SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC

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SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC
Sustaining the
Momentum
Rwanda’s 2019/20
National Budget Bulletin
June 2019
SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC
In this bulletin…
1.          Our Commentary                                                          03
2.          The Economy                                                             07
3.          Tax Amendments                                                          18
4.          East Africa Highlights                                                  23

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights        June 2019
PwC                                                                                             2
SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC
Commentary

   “Transforming lives through industrialisation and job
   creation for shared prosperity” was the theme for the
   budgets of all East African Community countries -
   consistent with the previous year and the year before.
   This theme also aligns with Rwanda’s Vision 2050
   (ensuring high standards of living for all Rwandans) and
   the seven year Government program (2017 to
   2024)/National Strategy for Transformation 1 (which
   integrates far-sighted, long-range global and regional
   commitments that are geared towards transforming the
   well being of citizens). This is commendable as the
   budget talks to each of the three pillars of NST1.
   In his budget speech, the Minister for Finance highlighted
   numerous economic and social achievements,
   opportunities and well as challenges. Amongst the
   challenges highlighted were, higher than expected
   inflation from imported products following increased
   transport costs due to an increase in oil prices.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                 June 2019
                                                                                    Proprietary and confidential. Do not distribute.
PwC                                                                                                                                       3
SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC
Commentary

   The Minister remains confident on                                   Recently, there has been significant
   both the prospects for growth, and                                  debate in the media in relation to
   for revenue collection. On growth,                                  levels of Government debt; and
   the Budget assumes real GDP                                         more debate might be triggered
   growth of 7.8% for 2019/2020                                        given a 2019/20 target for an          Placeholder for image,
   which is consistent with the recent                                 increased budget deficit (3% of        chart or graph
   forecasts from the African                                          GDP) as compared to 2018/19.
   Development Bank and the IMF.
                                                                       Whilst acknowledging that
   The 2019/20 budget is FRW2,876.9                                    government debt has been
   bn) which is an 11% increase on                                     increasing, the Minister
   the 2018/19 revised budget                                          emphasized that the latest Debt
   (FRW2,585.2 bn). The domestic                                       Sustainability Analysis conducted in
   revenue (including domestic                                         April 2019 confirmed the
                                                                                                              Placeholder for image,
   financing) is assumed to contribute                                 sustainability of the debt in the
                                                                                                              chart or graph
   68% of the budget which is still                                    medium and long term. The focus
   consistent with 2018/19 domestic                                    should continue to be on having the
   revenue contribution to budget                                      debt ploughed in sectors that
   which is a good indication that in                                  generate productive growth and
   coming years the budget will soon                                   ensure its not only sustainable but
   be largely domestically funded.                                     there is sufficient cash for
                                                                       repayment when it falls due.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                  June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                       4
SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC
Commentary

                                                                                                           A number of measures were
                                                                                                           announced that sought to assist
                                                                                                           domestic local grown solutions,
                                                                                                           importantly, in an environment of tight
                                                                                                           liquidity and a constrained consumer
                                                                                                           pocket, for example the minister
                      Placeholder for image, chart or graph
                                                                                                           stayed customs taxes on selected
                                                                                                           goods to facilitate local manufacturers
                                                                                                           and also ease inflationary pressures
                                                                                                           on some of the basic goods.

                                                                                                           On the tax front, the Minister did not
                                                                                                           announce any major tax changes
                                                                                                           apart from reaffirming the
The Minister plans to spend about                                  This also seems to align with the       government’s commitment to roll out
                                                                                                           the Electronic Billing Machines (EBM
50% on recurrent expenditure and                                   ‘Asian tigers’ who undertook the
                                                                                                           for all) to all persons engaged in
40% on development expenditure. Is                                 journey before and embraced a
                                                                                                           commercial activities. This will require
this the right expenditure mix given the                           disciplined and prudent approach of     the affected businesses to reflect on
country’s growth ambition? This                                    borrowing for infrastructure projects   how best to ready their processes for
seems to be in line with the region’s                              while funding recurrent spending        compliance.
mix of recurrent and capital                                       through domestic resources
expenditure.
Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                           June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                5
SUSTAINING THE MOMENTUM - RWANDA'S 2019/20 NATIONAL BUDGET BULLETIN JUNE 2019 - PWC
Commentary

       Lastly we expected the Minister to                               For the taxman, the tax amnesty        …given the
       announce a tax amnesty as part of                                will provide additional revenue and
       the ongoing measures to improved                                 potentially widen the tax base in      progress Rwanda
       tax compliance.                                                  cases of previously unregistered
                                                                        taxpayers.                             has made in
       Such initiatives have proved
       successful in a number of other                                  This would certainly be an             improving tax
       jurisdictions in bringing reluctant                              opportunity to wipe the slate clean,
       taxpayers in from the cold –                                     and start afresh. We hope the          compliance a tax
       creating a win-win for the taxpayer,                             Minister can consider such a move
       to able the tax payer formalize and                              in the near future                     amnesty is worth
       correct past errors or omissions
       without a cost of penalties.                                                                            considering.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                          June 2019
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The Economy
Global

Global Economic Growth                                          Beyond 2020, global growth is set        GDP for World Economies
                                                                to settle at about 3.6%
According to the IMF’s April 2019
World Economic Outlook (WEO),                                   According to the IMF, growth
                                                                                                         6
global growth momentum slackened                                across emerging markets and
in 2018 to 3.6% from 3.8% in 2017,                              developing economies is projected        5                                                             4.8
                                                                                                                                                             4.5 4.4
showing greater than expected                                   to stabilize slightly below 5%. For
weaker performance in some                                      some regions, the outlook is             4      3.6         3.6
                                                                convoluted by a combination of                        3.3
economies, notably Europe and Asia.
                                                                structural bottlenecks, slower           3
The global economy is projected to                              advanced economy growth and, in                                      2.2
grow at an even a lower rate of 3.3%                                                                     2                                  1.8 1.7
                                                                some cases, high debt and tighter
in 2019 compared to previous years.                             financial conditions. These factors,
Global growth will start to level off in                        alongside subdued commodity              1
the second half of 2019 to achieve                              prices and civil strife or conflict in
                                                                                                         0
3.6% in 2020 based on on-going                                  some cases, contribute to                    Global Economy              Advanced        Emerging Markets
build- up of policy stimulus in China,                          unresponsive medium-term                                                 Economies        and Developing
recent improvement in global financial                          prospects for Latin America; the                                                            Economies
market and, stabilization of conditions                         Middle East, North Africa, and                                    2018     2019       2020
and declining pressures on growth in                            Pakistan region; and parts of Sub-
the euro area and emerging markets.                             Saharan Africa
                                                                                                         Source: IMF 2019 World Economic Outlook

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                                  June 2019
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The Economy
Africa

Sub Saharan Africa (SSA)                                           Some 21 countries are expected to
                                                                                                           2019 GDP forecast for selected Sub-Saharan
                                                                   sustain growth at 5% or more in
                                                                                                           African Economies
Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) economic                                2019. The remaining countries,
recovery is set to continue, but along two                         mostly other resource-dependent
tracks, after the region faced a decline in                        economies, including the largest -
global commodities price between 2015                              Nigeria and South Africa - are set to
and 2016, tighter financial conditions and                         face slow growth in the near-term.                                                   Ethiopia
a strong US dollar in 2018.                                                                                                                               7%
                                                                   According to the IMF, addressing
GDP growth in SSA was 3% in 2018                                   these growing challenges within
compared to 2.9% in 2017 and is set to                             these countries requires building
pick up to 3.5% in 2019 and stabilize at                           fiscal space and enhancing                Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                           Kenya
slightly below 4% over the medium term.                            resilience to shocks by stepping up        2.7%
                                                                                                                                                           6.2%
This is projected on diminished policy                             actions to mobilize revenues,                         Angola
                                                                                                                                                        Rwanda
                                                                                                                                                         8.6%
uncertainty and improved investment in                             alongside policies to boost                            2.2%
large economies together with continued                            productivity and private investment.
robust growth in non-resource intensive
countries.

                                                                                                                       South Africa
                                                                                                                          1.8%

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                June 2019
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The Economy
East Africa Community (EAC)

According to the African Development                             GDP growth by region 2017 to 2020                 significantly higher than the
Bank’s 2019 African Economic                                                                                       continental average.
                                                                               Africa           North Africa
Outlook, East Africa is the fastest
                                                                               West Africa      Central Africa
growing region of the continent with a                                                                             The Continental Free Trade Area
robust GDP forecast of 5.9% from an                                            East Africa      Southern Africa    (CFTA), launched in Kigali in March
estimated 5.7% in 2018. However,                                 7                                                 2018, is the latest regional integration
the regional average is disguised by                             6                                                 initiative. The tripartite free trade area
                                                                 5
substantial variation across countries.                                                                            involving COMESA, EAC, and the
                                                                 4
                                                                 3                                                 Southern African Development
The countries with the highest                                   2                                                 Community was an important
economic growth are Rwanda,                                      1                                                 motivation for the CFTA, especially in
Tanzania and Kenya. The region                                   0                                                 East and Southern Africa.
                                                                         2017           2018    2019        2020
however continues to face various                                                              (EST)       (EST)
downside risks that could undermine                             Source: Africa development bank- East Africa       These initiatives are believed to be
                                                                Economic Outlook
economic growth and development                                                                                    advancing regional integration in East
prospects. Major risks are                                           Further, international trade on the           Africa and will accelerate inter-
agriculture’s susceptibility to the                                  continent remains low averaging at            regional trade.
impulses of nature, heavy reliance on                                about 14.5% and roughly unchanged
primary commodity exports, rising oil                                over the past five years. Intra-EAC
prices, persistent current account                                   trade is the highest among all
deficits and related increases in                                    regional economic communities in
external indebtedness.                                               Africa - above 20% of exports and

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                     June 2019
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The Economy
Ease of doing business in the EAC

  Ease of doing business score                                                                                       EAC countries have continued to
                                                                                                                     push the frontiers of reforms more
 REGIONAL AVERAGE (RANK 119)                                                         56.94
                                                                                                                     broadly. The World Bank’s 2019
                                                                                                                     Doing Business report showed the
          SOUTH SUDAN (RANK 185)                                   35.34                                             progress made by sub-Saharan
                                                                                                                     Africa among reforming economies.
                 BURUNDI (RANK 168)                                          47.41
                                                                                                                     The 2019 report showed that the
                 TANZANIA (RANK144)                                                 53.63                            EAC has continued to excel,
                                                                                                                     accounting for one-third of all
                  UGANDA (RANK 127)                                                   57.06
                                                                                                                     business regulatory reforms. In fact,
                      KENYA (RANK 61)                                                         70.31
                                                                                                                     Rwanda and Kenya led the pack of
                                                                                                                     reformers.
                   RWANDA (RANK 29)                                                                77.88
                                                                                                                     Despite these advancements
                                               0      10      20      30      40       50     60      70   80   90   though, several EAC countries
  Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2019
                                                                                                                     continue to lag behind.

  Note: An economy’s ease of doing business score is reflected on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the
  lowest and 100 represents the best performance. The ease of doing business ranking ranges from 1 to 190.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                  June 2019
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The Economy
Rwanda’s Economic Performance

                                                                                         Industry: The industry sector          Services: The services sector
  Key Economic Indicators                                                                 grew by 10%, much higher                grew by 9% mainly driven by
                                                   FY18/19          (est)FY19/20          than its 5 years’ average and           a recovery in wholesale and
 GDP growth                                            8.6%                   7.8%        accounted for 16% of the total          retail trade and continuing
 Total budget in FRW                                 FRW         FRW 2,876.9bn
                                                                                          GDP. Growth in industry was             expansion of the air transport
                                                 2,585.2bn
 Domestic Revenue % of GDP                            16%                    16.2%        boosted particularly by the             segment.
 Expenditure % of GDP                                28.5%                     28%        recovery in the construction
 Headline Inflation                                      1.1       Est below 5%           sector, which grew by 14%.             Agriculture: The agriculture
 Public Debt in USD                              USD41bn                            ?                                             sector grew by 6% following
 Domestic borrowing % of GDP                          0.7%                   1.7%         The recovery in beverages &             favorable weather conditions
 Fiscal Deficit % of GDP (incl.                      -4.5%                  -6.3%         tobacco and continuing good             and various government
 grants)
                                                                                          performance in textile/                 measures to increase food
GDP Growth and its drivers                                                                clothing’s production also              and other agricultural
                                                                                          contributed to the positive             production.
Rwanda’s economy is estimated to grow by 8.6%
                                                                                          growth of industry despite the
by the end of the fiscal year FY18/19 which is
                                                                                          poor performance of mining,
1.4% above the government’s initial projected
target of 7.2%. Industry and services are the                                             especially in the last quarter of
main contributors to this GDP growth.                                                     2018.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                      June 2019
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The Economy
Rwanda’s Economic Performance

                                                                                                             5.5%
Inflation                                                          Commercial bank lending and
Rwanda’s annual headline inflation                                 deposit rates
for FY18/19 is projected to be below
the 5% medium term inflation                                       In FY18/19, commercial bank interest
benchmark. As rising inflation is                                  rates remained broadly stable and         The main drivers of lending rates in
generally associated with currency                                 have been converging towards the          Rwanda are operational costs,
depreciation and exchange rate                                     CBR as a result of improved liquidity     provisioning for loan losses, the cost
instability, the decline in headline                               management. Commercial Banks’             of holding statutory reserves and the
inflation is a result of ease in                                   lending rates and deposit rates           National Bank Rate, currently at
exchange rate pressures and the                                    slightly reduced, respectively standing   5.5%.
slowdown in annual food crops
                                                                   at 16.96% (lending rates) and 7.51%
inflation due to increased agricultural
                                                                   (deposit rates) in 2018, from 17.17%
production during the year. The
stability of FRW contributed to ease                               (lending rates) and 7.72% recorded in
the imported inflation despite the                                 2017 (deposit rates).
increase recorded in transport costs.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                             June 2019
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The Economy
Rwanda’s Economic Performance

                                                                                    The main reason for this          Domestic debt is mainly
                                                                                    increase in the additional        composed of government
                                                                                    external debt (3.9% of GDP),      securities especially Treasury
                                                                                    which was meant to scale up       bills together with Treasury
                                                                                    public investment projects that   bonds (more than 75 percent
                                                                                    support trade and tourism.        of total public domestic debt at
                                                                                                                      end FY2018/19).
                                                                                    The majority of Rwanda’s debt
                                                                                    is external (83.3%) and           The country’s debt strategy is
                                                                                    predominantly composed of         to maximize concessional
                                                                                    concessional loans (projected     borrowing while restricting
                                                                                    to be at 61.6% of the total       commercial loans to the
Public debt stock
                                                                                    portfolio at June 2019) mostly    financing of infrastructure and
Rwanda’s external present value (PV) of debt-to-                                    provided by multilateral          self - financing projects.
GDP stood at 32.9% as of end 2018, an increase                                      institutions.
of 5.2% from 27.7% PV of Debt to GDP as of end
2017.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                            June 2019
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The Economy-Fiscal Performance
 Budget for FY19/20: Resource Envelope
                                                                             Budgeted Domestic revenues for 19/20
Domestic Revenue         Loans      Grants      Domestic Financing

                                                                        Non-tax revenue
                              8%
                                                                              11%
                       14%                                           Taxes on                                       The tax revenue of FRW1.535.8bn is
                                                                   international
                                                                       trade                                        expected to come from, among
                       18%               60%                            7%
                                                                                                  Direct taxes
                                                                                                                    others, the continuing economic
                                                                                                      38%           growth momentum of 7.8% projected
                                                                                       Indirect                     for the FY19/20, and increase in the
                                                                                        taxes
                                                                                         44%                        taxable base that will be supported by
   The Government plans to increase                                                                                 new tax administrative measures and
   spending by 11% in the 2019/20                                                                                   policies.
   fiscal year to FRW2,876bn. Donors                               Total domestic revenue collections
   will fund 14% of the budget (a 2%                               have been projected to reach FRW                 As regards economic growth,
   decrease in donor funding) with the                             1,726.2bn in the fiscal year 2019/20.            • the agriculture sector is expected
   rest coming from domestic revenue                               This is 9% above the estimated figure              to get good performance in food
   and debt. The total resources                                   of FRW1,571.4bn to be achieved in                  and export of crops.
   projected is made up of:                                        the fiscal year 2018/19 by 9%.                   • The industry is expected to be
   • FRW 1,726bn of domestic tax                                                                                      boosted by good performance in
         and non-tax revenues (60%);                               Tax revenue will contribute 89%                    mining and construction activities
   • external grants and loans of                                  (FRW1,535.8bn of the total domestic              • the services sector is likely to
         FRW 409.8bn (14%) and FRW                                 revenue [i.e. Indirect taxes (44%),                maintain it performance at the rate
         497bn (17%), respectively and                             Direct taxes (38%) and taxes on                    of 8% .
   • a total domestic financing of                                 international trade (7%)], and the
         the budget deficit of FRW                                 balance of 11% will be contributed by
         237bn (8%)..                                              non-tax revenue.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                   June 2019
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The Economy-Government Spending
                                                                                                              With regard to the domestically
                                                          2018/19             2019/20
                                                                                                              financed portion, the allocated amount
                                                          Billion             Billion         %change from
                                                                                                              is to allow the implementation of
                                                                                              previous year
                                                                                                              priority projects that will increase
  Recurrent Budget                                               1,310              1,424.5              9%   access to electricity, water and
  Development Budget                                             1,041              1,152.1             11%   sanitation as well as education and
  Net Lending                                                      190                244.1             28%   health.

                                                                                                                00%
  Arrears payments                                                27.2                   30             10%   In the case of the foreign financed
  Accumulation of Deposits                                       16.96                 25.5             50%   portion, the allocated amount is to
Total expenditure projected in the                                 including creation of new structures in    cover projects in the energy, roads and
fiscal year 2019/20 is mainly made up                              the public sector.                         agriculture sectors.
of FRW 1,424.5bn as recurrent
expenditure, FRW 1,152.1bn as                                      Specifically, the increase in the          Net Lending
                                                                   allocated amount for wages will cater      Outlays under net lending in the fiscal
capital/development spending and
FRW 244.1bn as net lending outlays.                                for restructuring of education and         year 2019/20 have increased by 28%
                                                                   health sector salaries including new       from the previous year’s budget
Recurrent expenditure                                              recruitments as well as increases in       allocation. The increase in the
The allocated amount of FRW                                                                                   allocated amount is mainly for two
                                                                   allowances of the security agencies.
1,424.5bn in fiscal year 2019/20 is                                                                           significant spending areas:
9% higher than the allocated amount                                Capital expenditure                        i. funds for the recapitalization of
in the fiscal year 2018/19.                                        Total capital spending in the fiscal            BRD – which is going to be done
                                                                   year 2019/20 has been estimated at              over a three year period and
The increase in recurrent expenditure
                                                                   FRW 1,152.1bn. This figure is made         ii. funds to Rwandair to support its
is mainly driven by increased
                                                                   up of FRW 694bn of domestically                 expansion strategy
allocations for both wage and non-
                                                                   financed expenditure and                   BRD has been recapitalized to
wage related items arising from on-
                                                                   FRW458.2bn of foreign financed             promote accelerated private sector
going restructuring exercises
                                                                   expenditure.                               growth.
Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                             June 2019
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The Economy-Sector Allocation as per NST1
Resource allocation to NST1                                        As priority area one under the social            quality education ranging from
Pillars                                                            transformation pillar of the NST1,               construction of classrooms
                                                                   Education has taken the second                   countrywide, to in-house text books
The National Strategy for                                          biggest share of the pie. Priorities             production and distribution and
Transformation (NST1) is a                                         under the education sector are to                promotion of STEM subjects in
government strategy developed as an                                focus on improvement of access to                primary and secondly schools.
implementation instrument for the
remainder of Vision 2020 and the first
four years of the Vision 2050. The
budget allocation to the three NST1                                         1,800
pillars is as follows.                                                      1,600            57%

                                                                            1,400
Sector allocation to NST1
                                                                            1,200
Pillars                                                                     1,000
Once again, Public Finance                                                    800            1,637                    27%
Management (PFM) has taken the                                                600
                                                                                                                                            16%
biggest piece of the pie (it has also                                         400                                     781
had the third largest increase in                                             200                                                           457
budget allocation when compared to                                              -
                                                                                    Economic Transformation   Social Transformation   Transformational
the FY18/19) as the Government                                                                                                          Governance
continues to ensure that both the
external debt and project loans are
within acceptable limits.
Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                        June 2019
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The Economy-Sector Allocation as per NST1
                                                                                                                                                  % change from
Water and Sanitation had the largest                             Sectors as per NST1                      FY18/19*    % share   FY19/20 % share         FY18/19
increase in the budget allocation to                                                                       FRW'bn               FRW‘bn
the tune of 47% when compared to                                 Public Finance Management (PFM)               657       27%        855    30%               30%
                                                                 Education                                     273       11%        311    11%               14%
the current year. The increase is to                             Justice, Reconciliation, Law and Order        233       10%        268     9%               15%
enable:                                                          Transport                                     238       10%        264     9%               11%
• The finalisation of the construction                           Health                                        204        8%        234     8%               15%
                                                                 Governance and Decentralization               142        6%        165     6%               16%
   of two water treatment plants in                              Engergy                                       144        6%        161     6%               12%
   Kanzenze (Bugesera) and Gihira                                Private sector Development                    123        5%        137     5%               11%
                                                                 Agriculture                                   123        5%        128     4%                4%
   (Rubavu).
                                                                 Social Proctection                            104        4%        112     4%                8%
• Connecting 109 productive use                                  Water and Sanitation                           49        2%         72     3%               47%
   areas to water including industrial                           Urbanization and Rural Settlement              51        2%         57     2%               12%
                                                                 Environment and Natural Resources              39        2%         53     2%               36%
   parks, commercial centres, schools
                                                                 Information Communication Technology           30        1%         32     1%                7%
   and Health Centres.                                           Sports and Culture                             19        1%         20     1%                5%
• Undertake construction of Kigali                               Financial Sector Development                    6        0%          6     0%                0%
                                                                 Total Original resource envelope            2,435                2,876                      18%
   Centralized Sewerage System                                   Revised                                     2,585                2,876                      11%
   phase 1.
                                                                   for the economy. Key interventions to               of new forest planted and 420 has of
Environment and Natural Resources
                                                                   be implemented in 2019/2020                         forest maintained;
had the second largest increase in
                                                                   include:                                          • Urban Forestry for Sustainable City
budget allocation to the tune of 36%
                                                                                                                       through beatification, landscaping
when compared to the current year.                                 • Rehabilitation of urban wetlands in
                                                                                                                       and greening in urban areas;
The increase is towards Rwanda’s                                     Kigali City;
                                                                                                                     • Increase the area covered by forests
continued effort to preserve Natural                               • Re-afforestation and rehabilitation
                                                                                                                       focusing on agroforestry; and
resources and the environment in                                     of the degraded area of Jali, Mount
                                                                                                                     • Implementation of flood control
order to promote the green economy,                                  Kigali and Rebero with 30 ha
                                                                                                                       measures.
which presents multiple opportunities
Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                     June 2019
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Tax Amendments
Tax reforms during FY18/19
During FY18/19, a number of tax                                         progress in handling VAT refunds,     investments and also reduce tax
administrative measures have been                                       a number of taxpayers still have      compliance costs.
implemented. These include:                                             their VAT refund claims rejected.
                                                                                                              • Taxpayers can now carry forward
                                                                        This is mainly because of internal
• Tax exempt entities (NGOs,                                                                                    tax losses for a period of more
                                                                        system configurations that are
    Schools, Churches etc.) are now                                                                             than 5 years – on receiving
                                                                        geared toward improving efficiency      approval from the Commissioner
    required to submit their financial
                                                                        within the tax administration, but      General. This amendment to the
    statements using the online e-tax
                                                                        are becoming costly to taxpayers.       law is commendable as it will go a
    platform. We however note that
                                                                        Taxpayers would want to see             long way in incentivising capital
    generally taxpayers continue to
                                                                        automation that decreases their tax     intensive businesses to claw back
    experience frequent system
                                                                        compliance costs and not                their investments without the 5
    outages which could be caused by
                                                                        increasing it. The RRA needs to         year restriction.
    a lot of traffic on the platform
                                                                        find ways of minimising the tax
    during filing deadlines. The RRA                                                                          • The threshold to have audited and
                                                                        cost to taxpayers as they continue
    needs to quickly resolve these                                                                              certified financial statements was
                                                                        to roll-out these much needed
    issues.                                                                                                     increased from Rwf400m to
                                                                        systems that are meant to reduce        Rwf600m. This will reduce the tax
• VAT claims are now refunded                                           the time and cost of compliance.        compliance cost for a majority of
    within 30 to 90 days because of the                                                                         small and medium sized
                                                                   During the year the minister also
    enhanced capabilities of the EBM                                                                            businesses because they would no
                                                                   issued two key ministerial orders that
    system and the tax filing portal.                                                                           longer be required to engage
                                                                   are meant to facilitate taxpayers’
    This is really commendable.                                                                                 auditors to certify their financial
    However, despite this major                                                                                 statements before filing them.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                            June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                18
Tax Amendments
Proposed Tax Changes

The Minister did not propose any                                   •   Revision of the consumption tax     The draft law on tax procedures
major tax changes apart from re-                                       law aimed at increasing tax         provides for a reduction in fines and

                                                                                                               EBM
confirming that the increase in tax                                    collection but at the same time     penalties for non-payment of taxes as
collection will be mainly supported by                                 discouraging consumption of some    follows;
continued improvement in tax                                           unhealthy products.
administrative measures and policies.
                                                                                                           •   10% if the tax due is paid within 30
                                                                   As regards the new law on tax               days following the due date.
Some of the measures to be
                                                                   procedures, the draft law – which is
undertaken include:
• Revision of the law on tax
    procedures requiring every person
    carrying out commercial activities
    to use the new “EBM for all”
                                                                   yet to be gazetted - introduces a
                                                                   number of remarkable tax
                                                                   administrative measures.
                                                                   Fines, penalties and interest
                                                                                                           •

                                                                                                           •   for
                                                                                                               20% if the tax due is paid after 30
                                                                                                               days but before 60 days - following
                                                                                                               the due date.
                                                                                                               50% if the tax due is paid after 60
                                                                                                               days following the due date.

                                                                                                               all
                                                                   payments
    expanding coverage to non-VAT                                                                          The draft law also recommends that
    registered persons. It is not clear                            Currently, Rwanda has one of the        fines for non-payment and non-
    whether the “EBM for all” will also                            most punitive tax penalty regimes in    declaration would not apply on a
    be rolled out to businesses with                               the region. Tax penalties for non-tax   taxpayer who is not registered with
    voluminous transactions such as                                declaration/under-declaration and non   the RRA, but makes a self-disclosure.
    Banks.                                                         payment of taxes can go as high as      These revisions in the penalty regime
                                                                   70%.                                    are welcome as they will ease the tax
                                                                                                           burden taxpayers are currently facing.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                            June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                19
Tax Amendments
Proposed Tax Changes

• Payment in instalments: Currently taxpayers - with
    justified reasons – are allowed to pay their tax liabilities
    over a period of 12 months. The draft law now gives
    mandate to the Commissioner General to extend this
    period by another period not exceeding 24 months. This
    is also a welcome measure as it will go a long way to                                          Placeholder for image,
    ease the cash flow pressures on businesses.                                                    chart or graph
• Time limit for recovery of taxes: The draft law now
    provides for a time limit of 10 years - from the date the
    taxpayer received the notice of assessment – beyond
    which the tax authority cannot recover the taxes                                • Liability of shareholders: The current law on tax
    assessed.                                                                         procedures provides that shareholders who become
                                                                                      involved in the management of the company and/or
• Ring-fencing of mining income and expenses: A                                       misuse company’s funds are liable for any tax liability if
    mining company that exploits more than one concession                             they led to the company’s inability to meet its tax
    area will be required to declare and pay taxes separately                         obligations. A competent court would determine the
    on each concession. Losses incurred with respect to                               liability of the shareholder. However, the draft law now
    one mining concession cannot be used by another                                   provides that in case the property of a company is not
    concession belonging to the same company.                                         separated from that of a shareholder or of his/her
                                                                                      relative to the second degree, they are jointly liable for
                                                                                      any tax liabilities incurred by the company without a
                                                                                      court decision.
Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                          June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                20
Tax Amendments
Proposed Tax Changes

Liability of shareholders                                          Stayed customs                         Transportation sector
                                                                                                          • Import duty rate of 0% instead of
We find that this would be a                                       The minister has stayed customs          10% or 25% for road tractors for
challenging provision to implement                                 taxes on selected goods for another      semi trailers, motor vehicles for
and we recommend that the court                                    year.                                    transport of goods with gross
decision in such matters should still                                                                       weight exceeding 20 tons and
be maintained.                                                     The minister’s decision to stay the      buses for transportation of 50
                                                                   increase of import duty on these         persons and above.
The Minister also noted that fiscal                                selected items is welcome as it will   • Import duty of 10% instead of 25%
incentives will continue be extended                               not only facilitate the “Made in         for motor vehicles for transport of
to some strategic sectors in a bid to                              Rwanda” initiative, but it will also     goods with gross weight exceeding
support “Made in Rwanda” initiatives                               address the issue of imported            5 tons but not exceeding 20 tons.
and the development of a cashless                                  inflations on the selected basic
economy.                                                           goods.                                 • Import duty of 10% instead of 25%
                                                                                                            on buses for transportation of more
                                                                                                            than 25 persons.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                        June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                             21
Tax Amendments
Proposed Tax Changes

Promotion of “Made in                                              Basic goods                              Information Technology
Rwanda” initiative
                                                                   • Rice will continue to be taxed at      • Telecommunication equipment will
                                                                       the rate of 45% or US$ 345/MT          continue to attract import duty at a
• All capital machinery used in the                                    instead of 75% or US$ 345/MT.          rate of 0% instead of 25%.
      textile and leather industry will
      continue attracting import duty of                           • Sugar will continue to be taxed at a   Financial Sector
      0% instead of 25%.                                               rate of 25% instead of 100% or
                                                                                                            • As support towards a cashless
                                                                       US$ 460/MT whichever is higher.
• Certain raw materials used in                                                                               economy, electronic transaction
                                                                                                              devices (smart cards, ATM cards,
    industry will continue to be taxed at                          • Goods imported for use by Armed
    a rate of 0% instead of 10% or                                                                            Point of Sale cards and their
                                                                       Forces Shop (AFOS) will continue
    25%.                                                                                                      operating machines) will continue
                                                                       to attract duty at 0% instead of
                                                                                                              to attract import duty at 0% instead
                                                                       10% and 25%.
• Import duty rates of US$ 4/Kg for                                                                           of 25%.
    second hand clothes and US $5/kg
    for second hand shoes.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                           June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                               22
East Africa highlights
Kenya
Summary of growth in 2019                                             Economic drivers in 2018               The identified key initiatives to achieve
Kenya registered economic growth of                                   • Increased agro-processing            the agenda and accelerate economic
6.3% in 2018 compared to 4.9% in 2017.                                    activities during the year;        growth are:
This growth is the highest recorded for
                                                                      • Favorable weather conditions for     • Creating an enabling environment for
the past 8 years.
                                                                          both crops and livestock             business;
The growth was anchored on relatively                                     production due to long rains in    • Prudent and efficient spending;
stable macroeconomics and was                                             2018; and
attributable to increased agricultural                                                                       • Mobilization of domestic resources to
production, accelerated manufacturing
                                                                      • Stable political environment,          fund priority projects/programmes;
                                                                          withdrawal of travel advisories,
activities, sustained growth in                                                                              • Stabilizing and reducing debt; and
                                                                          improved security and investor
transportation and vibrant service sector
activities.
                                                                          confidence in the country.         • Implementing reforms that will
                                                                                                               enhance efficiency and competitive
Inflation remained low at 4.8% in 2018
compared to 8% in 2017 majorly as a                                   Government priorities for the
result of considerable decline in prices of                           year
food.
                                          The government plans to prioritize
Growth of economy is projected to remain
                                          its spending towards laying the
strong in 2019 at almost same level as in
                                          foundation for the Big Four agenda.
2018, with 7% growth expected over the
medium term.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                             June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                 23
East Africa highlights
Kenya
Key Tax Highlights                                                     VAT                                     Customs
Income Tax                                                         • Adjustment of the VAT refund            • Retention of the import duty rate on
                                                                       formula to ensure that inputs           iron and steel products at 35% with
• Increase of Capital Gains Tax rate                                   relating to zero-rated supplies are     the corresponding specific duty
    from 5% to 12.5%;                                                  factored in the refund process;         rate for the products produced in
• Exemption of CGT on gains arising                                • Reduction of the Withholding VAT          Kenya; and
    from group re-organizations;                                       rate from 6% to 2%;                   • Reduction of import duty on raw
• Expansion of the scope of services                               • Introduction of VAT exemption for         timber from 10% to 0%.
    attracting withholding taxes other                                 locally manufactured motherboards
    than management and professional                                                                           Excise Duty
                                                                       and all inputs used in their
    fees;                                                              manufacture;                          • Introduction of Excise duty on
• Reduced corporate tax rate to 15%                                • VAT exemption on all services             betting activities at a rate of 10% of
    in the first five years for companies                                                                      the staked amount;
                                                                       offered to plastic recycling plants
    engaged in recycling plastics;                                     and supply of machinery and           • Reduction of the excise duty rate
• Tax exemption on the income                                          equipment used in the construction      on motor vehicles which are purely
    earned from housing funds; and                                     of the plants.                          electric from 20% to 10%; and

• Tax exemption on income earned                                                                             • Increase of excise duty on tobacco
    by individuals under the Ajira                                                                             products, wines and spirits by 15%.
    Digital program.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                             June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                 24
East Africa highlights
Uganda
Summary of growth in 2019                                            Economic drivers, 2019                   VAT

The economy recovered in 2018,                                       The government has identified the        • Introduction of 6% withholding VAT;
growing by 6%. The economy is                                        economic drivers to include:               and
projected to grow by 6.1% in 2019 and                                • Peace, security, good governance       • VAT Exemption on agro-processing,
continues to bounce from the low                                         and an efficient judicial system;       rice mills and agricultural sprayers.
growth of 3.9% in 2017, mainly driven                                                                         Income tax
by growth across all sectors.                                        • Reliable, efficient and affordable
                                                                         electronic supply;                   • Exemption of income derived from
Inflation remained stable in 2018 at                                                                            leasing or letting facilities in industrial
3.4%, due to the increased food                                      • Water transport and communications       parks for 10 years;
supplies in the markets, relatively stable                               infrastructure;
                                                                                                              • Reduced withholding tax rate on long
exchange rate and effective co –                                     • A healthy, well educated and skilled     term bonds from 20% to 10%;
ordination of monetary and fiscal                                        workforce; and                       Stamp duty
policies.
                                                                     • An effective government machinery.     • Proposed amendment to provide for
Government priorities                                                                                           a uniform stamp duty payable on
                                                                     Key tax highlights                         bank guarantees, insurance
• Expanding the industrial base of the                                                                          performance bonds, indemnity bond
    economy;                                                         Excise Duty                                etc.
• Exploiting Natural Resource                                        • Amendment to provide registration of   Customs duty
    Endowments with Environmental                                        manufacturers, importers and         • Increase in import tariffs on products
    Protection in mind; and                                              providers of excisable goods and       which are locally manufactured
• Providing affordable financing for                                     services.
    production and business.

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                                June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                    25
East Africa highlights
Tanzania
Summary of growth                                                  Government priorities                     Revenue policies
Tanzania recorded real GDP growth                                  The priority for 2018/19 will be on       The Government is committed to
rate in 2018 of 7.0% compared to                                   flagship infrastructure projects and in   increasing and strengthening
6.8% in 2017. The GDP growth was                                   creating a conducive environment for      domestic revenue collections by
driven by increased investment                                     investment and business by                pursuing the following policies:
especially in infrastructure, stable                               implementing the Blueprint for
supply of electricity, improvement in                              Regulatory Reforms to improve the         • Increase efficiency in
transport services and favourable                                  business environment.                       administration and collection of
weather conditions that resulted in an                                                                         domestic revenue;
                                                                   The focus will be on the following
increased food harvest and other                                   priority areas:                           • Widen the tax base through
crops.                                                                                                         identification and registration of
                                                                   •   Agriculture:                            new tax payers and formalization
                                                                   •   Industries:                             of the informal sector;
                                                                   •   Livestock and fisheries:              • Strengthen capacity for monitoring
                                                                                                               and controlling of transfer pricing;
                                                                   •   Economic growth and human
                                                                       development                           • Enhance administration of tax
                                                                                                               exemptions; and
                                                                   • Improvement of enabling business
                                                                       environment and investment            • Improve efficiency in domestic
                                                                       climate                                 revenue collection;

Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                             June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                   26
East Africa highlights
Tanzania tax highlights
Value added tax                                                    • Changes in presumptive tax rates      Customs
                                                                       and now applies to taxpayers with
Exemptions proposed include:
                                                                       annual turnover up to TZS 100m.
                                                                                                           • To protect local industries, duties
• Imported refrigeration boxes, grain                                                                        have been increased on the
    drying equipment, aircraft                                                                               following imported products:
                                                                   Withholding tax                           roasted coffee, flat-rolled products
    lubricants by domestic operators,
    National Air Force and Airlines                                Proposed changes includes:                of iron or non-alloy steel ,flat-rolled
                                                                                                             products of iron or non-alloy steels,
    recognised under bilateral air                                 • Exemptions on fees charged to           reinforcement bars and hollow
    service agreement.                                                 Government on loans received          profiles, horticultural products and
Zero rating proposed:                                                  from non residential banks and        monofilament.
                                                                       other international financial
• Supply of electricity from Tanzania                                  institutions.                       • Duties have been
    mainland to Zanzibar                                                                                     decreased/remitted on the
Exemptions abolished: Sanitary pads                                                                          following products: baby diapers,
                                                                   Excise duty                               equipment and appurtenant used
Income tax                                                         Proposed impositions                      for polishing and heat treatment of
• Reduction of the CIT rate for new                                • 10% on locally made artificial hair
                                                                                                             gemstones, papers used as raw
    investors in the production of                                                                           materials for manufacturing of
                                                                       and 25% on imported ones.             packaging materials for export of
    sanitary pads from 30% to 25%.
                                                                   • 10% on pipes and plastics               horticulture products, agricultural
• Increase in minimum turnover                                         materials                             seeds packaging materials and
    required for a taxpayer to prepare
                                                                                                             aluminium alloys used as raw
    audited financial statements to TZS                            • Exemptions-Aircraft lubricants by
                                                                                                             materials to manufacture
    100m.                                                              domestic operators, National Air
                                                                                                             aluminium pots.
                                                                       Force and airlines.
Sustaining the Momentum: Rwanda’s 2019/20 National Budget Insights and Highlights                                                            June 2019
PwC                                                                                                                                                27
Contacts
  Rwanda                                Uganda                                  Kenya                                   Tanzania
                                                                                Nelson Ogara
  Moses Nyabanda                        Richard Marshall                                                                David Tarimo
                                                                                Associate Director
  Partner                               Associate Director                                                              Partner
                                                                                +254 (20) 285 5000
  +250 (252) 588203/4/5/6               +256 (0) 312 354439                                                             +255 (0) 22 219 2600
                                                                                nelson.ogara@pwc.com
  moses.o.nyabanda@pwc.com              richard.marshall@pwc.com                                                        david.tarimo@pwc.com

                                                                                Tom Kavoi
  Frobisher Mugambwa                    Dorothy Uzamukunda                                                              Rishit Shah
                                                                                Senior Manager
  Associate Director                    Manager                                                                         Partner
                                                                                +254 (20) 285 5102
  +250 (252) 588203/4/5/6               +256 (0) 312 354400                                                             +255 (0) 22 219 2601
                                                                                tom.kavoi@pwc.com
  frobisher.mugambwa@pwc.com            dorothy.b.uzamukunda@pwc.com                                                    rishit.shah@pwc.com

www.pwc.com/rw

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