Delta variant causing rising cases in key nations globally - 6 Jul 2021 - JM Financial
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6 Jul 2021
Delta variant causing rising cases in key nations
globally
Aishwarya Sonker
aishwarya.sonker@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303351
Harshita Kain
harshita.kain@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66301851
Arshad Perwez
arshad.perwez@jmfl.com | Tel: 9122 66303080Summary: 60th edition of the COVID-19 files
The all-India COVID-19 situation still reflecting positive trends:
1. Daily cases remained near the 40k mark, the lowest since 17 Mar‟21, with active cases at merely 0.46mn (vs. peak of 3.7mn)
2. Daily deaths fell near the 500 mark this week; at early Apr‟21 levels
3. Positivity rate has dipped to early-Mar levels of 2%
4 The centre has lowered its estimate of vaccine supply by 810mn from Aug-Dec. The estimates are more realistic and yet promises
vaccination for all adults by Dec‟21
5. The number of districts with a positivity rate of >10% fell this week after rising last week (73 districts vs. 84 last week)
COVID-19 However some pockets of concerns are reappearing, and need to be watched out:
situation 1. Australia, Russia, UK, Iran, Israel, Indonesia are amongst the key nations seeing fresh infections on account of delta variant
2. Delta plus variant cases are being reported from around 12 states in India with Maharashtra leading the tally
3. India‟s average daily vaccine doses administered lower WoW- at 4.1mn vs. 5.8mn last week. However, this is still higher than 3.2/2.0/3.0mn
in early Jun/May/April
4. After announcements of relaxations to lockdown like curbs, the new delta plus variant has compelled to i) Maharashtra to modify its unlock
plans due to increase in cases, and ii) lockdowns have been extended in Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, Goa
5. AIIMS chief has warned that the third wave of COVID-19 could hit India in 6-8 weeks
o 1st week of Jul‟21 witnessed an uptick in railway freight revenue, power consumption and vehicle registrations while some moderation was seen
in growth in e-way bills, property registrations
o Improvement seen in number of airplane passengers (at Oct‟20 levels) and Google mobility trends for workplaces / retail and recreation (at
Sep/Oct‟20 levels)
o After the washout months of May, Jun‟21 activity levels quickly rebounded to Sep-Oct‟20 levels
o Agriculture operations continued to remain normal till this week. Most of Rabi harvesting is done and procurement is proceeding as per plan
and ahead of last year. However, monsoon has slowed down in last two weeks.
Economic 2-year CAGR Current activity
Indicator
indicators 1st week of Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20 levels same as..
Property registration in Maharashtra 11.9% 12.8% -27.0% -4.9% -15.0% -49.7% -91.6% Nov-20
E-way bills 2.4% 4.9% -14.2% 5.8% -3.6% -17.3% -44.5% Sep-20
Railway freight 5.5% 2.4% 2.5% 4.0% -6.1% -15.0% -21.8% Dec-20
Power consumption 4.4% -3.2% -4.4% 3.2% NA NA NA Jul-20
Airline passengers Oct-20
Vehicle Registrations -10.2% -15.4% -45.8% -17.4% -27.0% -68.2% -55.6% Aug-20
Google Mobility for recreation (Change from Jan-Feb’20* -31% -42% -62% -37% -60% -76% -83% Oct-20
Google Mobility for workplaces (Change from Jan-Feb’20)* -25% -31% -48% -28% -30% -44% -61% Sep-20
2India‟s COVID-19 tally 2nd largest in the world; share in
daily global cases dips to 11%, recoveries at 18%
India share of Cases 7DMA India Share of Deaths 7DMA
India share in recoveries 7DMA
70%
60%
50%
40% 18%
30%
20% 11%
10% 11%
0%
10-06-2020
07-03-2021
11-05-2020
10-07-2020
09-08-2020
08-09-2020
08-10-2020
07-11-2020
07-12-2020
06-01-2021
05-02-2021
06-04-2021
06-05-2021
05-06-2021
05-07-2021
Source: Worldometer, As on 6 Jul‟21
World : Total cases- 185.1mn World: Total deaths- 4.0mn World: Total recovered- 169.4mn
USA USA USA
19% 16% 17%
India
10%
Others Others
48% India 49% India
Others
17% 18%
55%
Brazil
13%
Brazil Russia France Brazil
Russia Russia
3% 10%
3% France 10% 3% 3%
France
3% 3%
3India vs. Rest of World Daily cases in India near 40k, at mid-Mar‟21 levels
India’s second wave has peaked, infections can be seen Daily cases growth (CDGR*) in India at 0.1% vs. 0.2%
rising again in Russia/UK/Iran led by the delta variant last week
Italy France Spain
Iran Russia US - RHS 2 we e k s
India - RHS Brazil - RHS UK - RHS Until 3 da ys a fte r S ince Pa s t one
a fte r the
60000 450000 Lock down the lock down lock down we e k
lock down
400000
50000 China* 44% 34% 29% 1% 0.1%
350000 Italy 24% 19% 16% 1% 0.0%
40000 300000 France 16% 19% 15% 1% 0.0%
250000 Spain 22% 30% 21% 1% 0.1%
30000 Iran 47% 14% 8% 1% 0.4%
200000
20000 150000 India 26% 14% 17% 2% 0.1%
Russia 12% 13% 18% 2% 0.4%
100000
10000 UK 17% 19% 16% 1% 0.5%
50000 Brazil 0.3%
0 0 US 0.0%
Day 1
Day 20
Day 115
Day 134
Day 153
Day 172
Day 191
Day 210
Day 229
Day 248
Day 267
Day 286
Day 305
Day 324
Day 343
Day 362
Day 381
Day 400
Day 419
Day 438
Day 457
Day 476
Day 495
Day 514
Day 39
Day 58
Day 77
Day 96
A s on 5-Jul-21; * Hube i lock down
Source WHO as on 5 Jul‟21 JM Financial, Note, Cases in China peaked in early Feb 2020 (Day 15-Day 25, Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 5 Jul‟21, *CDGR: Compounded daily growth rate
we have not plotted as it stands as an outlier), *7 Day Moving Average
4India‟s daily recovery rate near 128%; daily deaths
India vs. Rest of World continue declining
Daily deaths fell near the 500 mark this week – at early
Daily recoveries-to-daily cases near 128%
Apr’21 levels
China Italy Spain Iran US
Daily Cases 7DMA Daily Recoveries 7DMA
India Russia Brazil UK France
Daily Recovery Rate - RHS 4500
450000 200% 4000
400000 180% 3500
350000 160% 3000
300000 140%
120% 2500
250000
100% 2000
200000 80%
150000 1500
60%
100000 40% 1000
50000 20% 500
0 0%
0
06-11-2020
06-12-2020
06-03-2020
06-04-2020
06-05-2020
06-06-2020
06-07-2020
06-08-2020
06-09-2020
06-10-2020
06-01-2021
06-02-2021
06-03-2021
06-04-2021
06-05-2021
06-06-2021
06-07-2021
Day 129
Day 305
Day 417
Day 113
Day 145
Day 161
Day 177
Day 193
Day 209
Day 225
Day 241
Day 257
Day 273
Day 289
Day 321
Day 337
Day 353
Day 369
Day 385
Day 401
Day 433
Day 449
Day 465
Day 481
Day 497
Day 17
Day 33
Day 49
Day 65
Day 81
Day 97
Day 1
Source WHO as on 6 Jul‟21 JM Financial Source: WHO, JM Financial; As on 5 Jul‟21
5All-India testing growth improves; Number of districts with
India: State-wise
positivity rate >10% fell again his week after rising last week
25% All-India Positivity Rate (7DMA)
20%
15%
All-India testing rises by 2.3% this week after a 1.6% 10%
decline last week
5%
2500000 0%
Total Tests done (7 Day Moving Average)- RHS
05-10-2020
26-10-2020
16-11-2020
07-12-2020
13-07-2020
03-08-2020
24-08-2020
14-09-2020
28-12-2020
18-01-2021
08-02-2021
01-03-2021
22-03-2021
12-04-2021
03-05-2021
24-05-2021
14-06-2021
05-07-2021
2000000
1500000
1000000
Number of districts - weekly district-wise positivity rates >= 10%
500000 500 431
450 394
400 358
0 333 313
350
14-06-2021
05-07-2021
13-07-2020
03-08-2020
24-08-2020
14-09-2020
05-10-2020
26-10-2020
16-11-2020
07-12-2020
28-12-2020
18-01-2021
08-02-2021
01-03-2021
22-03-2021
12-04-2021
03-05-2021
24-05-2021
300 254
250 215
185 165
200
150 114
76 84 73
100
50
Source: CEIC Ministry of Health , JM Financial, As on 5 Jul‟21 0
28 May - 3 Jun
3-9 Jun'21
1-7 Jun'21
18-24 May'21
12-18 May'21
14-20 May'21
17-23 May'21
19-25 May'21
24-30 May'21
8-14 Jun'21
15-21 Jun'21
22-28 Jun'21
29 Jun - 5 Jul'21
6India: State-wise Peaking seen in almost all states
Although an uptick can be seen again in Cases remain low in other lesser affected states..
Maharashtra/Kerala..
New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average New Covid-19 Cases : 7 Day Moving Average
Delhi Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu
Gujarat Madhya Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Kerala 20000 18000
Rajasthan Goa
50000 Maharashtra - RHS 70000 18000 Haryana HP 16000
Uttarakhand Punjab
45000 16000
60000 Chhattisgarh - RHS 14000
40000 14000
12000
35000 50000
12000
30000 10000
40000 10000
25000 8000
8000
20000
30000
6000
6000
15000 20000
4000 4000
10000
10000 2000 2000
5000
0 0
0 0
09-Feb-21
04-Aug-20
25-Aug-20
08-Dec-20
29-Dec-20
21-Apr-20
02-Jun-20
23-Jun-20
13-Apr-21
15-Jun-21
12-May-20
14-Jul-20
02-Mar-21
23-Mar-21
15-Sep-20
04-May-21
25-May-21
06-Jul-21
06-Oct-20
27-Oct-20
17-Nov-20
19-Jan-21
09-Feb-21
04-Aug-20
25-Aug-20
08-Dec-20
29-Dec-20
02-Jun-20
23-Jun-20
21-Apr-20
12-May-20
14-Jul-20
02-Mar-21
23-Mar-21
15-Jun-21
13-Apr-21
04-May-21
25-May-21
06-Jul-21
15-Sep-20
06-Oct-20
27-Oct-20
17-Nov-20
19-Jan-21
Source: CEIC- As on 6-Jul-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average Source: CEIC- As on 6-Jul-21, JM Financial, *7 Day Moving Average
7India‟s active cases decline from peak to 0.46mn;
India: State-wise also below 1st wave peak…
Maharashtra leads with the highest active cases despite …active cases declining all over India
peaking
Maharashtra Kerala Karnataka State Total Active
Cases % Share CDGR
Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh All India - RHS All India 4,64,357 -2%
Maharashtra 1,20,061 26% 0%
8,00,000 4000000 Kerala 1,01,097 22% 1%
Karnataka 42,019 9% -11%
7,00,000 3500000
Tamil Nadu 34,926 8% -2%
6,00,000 3000000 Andhra Pradesh 33,964 7% -3%
Odisha 26,347 6% -1%
5,00,000 2500000
Assam 23,590 5% -2%
4,00,000 2000000 West Bengal 17,950 4% -3%
3,00,000 1500000
Telangana 11,704 3% -2%
Manipur 5,974 1% 1%
2,00,000 1000000 Chhattisgarh 5,220 1% -2%
1,00,000 500000 Meghalaya 4,354 1% 0%
Tripura 3,962 1% 2%
0 0 J&K 3,774 1% -4%
27-10-2020
12-05-2020
02-06-2020
23-06-2020
14-07-2020
04-08-2020
25-08-2020
15-09-2020
06-10-2020
17-11-2020
08-12-2020
29-12-2020
19-01-2021
09-02-2021
02-03-2021
23-03-2021
13-04-2021
04-05-2021
25-05-2021
15-06-2021
06-07-2021
Mizoram 3,730 1% -2%
Arunachal Pradesh 3,118 1% 3%
Others 22,567 5% -5%
Source: CEIC- As on 6-Jul-21, JM Financial, Source: CEIC- As on 6-Jul-21, JM Financial, *CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
8India: State-wise Top 6 GSDP states share in incremental infections declines
Share of incremental infections of higher GSDP states (top
6) continues to fall
Top 20 districts constitute c.32% of total cases vs. Share of top 6 states (by GDP: 58% share: MH, TN, UP, KAR, GUJ, WB)in incremental
infections
39% by end of Aug’20 80% Share of other states: 7DMA
70%
State Test 1 week 60%
District State % Total Cases
per lakh CDGR 50%
Delhi Delhi 1,10,257 5% 0.0% 40%
Bengaluru Urban Karnataka 53,247 4% 0.0% 30%
Pune Maharashtra 34,966 3% 0.1% 20%
Mumbai Maharashtra 34,966 2% 0.1% 10%
Thane Maharashtra 34,966 2% 0.1% 0%
02-02-2021
27-04-2021
07-07-2020
21-07-2020
04-08-2020
18-08-2020
01-09-2020
15-09-2020
29-09-2020
13-10-2020
27-10-2020
10-11-2020
24-11-2020
08-12-2020
22-12-2020
05-01-2021
19-01-2021
16-02-2021
02-03-2021
16-03-2021
30-03-2021
13-04-2021
11-05-2021
25-05-2021
08-06-2021
22-06-2021
06-07-2021
Chennai Tamil Nadu 44,436 2% 0.0%
Nagpur Maharashtra 34,966 2% 0.0%
Nashik Maharashtra 34,966 1% 0.0%
Ernakulam Kerala 67,292 1% 0.3%
Malappuram Kerala 67,292 1% 0.4% New Covid-19 infection coming from Rural see a decline-
North 24 Parganas West Bengal 14,933 1% 0.0% still highest amongst other areas
Kozhikode Kerala 67,292 1% 0.4% Urban Semi-Urban Rural
Kolkata West Bengal 14,933 1% 0.0% 60% 53%
Thiruvananthapuram Kerala 67,292 1% 0.4% 48%
50% 47%
Thrissur Kerala 67,292 1% 0.5%
Ahmednagar Maharashtra 34,966 1% 0.1% 40% 32%
East Godavari Andhra Pradesh 42,963 1% 0.3% 43%
30% 34%
Lucknow Uttar Pradesh 26,271 1% 0.0%
Ahmedabad Gujarat 35,296 1% 0.0% 20%
Kollam Kerala 67,292 1% 0.5% 19% 9%
10% 15%
Source Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, JM Financial; Covid19India.org- As on 5-Jul-21, 0%
2May'21
9May'21
6-Jun'21
13-Jun'21
20-Jun'22
28-Jun'22
11Apr'21
18Apr'21
25Apr'21
5-Jul'22
23May'21
16May'21
30May'21
CDGR = Compounded Daily Growth Rate
9Vaccines: Global Vaccination drive in key nations progressing well…
Global vaccines outpacing global virus Israel, UK, Chile, US, Canada lead in inoculating maximum
% of their population so far
% of population given 1+ dose % population fully vaccinated
Global vaccines administered (mn) Global virus cases (mn) EU 52 36
India 21 5
3500 U.S. 55 47
3254 Brazil 37 13
3000 U.K. 68 51
Germany 57 39
2500 France 54 38
Italy 58 35
2000 Turkey 44 19
Japan 25 14
1500 Mexico 26 16
Indonesia 12 5
Spain 57 41
1000
Canada 68 28
500 184 Russia 16 10
Poland 45 37
Chile 66 56
0 40 10
Argentina
22-06-2020
20-04-2020
11-05-2020
01-06-2020
13-07-2020
03-08-2020
24-08-2020
14-09-2020
05-10-2020
26-10-2020
16-11-2020
07-12-2020
28-12-2020
18-01-2021
08-02-2021
01-03-2021
22-03-2021
12-04-2021
03-05-2021
24-05-2021
14-06-2021
05-07-2021
South Korea 30 10
Morocco 28 26
Colombia 24 15
Saudi Arabia 50 5
Pakistan 7 2
Netherlands 58 32
UAE 47 36
Belgium 65 36
Israel 62 57
Source: CEIC, JM Financial Source: Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker- As on 6-Jul-21
10Average per day vaccine inoculation at 4mn in Jun‟21
India: Vaccine
vs. 2mn in May‟21; Pace slows in Jul‟21
A total of 358mn doses were administered in India till
GJ, KL, RJ, KA, DL leading in terms of the vaccination
6-Jul; Per day inoculation average at 4.1mn vs. 5.8mn last
process (as a % of population)
week
% of population given
State/UT Total Doses 1st dose 2nd dose
Number of people vaccinated (7DMA) Maharashtra 344,05,122 23% 6%
7.0 Uttar Pradesh 334,94,768 13% 2%
Gujarat 271,18,597 31% 9%
6.0 Rajasthan 258,21,624 28% 6%
Karnataka 241,86,500 30% 6%
5.0
West Bengal 229,60,808 18% 6%
4.0 Madhya Pradesh 220,16,496 23% 4%
Bihar 173,85,692 13% 2%
3.0 Tamil Nadu 169,21,705 19% 4%
2.0 Andhra Pradesh 165,82,264 26% 6%
Kerala 149,47,089 32% 11%
1.0 Odisha 125,92,387 23% 5%
0.0 Telangana 118,30,441 26% 5%
Chhattisgarh 100,48,223 29% 6%
24-03-2021
27-05-2021
31-01-2021
04-02-2021
08-02-2021
12-02-2021
16-02-2021
20-02-2021
24-02-2021
28-02-2021
04-03-2021
08-03-2021
12-03-2021
16-03-2021
20-03-2021
28-03-2021
01-04-2021
05-04-2021
09-04-2021
13-04-2021
17-04-2021
21-04-2021
25-04-2021
29-04-2021
03-05-2021
07-05-2021
11-05-2021
15-05-2021
19-05-2021
23-05-2021
31-05-2021
04-06-2021
08-06-2021
12-06-2021
16-06-2021
20-06-2021
24-06-2021
28-06-2021
02-07-2021
06-07-2021
Haryana 95,16,095 28% 6%
Delhi 84,63,689 33% 10%
Punjab 78,74,408 22% 4%
Jharkhand 73,02,375 16% 3%
Others 340,85,329 24% 6%
• New vaccine strategy from 21Jun‟21, where- i) the Centre would procure 75% of
Vaccine Collaborator Approved on / for the total vaccine manufactured and then allocate these to states free of cost, and
ii) the residual 25% would be bought by the private sector which will have to cap
Covishield Oxford - AstraZeneca 3-Jan‟21 – for emergency use the service charge at INR 150 per dose
Covaxin Bharat Biotech – ICMR 3-Jan‟21 – for restricted use
• The Union budget 2021-22 allocates INR 350bn for vaccine roll-out in FY22, this
Sputnik V Dr. Reddy‟s 12-Apr‟21 could rise to INR 450bn
11Around 1.35bn vaccine doses expected during Aug-Dec
Vaccines as per the Centre
1.86-1.88bn vaccine doses are expected till Dec’20– from at least 5 manufacturers, which would fully
inoculate the total 940mn population above 18..
Vaccine supply (mn doses/day)
13.0
Covishield Covaxin Sputnik V Bio-E Zydus Cadila Sum
11.0
9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
9.0
7.0 6.5
5.0 4.7
2.8 3.2
3.0 2.0
1.0
-1.0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Government’s vaccination plans for 2021 – Based on latest Affidavit filed
516mn doses estimated from Apr-Jul'21
From Aug- Dec will cover the balance 1.35bn doses as per this break-up: 500mn doses of Covishield; 400mn doses of Covaxin; 300mn doses of Bio E‟s sub unit
vaccine; 50mn doses of Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine; and 100mn doses of Sputnik V
Does not include other vaccines which are at various stages of development as on date within the country and may come and become available
Until the end of this year, 1.86-1.88bn vaccine doses are expected– from at least 5 manufacturers, which would fully inoculate the total 940mn population above 18
Source: PIB, News Reports, JM Financial, Assumptions: Current rate is average daily doses administered till Apr-21, 12State lockdowns: Extended in June by most, but with major
India: State-wise
relaxations
May Jun July
GDP
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
share
Maharashtra 14%
Uttar Pradesh 10%
Tamil Nadu 10%
Karnataka 9%
West bengal 7%
Madhya Pradesh 5%
Rajasthan 5%
Andhra Pradesh 5%
Delhi 4%
Haryana 4%
Kerala 4%
Telangana 5%
Bihar 3%
Odisha 3%
Punjab 3%
Jharkhand 2%
Chhattisgarh 2%
Uttarakhand 1%
Himachal Pradesh 1%
Jammu and Kashmir 1%
Puducherry 0%
Goa 0%
Sikkim 0%
Mizoram 0%
Nagaland 0%
• During 12May-30May, India had near-lockdown like curbs for almost 25 states/Uts (c.90% of GDP)
• Most states had announced relaxations in some form to their lockdowns from June
• Goa, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Puducherry extended lockdowns while
announcing more relaxations
13India: State-wise Detailed: State Curbs, guidelines and relaxations
Maharashtra •Relaxations from 7 Jun‟21- Five Tier Unlock Process: modified due to emergence of the Delta+ variant. Relaxations under levels 1 and 2 have been done away with and relaxations under
level 3 will be the base; Satara district under a complete lockdown starting July 11
•Relaxations: Stadium And Sports Complexes allowed to open with no spectators, Cinema Halls to remain shut, Gyms in Delhi will now be opening with 50% of the capacity and the number of
Delhi
people to attend the weddings and funerals has now risen up to 50. Along with this, the restaurants and bars will now be allowed to operate till 10 pm.
•Cinema halls, multiplexes, sports stadiums and gymnasiums allowed to open between 7 am and 9 pm
UP
•Restaurants, shopping malls to open at 50% /Unlock began from 1 Jun- Corona curfew was in place till 31 May/ Night curfew from 9pm – 7am/ weekend restrictions to continue
•Lockdown extended in Kodagu, Hassan. Places of worship allowed to open. Stadiums, sports complexes allowed. Allowed marriage functions in banquet halls, hotels, resorts from June 28 but
Karnataka
capped number of guests to 100, Gyms and parks were also allowed to function, The govt had allowed all shops other than those air-conditioned, to function
•Opening of cinema halls, multiplexes and auditoriums at 50% capacity, permitted shops to do business till 9 pm instead of 7 pm and allowed buses to ply at 75% of their seating capacity, Night
Gujarat
Curfew to Continue in 8 Municipal Corporations, Timing Reduced by 1 Hour in 18 Cities
Rajasthan •All religious places will be allowed to open from 5am to 4pm, offices with 25 or more employees will be allowed to open with 50 per cent workforce
•Lockdown (3 May-12 Jul)- Extended – with major relaxations – ICAI allowed to hold CA exams, allowed opening of university campuses for research scholars, All shops will continue to
Haryana
operate from 9am to 8pm; and restaurants and bars including those in hotels and malls will be allowed to open from 10am to 10pm with 50% seating capacity,
•Lockdown till 15 Jul- relaxations: Private and govt buses can operate with 50% strength, Markets can open between 6 to 12 pm, Salons, parlours can open between 11-6 pm (50% capacity),
WB
Gyms to open with 50% capacity between 6-10 am and 4-8 pm, Private and government offices will open between 10-4 pm with 50% strength
•Relaxations: Govt / private offices(50% capacity), All shops can remain open till 8 pm on weekday/ Cinema halls, bars, multiplexes and restaurants will be allowed to operate with 50 per cent
Jharkhand
capacity while stadiums, gymnasiums, and parks can be opened / Covid restrictions till further orders
Chhattisgarh •Lockdown extended till further orders / shops/cinema halls etc can open in districts with positivity rate lower than 5%
•Sunday Lockdown Lifted in Madhya Pradesh; Night Curfew To Remain in Place/ Those who want to open their shops, continue their economic activities, can do so in accordance with COVID-
MP
19 protocol
•Educational institutions (Universities, colleges, technical educational institutions, government training institutes and schools for classes 11 and 12) will open phase-wise after July 6 with 50%
Bihar
capacity / All government and private offices can operate for vaccinated, / restaurants at 50% capacity
•Relaxations: bars, pubs and „ahatas‟ will remain open at 50% capacity beginning from July 1
Punjab
•Lockdown like restrictions till 10 Jul
•Partial Lockdown till 16 Jul . Night curfew will continue across entire state, while weekend shutdown will remain in only 10 districts where test positivity is more than 5%. Twenty districts with
Odisha
test positivity rate below 5% (categorized A) will enjoy more relaxations
Kerala •Lockdown till 5 Jul / Triple lockdown will be enforced in places where test positivity rate (TPR) remains above 15%
•Relaxations - permitted film theatres, restaurants, gyms and function halls to operate by extending curfew relaxation period up to 10 pm from 6 am in 11 districts and up to 7 pm in twin districts
AP
of Godavari from July 8
•Lockdown 10 May-12Jul; Restaurants in Tamil Nadu have now been allowed to serve dine-in customers at 50% capacity, Has split its districts into three categories based on the COVID-19
TN
caseload and introduced relaxations accordingly – Tier 1 districts ave been provided with maximum relaxations allowing malls, gyms and places of worship, textiles and jewellery shops
Telangana •Schools, colleges to open from 1 July, has ordered "all branches to lift all types of regulations imposed during the lockdown in full extent”
J&K • Relaxations- all outdoor shops will be allowed to open on all days from 7 am to 7 pm/ no weekend curfew in 13 districts / Schools and Colleges to remain closed till July 15
•Covid Curfew 11 May-13 Jul- Extended / Relaxations -gyms and coaching centres will be allowed to function at 50% capacity. Malls to reopen at 50% capacity and markets to remain closed
Uttarakhand
on weekends
HP •Relaxations: allowed businesses to operate from 9 am to 8 pm / restaurants can operate till 10 pm/ E-pass to end from 1 July
Goa •Lockdown till 12 Jul – Extended / Relaxations: all stores and shops can operate in Goa from 7 am to 6 pm per day
•Lockdown (3 May - 15 Jul)- Extended / Relaxations:Religious places and places of worship will also be opened for the public for darshan till 9 pm, beach road, park, and gardens will be
Puducherry
opened for walkers till 9 pm on all days/ Bars and restaurants within the hotels, guest houses and lodges, and other standalone eateries are permitted to operate with 50 % caapcity
North East •Sikkim lockdown lifted (6 May-5 Jul), Nagaland (Unlock from 1 Jul), Mizoram lockdown eased (Aizwal- 7 May-30 Jun), Arunachal Pradesh (till 7 Jun), Manipur (10 districts-10 July)
14India: Indicators As far as economic activity is considered…
Congestion levels pick up in some major cities Pollution levels for select industrial areas higher in
this week Jul’21
Average Pollution Index (Select Industrial areas)
This year Last year 350 Manufacturing PMI- RHS 61
56% 56% 56% 300
52% 52% 52%
59
51% 51% 51%
46% 46%
250
46% 57
200
150 55
33%
26% 27% 27% 25%
24% 22% 24% 100 53
21%
19%
50 51
11%
5%
-
49
-50
47
22-Jun
27-Jun
04-Jul
22-Jun
27-Jun
04-Jul
22-Jun
27-Jun
04-Jul
22-Jun
27-Jun
04-Jul
-100
-150 45
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Jun-20
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-21
Apr-21
Apr-18
May-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
May-20
May-21
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Jan-18
Mar-18
Aug-18
Jan-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Pune
Source TomTom Index,- Taken for peak hours at 7pm; JM Financial, Last year stands for full year average Source: CMIE, JM Financial; *Average Pollution index on 500 at 11am on last day of the week: Navi Mumbai,
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Moradabad, Vishakhapatnam and Chennai in these regions- Airoli, Maninagar,
Talkatora, Lajpat Nagar, GVM Corporation and Manali
152-year CAGR in railway freight revenue in Jul‟21 higher;
Indicators: Industrial power consumption 2-year CAGR improves WoW
2-year CAGR* in railway freight revenue at 5.5% in 1st Power consumption 2-year CAGR at +4.4% in 1st week
week of Jul’21 vs. 2.4%YoY/2.5%YoY in Jun’21/May’21 of Jul’21 vs. -3.2% / -4.4% in Jun’21 / May-21
Railway Freight Revenue growth (2 year CAGR) 2-year CAGR Power consumption (Weekly sum)
Loading growth (2 year CAGR) LK* LK* LK* LK*
3 4
10% 1 2
10% 8%
6%
5%
4%
0% 2%
0%
-5% -2%
-4%
-10% -6%
-8%
-15%
-10%
-20% -12%
28-Feb-21
14-Feb-21
07-Jun-20
06-Jun-21
02-Aug-20
16-Aug-20
30-Aug-20
06-Dec-20
20-Dec-20
21-Jun-20
12-Apr-20
26-Apr-20
10-May-20
24-May-20
05-Jul-20
19-Jul-20
14-Mar-21
28-Mar-21
20-Jun-21
11-Apr-21
25-Apr-21
09-May-21
23-May-21
04-Jul-21
13-Sep-20
27-Sep-20
11-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
08-Nov-20
22-Nov-20
03-Jan-21
17-Jan-21
31-Jan-21
-25%
Sep-20
Apr-20
Apr-21
Aug-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Feb-20
Mar-20
Feb-21
1-5 Jul'21
Oct-19
Oct-20
Nov-19
Nov-20
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jan-20
Jan-21
Dec-19
May-20
Dec-20
May-21
Source: Rail drishti, JM Financial, Railway freight revenue YoY growth at 27.1% in Jun‟21 Source: POSOCO, JM Financial; LK* stands for Lockdown. YoY growth at 8.4% in Jun‟21
Base for 2019 has been taken as the monthly railway freight revenue reported by ministry of railways
16Daily avg. e-way bills 2-year CAGR improves in
Indicators: Industrial Jun‟21
2-year CAGR in daily average e-way bills at 2.4% in 1st
Capacity utilization levels
week of Jul’21 vs. 4.9% / -14.2% in Jun’21 / May’21
120
% PreCOVID April Now
80 E-way Bills (mn) 2 year CAGR (RHS) 20% 100
70 10%
80
60
0%
50 60
-10%
40
-20%
30 40
-30%
20
20
10 -40%
0 -50% -
Aug-20
Jan-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
1-4 Jul'21
May-20
Jun-20
Mar-21
May-21
Jun-21
2W CV Tractors Cement Steel- JSW Refineries Upstream Power
& Petchem companies
plants
Source: GST Network, JM Financial; YoY growth at 26% in Jun‟21 Source: JM Financial; As on 6 Jul‟21, Based on analyst interactions with companies, *Auto data
available till Apr‟21
17Indicators: Industrial Workplace mobility improves further to Oct‟20 levels
Mobility for workplaces down by 25% in the week
90% of INR 3trn sanctioned; Limit raised to INR 4.5trn
ending 1-Jul, vs. 28% before that
All India Maharashtra Delhi TN INR trn ECLGS
AP UP Karnataka
3.0 2.7
20 2.5
10 2.1
0
-10
2.0
-20
-30 1.5
-40
-50 1.0
-60
-70
-80 0.5
-90
0.0
01-Feb-21
01-Dec-20
01-Apr-20
01-May-20
01-Jul-20
01-Aug-20
01-Mar-21
01-Apr-21
01-Jun-20
01-May-21
01-Jul-21
01-Jun-21
01-Sep-20
01-Oct-20
01-Nov-20
01-Jan-21
Cumulative amount sanctioned Cumulative amount Disbursed
Source Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb‟20. * Mobility trends for Source Ministry of Finance, JM Financial, As in Jul‟21
places of work, *Weekly Average
18Indicators: Industrial 2-year CAGR in electronic toll collections lower in May‟21
National Electronic Toll Collections 2-year CAGR lower in May’21 vs. Apr’21
National Electronics Toll Collections - Volume (2 year CAGR)
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Jan-18
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
Mar-18
Jul-18
Mar-19
Jul-19
Mar-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Nov-18
Jan-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Nov-20
Source: NPCI, JM Financial
19Indicators: Consumption 2-year CAGR in vehicle registrations steady in Jul‟21
2-year CAGR in daily vehicle registrations improves
Number of all-India vehicle registrations better WoW
significantly for PVs
100%
Vehicle Registrations (2-Year CAGR)
14-Mar 21-Mar 30-Mar 05-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 80%
25-Apr 02-May 09-May 16-May 23-May 30-May
PV 2-Wheelers MHCV LCV
06-Jun 13-Jun 21-Jun 27-Jun 05-Jul 60%
387
363 40%
20%
0%
-20%
159
126 -40%
-60%
10 13 -80%
Vehicle No. of Revenue -100%
06-Jul-21
Sep-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Aug-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
May-20
Oct-19
Jun-20
May-21
Oct-20
Mar-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jun-19
Jun-21
Jul-19
Nov-19
Jul-20
registrations (in transactions (in collections (INR
000s) 10, 000s) bn)
Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial Source: vahan.parivahan.gov.in, JM Financial
202-year CAGR of property registrations in Maharashtra
Indicators: Consumption rises in Jun‟21, Air travel at early Oct‟20 levels
2-year CAGR in daily avg. property registrations in
Maharashtra at 11.9% in 1st week of Jul’21 vs. Daily airline departures, passengers pick up
12.8% / -26.9% in Jun’21 / May’21
No. of Passengers - RHS (7 Day MA)
2 year CAGR Average daily registration of property in Maharashtra excl Mumbai
2,700 No. of departures (7 Day MA) 3,20,000
80% Average daily registration of property in Mumbai
60% 2,70,000
40%
2,200
20% 2,20,000
0% 1,700
-20% 1,70,000
-40% 1,200
-60% 1,20,000
-80% 700
70,000
-100%
-120%
200 20,000
Dec-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Apr-21
Nov-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Feb-20
Jul-20
Jan-20
1-6 Jul'21
May-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
May-21
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
04 Aug 20
04 Dec 20
04 Jul 20
04 Mar 21
04 Jun 21
04 Jul 21
04 Sep 20
04 Apr 21
04 May 21
04 Oct 20
04 Jan 21
04 Nov 20
04 Feb 21
Source: igrmaharashtra.gov.in/, JM Financial; YoY growth stands at 79% in Jun‟21 for Maharashtra Source: Ministry of Civil Aviation, JM Financial
21All-India Google mobility trends for recreation improve
Indicators: Consumption to Oct‟20 levels; Unemployment declines in Jun‟21
CMIE’s unemployment rate declines to 9.2% in Jun’21
Mobility for retail and recreation* down by 31% in the
vs. 11.9% in May’21; Labour participation rate lower at
week ending 1-Jul vs. 36% in the week before that
39.6%
ALL INDIA Maharashtra Delhi TN
Unemployment Rate Labour force Participation Rate % (CMIE)
AP UP Karnataka 25 50
20
20
0 45
-20 15
-40 40
10
-60
-80 35
5
-100
01-Feb-21
01-Mar-21
01-Dec-20
01-Apr-20
01-Aug-20
01-Apr-21
01-Jun-20
01-Jun-21
01-May-20
01-Jul-20
01-Sep-20
01-May-21
01-Jul-21
01-Oct-20
01-Nov-20
01-Jan-21
0 30
Aug-20
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Apr-20
Dec-16
Jun-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-21
Jun-16
Oct-16
Jun-18
Oct-18
Jun-19
Oct-19
Jun-20
Oct-20
Jun-21
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Source: Google Mobility Reports, JM Financial ; Baseline: Median: 3Jan-6Feb‟20. *Weekly Average Source: CMIE, JM Financial
* Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, theme parks, museums, libraries, and
movie theatres.
22AePS cash withdrawal / volume of digital payments
Indicators: Consumption higher WoW
Aadhaar-enabled Payment System (AePS) cash
Volume of digital payments higher WoW
withdrawals higher WoW
INR bn AePS (through micro-ATMs / BCs) - Weekly Sum mn (mn)
Volume of Digital Payments (RTGS+AePS+NEFT+UPI+IMPS+NACH)
Vol (mn) Val (INR bn) - RHS 155.00
25 75
23 70 145.00
21 65 135.00
19 60 125.00
17 115.00
55
15
50 105.00
13
45 95.00
11
40 85.00
9
7 35 75.00
5 30 65.00
11-Feb-21
22-Feb-21
01-Jun-21
08-Aug-20
19-Aug-20
30-Aug-20
07-Dec-20
18-Dec-20
29-Dec-20
05-Mar-21
16-Mar-21
27-Mar-21
07-Apr-21
18-Apr-21
29-Apr-21
10-May-21
21-May-21
04-Jul-21
04-Nov-20
12-Jun-21
23-Jun-21
10-Sep-20
21-Sep-20
02-Oct-20
13-Oct-20
24-Oct-20
15-Nov-20
26-Nov-20
09-Jan-21
20-Jan-21
31-Jan-21
14-Mar-21
30-Mar-21
05-Oct-20
21-Oct-20
10-Feb-21
26-Feb-21
02-Aug-20
18-Aug-20
08-Dec-20
24-Dec-20
15-Apr-21
17-Jul-20
03-Sep-20
19-Sep-20
01-May-21
02-Jun-21
18-Jun-21
06-Nov-20
22-Nov-20
17-May-21
04-Jul-21
09-Jan-21
25-Jan-21
Source RBI, JM Financial, *Weekly Sum Source: RBI, JM Financial; 7-day moving average
23Incremental C-D Ratio falls to 39%; corporate spreads
Indicators: Monetary near pre-Covid levels
Credit-deposit ratio of commercial banks stood at 71% Corporate bond spreads remain near pre-Covid levels
on 18 Jun’21; incremental C-D ratio stood at 39%
bps
System CD Ratio Incremental CD Ratio - RHS 330 Corporate bond spreads: 1 year AA Corporate bond spreads: 3 year AA
300% 280
79%
77% 250%
230
75% 200%
71% 180
73% 150%
71% 130
100%
69% 39%
67% 50% 80
65% 0%
30
18-Mar-18
18-Mar-19
18-Mar-20
18-Mar-21
18-Jun-17
18-Dec-17
18-Jun-18
18-Dec-18
18-Jun-19
18-Dec-19
18-Jun-20
18-Dec-20
18-Jun-21
18-Sep-17
18-Sep-18
18-Sep-19
18-Sep-20
06-Jun-20
06-Jun-21
06-Feb-20
06-Feb-21
06-Mar-20
06-Apr-20
06-May-20
06-Jul-20
06-Aug-20
06-Dec-20
06-Mar-21
06-Apr-21
06-May-21
06-Jul-21
06-Sep-20
06-Oct-20
06-Nov-20
06-Jan-21
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial;
24NACH bounce rate in May‟21 higher; Retail stock trading
Indicators: Monetary turnover lower WoW
NACH bounce rate for recurring payments in May’21
Retail stock trading lower WoW; at last year’s levels
higher vs. Apr’21
Retail stock trading turnover- 7 day moving average (INR cr)
50 NACH Bounce rate for Recurring payments (EMI, Insurance 65000
premium etc) 60000
45 55000
40 50000
45000
35 40000
30 35000
30000
25 25000
20 20000
15000
May-19
May-18
May-20
May-21
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-20
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-21
05-Jun-20
05-Jun-21
05-Feb-20
05-Feb-21
05-Jul-21
05-Mar-20
05-Dec-20
05-Apr-20
05-May-20
05-Jul-20
05-Aug-20
05-Mar-21
05-Apr-21
05-May-21
05-Jan-20
05-Sep-20
05-Oct-20
05-Nov-20
05-Jan-21
Source NCPI, JM Financial Source MoneyControl, BSE, NSE, JM Financial
25Indicators: Rural Rainfall slows down, Wheat procurement healthy
After a strong start, rainfall has slowed down in last two
MSP based procurement - Wheat up by 11%, Rice also
weeks, likely to revive in a week as per IMD and not yet
up by 13%YoY
a concern
2020 2021 (mn tonne) Previous season Current season
120% 70
54 5657
60
100% 49 5051 52
50 454646
80% 38
40 3336 464748
4949 50
60% 28 4545
25 4041
30 21 37
40% 16 30
20 27
10
20% 2123
11% 10 3 1718
9%
11
0% 0 8
2
10Jan'21
19Mar'21
14Feb'21
28May'21
12Oct'20
29Oct'20
23Nov'20
3May'21
12May'21
20May'21
12Dec'20
27Dec'20
8Jun'21
27Jun'21
-2% -1%
-20%
1st 11th 21st 2nd 12th 22nd 1st 11th 21st 31st 10th 20th 30th
June June June July July July Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep
Source: Ministry of agriculture, JM Financial Source: Ministry of Agriculture,, JM Financial
26Tractor sales see a rebound; MGNREGA days growth
Indicators: Rural remains normal
Auto sales - Sales improved across categories, tractor MGNREGA efforts following normal pattern, May-
sales see sharper rebound June'21 materially below last year levels
% YoY MSIL PV % YoY HMCL 2W Person days (mn)
FY22 FY21 FY20
% YoY M&M tractor % YoY Escorts tractor FY19 FY18 FY17
100% 700
600
50%
500
0% 400
300
-50%
200
-100% 100
-
-150%
February
April
May
September
July
June
December
March
August
October
November
January
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Jan-20
Apr-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Mar-20
Oct-20
Mar-21
Feb-20
Jul-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-20
May-21
Source Company, JM Financial, Note: Apr-Jun'21 as compared to Jun'19 Source: nrega.nic.in, JM Financial
27Indicators: Rural Onion inflation remains high; mandi arrivals pick up
Onions inflation remains high Agri trading volume reverting to normalcy
Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2019 Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2020
YoY%
Arrivals (mn Tonne) - 2021
Rice Atta Potato Pulses Onion - RHS Tomato
120% 80% (mn Tn)
100% 60%
20
80%
18
40%
16
60%
20% 14
40%
0% 12
20%
-20% 10
0% 7.1
8
-20% -40%
6
-40% -60% 6.0
4
-60% -80% 2 4.3
02-Aug-20
23-Aug-20
04-Oct-20
25-Oct-20
07-Feb-21
28-Feb-21
02-May-21
23-May-21
12-Jul-20
15-Nov-20
04-Jul-21
21-Jun-20
06-Dec-20
27-Dec-20
13-Jun-21
17-Jan-21
13-Sep-20
21-Mar-21
11-Apr-21
0
Jan-Wk1
Jan-Wk2
Jan-Wk3
Jan-Wk4
May-Wk2
May-Wk1
May-Wk3
May-Wk4
Jun-Wk1
Jun-Wk2
Jun-Wk3
Jun-Wk4
Mar-Wk1
Mar-Wk2
Mar-Wk3
Mar-Wk4
Apr-Wk1
Apr-Wk2
Apr-Wk3
Apr-Wk4
Apr-Wk5
July-Wk1
Feb-Wk2
Feb-Wk3
Source: Department of Consumer Affairs, JM Financial Source: Argmarket, JM Financial
2870
71
72
74
75
76
73
77
06-Jan-20
1 year
06-Feb-20
Jun-21
06-Mar-20
Feb-21
06-Apr-20
3 year
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
06-May-20
India: Indicators
06-Jun-20
06-Jul-20
5 year
06-Aug-20
Apr-21
Mar-20
06-Sep-20
06-Oct-20
10 year
INR
06-Nov-20
06-Dec-20
06-Jan-21
…the INR stood at 74.6
Dec-20
May-21
15 year
06-Feb-21
06-Mar-21
Yield curve: bond yields higher in Jun-21
06-Apr-21
06-May-21 30 year
06-Jun-21
Jul-21
%
06-Jul-21
3.5
4.5
6.5
5.5
7.5
Other indicators…
15
25
35
45
65
75
85
55
06-Jan-20
-
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
06-Feb-20 05-Jan-20
USD bn
06-Mar-20 05-Feb-20
06-Apr-20 05-Mar-20
Source: Bloomberg, JM Financial
06-May-20 05-Apr-20
05-May-20
06-Jun-20
Debt
05-Jun-20
Equity
06-Jul-20
05-Jul-20
06-Aug-20
05-Aug-20
06-Sep-20 05-Sep-20
06-Oct-20 05-Oct-20
06-Nov-20 05-Nov-20
Oil- USD /bbl
06-Dec-20 05-Dec-20
05-Jan-21
06-Jan-21
05-Feb-21
06-Feb-21
05-Mar-21
Oil prices rise to USD 78/bbl
FII equity flows lower WoW
06-Mar-21
05-Apr-21
06-Apr-21
Cumulative FII flows (debt+ equity) since 1Jan'20
05-May-21
06-May-21 05-Jun-21
06-Jun-21 05-Jul-21
06-Jul-21
29Five-fold containment strategy till 31 Jul‟21
Unlock 1.0 : 1 - 8Jun'20
Allowed Hotels, restaurants and other hospitality services, Shopping malls / Religious places and places of worship for public
Night curfew 9 pm to 5 am: All India except essential activities
Shut Containment zones except essential activities
Allowed Intra-state and inter-state movement of people and goods. No pass necessary
Unlock 2.0 : 1Jul’20
Shut Inside containment zones, lockdown measures have been extended till July 31
Shut Schools, colleges and coaching institutions will remain closed till July 31
Shut Metro rail, cinema halls, gymnasiums, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres, bars
Allowed Shops outside containment zones can have more than five persons at a time
Flights Domestic flights will be further expanded while international air travel will continue in a limited manner under the Vande Bharat mission
Night curfew Timings are being further relaxed to 10 pm to 5 am
Unlock 3.0: 1Aug’20
Allowed Interstate travelling without restrictions
Allowed Opening of yoga institutes and gymnasiums from 5 Aug’20
Shut Schools, colleges, metro rail service, cinema halls, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres
Night curfew Removed
Unlock 4.0: 1 Sep’20
Allowed Metro rail services from 7 Sep’20
Allowed Social/academic/sports/entertainment/cultural/religious/political functions allowed with a cap of 100 people from 21 Sep’20
Allowed States, UTs may permit upto 50% of teaching, non-teaching staff to be called to school s / Students of Class 9-12 can visit schools on voluntary basis to clear doubts
Allowed Open air theatres from 21 Sep’20
Shut Schools/Colleges/Cinemas/Swimming Pools/Theatres/Entertainment Parks/International Travel
Lockdown No lockdown outside of containment zones (without govt.’s consultation)
Unlock 5.0: 1 Oct’20 / Unlock 6.0: 1 Nov’20
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Schools / Colleges allowed to reopen from 15 Oct with voluntary attendance (states have flexibility to decide)
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Allowed Entertainment parks permitted to open
Shut Ban on international commercial flights extended till 31 Oct
Unlock 7.0: 1 Dec’20 / Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Jan’21
Allowed Cinemas/ theatres/ multiplexes permitted to open with upto 50% capacity
Allowed Social/ religious/ sports/ entertainment/edu/cul/rel gatherings, with up to a maximum of 50 % of the hall capacity, with a ceiling of 200 persons in closed spaces
Allowed Swimming pools may be used for training of sportspersons
Shut Suspension of scheduled international flights till 31 Dec’20. but Vande Bharat Mission/travel bubbles will continue (UK flights banned till 7 Jan’21)
Lockdown States may impose local restrictions such as night curfews but cannot impose any local lockdown without consultation with the Centre
Guidelines for Surveillance 1 Feb’21/1-Mar’21/1Apr’21
Allowed Cinema halls/theatres can operate with more than 50% of capacity
Allowed Opening of swimming pools for all and exhibitions
States States can impose local curbs / "Test-Track-Treat“ - Each state and UT to ensure the proportion of RT-PCR tests is 70 per cent or more
Shut International flights banned till 30 Apr’21
Containment Guidelines 1-31 May’21 / 1-30 Jun’21
Shut Strictly implement containment measures in districts where either the test positivity is more than 10% in the past one week or where the bed occupancy is more than 60%
Shut Extended suspension of scheduled international flights till 30 Jun’21
Shut Shopping malls, cinema halls, restaurants, bars, sports complexes, spas, gyms, swimming pools, gatherings
Containment Guidelines 1-31 Jul’21
Five-fold strategy includes testing, tracking, treatment, vaccinating and adhering to COVID-appropriate behaviour, focus on micro-containment zones in cases of spike in
Five Fold Startegy
positivity rate, and issue relaxations only in a "calibrated" manner
30
Source News18, JM FinancialRefer to our other earlier tracker reports
1. The COVID-19 Files: Your weekly update on COVID-19 41. The Covid-19 Files | Covid cases rise again..
2. The COVID-19 Files: Unveiling relief measures 2.0 42. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases at 0.17mn, up 12% this week vs. 7% last week
3. The COVID-19 Files- End of fiscal stimulus in India? 43. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 12% this week to 0.19mn
4. The COVID Files- More economic indicators showing improvement 44. The Covid-19 Files | New cases rise but growth in some economic indicators
5. The COVID-19 Files-From Lockdown 4.0 to Unlock 1.0 better until mid-Mar’21 vs. Feb’21
6. The COVID-19 Files- Improvement in most economic indicators 45. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases rise by 53% this week
7. The COVID-19 Files- India now ranks 4th in the global COVID-19 cases 46. The Covid-19 Files | New daily cases rise above previous peak in some states
8. The COVID-19 Files: India COVID-19 cases cross 0.4mn mark 47. The Covid-19 Files | New cases under 2nd wave now higher than previous peak
9. The COVID-19 Files: Daily growth in cases inches up 48. The Covid-19 Files | Additional Lockdowns? The interplay between the 2nd
10. The Covid-19 Files | India replaces Russia as 3rd worse-hit COVID-19 nation COVID-19 wave, vaccination & health infra
11. The Covid-19 Files | Improvement in consumption indicators flattening? 49. The Covid-19 Files | All above 18 eligible for vaccine from 1 May’21
12. The COVID-19 Files: Cases in India cross the 1mn mark 50. The Covid-19 Files | Mortalities surge almost 100% this week
13. The COVID-19 Files: Daily cases growth surges back to 3.7% 51. The COVID-19 Files: The Indian economy not in the worst place
14. The COVID-19 Files: Unlock 3.0 begins 52. The COVID-19 Files- Some positivity amid the gloom
15. The COVID-19 Files: Covid cases growth moderating, recovery remains gradual 53. The COVID-19 Files | Daily cases fall below 0.3mn after almost a month
16. The COVID-19 Files: Consumption indicators hold up momentum for 3rd consecutive 54. The COVID-19 Files| Despite being replete with lockdowns, May'21 economic
week indicators better than last year
17. The COVID-19 Files: Peaking awaited: Growth in new cases slows further 55. The COVID-19 Files| More positive news on COVID situation, google mobility
18. The COVID-19 files - Unlock 4.0 begins begins exhibiting improvement
19. The COVID-19 files - India overtakes Brazil as the second worst-hit COVID-19 nation 56. The COVID-19 Files- Economic indicators exhibit improvement in the 1st week of
20. The COVID-19 files - Slower testing, delayed peaking & lagging recovery June amid relaxations in curbs
21. The COVID-19 files - Slight moderation in India’s new cases trajectory 57. The COVID-19 Files | States relax restrictions
22. The COVID-19 Files - Temporary peaking for India? 58. The COVID-19 Files- New vaccine policy begins with record high inoculations
23. The Covid-19 Files - Unlock 5.0: Seemingly peaking trajectory vs. slowing testing growth 59. The COVID-19 Files- Some elements of concern reappearing amid the otherwise
24. The Covid-19 Files | Sustained recovery in indicators continues calm all-India COVID-19 situatio
25. The Covid-19 Files | Growth in daily cases falls below 1%
26. The Covid-19 Files | Daily cases continue to taper off
27. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 6 begins
28. The Covid-19 Files | Third wave in Delhi hindering decline in the all-India daily case
growth
29. The COVID-19 Files | Fresh waves of infections & cooling momentum in recovery?
30. The COVID-19 Files | Unlock 7.0
31. The Covid-19 Files | Can we hope for a better December?
32. The Covid-19 Files | Active cases fall to mid-Jul’20 levels
33. The Covid-19 Files | New coronavirus variant in UK: Renewed trouble for the world?
34. The Covid-19 Files | The COVID-19 Files- India's new cases lowest since Jun'20
35. The Covid-19 Files | India approves two vaccines
36. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive to begin from 16 Jan’21
37. The Covid-19 Files | Vaccination drive begins..
38. The Covid-19 Files | World’s fastest vaccination roll-out; Active cases at Jun’20 levels
39. The Covid-19 Files | Globally new cases on the downward trajectory, economic recovery
steady
40. The Covid-19 Files | Steady growth in economic indicators for Feb’21 so far
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