THE 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS OF 2019: AN ESTABLISHED EUROPEAN SCENARIO, DISTINGUISHED BY SOME LOCAL SURPRISES - Kantar
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
THE 2019 EUROPEAN
ELECTIONS OF 2019:
AN ESTABLISHED
EUROPEAN SCENARIO, Emmanuel Rivière
DISTINGUISHED BY SOME
Chairman
Centre Kantar sur le Futur de l’Europe
emmanuel.riviere@kantarpublic.com
LOCAL SURPRISES. Nicolas Becuwe
Kantar
UN DOCUMENT DE RÉFLEXION DU CENTRE KANTAR Head of the International Election Team
SUR LE FUTUR DE L'EUROPE - ANALYSE INITIALEMENT PUBLIÉE nicolas.becuwe@kantar.com
PAR ESOMAR DANS RESEARCH WORLD
The upsurge that saw the participation rate of Europeans in The new parliament
the 2019 elections jump by more than 8 points compared to As for the results themselves, and their effect on the
the 2014 election to reach 50.63% (by far the highest rate composition of the new parliament, the elections of May
since the enlargement of 2004 and furthermore, since more 26 only confirmed the new equilibrium anticipated by the
than 20 years1) was one of the main lessons of the May 26 polls. The main consequence of this being namely that the
election, and one of its first surprises. two largest groups in the Strasbourg Chamber, the EPP and
the S & D, would no longer hold the absolute majority. As
However, even if it was unexpectedly large, this rising expected the EPP remains the main group, with 182 seats
participation was not inconsistent with pre-election surveys, out of 751, and the losses it suffered (39 seats compared to
which foresaw a possible rise in mobilisation in a number the constitutive session of 2014) are entirely in line with the
of countries. The European Parliament's 911 Eurobarometer projections based on pre-election surveys.
was in line with this result, as the February-March survey
saw an increase in the number of people reporting a high The surprise came from France where the Republicans, at
probability of voting. Above all, this surge of participation is 8.5%, fell to an unprecedented level 4 to 5 points lower than
perfectly consistent with other lessons learned from these that expected by the polls. However, this under-performance
same surveys: the accumulation of themes of concern such was compensated by the slightly better than expected scores
as economic growth, unemployment, immigration and for the EPP composition in a number of Central European
climate change that voters wanted to see debated during countries (mainly in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and
these elections. Two of these topics, immigration and climate Romania).
change, were of concern to very different electorates, but
were strongly mobilised by the feeling that Europe is the
relevant level to manage these issues, thereby increasing 1 It is necessary to go back to the 1994 European elections to find a higher level
participation. of participation at a European level (56.67%)
The retreat of S & D's social democrats, which with 153 The British reinforcements, and to a lesser extent the Irish and
seats lost about 30 elected representatives, was also widely Austrian Greens, the separatists in Spain participated in this
anticipated on a continental scale. Some successes have success. It should be noted, however, that this phenomenon
managed to limit losses or even to generate a surprise, such mainly concerns Western, Nordic and Baltic Europe. Central
as the Dutch PvdA, which gained an unexpected first place Europe (with the exception of the Czech Pirate Party) is not
in most pre-election polls2. Thus probably owes much to represented in this group. The Greens remain nonetheless one
the personality of Frans Timmermans, and perhaps to its of the pivotal parties to constitute the future majority that
status of "Spitzenkandidat" but also seems to be a sign of the EPP and S & D no longer accumulate alone. They share
a vote in favor of the European Union in view of the under- this status with another election winner, the centrist and
performance of both eurosceptic parties, the FvD of Thierry liberal group, newly named "Renew Europe".
Baudet and the PVV of Geert Wilders.
The contribution of the 21 elected French members of the
In Italy, the Democratic Party held up well, and during the Renaissance list to the former ALDE allows this group to
campaign seems to have gained ground with some of the exceed 100 seats (108) and become the third group of the
voters who had been seduced by the 5-star movement which new hemicycle, according to projections3. The pre-election
seems to suffer from its participation in the government with surveys had indeed correctly anticipated the score of the
the Lega of Matteo Salvini. list "En Marche" in France, slightly overestimated that of
Ciudadanos in Spain, but more largely underestimated that
In Spain, the PSOE has largely won, and in the new Parliament of the British Lib Dems. Recent information on local alliances
it provides the main delegation of the S & D, with 20 seats, in Ciudadanos with the PP and especially Vox (especially in
while Germany has only 16. The main lesson of this election is Madrid) could nevertheless numerically weaken this political
indeed in the weakening of social-democratic formations in group that could decide to exclude Ciudadanos.
three countries that historically provided large contingents to
the S & D, the United Kingdom, Germany and France. In these
latter two countries, SPD and PS are for the first time ahead of
the Greens. In the United Kingdom the Labor Party is hot on
the heels of the Green Party, but with the support of the three
Scottish members of the SNP, the British delegation in the
Greens/EFA will be larger than the S & D.
Greens grow
The progress of the Greens/EFA group from 52 to 75 seats
was not expected at this level. It is mainly due to the score
of the German Greens (which, with 20.5%, do a little better
than expected) but also the gap with forecasts is mainly
2 However, Kantar Netherland had PvdA and FvD head to head in our last poll
in France, where the third place of EELV (13.5%) was not 3 The projections of Kantar three days before the elections attributed
anticipated. 108 deputies to this group.
© KANTAR THE 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS OF 2019 2The key winners The transition from a two-group majority (EPP and S &
The main beneficiaries of the decline of the EPP and the S & D) to a four-party majority (+ Renewed Europe and the
D are the Liberals and the ecologists, and if we compare the Greens) will nonetheless have a major impact on the
elected and the outgoing Parliament, these four groups that functioning of the European Parliament. The appointment
could constitute the future majority are almost stable, going of the President of the European Commission thus already
from 522 to 518 seats. They represent 2/3 of the hemicycle. seems strongly affected by this change since the system
of "Spitzenkandidat" which assigns the presidency of the
This fits poorly with the scenario that was very present in Commission to the "candidate at the top of the list" of the
people's minds, but was quickly contradicted by the first European political party which won the greatest number of
projections based on pre-election surveys, of a "populist" or seats in the European Parliament seems in question. This
"anti-European" tidal wave in Strasbourg. process endorsed in 2014, hailed as a democratic progress at
the time, and confirmed in 2018 by the European Parliament,
On the far left of the hemicycle, the GUE/NGL suffered an
was supposed to appoint Manfred Weber of the EPP as
under-performance (from 52 to 38 seats), particularly in
President of the Commission. This scenario seems to be being
France where France Insoumise is far from the left supremacy
squeezed out by pressure from some of the members of this
that the polls gave hope for. This group also declined in Spain
new coalition in the center
(Podemos) and in Greece (Syriza facing the test of power)
where the context of the economic crisis had provided it with
good scores in 2014.
What about the sovereignists?
In contrast, the Eurosceptics right-wing formations (ECR and
EFDD, as well as that Identity and Democracy, which replaces
ENF) increased from 155 seats to 179. This space, however,
remains divided into three groups, among which the internal
balances have evolved. The sharp decline of the British Tories
(from 19 to 4 seats), was more severe than anticipated, and
weakens the ECR. This weakening is however relative because
it is compensated by the very good result of the Polish party
Law and Justice (PiS) which is in the lead and obtained
more than 45% of the votes allowing it to grow from 19 to
26 seats, which makes it the fourth party with the most
representatives in the European Parliament behind the CDU
(29), the Brexit Party (29) and the Lega (28). The anticipated
success of the Lega in Italy strengthens ID which gets 73
seats, thanks also to the first place of the National Rally in
France, to the 11 German seats of AFD, which chose to join
this group but also to the Vlaams Belang which with 11.68 %
and three seats comes second in Belgium just behind
the N-VA.
EFDD is apparently stable, due to the very high Brexit Party
score (29 seats), but does not have the number of national
delegations needed to form a group, since only the Italian 5
Stars Movement would be involved. In addition, the prospect
of the departure of the British deputies suggests another
distribution of groups to the right of the Chamber, which
could still benefit ID. But for this legislature, this right-wing
sovereignist pole will remain a minority, as foreseen by the
surveys and projections.
© KANTAR THE 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS OF 2019 3ESOMAR is the global voice of the data, research and
insights community, speaking on behalf of over 4900
individual professionals and 500 companies who
provide or commission data analytics and research in
more than 130 countries, all of whom agree to uphold
the ICC/ESOMAR International Code. Together with
national and international research associations, we
set and promote professional standards and self-
regulation for our sector and encourage, advance and
advocate the role and value of data analytics, market
and opinion research in illuminating real issues and
bringing about effective decision-making.
CENTRE KANTAR SUR
LE FUTUR DE L’EUROPE
Established within Kantar, a global
consulting and research business, the
‘Centre Kantar sur le Futur de L’Europe’ brings
together a pan-European team of researchers
with expertise in political and opinion polling,
social and economic trends and migration.
The Centre aims to contribute to the quality
of public debate through Kantar’s analysis and
knowledge of public opinion and political change
in Europe and its member countries.
Global leader of data, studies and consulting, the
Kantar group clusters all the fields of research and
marketing consulting. The 30 000 experts of Kantar
develop business strategies for decision makers
around the world and more than a half of the Fortune
500 companies. This expertise leads us to bring
insights about everything consumers and citizens feel,
buy, look, vote, post, debate. Everything they live.
Find us on https://www.kantar.com/
Twitter: @Kantar
© KANTAR THE 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS OF 2019 4You can also read
