Tom Lee HEAD OF RESEARCH - Buyer's strike = busted tape. Nasdaq underperformance so bad, since 1985 = future relative gains - FSInsight
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Market Data Insight for Actionable Strategy First Word April 27, 2022 Buyer's strike = busted tape. Nasdaq underperformance so bad, since 1985 = future relative gains Tom Lee HEAD OF RESEARCH We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: Monday SKIP TUESDAY Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday Russia escalation by cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria rattles markets... Markets are still rattled by war headlines. Russia announced plans to cut natural gas supplies to Poland. Russia is following through on its demands that gas supplies be paid in Rubles. And this appears in retaliation for Poland providing escalating support to Ukraine in the war efforts. And generally, this highlights the dependency and vulnerability of Europe to Russian energy resources. For important disclosures, see Page 13 Page 1
First Word April 27, 2022 Source: Bloomberg In fact, this infographic by the FT (thanks for flagging Chris Robb) shows the European nations most dependent on Russian imports of natural gas and oil. The easternmost nations in Europe are almost entirely dependent on Russian gas and oil. Page 2
First Word April 27, 2022 Source: FT While this seems to be a catalyst for furthering the "buyer's strike" in equities, this does not change the overall case for S&P 500 TINA (there is no alternative). That is, there are two dimensions of TINA: Stocks over bonds: given inflationary pressures + Fed hawkishness = stocks TINA USA vs rest of World: war risks + China COVID + US resilience = USA TINA In other words, the S&P 500 remains the "cleanest dirty shirt" or "biggest shrimp" Page 3
First Word April 27, 2022 Source: Fundstrat and google image search USA (+ other energy producers) vastly outperforming rest of world... The regional relative performance charts highlight the leadership of USA versus rest of world. As highlighted below: USA and other energy producers leading - USA + Canada + much of Latin America + Australia Russian Energy-dependent struggling - Europe China COVID-impacted hurting - Japan + Korea Has anything changed in this calculus? No. As long as this war continues, the case for USA TINA is intact. Page 4
First Word April 27, 2022 TINA: US long-term bonds down -19% YTD Similarly, equities are still providing relatively safer returns than bonds. Take a look at the YTD performance of S&P 500 versus the 30-year bond: S&P 500 is down 11.5% YTD 30-year bond is down 19% YTD US households own $55 trillion in bonds the only way for bonds to recover is for a recession there are multiple ways for equities to recover In this case, equities can recover in multiple ways. Unless, a recession is underway. In that case, bonds recover faster than equities. Page 5
First Word April 27, 2022 STRATEGY: Nasdaq 100 worst 6M relative performance to S&P 500 since dot-com bubble Equities remain under a buyer's strike. This has been a bludgeoning since last Thursday. The carnage in NASDAQ continued Tuesday, with large-cap technology down 3%-4%, spearheading the downturn associated with the broader market buyer's strike. As shown below: Nasdaq 100 has underperformed the S&P 500 by 950bp in the past 6 months this is the worst since the dot-com days (2002 era) or worst in 20 years Page 6
First Word April 27, 2022 ...Nasdaq underperformance is in the bottom decile = historically, strong forward signal The deciles of relative return are shown below and the associated 6-month forward performance. Notice something startling? when Nasdaq 100 $QQQ underperformance is bottom decile (like Tuesday) forward 6M returns extraordinary ex-dot-com, 6M returns beat S&P 500 97% of the time relative outperformance is 950bp In other words, there are factors aligning favoring a bounce in Tech/FANG/Nasdaq: Page 7
First Word April 27, 2022 rates stabilizing underperformance so acute, that it reverts Technology can still grow in a growth recession ...Sector leadership is not showing recession risk as much as anything but Technology Below is our sector performance chart and the relative staging of the sectors. The reason I am showing this chart is to highlight that sector leadership is not really signaling a recession: if a recession were imminent, we would expect Defensives to lead such as Staples, Healthcare, Utes and Telcos Leadership, instead is a combination of: Energy + Materials Page 8
First Word April 27, 2022 Defensives Stabilizing performance of Transports, Industrials and Financials This is eclectic. As shown below, we have labeled the relative explanatory variables. So sector leadership is really a result of: inflation --> Energy + Materials "real" GDP growth --> Industrials + Transports rising rates --> Financials "risk off" --> Defensives So, as ugly as this tape has been, it also does not necessarily signal a recession risk broadly. If anything, this seems to be more about the relative underperformance of Technology/ Nasdaq. ...US rates have been falling for the past 7 trading sessions, but equities not yet reflecting this Page 9
First Word April 27, 2022 Earlier this week, we noted that JPMorgan Fixed Income strategists talked about the fact that the interest rate market has priced in a nearly "max hawkish" view of rate hikes. That is, they saw little room for rates to push higher, as markets were pricing in a lot of tightening. this seems to be the case in the past 7 trading sessions despite Fed Powell's increasingly hawkish interview at IMF on 4/21 (see below) both 2-yr and 10-yr rates have been falling Page 10
First Word April 27, 2022 STRATEGY: We lean "bullish" into 2Q2022, but warn of jagged next few months... Stick with BEEF To recap on equity strategy, we are leaning bullish into 2Q2022. Stocks have continued to be treacherous in 2022. Investors are on a hair trigger. - this is in context to a challenging 1H2022 - so jagged next 3 months - but > 88% probability that bottom for 2022 is in Broadly, our existing sector strategy of BEEF remains valid. Even in war. Even with inflation. In fact, the last few weeks are strengthening the case for our "BEEF" strategy. That is, BEEF is - Bitcoin + Bitcoin Equities $BITO $GBTC $BITW - Energy - FAANG $FNGS $QQQ Combined, it can be shorted to BEEF. Why is this making stronger BEEF? - Energy supply is now a sovereign priority - this helps Energy stocks - Ukraine and Russia both want access to alternative currencies - this strengthens case for Bitcoin and bitcoin equities - if Global economy slows, growth stocks lead - hence, FANG starts to lead $FB $AAPL $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG All in all, one wants to be Overweight BEEF Page 11
First Word April 27, 2022 _____________________________ 31 Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/5. Full stock list here –> Click here _____________________________ POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases This data will be updated every Friday. POINT 2: Vaccination Progress This data will be updated every Friday. POINT 3: Tracking the seasonality of COVID-19 This data will be updated every Friday. Page 12
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