Vers une nouvelle donne pour les marchés de la pâte?
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AFVP
Divonne-les-Bains
Juin 2018
Pierre Bach
Hawkins Wright Ltd
pierre.bach@hawkinswright.com
Vers une nouvelle donne pour
les marchés de la pâte?
• La “nouvelle donne” en Chine?
• Les restrictions d’importations de RCF – quelles consequences?
• Incertitude à court-terme: marges des papetiers sous pression
• Inflation à long-terme?
HAWKINS WRIGHT
L’année dernière…
HAWKINS WRIGHT
Prix Net BEKP et NBSK,
CIF China (US$/t)
China
Net NBSK prices vs. NET BEKP prices
STAGE I STAGE II $885/t
900 China NBSK China BEKP
US$/t delivered
800
700 $570/t
$770/t
600
500
400
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 $470/t Jan-17 Jan-18
Source: Hawkins Wright
• Strong pulp price inflation since Q4 2016, defying the consensus view at the time
• Stage I: delayed OKI volumes & strong demand growth in China
• Stage II: ~1.5Mt’s worth of unforeseen outages & Chinese RCF import restrictions
• Flat BSKP prices since December 2017, only minor upticks in BHKP…
HAWKINS WRIGHT
Source: Hawkins WrightLa “nouvelle donne” en Chine?
Production Papier/Carton en Chine … et consommation de fibre
120 120
110 "New" China
100 100
"Old" China
90
Local waste
80 CPA estimates 80
thousand tonnes
29.5
million tonnes
70
Imported waste
60 60
50 Non-wood
25.7
40 40
2.7
30 Local pulp
10.1
20 20
10 Imported pulp
21.0
0 0
2017
Source: Defining the Chinese market for pulp, paper & board, HAWKINS WRIGHT
(Hawkins Wright)Importation Chinoise de vieux papier (RCF)
(en milliers de tonnes, 3mma)
3,000
2,500
2,000 Office
1,500 ONP
Mixed
1,000
OCC
500
0
Source: China customs
• Wastepaper imports totalled 14.9Mt in H117, and 10.8Mt in H217…now 3.9Mt in Q118
• On trend for 17-20Mt this year? Potential 10Mt fibre deficit?
• 9.5Mt’s worth of import licences issued thus far this year HAWKINS WRIGHTConséquences multiples
• Local RCF collection will accelerate
• Further consolidation in Chinese paper industry – New China v Old China
• Lower production of P&B
• Trade rebalancing
China’s trade balance (unconverted P&B)
8.0
6.0
4.0
thousand tonnes
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0 Imports Exports Net export
-6.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Chinese customs HAWKINS WRIGHTChinese output of machine made paper and board
Y-o-y % change (3 month moving average)
14% 2015: -1.7% 2016: +3.4% 2017: +4.8%
Le marché
12%
10%
chinois
8%
6%
4%
• Chinese pulp prices peaked six
2% months ago
0%
ROW just catching up this
Q118:
month
-2%
-4% -4.6%
-6% • Paper curtailment in packaging has
-8%
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
caused BCTMP prices to fall since
Source: National Bureau of Stats
March
• Fine paper prices took a hit in May,
Chinese imports of BCP by month, 2017-present and producers are now taking
(Y-o-y change in 000s tonnes)
downtime…
No growth in pulp imports since
600
January-June: +1.7Mt July-December: +0.5Mt Jan-Mar +0.1Mt •
500 November, despite the lack of
recovered fibre
000s tonnes
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
HAWKINS WRIGHT
Source: Chinese customs dataPression sur les marges des papetiers,
vers une convergence des prix?
140
UWF/CWF average • As China repatriates their exports
135
130 price index domestically, prices elsewhere are
125 China starting to rise
January 2015=100
120
• In North America and Europe, prices
115
110 only gained momentum in Q2 this
105 Europe year, and gains remain modest so far
100
• Margins have deteriorated everywhere
95
90 North America except in China, reaching historical
85 lows in Europe & North America
In China… … in Europe… … in North America
3500 600 600
RMB per tonne of UWF paper
US$ per tonne of UWF paper
EUR per tonne of UWF paper
550
Papermakers’ 3000
500 500
converting
margins: 2500 450
400 400
2000
350
1500 300
HAWKINS
300
WRIGHT
Source: Hawkins Wright '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Situation critique notamment pour le secteur tissue
US tissue price index vs net pulp prices
140
135 NBSK (net)
130 BHKP (net)
Indexed (2016 = 100)
125 Tissue products PPI
120
Decoupling
115
continues
110
105
100
95
90
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Source: Hawkins Wright, US bureau of Labor stats
• Tissue & fluff sectors now account for 47% of kraft pulp demand, compared to 36% in 2010
HAWKINS WRIGHTLes prix en Europe:
le nominal vs le réel et le net
PIX indices for NBSK and BHKP, in € - nominal v real prices
NBSK €/t (nominal)
1,000
NBSK €/t (real)
NBSK €/t (real, net)
900
Euro/tonne cif NW Europe
BHKP €/t (nominal)
800 BHKP €/t (real)
BHKP €/t (real, net)
700
600
500
400
300
200
HAWKINS WRIGHT
Source: FOEX, World Bank, Hawkins WrightMais la macro a son importance…
US Federal Reserve Eurozone
Major Currencies US$ Index Exchange rate: EUR/USD
100 0.65
95 0.70
90 0.75
Index (1980=100)
85
0.80
80
0.85
75
0.90
70
0.95
65
Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1.00
Source: Fed Reserve
The US$ Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange
values of the U.S. dollar against the Euro, Yen, British Pound,
CAN$, Krona and Swiss Franc
Source: Google Finance, Hawkins Wright
Source: Federal Reserve, Google Finance, Hawkins Wright
• US$ weakness facilitating higher pulp prices
• Presents both upside and downside risks, especially given how supportive macro-economic
tailwinds have been through 2017…
HAWKINS WRIGHT…ainsi que la saisonalité.
World-20 ten-year average supply, %difference from annual avg
• Seasonal weakness in supply
6%
supplemented by: Klabin,
Scandinavia (pulpwood shortage),
4%
4% APP + others
3%
%-difference from annual average
• Supply to surge higher during
2% 2%
2% June/July? Additional support from
1% 1% Chenming’s new lines in Q3? SCA
0% 0% 0% Ostrand?
• Truckers’ strike in Brazil to remove
-2% -2%
-2%
>0.3Mt of supply?
-4%
Assumed OR for BEKP mills in Brazil (market pulp only)
-4% -4%
90%
80%
Prod-to-capacity ratio
-6% 70%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 60%
50%
Source: Hawkins Wright 40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
HAWKINS WRIGHTIncertitude sur le court-terme, mais pour le
moyen/long-terme, la tendance reste inflationnaire
Court terme: + macro-economy, stocks, problèmes de production (météo, mécanique, grève…)
inflation des prix du papier en Chine…
- cyclicalité, pression sur les marges, nouvelle capacités, coûts de production bas,
dollar US en hausse?...
Long terme:
Aucune nouvelle capacité confirmée au-delà de 2018
Consolidation (Eldorado/PE, Fibria/Suzano, Lwarcel/APRIL)
Manque de fibres en Asie, et ailleurs?
“Peak RCF”, & la guerre contre le plastic
“Peak cotton” & le boom viscose
La majorité des risques déflationnaires sont en dehors de notre contrôle (e.g. économie
Chinoise, tensions géopolitiques, niveau de la dette…)
Le cycle inflationnaire Chinois ne se répètera pas!
HAWKINS WRIGHTQuarterly NBSK prices
cif Europe, nominal
1,400
??!!
Wood costs fall
1,200 Strengthening Financial crisis, Euro crisis,
US$ stronger dollar, China slows
Recession and start-up of
new low cost mills recession
1,000
List prices,US$/tonne
Energy & Nordic
wood costs devaluation
800 fall. New, New low-cost
larger mills mills ECB commits to
unity,
OPEC 1 QE etc
600 Nordic
wood Financial stimulus,
costs rise production
curtailment,
Weak US dollar, Chilean earthquake
400 rising fibre & energy
Economies boom
OPEC 2 No new capacity Dot com costs, China growth
Rising US dollar accelerates
weakens Weak US boom/bust,
energy costs emergence of
dollar
200 Rising wood China
costs
Bretton Woods
dismantled
0
Q170 Q175 Q180 Q185 Q190 Q195 Q100 Q105 Q110 Q115 Q120
HAWKINS WRIGHTAucune nouvelle capacité au-delà de 2018
Illustration of
supply growth
45.0 based upon 4.0
Annual change in BCP capacity existing capacity
announcements
40.0 BSKP
Annual change in capacity (million tonnes)
3.5
BHKP
Total capacity (million tonnes)
35.0 3.0
30.0 2.5
25.0 2.0
20.0 1.5
15.0 1.0
10.0 0.5
5.0 0.0
0.0 -0.5
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: Hawkins Wright
HAWKINS WRIGHTConsolidation
Capacity '000 t/y
2018
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Suzano/Fibria (50% of Veracel)
IP (excl. Ilim)
Arauco (50% of MdP)
Paper Excellence (incl. Eldorado)
CMPC
APRIL
Metsa Group
UPM-Kymmene
Georgia Pacific
Stora Enso (50% of MdP and…
BSKP
APP (excl. Paper Excellence) Combined market share of Fibria & Suzano,
Ilim 2017
Domtar BHKP
Sodra North
America
Mercer
UKP
79%
Klabin
Resolute Forest Products
Cenibra BCTMP
Canfor Corporation
Asia Latin America Global
West Fraser (50% of Cariboo) 45%
43% 45%
Europe
37%
NewCo (Suzano & Fibria). 2018
16% of BCP mkt
28% of BHKP mkt HAWKINS WRIGHT
42% of BEKP mktManque de fibre en Asie… et ailleurs?
South East Asian woodchip supply
By country of origin, 2005-2016
25.0 2016 demand
Other
6%
20.0
million bdmt
15.0
China
10.0
Japan 48%
46%
5.0
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
Australia South Africa Latam Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Other
Source: Hawkins Wright
Major supply trends:
Vietnam & Thailand: likely to remain stable, at best
Australia: forecast to decline by as much as 30% post 2020 as substantial land areas returned to agriculture
Latam: new pulp mills in Uruguay and Chile will restrict export availability
HAWKINS WRIGHTEquilibre offre/demande théorique
toutes pâtes confondues, 2008-2022
98
96
94 • This is first time in more
Shipment as % of capacity
than 15 years where
92 investment in new
capacity appears slower
than “trend” demand
90
88 • BUT this is NOT a
forecast! Price
mechanism always
86
influences supply and
demand to restore
84 balance.
82
Source: Hawkins Wright
Includes all chemical pulps (BCP, UKP and dissolving wood pulp)
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