SNAPSHOT HOUSING MARKET - New Hampshire Housing
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HOUSING MARKET
SPRING 2021
Commentary p.2
SNAPSHOT
WHAT’S INSIDE
$320 Unemployment Rate
(US, NE, NH) p.3
$300 Unemployment Claims
Filed in NH p.4
$280 NH Employment by Type
of Business p.4
$260 Interest Rates
1,600
Refinancing Activity in NH p.5
1,400
$240 Home Affordability for
Essential Workers p.6
1,200
NUMBER OF SALES
1,000
$220
MLS Listings & Inventory p.7
800
MLS Closed Sales
600 $200
MLS Median Sales Price p.8
400
$180
Building Permits p.9
200
-
Building Material Costs p. 10
January February March
$160
2018 2019 2020 Eviction Indicators
Mortgage Delinquencies p. 11
$140
Where Do NH Homebuyers
Come From? p. 12
$120
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
All Homes 12-Mo Moving Average (All Homes) NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING
FINANCE AUTHORITY
P.O. Box 5087 | Manchester, NH 03108
603-472-8623 | NHHFA.org | info@nhhfa.org
NH’S HOUSING MARKET:
A DEARTH OF SUPPLY & A SEARCH FOR SOLUTIONS
Dean J. Christon, Executive Director, New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority
“Concord and the Manchester-Nashua region are among the nation’s top 10 emerging housing markets” ...“Upper Valley home sales
continue hot streak”...“Bonkers housing market”...”NH sees boom in out-of-state homebuyers.” These headlines may sound like hype, but
they are not: New Hampshire is a popular place to live and work, perhaps even more so since the pandemic opened up the possibility that
many could work remotely effectively. Yet our housing inventory – both homes to buy and to rent – and housing affordability are seriously
limiting the places that our state’s workforce will live, raise families, and retire.
While the number of building permits filed for single- and multi-family housing was beginning to increase prior to the pandemic, single-family
building is now up significantly (perhaps in part because of the dampening of demand during the early days of the pandemic). This is encouraging
news for housing supply in the state, yet there is still an urgent need to explore other solutions to expand the state’s housing supply.
When the second set of the 2020 Census results are released, we will learn how the demographics in the Granite State have changed in the
past 10 years. Preliminary data show New Hampshire’s population increased by about 4.6%, or almost 61,000 people, to a total of
1.379 million people since the 2010 Census, a slightly higher rate than in New England. In August, the census details will reveal the impact of
this increase on the amount of federal funds the state receives, as well as on our voting districts. The demographics will also show us more
specifically what the housing needs are for our state.
We continue to watch for and respond to signs that homeowners and renters are experiencing financial stress that may affect their ability
to remain in their homes. The NH Emergency Rental Assistance Program has, to date, distributed $7.5 million to help renters impacted by
the pandemic by providing assistance with rent and utilities so they can remain in their homes. The state also will be receiving federal funds
later this year to provide assistance to homeowners.
In July, we will release the results of our annual Residential Rental Cost Survey. If you are a property owner or manager, there is still time to
participate in this important data initiative. Contact us at info@nhhfa.org to take the short survey now.
DO YOU NEED HELP PAYING YOUR RENT
AND UTILITIES BECAUSE OF COVID-19?
The New Hampshire Emergency Rental Assistance Program provides NEW HAMPSHIRE
assistance to eligible residents who cannot pay their rent and utilities
due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Find out if you qualify. Emergency
Rental Assistance
Apply at a Community Program
Action Partnership
(CAP) agency.
APPLY ONLINE AT CAPNH.ORG OR CALL 2-1-1 FOR ASSISTANCE.
2 NHHFA.org New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
U.S., New England, New Hampshire - 3/2021 New Hampshire’s
seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate for
6.0% 3.0%
March 2021 was
3.0%
6.4%
18% PRIOR TO THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS,
New Hampshire’s unemployment
16% rate had been below 4%
for over five years. The state’s
14% seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate on March 12 prior to the onset
12% of the pandemic was 2.4%.
Now, unemployment claims due
10%
to job loss, layoffs or furlough are
about the same nationally and
8%
regionally at about 6%.
6%
In New Hampshire, the rate has
dropped to 3.0%, which is notably
4% lower than New England
as a whole and the U.S.
2%
0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (seasonally adjusted)
US NE NH
New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT NHHFA.org 3
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS FILED
Weekly Claims Filed in New Hampshire (through 4/24/2021)
20,077
CONT.CLAIMS
120,000
100,000
1,509
INIT. CLAIMS
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,077
20,000
Unemployment claims peaked in
1,509 May 2020. Currently, the number
0
of continued claims has dropped to
20,077, a 2% decrease from
the previous week.
Initial claims peaked in the week
Initial Claims Continued Claims ending 4/4/2020; as of 4/24/2021,
initial claims were down
92% from the peak.
NH Employment by Type of Business (from 3/2020 to 3/2021) Continued claims peaked in the week
ending 5/9/2020; as of the week
ending 4/24/2021, continued claims
were down 86% from the peak.
Industry % Change
Am usem ent, Gam bling, and Recreation Industries -29.90% The table showing employment by
type of business depicts the impact of
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation -24.32% the pandemic on various industries.
Full-Service Restaurants -16.99% Non-office, lower-wage and hourly
jobs still show a significantly higher
Leisure and Hospitality -15.59% rate of unemployment in these
Accommodation and Food Services -13.85% occupations.
Federal Governm ent -2.44%
are compiled by reflecting week ended;
Sources: (top) U.S. Department of Labor; count totals
(bottom) New Hampshire Department of Employment Security www.nhes.nh.gov/index.htm
4 March
NHHFA.org
2020 to March 2021 New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT 4INTEREST RATES APRIL 2021
Mortgage Interest | Fed Funds | 10-Year Treasury
9
8
3.06%
MORTGAGE
7 3.62%
3.06% Mortgage
6
5
1.64%
PERCENT
Historically low interest rates
TREASURY
4
continue to favor homebuying
3 1.64% 10 Year Treasury
and home refinancing.
2 Refinancing activity in the state
0.07%
1 tripled from January - April 2019 to
FED FUNDS
January - April 2021.
0 0.07% Fed Rate
The refinancing boom has
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
provided homeowners with the
opportunity to take cash out for
home improvements as well
as to shorten the length of
REFINANCING ACTIVITY IN NH
their mortgages.
January through April
21,752 REFINANCING ACTIVITY
13,429
+62 %
from January - April 2020
6,499
2019 2020 2021
Sources: (top) Freddie Mac Primary National Mortgage Market Survey; US Federal Reserve Selected Interest Rate H.15; (bottom) The Warren Group
New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT NHHFA.org 5
+ 62% from Jan-Apr 2020HOME AFFORDABILITY BY OCCUPATION
Essential Workers – Profession & Income (2019)
Buying a home is a challenge in
this tight market, where afford-
able homes priced $300,000 or
less are on the market for under
a month. The extremely low
inventory of homes and a
competitive market in which
there are frequently bids over
$300,000 asking price, makes it especially
POLICE OFFICER
challenging for those who are in
VOCATIONAL NURSE
the essential worker professions
PLUMBER
$250,000 to be able to afford to
MACHINIST
FIREFIGHTER
buy a home.
$200,000
HOME PRICE
NURSING ASSISTANT
$150,000
RETAIL SALES
CASHIER
$100,000
L
$50,000
INCOME $23,000 $25,000 $31,000 $45,000 $46,000 $53,000 $54,000 $58,000
Source: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau
Assumptions: Housing costs are 30% of annual income; Mortgage: 5% down; 2.88% interest rate with 0.7 points;
estimated statewide property tax of $20.27 per $1,000 of valuation.
6 NHHFA.org New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOTMLS LISTINGS IN NH
MAY 2021
4,613
MAY 2020
9,000
5,654
23 %
8,000
7,000
2019
NUMBER OF LISTINGS
6,000
2020
5,000 2019
2020 2021
4,000
2021
3,000
2,000 Compared to the number of listings
from the past three years, the
1,000
inventory in 2021 is notably lower.
- Months of supply of inventory
January February March April May shows how many months it would
take for the current inventory of
MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
February March April homes on the market to sell, given
the current pace of sales.
12 Home sales reflect just how
fast-paced the market is -
10 see page 8.
As has been the case for the past
8 five years, homes in NH under
ACTIVE means properties
MONTHS
on the market that $300,000 are generally on the
6 do not have a contract. market for less than month. In April
2021, there were 1,506 sales, an
4
increase of 12% from April 2020.
In April 2021, the median price hit a
2 0.6
0.6 record high of $362,250
0.4 (16% higher than April 2020).
-
0.4 Typically, annual peak prices occur
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
in summer. The impact of all these
factors is a rapid increase in the
All
Active Only Active ≤ $300K sales price of homes as well as bids
Source: Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership, over asking price.
seasonal camps/cottages, multi-family properties, mobile/manufactured homes and commercial/industrial property.
New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT NHHFA.org 71,600 1,400 CLOSED SALES
1,200 March 2020 1,356
1,400 CLOSED SALES March 2021 1
1,400 1,200 March 2020 1,356
-0
NUMBER OF SALES
March 2021 1,350
March 2020 1,356
- 0.4%
MLS CLOSED SALES IN NH
1,200 1,000
NUMBER OF SALES
1,800 1,000
March 2021 1,350
1,200
NUMBER OF SALES
1,000 800 CLOSED SALES March 2021
APRIL 2021 1,350
NUMBER OF SALES
1,600
1,000 800
600
April 2020 1,349 1,506
+ 12%
1,400 800
April 2021 1,506
800 600
APRIL 2020
NUMBER OF SALES
1,200 400
1,349
600
600 400
1,000
400 200
800 400 200
$320
200 - $320
600 $320 January February March
200 - $300
$300
January February 2020 March
12%
- 2018 2019 2021
400 $300
January $280 February
2018 2019 2020 March
2021
- $280
200 January
$280 February
2018 2019 2020 March
2021
$260
$260
2018 2019 2020 2021
- $260
January February March $240 April
$240
MLS MEDIAN SALES PRICE Thousands
2018 2019
$240 2020 2021
$220
$220
$220
$200
$200
$350
$320 $200
$180
$180
$330
$300 $180
$160
$310 $160
$280
$160
$140
16%
$290 $140
$260
$140
$270 $120
$240 $120
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Thousands
$120
Thousands
$250
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
$220
All Homes
All Homes 12-Mo
12 per.Moving Average
Mov. Avg. (All Homes)
(All Homes)
$230
$200 All Homes 12-Mo Moving Average (All Homes)
$362K
APRIL
2021
$210
$180
$160
$190
$140
$170
APRIL
$313K
2020
$120
$150
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
All Homes 12 per. Mov. Avg. (All Homes)
All Homes 12 per. Mov. Avg. (All Homes)
Source: Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership,
seasonal camps/cottages, multi-family properties, mobile/manufactured homes and commercial/industrial property.
8 NHHFA.org New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOTBUILDING PERMITS ISSUED IN NH
Single-Family & Multi-Family Units (as of 3/2021)
700
600
After a decade of slow increases
in single-family building permits,
500 the issuance of permits rose
rapidly in 2020. This was
contrary to predictions at the
NUMBER OF PERMITS
onset of the pandemic, and is
400
consistent with the escalation in
home prices statewide in the
second half of 2020.
300
Multi-family permit activity has
been increasing much more
slowly since the Great Recession,
200
and despite periodic monthly
spikes in activity, the overall
trend remains more modest.
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Single Family Multi-Family 2021
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Construction Statistics Division (12-month moving average of actual permits issued)
New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT NHHFA.org 9COST OF BUILDING MATERIALS
Producer Price Index for Softwood Lumber Products
500
460
450
400 The price for building materials,
and in particular lumber, has
350 skyrocketed in the past year. This
230 impacts new construction as well
300 200 190 190 180 190
180 as the home renovation market.
170
COST
250
160 160 According to the Producer Price
150
Index by Commodity for lumber
200 and wood products, softwood
lumber shows an increase of
150 121% since April of 2020 and
119% increase from April 2019.
100
According to Robert Dietz,
50
chief economist at the National
0 Association of Home Builders,
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 “It’s adding about $36,000 to
the price of a typical newly built
home and almost $13,000 to a
typical apartment.”
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Commodity:
Lumber & Wood Products; Softwood | Units: Index 1982=100, Not seasonally adjusted
10 NHHFA.org New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT 10EVICTION INDICATORS — NH DISTRICT COURTS
2021 YTD Through 5/7/2021
10,000
8,000
EVICTIONS.
To legally evict a tenant in
NH, a landlord must first file
6,000 a Landlord/Tenant Writ with
the court. A judge determines
if a writ of possession court
4,000 order will be issued, allowing
a landlord to have a tenant
lawfully removed from the
2,000 home.
Governmental actions to stop
evictions during the pandemic
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021YTD
have impacted the numbers on
this graph.
Landlord Tenant Writ Cases Filed Writs of Possession Issued
Source: Landlord/Tenant Writ Filings & Writs of Possession, New Hampshire Judicial Branch
2021 YTD Through 5/7/2021
MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES
Percent of Loans Past Due Q1-2021
CT 6.99% MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES.
In Q1-2021, New Hampshire
ME 5.59% had the fewest proportion of
MA 5.35% mortgage loans that were past
due, compared to New England
NH 4.74% as a whole, as well as the U.S.
RI 5.74%
VT 5.28%
NE 5.78%
US 6.12%
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
New
Chart TitleHampshire
Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOT NHHFA.org 11
Percent of Loans With Foreclosure Initiation In Quarter 1-2021WHERE DO NH HOMEBUYERS COME FROM?
Percentage of Overall NH Home Sales (2016 - Q1 2021)
80%
70% Is New Hampshire’s torrid
housing market being impact-
60% ed by people from out of state
coming here to live full-time and
work remotely? This pandemic
50%
trend has been widely reported
and tracked, particularly the
40% movement of families from
urban areas to suburban or
30% rural areas, like New Hampshire.
The state has long been a popular
20%
place to own a second home.
If people can work remotely, and
10% do not need to live near their
employers, this could influence
0% where they live long-term.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
As 2020 ended, there was a
slight increase in the proportion
of buyers from Massachusetts
and other states.
Q1-2021 shows about a
*Through Q1, 2021 5% increase from 2020 when
compared to overall purchases
All other states/countries Massachusetts New Hampshire by Bay State buyers.
Source: The Warren Group
12 NHHFA.org New Hampshire Housing | Spring 2021 Housing Market SNAPSHOTNEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING
FINANCE AUTHORITY
Report prepared by the
Policy, Planning and
Communications Group
P.O. Box 5087 | Manchester, NH 03108
603-472-8623 | NHHFA.org | info@nhhfa.orgYou can also read
