Vaccine drive picks up; cases at a 5-month low - JM Financial
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17 Aug 2021
Vaccine drive picks up; cases at a 5-month low
Aishwarya Sonker
aishwarya.sonker@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303351
Dhananjay Sinha
dhananjay.sinha@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303030
Harshita Kain
harshita.kain@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66301851
Arshad Perwez
arshad.perwez@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303080Summary: 66th edition of the COVID-19 files
o The 7-day moving avg. for daily cases stood lower at 36k vs. 39k last week; cases fall to a 5-month low
o Peaking in trajectory visible significantly in Kerala and some north eastern states, but uptick seen in HP
o The 7-day MA in active cases declined to 0.38mn, with 68% cases in KER (47%), MH (18%) and Karnataka (6%) itself
o Daily recoveries-to-daily ratio has risen near 108%
o The all-India positivity rate 7DMA fell to 2.1% from 2.4% last week; and the number of districts with a positivity rate >10% fell WoW to 40
o Further, share of higher GSDP states in incremental infections remained at all time low of 27%
COVID-19 o Daily vaccine doses administered touched a new record high of 8.9mn on 17 Aug’21 (with a dip on the day before) and 7D moving avg. doses administered
Situation also higher at 5.7mn last week vs. 5.1mn in the week before that
o According to our model, India could have achieved herd immunity by Sep-Oct if the daily vaccine doses administered inches rose to 6-7mn. However, two
aspects challenge the importance of this- I) the herd immunity argument has been questioned in countries such as US, UK, Spain, France where despite
vaccination exceeding 60% of their population, uptick in COVID-19 cases has been witnessed, and ii) our estimates suggest inadequate vaccine supply to
clock 6-7mn doses per day in Aug and Sep (current daily average of 5.5mn in Aug). In fact, vaccine supply may be enough to vaccinate only 80% of adults by
Dec-21 vs. govt. target of 100%. So far 31% of the Indian population has been vaccinated with the 1st dose
o Global cases rose further by 2.2% this week. We note the number of days to hit additional 10mn cases is lower at c.18 days vs. 23 days before that
o 2-year CAGR for economic indicators remained robust till mid-Aug’21: E-way bills, vehicle registrations, railway freight, power consumption. However, the 2-
year CAGR could be seen slowing for property registrations in Maharashtra and airline passengers were lower WoW
o Google mobility trends for recreation and workplace improved to Feb’21/Dec’20 level
o Overall Jul’21 had witnessed an uptick in 2-year CAGR for most economic indicators- e-way bills, railway freight, power consumption
o Rural remains steady; improving rainfall to sustain momentum in agriculture
2-year CAGR Current
activity
Economic Indicator Till 17-
Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20 levels
Aug-21 same as..
indicators
Property registration in Maharashtra 2.4% 10.4% 12.8% -27.0% -4.9% -12.6% -15.0% -49.7% -91.6% Sep-20
E-way bills 11.3% 10.9% 4.9% -14.2% 5.8% 4.6% -3.6% -17.3% -44.5% Dec-20
Railway freight 6.9% 4.7% 2.3% 2.5% 4.0% -2.9% -6.1% -15.0% -21.8% Oct-20
Power consumption 8.0% 3.7% -3.2% -4.4% 3.2% NA NA NA NA
Vehicle Registrations -11.1% -6.9% -15.3% -45.8% -17.4% -21.7% -27.0% -68.2% -55.6% Aug-20
Google Mobility for recreation (Change from Jan-Feb’20* -19.0% -26.0% -42.0% -62.0% -37.0% -60.0% -60.0% -76.0% -83.0% Feb-21
Google Mobility for workplaces (Change from Jan-Feb’20)* -14.0% -21.0% -31.0% -48.0% -28.0% -32.0% -30.0% -44.0% -61.0% Dec-20
2India’s COVID-19 tally 2nd largest in the world; share in
daily global cases dips to 6%
India share of Cases 7DMA India Share of Deaths 7DMA
India share in recoveries 7DMA
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 12%
20% 6%
10%
0% 5%
19-Dec-20
21-Aug-20
17-Feb-21
17-Jul-21
16-Aug-21
22-Jun-20
18-Apr-21
17-Jun-21
23-May-20
22-Jul-20
19-Mar-21
18-May-21
20-Sep-20
20-Oct-20
19-Nov-20
18-Jan-21
Source: Worldometer, As on 17 Aug’21
World : Total cases- 208.7mn World: Total deaths- 4.4mn World: Total recovered- 187.1mn
USA USA USA
18% 14% 16%
India
10%
Others Others India
India
50% Others 51% 17%
16%
56% Brazil
13%
Brazil Russia Brazil
France France
Russia 10% 4% France 10%
3% Russia
3% 3%
3% 3%
3Delta variant driving uptick in global cases; India cases
India vs. Rest of World averaged at c.36k last week
Infections can be seen rising again globally led by the Daily cases growth (CDGR*) in India at 0.1%, akin to last
delta variant; India clocking around 36k cases daily week
Italy France Spain
2 we e k s
Iran Russia US - RHS Until 3 da ys a fte r S ince Pa s t one
a fte r the
60000 India - RHS Brazil - RHS UK - RHS 450000 Lock down the lock down lock down we e k
lock down
400000 China* 44% 34% 29% 1% 0.1%
50000
350000 Italy 24% 19% 16% 1% 0.1%
40000 300000 France 16% 19% 15% 1% 0.3%
250000 Spain 22% 30% 21% 1% 0.2%
30000 Iran 47% 14% 8% 1% 0.9%
200000
India 26% 14% 17% 2% 0.1%
20000 150000
Russia 12% 13% 18% 2% 0.3%
100000 UK 17% 19% 16% 1% 0.5%
10000
50000 Brazil 0.1%
0 0 US 0.3%
Day 1
Day 116
Day 139
Day 162
Day 185
Day 208
Day 231
Day 254
Day 277
Day 300
Day 323
Day 346
Day 369
Day 392
Day 415
Day 438
Day 461
Day 484
Day 507
Day 530
Day 553
Day 24
Day 47
Day 70
Day 93
A s on 16-A ug-21; * Hube i lock down
Source WHO as on 16 Aug’21 JM Financial, Note, Cases in China peaked in early Feb 2020 (Day 15-Day 25, Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 16 Aug’21, *CDGR: Compounded daily growth rate
we have not plotted as it stands as an outlier)- registered 89 average daily cases last week vs. 74 in the
week before that, *7 Day Moving Average
4Doubling rate can be seen falling for the World; New
Global Cases hospitalizations see an uptick in US (82k last week)
Doubling Rate
Number of days to add fresh 10mn cases globally falling World India Brazil
again Spain Russia Iran
US- RHS France- RHS UK- RHS
900 3000
Date Global cases (mn) No. of days 800 2500
700
25-06-2020 10 155 600 2000
08-08-2020 20 44 500 1500
400
15-09-2020 30 38 300 1000
17-10-2020 40 32 200 500
100
07-11-2020 50 21 0 0
16-03-2020
16-05-2020
16-08-2021
16-04-2020
16-06-2020
16-07-2020
16-08-2020
16-09-2020
16-10-2020
16-11-2020
16-12-2020
16-01-2021
16-02-2021
16-03-2021
16-04-2021
16-05-2021
16-06-2021
16-07-2021
24-11-2020 60 17
10-12-2020 70 16
25-12-2020 80 15
09-01-2021 90 15
25-01-2021 100 16
16-02-2021 110 22 New Hospitalization per mn
13-03-2021 120 25 700 Italy Spain US UK France
01-04-2021 130 19 600
16-04-2021 140 15 500
28-04-2021 150 12 400
11-05-2021 160 13 300
29-05-2021 170 18
200
23-06-2021 180 25
100
16-07-2021 190 23
0
03-08-2021 200 18
15-02-2020
15-03-2020
15-04-2020
15-05-2020
15-06-2020
15-07-2020
15-08-2020
15-09-2020
15-10-2020
15-11-2020
15-12-2020
15-01-2021
15-02-2021
15-03-2021
15-04-2021
15-05-2021
15-06-2021
15-07-2021
15-08-2021
Source: CEIC, JM Financial,
5India’s daily recovery rate near 108%; daily deaths
India vs. Rest of World remained low
Daily recoveries-to-daily ratio has risen near 108% vs. Daily deaths averaged near 500 last week while an
107% last week uptick can be seen in US/Iran
Daily Cases 7DMA Daily Recoveries 7DMA
China Italy Spain Iran US
Daily Recovery Rate - RHS
India Russia Brazil UK France
450000 200% 4500
400000 180% 4000
350000 160% 3500
300000 140%
120% 3000
250000
100% 2500
200000 80%
150000 60% 2000
100000 40% 1500
50000 20% 1000
0 0%
500
17-06-2020
17-07-2021
17-03-2020
17-04-2020
17-05-2020
17-07-2020
17-08-2020
17-09-2020
17-10-2020
17-11-2020
17-12-2020
17-01-2021
17-02-2021
17-03-2021
17-04-2021
17-05-2021
17-06-2021
17-08-2021
0
Day 120
Day 239
Day 375
Day 494
Day 103
Day 137
Day 154
Day 171
Day 188
Day 205
Day 222
Day 256
Day 273
Day 290
Day 307
Day 324
Day 341
Day 358
Day 392
Day 409
Day 426
Day 443
Day 460
Day 477
Day 511
Day 528
Day 18
Day 35
Day 52
Day 69
Day 86
Day 1
Source WHO, JM Financial, As on 17-Aug-21 Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 16 Aug’21
6All-India testing growth higher WoW; Number of districts with
India: State-wise
positivity rate >10% decline
25% All-India Positivity Rate (7DMA)
20%
15%
All-India testing higher by 11.0% last week after falling by
3.5% in the week before that 10%
5%
2500000 Total Tests done (7 Day Moving Average)- RHS
0%
2000000
16-02-2021
16-06-2021
16-07-2021
16-06-2020
16-07-2020
16-08-2020
16-09-2020
16-10-2020
16-11-2020
16-12-2020
16-01-2021
16-03-2021
16-04-2021
16-05-2021
16-08-2021
1500000
1000000
Number of districts - weekly district-wise positivity rates >= 10%
500000
500 431
450 394
0 400 358333
313
16-02-2021
16-06-2021
16-07-2021
16-06-2020
16-07-2020
16-08-2020
16-09-2020
16-10-2020
16-11-2020
16-12-2020
16-01-2021
16-03-2021
16-04-2021
16-05-2021
16-08-2021
350
300 254
250 215
185165
200
150 114
76 84 65 56
100 45 56 45 45 40
50
Source: CEIC Ministry of Health , JM Financial, As on 16 Aug’21 0
28 May - 3 Jun
27 Jul- 2 Aug'21
3-9 Aug'21
22-28 Jun'21
18-24 May'21
15-21 Jun'21
13-19 Jul'21
20-26 Jul'21
12-18 May'21
14-20 May'21
17-23 May'21
19-25 May'21
24-30 May'21
6-12 Jul'21
10-16 Aug'21
8-14 Jun'21
1-7 Jun'21
3-9 Jun'21
1-7 Jul'21
7India: State-wise 7-day moving avg. cases can be seen peaking in Kerala
Cases remain low in other lesser affected states but a
Total cases in Kerala can be seen peaking.. slight uptick can be seen in HP..
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
Delhi Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Gujarat Madhya Pradesh
50000 70000
20000 18000
Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Rajasthan Goa
45000 Maharashtra - RHS 18000 Haryana HP 16000
60000 Uttarakhand Punjab
40000 16000
Chhattisgarh - RHS 14000
35000 50000 14000
12000
30000 12000
40000 10000
25000 10000
30000 8000
20000 8000
6000
15000 20000 6000
10000 4000 4000
10000
5000 2000 2000
0 0 0 0
02-Feb-21
16-Feb-21
04-Aug-20
18-Aug-20
08-Dec-20
22-Dec-20
02-Mar-21
16-Mar-21
30-Mar-21
03-Aug-21
17-Aug-21
12-May-20
26-May-20
09-Jun-20
23-Jun-20
13-Apr-21
27-Apr-21
11-May-21
25-May-21
08-Jun-21
22-Jun-21
07-Jul-20
21-Jul-20
01-Sep-20
15-Sep-20
29-Sep-20
13-Oct-20
27-Oct-20
10-Nov-20
24-Nov-20
06-Jul-21
20-Jul-21
05-Jan-21
19-Jan-21
02-Feb-21
16-Feb-21
04-Aug-20
18-Aug-20
08-Dec-20
22-Dec-20
03-Aug-21
17-Aug-21
09-Jun-20
23-Jun-20
13-Apr-21
27-Apr-21
08-Jun-21
22-Jun-21
12-May-20
26-May-20
07-Jul-20
21-Jul-20
02-Mar-21
16-Mar-21
30-Mar-21
01-Sep-20
15-Sep-20
29-Sep-20
11-May-21
25-May-21
06-Jul-21
20-Jul-21
13-Oct-20
27-Oct-20
10-Nov-20
24-Nov-20
05-Jan-21
19-Jan-21
Source: CEIC- As on 17-Aug-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average Source: CEIC- As on 17-Aug-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average
8India’s active cases average lower WoW at 0.38mn;
India: State-wise HP sees a spike in active cases…
Kerala leads with the highest active cases but the growth …total active cases witness negative WoW growth due to
in active cases has slowed down slowing growth in Kar and some north eastern states
Kerala Maharashtra Karnataka State Total Active
Cases % Share CDGR
Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh All India - RHS
All India 3,69,846 -1%
Kerala 1,72,765 47% 0%
8,00,000 4000000 Maharashtra 65,922 18% -1%
7,00,000 3500000 Karnataka 22,074 6% -1%
6,00,000 3000000
Tamil Nadu 20,370 6% 0%
Andhra Pradesh 17,218 5% -2%
5,00,000 2500000 West Bengal 9,832 3% -1%
4,00,000 2000000 Mizoram 9,510 3% -4%
Odisha 9,073 2% -1%
3,00,000 1500000
Assam 9,054 2% -3%
2,00,000 1000000 Telangana 7,093 2% -2%
1,00,000 500000 Manipur 6,270 2% -2%
Meghalaya 3,761 1% -3%
0 0
Himachal Pradesh 2,695 1% 4%
02-06-2020
23-06-2020
14-07-2020
04-08-2020
25-08-2020
15-09-2020
06-10-2020
27-10-2020
17-11-2020
08-12-2020
29-12-2020
19-01-2021
09-02-2021
02-03-2021
23-03-2021
13-04-2021
04-05-2021
25-05-2021
15-06-2021
06-07-2021
27-07-2021
17-08-2021
Sikkim 2,068 1% -4%
Arunachal Pradesh 1,836 0% -5%
Tripura 1,497 0% -4%
Others 8,808 2% -2%
Source: CEIC- As on 17-Aug-21, JM Financial, Source: CEIC- As on 17-Aug-21, JM Financial, *CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
9Top 6 GSDP states share in incremental infections
India: State-wise
remains low
Share of incremental infections of higher GSDP states (top
6) steady at 27%- lowest since beginning of pandemic
Top 20 districts constitute c.33% of total cases vs. Share of top 6 states (by GDP: 58% share: MH, TN, UP, KAR, GUJ, WB)in
incremental infections
39% by end of Aug’20 80% Share of other states: 7DMA
70%
State Test % Total 1 week 60%
District State 50%
per lakh Cases CDGR
40%
Delhi Delhi 1,24,763 4% 0.00%
30%
Bengaluru Urban Karnataka 62,350 4% 0.03%
20%
Pune Maharashtra 41,843 3% 0.09%
10%
Mumbai Maharashtra 41,843 2% 0.04%
0%
Thane Maharashtra 41,843 2% 0.04%
17-02-2021
17-05-2021
17-08-2021
17-03-2020
17-04-2020
17-05-2020
17-06-2020
17-07-2020
17-08-2020
17-09-2020
17-10-2020
17-11-2020
17-12-2020
17-01-2021
17-03-2021
17-04-2021
17-06-2021
17-07-2021
Chennai Tamil Nadu 52,788 2% 0.04%
Nagpur Maharashtra 41,843 2% 0.00%
Malappuram Kerala 84,115 1% 0.76%
Ernakulam Kerala 84,115 1% 0.61%
Nashik Maharashtra 41,843 1% 0.02%
Decline in new Covid-19 infections coming from Rural
Kozhikode Kerala 84,115 1% 0.69%
Thrissur Kerala 84,115 1% 0.76%
Thiruvananthapuram Kerala 84,115 1% 0.33% Urban Semi-Urban Rural
North 24 Parganas West Bengal 16,937 1% 0.03% 60% 53% 53%
Kolkata West Bengal 16,937 1% 0.02% 50% 47%
Ahmednagar Maharashtra 41,843 1% 0.27%
40% 32%
Kollam Kerala 84,115 1% 0.54% 40%
30% 34%
East Godavari Andhra Pradesh 49,230 1% 0.11%
20%
Palakkad Kerala 84,115 1% 0.81% 6%
10% 19%
Alappuzha Kerala 84,115 1% 0.53% 15%
0%
5-Jul'21
03-Aug-21
11Apr'21
18Apr'21
25Apr'21
2May'21
9May'21
6-Jun'21
10-Aug-21
13-Jun'21
20-Jun'21
28-Jun'21
13-Jul'21
20-Jul'21
27-Jul'21
16May'21
23May'21
30May'21
Source Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial; Covid19India.org- As on 17-Aug-21,
CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
10Vaccines Key takeaways from ICMR’s 4th Sero Survey
Nearly 2/3rd of the Indian population has Covid-19 antibodies as per ICMR
• Overall, 67.6% of India's population above 6 years was found to have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the national sero survey conducted in Jun-
Jul’21. The last sero survey was concluded in Dec’20-Jan’21 when the total sero positivity stood at 21.4%
• Among those who have not received any vaccine, the seroprevalence was 62.3%, while those with one dose of the jab, it was 81%. In those who
received both the doses, it was 89.8%
• Sero positivity as per age groups: 6-9 years: 57.2%, 10-17 years: 61.6%, 18-44 years: 66.7%, 45-60 years: 77.6%
• There was no difference in seroprevalence in men and women and rural and urban areas
• The survey reveals that a third of the population, roughly 400mn people, have no anti-bodies. About 62.2% have not been vaccinated
• 85% of surveyed healthcare workers had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2; one-tenth of HCWs still unvaccinated
• This was the first time that children above six years were included the sero prevalence study.
• The survey was conducted amongst 28975 people, that include 7252 healthcare workers across 70 districts and 21 states. These were the same
districts where the first three rounds of the serosurvey were conducted
• ICMR has warned that the national serosurvey is no substitute for local (state/districts) variations. State heterogeneity indicates possibility of
future waves of infections. Herd immunity will depend on seropositivty numbers at the local level.
Source: News Reports, (TOI) JM Financial, 11Vaccines: Global Vaccination drive in key nations progressing well…
Global vaccines outpacing global virus UK, France, Spain, Chile, Canada, UAE lead in inoculating
maximum % of their population so far
% of population given 1+ dose % population fully vaccinated
Global vaccines administered (mn) Global virus cases (mn) Mainland China 44 56
India 31 9
5000 4721 EU 63 55
4500 U.S. 60 51
4000 Brazil 57 24
Japan 50 37
3500 Germany 63 57
3000 U.K. 71 61
Turkey 53 40
2500
Indonesia 20 11
2000 France 71 60
1500 Mexico 43 23
Italy 67 59
1000
207 Russia 28 22
500 Spain 75 64
0 Canada 72 63
17 6
13-06-2021
Pakistan
31-05-2020
21-06-2020
12-07-2020
02-08-2020
23-08-2020
13-09-2020
04-10-2020
25-10-2020
15-11-2020
06-12-2020
27-12-2020
17-01-2021
07-02-2021
28-02-2021
21-03-2021
11-04-2021
02-05-2021
23-05-2021
04-07-2021
25-07-2021
15-08-2021
Argentina 59 23
Poland 50 48
Saudi Arabia 61 33
South Korea 43 19
Colombia 41 27
Malaysia 52 33
Chile 74 68
Global vaccine latest news UAE 76 67
The WHO has called for a moratorium on COVID-19 vaccine boosters until at least the Sri Lanka 54 21
end of Sep’21 to enable at least 10% of the population of every country to get Iran 16 4
Peru 28 21
vaccinated Australia 39 21
Portugal 75 64
Israel 65 60
Source: CEIC, JM Financial, KFGO, Guardian Source: Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker- As on 17-Aug-21, Sorted based on total doses, 74% have received atleast
the 1st dose in UAE
12Per day inoculation average at 5.7mn last week vs. 5.1mn
India: Vaccine
in the week before that
A total of 555mn doses were administered in India till
Guj, Ker, Kar, Del leading in terms of the vaccination
17-Aug; Per day inoculation average at 5.7 last week vs.
process (as a % of population)
5.1mn in the week before that
% of population given
State/UT Total Doses 1st dose 2nd dose
7.0 Number of people vaccinated daily (mn, 7DMA) Uttar Pradesh 598,06,936 22% 4%
6.0 Maharashtra 500,55,493 30% 11%
Gujarat 407,66,486 46% 15%
5.0 Madhya Pradesh 384,32,647 38% 7%
4.0 Rajasthan 380,86,465 37% 12%
Karnataka 350,98,248 41% 12%
3.0 West Bengal 346,01,234 25% 10%
Bihar 306,46,969 21% 4%
2.0
Tamil Nadu 271,25,146 29% 7%
1.0 Andhra Pradesh 253,51,368 36% 13%
Kerala 246,23,953 51% 19%
0.0 Odisha 197,69,269 35% 10%
16-03-2021
18-05-2021
26-01-2021
02-02-2021
09-02-2021
16-02-2021
23-02-2021
02-03-2021
09-03-2021
23-03-2021
30-03-2021
06-04-2021
13-04-2021
20-04-2021
27-04-2021
04-05-2021
11-05-2021
25-05-2021
01-06-2021
08-06-2021
15-06-2021
22-06-2021
29-06-2021
06-07-2021
13-07-2021
20-07-2021
27-07-2021
03-08-2021
10-08-2021
17-08-2021
Telangana 163,96,069 31% 11%
Haryana 139,22,252 37% 11%
Chhattisgarh 130,82,774 34% 10%
Delhi 116,76,272 41% 16%
Punjab 114,67,339 28% 8%
Jharkhand 111,02,464 24% 6%
Others 527,19,225 45% 13%
Vaccine Status Collaborator Approved on / for
3-Jan’21 – for emergency • New vaccine strategy from 21Jun’21, where-
Covishield In use Oxford - AstraZeneca i. the Centre would procure 75% of the total vaccine manufactured and then
use
Bharat Biotech – 3-Jan’21 – for restricted allocate these to states free of cost, and
Covaxin In use
ICMR use ii. the residual 25% would be bought by the private sector
Sputnik V In use Dr. Reddy’s 12-Apr’21 iii. Procurement price as per latest sources: Covishield: INR 205 + 5% GST,
29 jun’21 - Emergency Use Covaxin: INR 215 + 5% GST
Moderna Approved Import only
Authorisation (EUA)
7 Aug’21 - Emergency Use • The Union budget 2021-22 allocates INR 350bn for vaccine roll-out in FY22,
J&J Approved Bio-E
Authorisation (EUA) this could rise to INR 450bn
13India might not meet the 1.35bn vaccine doses target
Vaccines during Aug-Dec
With lower supply, India might not be able to vaccinate all adults by year end (enough for only around 80%
adults)
Vaccine supply (mn doses/day)
13.0
Covishield Covaxin Sputnik V Bio-E Zydus Cadila Sum
11.0
9. 4 9. 7
9. 1
9.0
7.0 6. 3
5. 1
5.0 4. 7 4. 5
2. 8 3. 2
3.0
2.0
1.0
-1.0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India’s vaccination plans for 2021
Govt.’s affidavit: 516mn doses were estimated from Apr-Jul'21. From Aug- Dec will cover the balance 1.35bn doses as per this break-up: 500mn doses of Covishield; 400mn doses
of Covaxin; 300mn doses of Bio E’s sub unit vaccine; 50mn doses of Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine; and 100mn doses of Sputnik V
However in reality, only 150mn doses expected in Aug’21 (Covishield / covaxin monthly production to reach 120 / 58mn doses by Dec), Sputnik V production to start from Sep
Bio E will enter the market with 75mn doses (each month) of its Covid-19 vaccine by Sep-Oct, Zydus Cadila should enter market in next two weeks
Does not include Johnson & Johnson despite they getting an emergency approval on 7 Aug’21. This is because we do not know how long it would take for them to resolve issues
regarding indemnity against legal liabilities in case of severe adverse events
Source: PIB, News Reports, JM Financial, Current daily actual doses administered Apr(3.0mn), May (2.0mn), Jun((4.0mn), Jul(4.2mn)
14India: State-wise Detailed: State Curbs, guidelines and relaxations
Maharashtra
•Relaxations- allowed hotels, restaurants and malls can function in Maharashtra till 10 p.m. from 15 Aug’21/ allowed fully vaccinated people to travel in suburban trains
•Relaxations: Schools to reopen for 10-12 class from 9 Aug for work related to admission and practical activities / reopening of all weekly market / Metro trains, buses can run at full capacity;
Delhi
theatres at 50% cap from 26 Jul, permitted academic gatherings and meetings at schools and colleges, Stadium And Sports Complexes allowed to open with no spectators, Gyms in (50%)
•Lifted Sunday lockdown / Schools to reopen from 16 Aug with 50% attendance, Cinema halls, multiplexes, sports stadiums and gymnasiums allowed to open
UP
•Restaurants, shopping malls to open at 50% /Night curfew will be implemented from 10 pm to 6 am in Noida, Ghaziabad, Lucknow, and other cities
•Extends Covid-19 containment measures till 16 Aug, has made RT-PCR test certificates mandatory for those travelling in from Kerala, Maharashtra, TN / Night curfew to continue / Weekend
Karnataka curfew in Karnataka districts bordering Maharashtra, Kerala
•Allowed reopening of worship places, amusement parks, cinema halls, theatres (50% capacity), while colleges have been permitted to allow students on campuses from July 26
•Extends night curfew (11pm-6am) in 8 cities -- Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Gandhinagar, & Junagadh -- till August 28
Gujarat
•400 persons will now be allowed to attend public ceremonies in open spaces, Hotels and restaurants can now remain open till 10 pm
Rajasthan •Cinema halls to reopen; timings for shops extended / All religious places will be allowed to open from 5am to 4pm, offices with with 50% workforce
•Lockdown (3 May-23 Aug)- Extended but night curfew discontinued–Relaxations –All shops; malls can open , restaurants (50% cap), spas (50% cap), Entrance and recruitment
Haryana
examinations allowed, Universities to convene classes for doubts, practical exams
•Lockdown till 30 Aug- Night curfew reduced (11pm-5am) Relaxations: Metro Railway services allowed (50 % cap), Public buses, taxis (50% Cap), Offices (50% Cap), Gyms/ Beauty
WB
parlours (50% Cap), allowed State government programmes that are held indoors with 50% cap, opening of museums including ASI-protected monuments and entertainment parks (50% cap)
•Lockdown like restrictions till further orders; Relaxations: permitted schools to conduct classes for students from STD IX to XII with some conditions, Govt / private offices(50% capacity), All
Jharkhand
shops can remain open till 8 pm/ Cinema halls, bars, multiplexes and restaurants allowed (50% cap) while stadiums, gymnasiums, and parks can be opened
•Mandatory for all air travellers taking flights to the state to carry a negative RT-PCR report from 8 Aug; Bars, Restaurants, Multiplexes To Open With 50% Capacity; allowed resumption of
Chhattisgarh
Classes I to V and Class VIII subject to certain conditions
MP •Cinemas (50% cap), restaurants (100%), Sunday Lockdown Lifted in Madhya Pradesh; Night Curfew To Remain in Place
Bihar •From Aug 7, all schools will open for class 9 onwards, while class 1-8 will open from Aug 16, but the 50% cap / All govt and pvt offices can operate for vaccinated, / restaurants at 50% capacity
•Reopening of schools for all classes from 2 Aug; Lifts Weekend lockdown, Night Curfew; Bars, cinema halls, restaurants, spas, swimming pools, gyms, malls, sports complexes, museums,
Punjab
zoos will reopen / colleges, coaching centres, and other institutions of higher learning will reopen
Odisha •Unlock from 1 Aug; All weekly and monthly markets, shopping malls, and parks are allowed to reopen; Allows ‘indoor Puja’ Under COVID Restrictions: No gatherings, no devotees
•Aug 11 onwards, only people who have taken at least one dose of the vaccine before 2 weeks, or who are in possession of RT-PCR negative certificates taken 72 hours before will be allowed
Kerala
inside shops, banks and other establishments
AP •Relaxations –schools reopen from 16 Aug (max 20 students per session),all commercial establishments will be shut by 9 PM and curfew restrictions will begin from 10 PM till 6 AM
TN •Lockdown extended till 23 Aug’21 – Schools to reopen from 1 Sep’21 (classes IX to XII), medical colleges, institutions of nursing, and related ones can resume functioning from August 16
Telangana •Schools, colleges to open from 1 July, has ordered "all branches to lift all types of regulations imposed during the lockdown in full extent”
• Relaxations- weekend curfew lifted/ night curfew still in force/public and private educational institutions are permitted to seek personal attendance of limited vaccinated staff for admin
J&K
purposes; relaxation on gatherings on independence day
•Covid Curfew 11 May-24 Aug- Extended / Relaxations - govt reopened offline studies in schools for students of Classes 9 to 12, government offices were allowed to function with 100 per
Uttarakhand
cent capacity. Shops and business establishments in the state were also permitted to open from 8 am to 9 pm six days a week
•Negative RT-PCR report/ full vaccination certificate mandatory to enter the state; schools will remain closed, except the residential ones, from August 11; Inter-state, inter-district and intra-
HP
district movement of public transport buses will be allowed to be operate with 50% seating capacity
•Lockdown 9 May - 23 Aug –Extended / Relaxations: all stores and shops/malls can operate from 7 am to 6 pm per day/gyms (50% cap), sports complex, religious places (15 cap), Negative
Goa
RT-PCR report/ full vaccination certificate mandatory to visit Goa
•Lockdown (3 May - 31 Aug)- Extended / Relaxations: opening of bars and theatres with 50% cap, Religious places and places of worship will also be opened for the public for darshan till 9
Puducherry
pm, beach road, park, and gardens will be opened for walkers till 9 pm on all days/ Bars and restaurants within the hotels are permitted to operate with 50 % capacity / Night Curfew
North East •Sikkim lockdown lifted (6 May-19 Jul), Nagaland (Unlock 4 from 1 Aug), Mizoram lockdown (Aizwal- till 31 Jul), Arunachal Pradesh (till 20 Jun), Manipur lockdown (3 Aug), Assam (night curfew) 15India: Indicators As far as economic activity is considered…
Congestion levels pick up in some major cities Pollution levels for select industrial areas slightly higher
this week till mid-Aug’21
This year Last year Average Pollution Index (Select Industrial areas)
350 Manufacturing PMI- RHS 61
56%56% 56% 300
52% 52% 52% 59
51% 51% 51%
46% 46% 250
46%
57
40% 200
39% 38%
33% 33% 34% 33% 33% 150 55
32%
29%
26%
100 53
23%
50
51
-
49
-50
-100 47
01-Aug
08-Aug
17-Aug
01-Aug
08-Aug
17-Aug
01-Aug
08-Aug
17-Aug
01-Aug
08-Aug
17-Aug
-150 45
Nov-19
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-20
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-21
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Bangalore Delhi Mumbai Pune
Source TomTom Index,- Taken for peak hours at 7pm; JM Financial, Last year stands for full year average Source: CMIE, JM Financial; *Average Pollution index on 500 at 11am on last day of the week: Navi Mumbai,
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Moradabad, Vishakhapatnam and Chennai in these regions- Airoli, Maninagar,
Talkatora, Lajpat Nagar, GVM Corporation and Manali
162-year CAGR in railway freight revenue higher in Aug’21
Indicators: Industrial (till mid-Aug); 2-year CAGR of power consumption higher
2-year CAGR* in railway freight revenue at 6.9% in Power consumption 2-year CAGR at 8.0% in Aug’21 (till
Aug’21 (till 16th) vs. 4.7% in Jul’21 15th) vs. +3.7% / -3.2% in Jul’21 / Jun-21; higher WoW
Railway Freight Revenue growth (2 year CAGR) 2-year CAGR Power consumption (Weekly sum)
Loading growth (2 year CAGR) LK* LK* LK* LK*
3 4
15% 1 2
15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0%
0%
-5%
-10% -5%
-15% -10%
-20%
-15%
-25%
28-Feb-21
02-Aug-20
06-Dec-20
11-Apr-21
15-Aug-21
21-Jun-20
10-May-20
13-Sep-20
25-Oct-20
23-May-21
04-Jul-21
17-Jan-21
May-20
May-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Jul-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Jul-21
Aug-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
1-9 Aug'21
10-16 Aug'21
Source: Rail drishti, JM Financial, Railway freight revenue YoY growth at 22% in Jul’21 Source: POSOCO, JM Financial; LK* stands for Lockdown. YoY growth at 14.9% in Aug’21
Base for 2019 has been taken as the monthly railway freight revenue reported by ministry of railways
17Daily avg. e-way bills 2-year CAGR higher (till mid-Aug-21);
Indicators: Industrial Workplace mobility improves to Dec’20 levels
2-year CAGR in daily average e-way bills at 11.3% in Mobility for workplaces down by 13% in the week
Aug’21 (till mid-Aug) vs. 10.9% in Jul’21 ending 12-Aug, vs. 15% before that
All India Maharashtra Delhi TN
AP UP Karnataka
80 E-way Bills (mn) 2-year CAGR 20%
70 10%
20
60
0% 10
50 0
-10%
40 -10
-20% -20
30 -30
-30% -40
20
-40% -50
10
-60
0 -50% -70
-80
Feb-21
Aug-20
Nov-20
Jun-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
1-8 Aug'21
Jul-20
Jun-21
Jul-21
Apr-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
May-20
Jan-21
May-21
Mar-21
9-15 Aug'21
-90
12-Feb-20
12-Feb-21
12-Mar-20
12-Dec-20
12-Apr-20
12-May-20
12-Jul-20
12-Aug-20
12-Sep-20
12-Mar-21
12-Apr-21
12-Aug-21
12-May-21
12-Jul-21
12-Jun-20
12-Jun-21
12-Oct-20
12-Nov-20
12-Jan-21
Source: GST Network, JM Financial; YoY growth at 33% in Jul’21 Source Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. * Mobility trends for
places of work, *Weekly Average
18Indicators: Industrial 2-year CAGR in electronic toll collections higher in Jul’21
National Electronic Toll Collections 2-year CAGR higher 61% of INR 4.5trn ECLGS scheme sanctioned;
in Jul’21 vs. Jun’21 78% of sanctioned amount disbursed till mid-Jul’21
National Electronics Toll Collections - Volume (2 year CAGR) INR trn ECLGS
200%
4.5
4.0
150%
3.5
3.0 2.8
100%
2.5 2.1
50% 2.0
1.5
0% 1.0
0.5
-50% 0.0
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
Jul-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Cumulative amount sanctioned Cumulative amount Disbursed
Source: NPCI, JM Financial Source Ministry of Finance, JM Financial, As on 15 Jul’21
19Vehicle registrations lower WoW however,
Indicators: Consumption PVs continue to record +ve 2-year CAGR
2-year CAGR in daily vehicle registrations remains in
Number of all-India vehicle registrations lower WoW
the +ve territory for PVs
100%
Vehicle Registrations (2-Year CAGR)
25-Apr 02-May 09-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 80%
06-Jun 13-Jun 21-Jun 27-Jun 05-Jul 12-Jul PV 2-Wheelers MHCV LCV
18-Jul 25-Jul 01-Aug 08-Aug 15-Aug 60%
330 40%
320
20%
0%
150 -20%
145
-40%
-60%
12 13
-80%
Vehicle No. of Revenue
registrations (in transactions (in collections (INR -100%
10-Aug-21
17-Aug-21
Apr-20
May-20
Apr-21
May-21
Oct-19
Dec-19
Dec-20
Jan-21
Aug-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Mar-21
Jun-20
Oct-20
Jun-21
Nov-19
Jan-20
Nov-20
Sep-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
000s) 10, 000s) bn)
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial
202-year CAGR of property registrations in Maharashtra
Indicators: Consumption lower till 17-Aug’21, Air travel lower WoW
2-year CAGR in daily avg. property registrations in Daily airline departures, passengers lower WoW- yet at
Maharashtra at 2.4% till 17 Aug’21 vs. 10.4% in Jul’21 Nov’20 levels
Average daily registration of property in Maharashtra excl Mumbai No. of Passengers - RHS (7 Day MA)
2 year CAGR
80% 2,700 3,20,000
Average daily registration of property in Mumbai No. of departures (7 Day MA)
60%
40% 2,200 2,70,000
20%
2,20,000
0%
1,700
-20%
1,70,000
-40%
1,200
-60% 1,20,000
-80%
700 70,000
-100%
-120%
200 20,000
Aug-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Feb-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
Apr-21
11-17 Aug'21
May-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
May-21
Jun-21
Mar-20
Mar-21
1-10 Aug'21
16 Jun 20
16 Jun 21
16 Aug 20
16 Dec 20
16 Aug 21
16 Jul 20
16 Mar 21
16 Jul 21
16 Sep 20
16 Oct 20
16 Jan 21
16 Apr 21
16 May 21
16 Nov 20
16 Feb 21
Source: igrmaharashtra.gov.in/, JM Financial; YoY growth stands at 18% in Aug’21 for Maharashtra Source: Ministry of Civil Aviation, JM Financial
21All-India Google mobility trends for recreation improve
Indicators: Consumption to Feb’21 levels; Unemployment moderates WoW
CMIE’s unemployment rate fell to 8.0% in the week
Mobility for retail and recreation* down by 16% in the
ending 15-Aug’21 vs. 8.1% last week; Labour
week ending 12-Aug vs. 21% in the week before that
participation rate fell to 40.5%
Unemployment rate (UER)
ALL INDIA Maharashtra Delhi TN Labour participation rate (LPR) - RHS
AP UP Karnataka
22 44
20 20 42
18
0 40
16
-20 14 38
-40 12 36
-60 10
34
8
-80 32
6
-100 4 30
12-Feb-20
12-Feb-21
12-Dec-20
12-Apr-20
12-Aug-20
12-Apr-21
12-Aug-21
12-Mar-20
12-Jun-20
12-May-20
12-Jul-20
12-Mar-21
12-Jun-21
12-Sep-20
12-May-21
12-Jul-21
12-Oct-20
12-Nov-20
12-Jan-21
15-Feb-21
15-Mar-21
15-Dec-20
15-Jul-20
15-Aug-20
15-Apr-21
15-Jul-21
15-Aug-21
15-Jun-20
15-Jun-21
15-May-20
15-Sep-20
15-May-21
15-Oct-20
15-Nov-20
15-Jan-21
Source: Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb’20. *Weekly Average Source: CMIE, JM Financial
* Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, and
movie theatres.
22AePS cash withdrawal higher/ volume of digital payments
Indicators: Consumption lower WoW
Aadhaar-enabled Payment System (AePS) cash
Volume of digital payments lower WoW
withdrawals higher WoW
(mn)
INR bn AePS (through micro-ATMs / BCs) - Weekly Sum mn Volume of Digital Payments (RTGS+AePS+NEFT+UPI+IMPS+NACH)
Vol (mn) Val (INR bn) - RHS 185.00
25 80
23 75 165.00
21 70
19 65 145.00
17 60
125.00
15 55
13 50 105.00
11 45
9 40 85.00
7 35
65.00
5 30
16-Feb-21
16-Jul-20
16-Aug-20
16-Dec-20
16-Jan-21
16-Mar-21
16-Apr-21
16-Jun-20
16-May-21
16-Jul-21
16-Aug-21
16-Jun-21
16-Sep-20
16-Oct-20
16-Nov-20
16-Mar-21
16-Oct-20
16-Aug-20
16-Feb-21
16-Sep-20
16-Dec-20
16-Apr-21
16-Aug-21
16-May-20
16-Jun-20
16-Jul-20
16-Jun-21
16-Nov-20
16-May-21
16-Jul-21
16-Jan-21
Source RBI, JM Financial, *Weekly Sum Source: RBI, JM Financial; 7-day moving average
23Incremental C-D Ratio rises to 38%; corporate spreads
Indicators: Monetary near pre-Covid levels
Credit-deposit ratio of commercial banks stood at 70% Corporate bond spreads remain near pre-Covid levels
on 30 Jul’21; incremental C-D ratio rises to 38%
bps
330 Corporate bond spreads: 1 year AA Corporate bond spreads: 3 year AA
System CD Ratio Incremental CD Ratio - RHS
280
300%
79%
250% 230
77%
75% 200% 180
70%
73% 150%
130
71%
100%
69% 38% 80
67% 50%
65% 0% 30
17-Jan-21
17-Feb-20
17-Feb-21
17-Mar-20
17-Dec-20
17-Apr-20
17-Aug-20
17-Mar-21
17-May-20
17-Jun-20
17-Apr-21
17-Aug-21
17-May-21
17-Jul-20
17-Jun-21
17-Sep-20
17-Oct-20
17-Nov-20
17-Jul-21
29-Sep-17
29-Sep-18
29-Sep-19
29-Sep-20
29-Jul-17
29-Jul-18
29-Jul-19
29-Jul-20
29-Jul-21
29-Jan-18
29-Jan-21
29-Nov-17
29-Nov-18
29-Nov-19
29-Jan-19
29-Jan-20
29-Nov-20
29-Mar-18
29-Mar-19
29-Mar-20
29-Mar-21
29-May-18
29-May-19
29-May-20
29-May-21
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial;
24NACH bounce rate in Jul’21 lower; Retail stock trading
Indicators: Monetary turnover lower WoW
NACH bounce rate for recurring payments lower in
Retail stock trading lower WoW; 0.9x of Aug’20 levels
Jul’21 vs. Jun’21
Retail stock trading turnover- 7 day moving average (INR cr)
50
NACH Bounce rate for Recurring payments (EMI, Insurance 65000
premium etc) 60000
45 55000
40 50000
45000
35 40000
35000
30 30000
25 25000
20000
20 15000
Apr-19
Apr-18
Apr-20
Apr-21
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
16-Feb-20
16-Mar-20
16-Feb-21
16-Mar-21
16-Apr-20
16-Aug-20
16-Oct-20
16-Dec-20
16-Apr-21
16-Aug-21
16-Jun-20
16-Jun-21
16-May-20
16-Jul-20
16-Sep-20
16-May-21
16-Jul-21
16-Jan-20
16-Nov-20
16-Jan-21
Source NCPI, JM Financial Source MoneyControl, BSE, NSE, JM Financial
25Indicators: Rural Monsoon lower WoW, Kharif sowing normalizes
Rainfall had improved in late July but has been weak in Kharif sowing normalizes - Overall 2% down from
last week, expect normalisation by end of season elevated base of last year, up 2% from normal
2020 2021 Kharif sowing -YTD CY21 - YoY (%)
120% Kharif sowing -YTD CY21 - % difference from normal
8% 6% 6%
100%
6%
4% 4%
80% 2%
2% 2% 2%
60%
0%
0%
40% -2% -1% 0%
-2%
-4% -2%
20% -3% -3%
9%
-6%
0% -8%
-8% -7%
-20% -10%
1st 11th 21st 2nd 12th 22nd 1st 11th 21st 31st 10th 20th 30th Paddy Pulses Coarse Oilseeds Sugarcane Cotton Kharif
Cereals Sowing
June June June July July July Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep
Source: Ministry of agriculture, JM Financial Source: Ministry of Agriculture,, JM Financial, *
26Tractor sales see a rebound; MGNREGA days lower than
Indicators: Rural last year
Auto sales - Sales improved across categories, tractor MGNREGA days remains lower than last year’s elevated
sales see sharper rebound levels
Person days (mn)
% YoY MSIL PV % YoY HMCL 2W FY22 FY21 FY20
% YoY M&M tractor % YoY Escorts tractor FY19 FY18 FY17
100% 700
600
50%
500
0% 400
300
-50%
200
-100% 100
-150% -
February
April
May
September
July
June
December
March
August
October
November
January
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jan-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Apr-21
Jul-20
Jul-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
Source Company, JM Financial, Note: Apr-Jul'21 as compared to Jul'19 Source: nrega.nic.in, JM Financial
27Inflation lower this week; mandi arrivals better than
Indicators: Rural last year
Inflation lower for most key categories this week Mandi volumes remain steady and better than last year
YoY% Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2019 Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2020
Rice Atta Potato Pulses Onion - RHS Tomato
Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2021
120% 200%
(mn Tn)
100% 20
150%
80% 18
60% 100% 16
14
40%
50% 12
20%
10
0% 0% 8
5.6
-20% 6
-50% 4.9
4
-40% 4.5
2
-60% -100%
0
15-Feb-20
15-Feb-21
15-Mar-20
15-Mar-21
15-May-21
15-Oct-20
15-Dec-20
15-May-20
15-Jul-20
15-Nov-20
15-Jul-21
15-Jun-20
15-Jun-21
15-Apr-20
15-Aug-20
15-Sep-20
15-Jan-21
15-Apr-21
15-Aug-21
May-Wk2
May-Wk4
Jun-Wk2
Jun-Wk4
Jan-Wk3
Aug-Wk3
Jan-Wk1
July-Wk3
Aug-Wk1
Mar-Wk1
Mar-Wk3
Apr-Wk1
Apr-Wk3
Apr-Wk5
Feb-Wk2
Source: Department of Consumer Affairs, JM Financial Source: Argmarket, JM Financial
2870
71
72
77
73
74
75
76
17-Jan-20
1 year
17-Feb-20
Jul-21
Feb-21
17-Mar-20
17-Apr-20
3 year
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
17-May-20
India: Indicators
17-Jun-20
17-Jul-20
17-Aug-20
5 year
Apr-21
Mar-20
17-Sep-20
17-Oct-20
17-Nov-20
10 year
INR
17-Dec-20
17-Jan-21
Dec-20
17-Feb-21
May-21
…the INR stood at 74.3
Yield curve steeper in Aug-21
15 year
17-Mar-21
17-Apr-21
17-May-21
17-Jun-21 30 year
17-Jul-21
17-Aug-21
%
4.5
7.5
3.5
5.5
6.5
17-Aug-21
Other indicators…
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
17-Jan-20
-
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
17-Feb-20
12-Jan-20
17-Mar-20
USD bn
12-Feb-20
17-Apr-20
12-Mar-20
17-May-20
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
12-Apr-20
17-Jun-20 12-May-20
12-Jun-20
Debt
17-Jul-20
Equity
17-Aug-20 12-Jul-20
12-Aug-20
17-Sep-20
12-Sep-20
17-Oct-20
12-Oct-20
17-Nov-20
12-Nov-20
17-Dec-20
Oil- USD /bbl
12-Dec-20
17-Jan-21 12-Jan-21
17-Feb-21 12-Feb-21
17-Mar-21 12-Mar-21
Oil prices fall to USD 69/bbl
12-Apr-21
FII equity flows steady WoW
17-Apr-21
12-May-21
17-May-21
Cumulative FII flows (debt+ equity) since 1Jan'20
12-Jun-21
17-Jun-21 12-Jul-21
17-Jul-21 12-Aug-21
17-Aug-21
29Five-fold containment strategy extended till 31 Aug’21
Unlock 1.0 : 1 - 8Jun'20
Allowed Hotels, restaurants and other hospitality services, Shopping malls / Religious places and places of worship for public
Night curfew 9 pm to 5 am: All India except essential activities
Shut Containment zones except essential activities
Allowed Intra-state and inter-state movement of people and goods. No pass necessary
Unlock 2.0 : 1Jul’20
Shut Inside containment zones, lockdown measures have been extended till July 31
Shut Schools, colleges and coaching institutions will remain closed till July 31
Shut Metro rail, cinema halls, gymnasiums, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres, bars
Allowed Shops outside containment zones can have more than five persons at a time
Flights Domestic flights will be further expanded while international air travel will continue in a limited manner under the Vande Bharat mission
Night curfew Timings are being further relaxed to 10 pm to 5 am
Unlock 3.0: 1Aug’20
Allowed Interstate travelling without restrictions
Allowed Opening of yoga institutes and gymnasiums from 5 Aug’20
Shut Schools, colleges, metro rail service, cinema halls, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres
Night curfew Removed
Unlock 4.0: 1 Sep’20
Allowed Metro rail services from 7 Sep’20
Allowed Social/academic/sports/entertainment/cultural/religious/political functions allowed with a cap of 100 people from 21 Sep’20
Allowed States, UTs may permit upto 50% of teaching, non-teaching staff to be called to school s / Students of Class 9-12 can visit schools on voluntary basis to clear doubts
Allowed Open air theatres from 21 Sep’20
Shut Schools/Colleges/Cinemas/Swimming Pools/Theatres/Entertainment Parks/International Travel
Lockdown No lockdown outside of containment zones (without govt.’s consultation)
Unlock 5.0: 1 Oct’20 / Unlock 6.0: 1 Nov’20
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Schools / Colleges allowed to reopen from 15 Oct with voluntary attendance (states have flexibility to decide)
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Allowed Entertainment parks permitted to open
Shut Ban on international commercial flights extended till 31 Oct
Unlock 7.0: 1 Dec’20 / Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Jan’21
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Social/ religious/ sports/ entertainment/edu/cul/rel gatherings, with up to a maximum of 50 % of the hall capacity, with a ceiling of 200 persons in closed spaces
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Shut Suspension of scheduled international flights till 31 Dec’20. but Vande Bharat Mission/travel bubbles will continue (UK flights banned till 7 Jan’21)
Lockdown States may impose local restrictions such as night curfews but cannot impose any local lockdown without consultation with the Centre
Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Feb’21/1-Mar’21/1Apr’21
Allowed Cinema halls/theatres can operate with more than 50% of capacity
Allowed Opening of swimming pools for all and exhibitions
States States can impose local curbs / "Test-Track-Treat“ - Each state and UT to ensure the proportion of RT-PCR tests is 70 per cent or more
Shut International flights banned till 30 Apr’21
Containment Guidelines 1-31 May’21 / 1-30 Jun’21
Shut Strictly implement containment measures in districts where either the test positivity is more than 10% in the past one week or where the bed occupancy is more than 60%
Shut Extended suspension of scheduled international flights till 30 Jun’21
Shut Shopping malls, cinema halls, restaurants, bars, sports complexes, spas, gyms, swimming pools, gatherings
Containment Guidelines 1-31 Jul’21 / 1-31 Aug’21
Five-fold strategy includes testing, tracking, treatment, vaccinating and adhering to COVID-appropriate behaviour, focus on micro-containment zones in cases of spike in
Five Fold Startegy
positivity rate, and issue relaxations only in a "calibrated" manner
30
Source News18, JM FinancialRefer to our other earlier tracker reports
1. The COVID-19 Files: Your weekly update on COVID-19 41. The Covid-19 Files | Covid cases rise again..
2. The COVID-19 Files: Unveiling relief measures 2.0 42. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases at 0.17mn, up 12% this week vs. 7% last week
3. The COVID-19 Files- End of fiscal stimulus in India? 43. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 12% this week to 0.19mn
4. The COVID Files- More economic indicators showing improvement 44. The Covid-19 Files | New cases rise but growth in some economic indicators
5. The COVID-19 Files-From Lockdown 4.0 to Unlock 1.0 better until mid-Mar’21 vs. Feb’21
6. The COVID-19 Files- Improvement in most economic indicators 45. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 53% this week
7. The COVID-19 Files- India now ranks 4th in the global COVID-19 cases 46. The Covid-19 Files | New daily cases rise above previous peak in some states
8. The COVID-19 Files: India COVID-19 cases cross 0.4mn mark 47. The Covid-19 Files | New cases under 2nd wave now higher than previous peak
9. The COVID-19 Files: Daily growth in cases inches up 48. The Covid-19 Files | Additional Lockdowns? The interplay between the 2nd
10. The Covid-19 Files | India replaces Russia as 3rd worse-hit COVID-19 nation COVID-19 wave, vaccination & health infra
11. The Covid-19 Files | Improvement in consumption indicators flattening? 49. The Covid-19 Files | All above 18 eligible for vaccine from 1 May’21
12. The COVID-19 Files: Cases in India cross the 1mn mark 50. The Covid-19 Files | Mortalities surge almost 100% this week
13. The COVID-19 Files: Daily cases growth surges back to 3.7% 51. The COVID-19 Files: The Indian economy not in the worst place
14. The COVID-19 Files: Unlock 3.0 begins 52. The COVID-19 Files- Some positivity amid the gloom
15. The COVID-19 Files: Covid cases growth moderating, recovery remains gradual 53. The COVID-19 Files | Daily cases fall below 0.3mn after almost a month
16. The COVID-19 Files: Consumption indicators hold up momentum for 3rd consecutive 54. The COVID-19 Files| Despite being replete with lockdowns, May'21 economic
week indicators better than last year
17. The COVID-19 Files: Peaking awaited: Growth in new cases slows further 55. The COVID-19 Files| More positive news on COVID situation, google mobility
18. The COVID-19 files - Unlock 4.0 begins begins exhibiting improvement
19. The COVID-19 files - India overtakes Brazil as the second worst-hit COVID-19 nation 56. The COVID-19 Files- Economic indicators exhibit improvement in the 1st week of
20. The COVID-19 files - Slower testing, delayed peaking & lagging recovery June amid relaxations in curbs
21. The COVID-19 files - Slight moderation in India’s new cases trajectory 57. The COVID-19 Files | States relax restrictions
22. The COVID-19 Files - Temporary peaking for India? 58. The COVID-19 Files- New vaccine policy begins with record high inoculations
23. The Covid-19 Files - Unlock 5.0: Seemingly peaking trajectory vs. slowing testing growth 59. The COVID-19 Files- Some elements of concern reappearing amid the otherwise
24. The Covid-19 Files | Sustained recovery in indicators continues calm all-India COVID-19 situation
25. The Covid-19 Files | Growth in daily cases falls below 1% 60. The COVID-19 Files- Delta variant causing a rise in COVID-19 cases in major
26. The Covid-19 Files | Daily cases continue to taper off countries globally
27. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 6 begins 61. The COVID-19 Files- Slower vaccinations amid the threat of a third wave
28. The Covid-19 Files | Third wave in Delhi hindering decline in the all-India daily case 62. The COVID-19 Files- ICMR’s survey results of seroprevalence at 68% bodes well
growth for achieving herd immunity by Sep’21
29. The COVID-19 Files | Fresh waves of infections & cooling momentum in recovery? 63. The COVID-19 Files-Daily new COVID-19 cases, vaccines administered exhibiting
30. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 7.0 sticky trends
31. The Covid-19 Files | Can we hope for a better December? 64. The COVID-19 Files-Studies predict third wave to hit this month
32. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases fall to mid-Jul’20 levels 65. The COVID-19 Files- Vaccine supply may not be adequate to inoculate all adults
33. The Covid-19 Files | New coronavirus variant in UK: Renewed trouble for the world? by Dec-21
34. The Covid-19 Files | The COVID-19 Files- India's new cases lowest since Jun'20
35. The Covid-19 Files | India approves two vaccines
36. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive to begin from 16 Jan’21
37. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive begins..
38. The Covid-19 Files | World’s fastest vaccination roll-out; Active cases at Jun’20 levels
39. The Covid-19 Files | Globally new cases on the downward trajectory, economic recovery
steady
40. The Covid-19 Files | Steady growth in economic indicators for Feb’21 so far
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