The Future (of Software Development) - ROD COPE, CTO | NOVEMBER 2019
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The Future (of Software Development)
ROD COPE, CTO | NOVEMBER 2019
© 2019 Perforce Software, Inc.
“The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.”
- William Gibson
Introduction
Why You Should Believe Me
• 38 years in software
• 20 years as CTO of software companies
• Currently: Perforce (acquired Rogue Wave Software)
• Founder and CTO of OpenLogic (Open Source space)
• Prior: IBM, IBM Global Services, General Electric, Anthem
• Direct work with Gartner, Forrester, IDC, Red Monk, others
• Speak at and attend *lots* of conferences over the last 20 years
• Tech, business, web, mobile, embedded, enterprise, startup
• AI, block chain, AR/VR, UX, big data, front end, back end
• I have short hair, glasses, and a goatee
4 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
QCon New York 2018 conference web site 5 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
Context: Hardware
NVIDIA PEGASUS
• 320 trillion ops/sec
• > 1 TB/sec memory
• 500 watts
IBM Blue Gene in 2005 (World’s #1 supercomputer):
• 280.6 trillion ops/sec
• 130,000+ CPU’s
• 2500 sq. ft.
• 756,334 watts
NVIDIA ORIN
• 2 x Pegasus
Human brain
• 50TB
• 38P Ops/sec
• 20-30 watts
IBM brain chip (Oct 2018)
• 200x on AI algorithms vs.
conventional chips
8 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
Context: Software
2011
Hungry software companies
Everybody’s In Software
By end of 2018, every enterprise will be a
“software” company.
Development team sizes will double in companies
pursuing Digital Transformation.
Recruiting developers will be a CEO Top 5 strategy
for success.
12 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com$125m tech investment fund
14 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
15 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
10X
???
1X
2005 - 2015 2015 - 2025
* Forrester
16 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comInternet Users
8B
3.8 B
2017 2025
17 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
SingularityHubInternet Startup Cost
$5m
$5k
2000 2018
18 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
SingularityHubCrowdfunding
$300B
$34B
2017 2025
19 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
SingularityHubBy 2021, “Multiplied Innovation” business models will drive a 10X
increase in (highly verticalized) apps and services, and lead to over
half of the global economy being digitized.
- IDCBy 2021, “Multiplied Innovation” business models will drive a 10X
increase in (highly verticalized) apps and services, and lead to over
half of the global economy being digitized.
- IDC500 500
million million
apps apps
1978 - 2018 2018 - 2023
* IDC
22 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com23 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
Gartner: No More Traditional “Applications” 24 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
API MANAGEMENT
Security
• External focus Mediation Transformation Orchestration
Traffic
Analytics
management
• Central/one
• Security API API API
• Stability service service service
SERVICE MESH
Security
• Internal focus Traffic management Policies Telemetry
• Decentral/many
• Availability Microservice Microservice Microservice
• Flexibility Sidecar Sidecar Sidecar
Control plane“By 2019, more than 90% of organizations that try
microservices will find the paradigm too disruptive and
use miniservices instead.”
- GartnerHardware: Next
Qubits Classical bits required to represent an entangled state
2 512 bits
3 1024 bits
10 16 KB
16 1 MB
20 17 MB
30 17 GB
35 550 GB
100 More than # atoms in planet Earth
280 More than # atoms in the universe
32 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comMicrosoft New Language 33 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
By 2030, quantum computing will be a
“revolutionary technology”.
- GartnerBy 2030, quantum computing will be a
“revolutionary technology”.
The only others are the Industrial Revolution,
World War 2, and the Internet.
- GartnerSoftware: Next
Security Nobody cares until you fail, then they leave you
© 2019 Perforce Software, Inc.
It looks like you’re trying to shop. Want assistance?
Shoes video
Good choice – they’re confirmed to arrive in time for next week’s hike I went ahead and ordered coordinating socks so you’ll be all set to go! And I put the $225 on your Apple account so you could earn enough iStuff points to take another iVacation!
As a user
I want to achieve my goal quickly
So that I can get on with my life
46 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comArtificial Intelligence
“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.”
- Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO
2017https://www.morancerf.com/automation 49 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
“Immediately hire 2-8 recent CS grads with AI specialty.”
- GartnerDeveloper “AI”
Bots:
• Perform actions: build, deploy, incorporate production data
• Enforce standards: require tests that pass, code reviews
• Enforce guidelines: docs, deprecation notices
• Automate: visual testing via diffs, Storybook tests, mock data
52 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comStorybook 53 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
Developer “AI”
Results:
• Better process adherence, consistency, quality
• Bring junior/new devs up to speed quickly
• GitHub, Slack, and IDE plugins
• Easier to keep up with changes/harder to ignore new rules
54 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comDeveloper “AI”
Apollo GraphQL plugin for VSCode
• Critique code,
estimate performance
and security
• Better tool integration
55 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com56 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit reality”, or fake content,
will outpace AI's ability to detect it.
-GartnerAlphaGo 60 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
AlphaGo Zero 61 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
AlphaZero 62 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
AI and Open Source ?!
• AI2
• TensorFlow • OpenCog • Mycroft AI
• DMTK
• MXNet • NuPIC • Alchemy
• Unity ML agents
• CNTK • Oryx 2 • OpenNN
• Facebook open
• OpenAI • SystemML • OpenCyc
AI hardware
• Mahout • Rasa • Deeplearning4j
• Common Voice
• Torch • Char-rnn • Caffe
• PaddlePaddle
• Keras • Healthcare.ai • H2O
• SingularityNET
• MLlib • Open Face • Cogitai
• …
• Theano • OpenEAR • Contrax Suite
• 8,800+ others
64 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com“By 2030, potential contribution to the global economy
from AI is $15.7 trillion.”
- PwC“While 16% of U.S. jobs will be lost over the next
decade as the result of artificial intelligence and
technology, 13.6 million jobs will be created
during that time due to the trend.”
- Forrester
Lost: 16% == 20.8 million | Gained: 13.6 million
66 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general
intelligence of an average human being.”
- Marvin Minsky
(1970)Humanity 2.0
Getting there from here
Near Term Activity Points the Way
• November 2018: Apollo GraphQL library hits 500K downloads/week
• By 2020, progressive web apps will have replaced 50% of general-purpose,
consumer-facing mobile apps.
• By 2021, 80% of emerging technologies will have AI foundations.
• By 2021, > 50% enterprises spend more yearly on bots/chatbot creation
than traditional mobile app dev.
76 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comChallenges
Engineers can’t know everything
• ”Full stack”: front end, back end, business logic, OS
• Performance, security, scalability, reliability,
monitoring, operations
• UX, UI, offline, cloud, real-time
• AI, data science
• Quantum computing
Engineers must know everything
• Breadth is critical (full stack, polyglot)
• Depth is critical (develop strength somewhere)
77 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comAction plan
• Maximize your value
• Rare/valuable: UX, AI
• Stepping stone technologies
• PWA, SPA offline first no
latency (fast/buggy vs slow)
• GraphQL easier to leverage
API’s faster TTM
• AI tool of choice anticipate
user need better UXAction Plan (cont).
• Invest in your future
• Train yourself in new tools, languages, frameworks,
platforms
• Don’t reinvent wheels: use OSS, use commercial,
use services
• If you’re in a big company, act like a smaller one
inside of it
• Customers have smartphones and watches with great UX
• Give it to them at work, too
79 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comConclusion
Change + Time Pressure
New Apps New Devs
500 million 1m openings in 2020
New Tech Go Faster
AI, PWA, VR 10x change
81 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comWhat Could Possibly Go Wrong? 82 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com
Software is Growing…FAST
Lines of Code API Growth
Mobile apps Open Source
84 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comSoftware is Growing…FAST
Lines of Code API Growth
Mobile apps Open Source
85 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.comOn the Bright Side…
• UBI – Universal Basic Income
• Demonetization of everything
• Cost of basic living is becoming negligible
• Live anywhere, not just cities
• Telepresence
• Cheap autonomous driving and flying
• Fast, cheap, low earth orbit satellite
Internet everywhere
• Personalized healthcare, long life
• More time for education, recreation,
creative endeavors, discovery
86 | © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc. perforce.com011101011
“The future has not been written.
There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.”
- John ConnorQuestions? © 2019 Perforce Software, Inc.
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