SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS - APRIL 2021
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SEMA
INDUSTRY
INDICATORS Economic growth picked up swiftly in March following the polar
vortex that engulfed much of the country in February and curtailed
economic activity during the month. But economic activity is also
picking up because COVID-related restrictions and limitations are
being lifted. Additionally, the IRS began delivering the third round of
economic stimulus payments in the middle of the month. Consumers
APRIL 2021 are looking especially bullish, and sentiment has jumped, driven by
greater optimism for the near-term economic environment.
CURRENT OUTLOOK FUTURE OUTLOOK
NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE POSITIVE
Retail sales surged 9.8 percent in March. Consumer spending will
likely continue in the months ahead given that many of these checks
were delivered to households in the back half of March and into April.
Auto sales saw a spike in March, hitting levels not seen in over three
years. Retail sales grew 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the strongest
quarterly growth rate since the 1960s.
The last month was also a strong month for manufacturing. The
industry added 53,000 jobs. However, the motor vehicles and parts
sector shed roughly 1,000 jobs, making this the third consecutive
month of declines. This is potentially a result of key component
shortages like semiconductors, which has caused manufacturers to
slow production of some models. But production in the auto parts
segment increased during March and, as already noted, sales of new
vehicles were extremely strong. Retail inventory levels for both new
and used vehicles are tightening.
There remain a few major risk factors. First, while vaccination rates
are quickly accelerating, the risk of variant strains remains acute.
Secondly, costs are rising throughout the supply chain. Supply chains
are constrained, created in part by an imbalance between supply and
demand. This has increased prices for key components and created
some shortages. As a further result of supply chain constraints,
transportation costs are up significantly. The producer price index rose
1 percent in March and is up 4.2 percent over the last year. This is the
highest level in nearly a decade. Over the last six months, prices are
up a 7.6 percent annualized pace. Some of the factors driving prices
higher are temporary and will subside somewhat, but price pressure is
likely to remain through the remainder of the year.
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS | APRIL 2021 1ECONOMICS
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH
Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter
was revised up to 4.3 percent. Nominal 40%
GDP, which is real GDP plus inflation, was 30%
revised up to 6.3 percent. Nominal GDP is 20%
down 1.2 percent over the last year but up
4.3%
10%
1.4 percent compared to two years ago.
Stimulus checks, increasing vaccination
0%
rates and lifting restrictions are combining -10%
to drive economic activity. GDP is set to -20%
grow 6 percent in the first quarter, 8.7 -30%
percent in the second quarter and 7.5 -40%
percent in the third quarter. For the year, 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
the economy will expand roughly 6.5
percent over 2020. Recession
Real GDP (Q/Q % Change SAAR)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Real GDP (Q/Q % Change SAAR))
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Avrio Institute
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer sentiment surged to 84.9 in
March — the highest levels in a year — and 120
early results in April suggest sentiment is 110
continuing to rise. Expectations for future
100
economic gains typically lead in the early
months of a recovery as the economy 90
starts to pick up steam. But the jump 80
in sentiment is being driven by current 84.9
70
economic conditions, likely due to strong
stimulus, low interest rates and a reopening 60
economy. Future economic prospects 50
did improve in March but are likely being 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
weighed down by worries over inflation.
In early April, half of all consumers expect Recession
unemployment to decline, the highest Consumer Sentiment (1966:Q1=100)
levels ever recorded. 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Sentiment (1966:Q1=100))
University of Michigan, Avrio Institute
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
March brought massive job gains. There
were 916,000 jobs added during the 17%
month. Moreover, results for January
and February were revised higher by 12%
156,000. Leisure and hospitality led March
gains with 280,000 jobs, followed by 6.0%
construction (110,000), education and 7%
health services (101,000). State and local
governments also showed strong gains, 2%
as school buildings reopened and workers
returned. Manufacturing added 53,000
-3%
jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
6 percent in March. Total hours worked
increased 1.9 percent in March, after falling Recession
in February mostly due to severe weather. U.S. Unemployment Rate
Larger payrolls and longer average
12 per. Mov. Avg. (U.S. Unemployment Rate)
workweeks suggest March was a good
month for production.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Avrio Institute
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS | APRIL 2021 2ECONOMICS
CONSUMER SPENDING
Income and spending were both down
in February. Personal income declined 7.1 15%
percent from the prior month. The second 10%
round of COVID-relief stimulus payments
began landing in bank accounts in January, 5%
which caused income to surge during 0%
the month. February brought a return to -5%
normal, but consumer income is still up 2.3 -0.6%
percent from December 2020 and up 4.3 -10%
percent over the last year. If you take out -15%
government transfer payments, income
-20%
was up 0.4 percent in February. Spending
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
fell 1 percent in February. Some of this
decline is due to severe weather during Recession
the month and should reverse itself in the Consumer Spending (Y/Y % change)
coming months, especially as the economy
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Spending (Y/Y % change))
opens further.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Avrio Institute
CONSUMER SPENDING ON MOTOR VEHICLES & PARTS
Spending on vehicles declined in February.
Like overall spending, this was likely a 40%
result of bad weather during the month 30%
and a lull of stimulus checks arriving in 20% 17.7%
bank accounts. Spending on new vehicles 10%
declined 5.5 percent during the month and 0%
is down 13.6 percent from February 2020, -10%
the last month prior to the start of the -20%
pandemic. Net purchases of used vehicles -30%
-40%
were also down during the month, falling
4.1 percent. Spending on used vehicles is 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
up 10.2 percent over pre-pandemic levels, Recession
highlighting the strength in used vehicle
sales during the last 12 months. Personal consumption expenditures: Motor vehicles and parts (Y/Y %
Change)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Personal consumption expenditures: Motor vehicles
and parts (Y/Y % Change))
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Avrio Institute
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: AUTO PARTS
March was a very good month for
production. Some of this growth was 15%
payback from the weather-induced 5%
slowdown in February. But it also points
to an economy that is continuing to open -5%
and consumers flush with cash. Auto -15% 29.0%
parts production increased 1.7 in March
-25%
and is up 29 percent over the last year.
Though, year-over-year comparisons are -35%
convoluted by the sharp drop in the early -45%
months of the pandemic last year. For the
-55%
next year, it is probably more accurate to
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
look at the two-year-over-two-year trend.
Here we see that auto production is up a Recession
healthy 7.8 percent. This is the strongest Industrial Production: Auto Parts
two-year trend since December 2018.
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Industrial Production: Auto Parts)
Federal Reserve, Avrio Institute
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS | APRIL 2021 3AUTOMOTIVE
MONTHLY NEW LIGHT VEHICLE SALES
New vehicles sales were extremely strong
in March, with a seasonally adjusted 80%
annual run rate of 17.75 million. This is the 60%
highest level since October 2017. New
vehicle sales increased 12.6 percent in
40% 56.2%
March and are up 56.2 percent over the 20%
last year. Again, the two-year trend is more 0%
appropriate here. Compared to March
2019, new vehicle sales are up 2.5 percent.
-20%
During the month, both new car and new -40%
truck sales were up. New car sales were up -60%
13.1 percent in the month and are up 33.5 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
percent over the last year. They are down
22.2 percent compared to two years ago, Recession
which highlights the larger shift to trucks New Light Vehicle Sales (Y/Y % Change)
and SUVs. Trucks/SUVs are up 12.5 percent 12 per. Mov. Avg. (New Light Vehicle Sales (Y/Y % Change))
compared to two years ago.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Avrio Institute
GAS PRICES
Gas prices continue their meteoric rise.
National average gas prices increased to 4.50
$2.90 in March. Prices were up 31 cents, 4.00
or 12 percent, in the last month. Prices are
3.50
up 24.4 percent over the last year and $2.90
11.7 percent compared to two years ago. 3.00
March saw the highest average monthly 2.50
gas prices since May 2019. In a normal
year, gas prices usually peak between 2.00
Memorial Day at the end of May and the 1.50
Fourth of July, so gas prices will likely 1.00
continue to drift higher in the coming 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
months. Demand for gasoline continues
to climb as the economy reopens and Recession
mobility rates increase. U.S. All Grades All Formulations Gas Price
12 per. Mov. Avg. (U.S. All Grades All Formulations Gas Price)
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Avrio Institute
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
Seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled
for February 2021 declined 1.1 billion 6%
vehicle miles (0.4 percent) compared 4%
to the prior month. Seasonally adjusted 2%
vehicle miles were down 29.1 billion 0%
vehicle miles, or roughly 10.6 percent, -2%
compared with February 2020. Severe -4%
weather during the month likely curtailed -6%
driving in much of the country. The South -8%
Gulf region was down 13.9 percent from
-10%
the prior year, while the Northeast was
off 18.5 percent. At 205.4 billion vehicle
-12% -14.2%
-14%
miles, February 2021 was the lowest
February of driving since 2003. -16%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Recession Total Vehicle Miles Driven 12 MA (Y/Y % Change)
U.S. Federal Highway Administration, Avrio Institute
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS | APRIL 2021 4INSIGHTS FROM SEMA
VEHICLES IN OPERATION (VIO) DATA
There are over 281 million light vehicles
Mid Range Car 21%
in operation in the United States today,
of which over 114 million are passenger Pickup 20%
cars and nearly 167 million are light CUV 19%
trucks. Together, mid range cars and
SUV 13%
pickup trucks represent 41% of the
vehicles on the road. Small Car 10%
Van 6%
Upscale Car 5%
Sports Car 3%
Alternative Power 1% % of Vehicles on Road
Source: ©2021 Experian, Data as of December 31, 2021
SPECIALTY EQUIPMENT MARKET SIZE BY VEHICLE SEGMENT
The specialty-equipment market Pickup $14.28
is a $46.2 billion dollar industry. Mid Range Car $7.10
Customers spend the most money
SUV $6.35
on pickup upgrades.
CUV $5.90
Sports Car $3.51
Upscale Car $3.48
Small Car $2.53
Van $1.73
Classic $0.89
Alternative Power USD Billions
USD Billions
$0.43
Source: 2019 SEMA US Market Data
INSIGHTS FROM THE NEW SEMA VEHICLE LANDSCAPE REPORT
The U.S. vehicle landscape is shifting away from passenger cars to light trucks. By 2028, light trucks are
expected to make up 82% of all new light vehicles sold, driven mainly by the popularity and growth of CUVs.
NEW VEHICLE SALES FORECAST BY TYPE
17.5M 17.2M 16.9M 17.1M 17.2M
16.4M 16.4M
14.5M
8.7M 10.6M
11.9M
13.2M 13.7M 14.0M 14.2M
11.1M
7.7M 6.9M
5.3M
3.4M 3.2M 3.2M 3.1M 3.0M
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Passenger Cars Light Trucks
Note: Light Trucks include CUVs, SUVs, Pickups and Vans
To learn more, download the 2021 SEMA Vehicle Landscape Report at: sema.org/research
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS | APRIL 2021 5APPENDIX
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH: Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a
measure of a country’s total economic activity. It represents the value
of all goods and services produced within a country. More simply,
it’s the sum of a country’s consumption, government expenditures,
investments, and net exports. This graph shows the percent change
per quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT: The “Index of Consumer Sentiment” comes
from the University of Michigan’s “Survey of Consumers.” The index
captures consumers opinions on a variety of factors, such as how their
current financial situation compares to a year ago, how they expect
their financial situation to change and whether the next 12 months are
a good time to buy a new vehicle.
CONSUMER SPENDING: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is
the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in
the U.S. economy. The index is adjusted for inflation and seasonality.
CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: The unemployment rate is the
number of unemployed individuals as a percent of the total labor
force. The Labor force includes all individuals 16 years of age and
older who reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia.
Unemployed individuals are individuals who have actively sought work
within the past four weeks.
TRADE-WEIGHTED U.S. DOLLAR INDEX: The trade-weighted U.S.
dollar index provides a measure of the foreign exchange value of the
U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading
partners. It provides a gauge for how the U.S. dollar is performing
against global currencies. A weaker dollar vis-à-vis other world
currencies will make U.S. produced goods more attractive to foreign
buyers. It can also mean a higher relative price for imported goods.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - AUTO PARTS: Industrial production of
auto parts is a measure of real output for all facilities located in the
United States manufacturing auto parts and allied goods. Growth in
the production index from month to month is an indicator of growth
in the industry.
TOTAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES (THOUSANDS OF UNITS): Total U.S.
cars and light trucks sold per month, including both domestic and
foreign brands.
AVERAGE U.S. GAS PRICE (PER GALLON): Weekly average U.S. retail
CONTACT INFO gasoline prices per gallon. This includes all grades and formulations.
sema.org VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED: The Federal Highway Administration’s
Kyle Cheng Traffic Volume Trends is a monthly report based on traffic count data.
kylec@sema.org These data are collected at approximately 4,000 continuous traffic
909.378.4861 counting locations nationwide. Estimates are re-adjusted annually
AvrioInstitute.com to match the vehicle miles of travel from the Highway Performance
Shawn DuBravac, PhD, CFA Monitoring System and are continually updated with additional data.
Shawn@AvrioInstitute.org
703.980.8892 Copyright ©2021 SEMA and Avrio Institute. All Rights Reserved.
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