US Elections 2020 SPECIAL ADVISORY - Healix
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SPECIAL ADVISORY
US Elections 2020
In what may be one of the most controversial
elections in US history, our experts lay out the
significance of the 3rd November vote.
1
Contents
1 Introduction & the electoral Pg. 3
system
3 The candidates Pg. 4
4 The swing states Pg. 5
5 Primary policy issues Pg. 8
6 Unique issues Pg. 10
7 Polling Pg. 13
8 Scenarios Pg. 16
9 Advice Pg. 17
10 How can Healix assist? Pg. 18
2
Introduction
The United States of America will hold its presidential and congressional
elections on 3rd November 2020, in what may be one of the most controversial
elections in American history.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has altered the dynamics of the election to an
unprecedented level. Election day will be the culmination of a tumultuous year for the
country. The outbreak of COVID-19, race and inequality protests, and a divisive president
have revealed deep divisions within American society. The partisan nature of this election
increases the possibility of civil unrest in the run-up to, and aftermath of election day.
This report will lay out the key features of this year’s presidential election. From the
candidates and the all-important swing states to foreign interference and the transitional
risks associated with the election, our experts analyse the significance of the vote.
THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM
The US presidential election will take place on 3rd November, with approximately 239 million
eligible American citizens either having voted early by post or in-person, or voting on election
day at polling stations throughout the country. Voters, however, will not technically be voting
directly for either candidate. Instead, they will be voting for representatives of that
candidate’s party, who are known as electors or Electoral College Votes (ECVs). In total,
538 electors then vote for the president on the behalf of the states that they represent.
The number of electors is determined by the number of congressional districts a state has
and an additional two to represent a state’s Senate seats. For example, California has 53
congressional districts and two senators and, therefore, a total of 55 electors. A candidate
must win at least 270 electors to be elected as president. Most states operate a winner-
takes-all approach to the allocation of electors. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania, for
instance, he would receive all 20 ECVs. Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electors via a
proportional system: two electors will be awarded to the winner of the popular vote, with one
allocated to the winner of each congressional district.
As most states operate a winner-takes-all system, this allows candidates to win at least 270
ECVs without the need to win the national popular vote. This was true in the case of Donald
Trump’s victory in 2016; while he lost the national vote by 2.1%, he won 304 electoral votes
compared to Hilary Clinton’s 227 by winning a handful of so-called swing states. This could
happen again in 2020 meaning that both candidates must focus on winning the
‘battleground’ states to ensure a victory on 3rd November.
3
The candidates
VS
DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN
Age: 74 Age: 77
Party: Republican Party: Democratic
Donald Trump is hoping to be re- Joe Biden was previously Barack
elected for a second term on 3rd Obama’s vice president from 2008
November. to 2016.
He ran on the campaign slogan ‘Make Prior to this was a US Senator for
America Great Again’ in 2016 and is Delaware for 36 years.
running under the similar slogan ‘Keeping
After enduring a difficult start to the
America Great’ in 2020.
Democratic primary elections earlier this
Throughout his first term in he has year, Biden came from behind to defeat
adopted an anti-immigration and rival nominee Bernie Sanders. Despite
nationalist agenda. Trump’s four years in being a centrist Democrat, he has
office have been dominated by the campaigned on a left-leaning policy
investigation into Russian interference in agenda to appeal to the large voting bloc
the 2016 election, the impeachment that supported Sanders.
process, and his response to the
Biden has promised to raise the national
coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
minimum wage and invest in renewable
Domestically, he has addressed prison energy while creating business
sentencing reforms and cut taxes, but he opportunities to support minority groups.
has failed to repeal the Affordable Care If elected, he has pledged to expand
Act, commonly referred to as Obamacare to ensure that 97% of
‘Obamacare’. Americans have public health insurance.
The president has pursued an ‘America His foreign policy commitments are
First’ platform in foreign policy; he has largely derived from his terms as vice
signed two trade deals, one with China president, and would likely see America
and a revised agreement with Mexico return to multilateralism and engagement
and Canada. He has also ordered a large in international politics. He has
troop withdrawal from Iraq, while rolling underlined his commitment to NATO and
back environmental regulations and reiterated his intention to maintain a
leaving the 2015 Paris Climate Accord. harder line with China.
4
The swing states
Owing to the Electoral College system, some states are more competitive than
others.
Candidates only need to get more votes than their rival to gain all Electoral College votes in
the vast majority of states, so dozens of Electoral College votes can be distributed based on
only tens of thousands of votes. States such as New York and California are staunchly
Democrat and it would take a huge vote swing for the Republicans to even become
competitive in these states. The same is true for Wyoming, Arkansas, and Idaho, where the
Republicans have far greater support, and Democratic presidential candidates rarely
campaign. This in turn creates battleground states. These states garner the most focus on
election night, as they are the locations where the election can be won or lost.
It is notable that for nearly all of the swing
states we highlight below, with the State Winner Margin
exemption of Ohio, Trump won narrowly in
2016 but polling shows Biden holding a Florida Trump +1.2pp
lead. But the 2016 election was also a
lesson in how unreliable polling can be; in Pennsylvania Trump +0.7pp
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, no
major pollsters predicted Trump to win, Ohio Trump +8.13pp
while polling indicated a toss-up in Florida.
All these states have different Michigan Trump +0.23pp
demographics, political priorities, and
historical voting preferences, meaning Wisconsin Trump +0.77pp
candidates and parties must mould their
messaging to target voters in each state.
FLORIDA
Electoral College Votes - 29
2016 Result - TRUMP (49.02), Clinton (47.82%)
Current Polling - BIDEN (49.0%), Trump (46.7%)
Polling Projection - BIDEN +2.3pp
2016 map
Among the battleground states, Florida is arguably the most important, as it
carries 29 electoral votes – the highest among states considered competitive.
The state has voted with the winner in almost every election since 1964, except for 1992
when it voted for George H. W. Bush, and is thought of as a microcosm of the US
population. The margin of victory is historically close, with candidates rarely winning by more
than +3pp. Trump carried the state in 2016, and when Florida was called for Trump, it
became apparent he was heading for the White House. Biden has held a lead over Trump in
Florida polling since May, but owing to the close nature of polling, the state is a toss-up.
Swing voters will be key; Trump retains a core base of support in Florida, and it remains to
be seen if Biden can persuade independent voters to give him their vote. The Democrats
tend to carry most major cities, with rural areas running red. The main demographics both
candidates are fighting for is the middle-class suburban vote, over-75 voters, and the
Hispanic vote – a major community in Florida. Whichever candidate manages to secure
these votes is likely to carry the state.
5
2016 map
PENNSYLVANIA
Electoral College Votes - 20
2016 Result - TRUMP (48.18%), Clinton (47.46%)
Current Polling - BIDEN (50.3%), Trump (44.2%)
Polling Projection - BIDEN +6.1pp
Traditionally a Democrat-leaning state, Pennsylvania flipped to the
Republicans in the 2016 election as its 20 electoral college seats went to
Donald Trump by the barest of margins, with the current president beating
Hilary Clinton by barely 50,000 votes.
As the home state of Joe Biden, the Democrat is polling strongly in the industrial northern
state, but Trump believes he has the vote of the non-Hispanic, non-college educated white
community which makes up 55% of Pennsylvania’s 25 or older population. If turnout is high
among this demographic, it improves Trump’s chances of holding on to the state. The move
towards the Republicans has been steadily occurring while the state’s manufacturing and
mining industries have gradually declined – industries Trump promised to reinvigorate
during his 2016 election campaign. The revival of blue-collar working jobs will be a key
issue in Pennsylvania again in 2020, and Biden’s climate friendly policies are unlikely to
resonate with the key working sectors in Pennsylvania.
MICHIGAN
Electoral College Votes - 16
2016 Result - TRUMP (47.50%), Clinton (47.27%)
Current Polling - BIDEN (50.2%), Trump (42.6%)
Polling Projection - BIDEN +7.6pp
2016 map
Trump won Michigan by just over 10,000 votes in 2016, and if he manages to
keep hold of the state in 2020, it is likely he has managed to successfully
navigate a roadmap to a second term.
Recent polling data does show however, that 60% of non-college educated white voters did
not vote in the last election. As this demographic represents Trump’s base, if he manages
to mobilise this group of voters, the race in Michigan will be far closer than polling currently
indicates. The 2016 election was the first time Michigan has voted Republican since 1988,
with all Democrat candidates since 2000, apart from Hillary Clinton, achieving over 50% of
the vote. Biden will be hoping to energise both Democrat supporters and independent
centrists, something that Clinton failed to achieve. In 2018, the Democrats won 52.33% of
the vote in the elections to the House of Representatives, and Biden will be hoping this bed
of Democrat support will be enough for him to flip the state from the Republicans.
6
2016 map
OHIO
Electoral College Votes - 18
2016 Result - TRUMP (51.69%), Clinton (43.56%)
Current Polling - TRUMP (47.8%), Biden (46.1%)
Polling Projection - TRUMP +1.7pp
Before the 2016 election, Ohio was expected to be a closely-fought state, but
Trump ended up romping home by +8.13pp.
In 2020, polling indicates it is a toss-up between the two candidates, and since 1960 it has
always backed the winning candidate. Although Trump has moved marginally ahead in the
polls, it would take a large swing for the state to vote Democrat; Trump’s victory over Clinton
was the largest margin of victory in Ohio since 1988. Trump has held several rallies in Ohio,
targeting white, working-class areas to maximise voter turnout among his base. In 2016, he
won support from white voters in most demographics, but support among white, educated,
and suburban communities has waned, giving Biden an opportunity to claw back those eight
percentage points. Trump’s popularity among voters in Ohio has been impacted by his
failure to bring jobs back to the state; the closure of a General Motors factory in 2018 has
been used by Biden’s campaign team to portray Trump as incapable of keeping his
promises. Polls do show however, that law and order and the economy are voters’ main
concerns in Ohio, two topics Trump polls well in. If Trump loses Ohio, it is likely Biden will
win the presidency in a landslide.
2016 map
WISCONSIN
Electoral College Votes - 10
2016 Result - TRUMP (47.22%), Clinton (46.45%)
Current Polling - BIDEN (50.6%), Trump (43.5%)
Polling Projection - BIDEN +7.1pp
Like Michigan, Wisconsin was narrowly carried by Trump in 2016, despite
voting Democrat in every election since 1984.
Almost no polls indicated Trump would win in Wisconsin, showing the perils of polling prior to
an election. Trump visited Wisconsin following the protests against police brutality and racial
inequality in August and criticised the protesters for allegedly inciting civil unrest. This was
likely an attempt to appeal to his base, as non-college educated white individuals comprised
64% of non-voters in 2016. Clinton failed to mobilise the African American community in
Milwaukee in 2016, and Biden is hoping that increasing the turnout in the largest city in
Wisconsin will open a path to victory.
7
Primary policy issues
CORONAVIRUS
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to dominate headlines and policy agendas across
the world, the continued push to contain and control the virus is dominating the US election
campaign.
Retrospectively, President Trump is on the defensive about his administration’s reaction to
the outbreak, arguing that although 200,000 Americans have died, this number would have
been in the millions without his swift closure of the border and provision of PPE (Personal
Protective Equipment). Biden has criticised Trump’s response to the pandemic and outlined
a centralised federal strategy for testing, contract tracing and PPE, including increasing
drive-through test sites, working bilaterally with congress to increase federal funding and
restoring World Health Organisation (WHO) membership. Biden has previously committed to
federally mandating the wearing of face masks in public and although Trump has recently
claimed masks are a ‘good thing’, he opposes them as a national requirement. Both
candidates have committed to dedicating significant resources to finding a vaccine, but
Trump is more bullish in his timeframes, saying a vaccine could be distributed before the
New Year through the current administration’s ‘Operation Warp Speed’, while Biden has not
committed to a firm timeframe.
8
THE ECONOMY
Trump has continued in the same vein as his economic stance during his 2016 campaign
and throughout his first term in office, advocating policies that fit his ‘America First’ remit.
He has promised 10 million new jobs within the first 10 months of his second term and one
million new small businesses. Following tax cuts in his first term, the most prominent being
the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in late 2017, which reduced corporation tax and cut the top tax
rate, Trump has promised further tax cuts if re-elected, but has given little detail except that
these cuts would ‘boost take-home pay’. In terms of government spending, Trump has
indicated he will prioritise military and defence spending. Biden’s economic strategy has
been focused on his ‘Build Back Better’ plan, which includes rescinding Trump’s tax cuts and
issuing up to $10,000 worth of student loan forgiveness. Despite distancing himself from the
‘Green New Deal’, Biden has committed to investing $2 trillion in green energy, insisting
investment in green energy manufacturing will produce jobs. Trump’s alternative has
advocated the creation of 400,000 jobs in the fossil fuel industry while opening public land to
oil and gas extraction companies.
79%
of voters surveyed
believe that the
economy is the top
issue of the election
Biden has also pledged to use federal dollars to buy American goods for infrastructure
products and has backed the North American Free Trade Agreement, in an attempt to
appeal to some of the electorate who were attracted to Trump’s ‘America First’ policies in
2016.
HEALTHCARE
Historically, the GOP and the Democrats have had differing views on how to approach the
thorny issue of healthcare in the US, and this election is no different.
Biden has stated his support for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the flagship healthcare
achievement of President Obama’s administration, widely known as Obamacare. The aim of
the policy was to provide affordable healthcare to all Americans, and Biden has said he will
reinstate and expand the program to cover 97% of citizens. Trump has been a vocal critic of
the ACA and despite falling short of fully repealing the program, as promised during his 2016
campaign, he has repealed many aspects of the ACA. Trump has previously stated he will
offer an alternative to the ACA but has so far failed to do so; it is likely that providing a viable
alternative will be high on his policy agenda for any second term. Biden has also stated he
will explore an option to allow citizens to opt into a public health insurance program like
Medicare and reduce the Medicare eligibility age to 60. Both candidates have committed to
allowing greater imports of cheaper medical drugs.
9LAW & ORDER
The protests following the killing of George Floyd in May focused public interest on the
subsequent actions of the police, including allegations of brutality, and ensured that law,
order and criminal justice have become key campaign issues for both candidates.
Trump has attempted to make law and order the focal point of his campaign, to paint Biden
and the Democrats as weak on criminality. Trump staunchly supported the police throughout
the unrest in June but has suggested launching a database to trace police abuses and
increase accountability. Both Trump and Biden do not support defunding the police, though
Biden has put forward a policy of spending $300 million on community policing initiatives.
Biden also wants to reform qualified immunity, which protects police officers from lawsuits;
Trump has dismissed the idea of reforming or removing the initiative. Trump has proposed
lowering mandatory minimum prison sentences to relieve pressure on the prison system,
while Biden has proposed scrapping mandatory minimum sentences altogether. Trump
continues to support the death penalty, while Biden has said he would eliminate the death
penalty if elected.
10Unique issues
RACE & INEQUALITY
The killing of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis in May 2020 caused a wave of
global protests and revealed the lack of progress on improving race relations in the United
States. From 26th May to 22nd August, independent observers recorded over 7,750 protests
linked to the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement across 2,240 locations, affecting every US
state. George Floyd’s death sparked nationwide protests, while other victims of police
brutality and violence have also attracted large-scale demonstrations. Although the number
of BLM-linked protests has gradually declined since their peak in June, race and inequality
remains one of the election’s main issues. Polls indicate that 52% of voters view it as a ‘very
important’ issue to their vote in this election.
The two candidates differ widely on race and inequality. Donald Trump has often criticised
the BLM movement for inciting violent protests, although these claims are unsubstantiated.
He has defended the police and voiced his support for expanding police funding to contain
the protests. His term in office has, however, seen legislative reforms that addressed prison
sentencing problems that disproportionately affected the black community. Biden’s voting
record and comments on the campaign have come under criticism, but he has openly
supported the BLM movement even though he does not advocate defunding the police.
FOREIGN INTERFERANCE
Throughout the 2016 campaign, Russia and, to a lesser extent China, were accused of
interfering in the presidential election. Both used a wide range of tools at their disposal to
influence the outcome of the election. From hacking into the Clinton campaign’s emails and
leaking them to WikiLeaks, to using social media accounts to organise and stage rallies in
swing states, foreign agents were successfully able to undermine the election. According to
American intelligence agencies, this success has encouraged Russia and China to try
similar tactics in this year’s election, and has also inspired Iran to act in a similar vein to
further its geopolitical agenda.
The Kremlin’s intentions in 2020 are to discredit Joe Biden’s candidacy and the anti-Russia
establishment in Washington and to boost the Trump campaign’s profile. The Russian
Internet Research Agency (IRA), a private company with links to Russian intelligence
agencies, has been establishing fake websites and social media accounts for this purpose.
One such example is an IRA-run website which is sowing doubt among the party’s left-
leaning supporters by discrediting Biden’s record. The Russian state has also used Kremlin-
linked actors to undermine Biden’s campaign. Andrii Derkach, a pro-Russian Ukrainian
politician, has been circulating claims of corruption in the Biden family, particularly his son,
Hunter, over their dealings in Ukraine.
Although China’s 2016 interference campaign paled in comparison to Russia’s, it has
significantly expanded its programme ahead of November and has taken the most active
role among foreign powers seeking to interfere. Trump’s unpredictable nature and the
deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing have forced China to back a Biden
victory.
11Although both candidates have taken a harder stance on China, Biden is seen by Beijing as
a more cooperative option, especially considering Trump’s critical rhetoric over China’s
handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. American intelligence officials have noted multiple
instances where Chinese hackers have tried to knock Trump’s campaign and business
websites offline.
The White House’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran has stoked tensions
between the two nations. Trump’s re-election would likely result in a continuation of US
pressure on Iran, such as sanctions, to foment regime change, but a Biden administration
would not necessarily alleviate that pressure. Tehran is instead seeking to undermine
American democratic institutions to divide the country ahead of the election.
Agents, whether backed by Moscow,
Beijing, or Tehran, use a similar set of
cyber tools to interfere with elections, but
their primary objective is not necessarily
meant to sway the vote toward one side or
the other. Instead, interference is designed
to make supporters of the losing side
question the validity of the result by
believing that foreign powers have
sabotaged the vote. Although IRA-linked
social media accounts uploaded content
that was shared more than 120 million
times on Facebook, more than 1,000
YouTube videos, and approximately two
million tweets in 2016, the majority of their content had little to do with either candidate but
instead stoked division in American society. Even if foreign powers do not get the result they
wanted, what will matter is whether voters believe that the likes of Russia and China have
interfered in this year’s election, increasing the transitional risks if either candidate is
victorious.
TRANSITIONAL RISKS
The transition of power has become one of the pre-eminent issues in this year’s election
owing to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, a transition of power would be in
effect until the new president is inaugurated on 20th January – that is if the incumbent loses
the election. During this period, the incumbent would continue to govern and exercise
executive power, while the soon-to-be president would use their time to select and approve
officials for high-level jobs for their administration. The result of this year’s election is highly
likely to be unknown for weeks after 3rd November due to the pandemic, which could cause
an unprecedented constitutional crisis.
The outbreak of COVID-19 has altered the voting process of the 2020 presidential election.
In efforts to mitigate the risk of transmission, state officials throughout the country have
encouraged Americans to use mail-in or early in-person voting. This has resulted in a record-
breaking number of citizens having already voted in this year’s election. Around 58 million
people had already voted by 26th October, and a total of 80 million postal votes are
expected to be cast – more than double the number in 2016. This has, however, raised
concerns over the timing and validity of the results. Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of
mail-in voting, describing it as fraudulent, despite little evidence supporting this view.
12The Heritage Foundation’s Electoral Fraud Database has recorded only 1,298 instances of
proven fraud since 1981; a relatively low figure given the hundreds of millions of votes cast
since that year.
Nonetheless, Trump has frequently told supporters that the only way that the Democrats can
win the election is through vote-rigging and he has refused to commit to a peaceful transition
of power. Both candidates have been unwilling to accept the preliminary result on 3rd
November with Biden insisting that every vote must be counted, even if it takes weeks.
There are also question marks over the performance of the US Postal Service, whose
responsibility is to deliver postal votes, but is currently undergoing spending cuts which have
led to concerns whether the service can cope with the volume of postal votes. This could
lead to a delay of several weeks until the winner is confirmed.
The sheer number of postal votes is likely to have a considerable effect on the result of the
election. Owing to the federal system, each state can decide its voting regulations and, more
importantly, when they begin to count the votes. This is especially significant for the all-
important swing states. Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are some of the states that
begin to count early votes before 3rd November, while Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,
and Ohio only begin their counting on election day. Officials in the latter have confirmed that
their results should not be expected on 3rd November. Such differences could lead to a
controversial scenario and increase the possibility of unrest. For instance, if Arizona and
Florida are divided between the two candidates, it may lead to an instance whereby Donald
Trump has a significant lead in Pennsylvania and Ohio after the totals from in-person votes,
a method more favoured by Republican voters, are announced. As postal votes are counted,
a process preferred by Democratic supporters, this lead could disappear in the days
following the election. This may result in one candidate declaring victory before the full count
is finalised, or it could lead to a protracted post-election struggle in the courts with either
candidate questioning the validity of the results, thereby causing an unprecedented
constitutional crisis.
Owing to the likelihood of legal challenges that could delay the election, and the
consequential risk of civil unrest, there are a few key dates to track:
13Polling
Polling is conducted by multiple research organisations on a national, state
and district level.
There is no standardised methodology for opinion polling, with different companies using
subtly different samples and adjustments in an attempt to accurately reflect the state of the
race.
The reliability of polling has been repeatedly questioned. Ever since Trump’s victory in 2016,
which next to no pollsters predicted, the viability and reliability of pre-election polls have
been subjected to scrutiny. Despite leading by as many as +7 percentage points fewer than
3 weeks before the election, Hillary Clinton’s polling lead dipped as the election neared.
Clinton still maintained a lead of +2 to +3 percentage points on the day of the election.
Pollsters claimed afterwards that this put Trump within a normal polling error of Clinton,
despite none of the major companies predicting a Trump victory.
In the 2020 campaign, the polls have been more consistent. Biden has consistently been up
by +5 to +7 percentage points on Trump nationally, and on 13th October this lead had
extended to +10. This would point to a Biden victory, and is closer to a ‘normal polling error’
from a Biden landslide than a Trump victory. But polling remains an inexact science for
numerous reasons. For one, the 2016 election proved that national-level polling does not
account for the Electoral College system, regardless of the state-level polling. In the popular
vote, Clinton beat Trump by +2.09%, a percentage consistent with her pre-election polling.
But, owing to close results in numerous states, Trump won 307 electoral seats compared to
227 for Clinton. Both national and state-level polling failed to account for the nuances of
voters, demographics and localised issues in battleground states such as Michigan,
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
14Pollsters have made modification to their models. For instance, many now weight by
education level, as in 2016 many samples were too heavily weighted towards college-
educated voters, who tend to favour the Democrats. This does not account for all the issues
which were highlighted following the 2016 election, such as the alleged ‘shy Trump’ voter
phenomenon. This relates to a proportion of voters who were unwilling to say they were
planning on supporting Trump prior to voting, under-representing the Trump vote. Another
credible theory is that of the ‘late-breakers’, the 13%-15% of voters in key states which were
undecided before election day, the majority went for Trump.
Biden has held a comfortable lead in both national polls and vital swing states throughout the
campaign, but this in no way guarantees he will win the election. With three weeks to go,
Biden leads by less than 5 percentage points in the key states of Ohio, North Carolina and
Florida. Even a small dip in his popularity in these states greatly increases Trump’s chances
of winning re-election, and it was in these states where polling underestimated Trump’s
support in 2016. It would appear there are fewer ‘late-breakers’ in this election, as according
to the latest Marquette poll, Biden is supported by 46% of likely voters and Trump has the
support of 41%. With Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen accounting for another 4% of the
votes, this leaves undecided voters, or those who vote for neither candidate at only 9%.
15Scenarios
Joe Biden is projected to win the key swing states of Arizona, Florida,
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania on election day, claiming 334 electors
to Donald Trump’s 204 after the final count is finished. The Democratic Party
gains a majority in both the House and the Senate on the back of Biden’s
OUR MOST victory. A small number of low-level protests occur in urban centres, such as
LIKELY Portland and New York City, in the immediate aftermath as Trump supporters
SCENARIO: claim that the election was rigged. Donald Trump initially concedes the
election due to Biden’s margin of victory and due to the lack of support from
leading Republicans, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. A
peaceful but bumpy transition of power takes place, although Trump remains
highly critical of the election in interviews and on social media. Joe Biden is
inaugurated as president on 20th January.
Donald Trump claims a narrow victory in the Electoral College in the election.
Victories in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and a surprise win in
Nevada ensures that Trump secures 270 Electoral College votes despite
losing the popular vote. The Republicans win a significant majority in the
Senate, but only secure a slim majority in the House. Joe Biden wins 268
electors but does not initially concede the election as the counting continues
OUR for several days. Large-scale pro-Democratic protests occur daily in the
SECONDARY immediate aftermath of the election throughout the country causing moderate
SCENARIO: travel and operational disruption. However, they remain largely peaceful with
only a handful of low-level clashes reported. Biden concedes victory as
several Democratic legal challenges are dismissed by the courts. Sporadic
pro-Democratic protests occur weekly through to Trump’s inauguration.
Trump’s re-election further polarises American politics as Democrats become
disillusioned with the electoral system following Trump’s victory despite losing
the popular vote.
Donald Trump claims an early victory after in-person votes are announced in
the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio, but
following the count of mail-in votes, Joe Biden announces his victory. Large-
scale protests from both sides occur with each claiming victory. Violent
clashes follow in several urban centres as the security forces struggle to
maintain law and order – National Guard units are deployed in numerous cities
OUR to contain the protests. A protracted legal battle follows as Trump’s campaign
claims the results are fraudulent. The legal disputes continue for weeks with
ALTERNATIVE some states being unable to select their electors, thereby forcing the House of
SCENARIO: Representatives to elect the President. Violent protests and clashes run on for
several weeks as either candidate is unwilling to back down, causing severe
operational disruption as curfews are implemented to stifle civil unrest. Owing
to a Democratic majority in the House, Biden is elected as president. American
society becomes more polarised and a heavy security presence is visible
throughout the country’s urban centres in the months leading to Joe Biden’s
inauguration.
16Advice
Bypass all protests owing to the incidental risk of violence
Avoid all protests as a standard security precaution. Even gatherings that appear
peaceful can escalate into violence quickly with little notice, and employees should
avoid attendance to mitigate this risk. There is still a credible risk of protests escalating
locally if controversial incidents occur; precedent indicates anti-racism protests can
resurface with incidents of unrest rapidly.
Monitor developments for details of upcoming protests
Monitor local and social media outlets for details of upcoming protests. Local news
outlets will also frequently report on planned protests, and there are dedicated online
sources that business travellers can monitor to remain aware of upcoming
demonstrations. The Healix Sentinel Travel Oracle app will feature alerts in the event of
a violent escalation.
Plan contingency routes as preferred routes may be blocked
Plan routes to avoid affected areas. If caught in a congested crowd, employees should
leave the area and return to an unaffected location. Employees should try and avoid the
security force lines where possible, as this is likely to be the focus of any disturbance.
Bypass all know sites of protest activity and flashpoint locations
Avoid all known sites of protest activity and immediately leave the area if crowds being
to gather; although recent protests have remained largely peaceful, there is still an on-
going risk of incidental violence. Police precincts and government buildings are often
locations that attract protesters and should by bypassed.
17How can Healix assist?
Healix can assist your company in building precautionary training and policy initiatives to
help your employees understand the current risks and subsequent mitigation methods. We
ensure that we establish potential areas of risk within your business and provide appropriate
and dedicated services that reduce longer-term costs. Our risk professionals are chosen for
their expertise, and can be embedded in your team, while retaining peer-to-peer access to
the Healix team of intelligence analysts, operations coordinators and managers.
“We are an international We recommend:
company with significant Customised Event Monitoring
exposure in the US and we
require STRATEGIC level Event Monitoring involves embedding a dedicated
support to manage the intelligence and research expert to provide daily briefings
customised to the needs of your company. Our analyst
transition and to ensure our will monitor for real-time political, security and operational
competitive advantage is updates, as well as providing long-term strategic analysis.
maintained” This analysis will include forecasting the potential
outcomes of the election and the possibility of civil unrest.
The analyst can also scan for media coverage associated
with your organisation and conduct sentiment analysis.
“We are an international We recommend:
company operating in Healix Sentinel Protect Subscription
locations with a high degree
of vulnerability in the event of Through your Healix Sentinel Protect subscription you will
significant political change. be granted 24/7/365 access to our risk intelligence team
for complimentary requests for analysis and forecasting.
We require prompt ad hoc Your query will be passed to the regional experts and,
INSIGHTS into political risk within 24 hours, you will receive a concise and
factors to inform our consolidated assessment that is bespoke to the specific
corporate governance and issue of concern.
help us stay one step ahead
of developments”
FIND OUT MORE
To find out more about how Healix could help you, please contact us via email at
enquiries@healix.com or call us on +44 (0) 20 8481 7720.
www.healix.com
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