Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US$2.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek

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Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

                                      How the Pandemic
                                      Widened Global Current
                                      Account Balances
ÉDITION 357 – VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021      L’HEBDOMADAIRE       DIGITAL GRATUIT
                                            L’ HEBDOMADAIRE ÉLECTRONIQUE GRATUIT

 Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021

 Vaccine inequity
 will cost the global
 economy US$2.3trn
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
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Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                     3

                                                              LA TOUR

                                              Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021

      Vaccine inequity will
    cost the global economy
           US$2.3trn
  Delays in inoculating the world against the coronavirus will come with a high price tag. An exclusive report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
finds that those countries that will not have 60% of their population vaccinated by mid-2022 will register GDP losses totalling US$2.3trn by 2025
                                                                                                                                    Cont’d on page 4
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                                                     4

                                                                                      LA TOUR

O                                                   Delayed vaccination
                nly around 18 months after                                                           vaccine doses to developed economies this          Tourism flows could also be re-routed.
                the coronavirus (Covid-19)                                                           year. It has, to date, shipped only around      Unvaccinated people are often barred from
                pandemic began, vaccina-            timelines will cost                              210m doses (sufficient to inoculate just 15%    entering vaccinated countries or are forced
                tion campaigns are in full          the global economy                               of the population of lower-income econo-        to quarantine for long periods of time upon
                swing in advanced econ-             US$2.3trn in 2022-25                             mies). Some developed economies, notably        arrival. Conversely, travellers from vaccinat-
omies. As at late August, around 60% of                                                              the UK and Canada, chose to order jabs          ed countries may prove reluctant to visit un-
the population of higher-income countries              Beyond ethical concerns, delays in vacci-     from COVAX, compounding COVAX’s                 vaccinated (and often poorer) destinations in
had received at least one dose of corona-           nating the global population will come at a      woes; in late June the UK received 539,000      the future. A third set of consequences will
virus vaccine (full vaccination generally re-       high cost. The Economist Intelligence Unit       doses of vaccine from COVAX (this was           be political: resentment in emerging coun-
quires two doses). By contrast, vaccination         has developed a model that indicates that        more than double the amount of vaccines         tries, both against local governments (which
campaigns are progressing at a glacial pace         those countries that will vaccinate less than    that COVAX sent to Africa in that month).       are seen as unable to provide much-needed
in lower-income economies. At the same              60% of their population by mid-2022 will            Despite flattering press releases and gen-   vaccines) and richer states (which are per-
point, only 1% of poorer populations had            register GDP losses totalling US$2.3trn in       erous promises, donations from rich coun-       ceived to be hoarding vaccines) is running
received at least one dose of a vaccine. To         2022-25 (roughly equivalent to the annual        tries have also covered only a fraction of      high. Bouts of social unrest are highly likely
put this in context, rich countries have ad-        GDP of France). Emerging countries will          requirements—and, often, they are not even      in the coming months and years.
ministered 100 times as many vaccines as            shoulder around two-thirds of these loss-        delivered. To date, the UK has delivered
have poorer states.                                 es, further delaying their economic conver-      only around 10% of the 100m doses it has
                                                    gence with more developed countries. In          promised to donate to developing countries      Russia’s vaccine
A combination of                                    absolute terms, Asia will be by far the most     by mid-2022. Finally, the focus in developed    diplomacy has, to date,
factors is fuelling                                 severely affected continent (with cumulative     economies is gradually shifting towards vac-
                                                                                                     cinating children and administering booster
                                                                                                                                                     been a failure
vaccine inequity                                    projected losses of US$1.7trn). As a share
                                                    of GDP, countries in sub-Saharan Africa          doses to the general population, which will        Vaccine inequity is also fuelling vaccine
                                                    will register the highest losses (totalling 3%   compound shortages of raw materials and         diplomacy. Since the start of 2021, China
   Vaccine inequity has arisen owing to a           of the region’s forecast GDP in 2022-25).        production bottlenecks. The US will start
combination of factors. The first issue re-                                                                                                          and Russia have sent hundreds of millions
                                                    These estimates are striking but they only       the widespread administration of third dos-     of coronavirus jabs to emerging countries
lates to a global shortage of raw materials         partially capture missed economic oppor-         es of vaccines in September.
and limited production capacities, especial-                                                                                                         as part of a “vaccine diplomacy” operation.
                                                    tunities, especially in the long term. For in-                                                   Eight months after they started, the results
ly in developing countries (many emerging           stance, our model does not account for the
states initially relied on supplies from India,     impact of lockdowns on schooling—there           Vaccine inequity will                           of these operations have been mixed. De-
                                                                                                                                                     spite aggressive media campaigns highlight-
but Indian authorities have since begun to
retain these for domestic use).
                                                    is often no such thing as remote learning in     reshape the global                              ing Russia’s commitment to coming to the
   Financing is another constraint; few de-
                                                    developing economies.                            political and social                            rescue of developing countries, Russia’s vac-
veloping countries can afford the vaccines,                                                          landscape                                       cine diplomacy has, to date, been a failure.
especially if they are already struggling to        The rich-poor divide                                                                                Production difficulties have delayed the
provide crucial basic services such as clean        over access to                                      Vaccine inequity will have serious long-
                                                                                                     term consequences. The most obvious is
                                                                                                                                                     delivery of second shots of the Russian-de-
                                                                                                                                                     veloped Sputnik V vaccine, fuelling resent-
water. Logistics also represent a barrier:
shipping and storing vaccines requires ad-          vaccines may well                                related to the economic impact of the lack      ment in local populations. In Argentina,
equate transport infrastructure and cold            widen                                            of access to vaccines in poorer states. Our     these delivery delays have led to a bitter dip-
chains. Many developing countries also lack                                                          forecasts show that timelines for economic      lomatic row between the two governments.
the healthcare personnel to administer shots.         There is little chance that the divide over    recovery will be longer in poorer economies     In addition, a lack of transparency over
Finally, vaccine hesitancy is not solely a first-   access to vaccines will ever be bridged. CO-     than in advanced ones. This is due, in part,    clinical data, and doubts around the quality
world problem; the population of many               VAX, the WHO-sponsored initiative to ship        to our expectation that social-distancing       of some batches of the vaccine (in Slova-
developing countries, including Ukraine, Vi-        vaccines to emerging economies, has failed       measures will sometimes need to be re-im-       kia, for example), have increased hesitancy
etnam and India, also exhibit high levels of        to live up to (modest) expectations. The         posed in countries where vaccination rates      towards the (to date, non-WHO approved)
mistrust of vaccines.                               programme is supposed to deliver 1.9bn           remain low.                                     Russian-made vaccine.
                                                                                                                                                                                  Cont’d on page 4
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                                                       5

                                                                                  LA TOUR
                                                                                                                                                       the Delta variant, means that the global vac-
                                                                                                                                                       cination threshold to achieve herd immunity
                                                                                                                                                       (whereby a virus disappears for lack of peo-
                                                                                                                                                       ple to infect) now stands at around 90%, up
                                                                                                                                                       from 60-70% previously. Such a high immu-
                                                                                                                                                       nisation rate appears unachievable in devel-
                                                                                                                                                       oped countries (owing to vaccine hesitancy),
                                                                                                                                                       let alone in developing ones (owing to vac-
                                                                                                                                                       cine inequity).
                                                                                                                                                          In the meantime, there have been only a
                                                                                                                                                       handful of breakthroughs in terms of coro-
                                                                                                                                                       navirus treatments (although incremental im-
                                                                                                                                                       provements in medical protocols have helped
                                                                                                                                                       to push down mortality rates in developed
                                                                                                                                                       countries). This has two main implications.
                                                                                                                                                       First, the principal goal of vaccination pro-
                                                                                                                                                       grammes may no longer be to reach herd
                                                                                                                                                       immunity. Instead, vaccination may seek—
                                                                                                                                                       more modestly—to reduce the risk of severe
                                                                                                                                                       symptoms, hospitalisation and death. Sec-
                                                                                                                                                       ond, the pandemic is likely to remain prev-
                                                                                                                                                       alent for several more years in an endemic
                                                                                                                                                       form; living with the virus will become the
                                                                                                                                                       new normal.

                                                                                                                                                       Governments need to
China is busy sending                           different brands of vaccines (as Thailand is      navirus infection. As such, vaccines are a cru-      reconsider their long-
jabs to developing                              doing). For these countries, the total vaccine    cial first step in the fight against the pandemic.   term Covid strategies
                                                bill may prove higher than expected—and              However, some features of the Delta var-
states, but this comes                          in some cases unaffordable. The second has        iant mean that vaccines alone may not be                The future endemic nature of the virus
with risks                                      to do with vaccine passports; most Western        enough to control the virus. Delta is far more       means that some governments will have to
                                                countries do not recognise inoculation with       transmissible than the original strain of the        revisit their public health strategies. The ze-
   By contrast, China’s vaccine diplomacy       Chinese jabs. This will hinder travel, further    coronavirus (someone infected with Delta             ro-Covid approach that several countries (in-
has been a success. Despite its huge popu-      widening the divide between richer and poor-      contaminates another 5-9 people, compared            cluding Australia, China and New Zealand)
lation, the country has managed to vaccinate    er economies.                                     with 2-3 from the original strain). In addi-         have adopted is unlikely to be sustainable in
residents at a fast pace (China is on track                                                       tion, even vaccinated people appear to have          the long term. Such policies represent a fu-
to reach 70% immunisation by end-2021),         The Delta variant of                              high viral loads, raising the risk that they may     ture missed economic opportunity if the rest
while becoming the world’s largest exporter     coronavirus means that                            spread the disease (although vaccination ap-
                                                                                                  pears to be cutting down the period of time
                                                                                                                                                       of the world re-opens, as they imply the im-
of vaccines. However, this impressive feat
comes with a warning for those countries        vaccination will not                              in which people are infectious, reducing con-
                                                                                                                                                       position of stringent lockdowns as soon as
                                                                                                                                                       any cases of coronavirus are detected.
that depend on Chinese vaccines: some of        be enough                                         tagion). Israel, which has one of the highest           By contrast, some countries, such as the
these shots appear to offer lower levels of                                                       immunisation rates in the world, illustrates         UK, have already decided that suppressing
protection than Western jabs. The Seychelles,     The emergence of the Delta variant of the       how Delta is a game changer; after hope that         the disease is not possible (the UK lifted all
which had vaccinated the majority of its pop-   coronavirus, which is now dominant across         the disease was under control, the country is        coronavirus-related restrictions in July). Over
ulation with China’s Sinopharm vaccine, had     the world, means that vaccination may not         now grappling with a fourth wave of cases.           the past year, political leaders have been busy
to re-impose a lockdown in June.                prove to be the magic bullet that many gov-                                                            responding to short-term emergencies, such
                                                ernments hoped for. All WHO approved
   The lower efficacy rate of Chinese vac-
cines poses two risks. The first is that the    vaccines offer protection against infections,     With Delta, the global                               as rapid accelerations in infection rates. They
                                                                                                                                                       now need to design a longer-term strategy to
countries that relied on Chinese shots may      severe disease and death. Data from France,       herd-immunity threshold                              tackle the coronavirus. Here, again, the rich
need to administer boosters (a strategy that    for example, show that vaccinated people are      looks unattainable                                   poor contrast will be stark: vaccinated, richer
Chile, which mostly used China’s Sinovac        around ten times less likely to be admitted to                                                         states will have choices, while unvaccinated,
vaccine, is currently implementing) or mix      an intensive care unit as the result of a coro-     A more aggressive virus, in the form of            poorer ones will not.
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                                                    6

                                                                          ACTA PUBLICA
                                                                                 AFGHANISTAN’S FALL

 A Reminder of the Limits
   of American Power in
      The Middle East
 Amid intense criticism, Jo Biden addressed a press conference. Defending his decision to pull out of Afghanistan, he said the US is pulling off “one
  of the largest, most difficult airlifts in history.” He tried to put an optimistic face on the chaotic evacuations at Kabul’s airport as American forces
 scramble to remove US citizens and vulnerable Afghans from Afghanistan. Regardless, the writing is on the wall. The manner in which the Ameri-
 cans pulled out of Afghanistan is a disaster, a fiasco unlike any other in history. Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban is a reminder of the limits of Amer-
  ican power in the Middle East. New players, supporting the Taliban, are emerging as regional players. The Russians and the Chinese are making

I
                            advances; Turkey, Iran and Pakistan are making their moves, trying to emerge as regional players
        n the 19th century, the phrase “The       stand by its commitments has been shaken,
        Great Game” was used to describe          if not shattered – will find that its authority
        competition for power and influence       will be much questioned.
        in Afghanistan, and neighbouring             This comes at a time when China and
        central and south Asia territories, be-   Russia are testing American resolve globally.
tween the British and Russian empires.            In the region itself, Turkey and Iran are al-
   Neither side prevailed in what became          ready seeking to fill a vacuum exposed by an
known as the “graveyard of empires”.              American failure.
   Two centuries later, an American super-           Beijing and Moscow, for their own rea-
power has been reminded of a similar re-          sons, have an interest in Afghanistan’s fu-
ality.                                            ture. For China, that goes beyond just shar-
   The Afghanistan debacle, in which a            ing a border, while for Russia it is historical
300,000-strong US-trained and equipped            concerns about Afghan extremism infecting
Afghan army collapsed in hours serves as a        its own Muslim populations and those of
reminder of the limits of American power          nation states on its periphery.
in the wider Middle East.                            Recently, China has been cultivating Tal-
   US President Joe Biden may be endur-           iban leaders. Its foreign minister Wang Yi
ing the sharpest criticism for a disastrous-      held a well-publicised meeting with the Af-
ly executed withdrawal. But there is plenty       ghan Taliban’s political chief Mullah Abdul
of blame to go around, dating back to the         Ghani Baradar last month.
original ill-fated decision to “nation build”        Then there is Pakistan, which has sup-
a country that has resisted outside interfer-     ported the Taliban both covertly and overt-
ence for thousands of years.                      ly over the years. Islamabad will see in the
   After the fall of Kabul and the hasty US       American extreme discomfort opportunities         a cornerstone of the Biden administration’s      with the Taliban.
withdrawal from a country on which it had         for itself to assume a more significant re-       efforts to engage more constructively in the        In Saudi Arabian foreign policy, Afghani-
squandered US$1 trillion, the question re-        gional role.                                      Middle East.                                     stan is not a zero sum game.
mains: what next for the Middle East?                This is not to forget Pakistan’s close ties       Progress has been faltering. The election        More generally, the hit to US standing in
   This is a question whose arc stretches         to China, and its fractious relationship with     of a new hardline Iranian president further      the region will be worrying for its moderate
from Morocco in the west to Pakistan in the       the United States.                                complicates efforts to achieve compromise.       Arab allies. This includes Egypt and Jordan.
east, from Turkey in the north down into             In Afghanistan itself, the Taliban may live    Failure to resuscitate the JCPOA, aban-          For both, with their own versions of the
the Gulf and across to the Horn of Africa.        up to its undertakings that it has changed        doned by President Donald Trump, will add        Taliban lurking in the shadows, events in
   Every corner of the Middle East and            and that it will seek to establish consensus      a new layer of uncertainty – and risk – to       Afghanistan are not good news.
North Africa will be touched in some way          rule in a country riven by bloody ethnic and      Middle East calculations.                           The Taliban success in Afghanistan will
by the failure of American authority in Af-       tribal divisions.                                    There will have been no more interest-        also have implications for the most combus-
ghanistan, the longest war in its history.           Given early indications of brutal Tali-        ed party in developments in neighbouring         tible corner of the Middle East. In both Iraq
   America’s reckoning is also shared by its      ban reprisals against its enemies and the         Afghanistan than the leadership in Tehran.       and parts of Syria where the US maintains a
NATO allies and countries like Australia.         panicked reaction of shell-shocked Afghan         Iran’s relationship with the Taliban has been    military presence, the American exit will be
Australia’s ill-considered participation in an    population it would take a leap of faith to       fraught at times, cooperative at others, given   unsettling.
open-ended commitment to Afghanistan              believe much has changed.                         the anxiety in Tehran over mistreatment of          In Lebanon, which has become to all
should attract censure.                                                                             Afghanistan’s Shia population.                   intents and purposes a failed state, the Af-
                                                  What implications will it                            Shia Iran and the Sunni fundamentalist        ghanistan debacle will be adding to the
A new Saigon?                                     have in the Middle East?                          Taliban are not natural partners.                gloom.
                                                                                                       Further afield, the latest developments          Israel will be calculating the implications
  Inevitably, comparisons are being made                                                            in Afghanistan will be capturing the close       of the setback suffered by its principal ally.
                                                     Will the al-Qaeda and Islamic State fran-
between America’s panicky withdrawal from                                                           attention of Gulf states. Qatar has provid-      Increased Middle East instability would not
                                                  chises be allowed to re-establish themselves
Kabul and similar scenes in Saigon, 46 years                                                        ed a diplomatic haven for the Taliban dur-       seem to be to Israel’s advantage.
                                                  in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan? Will
ago.                                                                                                ing peace talks with the vanquished Ghani           In this next phase, America will no doubt
                                                  the Taliban re-emerge as a state sponsor of
  In some respects, the Afghan situation is                                                         government. This peace initiative, under US      pull back from all but its most pressing Mid-
                                                  terrorism? Will it continue to allow Afghan-
more concerning because so much of the                                                              auspices, is now revealed to have been a foil    dle East commitments. This will be a time
                                                  istan to be used as a giant market garden in
Middle East is at risk of descending into                                                           for the Taliban’s ambitions to return to pow-    for it to reflect on what lessons might be
                                                  the opium trade?
chaos.                                                                                              er in its own right.                             learned from the painful Afghanistan expe-
                                                     In other words, will the Taliban change
  The defeat of the South Vietnamese                                                                   How any reasonable observer could have        rience.
                                                  its ways and behave in such a manner that
army in 1975 might have influenced devel-                                                           believed otherwise is confounding.                  One lesson that should be paramount as
                                                  it does not constitute a threat to its neigh-
opments in the neighbouring states of In-                                                                                                            far as America and its allies are concerned:
                                                  bours, and the region more generally?
do-China, but fallout was largely contained.         From America’s perspective, its exit from      One lesson that should                           fighting “failed state” wars is a losing prop-
  Afghanistan is different in the sense that      Afghanistan leaves its attempts to breathe        be paramount                                     osition.
while America’s credibility and self-confi-       life into the nuclear deal with Iran as its
dence was battered in Vietnam, it remained        main piece of unfinished Middle East busi-          Saudi Arabia will be unsettled by devel-                               TONY WALKER
the dominant military force in the western        ness – if we put aside the seemingly intracta-    opments of the past few days because it is               A Friend of The Conversation.
Pacific before China’s rise.                      ble Israel-Palestine dispute.                     not in Riyadh’s interests for American au-           Vice-chancellor’s fellow, La Trobe
  In the Middle East, a diminished Wash-             Attempts to revive the Joint Comprehen-        thority in the region to be undermined. But                                   University
ington – in which confidence in its ability to    sive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have formed           the Saudis have their own longstanding links                                 21.08.2021
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                                    7

                                                             POST SCRIPTUM
MARTIN KAUFMAN,               ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Assistant Director in the

                              How the Pandemic
IMF’s Strategy, Policy and
Review Department

DANIEL LEIGH,

                              Widened Global Current
Division Chief in the IMF’s
Research Department.

                              Account Balances
                              2020 was a year of extremes. Travel all but ceased for a period. Oil prices wildly fluctuated.
                              Trade in medical products reached new heights. Household spending shifted to consumer goods
                              rather than services and savings ballooned as people stayed home amid a global shutdown

                              E
                                           xceptional policy support            While external deficits and surpluses are not
                                           prevented a global economic
                                           depression, even as the pandemic
                                                                                necessarily a cause for concern, excessive
                                                                                imbalances—larger than warranted by the
                                                                                                                                   The outlook
                                           took a heavy toll on lives and       economy’s fundamentals and appropriate
                                                                                                                                   Global current account balances are set to
                                           livelihoods. The global reaction,    economic policies—can have destabilizing
                                                                                                                                   widen even further in 2021 but this trend
                              as seen in major shifts in travel, consumption,   effects on economies by fueling trade tensions
                                                                                                                                   is not expected to last. The latest IMF staff
                              and trade, also made the world a more             and increasing the likelihood of disruptive
                                                                                                                                   forecasts indicate that global current account
                              economically imbalanced place as reflected        asset price adjustments.
                                                                                                                                   balances will narrow in the coming years,
                              in current account balances—a record of a
                              country’s transactions with the rest of the       A year like no other                               as China’s surplus and the US’ deficit falls,
                                                                                                                                   reaching 2.5 percent of world GDP by 2026.
                              world.
                                                                                                                                   A reduction in balances could be delayed if
                              In our latest External Sector Report we found     The dramatic fluctuations in current account       large deficit economies like the US undertake
                              that the global reaction to the pandemic          deficits and surpluses in 2020 were driven by      additional fiscal expansions or there is a
                              further widened global current account            four major pandemic-fueled trends:                 faster-than-expected fiscal adjustment in
                              balances—the sum of absolute deficits and         • Travel declined: The pandemic led to a           current account surplus countries, like
                              surpluses among all countries—from 2.8                sharp decrease in tourism and travel. This     Germany. A resurgence of the pandemic and
                              percent of world GDP in 2019 to 3.2 percent           had a significant negative impact on the       a tightening of global financial conditions
                              of GDP in 2020. Those balances are set to             account balances of countries that rely on     that disrupt the flow of capital to emerging
                              widen further as the pandemic continues to            tourism revenue, such as Spain, Thailand,      markets and developing economies could also
                              rage in much of the world.                            Turkey, and even larger consequences for       affect balances.
                              If not for the crisis, global current account         smaller tourism-dependent economies.           Despite the shock of the crisis and possibly
                              balances would have continued to decline.         • Oil demand collapsed: The collapse in oil        due to its worldwide impact, excessive
                                                                                    demand and energy prices was relatively        current account deficits and surpluses were
                                                                                    short lived, with oil prices recovering in     broadly unchanged in 2020, representing
                                                                                    the second half of 2020. However, oil-         about 1.2 percent of world GDP. Most of
                                                                                    exporting economies, such as Saudi Arabia      the drivers of excess external imbalances
                                                                                    and Russia, saw current account balances       pre-date the pandemic and include fiscal
                                                                                    decline sharply in 2020. Oil-importing         imbalances as well as structural and
                                                                                    countries saw corresponding increases to       competitiveness distortions.
                                                                                    their oil trade balances.
                                                                                • Medical products trade boomed: Demand
                                                                                    surged by about 30 percent for medical         Rebalancing the world
                                                                                    supplies critical for fighting the pandemic,   economy
                                                                                    such as personal protective equipment, as
                                                                                    well as the inputs and materials to make       Ending the pandemic for everyone in the
                                                                                    them, with implications for importers and      world is the only way to ensure a global
                                                                                    exporters of these items.                      economic recovery that prevents further
                                                                                • Household consumption shifted: As                divergence. This will require a global effort
                                                                                    people were forced to stay home,               to help countries secure financing for
                                                                                    households shifted their consumption           vaccinations and maintain healthcare.
                                                                                    away from services toward consumer             A synchronized global investment push or
                                                                                    goods. This happened most in advanced          a synchronized health spending push to end
                                                                                    economies where there was an increase          the pandemic and support the recovery could
                                                                                    in the purchase of durable goods like          have large effects on world growth without
                                                                                    electrical appliances used to accommodate      raising global balances.
                                                                                    teleworking and virtual learning.              Governments should step up efforts to resolve
                                                                                All of these factors contributed to some           trade and technology tensions and modernize
                                                                                countries seeing a wider current account           international taxation. A top priority should
                                                                                deficit, meaning they bought more than they        be the phasing out of tariff and non-tariff
                                                                                sold, or a larger current account surplus,         barriers, especially on medical products.
                                                                                meaning they sold more than they bought.           Countries with excess current account
                                                                                Favorable global financial conditions, with        deficits should, where appropriate, seek to
                                                                                the unprecedented monetary policy support          reduce budget deficits over the medium term
                                                                                from major central banks, made it easier for       and make competitiveness-raising reforms,
                                                                                countries to finance wider current account         including in education and innovation
                                                                                deficits. In contrast, during past crises where    policies. In economies with excess current
                                                                                financial conditions sharply tightened,            account surpluses and remaining fiscal
                                                                                running current account deficits was harder,       space, policies should support the recovery
                                                                                pushing countries further into recession.          and medium-term growth, including
                                                                                On top of these external factors, the pandemic     through greater public investment.
                                                                                led to massive government borrowing to             In the years to come, countries will need to
                                                                                finance health care and provide economic           simultaneously rebalance, while ensuring
                                                                                support to households and firms, creating          that the recovery is built on a solid and
                                                                                large uneven effects on trade balances.            durable foundation.

                                                                                                                                                              Cont’d on page 8
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                      8

                                                       POST SCRIPTUM
MARIANO MOSZORO,
Senior Economist in
the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs
Department
                           Economic Activity: Putting
                           Public Investment to Work
                           For countries on the path to recovery, reviving economic activity is a major priority. And
                           what better way to support a come-back than by creating jobs. Our new IMF staff research
                           shows that when governments spend on infrastructure, they create many new jobs
                           Drawing on a 19-year dataset of over 5,600      that number falls to around 8.
                           construction companies from 27 advanced         In advanced economies, $1 million of
                           economies and 14 emerging market                spending can generate an average of 3 jobs
                           economies, we use an innovative approach        in schools and hospitals and over 6 jobs in
                           to measure the direct employment effect         the energy sector, assuming intermediate
                           of $1 million of infrastructure spending        labor mobility and labor intensity levels.
                           by country income group and sector—             In low-income developing countries, the
                           electricity, roads, schools, hospitals, and     estimates are much larger and range from
                           water and sanitation. Because there is no       16 jobs in roads to 30 jobs in water and
                           data available for low-income developing        sanitation. Put differently, each unit of
                           countries, we estimate the employment           public infrastructure investment creates
                           impact by extrapolating from advanced           more direct jobs in electricity in high-       agricultural pumps and recycling.
                           economies and emerging market economies.        income countries and more jobs in water        Investment in research and development
                           Our latest chart of the week shows average      and sanitation in low-income countries.        can also create jobs—though mostly,
                           estimates, by sector, of the number of                                                         if not exclusively—for high-skilled
                           jobs that additional investments create         The benefits of investing in                   workers. Despite it being a much smaller
                           along the supply chain. The amount of job       renewables and innovation                      component of public investment—mostly
                           creation depends on labor mobility—how                                                         to government institutions and higher
                           easy it is to move across companies within      The impact could be higher for green           education—around 4 jobs are created in
                           sectors—and labor intensity—defined as          investment, in part because many jobs in       R&D per $1 million invested.
                           the labor effects down the supply chain in a    renewables do not require much education       These results indicate that public spending
                           sector. For example, in an emerging market      beyond high school and have low barriers to    on infrastructure can make a meaningful
                           economy with high labor mobility and high       entry. Per $1 million invested, around 5–10    contribution to job creation. Overall, one
                           labor intensity, around 35 jobs are created     jobs could be created in green electricity,    percent of global GDP in public investment
                           in water and sanitation per $1 million of       2–12 jobs in efficient new buildings like      spending can create more than seven million
                           additional investment. In a country with        schools and hospitals, and 5–14 in green       jobs worldwide through direct employment
                           low labor mobility and low labor intensity,     water and sanitation through efficient         effects alone.

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                                                                          Official online directory of Mauritius Telecom

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Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                                                          9

                                                                                              DEBRIEF
WEBINAIRE ACCA / MIOD : « DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE ET PRODUCTIVITÉ »

         Données, ressources
         et nouvel état d’esprit
         nécessaires pour une
          indispensable mise
            en œuvre rapide
  Le bureau mauricien de l’Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) et
 le Mauritius Institute of Directors (MIoD) ont organisé le 19 août 2021 un webinaire
  sur le thème « Développement durable et pro ductivité », destiné aux membres de ces
 deux organisations professionnelles et du monde des affaires. Les participants étaient :
                                                                                                                                 Quand Mégane Salmon prend
  Jacqueline Sauzier, secrétaire générale de la Chambre d’Agriculture de Maurice, Mar-
                                                                                                                                 le contrôle des réseaux sociaux
    co Dusso, Principal (Climate Action & Innovation) de la firme internationale Bos-                                            du Sugar Beach
                                                                                                                                    Depuis le 14 août, le Sugar Beach accueille Mégane Salmon,
   ton Consulting Group ; Philippe Espitalier-Noël, CEO du groupe Rogers, et André                                               une entrepreneure française de 25 ans. Passionnée par les voy-
    Bonieux, CEO d’Alteo Ltd. Madhavi Ramdin-Clark, Head of ACCA Mauritius et                                                    ages, l’océan et la mode, Mégane vit à Maurice depuis 6 ans.
                                                                                                                                 Après un retour dans son pays natal en juillet dernier, Mégane
  Sheila Ujoodha, CEO du MIoD, intervenaient comme organisatrices et facilitatrices                                              est rentrée à Maurice et effectue son séjour au Sugar Beach, hôtel
                                      de l’événement                                                                             5* certifié ‘COVID-19 safe’ pour le « in-resort stay ». Pour elle,

L
                                                                                                                                 être dans ce resort réputé de la côte ouest « est une opportunité
         a nécessité d’une mise en œuvre rapide de poli-                                                                         incroyable de partager du contenu authentique et coloré sur les ré-
         tiques et de pratiques soutenables ressort de                                                                           seaux sociaux ». C’est ainsi que Sun Resorts l’a invitée à prendre
         toutes les interventions à cette conférence en                                                                          le contrôle des pages Facebook et Instagram du Sugar Beach afin
ligne. Deux éléments sont au cœur de ce passage à l’acte.                                                                        de partager son expérience hôtelière pendant les deux semaines
L’un est une prise de conscience sur les gains en perfor-                                                                        de son séjour. Les internautes peuvent lui poser des questions et
mance opérationnelle, financière et dans la création de                                                                          faire des suggestions d’activités que ces derniers auraient aimés
valeur - au-delà de la nécessité de sauvegarder l’environ-                                                                       voir « en live ».
nement naturel et d’assurer la pérennité face aux effets
du changement climatique. L’autre est la disponibilité
- et donc la mobilisation parfois difficile ou longue - des                                                                      Konkour Diskour lor Lintegrité :
ressources essentielles à la prise de décisions éclairées et
à la mise en œuvre : données précises, expertises, tech-
                                                                                                                                 Grande finale le 27 août
                                                                                                                                    Ce concours inédit et original, organisé par IMMEDIA sur ce-
nologies, financement… Cette approche a été soulignée                Pratiques agricoles                                         tte valeur humaine essentielle mais de plus en plus rare qu’est
d’emblée par Marco Dusso. Le consultant internation-                                                                             l’intégrité, a livré ses finalistes. En effet, le Jury a sélection-
al, qui accompagne déjà un des principaux conglom-                      La fertilité des sols sous canne est en effet un sujet   né 2 Finalistes dans la catégorie des Moins de 25 ans, Nicolas
érats mauriciens dans sa démarche de développement                   préoccupant. Jacqueline Sauzier n’a pas manqué de           Tourneur, âgé de 22 ans, et une adolescente de 14 ans, Izdihar
durable, a mis en exergue la dimension économico-fi-                 rappeler quelques chiffres : le rendement à l’hectare       Jaunnoo. Pour la catégorie des Plus de 25 ans, les Finalistes sont
nancière du sujet.                                                   est passé d’environ 16 tonnes au tout début des an-         Wendy Wong Tak Wan, Djouneid Fatemamode, Naden Manik-
   « Le rendement total pour les actionnaires, comparé entre di-     nées 2000 à moins de 13 tonnes en 2019, avec pour           kam, Arvind Mungroo, Ahmed Bachun et Eddy Jolicoeur. Ils
vers secteurs d’activité entre 2017 et 2020, montre que des ‘green   conséquence une production de 9 tonnes de sucre par         ont tous entre 30 et 65 ans. Le Jury, composé de Jyoti Jeetun,
champions’ de première génération font aussi bien en termes de       hectare en 2000 et d’environ 7 tonnes par hectare une       Henry Wan, Jane Ragoo et Vèle Putchay, fera son choix final le
RTA que les leaders technologiques comme Apple, Google et Face-      vingtaine d’années plus tard. Les techniques agricoles et   vendredi 27 août à l’hôtel Labourdonnais, au Caudan.
book. Ceux de deuxième génération comme Tesla et Beyond Meat         la mentalité des agriculteurs doivent évoluer, estime la
font au moins deux fois mieux », affirme le responsable de           secrétaire générale de la Chambre d’Agriculture. L’utili-
Boston Consulting Group.                                             sation parfois excessive des produits chimiques dans les    La Premier League jusqu’en 2025
USD 6,5 milliards
                                                                     champs de cannes et de légumes n’apporte pas néces-
                                                                     sairement une amélioration du rendement, indique-t-
                                                                                                                                 avec CANAL+ Maurice
                                                                                                                                    CANAL+ MAURICE acquiert les droits de la Premier League
pour les objectifs                                                   elle.                                                       pour trois saisons supplémentaires. Salah, Foden, Cavani, Kane,
                                                                        La question délicate de la production électrique à       Rashford, De Bruyne, Aubameyang, Kanté, Pogba, Lloris... Le
   Le CEO de Rogers, également président de la com-                  Maurice - qui repose pour une part non négligeable sur      championnat de football le plus prisé, le plus emblématique, avec
mission ‘Sustainability and Inclusive Growth’ de Busi-               l’utilisation de la bagasse - intéresse aussi la Chambre    ses stars, ses clubs mythiques et ses derbys endiablés reste sur
ness Mauritius, a fait le lien du contexte global avec               d’Agriculture. Le dernier Budget a augmenté de façon        CANAL+ pour trois saisons supplémentaires à compter de la sai-
la situation mauricienne. « Nous avons aussi défini un               importante la part de sources renouvelables, la faisant     son 2022-2023. « Parce que nos abonnés restent notre plus grande
objectif de réduction de CO2 d’ici 2030 mais à dix ans               passer de 35% à 60% à l’horizon 2030. Ce qui im-            priorité, nous mettons tout en œuvre chaque année pour leur offrir
de cette date, nous sommes clairement sur la mauvaise                plique de nouvelles discussions entre les producteurs       la meilleure des expériences. Le football étant le sport roi à Maurice,
trajectoire ». Il faudrait mobiliser 6,5 milliards de dollars        privés et le gouvernement, mais aussi l’identification de   nous sommes très fiers et heureux d’avoir obtenu les droits de retrans-
pour respecter les engagements mauriciens au sujet des               nouvelles sources de biomasse, ou une utilisation plus      mission de la Premier League jusqu’en 2025 », a indiqué Ghislaine
Contributions déterminées au niveau national (CDN) à                 conséquente de certaines sources actuelles, ou encore       Tchibozo, CEO de MC Vision/CANAL+ Maurice.
l’horizon 2030, rappelle Philippe Espitalier-Noël.                   de processus améliorés.

Respekte Moris : La côte Est, Bel-
Ombre, Le Morne et Wolmar nettoyés
  La troisième étape de la cam-               mar. Cette initiative conjointe du         du tourisme mauricien, incluant
pagne nationale de sensibili-                 ministère de l’Environnement,              les opérateurs du secteur, sans
sation à la propreté et nettoy-               du ministère du Tourisme, de               oublier les autorités locales de
age Respekte Moris a eu lieu                  la MTPA, de l’AHRIM, de la                 chaque région. La journée de
ce jeudi 19 août. Pas moins de                Tourism Authority, de la Beach             nettoyage a été officiellement
quatre régions de l’île étaient               Authority et de la délégation de           lancée lors d’une cérémonie pro-
au programme : la côte Est,                   l’Union Européenne réunit tous             tocolaire qui a eu lieu au Mao, à
Bel-Ombre, Le Morne et Wol-                   les membres de la grande famille           Trou d’Eau Douce.
Vaccine inequity will cost the global economy US.3trn - Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2021 - Bizweek
VENDREDI 27 AOÛT 2021 | BIZWEEK | ÉDITION 357                                                                                                                                                            10

                                                                                                        DEBRIEF
                                                            DRAINAGE
                                                                                                                                        LUX* Le Morne renforce son
     L’ingéniosité des                                                                                                                  engagement en faveur du
                                                                                                                                        développement durable
caniveaux à fente mise en
                                                                                                                                           Depuis quelques années, LUX* Le Morne s’engage activement
                                                                                                                                        dans la promotion du développement durable. Après le projet «
                                                                                                                                        Zero Food Waste » qui vise à lutter contre le gaspillage alimen-

 lumière par Transinvest
                                                                                                                                        taire, l’hôtel se joint maintenant aux actions de sensibilisation
                                                                                                                                        pour protéger l’environnement. Le jeudi 19 août, les membres du
                                                                                                                                        personnel de l’établissement ont participé à la campagne « Res-
                                                                                                                                        pekte Moris », mis en place par le ministère de l’Environnement
   Carburer à l’innovation pour continuer à mettre des nouvelles techniques de con-                                                     dans l’objectif de nettoyer la région côtière du Morne.
                                                                                                                                           LUX* Le Morne a, d’ailleurs, rejoint la plateforme interna-
     struction à la disposition de ses clients. Transinvest Construction Ltd, l’un des                                                  tional IT MUST BE NOW, qui rassemble tous les établissements
leaders du secteur BTP à Maurice comme à Rodrigues, a été la première à introduire                                                      hôteliers ainsi que les voyageurs autour du tourisme durable.
                                                                                                                                        L’établissement a été classé parmi les huit meilleurs hôtels mau-
  le système de drainage par l’association de caniveaux à fente dans le pays. Discrète,                                                 riciens par Le Conde Nast Traveller ME. Après sa rénovation
 efficace et durable, cette solution de gestion des eaux pluviales sur site se veut égale-                                              en décembre 2020, en utilisant des matériaux écologiques et re-
   ment simple et peu coûteuse. Elle a, d’ailleurs, été introduite par Transinvest dans                                                 cyclés, l’hôtel est plus que ravi que ses pratiques responsables
                                                                                                                                        soient mises à l’honneur et reconnues.
plusieurs projets d’envergure, notamment la construction de l’autoroute M1 à Pailles,
 de Jumbo Phoenix Mall, de Bagatelle Mall, de Cap Tamarin et du projet résidentiel                                                      SALT of Palmar primé sur
                  La Réserve à Flic-en-Flac, en cours de développement                                                                  la plateforme internationale
I     ls incarnent la solution esthé-
      tique et fonctionnelle idéale
      pour l’évacuation des eaux
de pluie ! Les caniveaux à fente
conviennent particulièrement aux
                                                                                                                                        hotels.com
                                                                                                                                           Il est le premier hôtel de Maurice à recevoir une telle note.
                                                                                                                                        SALT of Palmar s’est distingué sur hotels.com, référence inter-
                                                                                                                                        nationale de la réservation en ligne avec quelque 50 millions de
aménagements des centres-villes,                                                                                                        membres, avec une note de 9,8 sur 10. Cette pépite hôtelière du
les parcs et jardins, les zones com-                                                                                                    groupe The Lux Collective a été plébiscitée par plus de 136 vo-
merciales. Ils permettent un sys-                                                                                                       yageurs, lui octroyant pour la plupart la note de 10, soit « excep-
tème de drainage polyvalent qui                                                                                                         tionnel ». Certifié VeganWelcome par VeggieHotels en 2019, l’hô-
s’adapte au chantier grâce à leur                                                                                                       tel est le seul de l’île Maurice à servir des menus végans chauds
système modulable qui répond aux                                                                                                        et froids, végétariens, crudivores, sans gluten et sans lactose,
besoins de tous les types de cahier                                                                                                     permettant ainsi à tous ses convives d’y trouver leur bonheur.
des charges.
   « Dans notre métier, nous devons
constamment innover et être à l’affût des
                                                                                                                                        Constance Belle Mare :
dernières technologies et techniques de                                                                                                 Le restaurant La Citronnelle
construction, afin de proposer les meil-
leurs services en matière de construction        profil longitudinal du drain. Une               gratter les poussières et débris       présente sa recette d’une
d’infrastructures routières, d’ouvrages de       grille intermédiaire est fixée à des            présents dans le drain. Ceux- ci       rénovation réussie
génie civil et de bâtiment, à nos clients.       intervalles réguliers pour faciliter            sont entassés près de la grille
Ces types de développement se doivent            l’accès et le nettoyage.                        d’inspection, puis récupérées ma-
d’être solides, durables et efficaces au vu         « En raison de leur section hydraulique      nuellement. Dans le cas où il n’y
de l’envergure du chantier. Il est donc cru-     circulaire, la vitesse d’écoulement à la base   aurait pas eu d’entretien pendant
cial de venir avec des solutions modernes,       des caniveaux à fente est plus élevée que       longtemps et qu’un envasement se
sûres, esthétiques et accessibles ; le système   sur les drains conventionnels en U ou en        serait produit, il est recommandé
de drainage par le biais de caniveaux à          maçonnerie. Les caniveaux à fente re-           de procéder à un nettoyage par
fente s’inscrit dans ce sens », explique         tiennent donc moins les petits débris et        un jet d’eau dans le drain à l’aide
Tony Guidroz, directeur de travaux               les fines particules, et sont moins sujets à    d’une citerne. L’ouverture étroite
chez Transinvest.                                l’envasement. Cependant, un minimum             tout au long du drain capture l’eau
   Les caniveaux à fente sont con-               d’entretien reste nécessaire », explique le     et empêche les débris de surface
struits avec une section transversale            directeur de travaux à Transinvest,             d’entrer dans le caniveau. Quant
circulaire de différents diamètres               Santosh Ramdhonee.                              aux coûts, ils varient en fonction
allant de 400 mm à 600 mm, avec                     Les caniveaux à fente sont net-              du terrain et de la finition adoptée
une fente de 30 à 40 mm le long du               toyés avec un jeu de spatules pour              pour les drains.
                                                                                                                                           Un espace de vie créatif et interactif, où il fait bon manger et
                                                                                                                                        se détendre. Constance Belle Mare Plage a profité de la fermeture
Bilan trimestriel : Bénéfice                                                                                                            de l’hôtel durant la pandémie pour entreprendre d’importantes
                                                                                                                                        rénovations dans son restaurant principal, La Citronnelle. « Le

net en hausse de 17,7% pour                                                                                                             restaurant offrant un style de vie unique, allie parfaitement am-
                                                                                                                                        biance conviviale, nourriture exceptionnelle, service d’excellence
                                                                                                                                        et spiritueux raffinés. Nous avons voulu offrir un concept unique

Vivo Energy Mauritius                                                                                                                   : nous proposons non seulement l’un des buffets les plus com-
                                                                                                                                        plets et de qualité de l’île, mais nous permettons à nos convives
                                                                                                                                        de participer à l’élaboration de leur plat à travers de espaces de
   Vivo Energy Mauritius, société
détentrice de la franchise Shell à                                                                                                      cuisson ouverts », déclare Gert Puchtler, directeur général de cet
Maurice, annonce avoir réalisé, au                                                                                                      hôtel 5- étoiles.
deuxième trimestre 2021, un béné-
fice net de Rs 12,7 millions, soit                                                                                                      MC Vision récompense
une hausse de 17,7%. Le bénéfice
net s’était élevé à Rs 10,8 millions                                                                                                    les gagnants de sa loterie
à l’issue d’un exercice similaire en                                                                                                    « Ensemble, célébrons le foot »
                                                                                                                                           Les grands gagnants de la loterie « Ensemble, célébrons le foot
                                                                                                                                        », organisée par MC Vision/CANAL+ Maurice du 1er juin au 31
                                                   2020. Le chiffre d’affaires a pro-             cacité opérationnelle a également     juillet dernier, étaient réunis à Le Nénuphar, espace de cowork-
                                                   gressé de 72%, passant de Rs 1,4               permis de réduire les coûts et, par   ing dans les Arcades Currimjee, le jeudi 19 août, pour la remise
                                                   à Rs 2,4 milliards.                            conséquent, accroître la rentabil-    des prix. Ainsi, tous ceux ayant les chaînes CANAL+ SPORT
                                                     La reprise progressive dans                  ité. Les gains enregistrés sur les    dans leur abonnement, étaient automatiquement éligibles au ti-
                                                   de nombreux secteurs économ-                   marchés boursiers mondiaux et         rage au sort, qui s’est tenu, le 4 août dernier au Mauritius Turf
                                                   iques à Maurice a amélioré la                  locaux en plein rebond ont per-       Club. Au total, 23 abonnés repartent avec des lots exceptionnels,
                                                   performance en termes de vol-                  mis, quant à eux, d’annuler les       tels que des Smart TVs 4K-UHD de 65” avec Sound Bar, des
                                                   ume au deuxième trimestre par                  coûts de réévaluation de la péri-     home cinémas, des tablettes tactiles ainsi que des interventions
                                                   rapport à la même période en                   ode précédente liés au régime de      techniques offertes pendant deux ans.
                                                   2020. L’amélioration de l’effi-                retraite à prestations définies.
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