STATUS & TRENDS HEARTY WELCOME TO VISIT CHINA! - E-MOBILITY CHINA - WKO
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HEARTY WELCOME
TO VISIT CHINA!
E-MOBILITY CHINA
Tong Yanjun (Tony) STATUS & TRENDS
Fronius Intelligent Equipment SHANGHAI, OCT. 17TH, 2018
China Co., Ltd.
Guten Morgen!
[Zǎo Shàng Hǎo]
早 上 好
2
LITTLE ABOUT US…
FRONIUS is an Austrian company with three business units, our China
Headquarter is located in Shanghai Industrial Park of Robotics.
EV HISTORY – 19TH CENTURY
People often call Electric Vehicles as
New Energy Vehicles, in reality, EV is
not NEW, it came to the world earlier
than internal-combustion engine
vehicles in the 19th century.
4
Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
EV HISTORY – 20TH CENTURY
FIAT in 1994 EV1 by GM in 1996 Ranger EV by FORD in 1998
FIAT in 1994
Cinquecento Elettra by FIAT Qi by Takara CitiCar by Vanguard Sebring in 1973
YF1100 – the first HEV of China The first electric bus of China in 1998 The first Fuel Cell car of China by Tongji
University in 2003
in 1988
5
Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
TILL TODAY EV (Mainly including BEV and PHEV) Magic word?
Is it… reality !
ELECTRIC MOBILITY – THE OVER VIEW
IT IS… IRREVERSIBLE REALITY
REFERENCES FROM USA (TESLA) 116 CMT Machines & 65 Delta Spot Systems are working in TESLA
ALL EV FLOWERS BLOOM TOGETHER Many others… 11
EV MARKET SHARE COUNTRY WISE
China
1.1% Europe
17.7%
25.6% N America
49.5%
South Korea
1,990,000 EV
(including 1,620,000
BEV) ARE ON ROADS
OF CHINA as of Jun.
2018!
Data Source: Traffic
Management Bureau,
Ministry of Public SecurityCHINA EV INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 2017
2,000
FAST
GROWTH
China EV Annual Production Volume
(thousand units)
Including BEV and PHEV 1,560
1,200 Passenger BEV Passenger PHEV
51%
Commercial BEV Commercial PHEV
54%
794 Commercial
36% PHEV
Commercial 2%
517
BEV
379 24%
Passenger
84 Passenger BEV
18 PHEV 60%
14%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E
Passenger BEV Passenger PHEV Commercial BEV Commercial PHEV
Source: CAAM, MIIT Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02VEHICLES & EV PRODUCTION ROADMAP
PLANNED BY CHINA GOVERNMENT IN 2016
Year 2030
Year 2025
* 38,000,000
Year 2020
* 35,000,000 UNITS OF VEHICLES
UNITS OF VEHICLES * INCL. NEV 40-50%
* INCL. NEV 15-20% UP TO 19,000,000 UNITS
* 30,000,000 UP TO 7,000,00 UNITS
UNITS OF VEHICLES
* INCL. NEV 7-10%
DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINA
UP TO 3,000,000 UNITS
14
Fronius International GmbH / Umesh / E-Mobility / Nov 2017- v03CHINA EV INDUSTRY SWOT ANALYSIS
Strength Weakness
/ Government pushing / Lack of core technology
/ Natural resources / Inadequate infrastructure
/ Developed talent pool and cash pool for investment / Capability of resource integration
Opportunity Threat
/ Increasing oil price / Immature EV models VS mature traditional car models
/ Commitment to reduce emission / Still high manufacturing costs
/ Huge domestic market / Battery mileage range and safety
15
Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02CHINA EV BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT – POSITIVE SIDE
2. Sufficient electric grid > 6,500 TWh in 2017
1. Rich raw material resources of making EV
But ~70% is generated from coal now
Lithium Reserves Neodymium Reserves
7,000
20% 6,000
TWh
51% 49% 5,000
80% 4,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China Rest of world China Rest of world Gross electricity production Gross electricity consumption
3. Huge market and diversified customers demands 4.Government policies to motivate OEMs to build EV
and consumers to buy EV
16
Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02CHINA EV BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT – NEGATIVE SIDE
1. Increasing raw material cost and labor cost, low 2. Government subsidies is still the main driving force of
RoI at the initial stage of making small-volume EV selling / buying EV – how come once it is lower and
caused higher cost of EV. cancelled till 2020
3. Consumers’ confidence of buying and driving EV 4. Safety issues of Li-ion batteries
– safety, mileage, charging, maintenance etc..
17
Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02CHINESE GOVERNMENT POLICY SUPPORT
Production Purchase Usage
/ China has set the target of having 5 / Exempt NEVs from 10% purchase tax / Free NEV license plate
million NEVs on the road by 2020 / Fiscal subsidies: the national and local / No traffic restriction
according to the 13th five year plan governments had spent about 100 / Preferential parking policies
/ “Dual Credit” policy to push billion RMB on NEV subsidies in 2016 / 4.8 million charging poles will be built
automakers to expand NEV production and 2017 by 2020
/ Fiscal support for NEV R&D projects: / Promote NEV taxi and NEV bus
0.9 billion RMB in 2018 / At least 50% of government cars
should be NEVs by 2020
18
Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02ARE WE READY TO ADOPT THE EV BUSINESS?
Technology Car Body Grid and Infrastructure
Battery Management
Charging Stations
System
Production Standard industry Alliance
Industry Quality Standard R&D and Operation
talents
Skilled
Standard ResourcesKEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP
New Material and Light-Weighting
• HSS / Al / Mg / Carbon Fibre
• Forming / Joining technology / Structure
• Material cost & fabrication cost
2020 2025 2030
Weight Reduction
compared with that 10% lower 20% lower 35% lower
of 2015
Third generation automotive
High Strength Steel >600MPa: 50% per car > 2000MPa used
steel: 30%
Aluminum >190kg / car 250kg / car 350kg / car
Magnesium >15kg / car > 25kg / car >45kg / car
Carbon fibre
Used with certain weight
reinforced Weight > 2% per car Weight > 5%
Cost down by 50% compared with
composite Further cost down by 50% Further cost down by 50%
that of 2015
20
DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINACOMPLETE LIGHT WEIGHT BODY & CHASSIS SYSTEM
In order to increase
the efficiency of the
Vehicle, the weight of
the Body need to be
reduced. How ?
New Materials like
Aluminium & High
strength steel will be
more in useKEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP
Power Battery
• Energy density / Reliability / Mileage range / Life
• Joining technology for battery pack
• Cost per Wh
Energy Density of Cell Target of Mileage Range
(Wh/kg) (km)
600 600
500 500
500 500
400 400
KM of one charge
400 350 400
300 300
Wh/kg
300 250 300
200
200 200
100 100
0 0
Y2020 Y2025 Y2030 Y2020 Y2025 Y2030
坐标轴标题
BEV PHEV
22
It was ≥110Wh/kg as of July 2016 DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINANEWER COMPONENTS IN PLACE
Battery Box
Manufacturing
requires Light
Weighting with the
supreme quality to
achieve the reliable
performanceKEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP
Charging Infrastructure
• Charging Rate
• Convenience and Availability of charging stations
• Standardization of charging piles
Growth target of Charging Infrastructure
90,000,000
80,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
Pieces
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000 5,000,000
3,600 57,000 12,000 36,000 48,000
-
Y2015 Y2020 Y2025 Y2030
No.of Charging Stations 3,600 12,000 36,000 48,000
No.of Charging Piles 57,000 5,000,000 20,000,000 80,000,000
No.of Charging Stations No.of Charging Piles
24
DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINAKEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP
Fuel Cell Vehicles
• Hydrogen cell technology
• Production Target:
• 5000pcs in Y2020,
• 50,000pcs in Y2025,
• 1,000,000pcs in Y2030
Intelligent Connected Vehicles
• Environment Perception /Obstacle Detection & Avoidance / Navigation Control /
Information Communication / Path Plan / Passenger Safety / Human-machine
Communication / Condition Monitoring / Accommodating & Management
Sales Channels
•• Brand Name Promotion
• Experience Center + Direct Sales? Online Sales? Traditional 4S Shop?
•• Environmental awareness
Geography Coverage and Technology
Convenience?/ Intelligent Decision-Making Technology /
•• Big
HowDATA Technology
to make 4S Shop of certain brand survive when EV Population is small?
• Pilotless Drive Technology
25Summary: Making a car is easy Making a good car is difficult Making good cars constantly is very difficult EV, is even more…
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