The 2013 Federal Election: Electoral Outlook, Policy Outlook and Campaign Considerations - Nicholas Reece 26 March, 2013 BSL Lunchtime Seminar ...

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The 2013 Federal Election: Electoral Outlook, Policy Outlook and Campaign Considerations - Nicholas Reece 26 March, 2013 BSL Lunchtime Seminar ...
The 2013 Federal Election: Electoral
Outlook, Policy Outlook and
Campaign Considerations

Nicholas Reece
26 March, 2013
BSL Lunchtime Seminar Series
FEDERAL ELECTION BASICS

• Election on September 14, 2013.
• Less than 6 months.
• 25 Saturdays.

• House of Representatives and Half Senate
  election.
Politics is a numbers game

House of Representatives – 150 Seats
   • 71 ALP
   • 72 Coalition
   • 1 Green
   • 6 Independents

Senate – 76 Seats
   • 31 ALP
   • 34 Coalition
   • 9 Green
   • 1 DLP
   • 1 Independent

Half senate election = 36 State Senators and all 4 Territory Senators
RECENT POLLING – Poll Bludger, March 20

                VOTES %         2010 %
Labor           33.9            -4.1
Coalition       46.8            +3.2
Greens          9.0             -2.8
Others          10.3            +3.7
LABOR           45.3            -4.8
COALITION       54.7            +4.8

                       SEATS             2010
Labor                  52                -20
Coalition              93                +20
Not projected          5
THE STATES – Poll Bludger, March 20

              ALP 2PP %       L-NP 2PP %     ALP SWING %
NSW           43.7            56.3           -5.1
Victoria      50.4            49.6           -4.9
Queensland    43.0            57.0           -1.9
WA            40.7            59.3           -2.9
SA            45.2            54.8           -8.0
Tasmania      47.9            52.1           -12.7
Territories   53.8            46.2           -4.6
THE STATES – Poll Bludger, 20 March

              ALP SEATS       L-NP 2PP       ALP CHANGE
                              SEATS
NSW           17              29             -9

Victoria      19              17             -3

Queensland    6               23             -2

WA            2               13             -1

SA            5               6              -1

Tasmania      1               3              -3

Territories   2               2              -1
POSSIBLE TARGET SEATS

LABOR               LABOR cont…      COALITION        GREEN / IND
Corangamite (VIC)   Moreton (QLD)    Brisbane (QLD)   Melbourne (VIC)
Deakin (VIC)        Petrie (QLD)     Forde (QLD)      Denison (TAS)
La Trobe (VIC)      Brand (WA)       Longman (QLD)
Greenway (NSW)      Hindmarsh (SA)   Herbert (QLD)
Robertson (NSW)     Bass (TAS)       Dawson (QLD)
Lindsay (NSW)       Braddon (TAS)    Bonner (QLD)
Banks (NSW)         Franklin (TAS)   Hasluck (WA)
Reid NSW)           Lingiari (NT)    Canning (WA)
Page (NSW)                           Swan (WA)
Eden-Monaro (NSW)                    Boothby (SA)
Grayndler (NSW)
Parramatta (NSW)
Dobell (NSW)
THE SENATE

• Historically you need two strong election results in a
  row to control the Senate.
• Based on this weeks polling the Coalition would win
  control of the Senate.
• Based on polling for the last six months, Coalition is
  likely to fall just short but the DLP may have BOP.

The electoral calculation
• 39 seats needed. Coalition hold 34, need 5.
• 5 = 1 DLP + 1 Tasmania (ex ALP) + 1 SA (ex Green)
  + 1 Katter Party in QLD (ex Green or ALP) + 1 WA
  (ex Green)
LABOR MESSAGE

• We’ve got a lot of work to do and we will continue to do it -
  making the investments that are needed to create jobs and
  opportunity and get our nation ready for the future. Delivering
  the National Broadband Network, National Disability Insurance
  Scheme, supporting modern families with everyday stresses
  and cost of living pressures. And above all, ensuring that every
  Australian child gets a world-class education.
• Julia Gillard is a person who gets things done, she is tough and
  determined and she is on your side.
• Tony Abbott is a huge risk: he has $70 billion in unfunded
  promises that will be paid for with cuts like those in Queensland,
  Victoria and NSW – he will cut education, health and industry
  support, scrap the NBN and cannot deliver the NDIS. He will
  cut workplace entitlements and protections and give up on
  tackling climate change. He is hard line social conservative.
COALITION MESSAGE

• This is a bad government – broken promises, waste,
  mismanagement, divided, class war, run by faceless
  men of the party and union movement.

• It does not have to be this way. The Coalition will
  deliver a strong Australia with lower taxes, lower debt
  and stronger borders.

• Tony Abbott has dedicated his life to public service.
  He is a volunteer firefighter and lifesaver. He is
  married to Margie and has three children.
LABOR: BUDGET AND TAXATION

• Keep the mining tax
• Keep the carbon tax
• Return the Budget to surplus
• Cut company tax by the equivalent amount of
  concessions removed within the business tax
  system.
• Budget speculation: To deliver funds for
  education, NDIS and Labor priorities = tax savings
  on superannuation, means testing childcare
  rebates, tightening eligibility for Family Tax Benefit
  B and further tightening in disability benefits.
COALITION: BUDGET AND TAXATION

• Abolish the carbon tax
• Abolish the mining tax
• Cut personal income tax
• Cut company tax by 1.5 per cent
• Coalition will run a tighter fiscal policy than Labor with cuts in
  the public service including removal of duplication of
  functions at state and Commonwealth level.
• Labor claims the Coalition has more than $70 billion of
  unfunded election promises.
• Coalition Government public sector job cuts in Queensland
  (14,000), Victoria (3,600), NSW (10,000).
COALITION: INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS

• “We need to address Australia’s growing workplace
  militancy, flexibility and productivity challenges”.
• Labour market reforms but not a return to
  WorkChoices
• Media Reports: Appoint the Productivity Commission
  to conduct a wide-ranging investigation into the Fair
  Work Act. Any major changes would be delayed until
  after the 2016 election.
LABOR: INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS

• Family flexibility laws that extend the scope of the
  right to request flexible working arrangements to
  include carers, workers with disability, mature-aged
  workers, and workers experiencing domestic
  violence.
• Requirements for employers to genuinely consult with
  employees about changes to rosters and working
  hours, including the impact on their family life
• Increase the arbitration powers of the Fair Work
  Commission.
• Changes to union right of access rules.
LABOR: EDUCATION

• Deliver on the Gonksi Review – April COAG critical.
• Estimate: $5 billion in additional funding
• A new a two-tiered model called the 'schooling
  resource standard” which includes a 'per student'
  amount, with adjustments for students and schools
  facing certain additional costs or disadvantage.
• Commitment that no school will be worse off.
COALITION: EDUCATION

• Will retain the existing funding model.
• Rejects the Gonski finding of a direct link between
  the flaws in the current funding model and Australia’s
  relative decline in educational outcomes - and the link
  between educational equity and national education
  outcomes.
• Put local communities in charge of improving the
  performance of schools
• Encourage state schools to become independent
  schools, providing simpler budgeting and resource
  allocation and more autonomy.
• Reintroduce a $500 grant per student grant for new
  independent schools.
LABOR: HEALTH

• 2011 funding agreement with the States
• Recent controversy over the $1.6 billion
  “recalibration”.
• Recent threats to provide funding directly to
  hospitals.
• $4.1bn over six years for a new dental scheme for
  children and low-income adults in part funded
  through changes to the Medicare dental scheme.
COALITION: HEALTH

• 2010: In favour of a 100 per cent hospital funding
  takeover.
• Put local communities in charge of hospitals and
  improving co-operation with the States and
  Territories.
• We aspire to improve and restore dental services
  through Medicare as soon as we responsibly can.
• Will restore the Private Health Insurance rebate as
  soon as we responsibly can.
COALITION: ENVIRONMENT

• Direct action to reduce carbon emissions inside
  Australia and also establish a 15,000 strong Green
  Army to clean-up the environment.
• Will cut Australia’s emissions by 5% by 2020. $3
  billion Emissions Reduction Fund
• Streamline environmental approvals – stop the
  delays, complexities and uncertainties imposed by
  the Commonwealth and States
• Adopt a practical, balanced and sustainable
  approach to environmental issues. Support the
  fishing industry by setting up more rigorous
  assessments for new Marine Protected Areas.
COALITION: IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM
                 SEEKER POLICY

• Re-introduce Temporary Protection Visas (TPVs) to
  deny the people smugglers a product to sell.
• New orders to the Navy to “turn back” the boats
  where safe to do so.
• We will boost rigorous offshore processing for illegal
  arrivals.
• Establish a presumption against refugee status for
  people who arrive in boats without identity papers.
• We will reserve 11,000 of the 13,750 refugee places
  each year for offshore applicants.
• Our immigration program will focus on skilled
  migrants targeting skills shortages.
GREENS: IMMIGRATION

• Want to end offshore processing
• Increase share of places for off-shore refugees and
  humanitarian entrants
• Abolish mandatory detention for asylum seekers
• Population policy to be based on environmentally
  sustainable levels not economic drivers
COALITION: VOLUNTARY SECTOR

• We will support community groups to strengthen local
  communities and enhance the social fabric. Eg. $10
  million support to assist surf life-saving clubs buy
  needed equipment and to tackle drowning black-
  spots.
• Re-establish the successful Coalition Community-
  Business Partnerships to engage with local
  communities and advices on encouraging more
  philanthropy by business and in assisting charities
  and community groups in their local area.
COALITION: WELFARE TO WORK

• Measures to lift workforce participation: 2010 - Job
  Commitment Bonus, Job Relocation Payment
• Critical of childcare assistance for out of work
  mothers who sign up for training or are looking for
  work.
• Increase in Newstart is under active consideration but
  it must be made a short-term payment because too
  many people are staying on the dole for too long.
PAID PARENTAL LEAVE

Labor
• 18 weeks paid parental leave for mother at the
  minimum wage. Only eligible for people earning
  under $150,000
• 2 weeks paid parental leave for father/partner at the
  minimum wage
Coalition
• Six months leave at full pay up to $150,000 a year, to
  be administered by government and cost to be borne
  by big business via a 1.5 per cent levy.
• Will restore Baby bonus for second and subsequent
  children to $5,000.
NDIS

Labor
• Only Labor can be trusted to deliver the NDIS

Coalition
• We are fully committed to helping people with
  disabilities and their carers and delivering the NDIS
  as soon as possible in line with the Productivity
  Commissions timetable.
OPPORTUNITIES – ELECTION CAMPAIGNS

• Election campaign is an opportunity for the
  community sector.
   – New avenues of influence
   – New policy thinking.
   – New philosophy. Eg. The Big Society,
     Compassionate Conservatism, Third Way.
• The election campaign issue agenda (community
  sector):
   – NDIS
   – Education reform
   – Welfare to work
   – Asylum seeker
OPPORTUNTIES – MORE BROADLY

• Influence the policy agenda not the daily news cycle.
• Understand the intersection of the problem stream,
  policy stream and political stream.
• Evidence based policy making.
• Hone your message – values based, pick your frame.
• Get organised - eg. NDIS
• The power of engagement – eg. Socialist Alternative
• Multiple avenues of influence: Ministers, Advisers,
  government officials, multiple departments, media,
  social media.
© Copyright The University of Melbourne 2011
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