endowment effect as well as
increased funding costs. The net                  There has, however, been some relief             • Hedging activities – Some banks
interest contribution to total income             on bank margins, as a result of:                   have successfully protected
before impairments decreased to                                                                      margins by hedging portions of
46.2% for 2H10, from 47% in 1H10.                 • Asset re-pricing – Re-pricing                    the endowment impact, but there
                                                    related to credit risk provided                  is a concern that as rates start to
Contributing factors to decreasing                  some relief for bank margins.                    increase this may slow the net
bank interest margins are:                          However, by now much of this                     interest income they are able
                                                    asset re-pricing activity should                 to produce as their hedges turn
• Endowment effect – Decreasing                     have been completed and its                      against them.
  interest rates have a significant                 impact fully reflected in interest
  impact on bank earnings as the                    income.
  interest received on assets does not
  fully compensate for the increased
  costs associated with deposits and
  longer term funding.

8 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Non-interest income

Increased reliance on                          Of particular interest is the strong   significantly impacted earnings.
                                               growth in electronic banking fees,     Competition for derivative flows in
non-interest income                            generally considered to be a cheaper   emerging markets remains intense,
                                               alternative to other transaction       and has increased as international
Non-interest income for 2H10 was up            channels. The continued migration      banks seek to grow in emerging
8.4% on 1H10 and 4.1% up on 2H09.              of customers to electronic banking     markets, resulting in a compression
It now represents 53.8% of total               channels could significantly impact    of margins. Equity markets have
income, up from 53.0% in 1H10. This            the net fee and commission income      however been buoyant as fears over
demonstrates the increased reliance            earned in future periods.              the GFC abated.
of banks on non-interest income as a
source of earnings.                            Fair value income                      Insurance and
                                                                                      Bancassurance income
Net fee and
                                               air value income decreased by 1.9%
commission income                              on 1H10 and by 12.5% on 2H09.          Insurance and Bancassurance
                                               Proprietary trading and customer       income increased by 64.7% in 2H10
Net fee and commission income                  demand for Interest Rate and Foreign   against 1H10 and by 19.1% on 2H09,
increased by 9.0% on 1H10 and                  Exchange risk management products      albeit from a relatively low base.
increased by 5.8% on 2H09. This                remained relatively low. Uncertainty   This dramatic increase is primarily
growth is largely attributable to              regarding the market direction,        attributable to strong premium
transactional volume growth,                   especially following the sovereign     growth as a result of stronger cross-
coupled with inflationary increases            debt crisis in Europe in 1H10,         selling and the launch of more
offset by lower knowledge-based fees                                                  innovative products. Increased
on the back of reduced deal flow in                                                   investment returns following the
Investment Banking.                                                                   recovery of the global financial
                                                                                      markets have also significantly
                                                                                      contributed to this growth.

Non-interest income
  Rm
  60,000

  50,000

  40,000

  30,000

  20,000

  10,000
        0-
                   1H09              2H09                1H10            2H10
  -10,000

              Net f ee and commission income   Fair value income
              Insurance & Bancassurance income      Other income

Source – PwC Analysis

                                                                                            South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 9
Efficiency

                                                                         Combined results
                                                          2H10              1H10                     2H09             1H09
 Cost-to-income ratio                                    59.9%             57.1%                 55.7%               56.1%

Compared to the prior period, banks’      FY10 – Operating expenditure
operating expenses increased by
12.1 % while total operating income
                                                                           Total staf f costs
increased by 6.1%. Consequently
the banks’ combined cost-to-income
ratio deteriorated from 57.1% in             41%                           Inf ormation Technology
1H10 to 59.9% in 2H10. The banks                                  47%
have continued to place significant
                                                                           Depreciation,
emphasis on tightly managing their                                         amortisation and
expense base. Given the subdued                                            impairments
growth in total operating income,                   5%                     Other
                                                         7%
these cost containment strategies
have paid dividends and limited the           -
                                          Source – PwC Analysis
impact on the cost-to-income ratio.
All of the banks have stated at their
results presentations that this will      FY09 – Operating expenditure
remain a strategic priority in 2011.
                                                                           Total staf f costs
Of particular interest is the continued
significant investment made in
information technology, from an              40%                           Inf ormation Technology
                                                                  47%
already high base in prior periods.
The banks have cited several reasons
                                                                           Depreciation,
for this:
                                                                           amortisation and
                                                                           impairments
• There has been ongoing upward                     6%
                                                                           Other
                                                         7%
  pressure on banking technology
  costs in terms of security, business
                                          Source
                                              - – PwC Analysis
  continuity, and recoverability. The
  complexity and threats in these
  areas have risen exponentially in
  recent years, alongside the cost of       most recent year banks have made         Staff costs, which represented 47%
  staying ahead of the game.                investments to replace or enhance        of total expenses, continue to grow at
                                            core banking systems both                levels well above inflation, reflecting
• The importance of technology              locally and abroad. Changes in           an 11.8% increase in 2010 from
  to the banks’ operations has              regulatory and risk requirements         2009. As a result, staff costs are the
  been on a long-term upward                have also necessitated, and will         subject of more and more discussion
  trend. While this has generated           continue to necessitate, various         in boardrooms. Banks have begun to
  efficiencies in many areas, it has        system enhancements as banks             respond to external pressures on staff
  also consequentially increased            require access to more historic and      costs by increasing amounts paid in
  technology costs.                         detailed data on a more regular          shares and extending vesting periods.
                                            basis.
• Most importantly of all in the

10 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Operating expenses were also          Banks will continue to place
favourably impacted by the strong     considerable focus on reducing their
Rand during the period. The average   cost base over the next few years.
USD/ZAR rate strengthened from        Because we expect that margins will
8.42 in 2009 to 7.32 in 2010. As      remain compressed, and beyond
South African banks continue          2011 lending volumes may improve
to expand into Africa and other       only modestly, we expect that cost
emerging markets, currency            management will rise further in
fluctuations are having a more        terms of relative importance and
pronounced impact on earnings.        may well be a distinguishing factor
                                      between the relative performances of
                                      the banks.

                                                                             South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 11
Adapting to new realities in a post-crisis
    environment

Confidence is back – this is the         banking and capital markets CEOs       reported that their single best
overwhelming message from CEOs           are clearly in this camp. 61% think    opportunity for growth lay in better
in PwC’s 14th Annual Global CEO          that emerging markets will be more     penetration of their existing markets.
survey released in the first quarter     important to their organisation’s      Now they are just as likely to focus
of this year. More specifically, CEOs    future than developed markets.         on the innovation needed for new
are nearly as confident of growth        However, success will be hard won      products and services.
this coming year, as they have ever      as emerging economies respond to
been in the history of our survey.       international interest. For example,   We believe that changing customer
Realising growth aspirations will not    interest in the African continent      behaviour and accessible banking
be easy; however, as companies will      from international players has not     are two of the key drivers that will
have to respond to new challenges        been lost on African CEOs: 28% have    fundamentally influence the business
in the post-crisis environment. PwC      changed their strategy because of      models of South African banks.
explored some of these new realities     competitive threats, compared to a
and the mega trends that will affect     global average of 10%.                 South African banks
the Global and South African banking
industry in a study called Project       Responding to
Blue.                                                                           Many believe the previously
                                         changing customer                      unbanked market represents a
Top-line growth main                     requirements                           significant opportunity for revenue
                                                                                growth in South Africa. To date this
concern for South                        More CEOs are responding to the        market has largely been serviced by
African banks                            rise of middle-class consumers in      Tier 2 banks, with limited inroads
                                         emerging economies by developing       being made by the bigger banks.
As mentioned earlier, South African      products and services tailored to      However, these large banks have now
banks are struggling to grow top-line    those high-growth markets, while       started to tailor their service offerings
revenue as consumers are reluctant       also looking to serve the changing     to enable them to provide banking
to borrow due to over-indebtedness,      needs of more mature markets.          services to the mass market. Inability
inflation fears and anticipated          Our CEO Survey reveals that CEOs       to do so will result in a loss of market
interest rate increases. As a result,    are placing a higher premium on        share and stagnating revenue growth
many believe South African banks         innovation today. Since 2007,          over the long term.
will have to tap into the rapidly        business leaders have consistently
increasing emerging-to-emerging
market trade flows if they want to
realise their growth aspirations. It             “In the same way, for the younger people
is therefore not surprising to see the
banks focusing their attention on                who went through this recession, it will
expansion into Africa to capture these
trade flows.                                     forever have an impact on the way they
This is supported by our economic                behave, the way they incur debt, the way
forecast, which suggests that the GDP
of E7 emerging economies could be                they spend, the way they save. It will be a
bigger than that of the G7 economies
by 2020, and that China may                      permanent change”
overtake the US before the end of
the decade. Many Western banks are                                                       – Richard K. Davis,
looking to offset slow growth in their
home markets by strengthening their                                President and CEO of U.S. Bancorp
presence in South America, Africa,
Asia and the Middle East. Most of the

12 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
It is notable that 87% percent of
global banking and capital market
CEOs believe that innovations will                 “We expect that governments will not
lead to operational efficiencies and
provide them with a competitive                    only be looking to the private sector
advantage. 64% also believe that
their IT investments will help                     for the provision of capital, but for
them tap into new marketing and
transactional opportunities such as                increasing the delivery of a whole
mobile devices and social media.
With more than 40 million mobile                   range of social services. For example,
devices in operation in South Africa,
this is clearly a distribution channel             in the UK the government is looking at
that will be explored further by South
African banks as they penetrate the                different ways to provide services from
mass market.
                                                   the private sector in terms of meeting the
Growth opportunities,
especially in emerging
                                                   government’s objectives.”
markets, prompt                                                                                 Nicholas Moore,
changes to talent                                                               CEO of the Macquarie Group
strategies

As they look to expand globally, CEOs      a concern for global CEOs. For           respond to opportunities quickly.
recognise that they require a more         South African banks, changes to
diverse workforce, including more          Basel III, particularly the proposed     Political interference in banking is
women and different geographic             new liquidity requirements, could        much less common in South Africa,
leaders as they look to expand             fundamentally change the business        given that none of its banks had to be
globally. Filling the skills gaps in       models of the banks and may              bailed out. However, there has been
emerging markets begins with banks         negatively impact on banks’ ability to   ongoing support by the South African
making themselves more attractive          grow. However, it is the positive step   government for community banks
to potential and current employees;        that the National Treasury is leading    and the Postbank to ensure access to
as well as looking for better ways to      a task force investigating how best to   banking services for the unbanked
develop and deploy staff globally.         deal with the challenges of Basel III.   market. Although the debate around
Becoming the employer of choice                                                     nationalisation currently focuses
is a vital advantage in dynamic            The majority of global                   on mines, banks have also been
markets where top talent has the pick                                               mentioned in this context not too
of jobs from domestic and foreign          banking CEOs regard                      long ago. All of these factors could
employers.                                 political instability as                 profoundly change the South African
                                           the most significant                     banking environment in future.
We have noted in Project Blue that
South African banks will have to           global risk                              It is clear that South African banks
reconsider the remuneration policies                                                will have to contend with a number
and development opportunities they         Western banks will need to adjust        of new realities if they wish to
offer in order to attract and retain key   to governments exerting greater          remain relevant in the post-crisis
talent. The role that organisational       control over their activities and the    environment. The most successful
culture plays in talent retention          real economy. In developed markets,      banks are likely to be those which can
should also not be underestimated.         the crisis necessitated a rapid          respond to the opportunities, while
                                           increase in state intervention and, in   at the same time making the most of
Overregulation                             many people’s eyes, has legitimised      their principal competitive strengths.
                                           ongoing intervention. Project Blue       This will accelerate the move towards
continues to rank                          highlights the rise of state-directed    precision as banks become ever
amongst the top 3                          capitalism as one of the mega trends     more ruthless in the defence and
risks on CEOs’ minds                       that will have an impact on banking      optimisation of their core franchises.
                                           globally. Western banks’ ability to      As one CEO put it, the bank that can
                                           respond to opportunities in emerging     implement its strategy in the most
Nearly three quarters of CEOs told         markets will largely depend on the       efficient way will be the winner.
us they would actively support new         risk appetite of governments of
government policies that promote           the jurisdictions from which they
growth that is economically, socially      operate. This creates opportunities
and environmentally sustainable.           for emerging market banks to capture
However, overregulation remains            market share if they are able to

                                                                                         South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 13
Asset quality

Rm                                                                                                    %
2,400,000                                                                                             6.0

                                                                                                      5.0
2,350,000
                                                                                                      4.0

2,300,000                                                                                             3.0

                                                                                                      2.0
2,250,000
                                                                                                      1.0

2,200,000                                                                                             0

                                                                                                      - 1.0
2,150,000
                                                                                                      - 2.0

2,100,000                                                                                             - 3.0
              Q1      Q2       Q3   Q4   Q1       Q2     Q3      Q4     Q1      Q2      Q3     Q4

                            2008                    2009                             2010

                     Loans and advances (LHS)           Loans and advances – year-on-year growth (RHS)

Source – SARB (all banks)

Levels of gross                                 Total non-performing
advances                                        loans (NPLs)
Given the subdued global sentiment              An analysis of NPLs as a percentage
and the strained economic                       of gross advances at 2H10 follows:
environment in 2010, it is not
surprising that there was limited                                                             Growth          NPLs/Advances
overall growth in advances for the                                                            in NPL               (%)
full year 2010.                                                                              advances
                                                                                                (%)
The growth in total advances across                                                                             2010          2009
the Corporate and Retail sectors for
                                                Personal and Business Banking/                      -1.2%       7.5%          7.9%
2010 was 2.2%.                                  Retail
                                                Mortgage loans                                      -1.5%       9.4%          9.7%
Total advances as at 2H10 increased
                                                Instalment sale and finance leases                  5.8%        5.5%          5.3%
to R2.2tn compared to R2.1tn as at
2H09. This increase was made up                 Card debtors                                        -6.9%       8.8%          9.5%
of an increase in total advances of             Other loans and advances                            -4.2%       3.7%          4.6%
approximately 5.1% in the Retail                Corporate and Investment Banking                    -1.4%       3.0%          3.0%
sector (total retail advances as at             Corporate lending                                   -0.5%       3.0%          3.0%
2H10 amounted to R1.4tn compared
                                                Commercial property finance                         1.7%        3.0%          3.1%
to R1.3tn as at 2H09), a 0.3%
marginal decrease in the Corporate
Banking sector, and a decrease in the           Central and Other                               -130.7%         0.3%          2.5%
‘Other’ advances category amounting
to R18bn during the year.                       Total                                               -1.3%       5.9%          6.1%

14 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
The High Court stated in its judgement that “to allow a credit
          provider to unilaterally terminate the consumer’s protection at
          the precise moment when he or she may need it the most can only
          be construed as absurd. It would be like providing the consumer
          with an umbrella and then snatching it back the moment it starts
          raining.”

Although the levels of inflows into      within banks. Given the volumes of               the Western Cape High Court ruled
the early arrears categories seem to     loans designated as NPLs, banks will             that a credit provider could not
have decreased, the level of NPLs in     need to reassess their expectations              terminate the debt review process
the banks’ balance sheets remains        of when these properties will be                 where an application for a debt re-
sticky with a marginal decrease in       recovered. This may have an impact               arrangement had been lodged by the
NPL levels across the banks. Total       on the timing of these recoveries and            debt counsellor with the magistrate
NPLs amounted to R130bn, around          ultimately Loss Given Default (LGD)              court and was still pending. The High
5.9% of total gross advances (R2.2tn)    assumptions used in estimating                   Court judgement demonstrated that
in 2H10 (compared to a ratio of 6.2%     mortgage book impairments.                       if consumers and debt counsellors
in 2H09). The marginal decrease in                                                        fulfilled their duties by submitting
NPL levels was made up of growth         The numbers of debt counselling                  an application for debt review to the
in ABSA’s NPL book by 9.8%, offset       clients in the non-performing                    magistrate’s court within 60 days
by decreases in the NPL books of         categories seem to have reached                  of receiving such application, the
the other banks (Nedbank’s and           a peak in 2010. We saw inflows                   credit provider could not unilaterally
FirstRand’s NPL books decreased          into the debt counselling process                terminate the debt review process.
by 1% and 8.7% respectively, and         starting to show a more stable trend
Standard Banks’ decreased by             in 2H10. During 2010, banks across               The High Court stated in its
11.7%).                                  the industry placed an emphasis                  judgement that “to allow a credit
                                         on terminating clients that had not              provider to unilaterally terminate the
The high NPL levels are as a result of   stuck to their debt counselling terms.           consumer’s protection at the precise
the large number of client accounts      The incentive for banks to terminate             moment when he or she may need
that were previously in arrears, which   clients and place them back into                 it the most can only be construed as
are now working their way through        the legal recovery process is that               absurd. It would be like providing the
the banks’ legal departments. The        recoveries are made sooner by this               consumer with an umbrella and then
combined level of NPLs now stands        means, which positively impacts                  snatching it back the moment it starts
at R76bn for the Mortgage Portfolio’s    impairments.                                     raining.” The High Court implied
alone. The number and value of                                                            that a typical debt review often takes
loans subject to legal remedy will no    The manner in which banks                        longer than 60 business days before it
doubt increase the workloads of the      terminate clients was recently called            results in an order by the magistrate’s
collections, legal and recovery teams    into question, where a full bench in             court.

Rm                                                                                                            %
50,000                                                                                                        40
45,000                                                                                                        35
40,000
                                                                                                              30
35,000
30,000                                                                                                        25

25,000                                                                                                        20
20,000                                                                                                        15
15,000
                                                                                                              10
10,000
  5,000                                                                                                       5

      0                                                                                                       0
           1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10

                        ASA              FSR                     NED                          SBK

                                   NPLs (LHS)        Specif ic impairment of NPLs (RHS)
Source – PwC Analysis

                                                                                               South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 15
“A year-on-year increase of 24.8% (from 206 to
                                         257) in company liquidations was recorded for
                                         January 2011 compared with January 2010”.
                                                                                                    – Statistics SA

The press suggests that the National        Retail vehicle and asset finance        some success in realising outstanding
Credit Regulator has a large backlog        categories for financial reporting      balances. Our industry experience
of unresolved cases due to capacity         purposes, whilst other banks include    shows that post-write-off recoveries
constraints in the court system.            the Business and Corporate vehicle      in the current year have been more
This is not good news for banks as          asset finance business under their      favourable across this portfolio
an extension of this process means          Corporate operations. This means        compared to previous years and
higher LGD percentages as a result of       that direct comparisons of key Retail   would most likely taper off in the
potentially lower recovery rates in the     vehicle and asset portfolio ratios is   future.
future.                                     not always possible.
                                                                                    Analysis of gross
How banks resolve the current levels        Notwithstanding the above, it
of NPLs and those NPLs in the debt          appears that vehicle and asset          advances and non-
review process needs to be monitored        finance advance growth was              performing loans in
in 2011.                                    approximately 1.8% for the year         the wholesale portfolio
                                            since 2H09, with most of the growth
Analysis of gross                           coming from retail advances as car
                                            sales increased in 2H10. NPLs as a      Corporate advances decreased
advances and non-                           percentage of advances are close to     slightly by 0.3% for the year since
performing loans in                         5.5% and have increased slightly        2H09.
the mortgage loan                           in 2H10 compared to 2H09, when
                                            they were 5.3%. Coverage ratios         NPLs as a percentage of advances
portfolio                                   have generally increased as the         were 3.0% for 2H10 and were at
                                            average age of the accounts with NPL    similar levels for 2H09. The implied
Mortgage loan advance growth has            status has increased. The implied       LGD rate increased to approximately
been 2.2% for the year since 2009.          LGD decreased to approximately          40.3% across all of the banks (from
                                            46.5% across all of the banks (from     approximately 26.4% for 2H09).
NPL as a percentage of advances is          approximately 48.8% during 2H09).
9.4% and has decreased slightly for                                                 A review of the latest liquidation
2H10 compared to 2H09, when it was          Analysis of gross                       numbers shows that Corporate
9.7%. Coverage ratios have increased                                                clients may not be out of the woods
as the average age of accounts              advances and non-                       yet. More companies closed their
with NPL status has increased. The          performing loans in                     doors in January this year compared
implied LGD (calculated by dividing         the card portfolio                      to the same month in 2010, Statistics
the specific impairment amounts by                                                  SA said recently. “A year-on-year
the NPL book) remained relatively                                                   increase of 24.8% (from 206 to
consistent at 18.6% across all banks,       Card advances growth has been 0.1%      257) in company liquidations was
compared to approximately 18.5% as          for the year since 2H09.                recorded for January 2011 compared
at 2H09.                                                                            with January 2010”. Over the
                                            NPLs as a percentage of card            same period, closed corporation
Analysis of gross                           advances are 8.8% and have              liquidations rose from 110 to 143,
                                            decreased slightly for 2H10 compared    and company liquidations increased
advances and non-                           to 2H09, when they were 9.5%.           from 96 to 114.
performing loans in                         Coverage ratios have increased as
the vehicle and asset                       the average age of accounts with NPL
                                            status has increased. The implied
finance portfolio                           LGD decreased to approximately
                                            75.6% across all of the banks (from
Certain South African banks include         approximately 77.7% as at 2H09).
their Corporate or Business vehicle         The improvement in LGDs in this
asset finance books within the              portfolio implies that banks have had

16 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Total income                                    The levels of income statement                     Total coverage ratios
statement impairment                            impairment seem to have reached its
                                                highs in 2009 and are now starting                 The coverage ratios (calculated as
charge ratio                                    to decline, albeit at a much slower                specific impairment divided by NPL
(impairments to the                             rate than many had anticipated.                    book) across all products decreased
income statement                                The low interest rate environment                  slightly during the year. This trend
                                                coupled with relatively strong salary              is not surprising given that the
divided by average                              increases left consumers with more                 average age of loans included in
advances)                                       disposable income in 2010, which                   the NPL category has not decreased
                                                resulted in fewer inflows into the                 substantially.
The total income statement                      arrears categories. As noted earlier,
impairment charge across the                    external inflationary pressure and                 The average NPL coverage ratios
major banks was R24.3bn for 2010                rises in interest rates will have a                across certain products were as
compared to R35.3bn for 2009.                   negative impact which may possibly                 follows:
There is therefore a noticeable                 result in new NPL volumes increasing
improvement in the impairment                   over time.                                         • Mortgage loans – 18.6%
credit charge ratio, which varied                                                                    (FirstRand was the highest at
from 0.9% to 1.4% for 2010. This                                                                     19.64% and Standard Bank the
varied from 1.3% to 1.7% in 2009.                                                                    lowest at 17.43%).

                                                                                                   • Instalment sales business – 46.5%
                                                                                                     (Standard Bank was the highest at
                                                                                                     57.91% and FirstRand the lowest
                                                                                                     at 41.19%).

                                                                                                   • Cards – 75.6% (Nedbank was the
                                                                                                     highest at 96.53% and Standard
                                                                                                     Bank the lowest at 67.16%).

%
3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

 0
      1H09    2H09   1H10     2H10   1H09   2H09   1H10   2H10   1H09    2H09   1H10       2H10   1H09   2H09   1H10   2H10

                 ASA                           FSR                          NED                            SBK

                               Specif ic impairment %            Portf olio impairment %

      Source – PwC Analysis

                                                                                                         South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 17
Capital and funding

                                                                                             Basel III – a significant
Deposits                                         Capital
                                                                                             concern for banks
Optimising the mix of the deposit                The individual Capital Adequacy
book remains a key focus in reducing             Ratios (‘CAR’) for the major banks          One of the main issues that has been
the high cost of wholesale and longer            continued to improve in 2H10. The           preoccupying many banks is the
term funding. This is critical as                average CAR increased from 15.2%            impact of Basel III and other local
banks compete more aggressively for              to 15.3% over the comparable period,        regulatory changes to the capital
lower-cost deposit pools with longer             reinforcing the upward trend on             structure of South African banks. The
behavioural duration and as they                 higher capital ratios. Slightly more        banks’ conservative approach has set
start to work towards the potential              pronounced, however, is the rise in         them up well to face the challenges
Basel III liquidity ratios.                      Tier 1 capital where the combined           of compliance with the new rules.
                                                 average ratio increased from 12.5%          However, their dependence on
Low interest rates, coupled with                 to 12.8%.                                   short-term wholesale funding and
low domestic savings levels and the                                                          the limited supply of South African
deleveraging of consumers, led to                                                            government securities will make
modest growth in retail deposits                                                             compliance with the liquidity rules
during 2010. As noted above, the                                                             more challenging.
increased competition and duration
negatively impacted on net interest                                                          This latter challenge is well
margins earned during 2H10.                                                                  recognised, to the extent that the
                                                                                             Basel Committee is now developing
                                                                                             a separate standard for jurisdictions
                                                                                             which do not have sufficient high
                                                                                             quality government securities
                                                                                             available.

       Rm                                                                                                                     %
2,500,000                                                                                                                     50
                                                                                                                              45
2,000,000                                                                                                                     40
                                                                                                                              35
1,500,000                                                                                                                     30
                                                                                                                              25
1,000,000                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                              15
  500,000                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                              5
        -                                                                                                                     0
             2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

            1997   1998      1999      2000   2001    2002   2003    2004   2005      2006     2007      2008   2009   2010

                          Government          Wholesale      Corporate       Retail            Other

                          % Government        % Wholesale    % Corporate     % Retail          % Other

            Source – SARB

18 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
Fundamental to the Basel III rules           • A ‘counter-cyclical buffer’ ranging      As well as these requirements for
are the requirements for the banks to          from 0 – 2.5% of common equity,          common equity, the banks are also
hold more capital of higher quality. In        determined by SARB as required,          required to hold Tier 1 capital to a
particular:                                    for instance in times of excessive       minimum of 8.5% (i.e. including
                                               credit growth.                           the conservation buffer, of which
• All banks must hold a minimum                                                         at least 7% is common equity) and
  common equity (common                      The result of all these measures is        total capital (i.e. Tier 1 and Tier 2)
  shares and retained earnings               that the new common equity (core           of at least 10.5%. In South Africa,
  less deductions, some of which             Tier 1) ratio will be at least 7%. In      additional capital requirements
  were previously taken against              addition, the banks will want to hold      could push the total minimum capital
  lower forms of capital) of 4.5%            their own internal buffer, over and        requirement to 12% due to the Pillar
  of risk weighted assets, which             above this regulatory minimum, as          2 (a) add-on of 1.5% for banks.
  may be supplemented by Pillar 2            part of normal risk management;
  requirements (set by SARB based            particularly as the sanctions for going
  on individual bank risk profiles)          under 7% will involve restrictions
                                             on their ability to pay dividends.
• A ‘conservation buffer’ of 2.5%,           We suspect that banks may view the
  above the 4.5% minimum, must               buffers as de facto minima due to the
  be created to absorb losses                negative market signals associated
  during periods of financial and            with holding less capital than the
  economic stress. Drawing on this           required buffers.
  buffer during times of stress will
  result in constraints on earnings
  distributions

 %
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
  8.0
  6.0
  4.0
  2.0
  0.0
        1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10

                 ASA                   FSR                  NED                   SBK            Combined results

                                   Total Tier 1 capital   Total Tier 2 capital

        Source – PwC Analysis

                                                                                             South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 19
As Lord Turner (Chairman of the UK’s Financial Standards
        Authority) is reported to have said, “If we were philosopher
        kings designing a banking system entirely anew for a
        greenfield economy, should we have set still higher capital
        ratios than in the Basel III regime? Yes I believe we should.”

Banks adopting the internal rating         not take into consideration the fact        Both these measures create
based (IRB) approach to credit risk        that the CAR under the current Basel        challenges for the South African
would be particularly concerned            II rules is not the same as the Basel III   banks. The stable funding
about the proposed re-introduction         CAR, as the Basel III rules are stricter.   requirement is a challenge because
of the 6% scaling factor to credit risk    It also does not take into account the      it allows minimal funding of assets
weighted assets. This is not strictly      additional capital requirements from        through short-term liabilities,
a Basel III amendment but has been         Pillars 2(a) or (b) or indeed what          whereas in the years leading up to
proposed in draft amendments to            these add-on ratios may be. Therefore       these new rules, the banks relied
the South African regulations to the       it would appear to be premature to          fairly heavily on short-term funding.
Banks Act and will be implemented          suggest that the banks should return
along with the other Basel III             capital to their shareholders.              Analysts’ research reports suggested
amendments. This proposed 6%                                                           that as of July 2010 (and before
scaling factor could drastically           We also suspect that there will be          recently announced modifications),
increase the capital requirement of        some upward pressure on equity              the South African banks had a net
banks that apply IRB approaches to         levels globally. For instance,              NSFR range of 40% to 60%, short of
credit risk. It is estimated that the      Switzerland has announced capital           the benchmark of 100%.
6% scaling factor could result in a        requirements on its banks in the high
reduction of 45 to 60 basis points         teens. We believe that the Basel III        The liquidity coverage ratio is a
in the capital adequacy ratio of the       requirements represent something            challenge in South Africa because
banks adopting this approach.              of a compromise on the part of              the assets most liquid during periods
                                           regulators in order to minimise any         of market stress are government
In addition to being a reminder            adverse impact on economic growth.          securities, and the strong financial
of how much common equity the                                                          position of South Africa’s public
banks have raised in recent years,         Will the new liquidity                      sector means there is a small pool of
the table shows that the major                                                         government securities relative to the
banks are in good shape in relation        rules bite credit                           size of bank balance sheets.
to the requirements. Based on our          growth?
estimates, collectively the banks                                                      The challenge for the South African
would meet the 7% ratio for common         The new liquidity rules are aimed to        banks in meeting these requirements
equity as at 31 December 2010 and          ensure that banks’ funding is on a          has been made somewhat less
even the 11 % minimum Tier 1               more sustainable, long-term basis,          daunting in the past few months by
ratio (including the counter-cyclical      thus enabling better liquidity during       Basel Committee announcements
buffer of 2.5%). The major banks           times of market turbulence. They            which make the requirements less
have an average of 12.75% Tier 1           involve two ratios:                         onerous to meet.
ratio based on the current Basel II
regulations. This has prompted many        • The net stable funding
commentators to suggest that the             requirement (NSFR) will target
banks are currently over-capitalised.        better duration matching of
The results presentations of the major       assets and liabilities. This will be
banks have all addressed this issue          introduced from 2018, following
in varying levels of detail. What is         an observation period starting in
clear is that given the uncertainty          2012.
as to how the Basel III rules will be
implemented in South Africa, the           • The liquidity coverage ratio
major banks have been cautious in            (LCR) will require banks to hold
returning capital to shareholders or         sufficient high quality assets to
in setting their capital targets for the     survive periods of severe market
years ahead. Our analysis of the issue       stress. This will be introduced from
is that the apparent “surplus” of Tier       2015, following an observation
1 capital above the minimum does             period starting in 2011.

20 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
For instance, for the LCR:               issue for South African banks. For        GDP. On current specifications, this
                                         example, pension funds are currently      risk cannot be ruled out, but we
• The run-off rates of certain retail    limited in terms of Regulation 28 of      believe in practice it is a low risk – the
  and small and medium enterprise        the Pension Funds Act in terms of         National Treasury and the SARB are
  deposits during periods of market      investing in bank debt instruments.       acutely aware of this risk and, given
  stress have been reduced.              They are currently limited to             the long lead times, the transition can
                                         allocating 20% of their total assets      be managed.
• Likewise, assumed outflows of          to banks debt instruments. In many
  certain funding from central banks     cases this 20% already includes the
  and government have also been          liquid assets required by the pension
  reduced.                               funds for operational purposes,
                                         thereby further limiting the amount
• A new category of ‘level 2’ liquid     of longer term investment in banks
  assets (e.g. bonds of certain public   liabilities. This has the effect of
  sector enterprises and covered         reducing the availability of additional
  bonds of other banks) has been         longer term funding to banks,
  introduced and may account for up      exacerbating the problem for the
  to 40% of the requirement.             NSFR.

Despite these changes, the core          The project by the National Treasury
issue for the South African banks        to investigate potential reforms to
regarding the LCR is the shortage of     various regulations such as those
South African Government Bonds.          relating to pension funds, collective
The Basel Committee is currently         investment schemes and tax
determining its response to this         regulations could potentially unlock
challenge for jurisdictions such as      some of the liquidity that is not
South Africa.                            currently available to banks.

The position regarding the               Another potential source of liquidity
NSFR is much the same. Recent            for South African banks that has
announcements have eased the             not received much public debate is
impact of the proposals in relation      covered bonds, i.e. banks issuing
to jurisdictions such as South Africa,   bonds secured by ring-fenced
for instance in how mortgages are        (inevitably very high quality) assets
treated.                                 on their balance sheet. Covered
                                         bonds have received a lot of attention
Nonetheless the postponement             and debate in countries such as New
of their application until 2018          Zealand and Australia. Covered
(following an observation phase)         bonds could provide South African
is an indication of the extent of        banks with another option to access
transition required.                     long-duration wholesale funding,
                                         and additionally the bonds could
One of the major contributors to the     potentially be treated as ‘eligible
challenges in meeting the NSFR in        securities’ for LCR purposes.
South Africa is that a large portion
of the savings pool is being held        The worst-case scenario would
within pension funds and other fund      be where the NSFR requirements
managers. This, together with the        can only be met through the banks
structural challenges to unlocking       rationing credit (assets) to less than,
such liquidity, has exacerbated this     say, the rate of growth in nominal

                                                                                         South Africa – Major Banks Analysis 21
ASA                    FSR                    NED                     SBK                 Combined            Growth
                                         Key banking statistics – Annual                                           2010         2009      2010         2009      2010         2009       2010         2009       2010      2009          09/10
                                               Rm
                                               Balance sheet

                                               Total assets                                                        716,470      710,796   695,809      802,389   608,718      570,703   1,341,420   1,297,788   3,362,417   3,381,676    -0.57%
                                               Gross Loans and acceptances                                         537,414      555,353   461,503      422,129   486,499      460,099     730,131     742,173   2,215,547   2,179,754     1.64%
                                               Total deposits                                                      393,517      392,906   543,713      487,929   490,440      469,355     796,635     768,548   2,224,305   2,118,738     4.98%
                                               Risk weighted assets                                                413,013      386,264   378,490      346,049   323,681      326,466     620,064     599,822   1,735,248   1,658,601     4.62%

                                               Asset quality & provisioning

                                               Non-performing loans                                                 39,641       36,089    21,117       23,121    26,765       27,045      42,701      48,376    130,224     134,631     -3.27%
                                               Impairments                                                         -13,902      -13,158    -9,844      -10,991   -11,226       -9,798     -17,106     -18,666    -52,078     -52,613     -1.02%
                                                 Collective provisions                                              -2,087       -3,222    -3,117       -3,703    -2,154       -1,968      -4,884      -5,588    -12,242     -14,481    -15.46%
                                                 Individually assessed provisions                                  -11,815       -9,936    -6,727       -7,288    -9,072       -7,830     -12,222     -13,078    -39,836     -38,132      4.47%

22 South Africa – Major Banks Analysis
                                              Non-performing loans (% of advances)                                    7.4%         6.5%      4.6%         5.5%      5.5%         5.9%        5.8%        6.5%        5.8%        6.1%    -4.39%
                                              Impairment charge (% of average advances)                               1.2%         1.7%      0.9%         1.5%      1.4%         1.5%        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%        1.5%   -25.78%
                                              Impairment coverage ratio                                              35.1%        36.5%     46.6%        47.5%     41.9%        36.2%       40.1%       38.6%       40.9%       39.7%     3.07%
                                              Implied loss given default                                             29.8%        27.5%     31.9%        31.5%     33.9%        29.0%       28.6%       27.0%       31.0%       28.8%     7.94%

                                               Profit & loss analysis (i)

                                               Net interest income                                                  23,340       21,854    16,404       12,688    16,608       16,306      28,927      31,493     85,279      82,341      3.57%
                                               Non interest income                                                  19,474       20,232    28,579       24,193    13,215       11,906      44,054      41,620    105,322      97,951      7.53%
                                               Total operating income                                               42,814       42,086    44,983       36,881    29,823       28,212      72,981      73,113    190,601     180,292      5.72%
                                               Total operating expenses                                            -24,949      -23,227   -26,955      -22,113   -17,045      -15,538     -47,519     -43,589   -116,468    -104,467     11.49%
                                               Core earnings                                                        17,865       18,859    18,028       14,768    12,778       12,674      25,462      29,524     74,133      75,825     -2.23%
                                               Impairment charge                                                    -6,005       -8,967    -4,545       -7,556    -6,188       -6,634      -7,524     -12,097    -24,262     -35,254    -31.18%
                                               Other income/(expenses)                                                  -9          -50       816          980       -90          679         489          -9      1,206       1,600    -24.63%
                                               Income tax expenses                                                  -3,262       -2,340    -3,926       -2,439    -1,364       -1,307      -4,965      -4,620    -13,517     -10,706     26.26%
                                               Profit for the period                                                  8,589        7,502    10,373        5,753     5,136        5,412      13,462      12,798     37,560      31,465     19.37%

                                               Attributable earnings                                                 8,118        6,840    16,994        6,715     4,811        4,826     10,774      11,054      40,697      29,435     38.26%
                                               Headline earnings                                                     8,041        7,621    10,004        6,878     4,900        4,277     10,969      11,253      33,914      30,029     12.94%

                                               Key data

                                              Other operating income (% of total income)                             45.5%        48.1%     63.5%        65.6%     44.3%        42.2%       60.4%       56.9%       53.4%       53.2%     0.42%
                                              Net interest margin (% of total assets)                                 3.2%         2.9%      2.1%         1.5%      2.9%         2.9%        2.6%        3.2%        2.7%        2.6%     3.16%
                                              Net interest margin (% of average interest earning advances)            4.0%         3.7%      3.6%         2.5%      3.4%         3.4%        3.8%        4.5%        3.7%        3.5%     4.52%
                                              Standardised efficiency ratio                                            56.5%        53.0%     59.1%        59.3%     55.7%        53.5%       63.1%       57.3%       58.6%       55.8%     4.99%

                                              Return on equity                                                       14.3%        15.1%     19.9%        13.8%     11.1%        10.8%       12.6%       13.4%       14.5%       13.3%     9.09%
                                              Return on average assets                                                1.1%         1.0%      1.3%         0.8%      0.8%         0.8%        1.0%        1.0%        1.1%        0.9%    17.92%

                                               Total number of staff*                                                36,770       36,150    38,657       38,760    27,525       27,037     48,125      45,937     151,077     147,884      2.16%

                                               Capital ratios
                                              Tier 1                                                                12.80%       12.80%    13.60%       13.50%    11.70%       11.50%     12.90%      11.80%      12.75%      12.40%      2.82%
                                              Tier 2                                                                 2.70%        2.70%     1.70%        2.10%     3.30%        3.30%      2.40%       2.80%       2.53%       2.73%     -7.34%
                                              Total                                                                 15.50%       15.50%    15.30%       15.60%    15.00%       14.80%     15.30%      14.60%      15.28%      15.13%
                                               * - Staff numbers for Firstrand were not repeated in December 2H10
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