The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group

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The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
A J O U R NA L O F C O M M U N I C AT I O N S A N D C O R P O R AT E R E L AT I O N S I S S U E 1 7 2 0 1 9

                                               Disinformation
                                             Economic Collapse
                                                Bankruptcy
                                             Populist Uprisings
                                                 Asteroids

                            The CRISIS Issue   Cyber Attacks
                                             Activist Challenges
                                                  Terrorism
                                             Gambling Addiction
                                               A Museum Saga

FEATURING: Timothy Geithner            • Neal Wolin • Baroness Shriti Vadera • Arianna Huffington
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
Brunswick is an advisory firm specializing in business
        critical issues and stakeholder relations
         To download and share Brunswick Review stories go to
                   www.brunswickgroup.com/crisis
                             You can follow us on Twitter
                                  @BrunswickGroup
                 Highlights from this and previous issues are
                         also available on LinkedIn

editor in chief Kevin Helliker
managing editor Carlton Wilkinson
creative director Frank Tagariello
deputy editor Edward Stephens
content production manager Laura Templer
                                              The Brunswick Review is printed on Cocoon
print production MerchantCantos
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printed by CPI Colour                         waste fibers and manufactured without the use of
cover illustration Jim Frazier                any secondary bleaching

feedback feedbackreview@brunswickgroup.com    Copyright © Brunswick Group LLP 2019
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
T
                                                 his edition of the brunswick review covers an area vital
                                                 for all leadership teams – crisis. Crises are great tests of leadership
                                                 that can appear from nowhere and consume huge amounts of time,
                                                 money and reputation. How can we avoid them, prepare for them,
                                                 deal with them and recover from them?
                                                    With crises now coming from every direction, we at Brunswick have
                                                 built specialist capabilities so that highly experienced experts in key ar-
                                    eas can join our core teams whenever our clients need them. Crisis, like bullfight-
                                    ing and surgery, has never been a great amateur activity. Expertise is critical in
                                    handling the most testing moments of one’s career. Our cyber and data, litigation,
                                    workplace conduct and other specialist teams bring our clients around the world
                                    the latest research and experience of what works and what doesn’t.
                                       “Crisis management” is an expression that rings alarm bells in Brunswick. To
                                    deal well with crises, you must understand that, by their very nature, they are not
                                    manageable. They are, however, survivable and usable. What an organization
                                    needs is the resilience to pull through and the flexibility not to waste the oppor-
                                    tunity a crisis presents to make important changes. A long list of companies have          SIR ALAN PARKER
                                    not just survived an existential crisis but used it to make changes that enhanced
                                                                                                                               CHAIRMAN,
                                    success. Starbucks, Nike and BP stand out.                                                 BRUNSWICK GROUP
                                       There are serious problems to be dealt with every day but, thankfully, not all
                                    turn into crises. Usually the triggering event surfaces underlying doubts about
                                    an organization’s values: “I never did trust them to … protect my data, protect
                                    my health, protect my safety, etc.” This can reinforce a belief or prejudice that the
                                    company is putting profits, share price and executive benefits before stakeholder
                                    interests. If this is the perception, then the organization has a reputational weak-
                                    ness that is the opposite of the resilience needed to survive. Most crises are ones of
                                    values. They test leadership motives as much as competence.
                                       In our experience, there are three essential elements of resilience. The first
                                    is trusted relationships with key stakeholders. These must be built beforehand.
                                    Trust, like friendships, is not something you want to put off building until a crisis
                                    begins. In Brunswick, we describe this as investing in reputational capital. This
                                    capital is tangible and can be measured in a number of ways. In a crisis, it will be
                                    drawn on heavily and challenged.
                                       The second is an issue of perspective: Can you see the problem the way oth-
                                    ers do? How does the customer see this issue or your organization? How does a
                                    member of staff, the regulator, or a shareholder see it? These conversations actu-
     TO DEAL WELL                   ally frame the narrative as to what the problem really is, which is often different
      WITH CRISES,                  from how it looks from inside. This ability to see it as others do is crucial or you
                                    will be accused of not “getting it” and of being out of touch with others’ values.
         YOU MUST                      You must be aware of your part in the bigger conversation. A manageable prob-
      UNDERSTAND                    lem can accelerate into a crisis if others use it to drive their wider agendas. The
                                    media can hype stories to create sales or clicks. On social media, anyone can seek
    THAT, BY THEIR                  to make use of your problem. Corporates can be drawn into ongoing debates
     VERY NATURE,                   about issues like plastics, pay, food safety. An organization prepared to join these
                                    conversations, and able to embrace diverse perspectives, will prove more resilient.
     THEY ARE NOT                      The third key element is the mindset of the leadership team. It is painful, fright-
    MANAGEABLE.                     ening, even maddening to see others’ versions of the truth, or outright untruth,
                                    drive coverage of an issue. Yet feelings of unfairness should not dominate the re-
        THEY ARE,                   sponse of leadership. Now is when you have to stand tall, say what you believe and
        HOWEVER,                    act in the most honorable way.
      SURVIVABLE,                      Crises are an opportunity for management to show its motives and priorities.
                                    You can, as the bumper sticker puts it, “be the person your dog thinks you are.”
      AND USABLE.                   With the right team, your natural resilience can come through. u

b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                                                             3
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
12
               QUOTES FROM THE ISSUE                                     TIMOTHY GEITHNER
          6    “Nothing good can come from a
               desire to appear infallible.”
                                                           As US Treasury Secretary he helped
                                                               avoid another Great Depression.
               – Former US Treasury Secretary                 But he says, “It was still a terrible
               Timothy Geithner                            crisis, with devasting human costs.”

               SPOTLIGHT SECTION
          7    Insights from Brunswick colleagues
               around the world
                                                                          THE CALL OF DUTY
                                                               Neal Wolin, CEO of Brunswick,
                                                            recalls leaving the private sector to
                                                                                                        17
               7T
                 ONY GARDNER, former US                        help President Obama and Mr.
                Ambassador to the EU, says unity is         Geithner battle the financial crisis.
                threatened on five sides.
               8P
                 LAN FOR THE UNFORESEEN
                Rob Webb offers a guide.
                9 WORKPLACE MISCONDUCT
                                                                BARONESS SHRITI VADERA
                                                              “It was about avoiding the 1930s          20
                                                                and the Great Depression.” The
                   Research shows leadership needs to          former UK government minister
                   demonstrate responsiveness.
                                                           talks to Brunswick’s Andrew Porter.
                	AFRICA ON SPEED DIAL
               10
                   Lessons from Ghana’s surge in
     10            mobile payments.

               BRUNSWICK CEO NEAL WOLIN
                                                                           KING OF THE ROAD
                                                                 Former Vice Chairman of GM
                                                               Robert Lutz talks about steering
                                                                                                        22
          11   The time to start preparing for crisis is
               not the moment that it strikes.
                                                                Detroit’s top automaker back to
                                                              profitability during the recession.
                                                                                                                                       22

4                                                                                       b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
THE CRISIS ISSUE

27         ADAM TOOZE: CRASHED
           The Columbia University historian on
           his definitive history of the 2008 crisis.
                                                                       TIN EARS AND TOP HATS
                                                             Andrew Porter and Stuart Hudson say
                                                             missteps worsened the 2009 expenses
                                                                                                            59
                                                                scandal that rocked UK Parliament.
           PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
29         New tools can help companies make
           use of the deluge of data that comes
           with a crisis.
                                                                                RESTORING TRUST
                                                                  Years of corruption have left South
                                                             Africa’s new leaders facing a steep road.
                                                                                                            61
30         THE EARNINGS CALL
           Brunswick research finds Fortune 100
                                                                                    READING ITALY
                                                                    Luciano Fontana, Editor in Chief        62
           companies are most likely to thumb                         of Corriere della Sera, remains
           their noses at convention.
                                                        36
                                                                   optimistic despite political chaos.

           THE COST OF LOST REPUTATION
34         Co-authors Howard Kunreuther and
           Michael Useem quantify the risk.
                                                                                       ZIA CHISHTI
                                                                   The billionaire tech entrepreneur        64
                                                                                 says AI is overrated.

           ARIANNA HUFFINGTON
36         Exhaustion and success are not
           compatible, says the founder of
                                                                BANKING ON A BETTER WORLD
                                                                    Sir Danny Alexander on how the          69
                                                               Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
           Huffington Post and Thrive Global. She
                                                                         has proven its critics wrong.
           tells us her plan to fix the workplace.

                                                                                JOSÉ LUIS BONET
40         BATTLE-TESTED
           Ex-Navy SEALs Jocko Willink and Leif
                                                        47
                                                               The Spanish Chamber of Commerce
                                                                 President tells us how the Catalan
                                                                                                            71
           Babin expect you to do better.
                                                               secession crisis impacts businesses.

42         JIMMY DUNNE III
           Sandler O’Neill lost over a third of its
           people on 9/11. Shadowed by a
                                                                                       COMPLEXITY
                                                                      A crisis is dynamic. Its handling     73
           reporter, his grief on full display, Mr.                                     should be too.
           Dunne, the only surviving senior
                                                                                TEST OF METTLE
           partner, vowed to save the firm.
                                                                  How a boardroom climate-change
                                                                 challenge at BHP Billiton built trust
                                                                                                            74
           DONATING TIME
46         Brunswick’s Chief People Officer on
           how a program to assist individuals can
                                                                                     with investors.

           build community.                                                HOW TO TAKE A JOKE
                                                                 Kansas City reaped a benefit from a
                                                                        cheap prank that went viral.
                                                                                                            77
47         CYBER CORNER
           47 RUDE AWAKENING
                  Brunswick research finds cyber-		                             ABSTRACT WOMEN
                  crime blame falls on the victim.
           50 TARGET OF DISINFORMATION
                                                               Author Mary Gabriel restores five US
                                                             painters to their rightful place in history.
                                                                                                            78
                  WilmerHale lawyers examine legal 		   54
                  recourses for fake news attacks.             BRUNSWICK ARTS: “SCAFFOLD”
                                                               How the Walker Art Center handled a          83
           UK: TERROR ATTACKS                                          crisis of historic proportions.
53         When discipline made a difference.

54         HOT SEAT
           Brunswick’s Maren Brooks lays out
                                                                                ASTEROID THREAT
                                                                  A large meteor strike is unlikely yet
                                                                          inevitable. What’s the plan?
                                                                                                            86
           lessons from her time as Director of                 The Review talks to the US Planetary
           the White House Situation Room.                                Defense Officer and others.

           GOOD GAME
56         William Hill CEO Philip Bowcock tells
           of his company’s ambition that
                                                                               CRITICAL MOMENT
                                                               A sharp rise in humanitarian aid from        90
                                                              businesses after a natural disaster has
           gambling harm no one.                        78                proven extremely effective.

b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                             5
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
“Nothing good can                  “To be honest with you,             “That tension and total          “There is a pretty serious
     come from a desire to             we could get hit by an object           awareness are hard            determination among most
       appear infallible.”                  that size without               to switch off. When I left          senior bankers to avoid
      TIMOTHY F. GEITHNER                 seeing it beforehand.”              in autumn 2009 I had              anything like that ever
    Former US Treasury Secretary              LINDLEY JOHNSON                  nightmares. It stays          happening again. Because
                12                      US Planetary Defense Officer, on            with you.”                 it’s humiliating. Nobody
     “The shortcut to not                the asteroid that exploded over     BARONESS SHRITI VADERA               wants to be Lehman
                                           Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013
   procrastinating is to do                                                   On the 2008 financial crisis       Brothers, game over.”
                                                        86                               20
what you’re supposed to do                                                                                           ADAM TOOZE
  when you’re supposed to                 “That’s why I’m richer            “Gambling is meant to be a             Columbia University
                                               than you.”                                                          economic historian
  do it. There’s no secret or                                              leisure activity, not a source                 27
trick or hack. It’s simple, but                  JAMIE DIMON                    of human misery.”
   it’s definitely not easy.”            CEO of JPMorgan Chase during
                                                                                 PHILIP BOWCOCK               “I’d made the decision to
                                              a 2013 earnings call                                            trust her in the same way
        JOCKO WILLINK                                                            CEO of William Hill
                                                      30
Corporate adviser, podcaster, author                                                     56                    I made a lot of decisions
    and retired US Navy SEAL                                                                                   at that moment – by the
                40                                                                                                 seat of my pants.”
    “After my collapse from                                                                                        JIMMY DUNNE III
     exhaustion and sleep                                                                                         CEO of Sandler O’Neill
                                                                                                                           42
    deprivation, I had to ask
     myself, was this what                                                                                      “There is no doubt the
     success looked like?”                                                                                   corporate community was
    ARIANNA HUFFINGTON                                                                                       slow to respond to growing
Author and entrepreneur, founder of                                                                             shareholder concerns
 Huffington Post and Thrive Global
                                                                                                                 on climate change.”
                36
                                                                                                                       PRU BENNETT
 “My whole job was to get                                                                                     Head of Investment Stewardship,
                                                                                                                Asia Pacific, for BlackRock
GM back to enthusiastically
                                                                                                                             74
designing and building the
  best product. Basically,                                                                                    “We’re big AI skeptics at
to get General Motors back                                                                                   Afiniti. We think it’s all kind
   into the car business.”                                                                                    of a bubble and a mania.”
          ROBERT LUTZ                                                                                                 ZIA CHISHTI
      Former Vice Chairman of                                                                                         Afiniti founder,
          General Motors                                                                                            Chairman and CEO
                22                                                                                                           64

                                                                SOUND
                                                                 BITES

                                                                                                                                                ILLUSTRATION: EDMON DE HARO

6
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
SP TLIGHT
                                                                                                                                                            Sharing insights
                                                                                                                                                            from Brunswick
                                                                                                                                                            colleagues around
                                                                                                                                                            the world on a
                                                                                                                                                            medley of topics.

                              T
                                                                          POPULISM
                                  here are (at least) five                                                                                                  unlikely to carry out a referendum
                                  reasons many European                                                                                                     on the euro or EU membership,
                                  policymakers see the rise of                                                                                              it has shown an eagerness to
                              populism as a key preoccupation                                                                                               confront the EU. That threat
                              for the next few years.                                                                                                       has reawakened fears in global
                                 First, the European elections                                                                                              financial markets about Italy’s
                              scheduled for May 2019 (a few                                                                                                 growing sovereign debt (€2.3
                              months following Brexit) may
                              upset the political balance,
                              resulting in a Parliament heavily
                                                                          TROUBLESOME SIGNS FOR THE EU                                                      trillion, more than 130 percent
                                                                                                                                                            of national GDP). Italian banks’
                                                                                                                                                            balance sheets could once again
                              influenced by nationalist and                FIVE TRENDS bode ill for               the European Commission’s (EC)            require strengthening if the
                              euro-skeptic forces. The center-             stability, says Brunswick’s            executive prerogatives by sending         sovereign debt value is written
                              right European People’s Party will           Tony Gardner.                          euro-skeptic commissioners to             down. The tension between Rome
                              remain the strongest but could be                                                   Brussels and stalling legislation.        and Brussels is also an unwelcome
ILLUSTRATION: FABIO CONSOLI

                              weakened. The center-left Alliance           underperforms anti-EU political        Member states may move ahead              distraction: Italy needs to reignite
                              of Socialists and Democrats will be          parties like Italy’s Northern League   with their own legislation such as        growth after more than a decade
                              significantly diminished, reflecting         and Five Star Movement.                digital sales tax, resulting in greater   of stagnation. If it fails in that
                              the collapse of socialist parties. The          A fractured European                EU market fragmentation.                  mission, the result may be greater
                              core block of these two parties may          Parliament would be a less effective      Second, Italy has resurfaced           populism and euro-skepticism.
                              no longer form a reliable majority,          co-legislator with the Council         as a major source of economic                 Third, the EU is facing a
                              especially if (as appears likely) the        (representing the member states).      and political instability. Although       remarkable challenge to its
                              liberal pan-European En Marche!              Some states may seek to diminish       the Italian Government is highly          core values and laws. After the

                              b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                                                                             7
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
SPOTLIGHT

Parliament censured Hungary             Christian Democratic Union              counter-balanced, German power            Middle East remains under
for breaches of the rule of law, the    has weakened in national and            at the heart of the EU. If the UK         control, it may re-emerge as a
nation appealed to the European         regional polls, at the same time        leaves as planned and French              potent contributor to European
Court of Justice in Luxembourg          that her sister party, the Christian    loss of political prestige persists,      extremism. While Russia has
(the EU’s highest court) and            Social Union, has lost its historic     the European project would                sought for years to magnify
refused to address EC’s concerns.       dominance in Bavaria. The grand         become even more unbalanced.              Europe’s divisions, its interference
Hungary might defy the court,           governing coalition of CDU-CSU          Diminished leadership in Berlin,          in European elections is new.
unlike Poland, which agreed to          with the Social Democratic Party        furthermore, may mean even                And in the US, the White House,
amend a law on its judiciary only       faces tremendous uncertainty.           greater unwillingness to make             abandoning six decades of
after the court upheld the EC’s         Merkel has given up party               bold moves to secure Europe’s             bipartisan foreign policy in favor
concerns. If Hungary does so, the       leadership and some speculate           future, including partnering with         of bilateral and transactional
stage will be set for a conflict that   that she may not finish her term.       Paris on eurozone reform.                 relationships with national
would embolden euro-skeptics                These trends are occurring              Finally, external factors such        capitals, now hopes for further
and potentially tear the EU apart.      at the same time as Brexit and          as migration, Russia and the US           member exits from the EU. u
   Fourth, Germany’s ability to         political fragmentation across          add spice to this witch’s potion.
                                                                                                                          Tony Gardner is a Brunswick Senior
continue providing direction may        the Continent. France and the           Although the flow of migration            Adviser in London and a former US
diminish. Chancellor Merkel’s           UK have complemented, and               from Northern Africa and the              Ambassador to the EU.

                                                                                                                          • Who does what? What will be
                                                                                                                             the roles of the Chairman, the
                                                                                                                             Chief Executive, the CFO?
                                                                                                                          • Who will take operational
                                                                                                                             charge of the issues? Who will
                                                                                                                             reassure the markets?
                                                                                                                          • Who will run the Company in
                                                                                                                             the meantime?
                                                                                                                          Likewise the risk of certain events
                                                                                                                          can always be addressed.
                                                                                                                          What happens if:
                                                                                                                          • The Head Office is blown up
                                        PLAN for the                                                                       or flooded?
                                                                                                                          • There is a denial of service or
                                        Unforeseeable                                                                      other cyber attack?
                                                                                                                          • There is a fatal injury in a
                                                                                                                            critical plant?
                                                                                                                              It is a potentially endless list,
                                                                                                                          but unrehearsed means un-

L
                                                                                                                          prepared; too often we see the
    ord balfour, a conservative         Success boils down to                   9/11; the SARS epidemic (now
    Prime Minister, observed that       discipline, says Brunswick’s            largely forgotten – it was worse          “nine-year-old football team”
    the longer he continued in          Rob Webb.                               than 9/11 for many airlines); the         spectacle, where no one plays in
office, the more he realized that                                               2008 financial crash, which inter-        position and all players crowd the
“Nothing matters very much              another day, another crisis, be it      rupted business traffic; and the          goalmouth in the hope of being
and few things matter at all.” In       for the National Health Service, for    physical crash of the Concorde            the one who puts the ball in the
1902, with the British Empire at        the Prime Minister, for Manchester      into a suburb of Paris in 2000.           net. Even senior executives find it
its peak, such lofty indifference       United’s manager, for whoever.              A disaster foreseen is usu-           difficult to resist the desire to join
may have constituted a sensible,            But real crises are still quite     ally a disaster avoided – it is           in. Crises are exciting, discipline
pragmatic approach to almost            rare, at least insofar as they affect   the unanticipated ones that               can be dull. Yet it is imperative
any disaster which might then           the population of the affluent          are the problem. No company               that each should play to his or her
have befallen the nation.               West, where prosperity has grown        should spend too much money               own, pre-agreed positions.
    In 2018, we have taken the          steadily amid a consistent negative     preparing for the unlikely and the            So to the moral: Crises are
opposite approach. The media            drumbeat from the ubiquitous            unexpected (snow at Heathrow              not daily events, but in the life of
would have us believe that there        prophets of doom. In the new vol-       is debatable as an example), but          corporations, they happen. The
is a crisis every day. “A scared        atility of our times, business events   it must at the very least have a          best preparation is to identify, in
                                                                                                                                                                     ILLUSTRATION: SERGE BLOCH

reader is tomorrow’s reader”            that threaten prosperity arise with     plan to deal with the unexpected,         advance, not the precise form that
worked well as a maxim in the           an increasing frequency and can         as a general concept. No one can          the crisis will take, but who will
newspaper world of print and            still properly be called crises.        know in advance what shape it             manage it and then to ensure that
it has lost none of its vigor as            For example, at British Airways,    will take, but that should not            such individuals know who they
the world has gone digital. The         where I worked from 1998 to             prevent planning and rehearsal to         are and are properly practiced. u
concept of “crisis” has gone into       2008, there were several corporate-     answer certain questions generic          Rob Webb is a Brunswick Senior Adviser
the language of daily routine;          threatening events: the attacks of      to all such events:                       in London.

8                                                                                                             b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
WORKPLACE                                 ONE IN FOUR AMERICAN
                                                                                                                                                                              EMPLOYEES have seen or
                                                                                                                                     CONDUCT:                              heard of a workplace conduct
                                                                                                                                                                            incident in their firm in the
                                                                                                                                     Wake-Up Call                                 past 12 months.

                                                                                                                                     R
                                                                                                                                                                           89%
                                                                                                                                         esearch by brunswick
                                                                                                                                         found a gap between how
                                                                                                                                         leaders view issues of
                                                                                                                                     workplace conduct and how non-
                                                                                                                                     leadership employees see them. In
                                                                                                                                     short, leaders are optimistic – and
                                                                                                                                     out of touch. The data, collected
                                                                                                                                     from a nationally representative
                                                                                                                                                                                want to hear from
                                                                                                                                     sample of 1,000 US adults in
                                                                                                                                                                            their CEO about respect in
                                                                                                                                     August 2018, also found that            the workplace, yet only
                                                                                                                                     workplace conduct issues remain             29 percent have.
                                                                                                                                     prevalent across industries, and
                                                                                                                                     that employee trust is in short
                                                                                                                                     supply. Almost one in two workers        THREE IN 10 EMPLOYEES
                                                                                                                                     believed HR would prioritize the        believe discrimination is
                                                                                                                                     company over employees.               widespread in the workplace.

                                                                                                                                                                PERCEPTION GAP
                                                                                                                                     Leaders are more likely than others to believe their workplace does not
                                                                                                                                        tolerate harassment and is focused on addressing misconduct.
                                                                                                                                       Leadership       Non-Leadership        Leadership         Non-Leadership
                                                                                                                                       Employees          Employees           Employees            Employees

                                                                                                                                         66%                49%                  72%                  54%

                                                                                                                                     “Strongly agree” their workplace      Believe workplace misconduct is a
                                                                                                                                      "does not tolerate harassment"        priority of the board of directors

                                                  BETTER GET A                                 adults are unprepared for disaster.
                                                                                               Faced with the need to run from
                                                                                                                                     Hamilton climbed 16 dark flights
                                                                                                                                     to grab his and his daughters’ Go
                                                                                                                                                                           power in their home was restored.
                                                                                                                                                                              Go Bags can be purchased

                                                  GO BAG
                                                                                               hurricanes, wildfires, terrorist      Bags. That experience was what        online, with prices from $70 and
                                                                                               attacks or floods, there is often     led him to keep a second Go Bag       to $300. Or they can be custom
                                                                                               no time, so a pre-packed bag          at the office.                        made. Mr. Hamilton’s self-made

                                                  W
                                                         hen peter hamilton                    can be crucial. New York City’s           In 2012, Hurricane Sandy left     bag contains a long-lasting LED
                                                         stored a Go Bag in his                Emergency Management website          downtown Manhattan and much           flashlight, a multi-purpose tool,
                                                         office, his colleagues                contains an entire section on Go      of the northeast without power.       a basic first-aid kit, disposable
                                                  smirked. Then in 2003, midtown               Bags, and makes clear that one        Their Go Bags kept Mr. Hamilton       respirators, work gloves, a
                                                  Manhattan lost power and Mr.                 isn’t sufficient.                     and his family fed, hydrated          portable radio, four water bottles,
ILLUSTRATIONS: FABIO CONSOLI; TOP, MELINDA BECK

                                                  Hamilton, with his Go Bag                       “Everyone in your household        and armed with flashlights until      two mylar blankets, two giant
                                                  flashlight, became the office hero           should have a Go Bag,” it says,                                             black trash bags and separate
                                                  as he led those same colleagues              adding it “should be sturdy and                                             small bags for carrying batteries
                                                  down a dark stairwell.                       easy to carry, like a backpack or a                                         and a cigarette lighter.
                                                     The Go Bag may be the                     small suitcase on wheels.”                                                     Other items to consider: a
                                                  simplest bit of crisis planning that            If it sounds like too much                                               few days’ worth of water and
                                                  most people ignore. Governments              trouble for something that likely                                           non-perishable food, a battery
                                                  around the world recommend it,               won’t be used, consider that Mr.                                            operated radio, toiletries, cash,
                                                  but research suggests that only              Hamilton has used his three times.                                          copies of important documents,
                                                  a minority have such a kit at the            First after 9/11, when his family’s                                         rain gear, medication and chargers
                                                  ready. The US Federal Emergency              home just north of the World                                                for basic electronics. u
                                                  Management Agency estimates                  Trade Center lost power. Using the                                          Gabrielle Ouaknine is an Office
                                                  that 60 percent of American                  flashlight he always carried, Mr.                                           Assistant in New York.

                                                  b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                                                                            9
The CRISIS Issue - Brunswick Group
SPOTLIGHT

AFRICA on                                                                          accounts, up from less than a
                                                                                  million in 2014. Between 2016
                                                                                                                         curious mobile money experience.
                                                                                                                         How did it go from laggard to

Speed Dial
                                                                               and 2017 the value of mobile              mobile banking vanguard? Rather
                                                                               transactions in Ghana rose by 97          predictably and boringly, through
                                                                               percent to $34.6 billion. It was          regulatory changes.
Ghana’s mobile payments                                                        $45.3 billion in Kenya. According            Ghana had well-intentioned
surge offers a lesson.                                                         to the Consultative Group to              regulations aimed at financial
                                                                               Assist the Poor, Ghanaians are            inclusion, but which proved to

T
     hirteen percent of                                                        now even using their phones to            be a barrier to mobile money
     Ghanaian adults owned a                                                   buy sovereign bonds. In short,            investment. The Central Bank re-
     mobile money account in                                                   Ghana came out of nowhere to              examined those regulations and
2014. In one sense, that’s no                                                  become the fastest growing and            changed them – voilà, revolution.
real surprise. After all, everyone                                             one of the largest mobile money              This serves as a cautionary
has heard of the mobile money                                                  markets in the world.                     tale about Africa’s development.
revolution in Africa. But they tend                                                Berkshire Hathaway recently           For economies to grow, to
to think Kenya and East Africa.                                                pumped $600 million into                  attract investment and enable
    But Ghana? Not so much.              politically, socially. Meanwhile      emerging market fintech                   technologies that will unlock
In 2014, when The Wall Street            Ghana, one of the fastest growing     companies – the surest signal that        Africa’s demographic dividend
Journal reported on how banks            economies in the world … nope.        fintech is mainstream, ordinary.          – rather than doom a continent
were vying for a piece of Africa’s           To be fair to The WSJ, Tanzania   Ghana, on the other hand, is              that will soon have roughly the
mobile money revolution, Ghana           at the time had about 8 million       proof that the technology leapfrog        same population size as Asia –
did not feature in the article at        mobile money accounts – over          is both possible and plausible.           governments must matter,
all. Zimbabwe was mentioned.             10 times more than Ghana. Fast            To understand the potential           policy must matter and politics
Tanzania was mentioned. Neither          forward three years and Ghana         for Africa to use technology as a         must matter. u
of those countries were doing            (population 28 million) now           developmental leapfrog, one must          Itumeleng Mahabane is a Partner in
particularly well economically,          has 11 million mobile money           in part unravel Ghana’s rather            Brunswick’s Johannesburg office.

CORPORATE                                                                                                                the accumulation of small, bad
                                                                                                                         decisions. Employees in firms with

Pre-Mortem
                                                                                                                         short-term decision-making by a
                                                                                                                         small group of leaders were more
                                                                                                                         likely to select this cause.
Brunswick Insight’s Robert                                                                                                   Others saw competition as the
Moran asks, how is your                                                                                                  biggest threat – 15 percent selected
company likely to die?                                                                                                   existing competitors and 14
                                                                                                                         percent new competitors.

C
    orporations are focusing                                                                                                 New technology followed
    more on risk identification and                                                                                      closely, selected by 13 percent. This
    mitigation than ever before                                                                                          was the trend consistently cited
and corporate risk committees are                                                                                        as the most challenging over the
increasingly being used to scan the                                                                                      next decade – more than social
horizon for emerging risks.                                                                                              change, economic turbulence or
But, are they crowdsourcing                                                                                              environmental issues.
these risks with their employees?                                                                                            The next most likely cause
Brunswick Insight did this by            another decade – 63 percent think     long-term approaches. They were           of corporate death is the sin
surveying 601 US employees at            their firm is “very likely” to live   consistently seen as more trusted         of omission – “failing to take
large corporations (1000-plus            another decade, but everyone else     and resilient. Those with the             advantage of new opportunities”
employees).We asked them a               is less convinced. For our study,     lowest expectation for survival           at 12 percent. And rounding out              ILLUSTRATIONS: MELINDA BECK; TOP, SERGE BLOCH

range of questions including 1)          we divided corporate culture into     were both more reactive and relied        the list was lack of demand, a good
how likely they think it is that their   eight descriptive categories, based   on fewer decision makers.                 reminder that this age-old pressure
employer will survive the next           on three binary attributes: whether   But, what do employees think              remains our first competitor.
10 years and 2) if their employer        their approach was more proactive     will kill their companies?                    In sum, employees seem to
were to go out of business, what         or reactive; whether there were       Employees are skeptical that a big        believe that while corporate
would be the main cause of               many or few decision makers;          scandal or crisis, the corporate          crises and scandals are common,
corporate death?                         and whether the time focus for        equivalent of an asteroid strike,         they are less deadly than bad
What did we learn from this              leadership was more short-term or     will destroy their business. Only         management, competitors old and
corporate pre-mortem?                    long-term.                            10 percent listed such an event as a      new, and disruptive technology. u
First, nearly four in 10 (37                 As you might expect, cultures     likely cause of death. On the other
percent) of American employees           with the greatest expectation of      hand, 26 percent identified simple,       Robert Moran is a Partner in
                                                                                                                         Washington, DC and Head of Brunswick
at large companies aren’t                survivability were in categories      garden variety mismanagement              Insight, the firm’s public opinion, market
convinced their firm will survive        identified to have proactive,         by leadership as a likely cause –         research and analytics arm.

10                                                                                                           b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
INTRODUCTION

                             A
                                   recent wharton study of stock            who once suffered a health-threatening
                                   collapses following reputational hits    collapse at her desk at the Huffington
                                   found that price recovery on average     Post, and Jocko Willink (Page 40), a deco-
                             took 80 weeks. The authors of that study,      rated Navy Seal turned best-selling au-
                             interviewed here on Page 34, believe it        thor. Where Ms. Huffington sees “a crisis
                             bolsters the argument for anticipating         of well-being” marked by too much email
                             and preparing for crisis. But they ac-         and too little sleep, Mr. Willink laments
                             knowledge that a large body of behavioral      a crisis of laziness and lack of discipline.
                             research shows that we’re not rational         Surely there’s truth to both arguments.
                             about risk. We tend to believe that calam-         Consistent in these pages is a message
                             ity will strike elsewhere, not here. The       of hope. Automotive legend Bob Lutz,
                             dangers of that fallacy are starkly appar-     Vice Chairman of General Motors during
                             ent in the context of national security.       its bankruptcy, recounts with pride its
                                 “A terror attack is no time to learn       reemergence and revival (Page 22). The
                             how to respond,” Brunswick’s Paddy Mc-         US bailout of troubled financial and
                             Guinness, former UK Deputy National            industrial giants – heavily criticized in
                             Security Adviser, writes on Page 53.           2009 – led to a longer period of growth
                                In the C-suite, quests for growth and       than anyone could have imagined, says
                             prosperity are balanced more than ever         Columbia University historian Adam
                             by efforts to foresee and minimize threats     Tooze on Page 27. In an amusing tale on

                             CRISIS ISSUE
                             old and new, and from every possible di-
                             rection. “Don’t let the discovery of a cyber
                             attack be the first time you think about
                             how you will handle it,” advise a pair of
                                                                            Page 77, Kansas City reaped a benefit
                                                                            from an embarrassing internet prank.
                                                                                Also clear from this Review is that
                                                                            crisis can offer executives the chance to
                             Brunswick cyber experts on Page 47.            serve larger-than-usual constituencies.
                                Not every crisis can be anticipated of      New research shows that companies now
                             course, and no set of management rules         contribute a greater share of natural-
                             could apply to each and all. Some rescues,     disaster aid than governments and aid
                             for instance, may gain force from mea          organizations (Page 90).
                             culpae and apologies, as Brunswick’s               There is also the rousing influence of
                             Stuart Hudson and Andrew Porter write          character. After a third of his colleagues
                             on Page 59. But assigning blame during         and his two fellow senior partners per-
                             last decade’s financial crisis wasn’t the      ished in the World Trade Center attack
                             highest priority for US Treasury Secre-        (Page 42), Jimmy Dunne’s determination
                             tary Timothy Geithner. Public outrage          to rebuild their boutique investment
                             notwithstanding, he was too busy saving        banking firm became an inspiration to
PHOTOGRAPH: FREDRIK BRODEN

                             the economy. Among other lessons, Mr.          all of America.
                             Geithner (Page 12) says decisions must             We hope that this edition informs and
                             be made even in the absence of attractive      inspires you. u
                             options. “Plan beats no plan,” he says.
                                In these pages, the complicated nature
                             of crisis is reflected in the disparate mes-
                                                                            NEAL WOLIN,
                             sages of Arianna Huffington (Page 36),         CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
                                                                                                                    11
president barack obama, inaugurated amid the worst financial

      TIMOTHYGEITHNER
                   crisis since the Great Depression, named an unorthodox Secretary of the
                   Treasury. Timothy F. Geithner wasn’t a banker, an academic or an econo-
                   mist. He was a career civil servant who had run the New York Fed since 2003,
                   entirely under President George W. Bush. Politically he was independent. To
                   President-elect Obama’s first expression of interest in him as Treasury Sec-
                   retary, Mr. Geithner responded: “Let me talk you out of that.”
                      What made Mr. Geithner the top candidate was his stewardship of the
                   New York Fed during the previous few months. As mortgage defaults ex-
                   posed under-recognized risks in the balance sheets of financial services
                   firms, toppling the likes of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, Mr. Geithner
                   had helped design a $700 billion federal fund to provide liquidity to stricken
                   companies in exchange for preferred stock. That measure, so far, appeared
                   to have contained the ongoing crisis, even if the bailout of Wall Street firms
                   was provoking outrage on the left and the right. Here, too, was a proven vir-
                   tue of Mr. Geithner’s: He didn’t care about approval ratings. In his mind the
                   only priority was preventing a second Great Depression.
                      When he became Treasury Secretary in late January of 2009, Americans
                   were losing their jobs, savings and homes at terrifying rates. Consumer

                   The former US
                   Treasury Secretary
                   on managing the
                   worst financial crisis
                   since the Great
                   Depression.
                                                                                                    PHOTOGRAPH: TAYLOR HILL/FILMMAGIC

12
2008 CRASH           GEITHNER

confidence had sunk to all-time lows. In the hope
of calming nerves in the markets and beyond, Mr.
                                                              “The worst     the Treasury, Neal Wolin, now the Chief Executive
                                                                             Officer of Brunswick. “We lived through months of
Geithner delivered a speech, early in his tenure, that    financial crises   terror,” Mr. Geithner wrote. “We endured seeming-
proved disastrous.                                       and associated      ly endless stretches when global finance was on the
                                                                             edge of collapse, when we had to make monumen-
   “Stocks tumbled more than 3 percent before I
even finished talking and nearly 5 percent by the            recessions      tal decisions in a fog of uncertainty, when our op-
end of the day,” Mr. Geithner recalled in his best-          are typically   tions all looked dismal but we still had to choose.”
                                                                                In an interview with Brunswick Review’s Kevin
selling memoir, Stress Test, published in 2014. “It
was a bad speech, badly delivered. I kept peering
                                                            followed by a    Helliker, Mr. Geithner, now the President of War-
around the teleprompter to look directly at the au-             decade       burg Pincus, expands on his thoughts about man-
                                                                             aging during a crisis.
dience, which apparently made me look shifty; one            of populism,
commentator said I looked like a shoplifter. ”
   In the weeks that followed, Mr. Geithner became
                                                               because       In his new book Crashed, which has been praised
                                                                             as the first scholarly history of the financial
a popular target, prompting President Obama              the public anger    collapse, Columbia University’s Adam Tooze says
to joke at a Wall Street dinner in mid-2009 that             and outrage     the US rescue was more effective than anyone
                                                                             could have envisioned. Is that gratifying?
he needed to train his dog, Bo, “because the last
thing Tim Geithner needs is someone else treat-
                                                           and economic      I think there is reasonably broad consensus that the
ing him like a fire hydrant,” wrote Mr. Geithner in          damage are      US strategy was effective, at least in comparison to
Stress Test.
   Within months, however, the US economy start-
                                                         easily exploited    the Great Depression, and to the financial crises in
                                                                             Japan, Scandinavia and Europe in 2010-12.
ed growing again, and the ensuing decade served          by the populist.”      But, it was still a terrible crisis, with devastating
to vindicate Mr. Geithner. By the end of 2013, US                            human costs. With better authority and a stronger
household wealth had exceeded the pre-crisis peak,                           financial arsenal in place before the crisis, with a
thanks in large part to a long bull market, and US                           greater understanding of what it takes to confront
GDP was 6 percent higher than before the crisis.                             a classic financial panic, and with greater apprecia-
The unemployment rate steadily declined. Mean-                               tion of the importance of a large and sustained fiscal
while, buybacks of government investments in bail-                           stimulus … it would have been less damaging.
out recipients provided taxpayers with tens of bil-
lions of dollars of profit.                                                  Stress Test is infinitely more readable, thanks
   Even now, that success isn’t widely recognized.                           to the economy of lines such as “Plan beats no
“Conventional wisdom still holds that we aban-                               plan.” Do you have an innate sense of the balance
doned Main Street to protect Wall Street – ex-                               between too much and too little information?
cept on Wall Street, where conventional wisdom                               More communication is better than less, certainly
holds that President Obama is a radical socialist                            about broad objectives. But people also need full
consumed with hatred for moneymakers,” Mr.                                   transparency on the details if you have any chance
Geithner wrote in Stress Test. “The financial re-                            of credibility.
form law [Dodd-Frank] that we wrote and pushed                                  I never had a good feel for how to explain what
through a bitterly divided Congress after the crisis,                        we were doing. In part, that was because things were
the most sweeping overhaul of financial rules since                          moving too fast, it sometimes took too long to get
the Depression, is widely viewed as too weak, ex-                            consensus, and we were working on the design of
cept in the financial world, where it is described as                        each stage of escalation up until the minute we an-
an existential threat.”                                                      nounced. We had no time to think, and we couldn’t
   Not that Mr. Geithner is inclined to celebrate his                        ask the markets to pause while we designed the best
and his team’s success in avoiding a second Great                            communications strategy. We were often feeling our
Depression. “Nearly 9 million workers lost jobs;                             way, without much knowledge of what we would
9 million people slipped below the poverty line;                             have to do next and what would work. We could not
5 million homeowners lost homes. Behind those                                credibly reassure people that it would all be OK. We
numbers lies real suffering by real people who                               couldn’t protect people from a lot of the pain that
didn’t put banks in danger with reckless bets they                           was going to come.
didn’t understand,” he wrote.                                                   The narrative that might have been most effective
   As crisis experiences go, few can match that of                           with the financial markets was least effective with the
Mr. Geithner and his team, including his deputy at                           public and the politicians, and vice versa.

14                                                                                       b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
Of the view that the rescue favored Wall Street                                                     cal argument that the political consequences of the
                                                                                      over Main Street, you wrote, “I never found an                                                      crisis would have been less harsh, if, for example, we
                                                                                      effective way to explain to the public what we                                                      had let the crisis burn, or nationalized the financial
                                                                                      were doing and why.” Should communication                                                           system, or tried to drift through the crisis without a
                                                                                      have been a higher priority?                                                                        forceful deployment of the financial arsenal.
                                                                                      One thing I learned early in life at the Treasury is that                                              The worst financial crises and the associated re-
                                                                                      it’s important to put as much time and talent into                                                  cessions are typically followed by a decade of popu-
                                                                                      figuring out how to explain what you are doing to                                                   lism, because the public anger and outrage and the
                                                                                      the public as you do into designing the programs.                                                   economic damage are easily exploited by the pop-
                                                                                      But in this crisis, we were never quite able to do that.                                            ulist. It’s worth noting that many of the economic
                                                                                                                                                                                          challenges that have undermined public confidence
                                                                                      Were there times you wished state or federal                                                        in the fairness of the US economic system and
                                                                                      prosecutors would help combat the perception                                                        the competence of the political system – the slow
                                                                                      of a government beholden to Wall Street?                                                            growth in the median income, the fall in labor force
                                                                                      Sure, but as Michael Kinsley once wrote, the scandal                                                participation, the high levels of poverty, rising in-
                                                                                      wasn’t what was illegal, it was what was legal. The                                                 equality, etc. – had been on a bad path for decades
                                                                                      widespread belief that there was a huge amount of                                                   before the crisis.
                                                                                                                                                          TO THE EDGE
                                                                                      fraud and predation was not sufficient basis for an                 AND BACK
                                                                                      army of motivated prosecutors to meet the under-                                                    If the social media environment of 2018 had
                                                                                                                                                          A crisis that began with
                                                                                      standable public expectations for justice.                                                          existed in 2008, would it have been harder to
                                                                                                                                                          subprime mortgage
                                                                                                                                                          defaults led to the             ignore criticism?
                                                                                      In 2014 you wrote, “We did save the economy,                        collapse of Lehman              The din of criticism had no problem getting through
                                                                                                                                                          Brothers, raising fears
                                                                                      but we lost the country doing it.” Did that loss                                                    even before Twitter. Might Twitter have made it eas-
                                                                                                                                                          of a systemic banking
                                                                                      seem greater after the 2016 election?                               failure that government         ier for the policymaker to communicate? Maybe. It
                                                                                      No. We were dramatically better off politically and                 leaders quickly –               does seem to force one to distill a complex point to
                                                                                                                                                          and controversially –
                                                                                      economically with the choices we made, relative to                  scrambled to avoid,             its essential core. Of course, very few problems and
                                                                                      the alternative. I don’t think there is a credible politi-          with eventual success.          fewer solutions can be reduced to 144 characters.
PHOTOGRAPHS: CATE GILLON/GETTY IMAGES; TOP, JEREMY BALES/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

                                                                                      April 2007                          March 2008                      October 2008                    November 2008                   May 2009
                                                                                      A leading subprime mortgage         The New York Fed provides       President Bush signs into law   AIG receives $40 billion        Regulators release results
                                                                                      lender, New Century Financial,      $29 billion in term financing   the act that creates the        through TARP, while Citigroup   of stress tests on the 19
                                                                                      files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy     to help JPMorgan buy Bear       $700 billion Troubled Asset     and Bank of America receive     biggest US banks, all of which
                                                                                      protection.                         Stearns.                        Relief Program, or TARP.        another injection of $20        received TARP funds, and
                                                                                                                          September 2008                  The Treasury buys $125          billion each.                   say 10 of them need to raise
                                                                                      August-December 2007
                                                                                                                                                          billion worth of preferred                                      about $75 billion combined
                                                                                      The Fed cuts the discount           The government places                                           February 2009
                                                                                                                          Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac      stock in nine banks in                                          to endure a possibly deeper
                                                                                      rate four times by a total of 1.5                                                                   The Fed, FDIC and other
                                                                                                                          into conservatorship, Lehman    exchange for TARP funds.                                        recession.
                                                                                      percentage points and does so                                                                       government agencies
                                                                                      eight more times in 2008 as         Brothers Holdings seeks                                         announce a plan to “stress      December 2009
                                                                                      the economy weakens.                bankruptcy protection and                                       test” banks.                    Bank of America, Citigroup
                                                                                                                          Bank of America announces a                                                                     and Wells Fargo say they’ll buy
                                                                                                                          plan to buy Merrill Lynch                                                                       back all the stock they sold to
                                                                                      Timeline source: Reuters            for $50 billion.                                                                                the Treasury under TARP.

                                                                                      b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                                                                           15
GEITHNER           2008 CRASH

                                                                                         You’ve talked about the danger of acting too
                                                                                         soon versus the danger of acting too late in a
                                                                                         financial crisis. In seeking that balance, on which
                                                                                         side would you err?
                                                                                         There’s no bright line. In the early stage of a crisis, it
                                                                                         make sense to move gradually. But when you are at
                                                                                         the point where things are eroding rapidly and the
                                                                                         run is spreading, then you have to be able to escalate
                                                                                         quickly, with overwhelming force.

                                                                                         You avoided reading news stories about yourself
                                                                                         during the crisis. Any other advice on how to stay
                                                                                         true to course amid criticism?
                                                                                         Just focus on figuring out what is most likely to
                                                                                         work. Don’t worry about whether people will praise
                                                                                         or criticize you for it.

                                                                                         Your analysis of your strengths in Stress Test is
You entered the New York Fed never having                  Mr. Geithner’s first public   balanced by a depiction of yourself as impatient,
                                                           statement as Secretary
worked in a bank, never having received an                                               foul-mouthed and lacking charisma as a public
                                                           of the US Treasury in
economics PhD. Was that outsider status in any             early 2009 did not go well.   speaker. Is there an advantage to appearing
way helpful, perhaps giving you a broader view of          "My voice wavered. I          human as a leader, rather than flawless?
                                                           tried to sound forceful,
options during the crisis?                                 but I just sounded like       The important thing is to be true to what you believe
I think it was more a disadvantage than advantage.         someone trying to sound       is right. Without that, you will be less than authen-
There is a lot of valuable knowledge about the struc-      forceful," he wrote in his    tic, and it will be harder to earn credibility. Nothing
                                                           2014 memoir, Stress Test.
ture of our financial system that I wish had had be-                                     good can come from a desire to appear infallible.
fore I took that job.
                                                                                         It sounds as if you slept about three hours a night
In recommending you for the New York Fed                                                 for two years during the crisis. How does one
job, Larry Summers praised your willingness to                                           maintain one’s physical and mental health during
disagree with him. Is that a quality you seek in                                         such a prolonged period?
people you hire?                                                                         I need a fair amount of sleep and worked hard to
Of course. You need people around you who are                                            preserve some room for that. My most important
willing to challenge you, and challenge each other.                                      advantage was my relationship with my wife, Car-
Good decision making, in any context, but particu-                                       ole, and her calm mix of strength and wisdom. And
larly in a crisis, with its mix of high stakes and high                                  I was very lucky to be able to work with, to share the
uncertainty, requires a level of trust so that there can                                 fear and burden, with a wonderfully talented and
be open debate. It works better with people who                                          ethical group of public servants.
are curious, willing to change their minds, express

                                                                                                                                                             PHOTOGRAPH: ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
doubt and work together. It works better with peo-                                       You’ve said that you identified with the emotional
ple who are willing to be for stuff, not just against                                    intensity of “The Hurt Locker,” a film about a
stuff; people able to think about what to do, not just                                   soldier who so misses the drama and danger
able to describe a problem.                                                              of war that he returns to it. Do you ever miss
                                                                                         the intensity of battling the financial collapse?
After you and Larry Summers placed Steve                                                 Would you do it again?
Rattner in charge of the federal auto task force,                                        No, I don’t miss that type of intensity, and I don’t
he fired the CEO of General Motors without                                               miss the crushing weight of responsibility. I miss the
consulting you – for which you’ve praised him. Is                                        people, though. And for those of you who haven’t
it important not to micromanage a crisis?                                                had the thrill and the privilege of working for your
Sure. If you have good people around you, as we                                          country, I would encourage you to try it. u
certainly did, then it’s easier to give them responsi-
                                                                                         kevin helliker, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist,
bility. But you can’t be too remote. You have to have                                    is Editor in Chief of the Brunswick Review. He is based
sufficient depth in the substance of the key choices.                                    in New York.

16                                                                                                    b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
N
                                                                      eal wolin was seated at his desk as                                brought to the job a law degree from Yale, a gradu-
                                                                      Deputy Counsel to President Barack                                 ate degree in economics from Oxford University, a
                                                                      Obama in early 2009 when a call came                               decade of experience as a high-level government
                                                                      from Rahm Emanuel.                                                 attorney and a prosperous run in the C-suite at The
                                                                         “Get the @&!% over to Treasury,” said                           Hartford. During his previous stint in government,
                                                                      Mr. Emanuel, the President’s Chief of Staff.                       Mr. Wolin had served as General Counsel to the
                                                               Only a few weeks earlier, Mr. Wolin had moved         Thrust into         Treasury, working with Mr. Geithner – then a se-
                                                            from Connecticut to Washington to join the new           a lead role         nior Treasury official focused on international eco-
                                                            administration as Deputy Counsel to President
                                                                                                                     at Treasury         nomic policy – on financial crises in Mexico, Russia
                                                                                                                     during the
                                                            Obama for economic policy and Deputy Assistant                               and Asia.
                                                            to the President. This being the winter of 2009, he                             Their boss back then, Secretary of the Trea-
                                                            was not surprised to be dispatched to the Depart-
                                                                                                                     financial crisis,   sury Larry Summers, was now serving as President
                                                            ment of Treasury. The financial sector as well as the    Brunswick CEO       Obama’s Director of the National Economic Coun-
                                                            economy required urgent attention.                       neal wolin          cil. The three of them, competitors on the tennis
                                                               In the following weeks, Mr. Wolin kept one desk       helped shape        court since the Clinton administration, now be-
                                                            at the White House and another at Treasury, each         the policies that   longed to a chorus of experts debating how to re-
                                                            with separate calendars and email accounts.              restored the        verse the scariest economic downturn of their lives.
                                                               Then on a Sunday afternoon he received a call         US economy.            “The fact that many of us knew each other

                                                                                                                     The Call of DUTY
                                                            from Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Trea-
                                                            sury, asking Mr. Wolin to serve as Deputy Secretary.
                                                            The call lasted 30 seconds.
                                                               At a moment when the survival of the finan-
                                                            cial system required emergency action, Mr. Wolin

                                                                                                                                         turned out to be very important,” Mr. Wolin re-
                                                                                                                                         calls. “Naturally there was lots of back and forth,
                                                                                                                                         different perspectives on how to move forward
                                                                                                                                         and even a fair amount of tension. But it was all
                                                                                                                                         undergirded by a set of long relationships and a
                                                                                                                                         deep sense of trust.”
                                                                                                                                            When Mr. Wolin arrived at Treasury that Feb-
                                                                                                                                         ruary, Congress was demanding that the agency
                                                                                                                                         limit executive pay at firms that had partaken of
                                                                                                                                         the $700 billion bailout fund the US government
                                                                                                                                         had established the previous fall. Outrage over
                                                                                                                                         Wall Street pay was a huge distraction from efforts
                                                                                                                                         to strengthen the economy, fix the banking system
                                                                                                                                         and restore confidence.
PHOTOGRAPH: COURTESY OF THE US DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY

                                                                                                                                            Mr. Wolin had the idea of taking that focus off
                                                                                                                                         of Treasury by hiring a “special master” to oversee
                                                                                                                                         compensation at firms that had received bailouts.
                                                                                                                                         Mr. Wolin also knew exactly whom to hire: Ken-
                                                                                                                                         neth Feinberg, a mediator who, among other ex-
                                                                                                                                         periences, had served as Special Master of the US
                                                                                                                                         government’s September 11th Victim Compensa-
                                                                                                                                         tion Fund.
                                                                                                                                            Mr. Wolin’s recommendation turned out to be
                                                                                                                                         crucial. “The suggestion to largely remove Treasury
                                                                                                                                         from individual decisions about executive compen-
                                                                                                                                         sation helped insulate President Obama and then-
                                                                                                                                         Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner from one
                                                                                                                                         of the most polarizing facets of the crisis response,”
                                                                                                                                         said a 2013 Washington Post story.

                                                            b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                                             17
2008 CRASH          NEAL WOLIN

   Mr. Wolin proceeded to play the role of arbiter                         ate on issues that had to be resolved before Dodd-
between Mr. Feinberg and Herbert Allison, the                              Frank could be enacted,” wrote Robert Kaiser, the
head of the government bailout fund, whose re-                             veteran Washington Post Editor, in Act of Congress,
sponsibilities included retaining top-level manage-                        his 2013 book on the making of Dodd-Frank.
ment at firms now owned in part by the govern-                             “A round-faced, jovial man with curly dark hair, his
ment. “Herb and Ken would have very different                              relaxed talent for dealing with people disguised an
perspectives on how to treat executives’ compen-                           intensely competitive personality. He was one of
sation,” says Mr. Wolin. “I’d tell Herb, ‘Ken’s job is                     the few Obama administration officials involved in
to make sure that compensation is at appropriate                           financial regulatory reform who had actual experi-
levels given that companies have taken in a lot of                         ence working in the financial sector. He was smart
taxpayer money.’ And I’d tell Ken, ‘These compa-                           and floridly profane. His colleagues loved him.”
nies have taken in a lot of taxpayer money, and we                            “It was a team effort,” says Mr. Wolin. He starts
can’t constrain pay to the extent that it impairs the                      to cite names – Michael Barr, Diana Farrell, Austan
ability of these companies to perform.’”                                   Goolsbee, Cass Sunstein – but the list is too long.
   Besides working to repair the proper function-                          “You put 40 people in that cauldron at that mo-
ing of the financial system, the Treasury was under                        ment in time and none of us will ever forget it. It
pressure to help design legislation to decrease the
probability of future systemic failures. Mr. Wolin
                                                          ”WE STARTED      was intense. It was morning, noon and night. But
                                                                           it was a pretty well-oiled machine. Not to be melo-
played a central role in producing the 122-page           BY SAYING TO     dramatic about it, but it felt like the stakes were
white paper that eventually became the 2,200-page          OURSELVES,      pretty high.”
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer                                    As Deputy Treasury Secretary, Mr. Wolin gen-
Protection Act.                                           ‘WHAT DO WE      erally stayed behind the scenes, though when he
   “We started by saying to ourselves, ‘What do we       THINK IS RIGHT?   did appear in public he displayed a penchant for
think is right? What do we think the moment calls                          humor. “Mr. Wolin is relentlessly cheerful,” said a
for? What are the things that government policy
                                                            WHAT DO        New York Times story in 2010. “He laughs at his
makers must have in order to best avoid another           WE THINK THE     penchant for legalese. At a recent press briefing, he
financial crisis? What are the tools the government
would need to deal with a crisis if it were to happen
                                                            MOMENT         said the White House would resist efforts to weaken
                                                                           consumer finance protections. ‘A carve-out for auto
again – which we assume it will?’”                        CALLS FOR?'"     dealers would be sort of a paradigmatic example of
   The process of creating and lobbying for that leg-                      such a weakening move,’ he said.
islation required Mr. Wolin and his team to negoti-                           “‘It would be a what example?’ one reporter asked.
ate with a vast array of parties: the White House,                            “‘A good example,’ he replied.”
both houses of Congress, consumer advocates, the                              During his long stint as Deputy Secretary – the
heads of other financial regulatory agencies and of                        longest in Treasury history – Mr. Wolin served as
course leaders of industry. “We had input from the                         Chief Operating Officer, essentially managing the
big banks, the community banks and every other                             department, including a unit charged with com-
piece of the financial sector,” Mr. Wolin recalls.                         bating terrorist financing. That responsibility sent
   At one point, the passage of Dodd-Frank was                             him to places like Pakistan, Yemen and West Africa.
threatened by a splinter group of Congressional                            When Mr. Wolin proposed pressuring Afghanistan
Democrats. “The centrist New Democrat Coali-                               to monitor and regulate Kabul Bank, the nation’s
tion, which had some members with close ties to                            largest bank, much of the federal government re-
the financial industry, threatened to block (Dodd-                         sisted, citing the bank’s close ties to Afghanistan
Frank) unless we barred states from passing con-                           President Hamid Karzai, a US ally. But President
sumer regulations tougher than federal rules,” Mr.                         Obama backed Mr. Wolin, who met with Mr. Kar-
Geithner wrote in his bestselling 2014 memoir,                             zai to start a process that led to reforms of the bank.
Stress Test. “They backed down after Neal Wolin                               In 2013, with the recovery in its fourth year, Mr.
deftly brokered some compromise language.”                                 Geithner left the Treasury. In the acknowledge-
   It helped that Mr. Wolin had credibility on both                        ments section of the memoir he published the next
sides of the aisle. He began his federal government                        year, Mr. Geithner wrote: “Neal Wolin, who para-
career during the George H.W. Bush administration                          chuted in at a fraught time as deputy secretary, was
as counsel to two CIA directors, both Republicans.                         my closest adviser on the most important chal-
   “Wolin was instrumental in finding compromis-                           lenges we faced, all while helping to manage the
es with difficult members of both House and Sen-                           vast Treasury empire. He ably represented Treasury

18                                                                                     b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9
around the world and across the street in the White     Treasury Secretary           ground for crisis,” says Mr. Wolin. “You’re under a
                                                                                                               Timothy Geithner, right,
                                                       House Situation Room, where the National Secu-                                       lot of time pressure. You’re under a lot of scrutiny.
                                                                                                               talks with his deputy,
                                                       rity Council met constantly.”                           Neal Wolin, at the           There are vast numbers of stakeholders each with
                                                          Mr. Wolin was planning to leave the Treasury         Treasury building in July,   their own perspectives on what ought to be the right
                                                                                                               2010. Mr. Wolin joined
                                                       around the same time. But President Obama asked         Brunswick as CEO in
                                                                                                                                            answer or the preferred path. And the domains of
                                                       him to stay on to serve as acting Secretary of the      February, 2018.              policy, politics and communications are necessarily
                                                       Treasury until Jack Lew was confirmed as the next                                    deeply intertwined.”
                                                       secretary. When Mr. Wolin left the Treasury later                                       Since leaving government, Mr. Wolin hasn’t spo-
                                                       that year, President Obama said in a statement to the                                ken much publicly about his Treasury experience,
PHOTOGRAPH: ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

                                                       Washington Post that Mr. Wolin’s “deep knowledge                                     though in 2015 he delivered a speech about it to se-
                                                       and excellent judgment helped us … pass tough                                        niors at his alma mater, Evanston Township High
                                                       new Wall Street reform, strengthen our financial                                     School, just north of Chicago. Student blogger Ben
                                                       system, foster growth here at home, and promote                                      Osterlund, writing about the speech, outlined Mr.
                                                       economic development around the world.”                                              Wolin’s message and his legacy in a few words: “His
                                                          Looking back at his decision to leave The Hart-                                   perspective included details on what it was like to
                                                       ford for the Obama administration, Mr. Wolin says                                    handle the financial crisis while working in the
                                                       the terrifying state of the economy at that moment                                   Treasury. Wolin and others at Treasury acted to put
                                                       was part of the attraction. “If you have public pol-                                 in place policy that would avoid a complete melt-
                                                       icy or public service as part of your DNA, it was an                                 down, and set the economy on a healthy path so
                                                       irresistible moment to go serve,” he says.                                           such a crisis wouldn’t happen again.” u
                                                          Mr. Wolin says the experience helped prepare him
                                                                                                                                            kevin helliker, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist,
                                                       for his current role as CEO of Brunswick, a firm that                                is Editor in Chief of the Brunswick Review. He is based
                                                       offers crisis counsel. “Government is a good training                                in New York.

                                                       b ru n s w i c k rev i ew · i s s u e 1 7 · 2 0 1 9                                                                                           19
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