US Democratic Presidential Candidates - Tracker July 2019
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US Democratic Presidential Candidates Tracker July 2019
Background & process There is no doubt the U.S 2020 Presidential is shaping up to be one of the most contesting presidential races. A little less than a year and a half until election day (3 November 2020), over 20 democratic candidates have announced their intent to run. Though it is not unusual to see a large number of candidates running a year before the election, 24 candidates, as of July 2019, is simply unprecedented. There could be several explanations for this, such as a ripe political environment (there is no democratic incumbent seeking a re-election), an increase in the donor base, and a vast political and moral divide in the country that has inspired Democrats to rise to the occasion. It is likely a mixture of all these factors, which does not make the road to November 2020 less confusing. The election process must start early so candidates have ample time to garner support for their campaign and hit key states during primaries and caucuses. However, even though there are dozens of candidates to choose from, this number will quickly diminish as funding becomes limited but crucial to maintaining support. It is likely that the top candidates who have garnered the most attention early on will maintain their position in the upcoming year.
The road ahead
General
Election
National November 3,
Convention 2020
July 2020
Primaries &
Caucuses
February 2020
– July 2020
Debates
June 2019 – April
2020
Stage 1: Debates June 2019 – April 2020 The Democratic debates are scheduled across the end of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020. They will air prime time across the United States, offering candidates a chance to explain their policies to the public. They are also helpful in determining a candidate’s performance. For example, though she was a newcomer, Kamala Harris impressed the audience with her replies and targeted scrutiny. Meanwhile, Beto O’Rourke has failed to grab anyone’s attention because of his lacklustre performance. Further, candidates will begin to drop out of the race after failing to secure proper funding to obtain a spot on the debates, allowing the events to become more focused. If you wish to see specific dates, you can view this helpful outline by the New York Times.
Stage 2: Primaries &
Caucuses
February 2020 – July 2020
• Voters directly • Can take much • Though the format
Primaries
Conclusion
Caucuses
select their longer than a of the two
preferred candidate primary; voters processes are
through a secret enter a venue, hear different, the goal is
ballot. different to gauge support
• There are different supporters/debate, for candidates.
types of primaries, and conclude on That is why many
depending on the who will make the candidates up their
state, but most best candidate. campaigning in the
states utilize Opinions can be states where they
primaries. swayed. are about to occur.
• Simply "checking • A handful of states Showing good
the box“ to select a still have caucuses. primary results can
candidate. increase credibility,
funding, and media
coverage.
Stage 2: Primaries &
Caucuses
February 2020 – July 2020
Every state has different rules and poorly during this critical time supported here.
regulations, and only a handful of period, they may cut their losses
• Nevada, which also holds
states still hold caucuses. The and drop out of the race; indeed,
caucuses, is important because
nuances of the various types of the number of candidates will be
it will have a high turnout rate of
primaries are not necessary to dramatically reduced in the first
Hispanics (a key demographic
memorise; what is important, couple of months of 2020.
for Democrats).
however, is that primaries are
Though these preliminary activities
helpful in gauging preliminary • Super Tuesday: a variety of
do not give definitive answers to
support. Further, certain states are states will hold primaries on
who will be elected, it is important
influential in determining who has March 3 (Super Tuesday), which
to note that some states give a
a chance to win. will account for roughly 40% of
valuable outlook into a candidate’s
the delegate allocation. The
The results that are collected by support with key populations:
outcome of the race can almost
“checking the ballot” at a primary
• Iowa is one of the only states always be captured here.
and selecting a preferred
that still holds a caucus, where a
candidate at a caucus. These are • The Midwestern primaries
small majority of the population
useful metrics for presidential capture the votes of working
elects its candidate on a national
candidates to realistically gauge class, suburban, and African-
platform. Because it is the first
their chance of winning. If a American population.
caucus, a candidate can gain
candidate continues to perform
major momentum by being
Key states
Other key states that candidates will focus on will be swing states. Increasingly, more states
are beginning to lean “purple,” meaning that the proportion of Republican and Democratic
voters is becoming close to 50/50. Also known as key “battleground” states, for 2020 they
include Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. This is not a full or comprehensive list, as dynamics can
quickly alter, but based on the November 2018 Congressional elections, these states should
probably not be ignored by the candidates.
Stage 3: National Convention July 2020 By August 2020, when the Democratic convention is held, the candidate field will be narrowed down enough for the party to put forth their official candidate for the presidency. A national convention is essentially a large caucus with much pomp and circumstance. At this point, after months of primaries, it will be obvious who the Democratic nominee will be; however, the national convention will hold a grand show to formally put forward their candidate. Registered party members will select individuals to represent their state at the national convention, where they will formally select the presidential nominee. Other delegates that attend the convention include party leaders, activists, congressmen, and other prominent political figures.
Stage 4: General Election November 3, 2020 In November, voters will go out to cast their ballots. This will determine the popular vote. The result boils down to the decision of the electoral college, which is the deciding factor on who becomes president. Often, the general vote coincides with the votes of the electoral college, but it is not always the case. Al Gore (2000) and Hillary Clinton (2016) both won the general election but failed to garner electoral support. Electors are chosen in a two-part process. First, political parties in each state chose a variety of electors before the election, and on election day the voters select the state’s electors by casting their vote for president. The elector’s names may or may not appear on the ballot, depending on local state rules and regulations. Of the 538 electoral votes across the United States, a candidate must get a simple majority (270) to win.
Top-ple
Trumps©
Top-ple Trumps©
A look at the Top 10 candidates for
the Democratic Presidential
nomimation
Democratic
Presidential
CandidatesThe Top 3 Warren, Biden & Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
The solid choice
Polling*: 15%
Odds*: 7/2
Top-ple Trump file Recognition: High
• Senator from Voter confidence: High
Massachusetts
Political experience: High
• Former Advisor to
Obama on the FCPB Strength: Has a
• Former chair of the respectable political career
Troubled Asset Relief and strong democratic
Program leaning policies
• Former law professor
• Author of several Weakness: May not be the
successful bipartisan “first-choice” candidate for
bills most, but rather a solid
• Released ancestry alternative
results claiming she is
part Native American
after Trump calls her
Pocahontas
*CNN polling, 18/07/19; Ladbrokes odds, 19/07/19Joe Biden
Democrat?
Polling*: 25%
Odds*: 4/1
Top-ple Trump file Recognition: Very high
• Senator for 36 years Voter confidence: Very
before becoming Vice high
President to Obama
Leaning: Centrist
• Chaired the Judiciary
and Foreign Relations Strengths: Long career in
committees politics, with first-hand
• Tends to hold centrist experience with the
views (i.e supports presidency. Could appeal
border security but not a to a moderate democrat
wall, Catholic but is pro- audience
choice)
• Supported typically Weakness: Lacklustre
conservative laws in the performance in recent
past debates, and a history of
• Potentially Trump’s supporting conservative
biggest challenger policies
*CNN polling, 18/07/19; Ladbrokes odds, 19/07/19Bernie Sanders
Grandfather of the Grassroots Revolution
Polling*: 15%
Odds*: 10/1
Top-ple Trump file Voter confidence: High
• Vermont Senator, former Political experience: Very
congressman and Mayor high
of Burlington
Funding: $18.2 million just
• Independent, but
41 days after starting
caucuses w/ Democrats
• Prominent leader of Strength: A leader in the
universal healthcare modern democratic
• Typically considered movement, with many of
“radical” until his views his policies serving as a
became more platform for other
mainstream in 2016 candidates
• Many of the Democratic
Weakness: Considered a
candidates support his
“bad” socialist by some;
ideas and use them in
targets a small sector of
their platform
extremely liberal voters
• Credited for energizing
young voters in 2016
*CNN polling, 18/07/19; Ladbrokes odds, 19/07/19Analysis The Top 3 The top 3 candidates are all quite ideologically different yet have an extremely important presence in the race. Bernie Sanders made headway in 2016 as his policies for universal healthcare and closing the inequality gap gained major traction with young liberal voters. His race in 2016 created the grassroots movement that managed to bring in over $18 million in just over a month after his announcement that he would run in 2020. Further, his policies are driving the campaign rhetoric for almost all the other candidates. Though Sanders possesses a massive grassroots following, the reality is that most American voters do not swing as left as he does. He will have trouble leading ahead of Biden and Warren, who are both more moderate in their positions. Joe Biden also has large name recognition. However, Biden is likely to appeal to a wider audience with his centrist views and direct experience with the Oval Office as vice-president to Barack Obama. Though he has the highest chance of winning the bid, he may not be as ideologically Democratic as some voters wish, as he has supported some widely controversial and arguably conservative policies during his time in Congress. This, however, can also be to his advantage as he could potentially target on-the-fence voters (i.e the ones who identify as Republican but are fed up with Trump’s antics). If Biden wishes to really advance his campaign and come face-to-face with Trump, he must amp up his debate skills, as he has fallen short in the first debate. Realistically, if anyone can take on Trump in 2020, it will be Joe Biden. His political experience, moderate Democratic policies, and general likability are all in his favour, along with a 25% national vote in the early stages of the race. Elizabeth Warren is a top contender because of her traditional Democratic stance. She possess past political success under the Obama administration and has remained fairly uncontroversial (except for when she released DNA results that she had Native American DNA after Trump called her Pocahontas). Despite this, she is basically the run of the mill candidate with experience and a humble career to back her up. She is likely to contend closely with Biden, but may have trouble garnering support from voters as their “first choice” candidate. However, she still has a fighting chance and will likely last through the end stages of the race.
Strong contenders Harris, Booker, O’Rourke & Buttigeig
Kamala Harris
The Rising Star
Polling*: 16%
Odds*: 9/4
Top-ple Trump file Recognition: High
• California Senator Voter confidence:
• Former CA Attorney Moderate
General and District
Political experience:
Attorney of San Fran
Moderate/High
• Endorsed several
progressive policies, e.g. Strength: Has garnered
Medicare for All and significant support in a
overhauling ICE short amount of time (inc.
• Won $25 billion $1.5m funding in first 24
compensation for hrs of campaign) and
homeowners after continues to shine in
financial crisis and won debates
a $1.1 billion settlement
Weakness: Has flipped
against a predatory for-
support on major
profit college chain
incarceration policies; can
• Has raised a large
be seen as hypocritical
amount of money
*CNN polling, 18/07/19; Ladbrokes odds, 19/07/19Cory Booker
Good but not great
Polling*:Beto O’Rourke
Bouncing back
Polling*:Pete Buttigeig
A younger Joe Biden
Polling*: 5%
Odds*: 10/1
Top-ple Trump file Recognition: Low
• Mayor of South Bend, Voter confidence: Low
Indiana
Political experience: Low
• Former consultant for
McKinsey & Company Leaning: Centrist
• Former US Navy
Reserve Officer Strengths: Steadily
• Openly gay candidate increased recognition and
running in a red state funding. Honourable past
• Successful career as as a veteran – a new and
Mayor: revitalising the humble face in the race
downtown and Weaknesses: May not
overseeing a $50 million have the political
investment in South experience as some of the
Bend’s parks and other candidates to get
riverfront voted into office (difficult to
go straight from mayor to
president)
*CNN polling, 18/07/19; Ladbrokes odds, 19/07/19Analysis Strong contenders Kamala Harris has quickly made her way up the ladder as she displayed a strong debate presence and has emphasized her criminal justice policies. Cory Booker, who has also been a nationally known advocate for criminal justice and mass incarceration reform, seems to align similarly to Harris. Despite being relatively new names in the political world (compared to Sanders, Biden, and Warren), they have garnered a large support base and impressive amounts of funding. Harris and Booker are the two to watch during the debates to see if they have potential to move forward. Realistically speaking, Harris may have the better chance as she is ranked on national polls. It would also be a shame not to mention Beto O’Rourke’s fighting chance. O’Rourke gained national attention last November during the Senate elections when he sought to win Ted Cruz’s Senator position representing Texas. Though O’Rourke lost this race, it was by an extremely close margin, highlighting the success of a fresh Democratic candidate in a traditionally Republican state. However, his presidential campaign seems to be lacking the fever the Senate campaign contained. O’Rourke may be burned out or has simply gained all the traction he can, but if he strengthens his debate presence, he could gain the same attraction as he did in Texas less than a year ago. It may be surprising that Pete Buttigieg has garnered 5% of national support. He is a newcomer in the political field, having only served as mayor in Indiana. Though his campaign is gaining traction (he could make history as the first openly gay president), it is unlikely that the public will elect a candidate straight from a mayoral position to the Oval Office. It is likely that he will continue to garner support and a loyal electoral base, but he simply cannot compete with political veterans such as Joe Biden, who have years of experience to fall back on. If Beto O’Rourke strengthens his campaign soon, the public would likely trust him a bit more over Buttigieg.
(Very) outside chance Castro, Yang & Klobuchar
Julian Castro
Stable candidate
Polling*:Andrew Yang
A fresh perspective
Polling*:Amy Klobuchar
Midwest realist
Polling*:Analysis (Very) outside chance Though stranger things have happened in American politics, the election of the bottom 3 candidates is unlikely. Andrew Yang, though progressive, has zero political experience, giving the general public no reason to believe he can handle the pressures of the presidency. He has a fresh perspective on fixing some of the most urgent and modern problems facing the United States but continues to struggle with extremely low name recognition. Julian Castro can utilise his family’s immigrant background, but unfortunately has made little spark in the political realm. He has supported progressive policies while mayor such as fair housing and renewable energy, the public views him as an average candidate. Amy Klobuchar sits in a similar spot as Julian Castro, though she has more political experience. She has had a successful run as Senator and will likely appeal to midwestern voters, but she has not ranked on the national polls because voters tend to chose her as an alternate candidate. Voters think she’s good, but she is still not their first choice. Overall, these three candidates will maintain a fighting chance because of their decent funding rates but will probably not be able to garner enough support as the stakes get higher in the upcoming months. As for the rest of the 14 candidates… at least they’re trying.
Full list of candidates
As of July 2019
Michael Bennet (Colorado) Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) Beto O’Rourke (Texas)*
Joe Biden (Delaware)* Kirsten Gillibrand (New York) Tim Ryan (Ohio)
Bill de Blasio (New York) Kamala Harris (California)* Bernie Sanders (Vermont)*
Cory Booker (New Jersey)* John Hickenlooper (Colorado) Joe Sestak (Pennsylvania)
Steve Bullock (Montana) Jay Inslee (Washington) Tom Steyer (California)
Pete Buttigieg (Indiana)* Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota)* Elizabeth Warren
(Massachusetts)*
Julian Castro (Texas)* Wayne Messam (Florida)
Marianne Williamson (Texas)
John Delaney (Maryland) Seth Moulton (Massachusetts)
Andrew Yang (New York)*
*Indicates a top candidateYou can also read
