The Global Investment Outlook - RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee - NEW YEAR 2021

 
The Global Investment Outlook - RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee - NEW YEAR 2021
The Global
Investment Outlook
RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee

NEW YEAR 2021
The RBC GAM Investment
Strategy Committee
The RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee        These include:
consists of senior investment professionals      ●● therecommended mix of cash, fixed income
drawn from all areas of RBC GAM. The               instruments, and equities
Committee regularly receives economic and
                                                 ●● therecommended global exposure of fixed
capital markets related input from internal
                                                   income and equity portfolios
and external sources. Important guidance
                                                 ●● theoptimal term structure for fixed income
is provided by the Committee’s regional
equity advisors (North America, Europe, Asia,      investments
Emerging Markets) and from the Global Fixed      ●● the
                                                      suggested sector and geographic make-
Income & Currencies sub-committee. From            up within equity portfolios
this, the Committee builds a detailed global     ●● the   preferred exposure to major currencies
investment forecast looking one year forward.
                                                 Results of the Committee’s deliberations are
The Committee’s view includes an assessment      published quarterly in The Global Investment
of global fiscal and monetary conditions,        Outlook.
projected economic growth and inflation, as
well as the expected course of interest rates,
major currencies, corporate profits and stock
prices.

From this global forecast, the RBC GAM
Investment Strategy Committee develops
specific guidelines that can be used to manage
portfolios.
Contents

2    Executive Summary                                     47   Currency Markets
     The Global Investment Outlook                              U.S. dollar in decline
     Eric Savoie, MBA, CFA – Investment Strategist,             Dagmara Fijalkowski, MBA, CFA – Head,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.                           Global Fixed Income and Currencies,
                                                                RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
     Daniel E. Chornous, CFA – Chief Investment Officer,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.                           Daniel Mitchell, CFA – Portfolio Manager,
                                                                RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
4    Economic & Capital Markets Forecasts
                                                                Regional Equity Market Outlook
     RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee
                                                           54   United States
5    Recommended Asset Mix                                      Brad Willock, CFA – V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager,
                                                                RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
     RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee
                                                           56   Canada
10   Capital Markets Performance
                                                                Sarah Neilson, CFA – Portfolio Manager,
     Milos Vukovic, MBA, CFA –                                  RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
     V.P. & Head of Investment Policy,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.                           Irene Fernando, CFA – Portfolio Manager,
                                                                RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
     Aaron Ma, CFA –
     Senior Analyst, Investment Strategy,                  58   Europe
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
                                                                David Lambert – Senior Portfolio Manager,
                                                                European Equities,
     Global Investment Outlook                                  RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited
13   Economic Outlook
                                                           60   Asia
     Hope swells for 2021                                       Chris Lai
     Eric Lascelles – Chief Economist,                          Analyst, Asian Equities,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.                           RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited

28   Market Outlook                                        62   Emerging Markets
     Vaccine brings normalization into view and boosts          Veronique Erb – Portfolio Manager,
                                                                Emerging Market Equities,
     optimism for 2021
                                                                RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited
     Eric Savoie, MBA, CFA – Investment Strategist,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
     Daniel E. Chornous, CFA – Chief Investment Officer,   64   RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

43   Global Fixed Income Markets
     Soo Boo Cheah, MBA, CFA – Senior Portfolio Manager,
     RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited

     Suzanne Gaynor – V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

     Taylor Self, MBA – Associate Portfolio Manager,
     RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

                                                                       THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 1
Executive Summary

                                       Looking past COVID-19 to an               to remain low, there is the potential
Eric Savoie, MBA, CFA                  improving outlook for 2021                for prices to rise faster than our
Investment Strategist                  The pandemic remains the key              forecasts, and an environment of too
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.       challenge for economies as we             much inflation would be worse than
Daniel E. Chornous, CFA                approach the New Year, with case          not enough. Note that it is normal for
Chief Investment Officer               counts and fatalities reaching near       the balance of risks to lean toward the
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.                                                 downside as there are usually more
                                       record levels. But the transmission
                                       rate is starting to slow and, while       ways for the economy to stumble
                                       countries including the U.S. and          than to outperform meaningfully. We
Buoyed by ultra-low interest           Canada are battling a second wave,        should, though, also consider the
rates and fiscal stimulus,             many European countries appear            possibilities for better-than-expected
financial markets calmed and           to be emerging from theirs. Tighter       outcomes. The virus could retreat
stocks rose to record levels           restrictions to combat the virus may      on its own or vaccines could be
as economic normalization              lead to some economic slippage at the     administered flawlessly. Other sources
drew closer and the recovery           end of 2020, but there are reasons to     of uncertainty include the amount
                                       be optimistic. The economic recovery      and timing of U.S. fiscal stimulus,
progressed.
                                       has been exceeding expectations,          Brexit and structural themes related
                                       vaccine developments are promising        to demographics, high debt loads and
                                       and markets have responded                globalization.
                                       positively to the outcome of the U.S.
                                       presidential election. Although the       Inflation gains traction but not
                                       economy may encounter hurdles in the      to problematic levels
                                       very near term, our growth forecasts      Our thinking about inflation has
                                       for 2021 have featured more upgrades      evolved over the past quarter. We
                                       than downgrades and are now situated      correctly predicted inflation would be
                                       modestly above the consensus.             low amid the pandemic, with falling
                                                                                 oil prices and plunging demand. More
                                       A variety of risks threaten               recently, though, inflation has begun to
                                       our base case, but upside                 stabilize as economic conditions have
                                       surprises are also possible               normalized. Our forecasts for inflation
                                       We think the risks to our benign base     in 2020 and 2021 point to slightly
                                       case scenario are slightly skewed         higher inflation and we recognize
                                       to the downside. The virus is still       that a weaker U.S. dollar and the
                                       spreading and colder winter weather in    outperformance of the U.S. economy
                                       the northern hemisphere could worsen      may support faster price increases in
                                       the situation. It is also possible that   the U.S. versus elsewhere. Over the
                                       a third wave of infections emerges        longer term, potential upside risks
                                       in the spring as happened in the 1918     to inflation exist. Massive monetary
                                       flu pandemic. Moreover, sentiment         stimulus, higher inflation targeting
                                       around vaccines is extremely positive,    by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed),
                                       but a return to normal could be           elevated government-debt loads and
                                       delayed should they cause unexpected      a push to support sales of American-
                                       side-effects or prove less effective      made products are all elements that
                                       than hoped, or should distribution        could push inflation higher than
                                       complications slow the pace of            we would have thought before the
                                       inoculations. While we expect inflation   pandemic. That said, we don’t think

2 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Executive Summary | Eric Savoie, MBA, CFA | Daniel E. Chornous, CFA

inflation will rise to problematic levels   projections. As a result, we now look          superior return potential versus
as a number of structural forces such       for a more gradual and ultimately              fixed income. Our forecasts look for
as demographics will continue to weigh      smaller rise in real rates of interest.        mid-single to potentially low-double
on inflation pressures. All in all, any     Our new modelling suggests that                digit returns from stocks over the
faster inflation that we do encounter       sovereign bond yields everywhere will          year ahead versus low single-digit
is likely to be simply a return to more     drift just slightly higher over the next       or potentially negative returns from
normal readings after decades of            year, acting as a modest headwind to           sovereign bonds. Moreover, extremely
subdued price increases.                    total returns for bondholders.                 low bond yields mean that fixed-
                                                                                           income markets may not provide as
U.S. dollar weakness ahead                  Global equities soar to new                    much protection against stock declines
We expect a sustained U.S.-dollar           highs and vaccines trigger                     as they have in recent decades. In our
decline in 2021 as structural headwinds     style rotation                                 opinion, traditional views on optimal
take precedence over short-term             Stocks surged from their March lows            asset mix should be reconsidered to
factors that have slowed the decline of     due to a combination of massive                reflect the impact of structural change
the greenback over the past year. U.S.      stimulus, a gradual reopening of               in the global economy on returns,
twin deficits and the Fed’s intention       economies and, more recently, the              correlations and risk mitigation within
to boost inflation, coupled with            promise of imminent vaccines. The              the universe of investment options. For
economic and political improvements         latest rally pushed the S&P 500 Index          many, one option may be to invest over
and extraordinarily easy financial          to a new record and many other                 longer time horizons and add more
conditions, should cement the U.S.-         markets are also showing gains this            equities to portfolios.
dollar downtrend. Emerging-market           year. We recognize that optimism
                                                                                           Supporting our positive view on stocks
currencies are likely to finally shine      is elevated and, while stocks may
                                                                                           is long-term price momentum, which
next year, and the euro, yen and loonie     be expensive by some measures,
                                                                                           suggests equities could be in a long
should outperform the British pound.        investors are paying up for a recovery
                                                                                           lasting bull market. We continue
                                            in earnings that is just beginning. In
                                                                                           to position our portfolios with an
Bond yields hover around                    fact, outside of U.S. large-cap stocks,
                                                                                           overweight in stocks and underweight
historic lows, scope for                    markets remain attractively positioned
                                                                                           in fixed income. This quarter, we
increase is limited                         with many below the mid-point of our
                                                                                           were further encouraged by the style
Central bankers have expressed              fair value bands. The equity-market
                                                                                           rotation into value from growth, the
a commitment to keeping short-              rally has broadened from a handful
                                                                                           increasing breadth in small- and
term interest rates extremely low to        of U.S. mega-cap technology stocks
                                                                                           mid-cap stocks, international equity
stimulate economies and financial           to a much larger base of companies,
                                                                                           outperformance, the steepening yield
markets even as the recovery gains          industries and regions that are more
                                                                                           curve and the weakening U.S. dollar, all
traction. Longer-term bond yields have      economically sensitive, including
                                                                                           of which are frequently in evidence in
a bit more room to rise, but the scope      value, small- and mid-cap stocks, as
                                                                                           the early stages of bull markets. As a
for increases is limited by secular         well as segments that were hardest hit
                                                                                           result, we added 2.5 percentage points
pressures such as aging demographics,       by COVID-19 such as airlines, hotels,
                                                                                           to our equity allocation during the
slowing population growth and an            casinos and energy.
                                                                                           quarter, sourced from fixed income.
increased desire for saving versus                                                         For a balanced, global investor, we
spending. All of these factors have         Asset mix – boosting equity
                                                                                           currently recommend an asset mix
contributed to declines in real interest    overweight, sourced from
                                                                                           of 64.5 percent equities (strategic
rates (i.e. the after-inflation interest    fixed income
                                                                                           neutral position: 60 percent) and 34.5
rate) and these trends are unlikely to      With the economy entering a period             percent fixed income (strategic neutral
change anytime soon. We have evolved        of normalization supported by low              position: 38 percent), with the balance
our modelling to incorporate these          interest rates and ample fiscal                in cash.
elements into our real-interest-rate        stimulus, stocks continue to offer

                                                                             THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 3
Economic & Capital Markets Forecasts

                                 Economic forecast (RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee)
                     United                                                       United                                                                 Emerging
                     States             Canada               Europe              Kingdom                 Japan                    China                  markets*
                     Change        Change        Change        Change        Change        Change        Change
                      from          from          from          from          from          from          from
             New Year Fall New Year Fall New Year Fall New Year Fall New Year Fall New Year Fall New Year Fall
               2021   2020   2021   2020   2021   2020   2021   2020   2021   2020   2021   2020   2021   2020
Real GDP
   2019A       2.16%                1.66%               1.30%                1.25%                0.69%                       6.12%                  4.47%
   2020E      (3.50%)     2.50     (5.50%)     1.50     (7.20%)    (0.20)   (10.90%)    (1.90)   (5.30%)         N/C          1.90%    0.65          (2.20%)    (0.50)
   2021E       4.00%      0.60     5.00%       0.50     5.60%       2.30     6.60%       1.40     3.70%      2.30             9.00%       1.00       7.40%      0.80
CPI
   2019A       1.81%                1.96%                1.19%               1.79%                0.49%                       2.90%                  3.19%
   2020E       1.10%      0.30      0.70%     (0.10)    0.30%       N/C      0.80%       N/C      0.00%      0.20             2.70%   (0.30)         3.10%       N/C
   2021E       1.80%      0.30      1.60%      0.10     1.00%       N/C      1.60%       0.10     0.50%          N/C          1.90%   (0.40)         2.60%      (0.30)
A = Actual E = Estimate *GDP Weighted Average of China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico and Russia.

                                            Targets (RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee)
                                                                                   Forecast                  Change from                         1-year total return
                                                       Nov. 2020                   Nov. 2021                  Fall 2020                            estimate* (%)
 Currency Markets against USD
 CAD (USD–CAD)                                             1.30                         1.27                       (0.02)                                2.7
 EUR (EUR–USD)                                             1.19                         1.27                           N/C                               5.7
 JPY (USD–JPY)                                          104.32                         99.00                           N/C                               5.1
 GBP (GBP–USD)                                             1.33                         1.33                       (0.03)                              (0.3)
 Fixed Income Markets
 U.S. Fed Funds Rate                                       0.13                         0.13                           N/C                              N/A
 U.S. 10-Year Bond                                         0.84                         1.00                           0.25                             (0.7)
 Canada Overnight Rate                                     0.25                         0.25                           N/C                              N/A
 Canada 10-Year Bond                                       0.67                         0.85                           0.15                             (1.0)
 Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate                           (0.50)                       (0.50)                          N/C                              N/A
 Germany 10-Year Bund                                     (0.57)                       (0.40)                      (0.10)                               (2.3)
 U.K. Base Rate                                            0.10                         0.10                           N/C                              N/A
 U.K. 10-Year Gilt                                         0.31                         0.30                       (0.10)                               0.4
 Japan Overnight Call Rate                                (0.03)                       (0.10)                          N/C                              N/A
 Japan 10-Year Bond                                        0.03                         0.05                           0.05                             (0.1)
 Equity Markets
 S&P 500                                                   3622                        3800                            125                               6.5
 S&P/TSX Composite                                        17190                        17700                           1000                              6.1
 MSCI Europe                                                129                          136                            8                                8.1
 FTSE 100                                                 6266                         6500                            350                               7.1
 Nikkei                                                  26434                       28250                             3650                              8.4
 MSCI Emerging Markets                                     1205                        1300                            125                              10.0

 *Total returns are expressed in local currencies with the exception of MSCI Emerging Markets whose return is expressed in USD. Source: RBC GAM

4 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Recommended Asset Mix

Asset mix – the allocation within portfolios to stocks,                 based on our current view of the economy and
bonds and cash – should include both strategic and                      return expectations for the major asset classes.
tactical elements. Strategic asset mix addresses the                    These weights are further divided into recommended
blend of the major asset classes offering the risk/                     exposures to the variety of global fixed income and
return tradeoff best suited to an investor’s profile. It                equity markets. Our recommendation is targeted at
can be considered to be the benchmark investment                        the Balanced profile where the benchmark setting is
plan that anchors a portfolio through many business                     60% equities, 38% fixed income, 2% cash.
and investment cycles, independent of a near-term
view of the prospects for the economy and related                       A tactical range of +/- 15% around the benchmark
expectations for capital markets. Tactical asset                        position allows us to raise or lower exposure to
allocation refers to fine tuning around the strategic                   specific asset classes with a goal of tilting portfolios
setting in an effort to add value by taking advantage of                toward those markets that offer comparatively
shorter term fluctuations in markets.                                   attractive near-term prospects.

Every individual has differing return expectations and                  This tactical recommendation for the Balanced profile
tolerances for volatility, so there is no “one size fits                can serve as a guide for movement within the ranges
all” strategic asset mix. Based on a 40-year study of                   allowed for all other profiles.
historical returns1 and the volatility2 of returns (the                 The value-added of tactical strategies is, of course,
range around the average return within which shorter-                   dependent on the degree to which the expected
term results tend to fall), we have developed five                      scenario unfolds.
broad profiles and assigned a benchmark strategic
asset mix for each. These profiles range from very                      Regular reviews of portfolio weights are essential to
conservative through balanced to aggressive growth.                     the ultimate success of an investment plan as they
It goes without saying that as investors accept                         ensure current exposures are aligned with levels of
increasing levels of volatility, and therefore greater                  long-term returns and risk tolerances best suited to
risk that the actual experience will depart from the                    individual investors.
longer-term norm, the potential for returns rises. The
                                                                        Anchoring portfolios with a suitable strategic asset
five profiles presented below may assist investors in
                                                                        mix, and placing boundaries defining the allowed
selecting a strategic asset mix best aligned to their
                                                                        range for tactical positioning, imposes discipline that
investment goals.
                                                                        can limit damage caused by swings in emotion that
Each quarter, the RBC GAM Investment Strategy                           inevitably accompany both bull and bear markets.
Committee publishes a recommended asset mix

1
 Average return: The average total return produced by the asset class over the period 1980 – 2020, based on monthly results.
2
Volatility: The standard deviation of returns. Standard deviation is a statistical measure that indicates the range around the average return
within which 2/3 of results will fall into, assuming a normal distribution around the long-term average.

                                                                                    THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 5
Recommended Asset Mix

Global Asset Mix
                            Benchmark               Past             New Year              Spring            Summer                Fall             New Year
                              Policy               range               2020                 2020              2020                 2020               2021

Cash                           2.0%             1.0% – 16%              1.0%               2.0%                1.0%                1.0%                1.0%

Bonds                         38.0%          25.0% – 54.0%            40.0%               39.0%               38.0%                37.0%              34.5%

Stocks                        60.0%          36.0% – 65.0%             59.0%              59.0%                61.0%               62.0%              64.5%
Note: Effective June 1, 2020, we reset our strategic neutral positions to reflect long-lasting changes in economy and capital markets’ dynamics. Boosting strategic
neutral equity exposure by 5% and reducing fixed income by same amount in our reference balanced portfolio.

Regional Allocation
                              WGBI*                 Past             New Year              Spring            Summer                Fall             New Year
Global Bonds                 Nov. 2020             range               2020                 2020              2020                 2020               2021
North America                  41.1%            18% – 48%              43.8%              44.2%               42.3%                41.3%              41.1%
Europe                         41.0%            32% – 56%              37.7%               37.7%              39.0%                36.0%              41.0%
Asia                           17.8%            16% – 35%              18.5%               18.2%               18.7%               22.7%              17.8%
Note: Past Range reflects historical allocation from Fall 2002 to present.

                              MSCI**                Past             New Year              Spring            Summer                Fall             New Year
Global Equities              Nov. 2020             range               2020                 2020              2020                 2020               2021

North America                  67.0%            51% – 66%              62.5%              63.6%               65.7%                65.4%              66.0%
Europe                         15.3%            15% – 35%              18.6%               17.8%               16.1%               16.2%              14.6%
Asia                           9.4%             9% – 18%               11.4%               11.1%               10.7%               9.8%               10.6%
Emerging Markets               8.3%             0% – 8.8%              7.5%                7.5%                7.5%                8.6%                8.8%
Our asset mix is reported as at the end of each quarter. The mix is fluid and may be adjusted within each quarter, although we do not always report on shifts as
they occur. The weights in the table should be considered a snapshot of our asset mix at the date of release of the Global Investment Outlook.

Global Equity Sector Allocation

                                                     MSCI**              RBC GAM ISC         RBC GAM ISC               Change from              Weight vs.
                                                    Nov. 2020              Fall 2020         New Year 2021              Fall 2020               Benchmark
Energy                                                 2.42%                 1.50%                  0.42%                 (1.07)                   17.5%
Materials                                             4.48%                  4.95%                  5.78%                 0.83                    129.0%
Industrials                                           10.43%                 10.15%                 10.43%                0.28                    100.0%
Consumer Discretionary                                11.88%                 13.29%                 13.88%                0.59                    116.8%
Consumer Staples                                       8.14%                 7.28%                  6.54%                (0.74)                   80.4%
Health Care                                           13.52%                 14.79%                 14.82%                0.03                    109.6%
Financials                                            12.07%                 12.39%                 12.07%               (0.32)                   100.0%
Information Technology                                21.63%                 23.56%                 23.63%                0.06                    109.2%
Communication Services                                 9.22%                 8.17%                  9.22%                  1.04                   100.0%
Utilities                                              3.42%                 2.54%                  2.42%                 (0.12)                  70.7%
Real Estate                                            2.80%                 1.37%                  0.80%                (0.57)                   28.6%
*FTSE World Government Bond Index. **MSCI World Index. Source: RBC GAM Investment Strategy Committee

6 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Recommended Asset Mix

                     At RBC GAM, we have a team dedicated to setting and
         reviewing the strategic asset mix for all of our multi-asset solutions.
          With an emphasis on consistency of returns, risk management and
                  capital preservation, we have developed a strategic asset
          allocation framework for five client risk profiles that correspond to
           broad investor objectives and risk preferences. These five profiles
                                     range from Very Conservative through
                                         Balanced to Aggressive Growth.

Very Conservative
                                                                       Very Conservative investors will
                            Bench-             Last       Current
Asset class                  mark    Range    quarter recommendation   seek income with maximum capital
Cash & Cash Equivalents       2%      0-15%     1.0%       1.0%        preservation and the potential for modest
Fixed Income                 73%     68-88%   72.0%       69.9%        capital growth, and be comfortable with
Total Cash & Fixed Income    75%     60-90%   73.0%       70.9%        small fluctuations in the value of their
Canadian Equities            10%     0-20%     10.6%      11.5%        investments. This portfolio will invest
U.S. Equities                 8%      0-18%    8.6%        9.3%        primarily in fixed-income securities, and
International Equities        7%      0-17%     7.8%       8.3%
                                                                       a small amount of equities, to generate
Emerging Markets              0%       0%
                                                                       income while providing some protection
                                               0.0%       0.0%
                                                                       against inflation. Investors who fit this
Total Equities               25%     10-40%    27.0%      29.1%
                                                                       profile generally plan to hold their
                                              Return     Volatility    investment for the medium to long term.
40-year average                                8.6%        5.3%
Last 12 months                                 7.6%        7.9%

                                                                          THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 7
Recommended Asset Mix

 Conservative
                                                                         Conservative investors will pursue
                              Bench-             Last       Current
  Asset class                  mark    Range    quarter recommendation   modest income and capital growth with
  Cash & Cash Equivalents      2%      0-15%     1.0%       1.0%         reasonable capital preservation, and be
  Fixed Income                 58%     43-83%   57.0%       54.6%        comfortable with moderate fluctuations
  Total Cash & Fixed Income    60%     45-75%   58.0%       55.6%        in the value of their investments. The
  Canadian Equities            13%     3-23%    13.3%       14.2%        portfolio will invest primarily in fixed-
  U.S. Equities                15%     5-25%     15.6%      16.6%        income securities, with some equities, to
  International Equities       12%     2-22%     13.1%      13.6%
                                                                         achieve more consistent performance and
  Emerging Markets             0%       0%       0.0%       0.0%
                                                                         provide a reasonable amount of safety.
                                                                         The profile is suitable for investors who
  Total Equities               40%     25-55%   42.0%      44.4%
                                                                         plan to hold their investment over the
                                                Return     Volatility    medium to long term.
  40-year average                                8.9%        6.4%
  Last 12 months                                 7.8%        10.0%

 Balanced
                                                                         The Balanced portfolio is appropriate
                              Bench-             Last       Current
  Asset class                  mark    Range    quarter recommendation   for investors seeking balance between
  Cash & Cash Equivalents      2%      0-15%     1.0%       1.0%         long-term capital growth and capital
  Fixed Income                 38%     23-53%   37.0%       34.5%        preservation, with a secondary focus on
  Total Cash & Fixed Income    40%     25-55%   38.0%       35.5%        modest income, and who are comfortable
  Canadian Equities            15%     5-25%    14.9%       15.6%        with moderate fluctuations in the value
  U.S. Equities                25%     15-35%   25.6%       26.7%
                                                                         of their investments. More than half
  International Equities       15%     5-25%    16.2%       16.5%
                                                                         the portfolio will usually be invested in
                                                                         a diversified mix of Canadian, U.S. and
  Emerging Markets             5%      0-15%     5.3%       5.7%
                                                                         global equities. This profile is suitable
  Total Equities               60%     45-75%   62.0%       64.5%
                                                                         for investors who plan to hold their
                                                Return     Volatility    investment for the medium to long term.
  40-year average                                9.0%        7.8%
  Last 12 months                                 8.7%        12.9%

8 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Recommended Asset Mix

Growth
                                                                        Investors who fit the Growth profile
                            Bench-              Last       Current
Asset class                  mark    Range     quarter recommendation   will seek long-term growth over capital
Cash & Cash Equivalents      2%       0-15%     1.0%       1.0%         preservation and regular income, and
Fixed Income                 23%     8-38%     22.0%       19.4%        be comfortable with considerable
Total Cash & Fixed Income    25%     10-40%    23.0%       20.4%        fluctuations in the value of their
Canadian Equities            18%     8-28%      17.8%      18.4%        investments. This portfolio primarily
U.S. Equities                30%     20-40%    30.5%       31.7%        holds a diversified mix of Canadian, U.S.
International Equities       19%     9-29%     20.3%       20.6%
                                                                        and global equities and is suitable for
Emerging Markets             8%      0-18%      8.4%       8.9%
                                                                        investors who plan to invest for the
                                                                        long term.
Total Equities               75%     60-90%    77.0%       79.6%

                                               Return     Volatility
40-year average                                 9.0%        9.5%
Last 12 months                                  9.0%        15.2%

Aggressive Growth
                                                                        Aggressive Growth investors seek
                            Bench-              Last       Current
Asset class                  mark    Range     quarter recommendation   maximum long-term growth over capital
Cash & Cash Equivalents      2%      0-15%      1.0%       0.5%         preservation and regular income, and are
Fixed Income                 0%      0-15%      0.0%       0.0%         comfortable with significant fluctuations
Total Cash & Fixed Income    2%      0-17%      1.0%       0.5%         in the value of their investments. The
Canadian Equities            29%     19-39%    28.3%       28.7%        portfolio is almost entirely invested in
U.S. Equities                38%     28-48%    37.9%       38.3%        stocks and emphasizes exposure to
International Equities       20%     10-30%     21.2%      20.8%
                                                                        global equities. This investment profile
Emerging Markets             11%      1-21%     11.6%      11.7%
                                                                        is suitable only for investors with a high
                                                                        risk tolerance and who plan to hold their
Total Equities               98%     83-100%   99.0%       99.5%
                                                                        investments for the long term.
                                               Return     Volatility
40-year average                                 8.9%        12.1%
Last 12 months                                  8.7%        19.5%

                                                                           THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 9
Capital Markets Performance

                                           yield curve steepened. The yield on       Index and the MSCI Pacific Index
                                           the 10-year Treasury bond rose 13         returned 11.8% and 10.3%, respectively.
Milos Vukovic, MBA, CFA
V.P. & Head of Investment Policy           basis points to 84 basis points driven    In the year ended November 30, 2020,
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.           by the optimism around COVID-19           equity indexes recorded solid gains,
Aaron Ma, CFA                              vaccine development. The FTSE             especially in the U.S. and emerging
Senior Analyst, Investment Strategy        European Government Bond Index’s          markets. A notable exception was the
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.           2.1% gain topped other major indexes      MSCI UK Index, which sank 10.7%.
                                           as European bond yields fell when
                                           governments implemented stricter          There was an important shift in size,
The U.S. dollar proved resilient in the    measures to fight the second wave of      style and sector leadership in the
quarter ended November 30, 2020,           COVID-19 infections. On a one-year        quarter ended November 30, 2020. As
amid widespread calls for a broadly        basis, returns to fixed income ranged     vaccine hopes grew, investors began
weaker greenback. The U.S. dollar fell     from 3.4% for the FTSE Japanese           to look beyond the pandemic to a more
1.4% against the Japanese yen and          Government Bond Index to 12.1% for        normal world. Large-cap growth stocks
0.4% against the Canadian dollar but       the FTSE European Government Bond         that boomed for much of 2020 began
remained essentially flat against the      Index, as yields declined in most         to take a backseat to the smaller, more
euro and actually appreciated 0.3%         markets and U.S.-dollar weakness          economically sensitive stocks that had
against the British pound. Diverging       enhanced returns.                         been struggling. The small-cap S&P
inflation expectations between the                                                   600 Index and mid-cap S&P 400 Index
U.S. and Japan have widened the            Global equity markets continued           surged to a 15.5% return and 13.0%
real yield advantage for Japanese          to advance in the fall as promising       return, respectively. The Russell 3000
assets, boosting the yen relative to       COVID-19-vaccine test results and         Value Index returned 9.7% compared
the dollar. The loonie benefited from      clarity around the U.S. presidential      with the Russell 3000 Growth Index’s
the belief that the Canadian economy       election stoked investor confidence.      2.3%.
would recover swiftly due to its higher    All major global stock markets that
                                           we track recorded positive returns        Cyclical sectors like Industrials and
sensitivity to global growth. Concerns
                                           for the quarter ended November 30,        Financials led with double-digit gains
about the disturbing second wave
                                           2020, in U.S.-dollar terms. The S&P       of around 11%, while Information
of COVID-19 in Europe belied the
                                           500 Index rode a 10.8% gain to a new      Technology and Health Care lagged
fundamental support for the single
                                           all-time high in November, good for       with increases of about 2%.The shift
currency, leaving it flat against the
                                           the best November in the benchmark’s      to cyclical sectors, while notable from
greenback. Over a one-year period, the
                                           history. However, the devastating third   a quarterly perspective, is hardly
U.S. dollar depreciated against all four
                                           wave of infections in the U.S. was a      noticeable when looking over a one-
currencies, ranging from 2.2% against
                                           drag on S&P 500 stocks in September       year time frame: the S&P 500 led the
the Canadian dollar to 7.6% versus the
                                           and October, causing the index to         S&P 600 by almost 12 percentage
euro.
                                           finish the quarter in last place among    points; the Russell growth index
All major global bond indexes posted       major global indexes on a total-return    outpaced the Russell value Index by a
positive returns in the latest quarter     basis with a 3.9% gain. Among the         huge 34 percentage-point margin and
in U.S.-dollar terms. Returns on U.S.      best performers were Asian stocks in      the Information Technology sector
government bonds, represented              countries that had relative success in    outperformed Energy by a whopping
by the FTSE U.S. Government Bond           containing the virus. The MSCI Japan      72 percentage points.
Index, were a lackluster 0.6% as the

10 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Capital Markets Performance | Milos Vukovic, MBA, CFA | Aaron Ma, CFA

                                                                        Exchange Rates
                                                          Periods ending November 30, 2020
                            Current                3 months             YTD               1 year                           3 years                 5 years
                             USD                      (%)               (%)                (%)                               (%)                     (%)
USD–CAD                      1.2987                   (0.43)                 0.01                   (2.23)                  0.22                   (0.56)
USD–EUR                      0.8383                   0.04                  (5.96)                  (7.64)                 (0.07)                  (2.40)
USD–GBP                      0.7501                   0.27                  (0.64)                  (2.99)                  0.48                    2.47
USD–JPY                   104.4000                    (1.43)                (3.92)                  (4.62)                 (2.47)                  (3.24)
Note: all changes above are expressed in US dollar terms
                                                                           Canada
                                                               Periods ending November 30, 2020
                                                                             USD                                                         CAD
                                            3 months            YTD         1 year        3 years        5 years       3 months         1 year        3 years
Fixed Income Markets: Total Return             (%)              (%)          (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)
FTSE Canada Univ. Bond Index TR                1.02             8.27         9.43           5.10             4.93         0.58           7.00           5.33
                                                                              U.S.
                                                               Periods ending November 30, 2020
                                                                             USD                                                         CAD
                                            3 months            YTD         1 year        3 years        5 years       3 months         1 year        3 years
Fixed Income Markets: Total Return             (%)              (%)          (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)
FTSE U.S. Government TR                        0.58             7.56         7.47           5.56             4.41         0.14           5.08           5.65
                                      1        0.48             7.36         7.28           5.45             4.34         0.04           4.89           5.69
BBgBarc U.S. Agg. Bond Index TR
                                                                            Global
                                                               Periods ending November 30, 2020
                                                                             USD                                                         CAD
                                            3 months            YTD         1 year        3 years        5 years       3 months         1 year        3 years
Fixed Income Markets: Total Return             (%)              (%)          (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)
FTSE WGBI TR                                   1.23             8.13         8.61           4.59             4.67         0.79           6.19           4.68
FTSE European Government TR                    2.14             11.28        12.13          4.08             5.05         1.69           9.63           4.31
FTSE Japanese Government TR                    1.73             2.89         3.35           3.32             4.75         1.29           1.05           3.55
                                                                           Canada
                                                               Periods ending November 30, 2020
                                                                             USD                                                         CAD
                                            3 months            YTD         1 year        3 years        5 years       3 months         1 year        3 years
Equity Markets: Total Return                   (%)              (%)          (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)
S&P/TSX Composite                              5.37             3.80         6.66           5.32             8.88         4.92           4.28           5.56
S&P/TSX 60                                     4.66             4.09         6.42           5.63              9.26        4.21           4.04           5.86
S&P/TSX Small Cap                             11.88             6.68        15.00           1.01              7.81        11.40         12.43              1.24
                                                                              U.S.
                                                               Periods ending November 30, 2020
                                                                             USD                                                         CAD
                                            3 months            YTD         1 year        3 years        5 years       3 months         1 year        3 years
Equity Markets: Total Return                   (%)              (%)          (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)            (%)
S&P 500 TR                                     3.89            14.02        17.46          13.17          13.99           3.44          14.84          13.42
S&P 400 TR                                    12.97             6.70         9.70           6.26          10.00          12.48           7.25           6.50
S&P 600 TR                                    15.52             2.74         5.81           4.72              9.51       15.02           3.45           4.95
Russell 3000 Value TR                          9.70            (1.16)        1.60           4.93             8.33         9.23          (0.66)          5.17
Russell 3000 Growth TR                         2.27            31.82        35.73          20.86             19.11        1.82          32.71          21.13
NASDAQ Composite Index TR                      3.80            37.09       42.06           22.30          20.31           3.35          38.90          22.57

Note: all rates of return presented for periods longer than 1 year are annualized. 1 Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg. Bond Index TR. Source: RBC GAM

                                                                                               THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 11
Capital Markets Performance | Milos Vukovic, MBA, CFA | Aaron Ma, CFA

                                                                            Global
                                                             Periods ending November 30, 2020
                                                                          USD                                                         CAD
                                       3 months           YTD            1 year         3 years         5 years       3 months       1 year        3 years
Equity Markets: Total Return              (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)            (%)          (%)            (%)
MSCI World TR *                           5.55            11.19          14.52            9.51           10.87              4.98      11.73          9.73
MSCI EAFE TR *                            8.01            3.03            6.37            3.26            6.19              7.42      3.78           3.47
MSCI Europe TR *                          6.74            0.64            4.58           2.49            5.25               6.16      2.03           2.69
MSCI Pacific TR *                        10.33            7.12            9.49           4.56            8.05               9.73      6.83           4.76
MSCI UK TR *                              5.36           (15.10)        (10.73)          (2.53)          0.70               4.79     (12.91)        (2.34)
MSCI France TR *                          11.71           1.20            4.19           3.46             7.70              11.10     1.66           3.66
MSCI Germany TR *                         1.92            5.19            7.21           (0.37)          4.78               1.37      4.60          (0.17)
MSCI Japan TR *                           11.78           9.95           12.24            4.88            7.85              11.17     9.51           5.09
MSCI Emerging Markets TR *                9.71           10.20           18.43            4.92           10.72              9.12     15.54           5.13

                                                                   Global Equity Sectors
                                                             Periods ending November 30, 2020

                                                                          USD                                                         CAD
                                       3 months           YTD            1 year         3 years         5 years       3 months       1 year        3 years
Sector: Total Return                      (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)            (%)          (%)            (%)
Energy TR *                               5.22          (33.91)         (30.38)         (13.43)          (5.73)             4.65    (32.07)        (13.26)
Materials TR *                            8.54           13.30           17.96           6.40            11.95              7.95     15.09           6.61
Industrials TR *                          11.93           9.05           10.14           6.56            10.40              11.33     7.46           6.77
Consumer Discretionary TR *               6.21           29.50           33.34           16.53           14.07              5.64     30.10          16.76
Consumer Staples TR *                     2.41            5.08            7.32            5.75           6.85               1.86      4.71           5.96
Health Care TR *                          2.21            10.12          13.87            11.61          9.54               1.66      11.10         11.83
Financials TR *                           11.35          (7.64)          (4.85)          (0.62)          5.47               10.75    (7.17)         (0.42)
Information Technology TR *               1.97           35.99           41.64           25.00           24.09              1.42     38.19          25.25
Communication Services TR*                5.47           18.59           20.92           11.22           8.66               4.90      17.97         11.44
Utilities TR *                            6.66            2.81            6.81           6.94            9.45               6.09      4.21           7.15
Real Estate TR *                          3.18           (7.04)          (5.97)           2.56            NA                2.62     (8.26)          2.76
* Net of taxes. Note: all rates of return presented for periods longer than 1 year are annualized. Source: Bloomberg/MSCI

12 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Economic Outlook
Hope swells for 2021

Eric Lascelles                                                           Exhibit 1: Global COVID-19 cases and deaths still quite high
Chief Economist
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.                                             700                                                                                                        12

                                               New daily cases (thousands)

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Daily deaths (thousands)
                                                                             600                                                                                                        10
                                                                             500
                                                                                                                                                                                        8
The pandemic that engulfed the world                                         400
in early 2020 is still the dominant issue                                                                                                                                               6
                                                                             300
even as the year winds down. Near-                                                                                                                                                      4
                                                                             200
record numbers of infections and
                                                                             100                                                                                                        2
fatalities continue to be logged across
                                                                                  0                                                                                                     0
the world each day (Exhibit 1), though                                            Jan-20           Mar-20          May-20           Jul-20          Sep-20              Nov-20
the rate of transmission is mercifully                                                     New daily cases, world (LHS)          New daily deaths, world (RHS)
                                                                                   Note: As of 12/2/2020. 7-day moving average of daily new cases and new deaths. Source: CDC,
beginning to decelerate (Exhibit 2).                                               Macrobond, RBC GAM

The status of the pandemic varies
                                                                        Exhibit 2: Global transmission rate declines as countries reimpose
considerably depending on the nation.
                                                                        restrictions
Some countries are still very much
in the midst of an aggressive second                                         3                                                                                                    800

                                                                                                                                                                                        Daily new conÑgmed cases
wave, including the U.S. and Canada.                                                                                                                                              700
                                              Transmission rate

Others, like many Eurozone members,                                                                                                                                               600

                                                                                                                                                                                               (thousands)
                                                                             2                                                                                                    500
appear to be emerging from the worst
of that wave.                                                                                                                                                                     400
                                                                                                                                                                                  300
                                                                              1
The return of stricter social-distancing                                                                                                                                          200
rules to fight this wave are set to inflict                                                                                                                                       100
mild to moderate economic damage at                                          0                                                                                                    0
                                                                             Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20                 Jul-20   Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20                Dec-20
the end of 2020.                                                                  New daily cases, world (RHS)                Transmission rate, world (LHS)
                                                                             Note: As of 12/2/2020. Transmission rate calculated as a 7-day change of underlying 7-day moving average
Nevertheless, on the cusp of 2021,                                           smoothened by a 14-day moving average of new daily cases. Source: ECDC, Macrobond, RBC GAM

we see four reasons for mounting
optimism.                                     Third, the market is pleased with                                                       As a result, and despite the prospect
                                              the outcome of the U.S. presidential                                                    of a mini-economic swoon in the very
First, the economic recovery so far has       election – a new political configuration                                                near term, our refinements to the
repeatedly exceeded expectations,             that will last for several years. Our own                                               2021 outlook have almost uniformly
suggesting that economies could               analysis concurs that the outcome is                                                    been upgrades rather than downward
continue to outpace the normal                likely economically positive.                                                           revisions, and we are now modestly
recovery experience.                                                                                                                  above the consensus regarding the
                                              Fourth, it is heartening that long-                                                     coming year. In turn, our tactical asset
Second, vaccine-development efforts           suffering European nations are starting                                                 allocation remains tilted toward risk
are beginning to yield big results, with      to emerge from their especially severe                                                  assets like equities.
high efficacy rates that point to the         second wave, demonstrating that it
genuine possibility of herd immunity          is possible to tame the virus even in                                                   We are not alone in expressing rising
being achieved in developed nations.          adverse winter conditions.                                                              optimism, as a U.S. measure of news
                                                                                                                                      sentiment has been rising steadily

                                                                                                                      THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 13
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

since the summer – healing continues
from the initial trauma of the pandemic                             Exhibit 3: Real-time sentiment has increased substantially
(Exhibit 3).
                                                                        0.4
Virus in context                                                        0.3

                                           Daily News Sentiment Index
This has been a pandemic without                                        0.2

modern precedent. One has to go                                          0.1
                                                                                                                                                                                -0.039
                                                                        0.0
back to the 1918 flu pandemic to find
                                                                        -0.1
another virus that affected the world
                                                                        -0.2
so quickly and profoundly. While there                                  -0.3
have certainly been pandemics since,                                    -0.4
their means of transmission were                                        -0.5
either quite different (as with AIDS) or                                -0.6
                                                                          Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20
the scale of the pandemics themselves
                                                                          Note: As of 11/29/2020. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Macrobond, RBC GAM
was radically smaller (as with SARS).

In fact, it is not unreasonable to
                                                                   Exhibit 4: Impact of COVID-19 on a population-adjusted basis
go one step further and argue that
this pandemic lacks any precedent,
period. Although the 1918 flu was                                         45
                                           COVID-19 cases per thousand

deadlier than COVID-19, the bulk of                                       40
                                                                           35
the developed world’s population was
                                                                          30
not obliged to shelter at home for an
                                                     people

                                                                           25
extended period, and there was much                                       20
less economic damage. As such, we                                          15
have been operating without anything                                       10
resembling a guidebook for COVID-19.                                           5
                                                                               0
The intensity of the COVID-19
experience has varied substantially
by country (Exhibit 4). Adjusted for                                                Note: As of 12/2/2020. Source: ECDC, Macrobond, RBC GAM

population, the U.S. has had the
most intense encounter with the
                                                                    Exhibit 5: Five key economic questions
virus, with Brazil and a handful of
European countries faring almost as
badly. Conversely, Germany has done
pretty well, as has Canada. A handful
                                                                          Level of GDP
                                                                                                                                                                       5   When GDP
                                                                                                                                                                           returns to prior

                                                                                                                                                    4
                                                                                                                                                        When GDP           trajectory?
                                                                                                                                                        returns to
of superstar countries have been                                                                                                                        prior level?
                                                                                                                                                                           We predict
                                                                                                                                                                           2023.
relatively untouched, including Japan,                                                                                                                  We predict

Australia, New Zealand and China.          1                 Depth
                                                             of trough?
                                                             10%-25
                                                                                                                                                        end 2022.

Recovery story so far
                                                             decline.
                                                                                                                         3   Initial bounce?
                                                                                                                             Half of economic
                                                                                                                             decline was
Five key factors collectively                                                                                                recovered by
                                                                                                                             late June.
characterize the economic contours
of the pandemic (Exhibit 5). Of these,                                                        2   Duration of trough?
                                                                                                  Barely over
                                                                                                  a month.
three have already been resolved.
                                           Source: RBC GAM

14 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

First, economies initially shrank by
                                                           Exhibit 6: Traditional economic data confirms that significant U.S.
between 10% and 25% during the                             recovery has already taken place
worst of the spring economic collapse,
with the U.S. losing 15% and Canada                                                                                   Now 7.7% above
                                                                                10        Still 5.6% below             pre-crisis level          Still 14.9% below pre-        Still 5.6% below
shedding 18%. While the magnitude

                                            % change vs. pre-crisis level
                                                                                          pre-crisis level                                              crisis level           pre-crisis level
of the initial economic collapse                                                 0

was unprecedented, it was actually                                          -10
                                                   (Feb 2020)
smaller than initially feared. After                                        -20
                                                                                          64.7% of loss           145.2% of loss                                                66.2% of loss
all, given that the great majority of                                       -30            recovered                recovered                                                    recovered

the developed world’s workers were                                          -40
suddenly no longer going to work, it                                        -50
was easy to imagine that the economic                                       -60                                                                      72.5% of loss
                                                                                                                                                      recovered
decline might be more like 50%.                                                           Employment                   Retail sales               Food services &         Industrial production
                                                                                                                                                  drinking places
                                                                                     Trough (Apr 2020)       Latest
Second, the duration of this trough was                                          Note: As of Oct 2020. Trough since Feb 2020. Source: Macrobond, RBC GAM

actually quite short, lasting little more
than a month. Economies were growing
again by late April.                                      Exhibit 7: Chinese economy recovering rapidly

Third, the initial rebound proved quite
                                                                            8
enthusiastic, with half of the initial
                                                                            6
                                            Real GDP growth (YoY %

economic decline recovered within just
                                                                            4
two months – by the end of June. We
                                                                            2
estimate that around two-thirds of the
                                                   change)

original economic decline has since                                         0

been undone, albeit with considerable                                 -2

variation by sector (Exhibit 6).                                     -4
                                                                     -6
Thus, despite considerable economic
                                                                      -8
damage, we have actually been                                                   Mar-16      Sep-16     Mar-17    Sep-17        Mar-18        Sep-18      Mar-19      Sep-19     Mar-20     Sep-20
pleasantly surprised by the economic                                            Note: As of Q3 2020. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Macrobond, RBC GAM

impact and recovery so far. There are
no guarantees that this happy trend
                                                          Exhibit 8: Still considerable room for catch-up growth in coming
persists, but it seems reasonably likely,
                                                          years
as demonstrated by bellwether China’s
nearly complete revival (Exhibit 7) and                                         8
the historic gains in financial markets.                                        6

There is certainly space for above-                                             4
                                            (% of potential GDP)

                                                                                2
                                              U.S. output gap

potential growth over the coming years
                                                                                0
given the size of the output gap that
                                                                                -2
remains (Exhibit 8).
                                                                                -4

The fourth factor relates to when                                               -6
                                                                                -8
economies will reclaim their pre-
                                                                            -10
pandemic economic peak. Our thinking
                                                                            -12
has become incrementally more                                                 1960                 1970           1980                    1990             2000               2010              2020
optimistic on this front, motivated                                              Note: As of Q3 2020. Shaded area represents recession. Source: CBO, Macrobond, RBC GAM

                                                                                                                       THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 15
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

significantly by the promising vaccine
developments discussed later. We                                          Exhibit 9: France has now passed the peak of the second COVID wave
now believe the U.S. and Canadian
economies will achieve this goal by                                       60                                                                                                   1200

                                            Daily new cases (thousands)
the final quarter of 2021, with Europe,
                                                                          50                                                                                                   1000
Japan and the U.K. trailing in 2022. This

                                                                                                                                                                                      Daily deaths
nevertheless means that the rate of                                       40                                                                                                   800

recovery is slowing considerably from                                     30                                                                                                   600
the heady early months. The low-
                                                                          20                                                                                                   400
hanging fruit has long been plucked
                                                                          10                                                                                                   200
in terms of reopening sectors that are
not particularly vulnerable to virus                              0                                                                                                           0
                                                                2020-02-27      2020-04-22     2020-06-16      2020-08-10                          2020-10-04         2020-11-28
transmission.                                                            Daily new cases (LHS)      Daily deaths (RHS)
                                                                               Note: As of 12/2/2020. 7-day moving average of daily new cases and new deaths. Source: CDC, Macrobond,
Fifth, we continue to anticipate that                                          RBC GAM

the full return to economic normality
will occur sometime in 2023. Whether        number of new infections, but this is                                                 again. Sectors deemed to be a high
this is “slow” or “fast” is entirely a      probably a relic of insufficient testing                                              risk such as indoor restaurants, bars
matter of perspective. It is undeniably     during the first wave. Of greater                                                     and gyms have been limited in the
slow in the sense that the pandemic         relevance, the rate of fatalities has                                                 services they offer, or even shuttered.
shock is set to last approximately four     been lower in the second wave. But                                                    Non-economic social activity has
years, with some lingering side-effects     the latest outbreak is far from trivial,                                              been similarly curtailed, though this is
persisting even longer. However, by         particularly for countries in which the                                               harder for governments to control and
the standards of past major economic        wave has not yet crested.                                                             may represent a large fraction of the
shocks, this is fairly fast. It took                                                                                              spread.
                                            What allowed the virus to reassert
13 years for the U.S. economy to fully
                                            itself this fall? It has been a                                                       In turn, we can see that countries that
normalize after the Great Depression
                                            combination of incrementally more                                                     have implemented the most aggressive
(and this was with a substantial boost
                                            feeble government control efforts                                                     new restrictions are succeeding in
from World War II), and around nine
                                            as economies were reopened                                                            taming their second waves. France
years for the economic slack from the
                                            (and recently reversed), declining                                                    had the most challenging second
2008-2009 financial crisis to be fully
                                            compliance with social-distancing                                                     wave in Europe, and has now cut its
absorbed.
                                            rules as people grow weary of their                                                   daily infection rate by a factor of five
                                            altered lives, the dynamics of colder                                                 (Exhibit 9). Other European countries
Second wave complications
                                            and drier weather, the restart of                                                     are also beginning to improve.
Providing a striking parallel to the
                                            physical schooling and perhaps even
1918 Flu, COVID-19 infections have                                                                                                The U.S., already in its third viral wave
                                            the many highly social events that are
been arriving in waves. Much of the                                                                                               after a second bout last summer, has
                                            occurring this fall, including Halloween,
world now finds itself suffering a                                                                                                yet to make a concerted push to limit
                                            Thanksgiving and the U.S. election -
second wave of infections after having                                                                                            the spread of the virus. As a result, the
                                            with Christmas looming.
tamed the spring surge and enjoyed a                                                                                              U.S. daily infection numbers continue
relatively peaceful summer.                 Fortunately, after considerable delay,                                                to deteriorate quite badly (Exhibit 10).
                                            governments have awakened to the
The latest wave appears to be more                                                                                                Canada lands somewhere between
                                            second-wave threat and proceeded
intense than the first in terms of the                                                                                            Europe and the U.S., with substantial
                                            to tighten social-distancing rules

16 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

new efforts to limit the spread of the
virus, but implemented later and less                               Exhibit 10: U.S. still in the heat of the third COVID wave
aggressively than in Europe.
                                                                        250                                                                                                          3.0

                                          Daily new cases (thousands)
Second wave economic

                                                                                                                                                                                           Daily deaths (thousands)
                                                                        200                                                                                                          2.5
damage
                                                                                                                                                                                     2.0
Policymakers are attempting a delicate                                  150
balancing act between keeping people                                                                                                                                                 1.5
healthy, minimizing damage to the                                       100
                                                                                                                                                                                     1.0
economy and limiting the disruption
                                                                         50                                                                                                          0.5
to personal lives. Each COVID-19 wave
brings with it significant economic and                                   0                                                                                                       0.0
social costs as governments respond                                     2020-03-10          2020-05-01           2020-06-22        2020-08-13         2020-10-04          2020-11-25
                                                                               Daily new cases (LHS)             Daily deaths (RHS)
by imposing new social-distancing
                                                                   Note: As of 12/8/2020. 7-day moving average of daily new cases and new deaths. Source: CDC, Macrobond, RBC GAM
rules. These have disproportionately
limited service-sector activity, with
tourism, entertainment, restaurants,                                    Exhibit 11: Real-time mobility declining again
bars, gyms and small retailers
particularly affected.
                                                                         1

The impact of the latest restrictions                                   0
                                           Lockdown severity

can be seen in our real-time mobility                                   -1
index, which combines Google Mobility                                   -2
data with Oxford University lockdown-                                   -3
stringency data, revealing a newly
                                                                        -4
declining trend (Exhibit 11).
                                                                        -5
The U.S. second wave that occurred                                  -6
                                                                   2-15-2020         3-26-2020        5-5-2020     6-14-2020  7-24-2020   9-2-2020   10-12-2020 11-21-2020
during the summer merely slowed the
                                                                                   Canada           Italy         South Korea       Sweden        U.K.       U.S.
country’s economic recovery. Such                                            Note: Based on latest data available as of 11/27/2020. Deviation from baseline, normalised to U.S.and
                                                                             smoothed with a 7-day moving average. Source: Google, University of Oxford, Macrobond, RBC GAM
a benign economic outcome is less
realistic this time, regardless of the
country, given the greater intensity of
                                                                        Exhibit 12: Global manufacturing still points to growth
the outbreak, fewer fiscal tailwinds
and less natural buoyancy now that
                                                                         57
economies have already reclaimed so                                      55     Expansion
much lost ground.                                                        53
                                           Manufacturing PMI

                                                                         51
                                                                         49
Economic damage is starting to
                                                                         47
become visible in leading indicators                                     45
such as national-level purchasing                                        43
                                                                         41     Contraction
manager indexes for the Eurozone                                         39
and U.K., but not yet at the global                                      37
level (Exhibit 12). In comparison to                                     35
                                                                           2012      2013     2014                2015      2016     2017           2018     2019     2020
developed-world countries, we do                                                J.P.Morgan Global PMI                 Developed markets PMI            Emerging markets PMI
not expect the same scale of new                                              Note: As of Nov 2020. PMI refers to Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing sector, a measure for
                                                                              economic activity. Source: Haver Analytics, RBC GAM

                                                                                                                  THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 17
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

restrictions or economic damage
                                                                   Exhibit 13: Hours worked by hourly workers in the U.S. have been
across most emerging-market nations,
                                                                   falling lately
which are not presently recording as
many new infections.                                                    10
                                                                              0

                                              Change from median (%)
There is some tentative evidence that                                                                                                                               Slight downward
                                                                       -10                                                                                                trend
the U.S. is now starting to experience
                                                                       -20
a pinch of economic damage itself,
                                                                       -30
even as it avoids widespread new                                                                                                                              Temporary drop
                                                                       -40                                                                                        due to
restrictions. A real-time measure                                                                                                                              Thanksgiving
of time worked by American hourly                                      -50

workers was edging slightly lower even                                 -60
before the Thanksgiving holiday sent                                    -70
                                                                       2020-03-07                  2020-05-09             2020-07-11            2020-09-12              2020-11-14
it artificially plunging (Exhibit 13). U.S.                                       Note: As of 12/5/2020. Impact compares hours worked in a day vs. median for the same day of the week in
jobless claims are no longer improving                                            January, 2020. 7-day moving average used. Source: Homebase, RBC GAM

as reliably as earlier in the recovery.
Our proprietary real-time economic
activity indicator for the U.S. also                               Exhibit 14: U.S. economic activity has shifted to low gear
argues that the economy is growing
less enthusiastically than before                                                 10
                                               U.S. Economic Activity Index

(Exhibit 14).                                                                     5
                                                                                  0
                                                      (YoY % change)

                                                                                                                                                             ... Recovery lost steam
Why is the U.S. economy affected                                                  -5                                                                           during second wave
by the latest virus wave when the                                             -10
                                                                                                                Economic activities
country’s policymakers have only                                              -15                               have recovered
                                                                                                                over 50% of
                                                                              -20                               decline...
minimally tightened social-distancing
                                                                              -25
rules? IMF research found that a large
                                                                              -30
fraction of the economic damage
                                                                              -35
from the first wave came from people                                          Jan-2020             Mar-2020          May-2020            Jul-2020          Sep-2020            Nov-2020
voluntarily limiting their mobility                                           Note: As of 11/28/2020. Economic Activity Index is the average of ten high-frequency economic data series
                                                                              measuring the year-over-year percentage change. Source: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, OpenTable,
when they perceived the risk to be                                            Macrobond, RBC GAM

significant, not merely because their
government told them to. As such, it          U.S. and Canada may experience less                                                      • The new rules are not as strict as the
could be that more Americans than is          of a hit. We don’t expect an outright                                                      ones in the spring.
generally perceived are engaging in           negative print from quarterly GDP for
                                                                                                                                       This last point merits some
voluntary social distancing.                  either of the latter countries.
                                                                                                                                       elaboration. The sectors that are
                                              Why is the damage set to be so                                                           targeted by the latest lockdown
Fortunately, the economic damage
                                              comparatively limited in this wave?                                                      represent only a few percentage
from the latest virus wave is set to be
                                                                                                                                       points of GDP. While these restrictions
far less damaging than the first wave
                                              • Businesses and people are                                                              are extraordinarily difficult for the
was last spring. Whereas economic
                                                                now better at operating under                                          proprietors, employees and customers
output declined by between 10% and
                                                                government restrictions;                                               of affected establishments, the
25% last spring, the drop should be an
                                              • There is less fear and paralysis                                                       move has only a limited effect on the
order of magnitude smaller this time.
                                                                associated with the second wave                                        economy-wide level of output.
The European economy will probably
suffer slightly more due to especially                          given that people now understand
                                                                                                                                       In distinct contrast to the first wave,
aggressive new restrictions, while the                          the contours of the virus;
                                                                                                                                       such sectors as manufacturing,

18 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

construction, real estate, mining and
education are now able to continue                       Exhibit 15: U.S. private investment rebounded from trough
operating at near-normal levels.
These are collectively well over 10                                       19

times larger than the sectors that                                        18

                                            investment (% of real GDP)
                                             U.S. real private domestic
have been shuttered. Furthermore,                                         17
any number of other sectors that were                                     16
never formally restricted in the spring                                   15
nevertheless suffered temporarily                                         14
declines in activity as the businesses                                    13
learned to adapt to a virtual working                                     12
environment. That same process of                                         11
adjustment is unnecessary today.                                          10
                                                                            1970                1980               1990              2000                2010                 2020
All of this is to say that some economic                                       Note: As of Q3 2020. Shaded area represents recession. Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM

damage is probable over the next
few months. However, we do not              Timing: Emergency usage is now                                                   Take-up: Only time will tell exactly
seriously doubt that the broader            beginning at the very end of 2020, with                                          what fraction of the population will be
recovery remains intact. Our business-      standard availability as of early 2021 in                                        willing to be inoculated, but surveys
cycle analysis points toward an             major developed nations.                                                         suggest around 75% is a reasonable
economy that has progressed from a                                                                                           guess. While some countries report
                                            Efficacy: In trials, the top two vaccine                                         less enthusiasm, this may yet be
recessionary footing to an “early cycle”
                                            candidates appear to reduce the                                                  boosted via government payments and
positioning, as evidenced by reviving
                                            likelihood of contracting COVID-19 by a                                          companies requiring their employees
private investment (Exhibit 15).
                                            remarkable 95%. Another reports 70%                                              to be inoculated.
                                            efficacy. While detailed information
Vaccine optimism
                                            is still limited and some aspects of                                             Production: Producing a sufficient
The development of an effective
                                            the scientific methodology have been                                             number of shots to inoculate the
vaccine has long been viewed as the
                                            questioned, the prospective vaccines                                             world is far from straightforward
key to eradicating the virus, or at least
                                            appear to be genuinely exceeding                                                 given a global population of nearly 8
to downgrading it from pandemic curse
                                            expectations.                                                                    billion and the expectation that each
to pest. Achieving this was initially
                                                                                                                             person will require two doses. While
thought to be something of a long shot,     Duration: The duration of the                                                    manufacturers insist they can produce
as vaccines historically required many      protection offered by the vaccines                                               billions of doses in 2021, we suspect
years to be developed, and efforts          is not yet clear. Some research                                                  a fair portion of the emerging world
to find vaccines for many viruses –         suggests that those who obtained their                                           will not be inoculated until 2022 or
including all previous coronaviruses –      immunity via infection could already                                             later. The majority of people in the
had failed.                                 start to lose that protection within                                             developed world should be inoculated
                                            a matter of months. This presents a                                              in the second and third quarter of 2021.
Fortunately, the vaccine prospects now
                                            distinct risk. However, at least one
look quite promising, on seven counts:
                                            virus manufacturer has indicated it                                              Distribution: Getting the vaccine
Likelihood: Despite initial doubts,         expects vaccine-induced immunity to                                              to every corner of a country – let
it is now virtually certain that            last at least a year. This should suffice                                        alone the world – is set to be quite
COVID-19 vaccines will be approved          in terms of making vaccines a viable                                             challenging, but not impossible.
given the early success of several          means of protection.                                                             Most people in the developed world
candidates and limited emergency-use                                                                                         already get a flu shot each year, so
authorizations.                                                                                                              the distribution protocols already

                                                                                                             THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021 I 19
Economic Outlook | Eric Lascelles

exist. Some COVID-19 vaccines must
be kept in cold temperatures, but the                                    Exhibit 16: U.S. to record biggest budget deficit since WWII
requirements are proving less extreme
than initially anticipated.                                                   0

                                            U.S. budget balance (% of GDP)
In short, it appears that vaccines will
                                                                              -5
arrive shortly and should be quite                                                                                                        -4.6

effective. In turn, they should have
                                                                             -10                                                                  -8.6
a significant effect on the trajectory                                                            -9.8

of the pandemic. Herd immunity is
                                                                             -15
now reasonably likely based on the
                                                                                                                                              -16.0
favourable efficacy rates reported by
                                                                             -20
several manufacturers, paired with                                                 2005 2007 2009 2011      2013 2015 2017                2019 2021      2023    2025    2027       2029
our expectation that most people will                                                Actual  CBO projections:    Post-crisis              Pre-crisis
                                                                                   Note: CBO pre-crisis projections made in March 2020, post-crisis projections made in September
opt to get the vaccine. If 60% to 70%                                              2020. Source: CBO, Haver Analytics, RBC GAM

of a country’s population can become
immune to COVID-19, the virus would         Until recently, the U.S. economy looked                                                 This is a prominent reason why the
then struggle to continue circulating.      minimally worse for the wear despite                                                    economic recovery should proceed
Even if herd immunity proves elusive,       the loss of fiscal support. The secret                                                  more slowly from here.
the virus will still find conditions        was that the prior fiscal stimulus was
                                            so enormous that much of the money                                                      Monetary stimulus has been
considerably less fertile for rapid
                                            was initially saved. This nest egg                                                      extraordinarily supportive, allowing
spread.
                                            then kept spending going even as the                                                    companies to roll over their debt,
These vaccine developments have             stimulus faded. However, particularly                                                   keeping the rising quantity of public
been key contributors to the recent         for low-income Americans, these                                                         debt manageable and bolstering
enthusiasm of financial markets, and        accumulated savings have now largely                                                    housing markets. Although some
also to our own above-consensus             been eaten through. In response to                                                      quantitative-easing programs are
growth forecasts for 2021.                  this, it is likely that some additional                                                 being scaled back, this is primarily
                                            U.S. fiscal support will be delivered                                                   because the need for such support
Policy support                              once the new U.S. administration is                                                     has fallen or because central banks
Policymakers have played an                 installed next month.                                                                   have found a better way to provide
unprecedented role in supporting                                                                                                    that support, such as by extending
economies and financial markets             The orientation of fiscal stimulus                                                      the duration of bond purchases. With
throughout the pandemic.                    may also shift somewhat over time,                                                      central-bank support expected to
                                            paring the sometimes excessive                                                          persist for several more years, interest
The extraordinary fiscal support is         support provided to some groups                                                         rates should remain accordingly low.
now starting to fade, partially because     and filling previously overlooked
unemployment has declined, resulting        gaps, particularly for the proprietors                                                  U.S. election aftermath
in fewer unemployment cheques. But it       of businesses that were forced by                                                       The U.S. election proved a more closely
is also because some pandemic-relief        government restrictions to close.                                                       contested affair than anticipated by
programs have been allowed to expire.                                                                                               pollsters (Exhibit 17). After a whiplash-
This decline has been particularly          Still, large-scale fiscal support cannot
                                                                                                                                    inducing election night in which the
abrupt in the U.S., where partisan          last forever, as it is adding profoundly
                                                                                                                                    favoured Democratic Party candidate,
battles resulted in the loss of a handful   to the public debt. As such, the amount
                                                                                                                                    Joe Biden, temporarily appeared to be
of programs over the past several           of stimulus is forecast by the IMF to
                                                                                                                                    losing to the Republican incumbent,
months.                                     decline notably over the coming year
                                                                                                                                    Donald Trump, Biden managed to hang
                                            in nearly every country (Exhibit 16).
                                                                                                                                    on for the win.

20 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK New Year 2021
You can also read