SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG

 
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
SMART 2020: Enabling the
low carbon economy in the
information age
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
A report by The Climate Group on
behalf of the Global eSustainability
Initiative (GeSI)

©Creative Commons 2008 Attribution
Noncommercial-No Derivative Works
Prior to distributing, copying or reporting
this work contact The Climate Group
(info@theclimategroup.org) or GeSI
(info@gesi.org).

Supporting Organisations
GeSI and member companies: Bell Canada,
British Telecommunications Plc, Cisco
Systems, Deutsche Telekom AG, Ericsson,
France Telecom, Hewlett-Packard, Intel,
Microsoft, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks,
Sun Microsystems, T-Mobile, Telefónica
S.A., Telenor, Verizon, Vodafone Plc.
Additional support: Dell, LG.

Steering Committee
Deutsche Telekom AG
Luis Neves, Chair of GeSI
The Climate Group
Emily Farnworth
Chair of Steering Committee
British Telecommunications Plc
Chris Tuppen
Cisco Systems
Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio
Intel
Robert Wright
LG
Alexander Grossmann
Nokia Siemens Networks
Juha-Erkki Mantyniemi
T-Mobile
Allison Murray
Vodafone Plc
Joaquim Croca

Project Director
Molly Webb, The Climate Group

Independent Analysis
McKinsey & Company

Acknowledgements
The report was developed independently
on behalf of GeSI. Particular thanks to the
members of the Steering Commitee and the
editorial team, who helped develop and
sustain the project. The analysis contained
in this report would not have been possible
without contributions from McKinsey,
Jason Adcock and Anna da Costa, co-editing
by Chris Tuppen and Juan Carlos Castilla-
Rubio and editorial support from Flemmich
Webb and Karen Anderton. Special thanks
for the participation of individuals in the
sponsoring companies (listed above) who
were involved throughout the analysis.
We are grateful to the experts we consulted
for general guidance and to develop our
regional case studies (Appendix 5) and also
to the many others not listed who
have supported along the way.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Support for the report
economy in the information age                         3

Support for the report

This rigorous assessment underlines that the           This report gives a clear picture of the key role
world can realise a green economy and make             that the ICT industry plays in addressing climate
the transition to a low carbon economy. It also        change globally and facilitating efficient and low
underlines the crucial importance of the               carbon development. The role of ICT not only
international community reaching a deal on a           includes emission reduction and energy savings
new climate agreement at the climate convention        in the ICT sector itself, but also benefits from the
meeting in Copenhagen in 2009. This partnership        adoption of ICT technologies to influence and
between GeSI (convened under UNEP) and The             transform the way our society works and the way
Climate Group, with analytical support from            people behave. By using our huge network and
McKinsey, gives us yet another platform for            over 400 million customers, China Mobile is doing
action and yet another compelling reason for           its best to promote this transformation and to
reasoned optimism. Achim Steiner, UN Under-            realise real sustainable development for human
Secretary General and Executive Director, UN           beings and the environment. Wang Jianzhou,
Environment Programme (UNEP)                           Chief Executive, China Mobile Communications
                                                       Corporation
Nowhere is ICT’s vast potential more apparent
than India where it is driving opportunity and         Unlocking the universal potential of clean
development and transforming our economy               technology in the information systems sector is a
and society. This important report makes clear         critical step toward a low carbon future. Silicon
the exciting opportunity that exists for industry      Valley innovators and the growing support of
to significantly contribute to climate change          clean tech investors in California place the state in
abatement, as well as expand into new markets.         a unique position to lead the effort to combat
Nandan Nilekani, Co-Chairman, Infosys                  global warming. Linda Adams, Secretary,
Technologies Limited                                   California Environmental Protection Agency

The ICT industry has a very significant role to play
in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially
in a rapidly developing country such as China.
Future development in China should not follow
the wrong path taken by developed countries.
Many industries can make use of modern ICT
technology to move into higher efficiency low
carbon markets. If we are to better use ICT
technology to move away from existing energy-
intensive work habits and lifestyles, we need
government policy innovations, incentives for
companies and the active participation of
consumers. Tang Min, Deputy Secretary-General,
China Development Research Foundation
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon   Contents
     economy in the information age        5

     Contents

06 Forewords
09 Report summary
   Chapter 1:
12 The time for change
   Chapter 2:
17 Taking direct action
     Chapter 3:
29   The enabling effect
29   Dematerialisation
32   SMART motor systems
36   SMART logistics
40   SMART buildings
45   SMART grids
   Chapter 4:
53 The SMART 2020 transformation
     Appendices
63   1: Scope, process and methodology
65   2: The direct impact assumptions
66   3: The enabling effect assumptions
75   4: Company commitments
79   5: Experts consulted and/or interviewed
83   6: Glossary
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   GeSI Foreword
economy in the information age                        6

Forewords

A force for change                                    2. Put more emphasis on climate change issues
The most recent results presented by climate              in our supply chain work so we influence the
scientists are alarming. The accumulation of              end-to-end manufacturing process for
greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere                  electronic equipment
is growing faster than originally predicted.
Scientists, economists and policy makers are          3. Ensure that energy and climate change matters
calling for emissions targets of at least 20%             are fully considered by the organisations that
below 1990 levels in 2020.                                set the technical standards for our industry
            It is our responsibility to estimate
the GHG emissions from the information and            4. Work with organisations in the key opportunity
communications technology (ICT) industries                areas – travel/transport, buildings, grids and
and to develop opportunities for ICT to contribute        industry systems – to help turn potential CO2        About GeSI
to a more efficient economy.                             reductions into reality. This will include a strong   GeSI (www.gesi.org) is an international
            “SMART 2020 – Enabling the low               emphasis on the significant opportunities             strategic partnership of ICT companies and
                                                                                                               industry associations committed to creating
carbon economy in the information age”                   offered by dematerialisation                          and promoting technologies and practices
presents the case for a future-oriented ICT                                                                    that foster economic, environmental and
                                                                                                               social sustainability and drive economic
industry to respond quickly to the challenge of       5. Work with public policy makers to ensure that        growth and productivity. Formed in 2001,
global warming.                                           the right regulatory and fiscal frameworks are       GeSI fosters global and open cooperation,
                                                                                                               informs the public of its members’
            We now have evidence demonstrating            in place to move us all in the right direction.      voluntary actions to improve their
that the ICT industry is a key player in creating a                                                            sustainability performance and promotes
                                                                                                               technologies that foster sustainable
low carbon society and could do a lot more to help    We will do this by involving appropriate partners        development. It partners with the UNEP
push the world in this direction by 2020.             drawn from the business and NGO worlds.                  and the ITU. These partners help shape
                                                                                                               our global vision regarding the evolution
            The ICT sector’s own emissions are        In particular we aim to continue our successful          of the telecommunications sector and how
expected to increase, in a business as usual (BAU)    partnership with The Climate Group. We will              we can best meet the challenges
                                                                                                               of sustainable development.
scenario, from 0.53 billion tonnes (Gt) carbon        also continue to work collaboratively with the
dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2002 to 1.43 GtCO2e      International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
in 2020. But specific ICT opportunities identified    and the World Business Council for Sustainable
in this report can lead to emission reductions five   Development (WBCSD).
times the size of the sector’s own footprint,
up to 7.8 GtCO2e, or 15% of total BAU emissions       In conclusion
by 2020.                                              The ICT sector has both a profitable opportunity
            This report has identified many           and a critical role to play with other sectors to
opportunities for the ICT industry, to replace        design and deploy solutions needed to create
goods and services with virtual equivalents and       a low carbon society. I urge you to review this
to provide technology to enable energy efficiency.    report and focus your efforts on improving
The ICT sector must act quickly to demonstrate        energy efficiencies wherever possible, to
what is possible, get clear messages from policy      collaborate with us in steering regulations to
makers about targets and continue to innovate         be more productive and to move boldly forward
radically to reduce emissions. The publication        with technologies to improve our global climate.
of this report is not an end but a beginning and      Acting now will be good for business, good for
GeSI is committed to continue to work across          the economy and good for the world.
the industry as a force for change. In particular
GeSI will:

1. Develop an agreed ICT industry-wide
    methodology for the carbon footprinting           Luis Neves
    of ICT products and services                      Chair, GeSI
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age - BNRG
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The Climate Group Foreword
                                                economy in the information age                          7

                                                The SMART solution                                      Companies that implement the solutions will
                                                Putting a man on the moon was one of the                capture part of the potential global savings of
                                                greatest technological challenges of the 20th           ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion), once again showing
                                                century. In the 21st century we face an even            that tackling climate change is not only good for
                                                greater test – tackling climate change. In contrast     the climate but good for the economy.
                                                to the space race, the solutions required today                     Given the unpredictable nature
                                                must encompass us all. This is not just about one       of technological innovation, there is always
                                                man walking on the moon, but about 7 or 8 billion       uncertainty in estimating future impacts and this
                                                people, the population of 2020, living low carbon       report has identified a number of hurdles that
                                                lifestyles in harmony with our climate.                 must be overcome if the large savings highlighted
                                                            How can a mission of this size be           are to be realised. Furthermore, the ICT sector will
                                                achieved? This report illustrates for the first         have to focus on reducing its direct footprint as
                                                time the scale of the opportunity for ICT to drive      the demand for its products and services grows.
                                                efficiency across the economy and deliver               But this is the first time that the potential of ICT
                                                emission savings of 15% – 7.8 GtCO2e – of global        to reduce emissions has been put on the same
                                                BAU emissions in 2020.                                  plane as other climate change solutions, such as
                                                            Recently, Lord Stern revised his targets    carbon capture and storage (CCS).
                                                for safe levels of GHG emissions reductions to                      This sends a clear message to industry
                                                2 tonnes per capita by 2050 (20 GtCO2e). The            leaders and policy makers around the world that,
                                                ICT-enabled solutions in this report would make         through collaboration, ICT solutions can unlock
                                                possible savings of 1 tonne per capita in 2020,         emissions reductions on a dramatic scale.
                                                a significant step in the right direction.                          To get things moving forward, this
                                                            When we started the analysis, we            report launches our new SMART framework,
                                                expected to find that ICT could make our lives          a guide for developing ICT solutions. Through
                                                ‘greener’ by making them more virtual – online          standards, monitoring and accounting (SMA)
                                                shopping, teleworking and remote communication          tools and rethinking (R) and optimising how
                                                all altering our behaviour. Although this is one        we live and work, ICT could be one crucial piece
                                                important aspect of the ICT solution, the first and     of the overall transformation (T) to a low
                                                most significant role for ICT is enabling efficiency.   carbon economy.
                                                            Consumers and businesses can’t                          The Climate Group, along with GeSI,
About The Climate Group
The Climate Group is an independent,            manage what they can’t measure. ICT provides            will be taking the report’s findings to the USA,
not-for-profit organisation that works          the solutions that enable us to ‘see’ our energy        China, India and Europe to work with decision
internationally with government and
business leaders to advance climate change      and emissions in real time and could provide the        makers and leading companies to develop a set
solutions and accelerate a low carbon           means for optimising systems and processes to           of scenarios – the vision – focused on how to turn
economy. Its coalition of proactive leaders
– from government, business and civil           make them more efficient. Efficiency may not            the ideas presented here into a global reality.
society – has demonstrated that emissions       sound as inspirational as a space race but, in the                  Putting a man on the moon was
reductions, essential to stop climate change,
can be achieved while boosting profitability    short term, achieving efficiency savings equal to       once thought impossible. The next “giant leap
and competitiveness. More companies,            15% of global emissions is a radical proposition.       for mankind” is within our reach, but only if
states, regions and cities around the world
are realising there are significant economic    The breadth of solutions will span motor systems,       we act now.
as well as environmental advantages from        logistics and transport, buildings and electricity
taking decisive action now. The Climate
Group was founded in 2004 and has offices       grids – across all key economies in the world.
in the UK, USA, China, India and Australia.                 Mature economies will be able to
A European office is planned for 2008.
                                                upgrade and optimise entrenched systems
                                                and infrastructures. Developing countries
                                                could ‘leapfrog’ inefficient mechanisms and
                                                integrate state-of-the-art solutions into their         Steve Howard
                                                evolving societies.                                     CEO, The Climate Group
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Report summary
                                                 economy in the information age                         9

                                                 Report summary

1
 The Stern Review suggested that                 The ICT sector has transformed the way we live,        Our analysis identifies some of the biggest and
developed countries reduce emissions
20-40% below the 1990 levels would be
                                                 work, learn and play. From mobile phones and           most accessible opportunities for ICT to achieve
a necessary interim target based on IPCC         micro-computer chips to the internet, ICT has          these savings.
and Hadley Centre analysis. Source: Stern,
N (2008), Key Elements of a Global Deal
                                                 consistently delivered innovative products and
on Climate Change, London School of              services that are now an integral part of everyday     •Smart motor systems: A review of
Economics and Political Science, http://
www.lse.ac.uk/collections/climateNetwork/
                                                 life. ICT has systematically increased productivity      manufacturing in China has identified that
publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_           and supported economic growth across both                without optimisation, 10% of China’s emissions
30Apr08.pdf
2
                                                 developed and developing countries. But what             (2% of global emissions) in 2020 will come from
 All currency conversions to US$ based
on exchange rate ¤1=$ 1.57757, obtained
                                                 impact do pervasive information and                      China’s motor systems alone and to improve
at http://xe.com on 9th June 2008.               communication technologies have on global                industrial efficiency even by 10% would deliver
3
  Exact figures: ¤553 billion ($872.3 billion)   warming? Is it a sector that will hinder or help         up to 200 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings.
in energy and fuel saved and an additional
¤91 billion ($143.5 billion) in carbon saved,
                                                 our fight against dangerous climate change?              Applied globally, optimised motors and
assuming a cost of carbon of ¤20/tonne,                      To answer these questions, this report       industrial automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e
for a total of ¤644 billion ($1,015 billion)
savings.
                                                 has quantified the direct emissions from ICT             in 2020, worth ¤68 billion ($107.2 billion).4
4
 All value figures here include a cost for
                                                 products and services based on expected
carbon of ¤20/tonne. See Appendix 3 for          growth in the sector. It also looked at where ICT      • Smart logistics: Through a host of efficiencies
detailed assumptions.
                                                 could enable significant reductions of emissions          in transport and storage, smart logistics in
                                                 in other sectors of the economy and has quantified        Europe could deliver fuel, electricity and heating
                                                 these in terms of CO2e emission savings and               savings of 225 MtCO2e. The global emissions
                                                 cost savings.                                             savings from smart logistics in 2020 would reach
                                                             Aside from emissions associated with          1.52 GtCO2e, with energy savings worth
                                                 deforestation, the largest contribution to                ¤280 billion ($441.7 billion).
                                                 man-made GHG emissions comes from power
                                                 generation and fuel used for transportation.           • Smart buildings: A closer look at buildings in
                                                 It is therefore not surprising that the biggest role      North America indicates that better building
                                                 ICTs could play is in helping to improve energy           design, management and automation could save
                                                 efficiency in power transmission and distribution         15% of North America’s buildings emissions.
                                                 (T&D), in buildings and factories that demand             Globally, smart buildings technologies would
                                                 power and in the use of transportation to                 enable 1.68 GtCO2e of emissions savings, worth
                                                 deliver goods.                                            ¤216 billion ($340.8 billion).
                                                             In total, ICTs could deliver
                                                 approximately 7.8 GtCO2e of emissions savings          • Smart grids: Reducing T&D losses in India’s
                                                 in 2020. This represents 15% of emissions in 2020         power sector by 30% is possible through better
                                                 based on a BAU estimation. It represents a                monitoring and management of electricity
                                                 significant proportion of the reductions below            grids, first with smart meters and then by
                                                 1990 levels that scientists and economists                integrating more advanced ICTs into the
                                                 recommend by 2020 to avoid dangerous climate              so-called energy internet. Smart grid
                                                 change1 In economic terms, the ICT-enabled                technologies were the largest opportunity
                                                 energy efficiency translates into approximately           found in the study and could globally reduce
                                                 ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion2) of cost savings.3          2.03 GtCO2e , worth ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion).
                                                 It is an opportunity that cannot be overlooked.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Report summary
economy in the information age                         10

While the sector plans to significantly step up
the energy efficiency of its products and
services, ICT’s largest influence will be by
enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors, an
opportunity that could deliver carbon savings five
times larger than the total emissions from the entire
ICT sector in 2020.

These are not easy wins. There are policy, market      This is the opportunity the ICT sector has in the     5
                                                                                                               The scope of this analysis includes whole
                                                                                                             life emissions from PCs and peripherals,
and behavioural hurdles that need to be overcome       fight against climate change. But it does come at     data centres, telecoms networks and
to deliver the savings possible. For example,          a cost. Emissions from the sector are estimated       devices.
Chinese factory managers find it difficult to stop     to rise significantly over the coming years – from
producing long enough to implement more                0.5 GtCO2e today to 1.4 GtCO2e in 2020 under
efficient industrial processes because they risk       BAU growth.5 This growth assumes that the sector
losing revenue and competitiveness.                    will continue to make the impressive advances
             Logistics efficiency is hampered by       in energy efficiency that it has done previously.
fragmentation in the market, which makes it            However, meeting the sheer scale of demand for
difficult to coordinate across the sector to achieve   products and necessary supporting services in
economies of scale. Even with the latest               emerging markets such as China and India and
technologies implemented, buildings are only           continuing to deliver the services to increase
efficient if managed properly. In India, there is no   productivity growth in the developed world will
coordinated national roadmap for smart grid            effectively outweigh the adoption of the current
implementation and more needs to be done to            wave of efficiency benefits per product or service.
build the cross-functional and cross-sectoral          There is also the possibility that the speed of
capabilities needed to design and implement            introduction and the impact of new ICT
innovative business and operating models and           technology or the mass adoption of social
deliver new technology solutions.                      networking could cut carbon emissions in ways
             In addition to the savings possible by    currently impossible to predict.
supporting other sectors to become more energy                     While the sector plans to significantly
efficient, there are also potential energy savings     step up the energy efficiency of its products and
from dematerialisation or substitution – replacing     services , ICT’s largest influence will be by
high carbon physical products and activities (such     enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors,
as books and meetings) with virtual low carbon         an opportunity that could deliver carbon savings
equivalents (e-commerce/e-government and               five times larger than the total emissions from the
advanced videoconferencing). Our study indicates       entire ICT sector in 2020.
that using technology to dematerialise the way we
work and operate across public and private sectors     Getting SMART
could deliver a reduction of 500 MtCO2e in 2020        The scale of emissions reductions that could be
– the equivalent of the total ICT footprint in 2002,   enabled by the smart integration of ICT into new
or just under the emissions of the UK in 2007.         ways of operating, living, working, learning and
However, these solutions would need to be more         travelling makes the sector a key player in the
widely implemented than they are today to realise      fight against climate change, despite its own
their full abatement potential.                        growing carbon footprint. No other sector can
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   Report summary
economy in the information age                        11

supply technology capabilities so integral to         that drive low carbon alternatives can be
energy efficiency across such a range of other        developed and diffused at scale across all sectors
sectors or industries.                                of the economy.
            But with this potential comes                          The ICT sector can’t act in isolation if it
responsibility. Emissions reductions in other         is to seize its opportunity to tackle climate change.
sectors will not simply present themselves; the       It will need the help of governments and other
ICT sector must demonstrate leadership on climate     industries. Smart implementation of ICTs will
change and governments must provide the               require policy support including standards
optimum regulatory context. This report outlines      implementation, secure communication of
the key actions needed.                               information within and between sectors and
            These actions can be summarised as the    financing for research and pilot projects.
SMART transformation. The challenge of climate                     This report demonstrates the potential
change presents an opportunity for ICT to first       role the ICT sector could play in mitigating
standardise (S) how energy consumption and            climate change. It is now up to policy makers,
emissions information can be traced across            industry leaders and the sector itself to make
different processes beyond the ICT sector’s own       sure this potential is realised. The stakes couldn’t
products and services. It can monitor (M) energy      be higher.
consumption and emissions across the economy
in real time, providing the data needed to optimise
for energy efficiency. Network tools can be
developed that allow accountability (A) for
energy consumption and emissions alongside
other key business priorities. This information can
be used to rethink (R) how we should live, learn,
play and work in a low carbon economy, initially
by optimising efficiency, but also by providing
viable low cost alternatives to high carbon
activities. Although isolated efficiency gains do
have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform
– or a set of technologies and architectures –
working coherently together, that will have the
greatest impact. It is through this enabling
platform that transformation (T) of the economy
will occur, when standardisation, monitoring,
accounting, optimisation and the business models
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The time for change
economy in the information age.                        01/12

01: The time for change

The science                                            would incur a wider range of risks and impacts        6
                                                                                                               Pachauri, R.K. and A. Reisinger (eds.)
                                                                                                             (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis
As stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on            and the estimates of damage could rise to 20%         Report. Contribution of Working Groups I,
Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2007 Synthesis Report:         of global GDP or more. In contrast, the costs         II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report
                                                                                                             of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,         of action – reducing GHG emissions to avoid           Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
as is now evident from observations of increases       the worst impacts of climate change –                 7
                                                                                                               McKinsey analysis for this report, based
in global average air and ocean temperatures,          can be limited to around 1% of global GDP             on IPCC (2007), Fourth Assessment Report
                                                                                                             and International Energy Agency (IEA)
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising          each year.                                            (2007), World Energy Outlook.
global average sea level.”6                                        The review predicts that failure to act   8
                                                                                                               Recent analysis suggests that 450ppm may
           The global warming debate has now           today and in the future could cause possibly          be too high and that we should be aiming to
                                                                                                             reduce emissions more quickly: King D. and
shifted from whether or not man-made climate           irreversible economic and social disruption           G. Walker (2008), The Hot Topic: How to
change is occurring to what atmospheric levels         “on a scale similar to those associated with the      Tackle Global Warming and Still Keep the
                                                                                                             Lights On; Hansen J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha,
of GHG are “safe” and what can be done to              great wars and the economic depression of the         D. Beerling., V. Masson-Delmotte,
prevent them from exceeding this threshold.            first half of the 20th century”.                      M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D. Royer and
                                                                                                             J. Zachos (2008); Target Atmospheric CO2:
           Current BAU scenarios predict that                      Lord Stern has recently joined            Where Should Humanity Aim?, http://www.
global emissions will rise from 40 GtCO2e              scientists in outlining the worsening nature          columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/
                                                                                                             TargetCO2_20080331.pdf
(referred to as both “carbon” and “GHG”                of the problem. His report on the economics
                                                                                                             9
                                                                                                              Stern, N (2006), Executive Summary,
emissions in this report) emitted each year in         of climate change should have issued a bleaker        Stern Review on the Economics of Climate
2002 to nearly 53 GtCO2e annually by 2020.7            warning when it was published 18 months               Change, HM Treasury.
Current atmospheric GHG levels stand at 430            ago, he said recently, “We underestimated the         10
                                                                                                                Harvey, F and J. Pickard, “Stern takes
                                                                                                             bleaker view on warming”, Financial
parts per million (ppm) and are rising at              risks... we underestimated the damage                 Times, 17 April 2008, http://www.ft.com/
approximately 2.5ppm every year, leading us            associated with the temperature increases...          cms/s/0/d3e78456-0bde-11dd-9840-
                                                                                                             0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
beyond levels of 450-500 ppm (roughly twice            and we underestimated the probabilities of
                                                                                                             11
                                                                                                                Stern, N. (2008), Key Elements of a Global
pre-industrial levels).                                temperature increases.”10                             Deal on Climate Change, London School of
           The specific figures for what can be                    Society currently needs to reduce         Economics and Political Science, http://
                                                                                                             www.lse.ac.uk/collections/climateNetwork/
considered “safe” are not universally accepted8        emissions to about 20 GtCO2e per year by              publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_
and will continue to be debated as new                 2050, according to Stern, about two tonnes per        30Apr08.pdf
information becomes available. Whichever               person in 2050. Given that the current underlying
benchmark is used, the magnitude of cuts               rate of decrease in carbon intensity, defined as
required will be challenging.                          tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e)/
                                                       GDP, is 1% per year and that the world
The economics                                          economy continues to grow by 3-4% per year,
Former UK Government and World Bank                    carbon emissions will continue to grow at
Chief Economist Lord Stern, author of the              2-3% per year under a BAU scenario. So to
Stern Review,9 makes it clear that to ignore           reduce emissions by 20 GtCO2e per year, as
rising carbon emissions that will result in            recommended by Stern, implies that a dramatic
dangerous climate change now will damage               change is needed in production and
economic growth in the future. According to            consumption profile.11
the report, if no action is taken, the overall costs               Both policy makers and industry must
and risks of climate change will be equivalent to      initiate the rapid implementation of climate
losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product    solutions before average global temperatures
(GDP) each year. Not acting now                        move beyond a “tipping point” of no return.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The time for change
                                                economy in the information age                          01/13

12
  EU Spring Summit, Brussels                    The political response                                  wealth. A number of studies have linked the
(March 2007).
13
                                                Thirty-four countries have signed up to the             growth of ICT to global GDP growth and
     UK Climate Change Bill (April 2008).
14
                                                legally binding Kyoto Protocol, the agreement           globalisation. One analysis16 suggests that a third
  Germany’s Integrated Energy and Climate
Programme (December 2007).
                                                negotiated via the United Nations Framework             of the economic growth in the Organisation for
15
  China’s 11th Five -Year Economic Plan,
                                                Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which            Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
www.gov.cn/english/special/115y_index.          sets a target for average global carbon emissions       countries between 1970 and 1990 was due to
htm
16
                                                reductions of 5.4% relative to 1990 levels by           access to fixed-line telecoms networks alone,
   Roeller, Lars H. and L. Waverman
(2001), ‘Telecommunications Infrastructure
                                                2012. Discussions for a post-2012 agreement             which lowered transaction costs and helped firms
and Economic Growth: A Simultaneous             are currently underway.                                 to access new markets.
Approach’, American Economic Review,
Volume 91, Number 4, pp. 909-23.
                                                            Individual regions and countries have                   Globally, the ICT sector contributed
17
   Analysis includes data from Global Insight
                                                also developed their own targets. In 2007, the          16% of GDP growth from 2002 to 2007 and
(www.globalinsight.com).                        European Union (EU) announced a 20% emissions           the sector itself has increased its share of GDP
18
  Waverman, L., M. Meschi and M. Fuss           reduction target compared to 1990 levels by 2020        worldwide from 5.8 to 7.3%. The ICT sector’s
(2005) The Impact of Telecoms on Economic
Growth in Developing Countries, Africa: The
                                                and will increase this to 30% if there is an            share of the economy is predicted to jump
Impact of Mobile Phones, Vodafone Policy        international agreement post-2012.12 The UK is          further to 8.7% of GDP growth worldwide from
Paper Series 2.
19
                                                aiming for a reduction of 60% below 1990 levels         2007 to 2020.17
  Eggleston K., R. Jensen and R.
Zeckhauser (2002) ,‘Information and
                                                by 2050, with an interim target of about half                       In low income countries, an average
Communication Technologies, Markets and         that.13 Germany is aiming for a 40% cut below           of 10 more mobile phone users per 100 people
Economic Development’, Discussion Papers
Series, 0203, Department of Economics,
                                                1990 levels by 2020,14 while Norway will become         was found to stimulate a per capita GDP growth
Tufts University.                               carbon neutral by 2050. California’s climate            of 0.59%.18 In China, improved communication
20
   Jensen R. (2007), ‘The Digital Provide:      change legislation, known as AB 32, commits the         has helped increase wealth by driving down
Information (Technology), Market
Performance and Welfare in the South
                                                state to 80% reductions below 1990 levels by            commodity prices, coordinating markets and
Indian Fisheries sector’, Quarterly Journal     2050. China’s latest five-year plan (2006-2010)         improving business efficiency.19 In Kerala, India,
of Economics, cited in: Economist, To do
with the Price of Fish, 10 May 2007, http://
                                                contains 20% energy efficiency improvement              the introduction of mobile phones contributed
www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.         targets15 to try to reduce the impact of recent fuel    on average to an 8% rise in fishermen’s profits
cfm?story_id=9149142.
21
                                                shortages on its economic growth.                       and a 4% fall in consumer prices.20
  Member companies of GeSI:
Alcatel-Lucent, Bell Canada, British
                                                            As governments across the world wake
Telecommunications Plc, Cisco Systems,          up to the urgency of rising temperatures, they
Deutsche Telekom AG, Ericsson, European
Telecommunication Network Operators
                                                are increasingly focusing on how business is              Scope, process and methodology
Association (ETNO), France Telecom, Fujitsu     responding to both reduce their carbon footprints         The study was undertaken by a unique
Siemens Computers, Hewlett-Packard,
Intel, KPN, Motorola, Microsoft, Nokia,
                                                and to develop and supply the required                    partnership between not-for-profit
Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Sun             innovations for a low carbon world.                       organisation The Climate Group and ICT sector
Microsystems, Telecom Italia, Telefónica SA,
US Telecom Association, Verizon, Vodafone
                                                                                                          group GeSI.21 The supporting analysis was
Plc.                                            What does this mean for business?                         conducted independently by international
Associate members: Carbon Disclosure            Companies must adapt quickly to the political,            management consultants McKinsey &
Project (CDP), WWF.
                                                social, economic and fiscal drive towards a global        Company. Input was provided by GeSI member
Supporting organisations: ITU,
Telecommunication Development Bureau,
                                                low carbon economy. Businesses that can turn this         companies and the global experts consulted for
UNEP Division of Technology, Industry and       challenge into an opportunity, by developing              each of the case studies.
Economics.
                                                business models to enable adoption of low carbon                     The combined knowledge and
                                                solutions, will be in a stronger position to mitigate     experience of this group has enabled us to
                                                rising carbon emissions and adapt to a world              identify and quantify specific ICT impacts
                                                dealing with the impacts of climate change.               and opportunities, in the context of carbon
                                                A radical approach is required that incorporates          emission savings and potential economic
                                                different ways of thinking, living, working,              value. In addition, the analysis drew on
                                                playing, doing business and developing solutions.         additional data from the ICT companies
                                                Action is no longer an option; it has become an           involved in the study. It estimated the likely
                                                urgent necessity.                                         growth of the ICT sector’s carbon footprint
                                                                                                          and, more importantly, the carbon emissions
                                                What does this mean for the ICT sector?                   savings and business opportunities that are
                                                The terms “the new economy”, “the knowledge               possible when ICT is deployed across the
                                                economy” and “the information society” all refer          economy. A detailed methodology can be
                                                to the world’s increasing reliance on ICT to provide      found in Appendix 1.
                                                services and solutions that ultimately generate
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The time for change
economy in the information age                          01/14

This demonstrates that the ICT sector continues         In order to approach the second and third              22
                                                                                                                  IEA (2008), Worldwide Trends in Energy
                                                                                                               Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from IEA
to play a vital role in the growth of the global        questions, it was important to know which sectors      Indicator Analysis, IEA/OECD, Paris.
economy and international development.                  are responsible for producing the highest levels of
As the imperative to develop zero carbon growth         carbon emissions and therefore where ICT might
solutions becomes stronger, society needs to            enable reductions. Of the total emissions from
lower emissions while continuing to serve the           human activity in 2002, 24% was from the power
needs of people in emerging economies, to               sector, 23% from industry, 17% from agriculture
develop poverty reduction schemes and enable            and waste management, 14% from land use,
multiple sectors across the world. What,                14% from transport and 8% from buildings.
therefore, are the next steps for ICT? Could            Taking another view of the same data – at the
it apply its creativity and skills to help reduce       point where electricity is consumed and fuel is
carbon emissions by massively enabling                  used – sharpens the focus further. In 2005,
efficiency or behaviour change? How big an              manufacturing was 33% of end-use energy
impact could it have? And how will that affect          consumption, transport was 26% and households
its carbon footprint?                                   29% (other services and construction made up
                                                        the final 12%).22
The SMART way                                                       The findings of the analysis are highly
In order to understand and compare the direct           illuminating. Because of its pervasiveness, ICT
impact of ICT products and services and its             is a key, though often unrecognised enabling
enabling role in climate change solutions, the          infrastructure in the global economy. The sector
analysis set out to answer three main questions:        can enable smart development opportunities for
                                                        CO2e reductions and participate in the new
1. What is the direct carbon footprint of the          sources of value of low or zero carbon solutions
    ICT sector?                                         markets at the same time as restricting the growth
2. What are the quantifiable emissions reductions      of its own carbon footprint.
    that can be enabled through ICT applications in                 Even as the sector tackles its own
    other sectors of the economy?                       carbon footprint, the need to mitigate climate
3. What are the new market opportunities for ICT       change presents opportunities for ICT to deliver
    and other sectors associated with realising these   low carbon energy efficiency solutions. The sector
    reductions?                                         has a unique ability to make energy consumption
                                                        and GHG emissions visible through its products
Because of growth in demand for its products and        and services. Radical transformation of
services, mainly from emerging economies and            infrastructure is possible only if it is known where
the rapid adoption in the developed world, the          inefficiency occurs throughout the processes and
ICT sector’s own carbon footprint is likely to grow     workflows of various sectors in the economy.
under BAU conditions to 1.4 GtCO2e by 2020,             ICT can provide the data, which can be used to
three times what it was in 2002. Chapter 2 looks        change behaviours, processes, capabilities and
at the reasons for this growth and assesses what        systems. Although isolated efficiency gains do
can be done to reduce it and the hurdles that           have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform –
need to be overcome for the sector to attain            or a set of technologies – working coherently
maximum efficiency.                                     together that will have the greatest impact.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                    The time for change
             economy in the information age                                         01/15

             Fig. 1 ICT impact: The global footprint and the
             enabling effect
             GtCO2e                                                                                                        Emissions
                                                                                                                           ICT footprint
                                                                                                                           Selected ICT-enabled
                                                                                                                            abatements
                                                                                                                             ther abatements†
                                                                                                                            O
2002                                                                                       40.0
                                                                                           ICT 0.5

2020                                                                                                             51.9
                                                                                                                 ICT 1.4
BAU
                                                                        -14.1*                       - 7.8            Five times
Abatements                                                                                                            ICT’s direct
                                                                                                                      footprint

2020 with                                                               30†
abatements

             * For example, avoided deforestation, wind power or biofuels.
             † 21.9 GtCO2e abatements were identified in the McKinsey abatement cost curve and from estimates in this study. Source: Enkvist P., T.
             Naucler and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1.

             This report has identified global emissions                            In Chapter 3, the report looks at five of the most
             reductions of 7.8 GtCO2e in 2020, five times its                       important “levers” or mitigation opportunities:
             own footprint (Fig.1).                                                 dematerialisation; smart motor systems in China;
                                                                                    smart logistics in Europe; smart buildings in North
              The ICT sector can enable emission reductions                         America; and smart grids in India. It considers the
             in a number of ways:                                                   impact of ICT on local and global emissions, where
                                                                                    ICT could have the most influence on emissions
             • Standardise: ICT can provide information in                         reductions, current markets, regulatory context
                standard forms on energy consumption and                            and hurdles that need to be overcome if its
                emissions, across sectors                                           potential to reduce emissions is to be realised.
             • Monitor: ICT can incorporate monitoring                                        In parallel with the ICT reducing its
                information into the design and control for                         own carbon footprint, governments need to do
                energy use                                                          more to create a fiscal and regulatory
             • Account: ICT can provide the capabilities and                       environment that will encourage faster and more
                platforms to improve accountability of energy                       widespread adoption of ICT. Crucially, new
                and carbon                                                          partnerships between governments and the
             • Rethink: ICT can offer innovations that                             private sector are required. Chapter 4 develops
                capture energy efficiency opportunities                             a framework for understanding the enabling
                across buildings/homes, transport, power,                           opportunity of ICT solutions.
                manufacturing and other infrastructure and
                provide alternatives to current ways of
                operating, learning, living, working and
                travelling
             • Transform: ICT can apply smart and integrated
                approaches to energy management of systems
                and processes, including benefits from both
                automation and behaviour change and develop
                alternatives to high carbon activities, across all
                sectors of the economy.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                     Taking direct action
                                                economy in the information age                                          02/17

                                                02: Taking direct action

23
  Gartner, Green IT: The New Industry           In 2007, analyst Gartner released the statistic that                    developments outlined in the rest of the chapter
Shockwave, presentation at Symposium/
ITXPO conference, April 2007.
                                                the ICT sector was responsible for 2% of global                         are implemented, this figure looks set to grow at
24
   Of course a range of figures are possible,
                                                carbon emissions23 and this figure has since been                       6% each year until 2020. The carbon generated
but the report took a BAU scenario with the     widely cited. The analysis conducted for this                           from materials and manufacture is about one
best information available from companies
and public sources. See Appendix 1 for
                                                report came to similar conclusions. This chapter                        quarter of the overall ICT footprint, the rest
detailed methodology and Appendix 2 for         sets out in some detail how today’s 2% figure was                       coming from its use (Fig. 2.1).
the direct footprint assumptions.
                                                calculated and the assumptions behind the                                           Although there is expected growth in
25
   CIA (2007): World Factbook website,
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/
                                                growth in emissions expected in 2020, taking into                       mature developed markets, the most significant
the-world-factbook/print/ch.html                account likely efficient technology developments                        growth is attributable to increasing demand for
                                                that affect the power consumption of products                           ICT in developing countries (Fig. 2.2). Just one
                                                and services, or their expected penetration in the                      in 10 people owns a PC in China today; by 2020,
                                                market in 2020. Not all technology developments                         that will rise to seven in 10, comparable to current
                                                can be predicted and therefore further possible                         ownership rates in the US. In just 12 years’ time,
                                                abatements are discussed, but not calculated. The                       one in two Chinese people will own a mobile
                                                chapter concludes with a brief section on what                          phone and half of all households will be
                                                more could be done.                                                     connected by broadband. It will be a similar
                                                            In 2007, the total footprint of the ICT                     story in India. By 2020, almost a third of the
                                                sector – including personal computers (PCs) and                         global population will own a PC (currently one
                                                peripherals, telecoms networks and devices and                          in 50), 50% will own a mobile phone and one in
                                                data centres – was 830 MtCO2e, about 2% of the                          20 households will have a broadband
                                                estimated total emissions from human activity                           connection.24 Considering that the populations
                                                released that year. Even if the efficient technology                    of China and India are currently 1.3 billion25 and

                                                Fig. 2.1 The global ICT footprint*
                                                GtCO2e                                                                                               Embodied carbon
                                                                                                                                                     Footprint from use

                                     2002        0.11    0.41
                                                        0.43                                  0.53
                                                                                                                                 2% of total
                                                                                                                                 footprint

                                     2007        0.18        0.64                                                      0.83

                                     2020        0.35                             1.08                                                                                  1.43

                                     CAGR†
                                     +6%
                                                *ICT includes PCs, telecoms networks and devices, printers and data centres.
                                                † Compounded annual growth rate.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                             Taking direct action
economy in the information age                                                  02/18

1.1 billion respectively,26 that consumption                                    measures, data centres will grow faster than any       26
                                                                                                                                            Ibid.
in the Indian economy is expected to quadruple                                  other ICT technology, driven by the need for           27
                                                                                                                                         McKinsey Global Institute
in the next four years and that the middle class                                storage, computing and other information               China Consumer Demand Model, V2.0.

in China is expected to grow to over 80% of the                                 technology (IT) services. Though the telecoms
population by 2020,27 these are potentially                                     footprint continues to grow, it represents a smaller
huge growth areas.                                                              share of the total ICT carbon footprint in 2020 as
            By 2020, when a large fraction of                                   efficiency measures balance growth and as data
developing countries’ populations (up to 70%                                    centres rise to take a larger share of the total
in China) will be able to afford ICT devices and                                (Fig. 2.3).
will have caught up with developed countries’                                               The analysis below took a deeper look
ownership levels, they will account for more than                               at three main areas of the direct footprint: PCs
60% of ICT’s carbon emissions (compared to less                                 and peripherals, data centres, telecoms networks
than half today), driven largely by growth in                                   and devices, outlined below. Appendix 1 provides
mobile networks and PCs. But these are not the                                  more information about what was included in the
fastest-growing elements of the footprint. Despite                              scope of the analysis and Appendix 2 outlines the
first-generation virtualisation and other efficiency                            assumptions behind each in more detail.

Fig. 2.2 The global ICT footprint by geography
% of GtCO2e                                                                                                                                 RoW*          ther
                                                                                                                                                         O
                                                                                                                                            China        industrialised
                                                                                                                                            EiT†         countries
                                                                                                                                                         OECD Europe
2002       17      18        11   13   16    25                % of 0.53                                                                                 US and Canada

2007       23                23             12            10     14        20             % of 0.83

2020       27                                     29                                           10      7     12          14             % of 1.43

CAGR       9                                      9                                             6      3     4            3

%
          *RoW = Rest of the world. (includes India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and Egypt)
          †EiT = Economies in transition. (includes Russia and non-OECD Eastern European countries)

Fig. 2.3 The global footprint by subsector
Emissions by geography
% of GtCO2e                                                                                                                                 T
                                                                                                                                             elecoms infrastructure
                                                                                                                                            and devices
                                                                                                                                            Data centres
                                                                                                                                            PCs, peripherals and printers*
2002       28           14        57                           % of 0.53

2007       37                          14        49                                       % of 0.83

2020       25                                         18              57                                                                % of 1.43

CAGR       5                                          7               5

%
          *Printers were 11% of the total ICT footprint in 2002, 8% in 2007 and will be 12% in 2020.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                    Taking direct action
                                                economy in the information age                                         02/19

                                                Fig. 3.1 The global footprint of PCs –
                                                desktops and laptops
                                                GtCO2e

                          2002                     0.2    0.2                                                                                    Embodied
                                                                                                                                                 U
                                                                                                                                                  se
                          Growth along           0.3            1.2                                   1.5                                     A Increased number of PCs from
                          current trends                                                                                                         592 million to 4067 million*
                                                                                                                                              B 0.23% pa increase in power consumed† and
                          Change in power                                                             0                                          decrease from 15W standby
                          consumption                                                                                                        C S witch in form factor from 84% desktops
                                                                                                                                                 to 74% laptops and desktop monitors
                                                                                                                                                 from 90% CRT to 100% LCD
                          Impacts of expected                         0.1 1.0                         1.1
                          technology
                          developments
                                                 0.2     0.5           0.6
                          2020
                          BAU

                                                * Based on Gartner estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020.
                                                †Based on McManus, T. (2002), Moore’s Law and PC Power, presentation
                                                   to Tulane Engineering Forum.

28
  Printers were included in the overall         PCs and peripherals                                                    are expected to compensate for the increase in
analysis of the ICT footprint, but are not
broken down further in this section.
                                                In the developed world today, PCs (workstations,                       PC computing demand, represented by Row B,
29
  Analysis includes data from Shiffler,
                                                desktops and laptops) are almost as ubiquitous                         so that overall power consumption is not expected
G III. (2007), Forecast: PC Installed Base      in people’s homes as televisions (TVs). This is not                    to grow.
Worldwide, 2003-2011, Gartner.
                                                yet the case in the developing world, but the                                      However, two major technology
                                                explosion in the number of internet cafés                              developments are expected by 2020. First, the
                                                demonstrates that the demand is there.                                 desktop PCs that dominate today’s market (84%)
                                                Growing middle classes in emerging economies,                          will be largely replaced by laptops if adoption
                                                whose newfound wealth will allow them to start                         materialises as forecasted – by 2020, 74% of all
                                                buying PCs at developed country rates, will                            PCs in use will be laptops. Second, all cathode ray
                                                substantially increase the global carbon footprint                     tube (CRT) screens will be replaced by low energy
                                                of these technologies.                                                 alternatives, such as liquid crystal display (LCD)
                                                            In 2002, the PC and monitors’                              screens, by 2020. These two factors explain the
                                                combined carbon footprint28 was 200 MtCO2e                             reduction in carbon footprint in Row C.
                                                and this is expected to triple by 2020 to                                          Taking Rows A, B and C together shows
                                                600 MtCO2e – a growth rate of 5% per annum                             that the 2020 footprint will rise to three times the
                                                (pa) (Fig. 3.1).                                                       emissions in 2002.29
                                                                                                                                   By 2020, laptops will have overtaken
                                                Calculating the PC footprint in 2020                                   desktops as the main source of emissions
                                                The number of PCs globally is expected to                              (Fig. 3.2) and will make up the largest portion
                                                increase from 592 million in 2002 to more than                         (22%) of the global ICT carbon footprint.
                                                four billion in 2020. Row A of Fig. 3.1. shows the                     Desktops with LCD monitors will represent 20%
                                                expected footprint if this growth used today’s                         of the total ICT footprint in 2020, an increase of
                                                PC technology. Since 1986, the power demand                            16% since 2002.
                                                for PCs has only increased at 0.23% pa, a low rate
                                                considering there has been a 45% pa improvement                        Reducing PC emissions further
                                                in computational power. This success has been                          To reduce the total carbon emissions of PCs
                                                achieved by the exploitation of multi-core                             predicted for 2020 to below 2002 levels would
                                                processors and more efficient power supply units.                      require a 95% efficiency improvement in the
                                                By 2020, further advances in power management                          overall impact from PCs. This cannot only be
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                     Taking direct action
economy in the information age                                          02/20

Fig. 3.2 Composition of the PC footprint
MtCO2e

                                            2%

2002                                  6%                               2020
100% = 247                                                             100% = 643
MtCO2e                                                                 MtCO2e
  L aptops                                                               D
                                                                           esktops with
   (6 MtCO2e)                                                             CRT monitors
   D
    esktops with                                          91%            (0 MtCO2e)                  52%               48%
   LCD monitors                                                           L aptops
   (16 MtCO2e)                                                             (333 MtCO2e)
  D
   esktops with                                                          D
                                                                           esktops with
  CRT monitors                                                            LCD monitors
  (226 MtCO2e)                                                            (309 MtCO2e)

Desktops with CRT monitors represented                                 Laptops will represent 22% of the total ICT
44% of the total ICT footprint (91% of 49%).                           footprint (52% of 42%).

Desktops with LCD monitors and laptops                                 Desktops with LCD monitors will represent
represented 4% of the total ICT footprint                              20% of the total ICT footprint (48% of 42%).
(8% of 49%).

Fig. 4.1 The global data centre footprint
MtCO2e

                                                                                                                                 Embodied
2002                                        76                                                                                   U
                                                                                                                                  se
                                                                                                                              A Increased number of servers and
Growth along                                                                                    349                              their necessary power and cooling
current trends                                                                                                                   from 18 million to 122 million*
                                                                                                                              B No increase in power consumption
Power                                                                                           0                                due to new generation technologies
consumption                                                                                                                      across server classes†
                                                                                                                              C S avings from expected adoption
Impacts of expected                                                                                                              of measures (27% efficiency due
technology                                                                                      166                              to virtualisation and 18% due to
developments                                                                                                                     smart cooling and broad operating
                                                                                                                                 temperature envelope)
2020                                                                      259

BAU

                        *Based on IDC estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020, excluding virtualisation.
                        †Power consumption per server kept constant over time.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                        Taking direct action
                                              economy in the information age                             02/21

30
     This category includes blade servers.    achieved by a combination of increased energy              collection of servers, storage devices, network
31
  Assessments based on data made              efficiency and longer product life alone, but will         equipment, power supplies, fans and other
available by GeSI companies for the
purposes of this report.
                                              necessitate changes comparable in scale to that            cooling equipment – which provide information
32
   The net zero increase shown in Row B
                                              enabled by the shift from desktops to laptops.             at our fingertips, supplying business, government,
is due to the adoption of volume servers                  There could also be breakthrough               academia and consumers around the world.
that incorporate technologies such as
multi-core/multi-threading microprocessors
                                              technologies around the corner that would                              In 2002, the global data centre
with more sophisticated power-state           transform how PCs use energy. Examples include             footprint, including equipment use and embodied
sensing and management. Additionally, the
rapid adoption of newer processor micro-
                                              solid state hard drives, which could reduce energy         carbon, was 76 MtCO2e and this is expected to
architectures has refreshed the installed     consumption by up to 50%, choleristic LCD                  more than triple by 2020 to 259 MtCO2e – making
base of servers with a more power-efficient
silicon transistor technology.
                                              screens that reduce monitor energy consumption             it the fastest-growing contributor to the ICT
33
  IDC analysis predicts 83 million servers
                                              by up to 80% and direct methanol fuel cells that           sector’s carbon footprint, at 7% pa in relative
will be needed in 2020 if virtualisation      can deliver 20% savings for power supplies.                terms (Fig. 4.1).
effects are included.
                                                          Other areas of research such as
                                              quantum and optical computing could also have a            Calculating the data centre footprint in 2020
                                              substantial impact. These have not been factored           If growth continues in line with demand, the
                                              into the carbon emission calculations because              world will be using 122 million servers in 2020,
                                              their impact within the timeframe is uncertain.            up from 18 million today. In addition to this 9%
                                                                                                         pa increase in server numbers, there will be a shift
                                              Data centres                                               from high-end servers (mainframes) to volume
                                              In the “information age” there is a vast amount            servers,30 the least expensive kind of server that
                                              of data that is stored and instantly made available        can handle much of the computational needs of
                                              upon request. Users of these data range from               businesses. Row A of Fig. 4.1 shows the increase
                                              companies complying with the recent Sarbanes–              in footprint that would be expected by simply
                                              Oxley accounting data legislation to consumers             scaling up today’s data centre technology without
                                              watching YouTube videos, to the processing and             the application of virtualisation technologies in
                                              storage capabilities required for climate change           data centres.
                                              modelling. This has led to a vast increase in the                      Power consumption differs by server
                                              number of data centres – buildings that house a            type but, like PCs, no increase in overall

                                              Fig. 4.2 Composition of data centre footprint
                                              Global data centre emissions %

                                              2002                                                       2020
                                              100% = 76                          17%                     100% = 259                         18%
                                              MtCO2e                                                     MtCO2e
                                                                                                   36%
                                                 olume servers
                                                V                                                           olume servers
                                                                                                           V
                                                (27 MtCO2e)                                                (136 MtCO2e)
                                                                                                                                                       52%
                                                Cooling systems                                           Cooling systems
                                                 (24 MtCO2e)                                                (70 MtCO2e)               21%
                                                 Power systems           32%                              Power systems
                                                 (13 MtCO2e)                                                 (62 MtCO2e)
                                                 Mid-range servers                                          Storage systems
                                                  (5 MtCO2e)                                                  (18 MtCO2e)                     7%
                                                                                                   6%
                                                  Storage systems                         5% 3%              High-end servers
                                                   (4 MtCO2e)                                                  (5 MtCO2e)
                                                   High-end servers                                           Mid-range servers             1% 1%
                                                    (2 MtCO2e)                                                  (2 MtCO2e)

                                              Volume servers represented 5% of the total                 Volume servers will represent 9% of the
                                              ICT footprint (36% of 14%).                                total ICT footprint (52% of 18%).

                                              Data centre cooling systems represented 4%                 Data centre cooling systems will represent
                                              of the total ICT footprint (32% of 14%).                   4% of the total ICT footprint (21% of 18%).
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Taking direct action
economy in the information age                         02/22

consumption is expected in the coming years,           down the air conditioning. Similarly, in climates       34
                                                                                                                 Estimates based on Koomey, J.G.
                                                                                                               (2007), Estimated Total Power Consumption
in spite of increased processing demand.31             where the outside temperature allows, simply            by Servers in the U.S. and the World,
This is due mainly to new technologies in all          directing external air into the data centre can save    http://enterprise.amd.com/Downloads/
                                                                                                               svrpwrusecompletefinal.pdf.
types of servers32 and explains the net zero           cooling costs for much of the year. By allowing the
                                                                                                               35
                                                                                                                  Uptime Institute and McKinsey &
change in Row B.                                       temperature of the data centre to fluctuate along       Company (2008), Revolutionizing Data
            A major trend driving down the overall     a broader operating temperature range, a 24%            Center Efficiency—Key Analyses, http://
                                                                                                               uptimeinstitute.org/content/view/168/57
growth in the footprint of data centres (Row C) is     reduction in energy consumption from cooling is
virtualisation – pooling assets such as computing      possible. Distributing low voltage direct current
and storage where utilisation is low, so they can      (DC) into the data centre would eliminate the
be used across the enterprise and beyond.              need for mechanical back-up, uninterruptible
Virtualisation represents a radical rethinking         power supply units.
of how to deliver the services of data centres,                    By 2020, the net footprint for data
pooling resources that are underutilised and           centres is predicted to be 259 MtCO2e. At this
could reduce emissions by 27% – equivalent to          point, volume servers will represent more than
111 MtCO2e.33 Technologies are also available to       50% of the data centre footprint (174 MtCO2e)
detect where within the data centre temperatures       and cooling systems for data centres alone will
are running high and to direct cooling to those        amount to 4% of the total ICT footprint (Fig. 4.2).
areas thus delivering a 12% reduction in cooling
costs. By 2020, the analysis predicted that these      Reducing data centre emissions further
measures could achieve an approximate 18%              Additional emission reductions not included in
reduction (55 MtCO2e) in consumption.                  the current 2020 BAU scenario are possible.
            Only about half of the energy used by      Complete adoption of the cooling technologies
data centres powers the servers and storage; the       noted above would result in additional savings
rest is needed to run back-up, uninterruptible         of 65 MtCO2e in 2020.
power supplies (5%) and cooling systems (45%).34                   Higher adoption rates of virtualisation
There are a number of ways to reduce this energy       architectures and low energy cooling would help
overhead, some of which are expected to be             achieve step changes in efficiency. Current
adopted by 2020. The simplest way is to turn           utilisation rates of servers, storage and other

Fig. 5 Global telecoms footprint
(devices and infrastructure)
Global telecoms emissions %

2002                                                   2020
100% = 151                           12%               100% = 349                         15%
                                                                                                   20%
MtCO2e                                                 MtCO2e
    obile
   M                                             42%      M
                                                           obile
   (66 MtCO2e)                                            (179 MtCO2e)
   Fixed narrowband                  91%                 F
                                                           ixed narrowband                              14%
    (64 MtCO2e)                                           (70 MtCO2e)
  Telecom devices           43%                         Telecom devices
   (18 MtCO2e)                                            (51 MtCO2e)
    Fixed broadband                                      F
                                                           ixed broadband                51%
     (4 MtCO2e)                                           (49 MtCO2e)
                                            3%

Mobile phones represented 3% of the total              Mobile phones will represent 1% of the
ICT footprint (11% of 30%).                            total ICT footprint (6% of 25%)

Fixed broadband represented 1% of the                  Mobile networks will represent 13% of the
total ICT footprint (3% of 30%).                       total ICT footprint (51% of 25%)

                                                       Fixed broadband will represent 4% of the
                                                       total ICT footprint (14% of 25%)
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