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The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor: Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation Executive Summary / March 2021
Executive Summary March 2021 Neale Blair Jordana Corrigan Eoin Magennis Deiric Ó Broin www.dbec.info
Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 3
Foreword
We believe that the time has come for fresh
impetus to be given to the development of
the Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor. There
have been successes along the Corridor since
the 1990s, particularly in terms of employment
opportunities, peace–building and the
removal of barriers, and the rolling out of new
transport infrastructure. Much of this success
is due to cooperation at both the all–island
and local cross–border levels.
As we enter another new decade we health, are only beginning to work their
believe that much more collaboration is way through our systems. The role of local
possible for mutual benefit between the government in providing key frontline
cities of Dublin and Belfast and the regions services and offering an important point
between. In 2018 a network of eight of contact between central government
Councils located along the Corridor and and citizens has never been more obvious.
two universities came together to work The need for greater collaboration has also
collectively to find ways of realising the been highlighted.
potential benefits of further development
of the Corridor. This report is the first There is also the out–workings of Brexit,
output of this collective work. which highlight the need for the Corridor
and the island as a whole to remain
We are conscious that this report and the competitive in a changing world. The
work of the local government network climate emergency is another factor which
does not exist in a vacuum. As we launch must shape our thinking about the future
this report the COVID–19 pandemic development of a region, almost all of
has given a severe shock to economies which bounds the East coast.
and communities across the globe. The
impacts of having to shutter large parts As Councils each of us are involved in
of the economy and asking people to stay regional, county and community spatial
at home, in order to assist with public and inclusive strategies. All of these4 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
identify the challenges and the possibilities attached
to demographic changes, housing pressures, and the
need to secure employment opportunities for all of our
populations. In some areas we will compete with one
another but we also hold a shared recognition of the
potential benefits attached to any initiative to develop
the Corridor.
These potential benefits associated with the Dublin–
Belfast Economic Corridor are regularly mentioned by
central governments, most recently in Ireland 2040
and New Decade, New Agreement. We recognise the
crucial role that is and will continue to be played by
government departments, economic development
and other agencies and many other stakeholders from
across our communities, including the voluntary and
private sectors. We are publishing this report as our
contribution to the wider conversation that will be
necessary in developing any larger strategy to develop
the Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor.
Our immediate objective, as members of a local
government and higher education network, will be to
leverage the network’s resources in areas which we
believe can have a positive impact and add significant
value to the economic development of the Corridor at
a time of great economic and social uncertainty. To this
end, we have already established a partnership steering
group of the Chief Executives and heads of the two
universities committed to meet quarterly and a working
group of local government and university staff tasked
with developing a series of cooperative initiatives and
projects which can begin to realise this objective.
We commend this report to you as
an initial contribution to this work.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 5 Roger Wilson, Chief Executive Suzanne Wylie, Chief Executive Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Belfast City Council Borough Council Owen Keegan, Chief Executive AnnMarie Farrelly, Chief Executive Dublin City Council Fingal County Council David Burns, Chief Executive Joan Martin, Chief Executive Lisburn and Castlereagh City Council Louth County Council Jackie Maguire, Chief Executive Marie Ward, Chief Executive Meath County Council Newry, Mourne and Down District Council
6 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Executive
Summary
1. The concept of a Dublin–Belfast 3. The geographical definition
or Eastern Economic Corridor is one used for the Dublin–Belfast Economic
that has been in circulation since the Corridor is intended to combine both
early 1990s, at a time when the ideas administrative and functional geography.
of high growth zones, regions or The administrative boundaries reflect
corridors were emerging. Since then the eight Councils who have formed
economic corridors have entered a local authority network driven by
mainstream policy and have also the idea of looking afresh at the
developed from a focus purely on opportunities associated with the
transport infrastructure into more Corridor. The functional geography
complex economic zones attractive is intended to reflect a region which
to inward investment and a potential contains the significant road and rail
tool to tackle regional disparities. infrastructure links between Dublin
and Belfast.
2. This report has been
commissioned by a local government 4. This report details the recent
network formed by eight Councils strong economic performance of the
located in the Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor, as well as the significant
Corridor, who then asked staff from impacts that COVID–19 is having and
Ulster University and Dublin City likely to continue having on local
University to research and write the economies. As noted above a key reason
report in cooperation with the Councils.1 for the appearance of the report at this
The network came together with a time is that the Corridor faces some
shared recognition of the potential significant risks.
benefits that could arise from such an
initiative and the challenges that might 5. However, there are also
face it in the coming years, not least the opportunities which present themselves,
outcome of the UK’s exit from the EU. In not least in the initiatives and
the course of the project, the COVID–19 investments which will flow from the
pandemic has further significantly Belfast Region City Deal and the Ireland
shifted the economic trajectory. 2040 plans. The report therefore also
begins the work of identifying potential
areas for cooperation which could
create a stronger trajectory for growth.
1 The local authority network currently has Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council, Belfast City
Council, Dublin City Council, Fingal County Council, Lisburn & Castlereagh City Borough Council, Louth County Council,
Meath County Council and Newry, Mourne & Down District Council as members.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 7
Reflections from other 8. The lessons also help to identify
economic corridors a number of ingredients for successful
cooperation:
6. The research looked at examples • It is important to agree upon the
of economic corridors in other places, current stage of development of
from other parts of the island of Ireland any corridor. The Dublin–Belfast
to GB, to continental Europe and further Economic Corridor project currently
afield in emerging economies. These looks like it is at the ‘Know the
examples are useful in offering a variety cross–border territory, know each
of rationales for deeper cooperation and other within the territory’ stage.
collaborative initiatives on the Dublin– • Cooperation among actors on a
Belfast Economic Corridor. corridor needs (consistent) time,
energy and support to be nurtured
7. First, learning from elsewhere and to grow.
can be useful in identifying next steps • Local actions can deliver strategic
for the Corridor. Although it is important objectives in a practical way,
to heed the warning that ‘no one–size particularly in areas such as
fits all approach for achieving good innovation centres and skill strategies.
governance in establishing partnership • A medium– to long–term perspective,
among towns, cities and rural regions’ less ‘big bang’ than ‘slow burn’,
(ESPON, 2015), a case does exist is critical, in particular around
for exploring further dimensions of developing governance and
partnership. Looking specifically at the securing resources.
experience of promoting cross–border • Early wins can help cement the
economic corridors, two key success partnership, give support to the
factors suggest themselves: agreed governance and ensure
sustainable cooperation.
1) Know the cross–border territory,
know each other within the territory 9. The examples of economic
– both the strengths, weaknesses, corridors in Oresund, the Cambridge/
and complementarities of the Milton Keynes/Oxford and East Asia all
different sides of the cross–border have one thing in common: the need
territory, but also economic and for a clear vision of what additional
knowledge flows that characterise it. economic growth might arise from
the development of regional and local
2) Organise the governance of inter–governmental collaboration.
cross–border economic development This ranges from aspirational doubling
and involve all relevant territorial of additional economic output growth
stakeholders active within the cross– by 2050 in the case of Cambridge/
border territory including all levels Milton Keynes/Oxford, to the realized
of government. share of strong economic growth in the
case of the corridors of the Mekong
region in Asia.8 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Recent performance in the 13. The labour market impacts of
Dublin–Belfast Economic COVID–19 have been immediate and
affected every part of the Dublin–
Corridor and COVID–19
Belfast Economic Corridor. The impact
has varied across the population of
10. In terms of population, the
the Corridor – more severe for those
Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor has
in particular sectors and for younger
experienced strong growth in recent
people, those with fewer qualifications
decades. Since 2006 alone there has
and indeed lower incomes and fewer
been a 12% increase and, at the time of
resources – but few households have
the 2016 Census in Ireland, more than
not felt it. This breadth of effect but also
2 million people were living in the eight
particular severity for some sectors and
Council areas. Growth in the working
places should be central in any thinking
age population (16–64 year olds) is also
of recovery.
strong, and stands at 1.4 million people.
There are high levels of diversity within
14. By late January 2021 40% of those
this population, with 15% born outside
jobs or individuals on the island either
the island.
in receipt of Pandemic Unemployment
Payment or wage subsidy were located
11. Dublin city dominates the skyline
on the Corridor. This share has stayed
when we think of population with
similar throughout the pandemic but the
more than 1 in 4 of the population
overall numbers have fallen from a peak
in the Corridor living in the capital
of close to 500,000 in late June 2020
city. However, with Belfast and Fingal
to an estimate of perhaps 300,000 by
(between them more than the population
late February in the eight Council areas.
of Dublin) to act as counter–balances,
These numbers of people and jobs
this dominance lessens somewhat and
which remain impacted by COVID–19
perhaps points to how the Corridor, if
gives a sense of the size of the shock.
treated as a region, might lessen some
of the pressures on the capital.
15. Economic inactivity has also
increased in the past year but for those
12. The labour market in all parts
not participating in the labour market
of the Corridor has been very
due to ill health, caring duties or for
buoyant in recent years. By late 2019,
other reasons, it has been a long term
unemployment rates were close to
problem. Across the Corridor there are
or at historical lows, between 3% and
pockets of persistently high levels of
5% in most places. This was due to
inactivity, particularly in the Belfast,
recent strong growth in employment
Dublin, Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon
numbers. On the eve of the COVID–19
(ABC) and Newry, Mourne & Down
pandemic, close to 1 million residents
(NMD) council areas. This problem is
of the Corridor were in work. An even
often correlated with high levels of
larger number of jobs are located on
people with no formal qualifications and
the Corridor, pulling in numbers of
difficulties faced in retraining, and this
commuters, particularly to Belfast
poses the question of how to improve
and Dublin at either end.
employability opportunities for up toCurrent Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 9
two fifths of residents in some places. In commuting patterns and in–migration
any recovery from a COVID–19 recession, from off the island. At present, more
these issues will also never be far away. than 5% of the million plus jobs on the
Corridor are filled by commuters onto
16. More than a third (34%) of the Corridor from other parts of the
residents of the Corridor have island, often with an even higher skills
educational attainments greater than profile than its residents.
NVQ Level 4, a share of the population
ahead of other parts of the island. 19. The demand for skills has partly
Although this share varies from 40% in been a result of a strong pipeline of
Dublin or Fingal to less than 30% in ABC inward investment jobs in recent years.
and Louth, and the share also varies This has been especially the case in
within individual Council areas, the Belfast, Dublin, Louth and, to a lesser
overall picture is of a well–educated extent, Meath. These location choices are
population which is available for work. supported by the recent results from FDI
Intelligence which found that the two
17. The presence of such a population cities feature prominently among the
– young and relatively well–educated – cities of choice globally. Dublin is No.1
is certainly a strength for the Corridor among the ‘large cities’ locations, while
as skills (or the availability of these) Belfast is No.2 among ‘mid–sized and
is regularly cited by businesses – both small cities’. Both cities score highest on
large and small – as a key challenge. what is called ‘business friendliness’, but
However, in every Council area on the less so on connectivity, suggesting one
Corridor, the demand for NVQ level 4 challenge to future potential.
and higher skills has been greater than
the supply. As the economy slowly 20. Of course, the inward investment
recovers from the shock in 2020, this pipeline is one that cannot be taken for
demand/supply imbalance is likely to granted. The Corridor faces different
return unless an opportunity is taken challenges at either end: an uncertainty
to address it. The voracious appetite of how far the Brexit NI Protocol will
businesses for talent will not slacken, benefit NI locations; and internal
even at a time when we might be competitiveness issues, in particular
looking at high levels of unemployment. around the availability and the costs
The current recognition of this issue by of suitable commercial property.
local authorities across the Corridor,
many of whom have developed skills 21. Beyond FDI, the enterprise base
strategies or skills fora to address the on the Corridor has been a buoyant
challenge of future skills, is work that one. Almost 2 in 5 (38%) of the island’s
will continue to be important in order to businesses are located there and the
stay out in front of competing regions. rates of firms per capita are strong too.
The Corridor, as a whole, has a higher
18. Currently, the question of the share of mid–sized businesses (with
ready supply, access and shortage between 50 and 250 employees) than
of advanced and intermediate skills elsewhere, which may point to the
on the Corridor is being answered by successful scaling–up processes there.10 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
22. However, the business Future prospects for the
demography patterns mirror the Dublin–Belfast Economic
economic divergence between North
Corridor?
and South. There are much higher
birth rates and enterprise stocks in
24. Before the COVID–19 emergency
Council areas in the southern end
began, the research included a series
of the Corridor than in Belfast and
of population and employment
others, reflecting other findings around
forecasts out to 2040, which were
entrepreneurship and appetite for risk.
based upon ‘baseline’ or ‘current
The scaling–up processes also appear
trends’ assumptions, while adjusting
on first look to be differing between
for potential impacts of Brexit.2
North and South, which may impact
in turn on innovation, export intensity
25. The pre–COVID ‘baseline’ scenario
and levels of productivity.
still contains some trends that are useful
to consider. The forecasts pointed to
23. Alongside the recent positive
the current divergence in growth rates
performance, there have been
between NI and Ireland continuing.
challenges facing the Corridor before
They also found that the Corridor would
the public health crisis. These are
continue its trajectory to becoming
associated with demographics and will
the location for a third of the island’s
remain after the Coronavirus. There are
population, perhaps reaching a total
particular challenges around housing
of 2.5 million people by 2040. And,
provision (which could worsen in the
even allowing for the severe shock
short term), affordability of this for the
of COVID–19, the ‘baseline’ scenario
‘adult’ life cycle group, in particular, and
identifies the possibility that 35%
slower population growth in Belfast
of the island’s jobs – nearly 1.3 million
city than in its neighbouring Council
jobs – could be located on the Corridor
areas. In line with elsewhere, rising
by 2040.
dependency ratios (ratio of the young
and old on the working age population)
26. None of this should underestimate
pose healthcare and employment
the economic impact of a COVID–19
issues for local and central government.
related recession. The estimates of
These trends pose questions for future
impact on GDP/GVA in both parts of the
planning, service provision and measures
island, at time of publication, hover at an
to deal with increasing congestion.
11% decline in NI and an export and fall
in Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) of
5.4% in the Republic of Ireland in 2020.
Uncertainty hangs over the shape of
any recovery in 2021 and beyond and,
as noted above, perhaps as many as
30% of the jobs in the Corridor may be
impacted, temporarily or otherwise, by
furloughs and lay–offs.
2 The scenario used forecasts/projections out to 2040 from UUEPC’s Summer 2019 Outlook for NI and from the
long–term forecasts for Ireland from the ESRI (Bergin et al, 2016).Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 11
27. Expectations for a strong recovery professionals. Indeed, this shift to higher
hinge on the success of the vaccine skilled jobs is likely to accelerate as a
programme, and these have become result of the pandemic. This points to
more optimistic since the turn of the the need to create a higher educational
year. Even so, many forecasters still attainment profile than exists at
do not expect economic output to present in the Corridor.
recover to 2019 levels until next year
at the earliest. The extent to which the 31. While this report did develop a
economy in the Dublin–Belfast Corridor ‘baseline’ or ‘current trends’ scenario
can restore its place as a driver to the before COVID–19, there are at least two
island’s economies may help dictate the alternative scenarios which should be
speed and sustainability of the recovery. developed in any subsequent research:
• One alternative is to hold
28. Allowing for the excess death the all–island population and
impacts of COVID–19, it remains clear employment totals constant but to
that all cohorts of the population will propose different types of spatial
increase with working age population development, where the Belfast–
providing a strong labour force into Dublin Economic Corridor accounts
the future. One pattern to note is that for or takes a greater (or smaller)
there will continue to be stronger share of total growth than in the
growth demographically in the southern ‘current trends’ scenario. This might
part of the Corridor, when compared arise due to planning policies or an
to the northern section. Another is industrial strategy based principally
that the growth patterns in the two on further developing agglomeration
cities are likely to continue to be or high growth regions (Katz &
outstripped by neighbouring areas, Wagner, 2014).
pointing again to the need for • Another alternative is that the
sustainable transport options. forecasts would include the
additional impacts of any
29. And although the pandemic means infrastructure investment or other
that we are likely to avoid a tight labour policy interventions on the Corridor.
market for a number of years again, the There is an argument that these
Corridor will see a continuing strong would create higher growth not
demand for skills. Between expansion only for the region but the island
demand and replacement demand (as as a whole. An alternative scenario
measured in a future skills assessment), like this would require details
there may be an annual net requirement on the proposed investments or
of 30–40,000 people from education interventions, which could then be
and net migration for the Corridor. built into the modelling of a ‘high
growth’ scenario.
30. Much of this net requirement
or demand will be in the professional
occupations, such as science &
technology professionals, health
professionals and business & service12 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Attractiveness
to FDI
Connections to
Population
the world (ports
growth
and airports)
Agglomeration Educational
economies and attainment of
clustering population
Figure A1: Summary of the strengths of the Corridor
Strengths of the Corridor also has its local concentrations in ABC,
and sectoral priorities Louth and Meath.
32. Figure A1 summarises the 34. Alongside these concentrations
general strengths of the Corridor as it the Councils themselves have identified
is currently functioning, highlighting sectoral priorities for their areas, based
demographic trends, skills levels and on current strengths and aspirations
connectivity. These strengths hold even around capturing emerging sectoral
in light of the current events and public trends. The aim here is to develop
health crisis. networks and clusters of firms and
related research strengths. These
33. The report identifies the sectoral typically reflect the concentrations in
concentrations and strengths in the tradeable services, though at a more
Corridor, particularly across tradeable granular level the likes of cyber security
services (including ICT, Professional (Belfast), creative industries (Dublin
Services and Financial Services), as and Belfast), ‘digital’ (ABC, Louth and
well as high tech Manufacturing and NMD), all feature. Showing the general
Construction. Concentration analysis importance of Agri–Food, in spite of
show how the services sectors are threats from Brexit, Louth, ABC and
particularly strong in individual Council Meath all regard this as a continuing
areas such as Dublin, Fingal and, to a priority sector for them.
lesser extent, Belfast. ManufacturingCurrent Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 13
35. One sector that is ubiquitous such as education and health
and important to every Council area structures or organisations.
is Tourism with 68,000 jobs currently
located across the Corridor in this 38. The report includes a short
sector. In 2019, almost 11 million assessment of the current state and
trips were made in the Corridor, with performance of the transport assets
access onto the island being especially (detailed in Box 1 in the full report)
beneficial. A high proportion of these and the importance of national and
in the two cities but opportunities also EU investment programmes for these.
for the development of niche tourism This assessment shows how the
packages in areas in between. This Corridor has a varying level of transport
sector has been severely impacted connectivity depending upon the mode
by COVID–19 given social distancing of travel. Connectivity off the island,
measures and restrictions on international through five different ports and three
travel and congregation in hotels, airports, is well–served although access
restaurants and pubs. Supporting to some or all of these assets is an
the sector through what is likely to issue, as is the performance of public
be a second difficult 2021 season and transport along the Corridor.
assisting it to refocus again on the
domestic market is probably key in 39. ‘Soft’ infrastructure refers less to
the short term. physical engineering projects and more
to the institutional, educational and
36. Figure A1 also identifies the research supports which could enable
importance of agglomeration economies economic development. The Corridor
or the benefits of location in a same is well–endowed in these with five
area/city, or in proximity to firms university campuses, a technological
in your sector or related sectors university and an Institute of Technology
(Duranton and Kerr, 2016). The are located there, all bar one of these
advantage of these agglomeration in Dublin and Belfast alone. Just over
economies is the opportunity to 110,000 students were enrolled in
promote areas in certain ways as the these institutions in the 2018/2019
location for certain activities or to build academic year, but the potential goes
research, innovation and capabilities wider than that. Research contributions
infrastructure to support current from the HEIs can act a particular
economic growth and find sources asset for the Corridor, as they house
of future accelerated development. numerous research and incubation
centres, and facilitate public and private
37. Development plans for Corridors collaborations through their Technology
often begin with a plan to mobilise key Transfer Offices.
‘hard’ and ‘soft’ infrastructure assets in
order to support such agglomeration
economies. The first category includes
physical infrastructure such as roads,
bridges, ports and so on, while the
second are enabling institutions,14 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Developing
RD&I centres of
excellence
Refocus on Developing
environmental future-proofed
management and skills
resilience
Alignment Moving from
in support for priority sectors
entrepreneurship to clusters
Figure A2: Summary of opportunity areas for cooperation in the Corridor
Potential areas for cooperation 41. The potential areas shown in
Figure A2 are organised under two
40. The final section of the full report key themes for cooperation. These are:
proposes a number of broad areas and
possible actions which might be used as • Promotion: Many of the economic
a beginning of a discussion of potential corridors have pursued the goal of
cooperation along the Corridor. These successfully branding and promoting
arise from different sources: proposals their location. This is often done for
from the Councils and universities the purposes of attracting investment
involved in the network;3 areas identified from both inward private and
in the research, such as ‘soft’ and hard’ domestic public sources. The focus
infrastructural improvements, which have for promotion differs from place
underpinned successful interventions to place but there is a tendency to
in other economic corridors; and areas promote the presence of a highly
which the current profile and future skilled workforce and population, of
prospects of the Corridor suggest, sectoral strengths (eg: Medicon Valley
such as skills development. All of the in Oresund), and the availability
areas are included on the basis that of supports for innovative and
they could deliver additional economic entrepreneurial firms.
value to the region and the island
more generally.
3 An initial workshop in September 2018 for Council officers from across the Corridor identified a number of priority
areas shared in common. These were revisited at a later workshop held in May 2019 which discussed the draft final report.
The common priorities arise from Local Economic Development and Community Plans, as well as the City Deals under
development in NI.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 15 • Infrastructure: In some economic 42. The potential for cooperation corridors (such as Oresund or the highlights the need for partnership not proposed Oxford/Milton Keynes/ only between local authorities but with Cambridge arc) the emphasis is other key institutions on the Corridor increasingly on the ‘soft’ forms of (e.g. HE institutions). Partnership and infrastructure, such as research a cooperative approach can also shift and innovation centres, Smart the focus of attention from an individual Cities initiatives, and investment place or individual firm to a region and in environmental and energy clusters or networks of businesses. management projects. Growth corridors in East Asia and examples 43. This points to meeting the such as the Basel Tri–national challenge of managing a variety of Agglomeration and the ‘Cascadia’ relationships between a variety of Seattle/Vancouver Corridor have stakeholders, HE institutions, Councils all based cooperation on networks and businesses. These relationships of research institutes, knowledge can tend to rely on individuals but there transfers and joint research are examples of successful institutional programmes in order to benefit the partnerships, for example the Green larger region. ‘Hard’ infrastructure, Way in Dublin, that indicate that such as transport connectivity, successful private sector, local authority has also been crucial to corridor and university partnerships are possible. development and will involve advocacy by the network partners at a regional and national level for further investment.
This Executive Summary was published at the launch of the Dublin Belfast Economic Corridor that took place on 24th March 2021 www.dbec.info/launch An electronic copy of this Executive Summary, and the Full Report, is available to download from www.dbec.info A partnership between
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