A Market Unleashed - Nest Egg News April 2015
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Nest Egg News April 2015
A Market Unleashed
I love nothing more than throwing the ball for my dog Imagine the market’s confusion therefore when Yellen
and watching her run for it, legs scrabbling, hair billowing, said last month that a rate rise “could be warranted at any
tongue lolling from her mouth, unfettered by leash or meeting” and that any future decision would be based on
physical boundaries. While I would never laugh out loud, economic data? Hang on, how do we read that, where do
her ball chasing is particularly amusing when she is due for we run, where is the ball going to land? What the Fed’s
a groom and the wind doesn’t quite part her hair enough congressional testimony basically means is that their target
for her to get a good fix on the ball. Then she charges, interest rate will be held at 0-0.25%. While they plot their
stops, looks this way and that, charges forward again with next move – and we will hear about that move along with
real purpose ... only she hasn’t realised that she is still 20 everyone else – they will monitor inflation, jobs, global
metres away from her target. growth and financial markets, and keep a very close eye on
the two things they are supposed to be managing – inflation
I think I’ve just described world share markets over the and employment. They probably won’t lift interest rates
past three months! It has been exhilarating to watch in April, but they might. In April, they will come out with
them and sometimes the ball-catching prowess (or another opinion and it could well be different from how they
share price performance) has been stellar indeed. But are feeling today. And they could introduce yet another
the market definitely needs some help because for all phrase that the market will interpret, and reinterpret and run
its boisterous enthusiasm, the balls are being thrown all off to chase.
over the place and the big throw, the one markets are
really waiting for – rising US Federal Reserve interest Whether US interest rates rise or not isn’t that important
rates – is just not coming. in the scheme of things. What does matter is that they are
right for the conditions at hand. If they are increased too
Honestly, markets have been just like my dog – running soon, then the burgeoning economic growth, consumer
hard in the direction they think the ”ball” will go, then confidence and business certainty could be snuffed out and
retracing their steps when they realise the ball hasn’t been nobody in the world wants that. It is a fine balancing act and
thrown yet. It has been a bit ridiculous frankly, reading I guess to some extent, it is understandable that without any
headlines explaining each day’s market movements with other major distractions (positive or negative), markets are
reference to something the Fed said or inferred. focused unreasonably on every Fed move.
The biggest signal during March was the removal of the But you know, even if I intended to throw the ball twenty
reference to the word ”patience” by Janet Yellen, chair of metres to the North-West, and I yelled loudly “the ball’s over
the Federal Reserve. Just to recap, for most of last year, there!” the dog wouldn’t get it, would she?
Fed statements said interest rates would stay low for “a
considerable time” after quantitative easing had come Carmel Fisher
to an end. In December, the language was swapped out; Managing Director
“considerable time” was replaced with a pledge to be
“patient” in raising interest rates, and that was further
defined as a “couple of meetings” or two months. So most
market watchers assumed that come February/March, the
word patient would go, and the gradual rise in US interest
rates (which remember, are not a bad thing in their own
right) would begin.
Your KiwiSaver Portfolios
Highlights and Lowlights
»» We added three quality stocks to our international portfolios - Mastercard, Nike, and Alibaba. You can read
more about why we have invested in Nike in A bird’s eye view on page 4. Now that the IPO hype has passed
we have also initiated a position at a more favourable entry point in Alibaba after initially about missing out
on an allocation during the IPO.
»» Our property and infrastructure portfolios ended the month down slightly. A strong share price performance
by Zurich Airport (+12%) on the back of better than expected financial results was negated by Union Pacific
falling 10% as investors reacted to bleaker updates from two other US railroad companies and the faster
than expected recovery in performance of its direct competitor BNSF.
»» Despite a flat March, the Australian market concluded its strongest quarter since the GFC. Our Australian
portfolios performed comparatively well on exceptional performances from Bursons (investors recognising
growth potential), ResMed (new product success and reduced regulatory pricing pressure), Ansell (solid
operating performance and attractive acquisition) and CSG. Medibank drifted backwards as Australians
bought cheaper health insurance with lower coverage, while investors continued to express scepticism
around Ingenia’s execution ability.
»» Our New Zealand portfolios underperformed the broader New Zealand share market predominantly due
to the share prices of our three biggest holdings falling. While Ryman Healthcare and F&P Healthcare fell
on no news, Mainfreight’s share price came under pressure as the company lowered short-term earnings
expectations for FY2015, but retains a positive outlook for FY2016. While new online entrants revealed &
revised pricing and content, Sky TV was the Fund’s best performer over the month (and best for the broader
NZ market) providing total shareholder return of 8%.
Learning to love Banks
By Manuel Greenland
Senior Portfolio Manager, Australian Equities
We added ANZ and Westpac to our Australian portfolios
in March. The first “S” in our stock-ranking STEEPP
process stands for “Strengths”, or characteristics that
allow a company to earn superior profits over time.
Typically bank profits follow general economic conditions,
and are vulnerable to cycles in interest rates, income
and inflation. So typically, banks would not meet our
investment criteria.
How come we’ve added them then?
Recognising the quality of their risk management systems,
The four major Australian banks are far from typical. As a
regulators allow the large banks to lend more per dollar of
group they are super-dominant in areas critical to banking
invested capital, boosting profits and growth potential. As
success. They represent 80% of banking sector assets, 80%
a result the major banks have earned significantly higher
of total deposits and 86% of sector profits. The four majors
returns than competitors over time.
hold this share against 17 other Australian banks and 47
foreign banks! The major banks’ strengths are in some ways also their
risks. To some extent they have become victims of their
The major Australian banks enjoy significant strengths.
own success as their dominant position and relevance
Their key advantage is their scale. They have large stable
to the economy has made them subject to significant
bases of deposit accounts, giving them a cheap and
regulatory oversight, and made their high profile brands
ready source of funds. This in turn supports their ability
vulnerable to reputational risk.
to offer borrowers loans at attractive interest rates, while
still lending profitably and winning market share. Besides Nevertheless, we conclude that their key strengths explain
great lending businesses, they have diversified earnings by the superior performance of this exclusive club. To enable
developing considerable wealth management, advisory and our investors to participate in this success, we’ve selected
insurance enterprises. The big banks can also spread costs those banks with the best earnings prospects and most
over larger operations, resulting in superior cost efficiency. attractive long-term returns for our Australian portfolios.
2 FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS
Sell the rumour, buy the fact
By Carmel Fisher, Managing Director
Many investors will have heard of the investing maxim
“sell the rumour, buy the fact”. The saying comes from the
phenomenon where buyers push a price up in anticipation
of a big news event and then (often) sell off immediately
after the announcement. Examples are most often seen in Why did the share price bounce, and should we have held
technology stocks where “big” new products are rumoured off our selling to enjoy this bounce? Of course it would have
to be released that will dramatically change the whole been nice to have sold at a higher price, but our investment
industry. Exact product details are not known, but the hype approach dictates that when we have lost confidence in the
machine goes into overdrive and investors pile into the investment thesis of a company, we will sell immediately,
stock, sure that the new product will be a king hit. Once the and look to reinvest the proceeds in a company for which we
details of the product are actually revealed, the reaction can have a higher conviction.
go one of three ways – the product is announced and it is
even better than expected, so the price goes ballistic; the
product announcement is underwhelming and the share
price collapses; or the product is good but only as good as
expected, and the price falls. We can’t buy on hope
We have seen a couple of examples of this phenomenon in or expectation; we
the New Zealand share market recently, and one impacted a
portfolio holding of ours. insist on buying on
The first example was Pumpkin Patch, a company that we
used to own and still keep an interested eye on. Their profit
knowledge and belief
result was an improvement, albeit from a low base, but it
was the Chairman’s comments that “interested parties”
were sniffing around the company that led to its share price We watched the share price rebound after our selling, and
rallying 33%. Once the Chairman subsequently doused a number of our team scratched their heads as to why,
market speculation, confirming that buyer interest was at a with no new information to digest, the market thought the
very early stage and might not come to anything, the share shares were worth more? There had been some solid profit
price came back down to earth. results from other retailers and that might have led some
In the case of our erstwhile portfolio company, Kathmandu, investors to think Kathmandu might redeem themselves
the company warned late last year that Christmas sales – despite the company saying otherwise. Regardless, the
might be disappointing, and followed up with a shocker company released its earnings result on March 24 saying
earnings warning in February. We had given the company that conditions remained tough, and the share price
the benefit of the doubt in December, but by February immediately retraced several weeks’ gains.
with a share price some 26% lower, we started to sell our Our approach is to ignore the rumour and act only on fact.
holding, having lost confidence in our ability to predict the We will get stocks wrong from time to time; there is no
company’s fortunes with any certainty. We were not alone doubt about that. But the only thing we have to base our
in our selling – Kathmandu is dual listed and a number investment decisions on is our research. We can’t buy on
of Australian institutions were also quick to push the Sell hope or expectation; we insist on buying on knowledge
button. The share price hit a low of $1.39 on February 5 and belief. They are different things.
before rebounding 26% to $1.76 on March 19.
FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS 3
A bird’s eye view
Roger Garrett tells us why we chose to add well-known
consumer company Nike to our international portfolios.
A couple of months ago we wrote about our new 140,000 retail outlets. This network is a huge strength to
investment in Adidas. When we were completing our their brand. Nike’s best in class status and total focus on
competitor analysis we took a liking to Nike. As a result, innovation allows the brand to command a price premium
we have recently introduced Nike to our international over its competitors.
portfolios complementing our Adidas holding.
Nike’s growth potential remains strong
Nike is a name that requires little introduction as The business has an impressive pipeline of new products
the world’s largest sportswear company, designing, that help sustain a competitive advantage as a company
manufacturing and selling high quality footwear, apparel of innovation – running shoes that change colour
and sporting equipment. Nike sells its products under depending how far you run or basketball shoes that tell
the Nike, Jordan, Converse, Nike Golf and Hurley you how high you jump. At a regional level, the fine tuning
brands and is dominant in running, basketball, soccer of their strategy in Western Europe and China, with a
and men’s and women’s training. Additionally, Nike sells premium product focus, is starting to deliver results with
its products in golf, cricket, tennis, lacrosse, volleyball, Nike gaining market share in both regions. On the digital
American football and action sports. front, Nike is heavily involved in the fitness monitoring
Number one for a reason area with running, fitness, soccer and golf apps and a
close tie-up with Apple (Apple CEO Tim Cook is on the
Nike is the global leader in sports footwear and apparel. Nike board). This is potentially a huge growth area with
This leadership is founded on superior technology and the European Commission estimating up to 1.5bln people
product innovation with a key competitive advantage could be using health and fitness apps by 2017 – the basis
coming from working closely with the best athletes for a significant community of interconnected members.
in the world. The insights they develop from these
top athletes together with leading edge technology Clearly, Nike is a great company and a desirable
and research and development are at the heart investment. Nike certainly “walks the walk”. When it
of their product development. Nike is recognised comes to innovation and when combined with its iconic
globally as an iconic sportswear brand through best brand image and total customer focus, we believe Nike
in class technology, product innovation and style is well positioned to maintain its market leading status.
and is supported by sponsorship of premier athletes Furthermore, they are shareholder friendly, returning
and sporting organisations such as Roger Federer, virtually all cash flow back to shareholders via dividends
Kobe Bryant, Christiano Ronaldo and Barcelona and and buybacks. While the stock is not cheap (because
Manchester City football teams. Furthermore Nike investors, justifiably, like the company)we are confident
has huge scale, shifting over 900mln units of product the investment in Nike will deliver strong returns over the
through their supply chain of over 18,000 accounts and medium to long-term.
4 FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS
KiwiSaver classroom
A common question from members at
this time of year is “How is my KiwiSaver
account taxed?”
The Fisher Funds KiwiSaver Scheme is classified as
a Portfolio Investment Entity (or PIE for short) for tax
purposes. The PIE regime was introduced at the same
time as KiwiSaver was launched providing a number of tax
advantages for investors and making the administration of it
all very easy. The key advantages are:
Firstly, there is no tax on gains in New Zealand shares Thirdly, the Scheme takes care of all tax obligations on
and certain Australian shares. Investments in companies behalf of investors so there is nothing to include in your
outside that criterion are taxed as if they have earned personal tax return. As long as we have the correct tax rate
5% total income (regardless of how they have actually (known as your Prescribed Investor Rate or PIR) for you then
performed). Fisher Funds invests in growing companies we claim a tax refund or pay your tax liability on your behalf
which often have a low dividend yield and the majority of and adjust your KiwiSaver account accordingly.
returns come from the increase in the value of the shares.
This is a significant advantage for investors. Calculating your correct PIR
There are three PIR’s available for individuals to choose
Secondly, investors are taxed at their marginal tax rate
from: 10.5%, 17.5% or 28%. The correct rate for you
with a maximum of 28%. For investors on a top personal
depends on your income. To help calculate your PIR use the
income tax rate of 33% this represents a 5% reduction.
following chart:
In either of the last two income In either of the last two income
years was your taxable income years, was your taxable income
NO NO
$14,000 or less and your total $48,000 or less and your total In all other cases
income (including PIE income) income (including PIE income)
$48,000 or less? $70,000 or less?
YES YES
LOW MID TOP
Your PIR is 10.5% Your PIR is 17.5% Your PIR is 28%
If you need to change your PIR, simply download and complete our PIR form from
https://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz/kiwisaver-forms then return it to us.
Managing your KiwiSaver account
Don’t miss out on your annual account for the current KiwiSaver year (1 July 2014 to 30 June
2015) before Friday 26 June 2015.
Government contribution!
You can read more about who is eligible for a MTC, how it is
Sorted have just launched a national campaign to remind
calculated and how to make a payment online at
eligible KiwiSaver members that they can benefit from a $521
https://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz/member-tax-credits.
top-up by the government to their KiwiSaver account.
As a reminder, for every $1 you contribute to your KiwiSaver Changes to KiwiSaver first home
account you’ll receive 50 cents from the Government, up to
a maximum of $521.43 each KiwiSaver year. This generous
buyer rules
KiwiSaver incentive is known as the MTC. As explained in last month’s newsletter, changes to the
way you can use your KiwiSaver account to help buy your
To maximise your full MTC entitlement of $521.43 you need first home came into effect on 1 April 2015. The changes
to have contributed at least $1,042.86 (the equivalent of $20 potentially make it easier to buy your first home. Check out
per week) into your KiwiSaver account. If you haven’t put in https://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz to see how your KiwiSaver
at least this amount already, you can top up your KiwiSaver account may give you a helping hand into your first home.
FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS 5
Fund Facts
Fund Performance to 31 March 2015
Fund After fees & Unit price Since fund Date of
1 month 3 months 12 months 2 years* 3 years* 5 years*
before-tax returns ($) inception* inception
Growth 1.6103 0.0% 5.1% 11.0% 12.8% 12.7% 8.4% 6.6% 1/10/2007
Balanced** 0.2% 4.3% 9.9% 9.8% 10.1% 7.4% 8.2% 12/06/2009
Conservative 1.3839 0.5% 3.6% 8.8% 7.5% 7.9% 6.5% 5.8% 1/06/2009
* Annualised return before tax and after fees
** The Fisher Funds KiwiSaver Scheme does not have a separate Balanced Fund. A Balanced investment strategy is available and reflects a 55% weighting in our Conservative
KiwiSaver Fund and a 45% weighting in our Growth KiwiSaver Fund.
The above returns are based on the percentage change in the unit price of the fund for the period specified, they are not the returns individual investors will receive as this will
depend on the prices at which units are purchased on the date of each individual contribution. Changes in the unit prices reflect changes in the market value of the assets of the fund.
The above returns exclude government contributions and no allowance has been made for monthly administration fees. Returns displayed are after management fees but before tax.
Biggest Holdings as at 31 December 2014
Growth Fund Conservative Fund
Mainfreight 3.7% NZ Govt 2020 3% bonds 6.5%
F & P Healthcare 3.1% Cash Deposit (ANZ) 4.5%
Ryman Healthcare 3.0% NZ Govt 2019 5% bonds 4.1%
Top 10 holdings as % of fund net assets 24.4% Top 10 holdings as % of fund net assets 30.7%
Further information about your KiwiSaver portfolios (including a full breakdown of the portfolio holdings, investment team
profiles and current fund fact sheet) can be found at http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz.
The information and any opinions herein are based upon sources believed reliable, but the Company, its officers and directors make no representations as to its accuracy or
completeness. All opinions reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this publication should
not be used as a basis for making an investment decision about any particular company. Professional investment advice should be taken before making an investment. Past
performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. For an investment statement on any of our funds, please go to our website or call us on 0508 FISHER (0508 347437).
Fund Por Portfolio
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Fisher Funds Management Limited
Registered Office | Fisher Funds Management Limited, Level 1, Crown Centre, 67-73 Hurstmere Road, Takapuna, Auckland 0622
Investor Enquiries | Level 1, Crown Centre, 67-73 Hurstmere Road, Takapuna, Auckland 0622
Postal Address Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740 | Freephone 0800 FFKIWI (0800 335 494)
Telephone 09 445 3377 | Facsimile 09 489 7139 | Email kiwisaver@fisherfunds.co.nz | Website http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz
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