Street Retail Market Saint Petersburg 2020 - 12.1% vacancy rate 10 to 30% decrease in rental rates

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Street Retail Market Saint Petersburg 2020 - 12.1% vacancy rate 10 to 30% decrease in rental rates
12.1%              10 to 30%         13.8%
vacancy rate       decrease          annualized
                   in rental rates   rotation rate

Street Retail

                                                     knightfrank.com/research
Market
Saint Petersburg
2020
Street Retail Market Saint Petersburg 2020 - 12.1% vacancy rate 10 to 30% decrease in rental rates
6
                                                                                                                  A new retailer
                                                                  IKEA first
                                                                                                                Eurospar entered
                                                                 small-format
                                                                                                             St. Petersburg market;
                                                              store was opened
                                                                                                               SPAR Middle Volga
                                                             at 23 Nevsky Ave in
                                                                                                              LLC is engaged in its                                On July 23, 2020,
                                                               St. Petersburg.
                                                                                                                  development.                                      the Governor of
                                                                                                                                                                St. Petersburg signed
                                                                                                                                                                    a Law to prohibit
                                                                                                                                                                   serving alcohol in
                                                                                                                                                                bars, pubs, and other
  KEY EVENTS                                                                                                                                                      establishments with
                                                                                                                                                                an area below 50 sq m
                                                                                                                The Italian luxury                               located in apartment
                                                                                                                 brand Brunello                                   buildings (effective
                                                                                                              Cucinelli moved from                                  January 1, 2021).
                                                               The government                                 B. Konyushennaya St
                                                              of St. Petersburg                                 to 113 Nevsky Ave
                                                               imposed stricter                                where they rented
                                                           coronavirus measures                                the space of about
                                                               for the New Year                                      500 sq m.
                                                                holiday period.
                                                             In accordance with
                                                              a new revision of
                                                             Governor’s Decree
                                                               No. 121, catering
                                                            outlets were closed
                                                             for guests between                                  Many businesses that used built-in commercial
                                                            December 30, 2020                                   premises have almost entirely stopped operating
                                                            and January 3, 2021.                                due to COVID-19 restrictions. Most of them were
                                                                                                                 fully closed on March 26, 2020. The restrictions
                                                                                                                   were somewhat eased in June and fully lifted
                                                                                                                                 on July 27, 2020.

Key metrics. Dynamics*

                                                              Average                                               Change
                                                           property size,              Vacancy rate            in vacancy rates                  Rotation                 Leading tenants’
                                                               sq m.                    (% of sq m)            2020/2019, p. p.                  rate**, %                     sector

Primary shopping corridors
                                                                  135.0                      12.7 ▲                       6.1                      12.4 ▲                    Public catering
in the central districts

Secondary shopping corridors
                                                                  105.5                      12.8 ▲                       6.5                      13.4 ▼                    Public catering
in the central districts

Primary shopping corridors
                                                                  86.0                       11.0 ▲                       3.9                      15.2 ▲                    Grocery stores
in bedroom communities

Secondary shopping corridors
                                                                  100.4                      8.5 ▼                       -0.2                      15.3 ▲                    Grocery stores
in bedroom communities

Pedestrian shopping corridors                                     96.5                       12.9 ▲                       6.9                      16.5 ▲                    Public catering

Pedestrian shopping corridors are streets with a pedestrian flow in the central districts of the city, such as M. Sadovaya St, 1st Sovetskaya St, Telezhny Lane, M. Konyushennaya St,
6-7-ya Liniya V.O.

Primary shopping corridors in the central districts are the main streets in these districts, as well as avenues featuring the highest car and pedestrian traffic and main business activities
concentrated around them, such as Nevsky Ave, Bolshoy Ave P. S., Kamennoostrovsky Ave, and Moskovsky Ave.

Secondary shopping corridors in the central districts are streets in these districts that are adjacent to the primary shopping arteries of the city that feature the highest car and
pedestrian traffic or are located in close vicinity to them. These include B. Morskaya St, B. Konyushennaya St, Rubinshteina St, Vladimirsky Ave, M. Morskaya St, Mayakovskogo St, Vosstaniya St,
Kirochnaya St, Zagorodny Ave, Gorokhovaya St, Sadovaya St, Sredny Ave V.O., Ligovsky Ave, Nekrasova St, Zhukovskogo St, Belinskogo St, Kazanskaya St.

Primary shopping corridors in bedroom communities are large non-central arterial streets that connect together several districts of the city. They feature the concentration of business
activities and/or a significant amount of residential development projects, both completed and in progress in the adjacent areas. Some of the examples include Leninsky Ave, Slavy Ave,
Komendantsky Ave, and Prosveshcheniya Ave.

Secondary shopping corridors in bedroom communities are streets in densely populated bedroom communities, which mainly have residential buildings, such as Entuziastov Ave/
Industrialny Ave, Baltiyskaya Zhemchuzhina quarters, Optikov St / Turistskaya St.

* As compared to 2019
** The calculation of rotation rates only takes into account premises occupied by tenants in compared the periods

Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021
Street Retail Market Saint Petersburg 2020 - 12.1% vacancy rate 10 to 30% decrease in rental rates
Supply

In 2020, the total area of street retail                               The most demanded premises are
spaces was 614.9 thousand sq m. This                                less than 100 sq m (63% of all spaces
represents 0.6% growth from the                                     available in the market). Properties
previous year on account of converting                              from 100 sq m to 200 sq m account for
some premises within the shopping                                   26% of the total supply. The remaining
                                                                                                               Anna Lapchenko
corridors in bedroom communities into                               11% are accounted for by larger spaces
                                                                                                               Head of Street Retail
commercial outlets. The downward                                    with an area of 500 sq m and more.
                                                                                                               Knight Frank St Petersburg
trend of the average area size of the                                  The breakdown of tenants continues
occupied spaces continued throughout                                to be led by three sectors: public
                                                                                                               In 2020, the street retail market has
the reporting year: 109.3 sq m in 2020                              catering (30%), groceries (13%), and
                                                                                                               proven to be flexible and resilient to
against 110.5 sq m in 2019. The downward                            clothing (9%). At the same time,
                                                                                                               external impacts, regardless of the full
trend of the amount of spaces rented                                the area occupied by catering and
                                                                                                               suspension of business in commercial
is driven by splitting larger properties                            clothing decreased by 9.5% and 7.6%
                                                                                                               premises in Q2 and partial restrictions
into several units or creating multi-                               respectively, compared to 2019 results.
                                                                                                               in Q4 2020. Due to a well-considered
format facilities where several tenants                             On the other hand, in terms of volume
                                                                                                               policy of rental charges pursued by
share a property with a single entrance.                            of spaces occupied, the food retail
                                                                                                               most landlords in the period of bans on
This trend is particularly noticeable in                            sector increased its presence by 5.6%
                                                                                                               business, the rotation rate remained
bedroom communities, in local streets                               on account of the expansion of chains
                                                                                                               within the range comparable with the
where the average property size dropped                             (such as VkusVill, Eurospar, Vkuster,
                                                                                                               levels registered in 2019, reaching
6.5% down to 100.4 sq m over the year.                              Magnit, etc.).
                                                                                                               13.8%.
                                                                                                                   2020 was marked with tough calls
                                                                                                               and challenges that not all market
    Top-10 profiles of tenants who opened stores in 2020
                                                                                                               players were able to handle. Thus, the
                      Public catering                                                     28%                  volume of spaces occupied by café and
                      Grocery stores                                   16%                                     restaurant tenants decreased by 9.5%,
                             Clothing                     9%                                                   banks and microfinance firms by 13.9%,
    Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics                         8%                                                   and telephones by 12.4%.
                  Office. Sales office              5%                                                             At the same time, internet retailers,
                        Beauty salon               4%                                                          such as OZON, CDEK and Wildberries,
     Banks. Microfinance Services              3%                                                              took advantage of the restrictions to
                   Household goods            2%                                                               launch an active expansion strategy
             Construction materials           2%                                                               and increased their market presence
                    Medical services         2%                                                                more than two times in 2020. Also,
                               Others                                         20%                              worth mentioning is a 1 percentage
                                                                                                               point increase in the share accounted
                                    0%                  10%             20%            30%               40%
                                                                                                               for by fashion retailers in total new
    Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021
                                                                                                               openings compared to 2019. It was
                                                                                                               possible on account of brands, such
                                                                                                               as Brunello Cucinelli, Bretling, and
                                                                                                               Canali in Nevsky Ave, Sandro, Maje, and
    Top-10 profiles of tenants who closed stores in 2020
                                                                                                               Paul&Shark in Bolshoy Ave P. S., which
                      Public catering                                                              34%         play a significant role for the market.
                      Grocery stores                          10%                                                  A decrease in rental rates was an
                             Clothing                     9%
                                                                                                               expected outcome of the restrictions
                        Beauty salon                 5%
                                                                                                               for the market. Shopping corridors
     Banks. Microfinance Services                   5%
                                                                                                               in bedroom communities were least
    Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics                   5%
                                                                                                               affected due to the generation of traffic
                   Household goods              3%
                                                                                                               by local residents, in particular, in
                              Jewelry          3%
                                                                                                               connection with shifting to remote work
           Services. Photo services            3%
                                                                                                               routines. The greatest decrease was
                                Shoes          3%
                                                                                                               registered in the city’s central locations
                               Others                                            22%
                                                                                                               because of the decreasing a numbers
                                    0%                  10%             20%            30%               40%   of office workers and a substantial drop
    Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021                                                          in the tourist traffic.
Street Retail Market Saint Petersburg 2020 - 12.1% vacancy rate 10 to 30% decrease in rental rates
Distribution the amount of premises by ranges of occupied areas

       number of occupied premises                     average area of premises

    total of 4,000                                                                                                                                                      2,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                         1,861
           3,500

           3,000                                                                                                                                                        1,500

           2,500

           2,000                                                                                                                                                        1,000

            1,500
                                                                                                                                666
            1,000                                                                                                                                                       500
                                                                                                        379
             500                                                              247
                                                        139
                 0             52                                                                                                                                       0
                      less than 100 sq m          100–200 sq m          201–300 sq m             301–500 sq m                501–1,000 sq m       over 1,000 sq m

   Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021

   Overall, the number of opened stores
was 25% less than the closed ones.                                  Top 10 profiles in the structure of tenants, by occupied area
Public catering operators traditionally
dominate in the breakdown of both                                                     Public catering                                                             30%
opened and closed tenants, accounting
                                                                                      Grocery stores                                 13%
for 28% and 34%, respectively.
                                                                                             Clothing                         9%
Some of the newly opened cafes and
                                                                      Banks. Microfinance Services                      6%
restaurants include Kazan Mangal,
                                                                                    Medical services               5%
Taproom, DoDo Pizza, Volkonsky in
Nevsky Ave, Hachapuri I vino, Kakha                                                     Beauty salon               4%

Bar in Bolshoy Ave P. S., Bar Darmadzhi                                             Household goods              4%

in Kamennoostrovsky Ave. The city’s                                 Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics                4%

main restaurant street Rubinshteina                                       Cosmetics and perfumery             2%
was not aside from the new openings,                                         Construction materials           2%
there was opened GUCHI (Del Mar
                                                                                               Others                                            21%
Group), Flor, Monkey bar, Noir, and
others.                                                                                             0%                  10%                20%              30%                 40%

   Due to the rapid development of                                  Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021

e-commerce during the pandemic,
delivery services of online stores, such
as OZON, CDEK and Wildberries, more
than doubled the leased spaces they                                 Rotation rates by shopping corridor in 2020
rent in built-in commercial premises
                                                                       Primary shopping corridors in the central districts
in 2020. It should be noted that pickup                                Secondary shopping corridors in the central districts
stores are developed not only in street                                Primary shopping corridors in bedroom communities
retail premises, but also use sub-leased                               Secondary shopping corridors in bedroom communities
spaces in drugstores and grocery stores.                               Pedestrian shopping corridors

During the unsettled epidemiological
situation, there was a rise in the
number of new pharmacies: in 2020,
the area of properties occupied by this
group of tenants increased by 15%.
                                                                          12.4%                   13.4%                      15.2%               15.3%              16.5%
   As for the decrease in the amount
of leased spaces, the banking and                                   Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021

microfinance segment reduced their
areas by 13.9% (5% of the total tenants’
share in St. Petersburg). In addition                               On the fashion segment, changes                                  For example, in B. Konyushennaya St,
to sex stores, the biggest drops                                 primarily involve rotation in premium                               the Agona rented some of the premises
were observed for children’s goods,                              locations, such as Bolshoy Ave P. S.,                               occupied by the Cashmere and Silk
jewelleries, and footwear stores.                                B. Konyushennaya St, and Nevsky Ave.                                boutique. The Brunello Cucinelli
Profiles of tenants with the largest and the smallest dynamics of changes in occupied space

                        Sex stores                                           -36.1%
                 Children's goods                                            -29.2%
                           Jewelry                                           -15.6%
                             Shoes                                           -15.3%
                           Tourism                                            -14.1%
   Banks. Microfinance Services                                              -13.9%
                       Telephones                                            -12.4%
        Services. Photo services                                              -11.7%
                   Public catering                                            -9.5%
                         Education                                             -9.1%
                           Clothing                                            -7.6%
                                                                                       9.3%                                  Pharmacy. Optics. Orthopedics
                                                                                       11.1%                                 Service center. Repairs
                                                                                       16.0%                                 Accessories
                                                                                       17.2%                                 Tea and coffee
                                                                                       18.8%                                 Automobile
                                                                                       19.2%                                 Tobacco
                                                                                       26.5%                                 Office. Sales office

                              -40%            -30%     -20%         -10%          0%           10%        20%          30%

   Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021

boutique moved from this shopping
corridor to Nevsky Ave. The Lorena
Antoniazzi and Herno stores were
closed, giving place to a Fabiana
Filippi boutique which moved from a
location in the same shopping corridor.
MINT clothing store was opened
in this location (which previously
rented premises in Liteyny Ave) also
as other brands such as Maje, Sandro,
and Paul&Shark. There is a trend of
high-profile and successful online
retailers going offline using rented
premises for opening show rooms.
Some of the examples include a new
accessories store by Millz Karta in                                   Canali Boutique, 141 Nevsky Ave. Transaction by Knight Frank St Petersburg
B. Konyushennaya St, To Be Blossom in
Liteyny Ave and Bolshoy Ave P. S.                             A street review shows that in some                   In the main shopping corridors
   Some tenants taking the advantage                     corridors the rotation rates grew slower               in the central districts, the vacancy
of the situation with vacant premises                    in 2020 than in the previous year. This                rates ranged from 9% (in the main
were able to move to locations better                    is in particular true about pedestrian                 part of Nevsky Ave) to 15% (in
suited for their business needs.                         and secondary shopping corridors in                    Kamennoostrovsky Ave) in the end
As at the end of the year 2020, the                      the central locations.                                 of 2020. Among the most popular
rotation rate was on average 13.8%,                           As at the end of 2020, the total                  locations in secondary streets in the
which is 1.5 percentage points higher                    vacant area of street retail properties                city centre, the lowest shares of vacancy
compared to 2019. It should be noted                     was 74.2 thousand sq m, which is an                    rates were seen in Rubinshteina St (5%),
that rotation in 2020 rates in the main                  80% increase from 2019. The share of                   as it still remains highly sought-after
shopping corridors in both central                       vacant spaces was on average 12.1%,                    by tenants, and M. Morskaya St (4%).
locations and bedroom communities                        showing a 5.3 percentage point increase                The highest vacancy rates are registered
higher than in the secondary                             compared to the previous year. Without                 in Nekrasova St (22%: with the major
shopping corridors in the respective                     taking into account those premises                     closures being Rostelecom, Volna café,
locations. The highest rotation was                      that were vacant in 2019, the area of                  Tili-Testo bakery, and Pietra bar) and in
observed in 6-7-ya Liniya V.O. (23.2%),                  properties vacated by tenants totalled                 Vladimirsky Ave (21%: the closed stores
Kamennoostrovsky Ave (19.7%), and                        about 50 thousand sq m or 8.7% of the                  include Togas, Samsonite, Thomas
B. Konyushennaya St (18.5%).                             total amount of street retail spaces.                  Munz, Green Box, and others).
Rates
                                               Ranges and dynamics of rental rates by shopping corridor
The restrictions imposed in the middle                                                                       Average range
of the year and during the New Year                                                                          of rental rates,
                                                   Street                                                     RUB per sq m
holidays caused significant losses to             category                           Streets                    per month                   Dynamics
businesses which were forced to stay
                                                       Pedestrian        M. Sadovaya (p)                      3,000–5,440                         ▼
idle or had their permitted working                     shopping
                                                        corridors        1-ya Sovetskaya (p)                   1,700–2,800                        ▼
hours (especially on the public catering
                                                                         Telezhny Lane (p)                    2,400–4,800                         ▼
segment) considerably curtailed. The
main decline in the basic rental rates                                   M. Konyushennaya (p)                 2,000–3,500                         ▼

from 10 to 30% was observed in mid-                                      6-7 Liniya (p)                       2,000–4,400                         ▼
2020. In the second half of the year,                    Primary         Leninsky Ave                          1,620–5,200                        ▼
only some owners adjusted further                       shopping
                                                        corridors        Slavy Ave                             1,170–2,500                        ▼
minor reduction in asking rates within               in bedroom
                                                    communities          Komendantsky Ave                      1,530–4,320                        ▼
a range of 2 to 5%.
                                                                         Prosveshcheniya Ave                   1,620–4,050                        ▼
   The smallest reduction in asking
rental rates was seen in bedroom                      Secondary          Entuziastov/Industrialny              1,530–3,150                        ▼
                                                        shopping
communities, in Rubinshteina St and                     corridors        Baltiyskaya Zhemchuzhina              1,350–2,700                        ▼
                                                     in bedroom
1-ya Sovetskaya St. However, if new                 communities          Optikov/Turistskaya                   1,170–2,700                        ▼
rules for obtaining alcohol licenses (an
                                                          Primary        Nevsky Ave                           5,250–11,000                        ▼
increased distance from a restaurant                    shopping
                                                         corridors       Bolshoy Ave P. S.                     1,600–3,840                        ▼
and children’s institutions/medical                 in the central
                                                          districts      Kamennoostrovsky Ave                  1,280–4,160                        ▼
facilities/educational establishments)
are introduced, rates for properties                                     Moskovsky Ave                        2,000–5,600                         ▼

in the main restaurant street of                       Secondary         B. Morskaya St                       2,240–4,960                         ▼
                                                        shopping
St. Petersburg may continue to go down                   corridors       B. Konyushennaya St                   2,800–7,200                        ▼
in the future.                                      in the central
                                                          districts      Rubinshteina St                      3,600–6,300                         ▼
   The largest decreased in asking
                                                                         Vladimirsky Ave                      2,400–3,600                         ▼
rates occurred in the city’s main
                                                                         M. Morskaya St                       2,000–4,000                         ▼
shopping corridor, Nevsky Ave, there
was a reduction from 30 to 33%. In                                       Mayakovskogo St                      2,000–3,200                         ▼

Sadovaya St, rates dropped within a                                      Vosstaniya St                        2,000–5,200                         ▼

range of 20 to 25%. As a rule, corridors                                 Kirochnaya St                         1,440–6,000                        ▼
with the highest rates are more
                                                                         Zagorodny Ave                         2,160–3,600                        ▼
sensitive to crises and higher rates
                                                                         Gorokhovaya St                        1,440–3,600                        ▼
are always subject to more significant
                                                                         Sadovaya St                           2,800–7,500                        ▼
drops.
                                                                         Sredny Ave V.O.                      2,000–6,400                         ▼

                                                                         Ligovsky Ave                          1,520–5,040                        ▼
Forecast
                                                                         Liteyny Ave                           1,520–4,800                        ▼

Until the end of 2021, the main market                                   Nekrasova St                          1,840–3,200                        ▼

trend will be for tenants to maintain                                    Zhukovskogo St                        1,760–3,200                        ▼

their existing positions and be flexible                                 Belinskogo St                        2,800–4,800                         ▼
in negotiations with owners in search                                    Kazanskaya St                         1,600–2,400                        ▼
for the best conditions. As at the end of
                                                                         Radishcheva St                        1,360–1,600                        ▼
2020, the catering sector accounted for
                                                                         Pestelya St                           1,360–2,000                        ▼
a 6 percentage point lower share of the
total number of openings as compared
                                                                             10–15%                16–20%           21–30%                   over 30%
to the same period of the previous year.
If restrictions resume even for a short        Source: Knight Frank St Petersburg Research, 2021                       * The rate is inclusive of VAT (20%)

period of time and a new decree on sale
of alcohol is enacted, the rotation will
continue on the segment of cafes and           Street retail premises in bedroom                            Now we can expect that the rates are
restaurants which accounted for 29%         communities of the city will be least                      likely to be reinstated until the end of
of the total number of premises that        affected due to the generation of traffic                  2021; however, it is unlikely that they will
changed tenants in 2020.                    by local residents.                                        return to the pre-crisis level of 2019.
STREET RETAIL
  DEPARTMENT

♦ Impeccable business reputation
♦ Business ethics and transparency in our activities
                                                                                                                more than

                                                                                                                700
♦ Long experience working on the market of St. Petersburg (since 2005)
♦ Leadership on the street retail segment supported by our knowledge
  of the market and compliance with international quality standards                                               offers

♦ Maximum involvement of our consultants in addressing problems
  of any level of complexity

  Our services                                                                                 RUB 350
  Representation of tenants and buyers:
                                                                                                million
                                                                                                in aggregate
▪ full-service transaction support                                                              transactions
▪ selection of premises; listing of available offers                                               in 2020

▪ retail real estate market research
▪ cost-effectiveness projections based on competitive analysis
▪ market forecasts and rental rate projections

  Representation of owners:
▪ full-service transaction support
▪ project marketing                                                                                25,000 sq m
▪ recommendations on pricing                                                                             of spaces sold
▪ search for and selection of buyers/tenants
▪ tenant mix optimization services
▪ property utilization assessment

                 Anna Lapchenko
                 Head of Street Retail
                 anna.lapchenko@ru.knightfrank.com

   Please contact us to learn more about our services or
   clarify any questions you may have:
   +7 (812) 363 22 22
   spb@ru.knightfrank.com

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