4th September 2020 - Wilson James

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4th September 2020

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HIGHLIGHTS
    •   Worldwide cases of COVID-19 have now surpassed 26 million, with deaths numbering 873,285 according
        to Worldometer. 18,665,737 people have so far recovered from the virus.

    •   Results from a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between August 31st and September 1st for the upcoming
        US Presidential election has found that 40% of registered voters support Trump and 47% have said they
        will vote for Joe Biden. 78% of those surveyed were ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ concerned about COVID-19,
        whilst only 8% of American adults listed crime as being a top priority, an issue which Biden is considered
        to be weak on. 30% listed the economy or jobs as their top priority and 16% listed their top priority as
        the healthcare system.

    •   On September 1st it was reported that Apples market-value has now surpassed the combined value of
        the UK’s 100 biggest publically listed companies, known as the FTSE 100 index. This year Apples share
        price has risen by 75% and in August became the first company to receive a $2 trillion valuation.

    •   On September 1st the World Health Organisation announced that 76 wealthy companies have signed up
        to their COVAX scheme. The COVAX scheme is a global COVID-19 vaccine allocation plan which seeks to
        help buy and fairly distribute COVID-19 vaccines. Under the scheme the WHO hopes to buy and
        distribute 2 billion doses of an approved vaccine by the end of 2021 and has sought to secure 230 billion
        doses for Africa alone.

    •   India continues to struggle to manage its COVID-19 response with the worst increase in infections over a
        24-hour period ever reported globally. See our Insight addressing the under reporting of COVID-19
        deaths in India.

    •   Hopes were lifted in Lebanon, Thursday September 3rd, when a sniffer dog brought in with a search
        team from Chile detected the presence of a potential survivor of the huge blast that rocked Beirut on
        August 4th. A pulsing signal was then discovered with beats between 18-19 per minute, which some
        suggested may be an unconscious victim. Although finding survivors at this stage is unlikely a man was
        recused from the rubble 27 days after the Haiti earthquake in 2010, with another freed after 15 days.

    •   Germany announces tests carried out on Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, confirmed the
        presence of the nerve agent Novichok. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel stated Navalny had been
        unequivocally poisoned with others suggesting it was another state sanctioned assassination by Russia.

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COVID-19
    TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES                           TOTAL DEATHS                     PATIENTS RECOVERED
            26,475,568                                873,285                             18,665,737

   04.09.2020 - Worldometer

    COVID-19 – UK

    •    The total confirmed UK COVID-19 cases as of September 4th is 340,411 with 41,527 deaths according to
         GOV.UK. As of September 3rd the European for Disease Prevention and Control have reported the 14-
         day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 to be 26.4.

    •    A new governmental department opened this week, promising to protect “the world’s poorest” from
         the pandemic and from famine. This new department, named the Foreign, Commonwealth and
         Development Office, was created through the merging of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and
         the Department for International Development (DfID). Lead minister Dominic Raab has announced a
         fund of £119m to put towards its goals, targeting developing countries which have particularly struggled
         with the coronavirus outbreak, such as Yemen and Somalia. To read an article written previously by
         Wilson James on the formation of the FCDO please visit here.

    •    Some lockdown restrictions have been re-imposed in Glasgow and its surrounds following a rise in cases
         earlier this week. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon explained that 135 of 314 new cases were traced back
         to the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area, which Ms Sturgeon believes could be attributed to household
         visits. The new rules therefore restrict residents from visiting another household indoors or hosting
         members of another household. Those in extended households are still permitted to visit each other,
         and people from different households are still able to meet outside. The rules are now in effect as of
         midnight on Wednesday 2nd September, and will be in place for at least a fortnight with a review to take
         place in one week.

     •   The Scottish and Welsh Governments have also announced that a quarantine period of 14 days will be
         imposed on people travelling from Greece and Portugal, effective from 04:00 on Thursday 3rd September.
         Officials have noted a “significant rise” in cases being brought back from people who have travelled to
         Greece, particularly tourists visiting the islands. The travel company Tui has confirmed that a passenger
         flying from Zante to Glasgow on Sunday August 23rd had since tested positive for the virus.

     •   Costa Coffee is set to cut 1,650 jobs in the UK. In a statement posted to the company website, a
         spokesperson wrote that the “ongoing impact of Covid-19 remains challenging for the brand”, forcing the
         coffee giant to “make difficult decisions to ensure that as many jobs as possible are protected long-
         term”.

     •   A regional lockdown in the Greater Manchester area has been re-imposed after being lifted 12 hours
         prior in one of the government’s latest U-Turns.

     •   200 people from a Wizz Air flight from Crete to the UK are being tracked down by health officials after
         British authorities failed to alert passengers that eight others flying on the plane had tested positive for
         COVID-19.

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•   Heathrow airport has announced it has entered into a consultation period with unions to discuss
         compulsory pay cuts to 15- 20% of its staff or face redundancy. 4,700 employees are at risk of losing their
         jobs or potentially being re-hired under a new contract with reduced pay. The COVID-19 pandemic has
         cost the airport over £1bn since March and has seen passenger numbers drop 82% in August compared
         to figures over the same period the previous year.

    COVID-19- OTHER COUNTRIES

    Africa
    The number of confirmed cases in Africa continues to rise. However, the continent only accounts for
    approximately 5 per cent of the cases globally. According to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and
    Prevention (Africa CDC), on Monday, September 1st, the total number of infections in the continent surpassed
    1.2 million. Southern Africa has recorded the highest numbers of infections, followed by Northern Africa,
    Western Africa, and Eastern Africa.

    Scientists are exploring reasons to explain Africa’s unique low death rate. For months health experts have
    been warning of a potentially explosive situation in Africa due to the abundance of crowded townships and
    urban areas. As well as the relatively poor hygiene in many areas. Additionally, many communities lack the
    ability to social distance, with large families often sharing a single room. While many have speculated that
    deaths are being under reported on the continent; however, even when numbers are increased, by a factor of
    two, South Africa, for example, performs incredibly well when compared with countries in Europe.

    Australia
    On the weekend beginning August 29th, Australia’s Victoria state reported its lowest rise in new COVID-19
    cases, authorities also announced that measures are forecast to remain unchanged until further notice. In
    neighbouring New South Wales, health officials in Sydney issued a public health alert following a new cluster
    of infections, which has grown to more than 25 infections and is believed to have originated from gyms in
    the city. In a bid to protect the elderly population, NSW Health is urging residents and people working in the
    Greater Sydney metropolitan area and Central Coast not to visit aged care facilities until at least September
    12th.

    Canada
    On September 2nd, Canada recorded just under 500 new cases of the COVID-19, bringing the country’s total
    to just shy of 130,000. Quebec remains the worst-hit province with more than 60,000 infections. Due to a rise
    in cases over the past two weeks, Premier François Legault warned Quebecers that a lockdown could be re-
    imposed if individuals fail to comply with the restrictions. In different news, Canada secured deals with
    Novavax and Johnson & Johnson, two companies working on a possible vaccine for COVID-19. Weeks ago,
    Canada signed two other procurement agreements with Pfizer and Moderna to secure a potential vaccine. In
    relation to this, more than 150 vaccines are being tested and developed across the globe.

    Meanwhile, to limit the spread of the disease, authorities have extended restrictions on international travel
    until at least September 30th. Anyone arriving in the country is also required to quarantine for 14 days on
    arrival.

    Cuba
    Students across much of Cuba returned to school on September 1st after having been away for five months
    with COVID-19 seen to be under control. However, students in Havana, as well as municipalities in four other
    provinces will continue to attend classes online due to current outbreaks of the virus.

    Ecuador
    On Saturday, August 26th, the Institute of Microbiology of the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Ecuador,
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reported the first case of reinfection. According to the institute, the patient was first infected in May and then
    again in August. Other countries across the globe, including Hong Kong, the Netherlands and Belgium, have
    also reported reinfections. As of September 3rd, Ecuador surpassed 115,000 confirmed cases, whilst the death
    toll has passed 6,500. The worst-affected city remains the country’s capital, Quito, with more than 21,500
    cases.

    Finland
    Since its launch on the August 31stover a quarter of Finland’s 5.5 million citizens downloaded the countries
    contact tracing app. As of writing Finland have had 8,200 cases of COVID-19 and 336 deaths.

    France
    Despite a rise in infections, the daily death toll remains low. In the French capital, face masks are now
    mandatory outdoors in streets and other public spaces. The measure covers Paris as well the three
    departments of Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine and Val-de-Marne. Previously, the mask order only applied
    to certain areas of the capital. Elsewhere in France, Nice, Toulouse, and Marseille, have already made face
    coverings mandatory in outdoor spaces.

    India
    India continues to be one of the worst affected nations in the continent and the world with more than
    3,773,000 infections and 66,490 deaths. On August 30th, the country recorded over 78,700 new COVID-19
    infections, resulting in the worst 24-hour increase ever reported globally. This was then topped on September
    2nd with an increase of 82,206. After the United States, Brazil and Mexico, India is the fourth country with the
    highest number of COVID-19 related deaths.

    Ten members of the Great Andamanese tribe in India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, have tested positive for
    COVID-19, growing concerns about the repercussions of the current health emergency on vulnerable
    indigenous groups in the remote archipelago. Although the Andaman and Nicobar Islands have so far reported
    more than 2,000 cases, these are the first infections on record among one of the Particularly Vulnerable Tribal
    Groups (PVTGs) living on the islands. The Great Andamanese primitive tribe counts just over 50 members. The
    virus has already affected tribes elsewhere such as in Peru and Brazil.

    Indonesia
    Indonesia has reached more than 180,000 cases and 7,600 deaths. On Saturday, August 29th, the country
    reported the biggest rise in transmissions for the third consecutive day. The Eijkman Institute for Molecular
    Biology, a laboratory in Jakarta, recently announced that a mutation of the virus was found in collected
    samples. Scientists at the institute believe that the strain is more infectious but additional research is required
    to determine whether this strain is responsible for the upsurge in cases.

    To assist Indonesian authorities’ fight against the virus, the Australian government announced that they will
    provide 2 million Australian dollars’ worth of personal protective equipment, such as gloves and
    thermometers, to the Indonesian military.

    Israel
    Health authorities in Israel reported 1,942 new infections on Wednesday September 2nd, bringing the total
    number of cases in the country to 118,538.

    The virus is also spreading through Gaza at an alarming rate with approximately 300 new cases in less than a
    week. In response to the outbreak, a state of emergency is in place in the territory. In similar news, the
    Palestinian militant group Hamas agreed, at the beginning of the week, to accept a ceasefire agreement with
    Israel in exchange for a cash infusion, medical supplies, and equipment from Qatar. The financial grant to Gaza
    will be reportedly distributed to families affected by the virus.

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Iraq
    Iraq has also seen a regular increase in COVID-19 infections. The majority of the cases in the country have
    been recorded in Baghdad, Basrah, Kerbala and Sulaymaniya. It is reported that although the Government of
    Iraq has conducted over 1.5 million COVID-19 tests on its 40 million population. Authorities are, however,
    struggling to make people comply with the health measures and restrictions. For example, on Sunday, August
    30th, thousands of Shia pilgrims gathered in Karbala to mark Ashura in one of the largest Muslim gatherings
    since the pandemic began.

    Morocco
    Morocco has recorded over 1,000 new infections on September 2nd, raising the total confirmed cases in the
    country to over 65,000. Authorities in the country have also warned of the possibility of a re-imposed
    lockdown if cases continue to spike. At the beginning of the week, in neighbouring Algeria, authorities
    confirmed more COVID-19 restrictions will be eased this month. This includes lifting a ban on cultural
    activities. Algeria has so far reported more than 45,000 infections and around 1,500 deaths.

    Myanmar
    In Myanmar, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that restrictions imposed on incoming visitors will be
    extended until at least September 30th. Rakhine province, which is home to 130,000 Rohingya Muslims
    displaced by conflict and living in refugee camps, is one of the poorest states in the country. Rakhine has
    emerged as a COVID-19 hotspot and mid-last week it was put under a strict lockdown and overnight curfew.

    The Myanmar government have also imposed mandatory quarantine and COVID-19 testing for anyone wishing
    to visit the country’s capital Naypyitaw.

    New Zealand
    New Zealand have reported an ‘unprecedented’ rise in demand for social welfare during the first month of
    lockdown, seeing a 12% rise in those claiming benefits. The Ministry for Social Development has since said the
    jump in April was the biggest monthly rise in 24 years.

    South Africa
    South Africa continues to be the worst-affected state across the continent where cases have exceeded
    627,000. Despite this, health authorities confirmed that the country has registered a recovery rate of 86 per
    cent with more than 540,000 patients having recovered from the disease. The number of new cases is also
    decreasing.

    Uganda
    In Uganda, Kampala Metropolitan Police arrested more than 500 people in operations against breaches of
    Ministry of Health directives on prevention of COVID-19. This includes individuals who were travelling during
    curfew hours or not abiding to face covering orders. At the start of the pandemic, Uganda introduced one of
    the most stringent COVID-19 lockdowns in Africa. Although, activists believe that these restrictions have led to
    human rights violations. For example, individuals have reportedly been killed for breaking curfews.
    Most measures started to be relaxed in June and recent figures indicate that Uganda has performed better
    than other African nations in terms of testing for the virus. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Uganda has
    reportedly performed more than 350,000 tests on its population that counts 45 million people. The Ministry
    of Health confirmed that so far approximately 3,100 people have tested positive for the virus.

    United States of America
    On September 3rd, the United States surpassed 6,290,000 million COVID-19 infections. Infection surges have
    been reported in several universities and schools in different states. The University of Alabama at Birmingham,
    the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of Central Florida have reported the highest
    infection spikes.

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Useful Information Sources
              ➢ UK wide – Public Health England
              ➢ Scotland – Scottish Government
              ➢ Northern Ireland – NISRA
              ➢ COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales – ONS
              ➢ COVID-19 Statistics – Worldometer – Johns Hopkins University

    WORLD NEWS
    Bulgaria
    Protests against the Bulgarian government have continued with the largest demonstration for two months
    occurring on September 2nd, seeing thousands protest in the capital Sofia. Protesters are calling for the
    resignation of three times elected Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and his government, having accused them of
    failing to fight corruption in the country, the European Union’s poorest. In response to the protests, the ruling
    GERB party have said that they ‘will not bend to pressure and resign’.

    Cambodia
    A former senior official of the Khmer Rouge, known as Comrade Duch, has died in hospital aged 77. Duch,
    real name Kaing Geuk Eav, had been serving a life sentence since 2012 after being convicted by a UN-
    sanctioned court for crimes against humanity during Pol Pot’s brutal regime in the 1970s. Duch ran Tuol
    Sleng prison, also known as S-21, which was the Khmer Rouge’s most notorious torture site where at least
    15,000 men, women, and children were sent after being deemed enemies of the state. The majority of these
    prisoners were tortured and executed. It is thought that as many as two million people died under the
    regime across Cambodia.

    Denmark
    The Danish Government recently announced its intention to reform their current sexual assault laws to make
    consent rather than sexual violence the basis for determining rape. Currently victims have to show threats of
    violence were used for the attack to be classified as rape. Consent must now be given voluntarily and “be an
    expression of free will” the government stated. The announcement was welcomed by the country’s women’s
    group with The Danish Women’s Society calling it a “historic victory for legality and the right to take sexual
    decisions”.

    France
    The French trial against 14 terror suspects accused of helping to plan and carry out the Charlie Hebdo
    newspaper and kosher supermarket attacks in Paris in 2015 got underway on Wednesday September 2nd. All 3
    gunmen died during the attack along with 17 people. Brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi gunned down 12
    people at the newspaper’s offices before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing. Amedy Coulibaly stormed the Hyper
    Cacher supermarket, killing four hostages and was believed to be responsible for the death of a police officer
    the day before. Investigators spent weeks unravelling the network of criminals and friends linking the three
    attackers. By then Coulibaly’s wife had left for Syria with the help of two brothers also charged in the case
    (who will be tried in absentia). The majority of those standing trial will claim they did so unwittingly.

    India
    The Indian government announced on September 1st that Chinese troops had engaged in what was described
    as ‘provocative action’ on the disputed border between India and China. The two countries are currently in
    talks with one another to de-escalate tensions along the border.

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Israel
    A weeklong escalation of tensions between Israel and Gaza’s ruling party, Hamas, is thought to be de-
    escalating after Hamas and the Israeli government agreed to end rising unrest along the Israeli-Gaza border. In
    talks mediated by a Qatari envoy Hamas have agreed to end the launching of incendiary balloons into Israel,
    which has been met in response by Israeli airstrikes. The agreement between the two sides will also see
    Gaza’s main goods crossing reopen and the allowing of fisherman to fish up to 15 nautical miles from the Gaza
    coast.

    Japan
    One person has been rescued by the Japanese coastguard after a cargo ship went missing during a typhoon.
    There were 43 crew members and 6000 cattle on board. The livestock vessel had sent a distress signal after
    being caught up in Typhoon Maysak in the East China Sea. The rescued crew member said the vessel capsized
    due to engine failure following impact from a large wave.

    Russia
    The German government has said samples taken from Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, showed the
    presence of the nerve agent Novichok. Navalny, a corruption investigator and fierce critic of Russian President
    Vladimir Putin, is currently in hospital in Berlin receiving treatment after falling ill on a flight back to Moscow
    from Serbia and is believed to have been poisoned. Russian doctors who initially treated Navalny in Serbia
    disagree with the diagnosis stating their tests had come back negative for poison. The German government
    will discuss the test results with the EU and NATO before agreeing on ‘a joint response’. In light of the
    accusations concerning the use of the schedule 1 chemical, Novichok, the Organisation for the Prohibition of
    Chemical Weapons released a statement saying ‘any poisoning of an individual through the use of a nerve
    agent is considered a use of chemical weapons. Such an allegation is a matter of grave concern’.

    Slovakia
    A businessman was cleared Thursday September 3rd of the killings of a Slovakian journalist and his partner in
    their homes 2 years ago. It is thought journalist Jan Kuciak was carrying out an investigation into Italian mafia
    corruption and its connections to the then Prime Minister Robert Fico. The killings prompted mass protests
    and saw the collapse of the coalition government. Judge Ruzena Sabova announced the verdict citing lack of
    evidence to convict.

    Sudan
    A peace agreement was signed on August 31st which has seen the country take a step closer to ending the civil
    conflict which has killed more than 300,000 and displayed 2.5 million since 2003. The peace agreement has
    seen Sudan’s current government sign a deal with three major groups, however, two of the largest factions in
    Darfur and the south have not signed which could present further issues for the government.

    A state of emergency has been declared in Sudan following severe flooding. Almost 400,000 people have been
    affected by the deluge and at least 90 people have died. UN figures say that heavy rains caused the Nile to rise
    to record levels and has left around 2000 essential water sources contaminated or broken.

    Taiwan
    The Republic of China, commonly known as Taiwan, has announced a decision to change the design of its
    passport in order to avoid confusion with the People’s Republic of China. The government have complained
    that Taiwanese citizens are encountering problems when entering countries due to being mistaken as Chinese
    nationals. New passport designs, to be implemented in January 2021, will make the word Taiwan bigger on
    the passport and will put the words ‘Republic of China’, previously at the top of the passport, in smaller
    writing around the Taiwanese national emblem. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has called
    the move ‘petty’.

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INSIGHTS
   Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These
   publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.

   THE RETURN OF EXTINCTION REBELLION

   “XR’s Back – Sound the Alarm!” Environmental activist group Extinction Rebellion (XR) have announced a
   return to protesting against climate change after months of lockdown. The group gained international
   recognition – or notoriety, to some - in 2019 as the group organised several small-scale and large-scale
   demonstrations in cities across the world, attracting crowds of thousands of protesters and causing major
   disruption to businesses and transport. London was particularly affected as activists occupied locations across
   the capital for ten days during April and again during two weeks of global action in October.

   The COVID-19 pandemic may have put a stop to XR events earlier this year, but the activist group say
   campaigning against climate change is as important as ever. The group has planned two weeks of civil
   disobedience for “September Rebellion”, with events planned in London, Manchester, and Cardiff. With the
   pandemic still ongoing, can their tactics be as effective as last year? Read more.

   DO HIGH LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT REALLY FUEL CIVIL UNREST?

   Jobless figures are at record levels in countries around the world. Both the UK and US are struggling with huge
   levels of unemployment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, not seen since the 1980s in the UK, and is only
   going to get worse as the furlough scheme comes to an end. During the months since lockdown finished, the UK
   and the US has seen an increase in protests from #BlackLivesMatter to those disillusioned at the state for their
   response to the pandemic fuelled by months of confinement. While the global political map is changing and
   tensions rise after COVID-19 due to fiscal constraints and perceived opportunities, within and between
   countries, global unrest looks to be reaching pre-pandemic levels. What is not clear is whether the scale of
   unrest is entirely politically motivated and instigated or if there is a growing up-swell of explicit unhappiness
   within populations. While unrest in Hong Kong seems to have subsided due to an authoritarian crackdown,
   other countries such as Belarus are seeing a greater degree of protest, with alleged foreign actors playing their
   part. Each country seems to have their own issues, but relatively stable developed countries are also seeing an
   increased level of outspokenness.

   It is a basic tenet of life for most that working for a living provides security and the ability to buy food and
   shelter. If a person does not have a job, then they must rely on the state to pay for their welfare. Developed
   economies will have a welfare system that aims to plug the income gap between periods of unemployment, but
   it does not cover everyone. In the UK, it is a slogan of far-right extremists that immigration workers take British
   jobs. Ethnic minorities also claim to be stigmatised out of certain job sectors by virtue of their race rather than
   their lack of training and skills. Civil unrest is caused by ideological differences but for a person to be willing to
   voice their concern they have to be willing and driven enough to go up against the state. In each country the
   repercussions are different, with certain countries undertaking a more authoritarian approach than others.
   More often than not it is the countries with the greatest police violence that see the greatest levels of protest.

   Increased levels of unemployment in specific populations such as high youth unemployment, specifically
   educated younger people, seems to be a key factor in leading to civil disorder. Research suggests high levels of
   unemployed graduates, disillusioned by unfulfilling jobs, are more likely to instigate protests than those
   dependant on state hand-outs but actively looking for work to provide for their families. In more developed
   countries it is the better off and politically intelligent class that are actually more motivated to protest and fuel
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unrest than those that are suffering purely financial hardship. As social distancing eases and lockdowns relax,
   protests may move from online forums to the streets and it is likely levels of civil unrest will increase as a result.

   UNDER REPORTING OF COVID-19 DEATHS IN INDIA
   India has surpassed 3 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 but has only reported around 57,000 deaths. While
   they have overtaken the UK’s death toll of around 41,500, their actual death rate is much lower. The death rate
   in India stands at 34 people per million, compared to the UK’s figure of around 600 people per million. There
   are worries that actually the low death rate is not proportionate for the population and masks an undercurrent
   of misreporting and incorrect diagnoses.

   Under-reporting of the COVID-19 total death toll has been scrutinised in countries all around the world. Even
   the death rate in the UK is much higher at this time of year compared to last year than has been accounted for
   yet by current official COVID-19 figures. Many epidemiologists have explained away some of India’s low death
   rate due to a young population and better immunity, as the elderly are typically more vulnerable. This follows a
   pattern similar in South Asian countries that share a similar demographic of a young population and lower
   deaths per million due to COVID-19. China appears to buck this trend with a figure of 3 deaths per million,
   which appears erroneous given the size of the population and well publicised origin of the virus.

   India has not seen any flattening of their curve with the number of confirmed cases continuing to rise from the
   end of March. They are now ahead of both the US and Brazil over a seven-day rolling average. However, many
   states in India, are in contravention of the World Health Organisation guidelines by not adding suspected cases
   in their final count. Also, a number of states are not attributing many deaths to COVID-19 but to the patients’
   underlying conditions. This is an important point to note and one that has led to different interpretations across
   the world. There have also been discrepancies between the official number of virus counts and the counts from
   crematoria and burial grounds in some cities.

   Reports from Tanzania for instance suggest a systemic level of under reporting of COVID-19 deaths due to
   corrupt officials. GPs in the UK however, have been told that it is possible to use COVID-19 as an underlying
   condition and have been told to use this where there is a high instance of COVID-19, such as many cases
   reported in the same care home, thereby increasing the likelihood of a high death toll caused by the virus. If
   countries are not adhering to the same standard of classification, then there will be a high level of discrepancy
   as to which countries actually have the most cases. It may not be possible to gauge the true extent of COVID-19
   deaths until long after the pandemic is over, and data can be collated of actual excess deaths. However, if
   countries use different methodologies to determine whether a death is due to COVID-19 then the true picture
   of the disease may never be truly known and merely an indication based on what a particular government want
   to become public information. Official figures can be manipulated to make one country appear to be handling
   the pandemic better than another, or to try and increase fear to better control a population.

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COVID19@wilsonjames.co.uk / riskadvisory@wilsonjames.co.uk

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