THE INFLUENCE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ON THE PREPARATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND OF THE TERRITORY FOR DEFENSE

Page created by Lee Valdez
 
CONTINUE READING
THE INFLUENCE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ON THE PREPARATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND OF THE TERRITORY FOR DEFENSE
International Conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION
                                           Vol. XXVII     No 1     2021

  THE INFLUENCE OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES ON THE PREPARATION
   OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND OF THE TERRITORY FOR DEFENSE

                           Gabriel MĂNESCU, Sebastian-Emanuel STAN

                    ”Nicolae Bălcescu” Land Forces Academy, Sibiu, Romania
                    manescug@yahoo.com, sebastian.stan@armyacademy.ro

Abstract: The paper reviews the main factors relevant to the preparation of the economy and
territory for defense as well as the main developments of military applications of disruptive
technologies. The brief presentation of some of these technologies, as well as the exemplification with
certain data regarding their use, come to outline the need to constantly adapt defense policies to the
new trends in this field.

Keywords: disruptive technologies, defence policy, economical power, military power

1. Introduction                                               As a component of national security, the
Preparing the territory to ensure the                         preparation of the economy and territory for
conditions necessary to defend its integrity                  defense is based on the provisions of the
in time of war is not a novel issue. The                      Constitution, laws and documents on
experience of the wars has shown that,                        national defense planning and, last but not
since ancient times, there have been                          least, the obligations that our country has
concerns about the material resources                         assumed through international treaties and
needed to sustain military conflicts, that                    agreements. According to Art.2 of Law no.
they should be accumulated in time and                        477/2003 on the preparation of the national
preserved on the territory, in districts hard                 economy and the territory for defense, “the
to reach for the enemy, near likely areas of                  preparation of the national economy and
fighting. Thus, in the feudal era, on the                     the territory for defense includes the set of
territory of our homeland, the necessary                      measures and actions that are established
means for defense against invaders were                       and carried out in peacetime, in order to
kept in fortresses usually built near the                     use the economic and human potential of
country’s borders, which played a special                     the country, fin order to address the needs
role in the great anti-Ottoman battles                        of defense and ensure the continuity of
carried out under the leadership of the                       economic and social activities in case of
brilliant voivodes Mircea cel Bătrân, Stefan                  mobilization or war”[1].
cel Mare, Mihai Viteazul and others,
serving as strongholds in the fight to defend                 2. Organization and Preparation of the
the territorial integrity and the national                    Territory for Defense Needs
existence of our people and aimed to                          From the point of view of the conditions for
preserve weapons, ammunition, food,                           defense, the land presents extremely varied
medicine and other means necessary for                        conditions, from the natural obstacles,
popular resistance.                                           formed by the hydrographic network,

DOI: 10.2478/kbo-2021-0031
© 2015. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 License.

                                                        204
orographic barriers, and forested lands and              From the point of view of natural
up to anthropic buildings with exclusive                 conditions, the axiom remains that the
destination.                                             heavily rugged and forested lands are easier
Natural conditions can be favorable or                   to defend, even with reduced forces in the
restrictive factors in terms of defense needs.           face of a formidable enemy.
The organization and preparation of the                  The case of the harassment of German
territory for defense is conditioned by three            troops in the former Yugoslav space by J.B.
essential factories, namely:                             Tito during World War II is one of the most
 natural conditions;                                    eloquent examples of efficient land use.
 the state and economic structure of a                  Extreme climatic conditions are established
    territory    and      the    infrastructural         as repulsive and hostile factors for invading
    conditions;                                          troops. In parallel with the weakening of
 the evolution of fighting technique and                the fighting potential, the Russian winter
    defense policy.                                      was a reliable ally in stopping the German
It is well-known that intramountaneous                   invasion of Moscow during World War II.
territories, accessible by peaks or passes,              American soldiers during the Vietnam War
can be more easily defended by the                       had an additional enemy in the high
punctual and safe nature of the placement                temperature and humidity and the
of roads from a possible invasion.                       unstoppable invasions of mosquitoes.
Defending passes has always been a                       In the current situation of Romanian army’s
priority in state defense policy. Invasion               involvement on the anti-terrorist front in
troops can be caught in ambushes, and a                  Afghanistan or the establishment of calm
small number of attack forces can                        and reconstruction of Iraq, the soldiers
completely decimate the troops and the                   complain mostly not about the perfidy and
invasion technique.                                      strength of the enemy, but more often about
Water crossings, with low banks and                      the unbearable heat and desert dust.
shallow waters, are speculated for the                   The economy of the states is dualistic, in
crossing of troops and combat equipment.                 the sense that it satisfies both civil needs
That is why, as a rule, such points are                  par excellence, but also military needs.
strongly defended.                                       During wars, a large part of the productive
The forested territories are formidable                  forces are converted to support the war (the
shelters for manpower and fighting                       transition from production for civilian
equipment. The organization of the defense               needs to military production). In many
in a forested field is favored by the                    cases, no distinction can be made between
possibilities of masking and sheltering the              civilian and military production (e.g. food
troops and fighting equipment and by the                 industry, textile industry, etc.).
obstacle posed by the tree trunks in the way             The territorial concentration of the
of motorized means of combat and                         population, of production and their
ammunition.                                              supporting infrastructures (railroads, roads,
The forest offers the most effective means               canals, channels, airports, lines for the
of masking troops in advancing and                       transportation of electricity, gas and oil
retreating actions, in parallel with sheltering          main avenues, water accumulations, etc.) is
then in the dark of night.                               also a factor of remarkable territorial
Numerous examples are known from the                     strength and a vulnerability factor that
time of the second world conflagration,                  requires additional and diversified defense
when whole units in daytime marches were                 measures.
decimated by machine guns from low-                      Logically, strong and modern economies
altitude aircraft.                                       allocate more substantial funds for defense.
                                                         The more advanced the economy, the more

                                                   205
sophisticated, diversified and effective the           transforming disruptive technologies into
fighting technique. Strong economies                   military capabilities will provoke a
support warring states more effectively.               paradigm shift in international relations
Anthropic structures support the defense               and security studies” [3].
needs from the perspective of their                    Military specialists and politico-military
destination, type and the materials from               analysts are united in the belief that the
which they are built.                                  most important military technologies with
                                                       disruptive potential are biotechnology,
3. Disruptive technologies                             artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons
The concept of disruption is not a new one,            systems, hypersonic weapons, directed
being initially characteristic of the field of         energy weapons and quantum technology.
electrical engineering. Harvard professor              Of course, some of these, for example
Clayton Christensen widely publicized the              biotechnologies, artificial intelligence and
disruptive potential and especially that of            quantum technology, can in many cases be
disruptive innovation in his book The                  of the dual-use type, but in this paper we
Innovator’s Dillemma, published more than              aimed to highlight only their military
two decades ago, in which he describes                 aspects.
disruption as “a new concept radically                 Biotechnology is “the field which exploits
changing the foundation of competition in              biological sciences in order to develop new
an industry” [2]. According to Christensen,            technologies, some with very serious
there are two main types of technological              implications for national security” [4].
innovations: sustainable and disruptive.               If the general public agrees with these and
Sustainable innovations are introduced to              is aware of the benefits of this technology
maintain a direction of past performance,              in various fields, the recent pandemic crisis
preferred by most consumers. In contrast,              generated by the SARS-Cov 2 virus, comes
disruptive innovations introduce a                     to overshadow and ridicule the results of
different value proposition on the market,             decades of research. And this is due to the
even if the product's performance is lower,            failure of any organization / state to assume
at least on short term.                                the factors that led to its emergence, the
As expected, the concept of disruption was             lack of transparency and procrastination in
quickly assimilated into almost all sectors            communicating the results of investigations,
of economic, social, political and military            the delayed or disproportionate response of
life.                                                  state institutions and, last but not least,
Precisely due to the ability to manifest in            moral aspects / ethics.
various fields of activity and to the impact           Certainly, one of the best known areas with
they entail, disruptive technologies are the           disruptive potential is that of artificial
subject of studies and analyzes of                     intelligence (AI) which can be defined as "a
institutions involved in their development             machine capable of imitating the cognitive
or which have identified direct / indirect             functions      which     we    conventionally
threats.                                               associate with humans and create human-
The disruptive military technology is “an              level knowledge" [5]. AI is used at a large-
improved or completely new technology                  scale, with military applications, such as
which is capable of fundamentally changing             C4ISR, cyber operations, military logistics
the traditional models of security and                 systems, semi-autonomous and autonomous
defence. The impact of these technologies              weapons systems, etc. Lately we have
will be in the necessity to redefine classic           witnessed an unprecedented development of
security     strategies,   modify     military         the phenomenon called "deep fake", based
doctrines, adapt operational context or                on AI and which has the ability to replicate
even the logic of war. Furthermore,                    in "target environments" and which has the

                                                 206
role of providing a distorted picture of                with the aim of inducing strong perceptions
reality in order to undermine trust in the              with potential for a credible distortion of
state authorities in charge of ensuring the             objectivity needed in major decision
defense and national security of the other              moments.
areas vital for the survival of the state. Of           A practical example, which combines the
course, this phenomenon is not new either,              potential of AI with the development of
but the approach and the channels through               flight systems, is that of drones, which are
which it is achieved is novel, the ability to           able to take certain decisions independently.
bypass the established filters is innovative,           Their evolution is shown in figure no. 1.

                         Figure 1: Brief history of UAV’s development [6]

In support of the above, we must specify                nautical miles and, especially that there
that relatively recent facts come to illustrate         have been no reports of ships that raise
the capabilities of UAVs. In July 2019,                 suspicions about capabilities to use these
several US Navy destroyers were                         systems in the area.
maneuvering when, during the night,                     The autonomous lethal weapons will be “a
swarms of small drones harassed military                category of weapons systems which can
ships. The event was not a singular one, as             identify, engage and destroy targets without
such events were reported and recorded in               human intervention. In the configuration of
the ship's logs and in the following nights.            such     weapons      we      find    advanced
What US military officials consider                     calculations, analysis and decisions systems;
worrying is the fact that the presence of               sensors which can observe, identify and
these UAVs has been reported at great                   classify an object as hostile, as well as target
distances from the shore, at over 160                   guidance equipment. Their autonomy will

                                                  207
allow them to operate in difficult                      We consider that for our investigative
environments           for      long-distance           approach, the presentation of these
communication, command and control                      capabilities of disruptive technologies are
means” [7]. Although these systems are                  more than eloquent. As new information on
highly desirable by the armed forces,                   the development of these technologies
fortunately they have not yet been equipped             becomes available, we will be able to make
with them, due to concerns about their                  much more detailed predictions about the
control or more specifically whether the                configuration of possible conflicts.
systems will be able to provide sufficient
credible guarantees that they will comply               4. Conclusions
with the rules of engagement in combat and              We       are    witnessing    unprecedented
with the laws of war that apply to the people.          technological        developments        that
Some of the most current weapons systems                significantly influence every aspect of life.
with disruptive potential are hypersonic                If we refer strictly to the military aspects,
weapons. The fierce competition between                 the implementation of new technologies,
Russia, the USA and China for supremacy                 especially the disruptive ones, we notice
in this field is well known, the first of these         that they can influence / change not only the
states having, according to some military               physiognomy of future conflicts, but also
analysts, at least two years ahead of their             the current power relations. Investing in
competitors. These systems will be able to              state-of-the-art technologies can bring
carry explosive charges, including nuclear,             double benefits. On the one hand, the
with speeds up to five times the speed of               economy of the states will benefit because
sound and at distances of 2-3000 km,                    all production processes / systems will
depending on their launch system, which                 benefit from the advantages offered by AI
gives them a high degree of protection                  by increasing efficiency and productivity
against interception and, at the same time,             and by becoming sustainable. On the other
an increased probability of hitting the                 hand, as economic power increases, so does
target. “Russia has stated that its Kh-47M2             the military power of the state. From this
Kinzhal is a hypersonic missile which has a             article it can be deduced with certainty that
range of 3,000 km, also taking into account             the first two factors that influence the
the flight autonomy of its carrier aircraft, if         defense potential of a state are canceled by
it is launched from the supersonic Tu-22M3              the development of new weapons systems
bomber, and 2,000 km if its launched from               that incorporate different disruptive
a MiG-31K fighter jet, the configuration on             technologies. Of course, politico-military
which the first tests took place. Among the             decision-makers will take into account the
missile’s potential targets are static or               influences of new technologies in
mobile objectives, either terrestrial or                developing defense policies that best
naval” [8].                                             correspond to the legitimate interests of the
                                                        state.

                                         References List

[1]   http://legislatie.just.ro/Public/DetaliiDocument/47873
[2]   Christensen, C. The Innovator’s Dillemma, Harvard Business School Press, Boston,
      Massachusetts, 1997Surname Initial(s). Book title. Edition - if available. Place:
      Publisher; Year.
[3]   Iancu, I. The new dictionary of defence: disruptive technologies, Defence & Security
      Monitor, 2019. Available from:https://en.monitorulapararii.ro/the-new-dictionary-of-
      defence-disruptive-technologies-1-23277
[4]   Idem

                                                  208
[5]   Idem
[6]   Badea, D., Mănescu, G., Iancu, D., Bucoveţchi, O., Dinicu, A. “Civilian – military
      interferences in the management of research for the security and defense field”, The 9th
      International Conference on Manufacturing Science and Education - MSE 2019, Sibiu,
      June 5 – 7, 2019, Romania, DOI: 10.1051/matecconf /20192901 MSE 2019 13001 3001
[7]   Iancu, I. Op. cit.
[8]   Idem

                                             209
You can also read