Smallsats by the Numbers 2018 - Bryce Space and Technology

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Smallsats by the Numbers 2018

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Overview

 Introduction
 Definitions
 Recent Events and Trends
 The Big Picture of Smallsats
 Commercial Smallsats
 Government Smallsats
 Non-Profit and Academic Smallsats
 CubeSats
 Outlook

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Introduction
What are smallsats?
  Smaller satellites of increasing interest; more widely used in recent years
  These satellites are generally under 600 kg, although definitions may vary;
  600 kg and under reflects the five smallest mass classes defined by the FAA
  ‘Smallsat’ often used to refer to smaller satellites; smallsats are also referred
  to as ‘very small satellites’
  CubeSats are an established “kit” form of smallsat
   •   Use standard 10 cm3 form factor (1U), ~ 1 kg
   •   Can combine to form 3U, 6U, 12U, or more

               Mass Class Name           Kilograms (kg)            Pounds (lbs)
                      Femto                  0.01 – 0.1              0.02 – 0.2
                       Pico                   0.09 – 1                0.19 – 2
                      Nano                    1.1 – 10                 3 – 22
                      Micro                  11 – 200                 23 – 441
                       Mini                  201 – 600              422 – 1,323
               From FAA The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2018
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Definitions
Smallsat Applications

           COMMUNICATIONS     TECHNOLOGY          MILITARY AND
                              DEVELOPMENT        INTELLIGENCE

                    REMOTE SENSING      SCIENTIFIC

                                                                 3
Recent Events and Trends
2012 – 2017

  In 2012, smallsats began to see significantly increased usage
  Over 1,000 smallsats launched from 2012 to 2017
  2017 saw 6x as many as smallsats launched as 2012
  Government and commercial sectors are capitalizing on heightened
  interest in smallsats
  Launch vehicle accidents have affected the rate of smallsat
  deployment
  Cubesats have dominated the smallsat market; over 700 launched
  from 2012 through 2017

                                                                     4
Recent Events and Trends
2017 Activity

   335 smallsats launched
   An Indian PSLV rocket broke the record for the most number of
   satellites launched simultaneously—104 satellites at once, with 88 of
   these being Planet’s Dove satellites
   87% of smallsats launched were CubeSats
   67% of smallsats launched provide commercial services

                                                                           5
The Big Picture of Smallsats
                                All Satellites Launched, 2012 – 2017

                                500
                                450                                                    Extra Heavy
Number of Satellites Launched

                                400                                                    Heavy
                                                                                       Large
                                350
                                                                                       Intermediate
                                300
                                                                                       Medium
                                250
                                                                                       Small
                                200
                                                                                       Mini
                                150                                                    Micro
                                100                                                    Nano    Smallsats
                                 50                                                    Pico
                                  0                                                    Femto
                                       2012     2013     2014     2015   2016   2017

                                                                                                      6
The Big Picture of Smallsats
Smallsats Launched, 2012 – 2017
                                  Launch vehicle accidents have affected rate of smallsat                                       2015 Super Strypi,
                                                       deployment                                                                Falcon 9 launch
                                                                                                                                     failures
                                  400                                                         25                                 21 smallsats lost
  Number of Satellites Launched

                                  350
                                                                                              20
                                  300

                                                                                                   Number of Launches
                                                                                                                        Femto
                                  250                                                         15                        Pico
                                  200                                                                                   Nano

                                  150                                                         10                        Micro
                                                                                                                        Mini
                                  100
                                                                                              5                         Number of Launches
                                   50

                                    0                                                         0
                                         2012     2013    2014    2015     2016    2017                                             2017 Soyuz 2.1b
                                                                                                                                     launch failure
                 2014 Antares                                                                2016 Falcon 9                          17 smallsats lost
                launch failure                                                                pad accident
               29 smallsats lost                                                            Smallsat launches
                                                                                            delayed into 2017
                                                                                                                                                     7
The Big Picture of Smallsats
Smallsat Applications, 2012 – 2017
                                300

                                250
Number of Satellites Launched

                                200                                                Telecomunications
                                                                                   Technology Development
                                150                                                Military and Intelligence
                                                                                   Remote Sensing
                                100                                                Scientific
                                                                                   Other
                                 50

                                  0
                                      2012   2013   2014    2015   2016   2017

                                 Planet represents 52% of all remote sensing smallsats 2012 – 2017

                                                                                                               8
The Big Picture of Smallsats
Smallsat Operator Type, 2012 – 2017
                                300

                                250

                                                                                Academic
Number of Satellites Launched

                                200                                             Commercial

                                                                                Government Civil
                                150
                                                                                Government Military

                                                                                Non Profit
                                100

                                 50

                                  0
                                      2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017

                                                                                                      9
Commercial Smallsats
2012 – 2017

  In the last six years, over 475 commercial smallsats launched
  From 2013 to 2014, the total number of smallsats launched by the
  commercial sector increased almost nine-fold
  85% of all commercial smallsats are for remote sensing
  65% of all commercial smallsats were manufactured by Planet
  US companies have manufactured 90% of commercial smallsats
  launched 2012 – 2017
  Planet and Spire account for more than ¾ of commercial smallsats
  launched 2012 – 2017

                                                                     10
Commercial Smallsats
Smallsats by Application, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched)

                             1
                              1

                            27
                                   36

                     495
                                                    Communications
                                                    Development
                                                    Remote Sensing
                      Commercial
                                                    Scientific
                       Smallsats
                                                    Other
                       Launched

                     430

                                                                     11
Commercial Smallsats
     Market Share by Manufacturer, Operator, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched)

                   Manufacturers                                     Operators

                                                                                 Planet
                                                          4     66
              78                   Planet             5
6        6                                                                       Spire Global
                                   Spire Global            19
    16
                                                                                 ORBCOMM
                                                                                  Orbcomm
                                                                                 Orbital
                                   Sierra Nevada                                 Communications
                                   Corporation            71                     Satellogic SA
         71                        Surrey Satellite
                           319     Technology Ltd
                                                                          331    GeoOptic s
                                   Astro Digital
                                                                                 Other
                                   Other

                                                                                          12
Government Smallsats
2012 – 2017

  More than 200 government smallsat launched
  39% of government smallsats were CubeSats
  The USA launched twice as many military smallsats as Russia (based
  on public sources)
  60% of military smallsats used for technology development (based on
  public sources)
  Over 1/3 of civil smallsats launched were from the USA, mostly
  NASA
  45% of civil smallsats were used for development, followed by remote
  sensing (32%), communications (12%), and scientific (11%)

                                                                     13
Government Smallsats
Government Smallsats by Country of Operator, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched)

                                    Canada
                                      5

                                         China
                                          20

                                             Europe
                                               19        India
                     USA                                   5
                      93
                                                          Japan
                                                             9

                                                 Other
                                                  32

                                Russia
                                  37

                                                                   14
Government Smallsats
Largest Government Smallsat Operators, 2012 – 2017 (sats launched)

       Service Type           Operator          Number of Smallsats
                                NASA                    31
                             Roscosmos                  10
           Civil               Smolsat                  8
                         China National Space
                                                        5
                            Administration
                                DoD                     31
           Military
                         Los Alamos National
      (based on public                                  12
                             Laboratory
          sources)
                            Russian MoD                 11

                                                                      15
Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats
2012 – 2017

  The number of academic and non-profit organizations that
  manufacture smallsats nearly quadrupled between 2012 and 2017
  96% of non-profit and academic organizations that have deployed
  smallsats in the past six years both manufactured and operated them
  Over the last six years, 88 non-profit and academic organizations
  launched smallsats, many deploying only one or two
  Over 240 smallsats used for technology development
  Almost 3/4 of all development smallsats launched by academic and
  non-profit organizations were CubeSats

                                                                      16
Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats
Smallsat Share by Operator, 2012 – 2017

       Non-Profit Operators                               Academic Operators

                                                                                Kyushu Institute of
                                                            8 6                 Technology
                           The Aerospace                        6
                  13                                                6           Nanyang Technical
                           Corporation                                  6
                                                                            6   University

        32                 DFH Satellite Co. Ltd.
                                                          56                    San Jose State
                                                                                University (SJSU)
       Unique                                          Unique
                       6   Breakthrough Starshot                                Tsinghua University
 34   Operators                                       Operators                 (Beijing)
                   4       Other                                                University of Colorado
                                                    186                         at Boulder
                                                                                University of Toronto

                                                                                Other

                                                                                                17
CubeSats
2012 – 2017

  In total, over 725 CubeSats launched between 2012 and 2017
  representing almost 50% of all satellite launches
  CubeSats launched per year grew from 23 in 2012 to over 290 in
  2017
  The United States has manufactured the most CubeSats
  Over half of all CubeSats launched from 2012 to 2017 provided
  commercial services
  Planet’s Dove CubeSats represent 75% of all commercial CubeSats
  launched between 2012 and 2017
  89% of all CubeSats for academic applications were development
  satellites
  54% of government CubeSats launched for civil purposes

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Outlook
What Lies Ahead for Smallsats?

  Smallsat business ventures will be seeking to prove their business
  models and generate significant revenue in the next few years
  Deployment of future generations of smallsats in many cases
  depends on this success
  Large constellations of smallsats (1,000+ sats) for global broadband
  are in development by OneWeb, SpaceX, Boeing, others
   •   Required investment for these systems is $ billions
   •   Business models are not yet proven
   •   Large numbers of sats could have profound effects on manufacturing, launch
  Dozens of new small launchers in development target smallsats
   •   Virgin Orbit, Rocket Lab, and Vector have announced contracts
   •   All three companies are conducting test flights, target operations in 2018
   •   Key business risks: uncertainty about future smallsat deployment, competition
       from larger vehicles
  Large smallsat constellations raise concerns about orbital debris

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Contact

Bryce Space and                             Authors
Technology                                  C. Brennan Bok
                                            Amy Comeau
Corporate Offices                           Anton Dolgopolov
                                            Tara Halt
1199 North Fairfax Street, Suite 501        Caroline Juang
Alexandria, VA 22314
                                            Phil Smith
(703) 647-8078
info@brycetech.com

    twitter.com BryceSpaceTech

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    linkedin.com/company/bryce-space-tech

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