Value Chain Analysis of the PV Market in Pakistan Project "Pakistan Solar Quality Potential"
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Value Chain Analysis of the PV Market in Pakistan
Project “Pakistan Solar Quality Potential“
Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.V. (BSW-Solar)
Content
Project “Pakistan Solar Quality Potential“
The value chain analysis
• Energy situation & key stakeholders for PV development
• Key actors in the value chain
• PV import data
• Feedback from interviews & market research
• Market segments & perceptions
• Business environment for German PV companies
• Target segments for German PV companies
© BSW-Solar
German Solar Association: 3
TASK To represent the solar industry in Germany in the
thermal and photovoltaic and storage sector
VISION A sustainable global energy supply provided by solar
(renewable) energy
ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market
observation, standardization
EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years
REPRESENTS More than 800 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers,
installers and other companies active in the solar
business from all over the world
HEADQUARTERS Berlin
Wholesale Project Con-
System
Equipment Materials & Distri- Develop- structi O&M
components
bution ment on
© BSW-Solar
BSW-Solar: Working world wide
to improve frameworks for the use of
solar energy!
Partnerships, Market reports, esp. Partner countries in
business networks “Enabling PV” “PV FINANCING”
The project: Pakistan Solar Quality Potential © BSW-Solar
Objective To achieve a sustainable quality demand of PV products, through the improvement of the capacity building of local institutions helping them to achieve an organizational structure that allows them to continue with the dissemination of quality standards and norms in Pakistan • Duration: August – December 2016 • On behalf of the GIZ • Partners: Pakistan Solar Association © BSW-Solar
Project activities & outcomes
Analyze the Identification of the PV
value chain of market potential & the
PV in Pakistan needs of local stakeholders
Development of a Target group of the trainings are
training concept & installers and of the awareness
awareness campaign are the end customers
campaign
The pilot region is Lahore.
Identification of
Nevertheless, the training material
the key will be generic and able to be used
multipliers for in all the country
dissemination
© BSW-Solar
Project activities & outcomes
To qualify key Pakistani
Conduction of multipliers for the application
trainings of the standards and norms.
Focused on installers.
Strength Bringing together relevant
cooperation stakeholders including training
between institutions and industries in both
Pakistan & countries
Germany
& disseminate the results with relevant stakeholders in both
countries
© BSW-Solar
The value chain analysis © BSW-Solar
Methodology of the study
Compilation & review of
published data/statistics on
solar PV
Identification of the key
value chain actors
Development of customized
supply chain questionnaire
Interviews were conducted with
key solar PV value chain actors
Results based on interviews and
complemented with statistics and
available market dataSolar irradiation levels - Pakistan
High irradiation levels
Across the country (4.5-7.0 kWh/m2/day)
In particular: Punjab & Sindh provinces:
4.5 – 6.0 kWh/m2/day
High PV potential in both rural and
urban areas. Industry concentrated in
Punjab & Sindh provinces.
© BSW-SolarPower sector in Pakistan: installed capacity
RE
Nuclear
Thermal
Hydro
21,257 MW 23,167 MW 23,302 MW 23,617 MW 24,953 MW 25,255 MW 26,197 MW
Share of RES steadily
increasing each year
1136 MW of RES
installed by 2016,
mainly PV, wind and
micro/mini hydropower
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RE 50 106 408 1136
Nuclear 462 787 787 787 787 787 1.127
Thermal 14.240 15.753 15.888 15.852 16.963 16.963 16.814
Hydro 6.555 6.627 6.627 6.928 7.097 7.097 7.121
Source: CPPA, NEPRA and AEDBPower sector in Pakistan: supply & demand scenario
Capacity
Availability
Demand
The power deficit was near 5 GW in
30938 summer 2016
27600
Multiple power generation projects
25080 26590
from various sources are currently
23107 in the pipeline and are envisaged to
21599 25961 eliminate the power deficit by 2019
24262 - if expected projects are
18738
completed on time
19917 18262
17107 PV based projects can play a key
21096 role in the elimination of the power
deficit, particularly in the industrial
17500
and residential sectors.
14121
Source: MoWPPower sector in Pakistan: higher demand in the
domestic & industrial sector
Increase of 11,000
GWh in the last 5
years, specially in the
domestic and industrial
sector
Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2015
© BSW-SolarRationale for PV development Significant and increasing energy demand in the country Policy on FITs (Feed in tariffs) catalyzing project development Introduction of net metering Introduction of import quality standards Financing available for PV
Key stakeholders for PV development
Other stakeholders for PV development
• PSA (Pakistan Solar Association) : National trade body of Pakistan’s PV industry. The
association represents and promotes PV businesses in the country
• REAP (Renewable Energy Association of Pakistan): Non-profit organization currently
representing 400 members with the aim to promote renewable energy sources in Pakistan
• International donors/technical assistance programs
BMZ (German Ministry of Economic Cooperation)
GIZ (implementers on behalf of BMZ)
KfW bank
ADB (Asian Development Bank)
USAID (United States Agency for International Development)
JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency)
ADB (Asian Development Bank)
European Commission
World Bank
UNDP (United Nations Development Program)
UNIDO
DFIDPV Value Chain Actors
Trend of import of PV panels: Oct’14 - Sept’15 vs.
Oct’15 - Sept’16
Chinese PV panels have the highest share of imports into Pakistan which has increased between 2014 and 2016.
This is attributed to price competitiveness with similar products from other countries, extensive customer outreach
through dealership networks and a large variation in product quality/pricing which caters to different economic
classes of customers.
0.40% (4 MW) 0.53% (5.4 MW)
China 1.39% (14.1 MW)
0.22% (1.1 MW) 0.21% (1.1 MW) China
UAE
0.62% (6.3 MW) 1.47% (15 MW) UAE
3.20% 1.40% (7.3 MW)
(16.7 MW) Germany
Malaysia
Korea
95.60% (975.3 MW)
Germany
94.98% (497 MW)
Others
Hong
Kong
Others
Oct'14 - Sept'15 Oct'15 - Sept'16
• Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), GoP, 2016
• Panel volume imported (MW) calculated based on 0.7 USD/Watt (FBR Valuation Ruling No. 620/2013)Trend of import of inverters: Oct’14 - Sept’15 vs.
Oct’15 - Sept’16
Chinese inverters have highest share of imports into Pakistan which has increased between 2014 and 2016. The
reasons behind this dynamic are the same as in the case of import of PV panels i.e. price competitiveness with
similar products from other countries, extensive dealership networks and a large variation in product quality/pricing
which caters to different economic classes of customers.
China
China
UAE
2.13% (39.5 MW)
UK Germany
Germany 2.16% (40.1 MW)
7.28% (135.1 MW) Finland
Finland
20.46% (317.1 MW) 2.58% (47.9 MW) UAE
Others
3.17% (58.9 MW)
2.55% Other EU
4.21%
(39.5 MW) States
(78.3 MW)
6.01% UK
(93.2 MW) 6.93%
65.01% (1007.4 MW) (128.8 MW) 71.54% (1328.8 MW) Italy
2.86% Others
(44.3 MW)
3.11%
(48.1 MW)
Oct'14-Sept'15 Oct'15-Sept'16
• Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), GoP, 2016
• Inverter volume imported (MW) calculated based on 37.5 USD/kW (FBR Valuation Ruling No. 751/2015)
• Inverter statistics presented are for all inverters imported into country (i.e. for use with PV systems and also for use as
UPS for charging only from the grid )Trend of import of charge controllers: Oct’14 - Sept’15
vs. Oct’15 - Sept’16
High proportion of ‘Chinese’ Charge controllers being imported into the country with the same reasons behind
this dynamic as those already cited above for the case of PV panels and inverters. Overall volume of Charge
controllers imported from Germany has increased over the last year, although there has been a minor decrease
in the market share
2.04 %
(14.8 MW)
2.41 % (17.5 MW) China
6.72 % (39.4 MW) 5.83 % (42.3 MW)
3.35 % (19.6 MW)
2.60 % (18.9 MW) Germany
4.47 % (26.2 MW)
5.96 % (43.2 MW)
USA
36.03 % (211.1 MW) China 32.78 % (237.7 MW)
Italy
23.58 % (138.1 MW) Germany 7.02 % (50.9 MW)
Other EU
USA
19.37 % (140.5 MW) states
Singapore UAE
25.86 % (151.5 MW)
Italy 21.98 % (159.4 MW) Turkey
Others
Sweden
Others
Oct'14 - Sept'15 Oct'15 - Sept'16
• Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), GoP, 2016
• Charge controller volume imported (MW) calculated based on 37.5 USD/kW (FBR Valuation Ruling No. 751/2015)Trend of import of deep cycle’ batteries: Oct’14 -
Sept’15 vs. Oct’15 - Sept’16
High proportion of Chinese ‘deep cycle’ batteries being imported into the country with the same reasons
behind this dynamic as those already cited above for the case of PV panels and inverters. Overall volume of
batteries imported from Germany has increased over the last year, although there has been a minor decrease
in the market share
0.49% (117.4 t) 1.81% (530.6 t) 0.98% (286.4 t)
0.47% (137 t)
1.03% (247.9 t) 3.71% 3.70% (1086.6 t)
(899.8 t)
1.65% (483.2 t)
2.57% (621.3 t)
China China
1.97% (475.2 t) 3.03% (888.1 t)
2.62% USA Vietnam
(634.3 t) 3.24% (950.0 t)
USA
Vietnam
5.17% (1249 t) Korea
France
Singapore
Korea
82.44 % Other EU
85.13% (24,970 t)
(19,900 tonnes) states
UK Germany
Germany Others
Others
Oct'14 - Sept'15 Oct'15 - Sept'16
• Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), GoP, 2016
• Deep cycle battery volume imported (tonnes) calculated based on 1.72 USD/ kg (FBR Valuation Ruling No. 723/2015)Results based on interviews and market research © BSW-Solar
PV products & service range in Pakistan
imported brands available
PV panels Inverters Batteries
Voltronic (Taiwan) Long (Vietnam)
Yingli (China) Hoppeke (German)
Kyocera (Japan) Schneider Electric (French)
Sacred Sun (China) Powersonic (China)
Rene Sola (China) Trojan (USA)
LG (Korean) SMA (Germany)
ABB (Swedish- Narada (China)
JA Solar (China) Baykee (China)
Canadian Solar (China) Swiss)
Outback (USA) JTE (China)
Alfa Solar (Germany) CSB (Taiwan)
Hitek (UK) Nedap (Holland)
Sungrow (China) Huawei (China)
Jinko Solar (China) Sunny Power (China)
GH (Belgium) Baykee (China)
Studer (Swiss) Inti Power (China)
Trina Solar (China)
Solar World (Germany) TBB Power (China)
Phono (China) Fronius (Austria)
Beyond PV (Taiwan) Victron (Holland)
Eurener (Spain) I-Energy (Taiwan)
Hanergy (China) Kaco New Energy (Germany)
Shanghai Solar (China)
Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.) and on market research. The list is not exhaustive
and may not include all available brands. The component brands are listed in no particular order. Considering the scope of this study, it was not possible to assess
the specific market share of each respective brand mentioned here. Classification of equipment into ‘Tiers’ is currently not possible, due to the lack of quality
standards in Pakistan.PV products & service range in Pakistan
• Chinese products have a considerable market share of the PV market in the country
with over 90 % of the PV panels and over 80 % of the ‘deep cycle’ batteries. This is
attributed to the price competitiveness with similar products from other countries, extensive
dealership networks and a large variation in product quality/pricing which caters to different
economic classes of customers.
• Considerable variation in quality and price of PV products (panels, batteries, inverters)
being imported from China
• There is a niche in every market sector (industrial, commercial and residential) that
requires high quality and reliable PV products, particularly inverters and batteries. These
elements of the market constitute the target customer group for European products.
• Most existing and potential users of PV from the industrial sector in Pakistan claim to prefer
European products since they are bankable and more reliable. However, currently they
purchase Chinese products (PV panels and inverters) due to the high costs of the
European products and the limited offer of after-sales services in comparison to the
Chinese ones.
* Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (importers, wholesalers, retailers, installers etc.) and on market researchPV products & service range in Pakistan: panels
Local ‘assembly’ of panels being conducted by five companies in Pakistan. However, imported
panels manufactured by reputed brands are currently preferred due to the higher reliability and
trust enjoyed by foreign brands
Panels
Local manufacturing Local assembly
Yes
No
Limited volumes and questionable
quality
Customers NOT satisfied with performance of local
panels (efficiency versus price)
Import of PV panels
Low quality panels (low cost
brands & smuggled) High quality panels (reputed brands)
* Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, retailers, installers etc.)PV products & service range in Pakistan: batteries
Manufacturing of AGM batteries is expected to commence soon in Pakistan with four different industrial groups
setting up factories in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi:
Daewoo Group
Treet Group
Eco Star (DWP & GREE Groups)
Homage
Landscape of batteries for PV systems in
Pakistan
Local battery Imported battery
(≅60%)** (≅40%)**
High quality (≅30%)**
Sub-standard (≅100%)** High quality Sub-standard (≅70%) **
(High-end European, American,
(Lead acid car batteries) (Yet to start manufacturing) (Low grade Chinese)
Chinese)
* Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)
** Rough estimates based on feedback collected during interviews and market research. Detailed surveys are necessary to determine
more accurate statistics regarding the battery landscape in Pakistan.Results: customer awareness
Question: What is the general level of ‘Customer awareness’ related to PV products in Pakistan?
:
Awareness scale (0 to 10)
0: Unaware
10: Aware
10% • ‘Low’ level of awareness (≤2) : 23%
23%
• ‘Moderate’ level of awareness (>2≤5): 67%
≤2 • ‘High’ level of awareness (>5≤10): 10%
>2≤5
67%
>5≤10
Note: ‘Customers’ collectively refers to clients from the residential, commercial, industrial and public sectors
Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)Results: payback expectations
Question: What are the ‘Payback expectations’ from PV products of the different customer segments in the
Pakistani market?
5 years 5 years
5,0
4.5 years
4,5
4,0
3.5 years The shortest payback expectations
3,5 are for the commercial sector (3.5
years), followed by the industrial
Payback Time (years)
3,0 sector (4.5 years)
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Commercial Residential Industrial Public Sector
Target Sector for PV Products
Note: ‘Customers’ collectively refers to clients from the residential, commercial, industrial and public sectors
Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)Results: certified PV components
Question: What is the proportion of ‘Certified’ PV components in the local market?
Low proportion of ‘certified’ PV components available in the local market
20%
20
Proportion of Certified Components in Pak Market
18
14%
16
14
12 9%
10
8
6
4
2
0
Inverter Battery Panel
Solar system components
Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)
Exact statistics on the specific brands and their respective volumes being imported into Pakistan are only available with the customs authorities. However, this information is
restricted and classified.Perception of the PV market segments
Industrial Commercial
Typical installation size Typical installation size
1 MW – 10 MW 100 kW – 1 MW
High potential industries & locations High potential segments & locations
• Textile (spread across Punjab province) • Hospitals (across the country)
• Sports (focused in Sialkot city) • Private educational institutions
• Food industry (across the country) • Hotels & restaurants (across the country)
• Pharmaceutical industry (Karachi) • General provision stores (across the country)
Possible project financing models Possible project financing models
• Financing through recently announced scheme for • Financing through recently announced Scheme
RE project financing by State bank of Pakistan. for RE project financing by State bank of
Loans being offered at 6% for solar PV projects up to Pakistan. Loans being offered at 6% for solar PV
50 MW projects up to 50 MW
• Conventional financing through lending from bank • Conventional financing through lending from
along with equity from project developer bank along with equity from project developer
• Equity
Product preferences
Based on past trends, industry prefers to install reliable Product preferences
and high quality components to ensure project In the past, tendency to install cheaper and less
bankability. reliable quality Chinese brands. However, slowly
trend moving towards increasing awareness leading
SMA, Schneider and ABB quite popular in terms of to installation of SMA, Schneider and ABB due to
reliability compared to Chinese products high level of reliability
http://www.sbp.org.pk/smefd/circulars/2016/C3.htm
Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)Perception of the PV market segments
Residential Public sector (Government funded)
Typical installation size Typical installation size
1 kW – 20 kW 50 kW – 200 kW
High potential locations High potential segments & locations
• Urban centers (Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, • Public hospitals & health facilities
Faisalabad, Multan, Hyderabad) • Government educational institutions (across the
• 40,000 un-electrified off-grid villages across the country country)
• Agricultural areas across Punjab, Sindh and KPK • Public parks and recreation facilities (across the
provinces owned by farmers with land holdings of different country)
sizes • Public offices (across the country)
Possible Project Financing Models Possible project financing models
• Financing through recently announced scheme for RE • Public financing from national approved budget as per PC-
project financing by State bank of Pakistan. Loans being 1 document
offered at 6 percent1 for solar PV projects up to 50 MW • Grant aid from international donor agencies
• Equity
• Funding through donor projects in off-grid areas Product preferences
Tendency remains to maximize project size within allocated
Product Preferences budget. Also, ‘open’ tenders bidding mechanism based on
High price sensitivity exists with niche market for ‘high awarding project to ‘lowest’ bidder results in high quality and
quality’ and certified products. Large proportions of clients in durable products losing out to competitors offering lower
this sector opting for Chinese products although increasing quality products
interest in ‘certified’ high quality products as result of ‘lessons
learnt’
1. http://www.sbp.org.pk/smefd/circulars/2016/C3.htm
* Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)Business environment for German PV companies:
opportunities & challenges
Challenges Opportunities
‘Customer awareness’ for PV and the benefits of Net Metering introduced by NEPRA in Sept 2015.
investing in high quality and certified equipment need To increase the share of PV and generate revenue by feeding
to be increased back into the grid. Issuance of licenses for net metering has
commenced
‘High Price sensitivity’ for European products
compared to non-European products. Financing through recently announced scheme for RES project
• Residential sector: customers willing to pay 20% financing by State Bank of Pakistan. Loans with 6% interest
Industrial sector: 30 to 40% higher cost rate for solar PV projects up to 50 MW
• Commercial sector:10-15% higher cost
Implementation of ‘Import Quality Standards’ to be
implemented soon. It will ensure reduction in ‘uncertified’
solar PV components in the market and promote quality
Limited after sales’ support of European products in ‘certified’ products
comparison to e.g. China.
German products enjoy high level of trust and reliability in all
Limited technical expertise & product knowledge on customer segments of the Pakistani solar PV market. Specially
PV components leads to issues during commissioning grid tied systems
for system configuration and also during operation
The focus should be on Large industry (textile, sports,
pharmaceutical etc.) . These industries are the mainstays of
the Pakistani economy generating a high annual profit.
Solar pumping applications also possess considerable
potential for projects in the pipeline from the public sector in
Sindh and Baluchistan provinces
* Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)Target segments for German PV products & services
Products Services
‘Grid tied’ inverters
for use in medium scale (100kW-1 MW) and
large scale (>1 MW) grid connected projects Technical consulting services
being set up by industrial and commercial
sectors. (techno-economic feasibility studies, grid
(Price competitiveness with comparable connection studies, support in project
products from other countries will be critical) tendering process, monitoring of
commissioned projects, maintenance and
operation of large scale grid connected &
Batteries (Flooded or AGM) medium scale PV projects)
The residential, off-grid & the commercial
sector installations requiring battery back
up. Installed system are expected to scale EPC Companies
up to use the economic benefits of net for developing both commercial sector
metering and will require larger battery (kW scale) and large scale (>1 MW) grid
banks. connected projects
(Potential for high quality batteries exists
but price competitiveness will other EPC contracting companies with a strong
comparable products will be critical) profile of developing large scale projects
are in high demand
PV testing & monitoring equipment
(battery testers, PV panel testers, PV
analyzers, PV panel flash test equipment)
Results based on interviews with PV key value chain actors (wholesalers, importers, installers, retailers etc.)IEC quality standards
Nr. IEC Standards Title
1 IEC 61646:2008 Thin-film terrestrial photovoltaic (PV) modules design qualification and type approval
2 IEC 61439-1:2011 Low-voltage switchgear and Control gear assemblies – Part 1: General rules
3 IEC 60947- Low voltage switchgear and control gear – Part 3: switches, disconnections, switch
3:2008+A1:2012 disconnections and fuse combination units
4 IEC: 62103:2003 Electronic equipment for use in power installations (e.g. EN 50178:1998)
5 IEC: 62930 Electric cables for photovoltaic systems (BT(DE/NOT)258)(e.g EN 50618)
6 IEC 62103 (2003-07) Electronic equipment for use in power installations
Ed.1.0
7 IEC 61701:2011 Salt mist corrosion testing of photovoltaic (PV) modules
8 IEC 62116:2014 Protection against islanding of Grid (Utility-interconnected photovoltaic inverters –
procedure of islanding prevention measures)
9 IEC 61683: 1999 Photovoltaic systems – Power conditioners – Procedure for measuring efficiency
10 IEC 62509:2010 Battery charge controllers for photovoltaic systems – Performance and functioning
Adopted as Pakistan standard in 94th electro-technical national standards committee meeting held on October 21st,
2015. Implementation of these standards has yet to commence.IEC quality standards
Nr. IEC Standards Title
11 IEC 62093:2005 Balance-of-system components for photovoltaic systems – natural
environments
12 IEC 62124: 2004 Photovoltaic (PV) stand alone systems – Design verification
13 IEC 62253: 2011 Photovoltaic pumping systems – Design qualification and
measurements
14 IEC 62257 (2013) Recommendations for small renewable energy and hybrid systems for
electrification – Part 1: General introduction to IEC 62257 series and
electrification
15 IEC/TS 62257-9-5: 2013 (E) Recommendations for small renewable energy and hybrid systems for
electrification – Part 9-5: Integrated system – Selection of stand-alone
lighting kits for rural electrification
Adopted as Pakistan standard in 94th electro-technical national standards committee meeting held on October 21st,
2015. Implementation of these standards has yet to commence.IEC safety standards
Nr. IEC Standards Title
1 IEC 62109-1:2010 Safety of power converters for use in photovoltaic power systems –
General requirements
2 IEC 62109-2:2011 Safety of power converters for use in photovoltaic power systems –
Particular requirements for inverters
3 IEC 61730-1:2004 Photovoltaic (PV) module safety qualification – Part 1: Requirements
construction
4 IEC 61730-2:2004 Photovoltaic (PV) module safety qualification – Part 2: Requirements
testing
5 IEC 61439-1: 2011 Low-voltage switchgear and Control gear assemblies – Part 1:
Adopted as Pakistan standard in 94th electro-technical national standards committee meeting held on October 21st,
2015. Implementation of these standards has yet to commence.IEC environmental standards
Nr. IEC Standards Title
1 IEC 61000-6-4:2006 + A1:2010 Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) – Part 6-4: Generic standards –
Emission standard for industrial environments
2 IEC 61000-6-1:2006+ A1:2010 Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) – Part 6-1: Generic standards –
Immunity for residential, commercial and light-industrial
applicable)
3 IEC 61000-6-3:2006 + A1:2010 Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) – Part 6-3: Generic standards –
Emission standard for residential, commercial and light industrial
environments (if applicable)
4 IEC 60068-2 Environmental Testing (more than 70 standards in this series (From
2-1 to 60068-2-83)
Adopted as Pakistan standard in 94th electro-technical national standards committee meeting held on October 21st,
2015. Implementation of these standards has yet to commence.Luz Alicia Aguilar
International Project Manager
German Solar Association
Phone: +49 (30) 29 777 88-40
E-Mail: aguilar@bsw-solar.de
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