Taking Stock With Teens - A Collaborative Gen Z Insights Project - DECA
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HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR 39TH SURVEY August 2020
Taking Stock
With Teens ®
A Collaborative Gen Z Insights Project
Erinn Murphy
SR. RESEARCH ANALYST
Piper Sandler does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information, including an attestation under
Regulation Analyst Certification, found at the end of this report or at the following site: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures.
Disclosures for the universe of Erinn Murphy 1. I or a household member has a financial interest in the securities of the following companies: none 2. I or a household member is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the following companies: none 3. I have received compensation within the past 12 months from the following companies: none 4. Piper Sandler beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of the following companies: none 5. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship or has received compensation for investment banking services from the following companies within the past 12 months: none 6. Piper Sandler expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following companies in the next 3 months: none 7. Piper Sandler was a managing underwriter of a public offering of, or a dealer manager of a tender offer for, the securities of the following companies within the past 12 months: none 8. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship and has received compensation for non-investment banking securities related products or services in the past 12 months for the following companies: none 9. Piper Sandler has had a client relationship and has received compensation for non-securities services in the past 12 months for the following companies: none 10. Piper Sandler is a registered market maker for the following companies: CPRI, CROX, EL, ELF, FL, FNKO, GIII, KTB, LULU, NKE, PVH, SFIX, SHOO, TPR, UAA, ULTA, WWW 11. Piper Sandler will buy and sell securities on a principal basis for the following companies: ADS GR, RL, VFC
Investment Risks Risks to achievement of investment objectives include, but are not limited to, the following: • Reliance on key top management • Changing consumer preferences • Changes in input costs and raw materials • Markdown risks • Product flow and inventory disruptions • Competition • Lack of pricing power • Deleveraging of fixed expenses • Foreign exchange rate risk • General macroeconomic uncertainty
What Do We Know About GenZ?
• 67M GenZers born between 1997 – 2012 in the U.S., according to Pew Research
• 9% of U.S. population is 19-25 years old, according to the U.S. Census Bureau
• Digitally-native; highly influential; care on social issues
• Piper Sandler has been doing research on the “teenager” in the U.S. since 2001
39th Semi‐Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey
• The average teen in our survey was just four years old at onset of GFC
• The average teen in our survey was just three years old when the first iPhone launched
39th Semi-Annual Proprietary GenZ Research Project
Teens Surveyed
16.2 50%
5,200 Average Age 49%
1%
41 U.S.
States
MALE FEMALE BINARY
19%
$65,600
44% 27%
10%
Average Household Income
SOUTH WEST MIDWEST NORTHEAST
Survey is executed in partnership with DECA
The source for all charts/tables within this report is Piper Sandler
Key Takeaways
Food Owned
25%
of Teen Wallet
Generation
85%
Own iPhones
8%
of Teen Spend
Source: Chipotle. Chik-fil-a, Starbucks, Nike, lululemon, TikTok, Instagram, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, Mixhael Kors,
LVMH, Sephora, ULTA, Amazon
Teen Spending Down 13% Y/Y & Down 4% Vs. Fall
$3,200
Peak Spend
$3,023
$3,000
Annual Teenage Spend Per Year
$2,800
$2,600
$2,400 $2,371
Trough
Spend
$2,270
$2,234
$2,200
$2,000
Spring 2005
Spring 2006
Spring 2007
Spring 2008
Spring 2009
Spring 2010
Spring 2011
Spring 2012
Spring 2013
Spring 2014
Spring 2015
Spring 2016
Spring 2017
Spring 2018
Spring 2019
Spring 2020
Fall 2005
Fall 2006
Fall 2007
Fall 2008
Fall 2009
Fall 2010
Fall 2011
Fall 2012
Fall 2013
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
Fall 2016
Fall 2017
Fall 2018
Fall 2019
• Teens self-reported spending ~$2,300 per year in our survey, implying total teen spending for the of ~$63B in 2020,
assuming 27.7M teens ages 13-19.
• 47% of teens believe the economy is getting worse vs. 28% just one year ago; we saw a higher level of mentions
around the “stock market” and the “economy” as top concerns as well.
GenZ Insights: They Actually Care About The World
Most Important Political & Social Issues A closer look at what they care about...
“Practicing Zero Waste”
FALL 2019 SPRING 2020 “Global Warming is an important issue to me. I want the
1 Environment 16% 1 Environment 16% planet to be safe for the future.”
2 Immigration 12% 2 Coronavirus 11%
3 Gun Control 11% 3 Abortion 8%
“Fashion’s impact on the Environment”
4 Abortion 8% 4 Gun Control 7%
5 Racial Equality 7% 5 Racial Equality 6%
“The lack of available care for those suffering from the
6 Equality/Women's Rights 6% 6 Immigration 6%
7 Donald Trump 4% 7 Equality/Women's Rights 5% Coronavirus”
8 Bullying 3% 8 2020 Election 4%
9 2020 Election 2% 9 Health Care 3% “Gun laws not being changed”
10 LGBTQ+ Rights 2% 10 Donald Trump 2%
“The Pink Tax”
“Restaurants are closing, I lost my job due to it”
• In Spring 2020, Coronavirus appeared in the No. 2 spot. We conducted our survey from February 17 to March 27.
• Environment, nonetheless took the No.1 spot at 16% share—similar to Fall 2019. The No. 11 and No. 12 responses
this year were the Economy & LGBTQ+ Rights, respectively.
• In response to the question: “Is vaping a trend in school?” 79% of teens said “Yes” (vs. 82% last Fall); 53% said
vaping is more popular than last year and 20% said it was less popular.GenZ Gets Specific On Their Environmental Concerns
Top Environmental Concerns
91%
1. Global Warming 6. Deforestation
2. Pollution/Waste 7. Plastic
3. Coronavirus 8. Wildlife
4. Water/Ocean Health 9. Air Health
Of Teens List A Specific Concern 5. Natural Disasters 10. Resource Mgmt.
Teen Behavioral Changes
49%
1. Recycling More & Reducing Waste/Litter
2. Using Less Plastic, Converting To Metal Straws
Have Changed Their Behavior As A Result
(vs. 46% in Fall 2019) 3. Carpooling & Driving LessGenZ Insights...The Who’s Who?
Who They Like & Who They Follow
Favorite Celebrities Favorite Social Media Personalities
1. Kevin Hart 1. David Dobrik
2. LeBron James 2. LeBron James
3. Dwanye “The Rock” Johnson 3. Kylie Jenner
4. Billie Eilish 4. Donald Trump
5. Ariana Grande 5. Charli D’Amelio
6. Post Malone 6. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
7. Adam Sandler 7. Emma Chamberlain
(tie) Taylor Swift 8. Kevin Hart
9. Zendaya 9. Gary Vaynerchuk
10. Donald Trump 10. PewDiePie
• We asked teens for their favorite celebrity as well as their favorite influencer/personality to follow on social media.
• Billie Eilish made her debut in the top-10 as the No. 4, Post Malone moved into the ranking at No. 6 and Taylor Swift
tied for No. 7 (along with Adam Sandler, who has been in our top-10 before).
• Similar to last time, the favorite social media personalities were YouTube & Instagram stars and athletes.Instagram & Snap Still Rule; TikTok Makes Strong Debut
Social Media Preferences
Highest Social Media Engagement Favorite Social Media Platform
1 Instagram 85% 1 Snapchat 36%
2 Snapchat 82% 2 Instagram 31%
3 TikTok 62% 3 TikTok 13%
4 Twitter 41% 4 Twitter 4%
5 Facebook 34% 5 Facebook 4%
6 Pinterest 27% 6 Discord 2%
7 Discord 14% 7 Pinterest 1%
8 Reddit 12% 8 Reddit 1%
9 LinkedIn 4% 9 Other 1%
10 Other 4% 10 LinkedIn 0%
• Picture-based apps outperform on usage, while core Facebook rebounds slightly.
• Instagram continues to lead the pack in usage, while Snapchat continued as the favorite.
• When asked, the average teen in our survey spends ~12 hours per week on social media.
• For the first time in our survey, TikTok was a listed option as a preferred social network after strong results as a write
in within “Other.” About 62% of Teens use TikTok once a month, while 13% cited it as a favorite, after 4% of teens
wrote in TikTok as a favorite in Fall 19.NFLX & YouTube Top Platforms; Disney+ & Apple+ Debut
Teen Daily Video Consumption
1 Netflix 33%
2 YouTube 31%
3 Cable TV 11%
4 Hulu 8%
5 Disney+ 7%
6 Amazon 3%
7 Apple TV+ 2%
8 Facebook Watch tab 1%
9 Other streaming 5%
• On average, teens spend 33% of their daily video consumption on Netflix, down from 35% in Fall 2019.
• However, Netflix was the top platform, retaking the lead from YouTube at 31% (down from 37% in Fall).
• Disney+ and AppleTV+ were first-time Teen Survey options and garnered 7% and 2%, respectively.
• Hulu increased slightly to 8% from 7% for the fall while Amazon Prime was flat at 3%.Time Spent Shopping Continues To Shift Online
Department Store/Speciality Online Only eTailers
45%
% Time Spent Shopping By Channel (UI Teens)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring
2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020
• Over the last four years, time spent shopping in these two channels is relatively unchanged in aggregate.
• The composition has changed – online has picked up the >100 bps of share per year lost by traditional channels.
• Teens indicate they spend 23% of their time in specialty vs. 22% of their time online; Major Chains, Off-Price,
Discount and Outlet channels each represent between 12-14% of time allocation.
• However, 90% of female teens preferred shopping for beauty in-store vs. online—consistent with historic trend.Favorite Websites For Shopping
Upper-Income Teens
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Amazon 47% 1 Amazon 50% 1 Amazon 52% 1 Amazon 53%
2 Nike 5% 2 Nike 5% 2 Nike 4% 2 Nike 5%
3 American Eagle 3% 3 Urban Outfitters 4% 3 American Eagle 3% 3 Urban Outfitters 2%
4 Urban Outfitters 3% 4 American Eagle 3% 4 Urban Outfitters 2% 4 Shein 2%
5 PacSun 2% 5 Fashion Nova 2% 5 ebay 2% lululemon 2%
6 eBay 2% 6 lululemon 2% PacSun 2% 6 PacSun 2%
Fashion Nova 2% PacSun 2% 7 lululemon 2% 7 American Eagle 2%
8 Forever 21 2% 8 ebay 1% 8 Fashion Nova 2% 8 Princess Polly 2%
9 lululemon 2% Forever 21 1% 9 Zumiez 1% ebay 2%
10 Adidas 1% 10 Brandy Melville 1% 10 Adidas 1% 10 Brandy Melville 1%
Hollister 1%
~80% Of 2019 Softlines Dollar
Growth In North America
• Amazon’s dominance continues as 53% of teens say this is their favorite website to shop on—up from 50% in Spring.
• ~88% of upper-income female teens and ~91% of upper-income male teens shop online as of Spring’ 20; both at or
near all-time survey peaks; 94% of teen online shoppers use Amazon.
• Other websites on the rise include SHEIN & lululemon (both tied for No. 4), Princess Polly and Brand Melville.What’s In Your Wallet? Food, Video Games & Clothing
Upper-Income Teens
Males’ Wallet Share Females’ Wallet Share
1 Food 25% 1 Clothing 26%
2 Clothing 16% 2 Food 25%
3 Video Games 14% 3 Personal Care 10%
• Food remains the largest category for male spending and a close No. 2 for females; wallet share moved up 200 bps.
• Video game share moved up to 14% for males; overall dollar spending was down—consistent with overall survey.
• Clothing remains the top-choice within the wallet for females but share moderated slightly.
• Personal care remained the No. 3 wallet choice for females at 10%; spending on makeup dropped to a 10-year low.Athletic Apparel Trending Upward
Aggregate Athletic Mindshare As Favorite Apparel Brand - Upper-Income Teens
45%
41%
40%
37% 37%
36%
35% 35%
35% 33% 34%
32%
30% Average = 24% 28%
26%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
• 37% of preferred apparel brands are “athletic,” flat from 37% last Fall and 36% in Spring 2019.
• Preppy brands such as Sperry, Ralph Lauren and Vineyard Vines continue to cede share to athletic brands.Athletic Footwear Still Gaining Share Among Females
Favorite Footwear Brand Mindshare - Upper-Income Female Teens
90%
Nike Converse Vans Adidas Puma Under Armour
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
• 78% of females prefer an athletic brand of footwear (above), up 600 bps Y/Y and reaching a new survey high.
• 87% of males prefer an athletic brand of footwear, above 84% last year and in line with 87% in Fall 2019.Teen Brand Preferences
Action Sports
Gap Abercrombie & Fitch Hollister Nike
Brands
3.5 years 3.5 years 2.5 years 9.5 years
Fall 2001 Spring 2005 Fall 2008
Spring
– – – Spring 2011 - Spring 2020
2001
Fall 2004 Spring 2008 Fall 2010
Image Source: NikeFavorite Apparel Brands
All Teens – See Appendix for more detail broken down by upper vs. average-income teens or male vs. female
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Nike 22% 1 Nike 22% 1 Nike 23% 1 Nike 25%
2 American Eagle 9% 2 American Eagle 9% 2 American Eagle 10% 2 American Eagle 10%
3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 5% 3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 5%
4 Forever 21 5% 4 Forever 21 5% 4 Hollister 4% 4 Hollister 4%
5 PacSun 4% 5 Hollister 3% 5 PacSun 4% 5 PacSun 3%
6 Hollister 4% 6 PacSun 3% 6 Forever 21 3% 6 lululemon 3%
7 H&M 3% 7 Urban Outfitters 3% 7 lululemon 3% 7 Forever 21 3%
8 Ralph Lauren 2% 8 lululemon 3% 8 Vans 3% 8 Urban Outfitters 3%
9 Vans 2% 9 Victoria's Secret 2% 9 H&M 2% 9 H&M 2%
10 Urban Outfitters 2% 10 H&M 2% 10 Champion 2% 10 Vans 2%
• Apparel spending was ~$523/year—down 14% Y/Y; females outspend males by ~$40.
• Nike share continued to gain share, capturing 25% of all teen apparel preferences.
• adidas still No. 3 brand with share flat Y/Y at 5%, albeit 100 bps below Fall 2019.
• lululemon moves to No. 6 vs. No. 8 in Spring 2019; new survey high.
• Vans moves to No.10 in Spring 2020 vs. No. 11 LY although it moderates vs. Fall.
• American Eagle, Hollister and PacSun relatively stable as F21 moves down further.
• Ralph Lauren remains out of the top ten (No. 12) & Victoria’s Secret falls to No. 14.
• Champion moved from No. 10 in Fall to No. 11 this year (although above No. 17 rank LY).
Image Source: lululemon.comFavorite Footwear Brands
All Teens – See Appendix for more detail broken down by upper vs. average-income teens or male vs. female
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Nike 41% 1 Nike 41% 1 Nike 42% 1 Nike 47%
2 Vans 19% 2 Vans 20% 2 Vans 20% 2 Vans 20%
3 Adidas 14% 3 Adidas 13% 3 Adidas 13% 3 Adidas 11%
4 Converse 5% 4 Converse 5% 4 Converse 4% 4 Converse 4%
5 Foot Locker 3% 5 Foot Locker 3% 5 Foot Locker 3% 5 Foot Locker 3%
6 Birkenstock 2% 6 New Balance 1% 6 Birkenstock 2% 6 New Balance 1%
7 Steve Madden 1% 7 Steve Madden 1% 7 Crocs 1% 7 Birkenstock 1%
8 New Balance 1% 8 Birkenstock 1% New Balance 1% 8 Dr. Martens 1%
9 Journeys 1% 9 DSW 1% 9 Under Armour 1% Steve Madden 1%
Sperry 1% 10 Journeys 1% 10 Steve Madden 1% 10 Finish Line 1%
• Footwear spending was $284/year—down 5% Y/Y led by a mid-teens decline in female spend in the category.
• Male spending on footwear was resilient & actually up 4% Y/Y; males now outspend females on footwear by ~$100.
• Nike remains at No. 1 and moves to 47% share (up 600 bps Y/Y); Vans steady at the No. 2 position and 20% share.
• Seasonality plays a big role in footwear—Dr. Martens move to No. 8 and Crocs rotates out of the top-10 list.
• Crocs, however, took the No. 12 spot—the highest Spring-time reading ever vs. No. 19 just one year ago.
• Under Armour moves out of the top-10 moving to No. 14 vs. No. 9 in Fall and No. 12 last Spring.
• Sperry remains out of the top-10 preferences moving to No. 15 vs. No. 11 last year.
Image Source: Nike.comTop Fashion Trends Right Now
Upper-Income Teens
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Nike / Jordans 14% 1 Nike / Jordans 14% 1 Nike / Jordans 13% 1 Nike / Jordans 12%
2 Athletic Wear 10% 2 Athletic Wear 11% 2 Athletic Wear 11% 2 Hoodies 10%
3 Vans 7% 3 Vans 6% 3 Vans 7% 3 Athletic Wear 9%
4 Supreme 6% 4 Jogger Pants 5% 4 Champion 5% 4 Flannels 7%
5 Adidas 5% 5 Supreme 5% 5 Adidas 4% 5 Jogger Pants 5%
6 Jogger Pants 4% 6 Adidas 5% 6 Hoodies 3% 6 Champion 5%
7 Khakis / Chinos 3% 7 Hoodies 4% 7 Shorts 3% 7 Vans 5%
8 Hoodies 3% 8 Khakis / Chinos 3% 8 Sweat Shirts 3% 8 Leggings / lululemon 4%
9 Champion 3% 9 Leggings / lululemon 3% 9 Chains 3% 9 Baggy / Saggy Pants 3%
10 Leggings / lululemon 2% 10 Flannels 3% 10 Short Shorts 2% 10 Jeans 3%
Athletic (In Top 10) 46% Athletic (In Top 10) 47% Athletic (In Top 10) 47% Athletic (In Top 10) 48%
Preppy (In Top 10) 3% Preppy (In Top 10) 3% Preppy (In Top 10) 2% Preppy (In Top 10) 0%
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Leggings / lululemon 21% 1 Leggings / lululemon 28% 1 Leggings / lululemon 17% 1 Leggings / lululemon 25%
2 Jeans 7% 2 Vans 8% 2 Scrunchies 10% 2 Nike / Jordans 9%
3 Vans 6% 3 Crop Tops 5% 3 Nike / Jordans 6% 3 Crop Tops 8%
4 Birkenstock 5% 4 Jeans 5% 4 Baggy / Saggy Pants 6% 4 Jeans 7%
5 Crop Tops 5% 5 Nike / Jordans 4% 5 Jeans 5% 5 Ripped Jeans 4%
6 Ripped Jeans 4% 6 Ripped Jeans 3% 6 Vans 5% 6 Scrunchies 3%
7 Tube Tops 3% 7 Hair 2% 7 Crop Tops 4% 7 Vans 3%
8 Victoria's Secret 3% 8 Scrunchies 2% 8 VSCO 4% 8 Brandy Melville 3%
9 Scrunchies 2% 9 Victoria's Secret 2% 9 Birkenstock 3% 9 VSCO 2%
10 Fashion Nova 2% 10 Athletic Wear 2% 10 Ripped Jeans 3% 10 Hoodies 2%
Athletic (In Top 10) 27% Athletic (In Top 10) 42% Athletic (In Top 10) 28% Athletic (In Top 10) 39%Beauty Wallet Contracts Well-Below Survey Average
$400
$368
$350
$318
Annual Total Beauty Spend (All Female Teens)
Average: $302
$300
$263 $258
$250
$229
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
• The beauty wallet (cosmetics, skincare & fragrance) stood at $258/year in Spring 2020 down 19% Y/Y but only down
2% from Fall; the multi-survey average is $302/year for the overall beauty category
• Cosmetics as a component of this wallet saw the steepest declines down 26% Y/Y—the lowest since Fall 2010Cosmetics Spending At 20-Survey Low, Down 26% Y/Y
Skin Care Cosmetics Fragrance
$200
$180 $173
Annual "Self Reported" Female Spend
$160
$140
$140
$120
$103
$100
$101
$80
$60
$54
$40
$20
$0
Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring Spring
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• Female spending on cosmetics was dramatically lower to $103/year, a 26% contraction from $139/year vs. last year
• Spending levels are now 17% below the multi-survey average of $124/year (peak: Spring 2017 at $173)
• For skincare, spending of $101 was down 15% Y/Y from $119/year (peak: Spring 2018 at $140)
• For fragrance, spending of $54 was down 10% Y/YBeauty: Favorite Shopping Destinations
All Female Teens
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Sephora 34% 1 Ulta 33% 1 Ulta 38% 1 Ulta 39%
2 Ulta 34% 2 Sephora 31% 2 Sephora 26% 2 Sephora 24%
3 Walmart 9% 3 Walmart 8% 3 Walmart 8% 3 Target 8%
4 Target 8% 4 Target 6% 4 Target 7% 4 Walmart 8%
5 CVS 2% 5 Amazon 4% 5 Amazon 5% 5 Amazon 4%
6 MAC 1% 6 Walgreens 1% 6 CVS 2% 6 Walgreens 2%
7 Walgreens 1% 7 CVS 1% 7 MAC 1% 7 Glossier 1%
8 Macy's 1% 8 Morphe 1% 8 Morphe 1% 8 CVS 1%
9 Sally Beauty 1% 9 MAC 1% 9 Glossier 1% 9 Macy's 1%
10 Bath & Body Works 1% 10 Glossier 1% Walgreens 1% 10 Morphe 1%
• 90% of teens prefer to shop for beauty in-store vs. online; this is consistent with last year.
• Ulta strengthens its position as the No. 1 preferred beauty destination at 39% share vs. 33% last year (+600 bps Y/Y).
• Sephora stays at No. 2 but moves to 24% share vs. 31% last year (-700 bps Y/Y).
• Target overtakes Walmart capturing the No. 3 spot with a corresponding 200 bps share gain vs. Spring 2019.
• Amazon rounds out the No. 5 spot & Glossier moves up from No. 10 to No. 7; Morphe moves down to No. 10.
• We saw minor share shifts between Walgreens, CVS and Macy’s.Beauty: Favorite Skincare Brands
All Female Teens
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Neutrogena 21% 1 Neutrogena 18% 1 Neutrogena 18% 1 Neutrogena 16%
2 Clean & Clear 8% 2 Mario Badescu 7% 2 Mario Badescu 8% 2 Mario Badescu 10%
3 Cetaphil 5% 3 Clean & Clear 6% 3 Clean & Clear 8% 3 Cetaphil 7%
4 Mario Badescu 5% 4 Clinique 6% 4 Cetaphil 6% 4 Clean & Clear 6%
5 Clinique 5% 5 Cetaphil 6% 5 Clinique 5% 5 Clinique 4%
6 Proactiv 5% 6 Proactiv 5% 6 Proactiv 4% 6 Proactiv 3%
7 Aveeno 2% 7 Biore 2% 7 Aveeno 2% 7 CeraVe 3%
8 Biore 2% 8 CeraVe 2% Biore 2% 8 Curology 2%
9 St. Ives 2% Olay 2% 9 Burt's Bees 2% 9 Olay 2%
10 Mary-Kay 2% 10 Aveeno 2% 10 CeraVe 2% 10 Aveeno 2%
Biore 2%
• Skincare spending for all female teens was $101/year—down 15% Y/Y and down 4% vs. multi-survey avg. of $106.
• Neutrogena retained the No. 1 spot as mass brands continue to dominate the top-10 list.
• Mario Badescu remains in its No. 2 spot with its peak-survey share of 10% (up 300 bps Y/Y).
• Clinique share moved down by 200 bps Y/Y, rounding out the top-five.
• Curology (customized, digitally-native, subscription skincare) made its debut top-10 appearance at No. 8.
• CeraVe moved up within the top-10 and Olay, Aveeno & Biore remained in the top-10 Y/Y.
• The biggest mover among upper-income females was Glossier—which ranked No. 6 in Spring 2020 vs. No. 9 LY.Beauty: Favorite Cosmetics Brands
All Female Teens
FALL 2018 SPRING 2019 FALL 2019 SPRING 2020
1 Tarte 13% 1 Tarte 11% 1 Tarte 13% 1 Tarte 11%
2 Too Faced 9% 2 Too Faced 8% 2 Too Faced 9% 2 Maybelline 9%
3 MAC 7% 3 MAC 7% 3 Maybelline 7% 3 Too Faced 7%
4 Maybelline 7% 4 Morphe 7% 4 e.l.f. 6% 4 e.l.f. 5%
5 Anastasia Beverly Hills 6% 5 Maybelline 6% 5 Morphe 6% Fenty Beauty 5%
6 Sephora 5% 6 e.l.f. 5% 6 MAC 6% Morphe 5%
7 CoverGirl 5% 7 Anastasia Beverly Hills 5% 7 Fenty Beauty 5% 7 MAC 5%
8 e.l.f. 5% 8 Fenty Beauty 5% 8 Sephora 5% 8 CoverGirl 4%
9 Fenty Beauty 4% Sephora 5% 9 Anastasia Beverly Hills 4% 9 L'Oreal 4%
10 Morphe 4% 10 CoverGirl 5% 10 L'Oreal 4% 10 Sephora 4%
Urban Decay 4%
• Female spending on cosmetics was dramatically down year-over-year—to $103/year, a 26% contraction.
• Spending levels are now 17% below the multi-survey average of $124/year (peak spend $173 in Spring 2017).
• Tarte (Kose-owned) remained the top-ranked cosmetics brand (5th consecutive survey) at 11% share.
• Makeup artistry brands MAC (now No. 7) & Anastasia Beverly Hills (No. 11) both decelerated in rank & share.
• Three brands tied for No. 4 this year (e.l.f., Fenty Beauty & Morphe); e.l.f up from No. 6 and Fenty from No. 8 last
year.
• Morphe while still a top brand saw 200 bps of share erosion Y/Y.
• Too Faced slipped slightly as Maybelline moved into No. 2 spot; CoverGirl moved back to top-10 list (vs. 11 in Spring).Beauty: Shopping Channel Trends Favor Specialty
Favorite Beauty Shopping Destinations – Upper-Income Female Teens
Digital Mass, Dept & Drug Stores Specialty
80%
Aggregate Mindshare (Includes T10 Brands; % Of Total)
71%
70% 71%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Channel Reversal:
14%
Specialty stores
outpace legacy 15%
10% Amazon:
formats 5%
Begins to register 5%
within top-10
0%
Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring
2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020
• 71% of UI teens prefer specialty formats for beauty shopping – unchanged from Spring 2019.
• Aggregate legacy channel (CVS, Macy’s, Target, Walmart, etc.) mindshare was relatively stable at 15%.
• Digital pure-plays, led by Amazon and followed by Glossier, captured 5% share—similar to last year.
• When asked if they or their household purchase beauty/personal care on AMZN, 23% say “yes” vs. 21% last Spring.Clean Beauty Buzz Resonating With Teens
All Female Teens
53% Look At Ingredients In Their Beauty/ Personal Care Products
(vs. 47% in Fall 2019)
75% Willing To Spend More For “Clean” Or Natural Beauty
(unchanged vs. Fall 2019)
30% Average Pricing Premium For “Clean” Or Natural
(vs. 29% in Fall 2019)Beauty Industry Is Hot For Influencers
90%
78%
80%
% Of Teens Using Source For Brand Discovery
70% 67%
60%
50%
39%
40%
30%
20%
14%
10%
0%
Online Influencers Friends Beauty Retailers/Brands Magazine
Directly Editors/Advertisements
Fall-17 Spring-18 Fall-18 Spring-19 Fall-19 Spring-20
• ~78% of females use online influencers as a source of discovery for beauty brands & trends—flattish with past trends.
• Beauty Retails & Brands going communicating direct with consumers is improving as well.
• In looking at “favorite influencers,” Kylie Jenner is No. 3 among all teens and the only beauty influencer in the top-10.
• We saw Shane Dawson in No. 12 and Jeffree Star at No. 13 whereas James Charles did not make the top-25.
• Kim Kardashian was the No. 22 “favorite influencer” this Spring.Thank You For Being Part Of Our Survey We just kicked off our 40th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey. Please support our partnership with DECA by answering our survey below. https://pjc.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3qqMqyRZXZMaiP3 We love your honesty & value your opinions and look forward to sharing the results with you all later this Fall. Stay safe, wear a mask & wash your hands!
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