Shopping centres Russia | Regions - H1 2021 - Colliers
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
H1 2021 Retail market Shopping centres Russia | Regions
2
Table 1
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
Key market indicators
Source: Colliers
H1 2019 H1 2020 H1 2021
Total stock of quality retail space in Russia, million sq m 27.9 28.4 29.2
Completions in Russia, sq m 200,300 218,200 405,200
Total stock of quality retail space in regional cities, million sq m* 17.0 17.2 17.7
Completions in regional cities, sq m* 95,300 0 313,900
Number of quality shopping centres opened in regional
4 0 6
cities over the period*
Retail stock per 1,000 capita in Russia, sq m 190 194 200
*All Russian cities except Moscow and St. Petersburg
Supply
Six shopping centres with a leasable total area of 313,900 sq m were opened in the regions of Russia according
to results for H1 2021, which is twice as high as in 2020 in total.
The key openings of H1 2021 were SEC Planeta (83,100 sq m) in Perm, SEC RaMus Mall (78,000 sq m)
in Nizhnekamsk and the SEC Maxi (76,000 sq m) in Kirov, as well as the landmark opening of SEC Forum, phase II
in Ulan-Ude (14,500 sq m).
Despite the active start of openings in H1 2021, it is already known that the annual volume of commissioning
has decreased by 17% due to postponements of openings.
In general, the average shopping centre provision in Russia reached 200 sq m per 1,000 people
(against 194 sq m in 2020).
Figure 1
Total amount of retail space in Russia, thousand sq m (excluding Moscow and St. Petersburg), 2013-2021F
Source: Colliers
1 800
1 600
1 400 H1 H2
thousand sq m (GLA)
1 200
1 000
800
574
600
400
200
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021F
3
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
Currently, regional cities in Russia with populations of one million plus account for 18.7 million sq m
of high-quality retail space, and the shopping centre provision reaches 553 sq m per 1,000 people, which
is 2.8 times more than the average indicator for the whole Russia.
The continuing attractiveness of million-plus cities is reflected in the volume of annual commissioning in 2021.
Cities with a population of less than 300,000 are the second largest in terms of commissioning. For example,
119,000 sq m are planned to be commissioned in 2021, which indicates interest among developers to build new
high-quality facilities in less populated cities.
Figure 2
Completions of quality retail space in regional cities by population group*
Source: Colliers
900
800
700
600
499
thousand sq m (GLA)
453
500
391
363
342
400
316
313
312
276
269
300
217
183
182
176
172
163
128
200
119
117
108
89
74
72
71
62
53
51
42
100
41
38
10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cities with population of over 1m Cities with population of 0.5–1m
Cities with population of 300,000–500,000 Cities with population less than 300,000
*All Russian cities except Moscow and St. Petersburg
4
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
Yekaterinburg (742 sq m) became the leader among million-plus Russian cities (excluding Moscow
and St. Petersburg) in terms of the retail space provision for residents during H1 2021, Samara (724 sq m) took
second place, while Nizhny Novgorod (537 sq m) closes the Top 3.
Despite the opening of the first Super Regional site of SEC Planeta, Perm remains the city with the least retail
space provision (245 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants).
The indicator for the saturation of retail space in Perm should increase to 291 sq m per 1,000 people by the end
of 2021 due to the opening of phase I of MUC Esplanada, which will include a shopping centre with 40,500 sq m
GLA, and due to the opening of phase II of SEC Speshi Love (7,000 sq m GLA).
Figure 3
Shopping centre provision (per 1,000 capita/sq m) and
supply of high-quality shopping centers in million-plus cities
Source: Colliers
1 200 742 800
700
1 000 724
537 600
495
thousand sq m (GLA)
800 453 500
496 471 376
600 384 400
353 308
245 300
400 298
200
200
100
0 0
Rostov-on-Don
Nizhny Novgorod
Omsk
Voronezh
Samara
Perm
Kazan
Chelyabinsk
Ufa
Krasnoyarsk
Novosibirsk
Volgograd
Yekaterinburg
Supply Shopping centre provision (right axis)
5
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
Demand
Grocery
Two of the largest grocery retail deals in recent years are scheduled for 2021. The federal chain Magnit plans
to gain control over 2,612 Dixy stores and 39 compact Megamart hypermarkets. The food retailer Lenta has
announced the purchase of the Russian division of Billa (Austria), which includes 161 supermarkets
(GBA 138,000 sq m). In addition, the main European discounter Lidl is preparing to debut in Russia.
Fashion
The Swedish fashion clothing and household goods brand Arket has announced its development plans in Russia.
The opening of a single-brand store is expected in the autumn of 2021. Other international brands debuted
in new regions. For example, in SEC FORUM in Ulan-Ude, such brands as Bershka and Terranova were opened.
Helly Hansen conquered two cities at once in H1 2021 — Pskov (SEC Fjord Plaza) and Nizhnevartovsk
(MUC Green Park). Two interesting openings were recorded in St. Petersburg: the first store of the Italian fashion
brand Calliope in SEC MEGA Dybenko and the first concept store of the Swedish brand H&M Home (968 sq m)
in a three-story historical building on Bolshoy Ave.
Electronics
The M.Video group announced the opening of the fiftieth store of the Eldorado 250 retail chain
and the expansion of the new format to 50 more locations. The new stores are conceptually part of the online
platform Eldorado, where outlets are points of delivery for online orders.
Discount stores
The hard discounter Svetofor has begun active expansion in St. Petersburg. In 2021, it plans to open 10-15
stores. Magnit is scaling its ultra-cheap network My Price, with 33 stores opened from July 2020 to April 2021.
Also, the Spar grocery chain is planning to develop a network of discount stores under the Smart brand.
Hypermarkets
Many hypermarket retailers are developing in new regions. For example, DIY Leroy Merlin plans to build its
first hypermarket in Buryatia (GBA 16,700 sq m), and the sports goods hypermarket Decathlon is planning to
open its store in Novosibirsk (GBA 8,600 sq m). Some operators are creating new retail formats. For example,
Magnit announced the launch of a DIY store under the brand Magnit Master, the food retailer Lenta will open
stores in the convenience store format, and Globus began testing car stalls in Russia (the first of them opened in
Vladimir). In addition, Decathlon will open corners with an area of 350 sq m in Globus hypermarkets. Also, the
Danish furniture retailer JYSK, which debuted in Moscow in 2020, announced the opening of its first regional city
store at SEC Maxi in Tula in Q3 2021.6
E-commerce
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
The share of e-commerce in retail turnover will grow every year. In 2020, the share was 8.1% (previously,
according to preliminary data, 9.6% was announced), and by the end of 2021, this is due to increase
by 2.8 percentage points to 10.9%.
The steady growth of the domestic online retail market against the background of the growth of competitive
activity and the quality of services of Russian companies, as well as the arrival of foreign operators, led
to the active development of the domestic labour market. Foreign companies see prospects in the development
of e-commerce in Russia, so they are ready to invest in full-fledged online stores and in the development
of infrastructure and create new jobs.
Figure 4
Market volume and share of e-commerce
Source: Data Insight, ACORT
12 70
58
10 60
50
8 42
37
40
6 31
%
28 27
25 30
22
4 17,8
14,2 26,1 20
10,9 21,8
8,1
2 5,1 10
4,1
1,3 1,7 2,7 3,8 5,2 6,8 8,7 10,9
0 0
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
RUB trillion
The volume of the e-commerce market, RUB trillion
The share of e-commerce in retail trade, %
Growth of the e-commerce market, %
Table 2
The largest e-commerce markets in the world, 2020
Source: Data Insight, ACORT
The volume of Growth of
Markets
the e-commerce market, $bn the e-commerce market, YoY %
China $955 5%
USA $374 9%
Japan $187 8%
United Kingdom $133 13%
South Korea $124 19%
Germany $92 16%
France $50 9%
India $44 29%
Russia $37 58%
Canada $28 12%7
Restrictive measures
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
Some Russian cities began to introduce new restrictions on businesses and citizens due to the deterioration of
the epidemiological situation in the country in Q2 2021.
Table 3
Restrictive measures introduced
Source: compiled by Colliers on the basis of resolutions
Moscow Saint-Petersburg
• From 21.06 The work of food courts has been • From 17.06 The work of food courts in the
suspended (the exception is takeaway) shopping centre has been suspended (the
• From 21.06 The work of children's playrooms has exception is takeaway)
been suspended • From 17.06 The occupancy rate of cinemas is not
• From 28.06 Entrance to restaurants (including more than 50% of the number of seats
inside the shopping center) is carried out with • From 17.06 The activity of retailers that do not
the presence of QR codes. The verandas are open have a trading floor in the shopping centre has
as usual until 01.08 been suspended
• From 17.06 Entertainment and leisure activities in
the shopping centre have been suspended (with
the exception of aquariums, libraries, fitness
centers)
Republic of Buryatia Murmansk region
• 12.06-30.06 The work of food courts and catering • From 23.06 The work of food courts has been
facilities that do not have a separate entrance from suspended (the exception is takeaway)
the street to the shopping centre (the exception is • From 23.06 The work of children's playrooms has
takeaway), children's entertainment zones, been suspended
cinemas, etc. has been suspended. The working • From 23.06 The occupancy rate of cinemas is not
hours of the shopping centre are limited (8 pm) more than 50% of the number of seats
• 15.06-30.06 Persons under the age of 14 (inclusive)
are restricted from visiting the shopping centre
without accompanying parents
• 28.06-11.07 Lockdown was announced due to the
deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus
(the exception is life-support services)
Public organisations and industry issues
The pandemic year of 2020 and the new wave of coronavirus in 2021 posed a serious challenge to the business
community to combine their expertise and efforts to defend the interests of the retail industry in order to soften
the blow from the new restrictions. During the negotiations of shopping centre owners and management
companies with the RSCS, issues related to the further development and stabilisation of the retail business
in the Russian market in the current conditions were raised and resolved:
• Shopping centres were among the most affected at the height of the pandemic, but their targeted support
was difficult due to the lack of their own classifier codes, different from ordinary retail stores. So, in H1 2021,
OKVED 68.20.21 was created (effective from 01.07.2021) for shopping centres. The approval of independent
codes will provide an opportunity to distinguish between activities and services for renting and managing
own or leased commercial real estate and other types of non-residential real estate.
• The RSCS also raised the question of the expediency of adopting a new draft law, which involves fixing
the VAT tax at 0% for domestic online stores. According to members of the RSCS, the adoption of this project
will not only have a negative impact on the balance of the development of the retail market in Russia,
but will also additionally entail new economic difficulties for landlords and other subjects of offline retail
trade due to the inequality of taxation.8
Retail market. Shopping centres
H1 2021| Regions
Key trends
Emotional connection of retailers with customers
In the current conditions, retailers are trying to awaken new emotions in their customers, developing new store
formats (corners, pop-up kiosks, discount stores, etc.) and channels (online sales, cooperation with marketplaces
and delivery services/parcel locker companies) and expanding their product range (healthy lifestyle and eco,
product line diversification, etc). Innovations lead to the strengthening of retailers’ deep emotional connections
with consumers, which subsequently increases the trust and loyalty of customers.
Expanded geography of retailers
Local and international retailers are actively expanding their presence on the Russian market and opening
outlets in new regional cities. Most often, retailers open their first store in regional cities in new and high-quality
shopping centres. For example, in phase II of SEC FORUM in Ulan-Ude, which opened in H1 2021, two brands
debuted – Terranova and Bershka. Norwegian sportswear and equipment brand Helly Hansen has chosen two
shopping centres in regional cities for debuts – SEC Fjord Plaza, opened in 2019 in Pskov, and MUC Green Park,
opened in 2020 in Nizhnevartovsk.
‘Near-home’ store format as a point of attraction
The pandemic gave an impetus to the development of shops and services within walking distance from home.
For example, the Lenta hypermarket chain decided to open stores in the ‘near-home’ format, following its
competitors, and the Magnit federal grocery chain plans to open a chain of ‘near-home’ DIY stores under
the Magnit Master brand. Meanwhile, Kidburg, the largest operator of children's educational leisure, which
previously preferred to open in shopping centres, decided to develop in a new format — openings in new
residential complexes, making its services available to consumers.
Taking care of yourself and the environment
The trend towards a healthy lifestyle has prompted retailers and PM companies to introduce and create
products, new F&B formats, shopping centres and gyms. In addition, entire medical centres have begun
to be deployed in shopping centres — mobile vaccination teams (the first teams appeared in the Moscow
region). One of the regional examples of the introduction of the healthy lifestyle trend in a shopping centre
was the St. Petersburg online project RIO Ryadom, in which experts and tenants tell visitors about healthy living.
The project is aimed at increasing customer loyalty and at providing serious support to the tenants of the facility.
This is the embodiment of environmental ideas in external architecture and in internal design. Shopping centres
have begun to reduce the ecological footprint of facilities. This attracts the attention of city residents,
the administration and socially significant organisations of a city to the topic of green living and the need to take
a personal part in improving the state of the environment. Such concepts have already been considered by some
regional shopping centres under the management of Colliers: SEC FORUM in Ulan-Ude (organisation
of separate garbage collection), SEC Murmansk Mall in Murmansk (a project to collect wastepaper
from the population and organisations), SEC PIK in St. Petersburg (pandomats for collecting recyclables), etc.Contacts
Retail Department Research Marketing & PR
Anna Nikandrova Veronika Lezhneva Olga Bakulina MCIM
Partner Director Regional Director
+7 495 258 5151 +7 495 258 5151 +7 495 258 5151
Anna.Nikandrova@colliers.com Veronika.Lezhneva@colliers.com Olga.Bakulina@colliers.com
Strategic Consulting Lolita Leontyeva
Analyst
Vladislav Nikolaev +7 495 258 5151
Regional Director Lolita.Leontyeva@colliers.com
+7 495 258 5151
Vladislav.Nikolaev@colliers.com
Copyright © 2021 Colliers Russia, 123112
This report gives information based primarily on Colliers's data, which may be 10 Presnenskaya Embankment
helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector. However, no warranty is given as BC Naberezhnaya Tower
to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the Block C, 52 floor
forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report, and they must not be relied
on for investment or any other purposes. The outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus
(COVID-19), declared by the World Health Organisation as a “Global Pandemic” on
the 11th March 2020, has impacted market activity in many sectors, creating an
unprecedented set of circumstances on which to base a judgement. This report
does not constitute and must not be treated as investment or valuation advice or an
offer to buy or sell property. Given the unknown future impact that COVID-19 might
have on real estate market supply, demand and pricing variables, we recommend
that you recognise that our research and analysis is far more prone to market
uncertainty, despite our endeavours to maintain our robust and objective reporting.You can also read
