THE GLOBAL The Evolving Workplace
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TH E GLOBAL The Evolving Workplace: M E G AT R E N D S GLOBAL TRANSFORMING TRENDS HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Sustainability and the fourth industrial revolution
CO N T E N T S
4 U R B A N I Z AT I O N A N D
SM A R T O PP O R T U N I T I E S
MEGACITIES AND URBAN CONSUMPTION
6 C H A N G I N G D E M OG R A PH I C S
G E N Z A N D T H E ‘ S I LV E R W O R K F O R C E ’
8 H Y PE R G LO B A L I Z AT I O N
POWERING A CONNEC TED GLOBAL MARKET
10 ACC E L E R AT E D I N N OVAT I O N
THE BUILDING BLOCKS TO TOMORROW
PA G E 2
THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Global
megatrends
The forces transforming
how we live and work
From the rapid growth of urbanization and the emergence of Gen Z, through to
advances in artificial intelligence and robotics, a series of Megatrends are fueling
rapid global change for employers and employees.
N
ot only are we living through a period of unprecedented always-connected, on-demand economy. Their success signals the
change, but the rate of change is accelerating. We now have beginning of the social and consumer phase of digitalization. As
more computing power in our pocket than all of NASA had in more businesses emerge to serve customers through digital
19691 when it put the first man on the moon. India sent a spacecraft offerings, new technologies will rapidly transfer from the enterprise
to Mars for less money than it took Hollywood to make the movie to the individual. This will have a huge impact on the way people
Gravity.2 And artificial Intelligence (AI) took just 42 hours to solve the everywhere live and work – and therefore major implications for
100-year-old mystery of how flatworms regenerate body parts.4 business leaders.
Fueled by faster technology advancements, our rapidly evolving
world finds us more connected and reliant on digital technologies,
altering how we live, work and socialize with one another. Uber and
Airbnb are clear examples of new business models enabled by the
PA G E 3
THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
So how do companies stay ahead of all this change, to innovate,
adapt, reinvent and engineer experiences for a future that promises
to look very different from today?
While we can’t know what the future will hold, we can look to the
major socio-economic, demographic and technological trends
occurring across the globe to help guide us: Megatrends that we
believe will have a sustained, transformative impact on the world in
the years ahead—on businesses, societies, economies, cultures and
our personal lives.
At HP, we’ve identified four major megatrends: Rapid
Urbanization, Changing Demographics, Hyper Globalization,
and Accelerated Innovation.
While Megatrends won’t give us all the answers, they can be a
beacon for where the world is headed, giving us the opportunity to
adapt, chart and reinvent our own future.
Urbanization and smart opportunities
The global population is set to swell by 2 billion over the next 30
years, meaning that by 2050 there will be 9.7 billion people5 walking
the earth. Two thirds of us will choose to call cities home, compared
to just 55% today, and the vast majority of this urban growth – 90%
– will take place in Asia and Africa.6
As people move to cities, they’ll grow in size, and we’ll have more of
them, including megacities in places many of us have never heard of
today. In 1990, there were only 10 cities with more than 10 million
people7– by 2030 we will have 43 such megacities.8 Meanwhile, it’s
been predicted that the area of urbanized land could triple globally
from 2000 to 2030.9 This is equivalent to adding an area bigger than
Manhattan every single day.
With bigger cities comes major economic growth. By 2025,
urbanization will welcome an additional 1.8 billion consumers to the
world economy, a billion of these new consumers will work and live
in large cities across the emerging world.10 And consumers in these
markets are forecast to spend $30 trillion in 2025, up from $12
trillion in 2010.11
“In 1990, there were only 10
cities with more than 10 million
people7 – by 2030 we will have
43 such megacities.8”
PA G E 4THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
As economic conditions improve and social attitudes change, more If the 20th-century economy can be defined by the burgeoning
women will have a major impact on the world economy. From middle class in the industrialized economies of the US and Europe,
growing participation in the global labour force, to economic wealth then the 21st-century economy will be defined by the expanding
and spending drivers. Women will soon control an estimated $72 middle class in developing and emerging countries especially in Asia
trillion of global wealth, 32% of the total,12 and women currently and specifically driven by India and China. These two middle classes
drive 70-80% of all consumer purchasing.13 will represent two very different consumer groups; one saddled with
debt and declining income driven to buy value purchases, and the
In the next decade, it has been estimated that close to 1 billion other an affluent buyer looking for luxury and high-end products.
women,14 mostly in the developing world, are going to enter the
formal economy and become new economic contributors, as An influx of urban consumers will drive new business models,
full-time workers and micro-entrepreneurs. changing the way we buy and consume products, and increasing
the need for more personalized and localized services. 3D printing
The growing pace of urban migration, access to education, better capabilities, like the ones HP is spearheading, will enable cities to
health, mobile technologies and micro credit will continue to fuel respond to the growing and changing needs of their residents by
this phenomenon. printing on demand whatever is needed— for construction,
entertainment, shopping, education, even new types of food
But while emerging economies experience a growing middle class, a items—rather than relying on a physical supply chain. Using 3D
rift is expanding between haves and have-nots in developed nations, printing, complex assemblies can be redesigned into a single part
with many consumers driven more by value than quality. to simplify production.
PA G E 5THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
As millions of people move to cities every week, they will also place
a huge strain on space, city resources, energy requirements and
infrastructure costs, forcing homes, offices and cities to become
smarter and more efficient. To address this, we are seeing a surge in
the number of smart city and micro-living initiatives. $81 billion was
spent globally on smart city initiatives in 2018, and this is set to soar
to $189.5 billion in 2023.15 As more people move to cities, demand
for housing and co-working spaces is also on the rise with micro-
housing and co-working spaces becoming growing trends across
the globe.
Large corporations, like HP, along with governments and city officials
need to address the opportunities and challenges posed by this rapid
urbanization. Looking for ways to enable cities, homes and offices to
be more sustainable and efficient. Creating new services customized
to urban users in cities all over the world. Developing products and
services with new classes of consumers in mind.
Rapid urbanization presents an amazing opportunity to think
smarter about products, services and our surroundings.
Changing Demographics: Gen Z and the ‘silver’ workforce
Shifting demographics are fundamentally changing the socio-
economic landscape. On the one hand, we have a new generation
that is beginning to enter the workforce, known as Generation Z
(Gen Z). This is the generation born between 1995 and 2010, and
numbers 2.6 billion globally.16 Gen Z comprises about 30% of the
global population17 and will account for 40% of all consumers by
2020.18 They are also entering the workforce at speed – with
forecasts suggesting they’ll make up 36% of the global workforce
by 2020.19
This is the first generation that has never known a world without the
internet and who were practically born with a smart phone in their
hands. Having never spent a day of their lives offline, they are acutely
aware of the issues and global challenges happening in the world
around them. It should come as no surprise that 60% want their jobs
to make an impact on the world.20
Gen Z’s attitudes toward work and employers are very different to
previous generations, as almost half of them consider working for a
company that helps make the world a better place as important a
consideration as salary. Their nomadic lifestyles have them craving
more flexibility in where, how and when they work. As active
participants in the “Gig Economy”—an environment where short-
term, freelance positions are preferred over full-time jobs—Gen Z is
a driving force behind new collaborative learning, technology and
workforce trends.
Global spending $81 billion
on smart city in 2018 to
initiatives will $189.5 billion
soar from in 2023.
PA G E 6THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Yet at the same time, more countries are becoming super-
aged, which means more than 20 percent of their population
is over the age of 65. In fact, thanks to people living longer
and having few babies, there are now more people over 65
than under 5 for the first time in history.21
China is a perfect example of this phenomenon.
By 2050, 1 in four Chinese people will be older
than 65.22 To deal with this shift, China rescinded
their one child policy in 2015 after 35 years. 60% of Gen Z
want their jobs to
An older population leads to a shrinking and aging make an impact
workforce, putting increased pressure on
the world.
healthcare and retirement. The aging workforce
will also put a strain on economies and
government spending, simply because as the
world ages, there will be fewer people working to
support the number of people retiring.
On the bright side, an aging working population also means a
significant market opportunity. Often referred to as the “silver
generation”, this population has greater purchasing power
than their younger counterparts and represents a significant
untapped opportunity for companies in the future. Worldwide
spending among older consumers could soon reach $15
trillion a year.23
This will create a significant shift for brands who
today devote most of their marketing spends to
people under the age of 30, even though in places
like North America, over-50s are the most Worldwide
affluent of any age segment, owning more than spending among
three fourths of the country’s financial wealth and older consumers
spending more than $1 trillion on goods and could reach $15
services a year.24 trillion by 2020
Along with aging comes the possibility of chronic
diseases such as diabetes, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease and Alzheimer’s all of which are on the
rise. These long-term degenerative diseases place a high-cost
burden on our healthcare systems. The sooner doctors can
detect, treat and/or prevent these conditions in patients, the
more they can reduce this burden.
Unfortunately, at the same time, we’ll see a shortage of up to
nearly 122,000 physicians by 2032 in the U.S. as demand for
physicians continues to grow faster than supply. We will need
to harness the exponential technology growth of faster
computing, artificial intelligence, big data, mobility,
microfluidics and the Internet of Things (IoT) to help us meet
these growing health challenges in spite of this shortage.
Today’s new and evolving platforms comprise well-defined
architecture, governance and services, and are underpinned
by the latest digital tools. In healthcare, platforms for care
delivery will evolve, improving the ability to provide relevant
information, access and control to consumers and caregivers.
Care will be ubiquitous, drug development times will be
reduced and new treatments will arise. With increased
technological power, the next wave of digital health solutions
could move us from prevention to elimination.
PA G E 7THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Amplifying this globalization is the internet, which has enabled the
“In healthcare, platforms for care growth of a vast digital marketplace from companies we’ve never
delivery will evolve, improving heard of, from cities we’ve never been to and working on digital
platforms that are changing the competitive landscape. Anyone with
the ability to provide relevant an idea can become a global business overnight.
information, access and control” It’s easier now than ever before for start-ups to scale globally and
for emerging market companies to challenge established
multinationals. According to research by McKinsey Global Institute, by
HP is working on advancements in microfluidics, IoT and 2025, nearly half of Fortune 500 companies will be headquartered in
hypermobility to move from a world where systems are today’s emerging markets.25
centralized—where testing is very expensive and slow—into a world
of global diagnostics, where things happen very cheaply and the Market disruption has become the new norm. Gone are the days
power is put into the hands of the individual. when 75-year-old companies were commonplace. The average
tenure of companies on the S&P 500 dropped from 33 years in 1964
Catering to this diverse customer base that spans generations will to 24 years in 2016 and is forecast to shrink to just 12 by 2027. In
require companies to rethink how they design products, structure fact at the current rate, half of S&P 500 companies will be replaced
their global labor force and what benefits and services they provide. over the next eight years.26
We’re not yet sure what that will look like. Is it commercial Disruption is now happening everywhere to everyone, even to those
wearables for increased productivity at work? New collaboration companies who were themselves doing the disrupting just a few
tools for nomadic workers? Disruptive healthcare solutions? short years ago. Companies around the globe must constantly
Personal robotic solutions to augment our lives and automate tasks? reinvent themselves to stay competitive.
Or all of the above?
Those companies that succeed will also have to be ready to handle
Hyperglobalization: powering a connected global marketplace new forms of payment, as the way consumers buy and pay for
Globalization arguably began 2,000 years ago with the 4,350 mile products and services continues to be digitized to become
Silk Road that connected Eurasia. However, no one can argue that increasingly seamless. Gradually money has gone through a digital
a truly dramatic ‘flattening’ of the world happened when the transformation with credit cards and debit cards being the physical
internet was created. And today it’s not just data that’s freely manifestation of the transition. Recently a new transition is taking
flowing between countries—it’s capital, products, services and place; to eliminate the analogue aspect of a card and completely
people. For example, how and where we design, sell and digitize the entire card system. Bank of America is introducing a
manufacture products will become both hyper-global and hyper- digital debit card feature in its mobile banking app that can be used
local thanks to us now living in a globally connected world with a for in-store, in-app and online payments. It can also be used to make
diverse set of local requirements. deposits and withdrawals at cardless ATMs.27
PA G E 8THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Enabling this transition will not be an easy task, considering that
even today, 83% of global transactions are done in cash – especially
in developing countries. This is a drop of only 2%, from 85% in
2007.28 But changes are already underway making it easier for
people across the globe to transfer data instead of cash. That agent
“Mobile payments will of this change—is the smartphone.
become the 2nd most Online and mobile payments will lead to mostly cashless societies in
Norway, Denmark and Sweden within 5 years. Sweden is expected to
common payment method become the first cashless society by March 2023.29 A trend that is
supported by Millennials, 70% of whom use their mobiles to pay
after cash by 2025.” for goods and services.30 According to Worldpay’s 2018 Global
Payment Report, global use of mobile payments will rise to 28% by
2022,31 becoming the second most common payment method after
debit cards.
The emergence of new technologies such as digital wallets,
near-field communications (NFC), crypto-currencies—including
Bitcoin—mobile peer-to-peer payments and the use of biometrics
for authentication are tipping the balance further and further in favor
of digital currency.
However, with the speed of global technology adoption also comes
an increase in the supply and demand for cyber-attacks. Information
is power and cyber-attacks are hard to attribute. Take the Capital
One data breach in 2019, where an unknown hacker managed to
access data on 106 million of the bank’s customers and applicants.32
Going forward there will be an increased emphasis on technology
companies to innovate and achieve much higher degrees of trust
and resilience. HP’s Security Lab has several initiatives underway to
tackle the growing landscape of cybersecurity threats and how HP is
designing for cyber-resilience in a Blended Reality future.
Businesses will need to help customers navigate constant disruption,
smartly and securely in an increasingly globalized world. While at the
same time, embarking on supplier and government partnerships
that enable them to move manufacturing closer to their customers.
Enabling them to provide on-demand products customized based
on geography and personal preference.
A widely-connected world will reward companies willing to embrace
change and disruption. The possibilities are endless.
PA G E 9THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Accelerated Innovation: the building blocks to tomorrow Smart machines will lead to the dawn of a new age, where objects
Even though we are being constantly bombarded with faster, and devices become infused with machine learning and artificial
cheaper and more powerful technology, it’s easy to forget that the intelligence (AI), allowing them to not only assist us, but even
pace of technological change is constantly accelerating because anticipate our needs.
digital technologies generally follow an exponential trajectory versus
a linear one. That’s why in 30 years time, our phones won’t just be We will see a shift from power to intelligence-enhancing
30 times more powerful than they are today – they’ll be a billion capabilities offering virtually limitless opportunities for expansion.
times more powerful. Increasingly, material science, machine interfaces, analytics,
immersive computing, efficiency and accessibility, rather than just
As technology components mature and become commoditized, they the cost or power of components, will define the innovative products
become the building blocks for new breakthroughs. Emerging of tomorrow.
technology trends like Hypermobility, 3D Transformation, Internet of
ALL Things, and Smart Machines will harness advancements in This will lead to massive automation of tasks, manufacturing and our
computing power, connectivity and immersive computing to deliver workforce. The trajectory of manual job automation continues with
richer experiences. the adoption of industrial and service robots across industries. The
World Economic Forum (WEF) predicts that robots will displace 75
Hypermobility will see us move from devices we carry and wear, to million jobs globally – and up to a third of workers in the U.S. may
computing that’s a part of us. Interfacing with technology will be as have to change occupations by 2030.33
natural as a glance, a hand wave or a thought. Technology will
seamlessly work in the background monitoring and enhancing our In November 2018, DHL announced a $300 million investment to
lives and workforce productivity. quadruple robots in its warehouses in 2019.34 And China is keenly
embracing the robot worker trend. In Shanghai, in 2018, for instance,
3D Transformation will fundamentally change how products are JD.com, an ecommerce company, unveiled a warehouse where only
designed and manufactured; democratizing the design process, four humans watch over a workforce of robots who are able to fulfill
creating more flexibility and speeding up the entire end-to-end 200,000 orders a day.35
production process.
There is even talk of giving this growing robotic workforce “rights”—
Internet of ALL Things will make way for a world where technology much like human labor rights and labor unions. In fact, in 2017 a
will become part of everyday objects and devices, connected and European Parliament legal affairs committee recommended a
communicating via the internet. This will provide access to real-time resolution that envisions special legal status to “electronic persons”
data that can be analyzed to provide predictive insights and rapid due to the increasing number of robots being deployed in factories
decision-making. and services industries.
PA G E 1 0THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
Optimizing
productivity
with AI
And it’s not just manual tasks that are being automated. Artificial With the exponential rate of change and technological
intelligence and robotics are being put to work performing high-level advancements, our virtual AI assistants will become smarter and
cognitive jobs from healthcare diagnosis to publishing and smarter, not only looking after our every need but anticipating them.
advertising, and even making investment decisions in the All of these technology advancements will blur the lines between our
boardroom. As an example, take a look at the ad agency McCann in physical and digital worlds to make us more productive and more
Japan, which now has the world’s first ever AI creative director.36 creative, freeing us to spend time with the people we love. At HP, we
call this Blended Reality: the fusing together of our physical and
This smart movement will impact every aspect of our lives, with digital worlds, to create new and improved experiences for people.
intelligent agents and bots always at the ready, orchestrating our
digital lives. From prioritizing your email to scheduling your calendar, As technology leaders and innovators, it will be up to us to look out
and from sending flowers to your mother on her birthday to planning for new emerging technologies on the horizon, that will one day
and booking your vacations—bots may become as critical to our become the future building blocks for huge new products and
existence as the internet itself is today. And though they might be services that enrich our customers’ lives.
shifting us away from certain jobs, they’ll be creating new ones.
According to the WEF, robots and algorithms will “vastly improve” the Robots and algorithms will vastly improve the productivity of existing
productivity of existing workers and jobs – resulting in many new workers and jobs – resulting in many new roles.
roles in the years to come.37
PA G E 1 1THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS
TRANSFORMING HOW WE LIVE AND WORK
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