THE BEST OF TIMES, THE WORST OF TIMES - NORTH AMERICAN ASSET MANAGEMENT - GLOBAL WEALTH & ASSET MANAGEMENT PRACTICE - MCKINSEY

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THE BEST OF TIMES, THE WORST OF TIMES - NORTH AMERICAN ASSET MANAGEMENT - GLOBAL WEALTH & ASSET MANAGEMENT PRACTICE - MCKINSEY
The Best of Times,
The Worst of Times
North American
Asset Management

Global Wealth & Asset Management Practice
Cover image: Untitled, 1963, by Alexander Calder
© 2017 Calder Foundation, New York / Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York
Contents

  Introduction                                   2

Introduction

State of the industry:
  State of the industry:
  A continuing phase shift
                                                 4

A continuing phase shift
Mind the gap: A widening performa
  Mind the gap: A widening performance spread
  and an impending shakeout
                                                10

spread and an impending shakeou
An inconvenient truth: The great
  An inconvenient truth:
  The great redistribution of value
                                                16

redistribution of value
  A tale of two cities                          30

A tale of two cities
2                  The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

        Introduction

Introduction
     Despite buoyant capital markets and an unexpected regu-
     latory pause, a pall fell over the North American asset man-
     agement industry in 2016 as flows turned negative, a
     growing number of active managers underperformed their
     benchmarks, margins compressed, and aggregate industry
     profits retreated. Although 2017 has shown indications of
     an uptick in industry performance, a mood of pessimism
     continues to prevail. The inconvenient truth for asset man-
     agers is that strong secular trends—a moderation in long-
     term investment returns, an aging demographic shifting
     from an accumulation to withdrawal phase, the runoff of
     large pension funds, and pricing pressure driven by passive
     investments—are now firmly in control and will weigh on
     the industry for the next 20 years. Welcome to the new ab-
     normal of asset management.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                              3

These secular trends are widening the gap         ence of portfolio construction and the un-
between top and bottom performers. Today,         derlying drivers of product demand.
the difference in profitability between the
                                                  This is not all bad news for asset managers.
top- and bottom-quartile managers stands
                                                  A rising bar for the industry is causing under-
at a remarkable 42 percentage points. For
                                                  performing rivals to fall by the wayside. A
the first time since the depths of the finan-
                                                  shift in investment paradigms is opening
cial crisis in 2009, more funds closed or
                                                  clients’ minds to new innovations that cut
merged than were launched last year. Inter-
                                                  across asset classes. This in turn is leading
estingly, and counter to some conventional
                                                  to a radical shift in how clients invest—for
wisdom that predicts an inexorable shift to-
                                                  example, private equity now increasingly
wards scale, our research finds winners and
                                                  competes directly with public equities and
losers across institutions of all sizes. The
                                                  credit with fixed income. Moreover, technol-
greatest predictor of success has not been
                                                  ogy creates an unprecedented opportunity
size, but focused execution to capture
                                                  to improve both client experience and man-
share in the most important pools of value
                                                  ager efficiency, which stands to create new
in the industry. Many in the industry now
                                                  sources of competitive advantage for firms
predict, and we believe correctly, that these
                                                  that embrace technology in the right ways.
factors will drive a wave of consolidation.
But consolidation will take a different form      In short, asset managers with the right op-
than many assume—instead of mega deals            erating models and value propositions
aimed at creating scale efficiencies, large       have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to
and medium-sized firms alike will make tar-       drastically improve their competitive posi-
geted acquisitions to add capabilities, and       tion, capturing additional clients, assets,
struggling managers of all sizes will shutter     and market share. For North American
due to their inability to meet the industry’s     asset managers, it is truly the best of
rising bar.                                       times and the worst of times.

These secular trends are not only affecting       This report draws on McKinsey’s ongoing re-
the industry’s economics, they are con-           search into the asset management industry,
tributing to a fundamental change to how          including insights from McKinsey’s 17th
value is distributed both across and within       Global Asset Management Survey, which
major asset classes. This redistribution has      gathers benchmarking data from more than
been steadily under way for a decade but          300 asset managers—more than 100 from
is near a tipping point as two investing          North America, representing $30 trillion (80
trends take root with clients: risk-based         percent) of assets under management
asset allocation that cuts across asset           (AUM)—as well as McKinsey’s annual Global
classes and factor investing that identifies      Growth Cube data, which provides a granu-
additional drivers of value beyond the mar-       lar breakdown of historical and forward-
ket capitalization-weighted indices of            looking AUM, revenue, and net flow data for
“standard” passive investing. These innova-       42 regions and countries, 9 client segments,
tions are reinventing the very art and sci-       15 asset classes, and 5 product vehicles.
4                   The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

State of the i
        State of the industry:
        A continuing phase
        shift
A continuing
     After a rough stretch in 2015, the macroeconomic and mar-
     ket environment picked up steam in 2016 and into 2017. An
     extended period of political and regulatory uncertainty came
     to somewhat of a pause after the US presidential election,
     corporate profits continued on an upward trajectory, volatility
     declined, and the equity markets powered ahead, with the
     S&P 500 delivering 10-percent returns for 2016 and over 16
     percent by the end of October 2017. But while global AUM
     hit a record high of $75.8 trillion by the end of 2016, the in-
     dustry’s organic growth decelerated to 1.5 percent (from a
     postcrisis high of 3.6 percent in 2015). This deceleration was
     most pronounced in North America, the only major region
     where flows turned slightly negative (-0.4 percent), with out-
     flows of $161 billion despite rising markets (Exhibit 1). The
     mood among professional ranks was distinctly gloomy.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                                                            5

n
                   This was a big change from the first                                               2016 was the first time in 20 years that
                   decade of the century, particularly the re-                                        industry revenues and markets were out
                   covery from the global financial crisis,                                           of sync; ominously, profit margins de-
                   when the North American asset manage-                                              clined for the second consecutive year
                   ment industry enjoyed a rosy period of                                             even as markets powered ahead, char-
                   AUM growth driven by rising markets and                                            acterized by a level of volatility that
                   organic inflows. It was a rising tide that                                         caused investors to stay on the sidelines
                   lifted all boats.                                                                  (Exhibit 2, page 6).

                   Over the past 18 months, a shift has oc-                                           Several familiar themes drove these re-
                   curred, ushering in a “new abnormal” for                                           sults. Demographic shifts definitely played
                   the industry where neither growth nor                                              a role, as millions of baby boomers went
                   profitability can be taken for granted.                                            from accumulating savings for retirement
                   North America remains the world’s                                                  to repositioning their portfolios for retire-
                   largest asset management market by far,                                            ment spending. Institutional market out-
                   accounting for about half of total AUM,                                            flows continued gradually, as unfunded
                   but from 2012 to 2016 it accounted for                                             defined benefit liabilities continued to
                   only about 20 percent of flows. And                                                grow (a $63 billion increase by public

Exhibit 1

In 2016,           North America1 AUM, 2007-16 year-end
                   $ trillion
                                                                                                                                              Market performance
                                                                                                                                              Net flows
North America
                                                                                                                                                           37.8
experienced                                                                                                                            0.5      2.3
                                                                                                                               0.3
net outflows for                                                                                                                       -0.2       -0.2
                                                                                                                      0.4    2.0
the first time
since 2011                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                    3.7

                                                                                                 -0.2    2.2
                                           26.9               0
                                                                                      2.4         0.2
                                                         -4.9
                                                                          3.2           -0.6

                                                                                 0
                                      Year-end          2008         2009            2010      2011     2012       2013     2014     2015      2016       Year-end
                                      2007 AUM                                                                                                            2016 AUM

                   Net flows as
                   percentage of                          0.0             -0.1       -2.5      -0.8      0.1        1.2     0.9      1.5       -0.5
                   beginning-of-year
                   AUM
                         1
                             United States and Canada
                   Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
6                                                                                                      The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

Exhibit 2

Profit margins in                                                                                                                                                               Net revenues/AUM
                                                                                                                                                                                Basis points
North American
asset                                                                                                                                                                             39    38
                                                                                                                                                                                               35     36     37     38    39      38     37    37

management
                       Operating profit
declined for the       Percent of revenues

second year                                                                        31     31
                                                                                                 33
                                                                                                        30
                                                                                                                                          32     33
                                                                                                                                                        31     30
                                                                             28                                                     29
                                                                                                                             28
running                               27
                                                               25     26
                                                                                                               22
                                                                                                                      27
                                                                                                                                                                                2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                Operating costs/AUM
                                                                                                                                                                                Basis points

                      2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                               27    27      28     27
                                                                                                                                                                                26      26                                 26    25     26      26

                                                                                                                                                                                2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
                    Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey

Exhibit 3

The pullback        North America net flow growth and revenue margin by asset class1

from active was                                                                                                                                                                               Passive             Active           Alternatives
                                                                                                                                                                                              Bubble size = 2016 AUM
equities focused
                                                           150
                                                                                                                                                      Public market
                      2016 revenue margin (basis points)

                                                           145
                                                                                                           Active                                     alternatives
                                                               60
                                                               55                                          specialty
                                                                                                           equity                                                                                                        Active specialty
                                                               50                                                                                             Multi-asset                                                fixed income
                                                               45
                                                               40
                                                               35             Active
                                                               30             core                                                          Active core
                                                                              equity                                                        fixed income
                                                               25
                                                                                                                                                                                          Passive                 Passive
                                                               20
                                                                                                                                                                                          equity                  fixed
                                                               15                                                                                                                                                                      Passive
                                                                                                                 Passive                                                                                          income
                                                               10                                                                                     Money                                                                            other
                                                                                                                 multi-asset
                                                                5                                                                                     market
                                                                0
                                                                    -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0                                               1     2      3     4      5     6      7     8      9 10 11 12 13 14
                                                                                                                                                 2016 net flows (percent)

                                                           1
                                                               Active core equity includes US large cap and yield/income equity; active core fixed income includes core, core plus, and municipal bonds; active specialty equity includes foreign,
                                                               global, EM and US small/mid-cap; active specialty fixed income includes global, EM, high yield, TIPS, and unconstrained
                     Source: 2016 McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey and Global Growth Cube
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                               7

Exhibit 4

Pricing pressure   Percentage change in revenue margin, US asset managers, 2010-16

continued,           2010-13

but was
concentrated                                                                   -1
                                                                                                                              -5
                                                                                          -6
                                                                                                     -10
in passive                                      -11
                                                                     -14
                                                                                                                 -12
                                                           -21

                     2013-16                                                                                      15

                                                                                3          1
                                                                                                                               0
                                                  -5                                                  -6
                                                           -14

                                                                     -27

                                               Overall    Passive   Passive    Core    Specialty   Core fixed   Specialty Multi-asset
                                                          equity      fixed   equity    equity      income         fixed
                                                                    income                                       income
                   Source: Strategic Insight Simfund MF

                   plans in 2016) and more plans were                          siderable; over the past decade, passive
                   frozen and sponsors (particularly corpo-                    equities have taken in $1.4 trillion of flows
                   rate ones) considered derisking measures,                   while active equities shed $1.1 trillion.
                   and in some cases wholesale pension risk
                                                                               Although pricing pressure continued in
                   transfer arrangements. Political and
                                                                               2016, it was slightly less intense than in
                   macroeconomic uncertainty caused in-
                                                                               recent years (Exhibit 4). From 2013 to
                   vestors to stay on the sidelines.
                                                                               2016, revenue margins for mutual funds
                                                                               dropped a weighted average of 5 percent
                   Ongoing shifts in product and                               compared to a decline of 11 percent be-
                   pricing                                                     tween 2010 and 2013. This slight moder-
                   In 2016, the continued shift towards pas-                   ation in pressure was caused by the
                   sive investing was broad based, and                         concentration of pricing cuts in already
                   reached a new high-water mark, particu-                     low-priced passive categories as a num-
                   larly in equities (Exhibit 3). Specialty fixed              ber of major providers made aggressive
                   income, multi-asset, and private markets                    moves to gain share. Also mitigating pric-
                   were the only active categories that                        ing pressure was a shift in favor of some
                   gained share in 2016. The cumulative im-                    higher-margin products (e.g., towards in-
                   pact of the product shifts has been con-                    ternational equities in the core equity cat-
8                                                                             The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

    Exhibit 5

    Costs continued                 Estimated total North American industry costs by function,
                                    traditional asset management industry only (excludes alternatives AUM)                                                                 CAGR
    to grow, with                   $ billion                                                                                                                              2007-16
                                                                                                                                                                           Percent
    the highest                                                                                                                                                  83         3
                                                                                                                                                      80
    percentage                                                                                                                           76
                                                                                                                    71                                16         17         6
    increases in                                                                              67
                                                                                                                   14
                                                                                                                                         15
                                                           100 = 62
    distribution,                   Sales and                          10                     14
                                    marketing
    O&T, and legal/                                                                                                                      30
                                                                                                                                                      30         30         2
                                    Investment                                                                     29
    compliance/risk                 management                         26                     27
                                    Operations and
                                    technology                                                                                                        15         17         6
                                                                                                                   13                    14
                                    Legal, compliance                   9     1               12                                                 3          3          3
                                                                                                     2                     3                                                8
                                    and risk
                                    Management,                                                                                          14           16         16         1
                                                                       15                     12                   13
                                    administration
                                    and other                       2007                   2012                  2013                 2014           2015       2016

                                             Cost/AUM
                                                                      26                     27                    26                    25           26         26
                                             Basis points

                                    Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube; McKinsey Performance Lens Global Benchmarking Survey

                                    egory). Specialty fixed income, for exam-                                               that had not found traction with clients.
                                    ple, was the biggest winner, boosting                                                   The result was a proliferation of “orphan
                                    revenue margins by a healthy 15 percent                                                 funds” that created both operational
                                    from 2013 to 2016.                                                                      complexity and a crowded field of funds
                                                                                                                            chasing the same flows. Last year

                                    Product proliferation: Some early                                                       marked a turning point. For the first time

                                    signs of a turning tide                                                                 since 2009, asset managers focused on
                                                                                                                            rationalizing their product portfolios, re-
                                    Also notable in 2016 was the reversal of
                                                                                                                            sulting in 166 more funds being closed or
                                    the product proliferation that took root
                                                                                                                            merged than opened.
                                    during the industry’s postcrisis recovery.
                                    As we pointed out in our previous report,1                                              But we are in the early stages of this cull.
                                    the industry embarked on a wave of                                                      In the US market alone, there are more
                                    product growth over the past five years in                                              than 11,000 funds—roughly 50 percent
                                    response to client demands for new                                                      more than all the stock market listings for
                                    types of exposures, particularly multi-                                                 individual securities. In an age when retail
                                    asset strategies, smart beta, and income                                                intermediaries and institutional clients
                                    solutions. Where the industry has been                                                  alike are gravitating towards “fewer but
1
    Thriving in the New Abnormal,
    McKinsey & Company, 2016.       less responsive is in culling smaller funds                                             more strategic relationships” and product
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                          9

platforms are curated with more preci-           flowing. Operations and technology grew
sion, we expect this rationalization of          at a similar 6-percent rate as managers
products to continue. It may, in fact, ac-       rushed to add new systems and
celerate as industry pressures drive man-        processes to deal with an increasingly
agers to repackage their offerings into          complex world of products (e.g., multi-
more efficient (and in some cases less           asset strategies) and distribution (e.g.,
profitable) vehicles such as separately          greater focus on CRM and digital market-
managed accounts (SMAs), institutional           ing). Finally, legal and compliance spend-
share classes, and clean shares that             ing ratcheted up at the fastest rate (about
place less of a tax on performance.              8 percent per year) as asset managers
                                                 dealt with the complexities of expanded

Costs remain stubbornly high                     product portfolios and diverse regulatory
                                                 challenges, ranging from new fiduciary
At the same time, costs have continued to
                                                 standards from the US Department of
increase at a steady pace (Exhibit 5). De-
                                                 Labor and new MiFID 2 rules that demand
spite the much-vaunted notion of leverage
                                                 transparency around research costs.
within the industry’s operating model (put
simply, a manager should be able to man-         The industry snapshot at the end of 2016
age double the volume of assets without          was one of positive economic perform-
getting anywhere close to doubling costs),       ance (about 30-percent operating mar-
the average cost of managing a dollar of         gins) but with mounting challenges as a
assets has remained remarkably constant          shift to passive, broader pricing pressures,
at about 26 basis points despite a $10.9         and low levels of organic growth com-
trillion addition of AUM to the industry         bined with stubbornly high operating
over the past ten years.                         costs to weigh down the industry’s prof-
                                                 itability. The second consecutive year of
Since 2007, the North American industry’s
                                                 deteriorating operating margins even in
cost base has increased by $21 billion.
                                                 the face of market growth (from 33 per-
Growth has been concentrated in three
                                                 cent in 2014 to 30 percent in 2016) was
areas. Sales and marketing grew at an an-
                                                 perhaps the most powerful sign that the
nual rate of 6 percent driven in a large part
                                                 North American industry has reached a
by a small-scale “arms race” in distribu-
                                                 turning point. The all-too-familiar secular
tion over the past five years as managers
                                                 trends that we have discussed at length
expanded their sales forces to capture
                                                 are coming to a head in a way that makes
flows in a market that was growing and
                                                 business as usual a losing approach.
10                  The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

Mind the gap
         Mind the gap: A
         widening performance
         spread and an

widening perf
         impending shakeout

      The dominant narrative for the asset management industry
      has been that we are entering the worst of times: low re-
      turns, lower flows, pricing pressure, performance chal-
      lenges, a massive shift to passive, stubbornly increasing
      costs, and margin compression. A look at the aggregate
      performance of the North American asset management in-
      dustry confirms this downbeat view.

      However, while industry averages can provide a sense of
      broad direction, they can also mislead. In an intensely com-
      petitive talent-driven industry such as asset management,
      few firms are actually “average.” By digging deeper, be-
      neath the headline numbers, we can explore asset man-
      agement dynamics at the level of individual managers.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                         11

                   What the numbers really say                      Even in the severely challenged active

p:
                   Contrary to the conventional wisdom that         equities space, top-performing managers

                   all is doom and gloom across the indus-          are finding ways to thrive.

                   try, a deeper analysis identifies a massive      What makes averages even more mis-
                   spread in performance across the indus-          leading in this environment is that the
                   try and a group of asset managers that is        performance gap between winners and
                   doing exceptionally well (Exhibit 6). Ac-        losers is widening (Exhibit 7). Our propri-
                   cording to McKinsey’s proprietary bench-         etary benchmarking data shows that the
                   marking data of 100 managers in North

 f
                                                                    gap has been creeping upwards for sev-
                   America (covering 80 percent of AUM), in         eral years but is now accelerating as
                   2016, the top quartile of managers grew          some asset managers adapt more nimbly
                   revenue at 5 percent, above the -2-per-          to the new environment than others.
                   cent average of the industry and enjoyed         Today the difference in operating margins
                   highly attractive operating margins at or        between the top- and bottom-quartile
                   above their historical highs.                    managers stands at a remarkable 42 per-
                                                                    centage points (51 percent versus 9 per-
                                                                    cent), compared to three years ago (51
                                                                    percent versus 15 percent).
     The increasing gap between the top
                                                                    The increasing gap between the top and
     and bottom of the industry suggests                            bottom of the industry—set against the
     that a shakeout is all but inevitable.                         challenging secular trends laid out in the
                                                                    last section—suggests that a shakeout is
       The question is how and at what
                                                                    all but inevitable. The question is how
     pace this reshuffling of league tables                         and at what pace this reshuffling of in-
                                                                    dustry league tables will take place.
                will take place.
                                                                    Size is not destiny

                   In other words, for some managers, it is         What exactly will the contours of the
                   actually the best of times. Clients are          shakeout look like? This is another area
                   hungry for yield and open to innovation,         where we depart from the conventional
                   shifts in asset allocation are setting an        wisdom. There is an argument taking root
                   unprecedented amount of money into               in the industry that the current environ-
                   motion, lower-performing players are             ment is making it harder and harder to
                   being eliminated, technology is creating         succeed as a smaller manager, and that
                   new sources of competitive advantage,            we are moving to an era when the giants
                   and trillions of dollars of unmanaged as-        will take all. A related argument states
                   sets are up for grabs. In short, there is a      that being medium sized is particularly
                   massive opportunity to gain market share.        perilous, the assumption being that many
12                                                                 The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

Exhibit 6

Top performers
in North America      Operating margin, 2016
                      Percent
sustained             65
                                                                                         Survey average = -2%

meaningful            60
                      55
revenue growth        50
                      45
at highly             40
                      35
                                                                                                                                                               Survey
attractive            30                                                                                                                                       average
                      25                                                                                                                                       = 30%
operating             20
                      10
margins                5
                       0
                      -15
                         -30            -25               -15        -10             -5            0           5        10    15           20   30          65

                                                                                                                                        2016 revenue growth
                                                                                                                                                     Percent

                      Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey

Exhibit 7

Growth                          Operating margin
                                Percent
                                                                                         Long-term net flows/
                                                                                         beginning-of-year AUM
                                                                                                                               Revenue growth
                                                                                                                               Percent
headwinds                                                                                Percent
                       2016
affected the entire                      52
North American                                           30
industry, but the                                                          9
                                                                                               4                                       5
                                                                                                                                                             -9
bottom quartile                                                                                            0          -11                            -2

was hit                                Top           Average          Bottom                 Top       Average     Bottom            Top        Average   Bottom
                                     quartile                         quartile             quartile                quartile        quartile               quartile
particularly hard
                       2015
                                         48

                                                         31

                                                                         13                   11                                      13
                                                                                                           0          -9                             2      -10

                                       Top           Average          Bottom                 Top       Average     Bottom            Top        Average   Bottom
                                     quartile                         quartile             quartile                quartile        quartile               quartile

                      Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Benchmarking Survey
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                                                        13

                  such firms are “stuck in the middle”—that                                    while the “average” asset managers with
                  is, they lack the scale to operate effi-                                     $50 million to $150 million in AUM had the
                  ciently and are too broad to claim special-                                  lowest operating margins at 26 percent,
                  ized status. And, once again, when you                                       the top quartile of managers in that group
                  look at the averages, this outlook seems                                     had margins of 39 percent, beating out
                  to have some merit. Medium-sized firms                                       most other managers of all sizes. Similarly,
                  with $50 to $300 billion AUM suffered, on                                    while the “average” small manager ap-
                  average, a 5-percent margin gap relative                                     peared to operate at a structural disadvan-
                  to large firms, and a 3-percent gap rela-                                    tage to the biggest in the industry, the
                  tive to smaller focused boutiques.                                           top-quartile performers in this size band
                                                                                               were the best performers across the board.
                  But our granular analysis shows clearly
                  that size is not destiny (Exhibit 8). There                                  If firm size was not a reliable predictor of
                  were vast differences in performance                                         success, which variables better forecast
                  within each size category, at a scale that                                   success? Our analysis of the over 2,000
                  dwarfed the differences across size cate-                                    metrics that we track on individual man-
                  gories. There were high-performing                                           agers uncovered multiple routes to suc-
                  medium-sized firms, as well as large and                                     cess. But what each leading firm had in
                  small firms that struggled. For example,                                     common, was above-average “product

Exhibit 8

Size does not     Profit margin by firm size, AUM, 2016
                  Percent
dictate success     On average, scale seems to offer a 5-point                    Averages lie                                                  Top quartile
in North            margin advantage
                                                                                                                                                Average
                                                                                                                                                Bottom
American asset                                                                                                                                  quartile

management                                                                          43                                                           44
                                                                             38                     39                           38                   38
                                                                 36                                                                   36
                                                                                                                  33
                         30                                                               30                                               31
                                                   28                                                                  28                                  28
                                      26                                                                 26
                                                                                               24                           24

                                                                                                              8

                       $1                  $1
                       billion     billion-      billion- billion- trillion              billion     billion-       billion-      billion-         trillion
                                    $150         $300 $1 trillion                                     $150           $300            $1
                                   billion       billion                                             billion        billion       trillion
                                           Firm size, AUM                                                     Firm size, AUM

                  Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Benchmarking Survey
14                                            The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

                     scale”—that is, the degree to which the          dominance. There was no shame in rid-
                     individual firm scaled one or more major         ing the coattails of emerging industry
                     asset classes/strategy areas and then ex-        trends; in fact, it was essential to outper-
                     ecuted with focus. Specifically, profitabil-     formance in many cases.
                     ity leaders drove close to 40 percent of
                                                                      Meanwhile, the firms that struggled were
                     their funds to a scale above $1 billion,
                                                                      those that resisted these trends, or took
                     compared to an average of 17 percent
                                                                      only token steps to build new capabilities.
                     for the rest of the industry. Highly suc-
                                                                      In many cases, they tried to play in multi-
                     cessful firms built the conviction to mobi-
                                                                      ple areas to hedge their bets, but lacked
                     lize enterprisewide resources towards a
                                                                      the conviction to invest in these busi-
                     focused set of well-defined growth priori-
                                                                      nesses adequately or cull underperform-
                     ties. This resource allocation was not just
                                                                      ing areas that diverted management
                     a question of dollars and headcount, but
                                                                      attention and dragged on profitability.
                     also included mindshare across every
                     functional area of the firm. This dynamic
                     was a predictable marker of success              Not the traditional M&A wave
                     whether a firm was a focused, single-            Our third conclusion on the likely trajec-
                     asset-class specialist or a broad-based          tory of the North American asset man-
                     multiproduct platform.                           agement industry is that consolidation
                                                                      will happen, but through a nontraditional
                                                                      set of channels. Conventional wisdom
                                                                      assumes that a new logic of scale is
       Some opportunistic mega deals will                             emerging across the board, that industry
       occur as larger financial institutions                         giants will take all, and that margin pres-
                                                                      sures will drive a search of economies of
      reshape their business portfolios. But                          scale. Some go so far as to predict that
     the bulk of consolidation will result from                       the pursuit of pure scale will lead to mas-
                                                                      sive consolidation through transformative
     more targeted acquisitions and lift-outs
                                                                      mega deals.
               of individual teams.
                                                                      We believe this logic of scale applies in
                                                                      some but not all parts of the industry; it
                                                                      is arguably well at work in the world of
                     Asset managers in the top right of the           passive, but less clear in active and al-
                     performance matrix—that is, those that           ternatives. To be sure, some mega deals
                     lead in terms of both margin and                 will occur opportunistically as larger fi-
                     growth—got there not just through fo-            nancial institutions continually reshape
                     cused execution in their areas of existing       their business portfolios. But the bulk of
                     strength, but also through meaningful in-        consolidation will result from more tar-
                     vestments in new industry growth trends          geted acquisitions and lift-outs of indi-
                     that sometimes threatened their areas of         vidual teams, undertaken to turbocharge
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                          15

the buildup of specialized capabilities in         that two underperforming managers
areas of industry growth (e.g., alterna-           can merge to become stronger is a
tives, multi-asset, ETFs). This process            myth based on the misguided pursuit of
will be complemented by a second con-              scale for scale’s sake. In reality, the
solidating force—the shuttering of strug-          sum of two negative numbers is a
gling managers unable to meet the                  larger negative number.
industry’s rising bar.                           ■ Transformative M&A is tough. To be
                                                   sure, the industry will see some large
An evolving industry structure                     acquisitions. But instead of being
In summary, we have reached four conclu-           driven by scale, these will more likely
sions about how the industry structure will        be opportunistic purchases made pos-
evolve in a world where performance gaps           sible when forward-thinking institutions
are rising between the best and the rest:          realign their own business portfolios.

■ The coming shakeout is real. In a highly
                                                   The reality is that transformative M&A at
                                                   this scale is challenging. Few institu-
   fragmented industry, where the per-             tions have the integration skills or the
   formance bar is rising and performance          wherewithal to radically restructure their
   gap is widening, and where clients are          operating model.

                                                 ■ Capability-driven M&A will dominate. To
   demanding “fewer but more strategic
   relationships,” poor performers will fall
                                                   align with the industry’s growth
   by the wayside. Many will simply close,
                                                   trends—to ride those coattails—com-
   not be acquired. A clearing out of the
                                                   panies need the right capabilities.
   bottom tier is virtually assured.

■ M&A is not always (or even usually) the
                                                   Sometimes these can be built in-house,
                                                   but many firms will opt to move faster
   answer. A wave of transformational              by purchasing smaller or medium-sized
   M&A to save those firms that are “stuck         firms with specialized capabilities.
   in the middle” is unlikely. The notion
16                   The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

An inconveni
         An inconvenient
         truth: The great
         redistribution of value

truth: The gre
      The shifting of the product mix in North American asset
      management is well recognized. What is less understood is
      how this shift is changing the equation between assets and
      revenues. Also less appreciated are the trends that could
      accelerate the shift over the next few years. In this chapter,
      we explore these evolving demand-side drivers and exam-
      ine how they are redistributing value across and within a
      number of “hot spots” in the industry.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                                                   17

                      Where’s the money going?                                                                has translated into a 9-percent revenue

                      Much attention has been focused on the                                                  share gain. The big losers in this dynamic

                      massive flows into passive. Market share                                                have been the traditional actively man-

                      of passive has indeed grown materially,                                                 aged asset categories, which have ceded

                      from 12 percent in 2010 to 18 percent in                                                9-percent share of the overall industry

                      2016. Yet, interestingly, passive’s share of                                            value pool (as measured by both assets

                      the industry revenues has remained con-                                                 and revenues).

                      stant at 3 percent as its growth has been
                      accompanied by (and arguably driven by)                                                 New orthodoxies will accelerate

e
                      aggressive price competition (Exhibit 9).                                               change
                      All but the largest players have struggled                                              To date, this transition has occurred in a
                      to convert this significant asset growth                                                gradual and steady manner. However, we
                      into meaningful revenue and profit growth.                                              believe this shift in value pools is about to
                      Meanwhile, multi-asset strategies and al-                                               accelerate, as investors embrace two
                      ternatives have both grown in parallel,                                                 trends that have been steadily gaining
                      collectively grabbing an additional 7-per-                                              credence and momentum (Exhibit 10,
                      cent share in AUM since 2010; due to                                                    page 18). This philosophical change will
                      their higher margins, this gain in assets                                               alter the investing paradigm.

    Exhibit 9

    Passive’s share   North America assets and revenues, 2010-16
                      Percent
    of North            Total industry assets                                                    Total industry revenues                        Passive

    American                                                                                          3        3     3    3    3    3    3
                                                                                                                                                Active core
                                                                                                                                                Active
                             12       12       14      15       16       17
    revenues has                                                                 18
                                                                                                     21       20     20   19   18   18   17     specialists
                                                                                                                                                Multi-asset
    remained                                                                                                                                    Alternatives
                             30       30       29      26                                                                                       Money market
    constant                                                    26       26      25
                                                                                                                                         27
                                                                                                                          31   30   28
                                                                                                     32       31     30

                             28       27       27      28       26       25      24                                                 13   14
                                                                                                              10     10   11   12
                                                                                                      9

                              8        9       9       11       12       12      13
                                                                                                     34       35     36   36   36   37   38
                             10       11       11      11                12
                                                                12               12

                             11       11       10       9        8       8        8                  1        1      1                   1
                                                                                                                          0    0    0
                            2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016                                      2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

                      Source: 2016 McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey and Global Growth Cube
18                                                               The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

                 ■ Risk-based portfolio construction. In-                                                      ■ Factor investing. Factor investing
                      vestors are increasingly recognizing                                                           seeks to go beyond broad market-
                      the limitations of traditional asset al-                                                       capitalization-weighted indices like the
                      location strategies, which use rigidly                                                         S&P 500 or the Barclays Aggregate
                      defined asset-class buckets and can                                                            Bond Index to identify a more granular
                      mask underlying risk exposures. By                                                             set of performance drivers, whether it
                      reframing the portfolio construction                                                           be macroeconomic growth, currency
                      process in terms of different types of                                                         fluctuations, momentum, or something
                      risk exposures (e.g., corporate, inter-                                                        else. Factors are the cornerstone of a
                      est rates, inflation) instead of types of                                                      passive investment strategy—so-
                      asset classes, these new approaches                                                            called “smart beta”—that has been
                      are blurring the boundaries between                                                            rapidly gaining traction with investors
                      asset classes, creating competition                                                            in recent years by providing a more
                      across previously distinct categories                                                          finely calibrated set of portfolio build-
                      (e.g., private equity in the place of                                                          ing blocks.
                      some public equities; and the use of                                                           Interestingly, factor-based investing
                      multi-asset strategies instead of fixed                                                        challenges both active management
                      income for some income generation).                                                            (because a good portion of “alpha” is

Exhibit 10

Risk budgeting     Risk factor-based asset allocation                                                            Factor investing

and factor                            Defensive                            Inflation protected
                                                                                                                                                Active mandates
investing gain                        Special opportunity                  Company exposure
                                                                                                                                                Tactical asset allocation
followers               100
                                 2
                                                                Cash                                                                            Security selection
                                                                US bonds                                                                        Market timing
                          6                                     Foreign bonds                                                     Alpha
                                                                (currency hedged)
                          18                                                                                                                    Factor tilts/overlays
                                                                Real estate                                                                     Value
                                                                Infrastructure
                                                                US TIPS                                                                         Size
                                                                                                                                Alternative
                         21                                                                                                     risk premia     Yield
                                                                Absolute return
                                                                                                                                                Quality volatility
                                                                Real return
                                                                Distressed debt                                                                 Momentum
                                                                Mezzanine debt
                                                                Structured credit                                                               Market exposure
                         53                                     Other opportunities
                                                                                                                                  Beta          Strategic asset allocation
                                                                Global credit                                                                   Cap-weighted indices
                                                                Global equity
                                                                Private equity

                    Asset classes become more fungible with explicit                                              Sources of active returns are more easily replicable
                    discussions on cross-asset-class trade-offs                                                   with value add over passive indices

                 Source: APFC website; Pensions & Investments; McKinsey’s 2011 Institutional Investor Benchmarking Initiative
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                   19

                          attributable to exposure to these fac-              Three hot spots where the
                          tors rather security selection) as well             redistribution of value will play out
                          as passive management (because                      with intensity
                          classic passive management ignores                  The redistribution of value is occurring
                          these factors).                                     and accelerating broadly across the in-
                     Together, these two ideas represent a                    dustry and asset classes, but we have
                     revolutionary shift in investment ortho-                 identified three areas where shifts are oc-
                     doxy with real implications on product                   curring with particular intensity, and
                     demand. As they gain acceptance with a                   where competitive dynamics and industry
                     broad set of investors, asset classes will               structure are likely to undergo important
                     become increasingly fungible; meanwhile                  changes over the next five years:
                     the bright line between active and pas-
                                                                              Hot Spot 1: Traditional active strate-
                     sive investing will become increasingly
                                                                              gies (particularly equities)
                     blurred as smart beta utilizes both active
                     and passive methods of investing. The                    To put it bluntly, 2016 was a challenging
                     net result will be an increased level of                 year for traditional active investing, much
                     competition not just within individual                   worse than 2015, which itself was no
                     asset classes, but also across them.                     banner year (Exhibit 11). The pain was

Exhibit 11

2016 was a         Outperformance of US domestic active equities funds, 2015 versus 2016                     2015      2016
                   Percent of funds outperforming passive
challenging year
                                    Growth                     Value                           Blend
for equities
                                             49                          37                            28       25
                   Large                          30                                20

                                             41                          54                            42
                                                  31                                                            25
                   Medium                                                           20

                                                  29                     67                                     50
                                             22                                                        37
                   Small                                                            15

                   Source: Morningstar
20                                       The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

                  felt across almost every major active eq-      Our results pointed to a good news/bad
                  uity strategy. The number of large-            new story.
                  growth funds outperforming passives fell
                                                                 First, the good news. Our research iden-
                  from 49 percent in 2015 to 30 percent in
                                                                 tified five enduring sources of value
                  2016, the number of medium-sized-
                                                                 within active management over the 20-
                  value funds outperforming dropped from
                                                                 year period that undercut the gloomy
                  54 percent to 20 percent, and the num-
                                                                 prognoses commonly applied to the en-
                  ber of small-value funds outperforming
                                                                 tire active management industry:
                  plummeted from 67 percent to 15 per-
                  cent. Small-cap equity funds somewhat          ■ Institutional strategies. More than 70
                  bucked the trend, with several cate-              percent of these strategies outper-
                  gories improving their performance. And           formed passive equivalents by up to
                  fixed income were the major outlier, with         100 basis points on a through-cycle
                  76 percent of intermediate bond funds             basis. Several structural factors likely
                  for example outperforming their passive           contributed to this outperformance:
                  equivalents, up from 29 percent in 2015.          fee efficiency of vehicles and robust
                                                                    governance of institutional mandates.

                                                                 ■ Specialized active. Specialized sub-
                                                                    asset classes (e.g., small cap, inter-
     Our research identified five enduring
                                                                    national, emerging markets) have
        sources of value within active                              generated long-term positive returns
        management over the 20-year                                 up to 200 basis points over passive.
                                                                    In this case, lower market efficiency
       period that undercut the gloomy                              (e.g., imperfect information, illiquidity)
     prognoses commonly applied to the                              enabled managers with superior skill
                                                                    to generate sustained returns.
     entire active management industry.
                                                                 ■ Top-performing managers. Top-tier
                                                                    managers provided sustained added
                                                                    value even in mainstream asset
                  With this continued underperformance              classes, delivering more than 100
                  of traditionally managed active assets            basis points over passive on average
                  and clients’ increasingly hardening atti-         over the last ten years.

                                                                 ■ High-dispersion markets. Macroenvi-
                  tudes towards certain classes of actively
                  managed assets in mind, we conducted
                                                                    ronments mattered, but success was
                  an in-depth study of value creation in
                                                                    less tied to bull markets or bear mar-
                  active management using 20 years of
                                                                    kets and more to periods of volatility
                  granular North American performance
                                                                    during which the price trajectories of
                  data to better understand the facts on a
                                                                    individual securities varied signifi-
                  through-the-cycle basis and gain a per-
                                                                    cantly. In aggregate, active strategies
                  spective on what the future might hold.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                                                                                                  21

                   outperformed passive by 100 to 300                                                         investors over the past 20 years through
                   basis points in high-dispersion envi-                                                      chronic and consistent underperfor-
                   ronments; this held true across both                                                       mance (Exhibit 12). The size of this asset
                   bull and bear market environments.                                                         pool is not insignificant. Of the $17.1 tril-

              ■ Quality manager selection. Individual                                                         lion of actively managed equities and

                   managers themselves go through peri-                                                       fixed income in 2017, $5 trillion is man-

                   ods of overperformance and underper-                                                       aged by funds that have underperformed

                   formance, driven by a range of                                                             their benchmarks for four or more con-

                   idiosyncratic factors. Manager selec-                                                      secutive years. And another $3.8 trillion

                   tion matters; and our research sug-                                                        is managed by funds with such consis-

                   gests that the ability to make the right                                                   tently paltry levels of outperformance that

                   choices can create a 1.5-times multi-                                                      investors might reasonably ask: “Why

                   plier over and above the performance                                                       bother?”

                   of underlying funds.                                                                       Based on these findings, we expect that
              Now the bad news. There is some validity                                                        the closing and merging of laggards,
              to the charges leveled by the harshest                                                          which picked up pace last year, will con-
              critics of active management. Portions of                                                       tinue. This winnowing will result in a
              the industry have destroyed value for end                                                       smaller, better-performing active industry.

Exhibit 12

A Darwinian   Total traditionally managed active assets, equities and fixed income only, 2017
              $ trillion
moment for
                                                                                                                                                                                     Retail
                             ~17.1                                    ~5.0
some active                                                                                                                                                                           Institutional
management                                                            ~3.7

segments?                     ~9.0                                    ~1.3                                     ~3.8

                                                                                                               ~2.8
                                                                                                                                                       ~8.3
                                                                                                               ~1.0                                    ~2.5

                              ~8.1
                                                                                                                                                       ~5.8

                    Active equities                             “Chronic                                Lower value-add                           “High-quality
                   and fixed income                         underperformers”1                               funds2                                    core”

                                                                         Highly contestable assets

                    1
                        Funds which had
22                                                                The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

Exhibit 13

Leaders in          2016 net flows for US active equity by fund                              2016 net flows for US active fixed income by fund
                    $ million (N = 2,621 funds)                                              $ million (N = 2,087 funds)
active have
been winning         18,000                                                                   18,000
                     15,000                                                                   15,000
new flows            12,000                                                                   12,000
                       9,000
                                                                                               9,000
                       6,000
                                                                                               6,000
                       3,000
                                                                                               3,000
                              0
                     -3,000                                                                          0

                     -6,000                                                                   -3,000
                     -9,000                                                                   -6,000
                    -12,000                                                                   -9,000
                    -15,000                                                                  -12,000
                                                                                             -15,000

                     922 funds (35%) generated ~$139 billion of                              1,157 funds (55%) generated ~$258 billion of
                     positive flows, with top 20 generating ~37% of that                     positive flows, with top 20 generating ~34% of that

                  Source: Simfund

Exhibit 14

A value           Institutional investor perceptions of alternative asset classes, 2013-16
                  Percent
migration in         Hedge funds                                                   Private equity                                     Fallen short of
                                                                                                                                      expectations
alternatives as                                                                        11            8        6         5             Met
investors shift            16                                                                                                         expectations
                                            35               33                                                                       Exceeded
to the private                                                                                                                        expectations

markets                                                                   66
                                                                                                             64
                                                                                                                       71
                                                                                                     75
                           63                                                          78

                                            57               58

                                                                          31

                                                                                                             30        24
                           21
                                                                                       13            17
                                             8                9           3
                          2013            2014             2015          2016         2013          2014    2015      2016

                  Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2013-16
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                         23

                                   But rumors of the death of active are           compasses. And the category’s coher-
                                   greatly exaggerated. Indeed, this Darwin-       ence is coming under further stress as a
                                   ian moment for the active industry cre-         wide performance gap emerges between
                                   ates tremendous opportunity for                 the public alternative market (that is,
                                   high-performing managers that can de-           hedge funds) and private alternative mar-
                                   liver, and for those that restore value to      kets, which is whetting investors’ ap-
                                   their offerings through repricing and more      petite for the latter.
                                   efficient vehicles.
                                                                                   And this “liquidity transformation” in favor
                                   A granular look at industry averages for        of private markets is a logical response to
                                   2016 indicates that a move to quality,          performance. Since the global financial
                                   high-performing managers is already tak-        crisis in 2008 and 2009, the hedge fund
                                   ing place (Exhibit 13). Amidst an overall       industry has suffered from structural chal-
                                   picture of active outflows, the top active      lenges in the form of low rates and seem-
                                   funds are actually enjoying great success.      ingly unidirectional markets. In every year
                                   On the fixed-income side, for example,          since 2009, a diversified portfolio of
                                   55 percent of 1,157 funds generated             hedge funds has underperformed a stan-
                                   about $258 billion of positive flow in          dard 65-percent equities/35-percent
                                   2016. The top 20 funds generated 34             fixed-income portfolio—and in a number
                                   percent of this total.                          of years by double-digit percentages. The
                                                                                   converse has been true of the private
                                   Hot Spot 2: A liquidity transformation
                                                                                   markets, with private equity meaningfully
                                   within alternatives
                                                                                   outperforming the 65/35 portfolio over
                                   Over the past several years, we have            that same period.
                                   written extensively about the rise of alter-
                                                                                   Once the darling of the alternative in-
                                   native investments, driven by client needs
                                                                                   vestment category, the hedge fund in-
                                   (e.g., meeting pension liabilities) and a
                                                                                   dustry is now facing existential
                                   challenging external environment (e.g.,
                                                                                   questions as it seeks to position itself for
                                   low rates, low returns). By and large our
                                                                                   a new environment. A number of large
                                   expectations have played out correctly,
                                                                                   institutional investors have openly ques-
                                   with alternatives becoming a $7.5 trillion
                                                                                   tioned the role of these strategies in
                                   industry, accounting for approximately
                                                                                   their portfolios, either cutting back on
                                   $2.3 trillion of new money entering the in-
                                                                                   capital allocations or in some cases re-
                                   dustry over the past five years.2
                                                                                   moving the entire category from their in-
                                   But that aggregate growth masks a               vestment programs. These factors,
                                   meaningful shift within the alternatives        along with the closing of several large
                                   category (Exhibit 14). “Alternatives” has       funds, led to a turning point in 2016. For
                                   always been somewhat of a misleading            the first time since the financial crisis,
                                   name for the breadth of strategies, styles,     the hedge fund industry shrank in ab-
2
    Inclusive of private markets
    fundraising.
                                   and risk-return profiles that the term en-      solute terms, with outflows of $70 billion
24                                               The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

                   and an uptick in fund closures (Exhibit                of challenges: a tough macroenvironment
                   15). While aggregate flows have picked                 (e.g., low rates, regulatory uncertainty,
                   up again in 2017 and returns have                      buoyant markets, and crowded trades);
                   bounced back, the industry has contin-                 the rise of factor investing, which—be-
                   ued to face growth headwinds given                     cause it granularly assesses value and
                   skeptical investors with an ever broader               risk factors—has spawned low-cost
                   range of alternatives. Industry leaders                hedge fund replication strategies; and a
                   have been repositioning themselves in                  business model that is difficult to scale
                   this new environment with a range of in-               because of an overreliance on a handful
                   novations ranging from significant in-                 of skilled managers. These constraints
                   vestments in data, analytics, and                      can frustrate institutions that need to put
                   technology to create new sources of in-                massive amounts of capital to work.
                   vestment advantage to paradigm shifts
                                                                          Nevertheless, it is getting harder and
                   in pricing, with moves beyond the tradi-
                                                                          harder to be a small investor in this
                   tional 2/20 structure to 1/30 or even
                                                                          space. Recently, the bulk of flows have
                   0/20 to better position their propositions
                                                                          gone to the largest firms, and this trend
                   for low alpha environments.
                                                                          has continued through 2017. Thus, we
                   To be fair, the hedge fund industry has                believe industry consolidation—through
                   had to contend with a very diverse array               acquisitions and closure—will pick up

Exhibit 15

2016 was a         Net flows into the global hedge fund industry
                   $ billion
challenging year                          195

for the global                    127
hedge fund
                                                                           71                      76
industry                                                            56                     64
                                                                                                          44
                                                                                   34

                                                                                                                   -70

                                                           -131
                                                  -154

                                 2006    2007     2008      2009   2010   2011    2012    2013   2014    2015     2016
                   Flows
                   Percent       11.4   13.3      -8.3      -9.3   3.5     3.7    1.7     2.8     2.9    1.5      -2.4

                   Source: HFR
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                           25

pace. Survivors will pursue greater insti-       scale take-privates of companies; long-
tutionalization to better deliver quality in-    duration “core” funds that create patient
vestment products in a broader set of            capital; a greater willingness to play
formats. The most successful hedge               seamlessly across debt and equity; and
funds are already pursuing this strategy,        innovations such as special-purpose ac-
enabling them to monetize their skills and       quisition companies (SPACS), which raise
intellectual capital through a broader           large pools of capital to pursue single in-
range of channels.                               vestment themes.

Meanwhile, the outperformance in the pri-        The bottom line is that investors are
vate markets is hardly a secret and new          growing increasingly comfortable with the
money is rushing in. Private equity firms        category’s illiquidity as a way to diversify
hauled in $626 billion globally in 2016, re-     risk exposure and add value. We expect
visiting the highs set before the financial      that private-market alternatives will con-
crisis. And—in contrast to the belea-            tinue to attract a larger share of invest-
guered hedge fund industry—a number of           ments, and managers are likely to drive
notable large investors have signaled the        towards greater growth and scalability.
importance of their private-market pro-          We are also likely to see a growing num-
grams and significantly upped their allo-        ber of firms that position themselves as
cations. The surge in private-market             multistrategy platforms—effectively be-
demand is raising some red flags among           coming portals to access different invest-
market observers, who worry about future         ing alternatives and partners.
returns and if a bubble is forming. They
                                                 Hot Spot 3: The third act for ETFs
point to high valuations, intense competi-
tion from strategic investors, and high lev-     ETFs have continued their explosive
els of undeployed capital.                       growth, far exceeding any other major
                                                 asset class/vehicle, even overtaking their
The world of private-market investing is
                                                 passive equivalents in mutual funds and
indeed highly cyclical. But the surge in
                                                 the active strategies that they began dis-
demand should be viewed in the context
                                                 placing over twenty years ago (Exhibit 16,
of the industry’s significantly increased
                                                 page 26). There are now around 2,000
“surface area.” Ten years ago, private
                                                 ETF products with increasingly precise
markets referred almost exclusively to
                                                 exposures and themes.
developed markets’ private equity, but
the category is now much more geo-               The astounding growth—ETFs now control
graphically diverse, encompassing all            about 7 percent of all managed investment
things illiquid, such as credit, real estate,    products—has been driven by intense re-
and infrastructure. Also fueling growth in       tail demand for these low-cost, flexible in-
private markets are a wave of innovations        vestment instruments with intraday liquidity,
among industry leaders, including: fund-         particularly from their uptake in home of-
less-sponsor models that enable large-           fice portfolios, the rise of the rep-as-port-
26                                                                   The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

Exhibit 16

ETFs have           US market share of managed investment products1
                                                                                                                                    CAGR
almost                                                                                                                              Percent
                    32%                                                                                                             1993-      2000-     2009-
overtaken their     30%                                                                                                             2000       09        16
                    28%
passive mutual      26%
                    24%
fund equivalents    22%                                                                                                   ETFs        37       31         11
                    20%
                    18%
                    16%
                    14%
                    12%
                    10%                                                                                                   Passive     27        7         11
                     8%                                                                                                   mutual
                     6%                                                                                                   funds
                     4%
                     2%
                     0%
                       1985                1990             1995             2000               2005      2010   2015 April
                                                                                                                      2017
                          1
                              Includes long-term open-end funds, money market funds, and ETFs
                    Source: Strategic Insight

Exhibit 17

ETFs are            Individual stocks, long-term mutual funds, and ETFs – US household
                    financial asset mix
                                                                                                                                       Share year-end,
                                                                                                                                       2007-16
increasing the                                                                                                                         Percent
                                                                                                                                       2007    2016    Change
size of the asset   100%
                                                                                                                          ETFs             4   10      +6 % pts
management           90%

                     80%                                                                                                  Long-term    29      27      -2 % pts
market                                                                                                                    mutual
                     70%                                                                                                  funds
                     60%

                     50%

                     40%
                                                                                                                          Corporate    67       63     -4 % pts
                     30%                                                                                                  equity

                     20%

                     10%

                       0%
                        1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016
                          Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4
                    Source: Strategic Insight; Federal Reserve Flow of Funds; McKinsey Performance Lens
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                           27

                  folio-manager business model, and the            is sometimes used to characterize the in-
                  fast-growing “robo-advice” platforms.            terplay between active and passive. We
                                                                   expect, for example, that fixed-income
                  The growth of ETFs is often conflated
                                                                   ETFs will grow rapidly, filling an acute liq-
                  with the inroads that low-cost passive in-
                                                                   uidity and trading need caused by the
                  vesting has been making over active
                                                                   pullback of traditional market makers,
                  management. That’s part of the story, but
                                                                   which are trimming their bond inventories
                  this angle obscures the true potential of
                                                                   and cutting back on activity given regula-
                  ETFs. ETFs are not just grabbing share
                                                                   tory and capital challenges.
                  from active mutual funds, they are actu-
                  ally growing the total pie by winning new        The ETF market has also been evolving in
                  flows into asset management as a whole           terms of what it delivers to investors. To
                  (Exhibit 17). Between 2007 and 2017, a           be sure, most ETF demand continues to
                  full two-thirds of ETF growth (as a share        be in “bulk beta,” the cheapest, most
                  of household financial assets) came from         basic portfolio building blocks that track
                  attracting assets once held as individual        mainstream market-capitalization-
                  securities. In other words, ETFs are an          weighted indices (Exhibit 18). The pricing
                  investment “technology” that is growing          of these products is so low that only the
                  the total asset management market and            largest, most efficient managers have
                  breaking free of the zero-sum game that          been able to win, and often with the help

Exhibit 18

Bulk beta         Breakdown of US ETF AUM by strategy, 2016                                CAGR
                  Percent                                                                  2012-16
remains the                                                                                Percent
                                                                                            AUM       Revenue
mainstay of the   Active
                                    100% =   $2.6 trillion
                                                             1
                                                                     $6 billion
                                                                                  3
                                                                                             41          44
ETF industry      Smart beta                      11
                                                                        20                   30          27
                  Specialized                     18

                                                                        26                    7          -1

                  Bulk beta                       70

                                                                        52                   17          13

                                                AUM                  Revenue

                  Source: Simfund
28                                         The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

Exhibit 19

New ETF                     Hedge funds                                                          RIAs
                            Mutual funds                                                         Model portfolios
use cases                  Pension funds            Portfolio                 Market             Robo-advisors
                                                   management                exposure
are emerging

                                              Hedging                           Liquidity
                                                                               management

                         Trading desks                                                           Corporate treasuries
                Institutional investors                                                          Insurance companies
                                                                  Price                          Mutual funds
                                                                discovery

                                                           Market makers
                                                           Asset managers
               Source: McKinsey analysis

               of business models that deliver a set of               North American market. As more ETF
               ancillary revenue-generating services                  managers move to leverage factor invest-
               such as securities lending and product                 ing, competition will not just be about
               wrap fees. But, concurrently, the industry             price, but also about innovation and exe-
               has been innovating, and investors are                 cution. Indeed, the recent entry of several
               proving receptive to new products that                 traditionally active managers into the
               come at slightly higher cost. Two cate-                smart beta ETF space is a signal of the
               gories in particular, active ETFs and                  nature of competition to come.
               smart beta, have been growing faster
                                                                      Given the robust demand across almost
               than bulk beta (though off a low base).
                                                                      every part of the ETF market, our overall
               Active ETFs and smart beta experienced
                                                                      outlook for growth is strong. We expect
               compound annual AUM growth of 41 per-
                                                                      the industry to continue its double-digit
               cent and 30 percent respectively from
                                                                      growth over the next several years, pos-
               2012 to 2016. Bulk beta, in contrast,
                                                                      sibly becoming a $6 trillion market by
               grew at 17 percent over the same period.
                                                                      2021 (from $2.9 trillion in 2016).
               We expect that smart beta in particular
                                                                      Attaining this milestone will depend as
               will continue to be the focus of competi-
                                                                      much on innovation as it will on head-to-
               tion over the next few years as factor in-
                                                                      head market share gains against other in-
               vesting takes root in a greater way in the
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                                                 29

Exhibit 20

The industry         Systematizing the                                                                      Distribution scale and
                      investment edge                                                                       institutionalization
game board
is dynamic                                                   Hedge                         Private
                                                             funds                         markets
                                           Margin pressure

                                                                          Fixed income
                                                                               and                               Focus on solutions
                                                                           multi-asset

                                                              Active                       Passive
                                                             equities                     and ETFs

                                Survival of                                                                 Cost discipline
                                 the fittest                                                                and innovation
                                                                        Growth momentum

               Source: McKinsey analysis

               vestment vehicles. Leading ETF providers                           price pressures) with constant innovation
               need to broaden the use cases of their                             (given the importance of first-mover ad-
               products to grow the overall size of the                           vantage in new product areas as well as
               market (Exhibit 19). Already, institutions                         the ever-present threat of “fast followers”).
               are putting ETFs to use for a wider range
               of needs: for example, to equitize cash                            New competitive dynamics
               holdings (ironically, sometimes within ac-
                                                                                  The three major shifts outlined above il-
               tively managed funds), to hedge expo-
                                                                                  lustrate how the redistribution of value is
               sures in difficult-to-access markets, for
                                                                                  occurring broadly across the industry
               price discovery in thinly traded asset
                                                                                  and asset classes, creating fundamen-
               classes (e.g., corporate bonds), and even
                                                                                  tally different pools of value and new
               in corporate cash management.
                                                                                  competitive dynamics. The result is a
               Firms need to consider how to compete                              highly variegated industry “game board,”
               in this market. The scale economics of                             where margin and growth dynamics are
               ETFs differ from more traditional funds,                           exerting different pressures on different
               particularly in bulk beta, which is consoli-                       segments of the industry (Exhibit 20).
               dating and may come down to three to                               This creates a highly varied set of imper-
               four firms. Success will depend on com-                            atives. There is no one-size-fits-all pre-
               bining operational efficiency (to withstand                        scription for success.
30                    The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management

         A tale of two cities

A tale of two
      The observation that the North American asset manage-
      ment industry is at a pivotal moment is hardly novel. To say
      that the industry faces an unprecedented set of challenges
      is both so true and so accepted it has the ring of a cliché.
      In this report, we take this received wisdom as a starting
      point and cast an eye towards outcomes. And we argue
      that these outcomes for the industry come in the shape of
      a barbell. It is neither the best of times, nor the worst of
      times. It is both.
The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: North American Asset Management                          31

             Asset managers need to seize on the re-          sticking one’s head in the sand), but it is
             alities of this new environment, one of the      also incomplete. When firms focus too
             most fundamental of which is that the            heavily on the downside, they risk miss-
             majority of trends discussed here are            ing some of the biggest, most exciting
             deeply secular rather than cyclical. They        opportunities in the industry today.
             are not temporary fads that firms can ride
                                                              Disruption is setting an unprecedented
             out or adjust to with incremental changes.
                                                              amount of money into motion, as clients
             At the same time, asset managers need
                                                              shift assets in the hunt for yield. Industry
             to approach the futurewith the dual mind-
                                                              consolidation will put large swathes of
             set of both dealing decisively with new
                                                              market share in play. New technologies
             challenges but also seizing on the oppor-
                                                              are opening avenues to innovation across
             tunities that this new environment affords.
                                                              the asset management value chain and
                                                              could help forward-thinking firms capture
                                                              some of the trillions in unmanaged assets.

                                                              Two very different narratives are strug-
 When firms focus too heavily on
                                                              gling for ascendance in today’s asset
 the downside, they risk missing                              management industry. In the dominant
some of the biggest, most exciting                            (and pessimistic) narrative, asset man-
                                                              agement is moving inexorably towards
opportunities in the industry today.                          becoming a commodity industry, and
                                                              asset managers are transitioning towards
                                                              becoming cost managers. In the alterna-

             Embracing both the best and the                  tive narrative, asset managers can find

             worst of times                                   new relevance by delivering solutions,
                                                              and have a unique opportunity to position
             We believe the industry has been too
                                                              themselves as client-backed innovators.
             one-sided in its embrace of the “the
                                                              Deciding how to embrace and balance
             worst of times” narrative. To be sure,
                                                              these competing narratives is quite liter-
             there is real work to be done in restruc-
                                                              ally a matter of choosing a firm’s destiny.
             turing business models and product port-
             folios to improve resilience to industry
             pressures. But far too many managers            Five priorities
             have simply positioned themselves in a          In an industry undergoing significant
             defensive crouch, preparing for an ex-          change, there are multiple paths to suc-
             tended fight to hold onto their narrow          cess. Nonetheless, we believe that asset
             area of expertise and tightening their          managers who are successful in reposi-
             belts for a leaner future.                      tioning their businesses for continued
                                                             growth and profitability will embrace the
             In many cases, this approach is certainly
                                                             following five priorities:
             warranted (indeed it is far better than
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