NEST EGG NEWSMAY 2015 - NEST EGG NEWS MAY 2015
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Nest Egg News May 2015
As far as we can see
Winston Churchill said “it is always wise to look ahead, on revenue of $US436 million compared with the expected
but difficult to look further than you can see”. $US456 million? And why did yields of German government
bonds bounce higher after approaching zero earlier in the
Markets have been looking ahead for a long time now,
month? These things didn’t make sense and didn’t align with
and the second-guessing, predicting and forecasting
what markets were expecting, so their immediate reaction
has gathered pace recently because some in the market
was to retreat and wait for clearer signposts.
think they can see change coming and want to prepare
accordingly. Maybe it was less about looking ahead and more about
looking down.
The problem is, it is indeed difficult looking further than we
can see, and our past experiences haven’t offered much You see, some markets and stocks had reached record high
guidance either. The more we look ahead and fail to find levels in April. The NASDAQ index set a new record after
any answers or clear signposts, the more we are inclined to basically doing nothing for fifteen years since the tech boom
retreat to safety until our vision improves. Hence the head and bust. Markets were already considered reasonably fully
scratching when the popular investment bets of the first priced after the run we’ve enjoyed for several years. So
three months turned upside down during April, and the maybe investors became fearful because they are afraid of
sharp price reactions to those companies that fell short of heights? When you’re up in the giddy heights it is easy to
earnings projections, and the handful of client phone calls become well, giddy.
asking whether it’s time to change portfolios “just in case”.
But while it is reasonable to feel scared if you are on a
It’s not as if markets have been entirely transparent and really tall ledge without a railing, it is less reasonable to
predictable – they never are – but you have to admit that fear a fall in financial markets from record highs. Markets
things had been broadly tracking in the right direction so are not subject to the laws of physics, and what goes up
we had at least a degree of visibility. We knew that with does not have to come right down again. Indeed if we are
interest rates remaining low and central banks intent on not careful, we could allow our fear or our desire to look
keeping economies growing, world share markets would further than we can actually see, destabilise our long term
be supported; as long as companies generated profits, investment plans and make us miss our investment goals.
then we would be rewarded through share price growth
There were some odd things that happened during April, but
and increasing dividends. It hasn’t felt risky or too much
fundamentals remain positive and there’s no need to change
of a leap to assume that shares would continue to give us
our longer term expectations.
attractive returns. It has been pretty much a no-brainer to
invest in the US since its economy has been improving by The view, as far as we can see, is still an attractive one.
the month, whereas Europe clearly had a way to go.
Carmel Fisher
But then a few things went awry last month; just enough to Managing Director
put the wind up investors.
Why did Europe suddenly become more popular than the
US resulting in both European shares and currency beating
their American counterparts in April? Why did the oil price
soar 25% after declining 11% in the first three months of
the year? Why did market darling Twitter, whose share price
had rallied 40% in the first quarter, tumble 22% in April
Your KiwiSaver Portfolios
Highlights and Lowlights
»» In New Zealand, Sky TV rallied during the month as investors recognised that the company has inherent
strengths that other competitors cannot easily replicate. Summerset produced strong 1Q numbers for sales
of both new and existing units at its retirement villages. Lastly, the EBOS share price weakened on the back
of uncertainty over the Australian government’s plans to cut costs in the pharmaceutical industry.
»» In Property & Infrastructure, DNZ Property’s quarterly update was flush with good news, with stronger than
expected rental growth translating into healthy property revaluations and increased dividend guidance.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, negative sentiment weighed on the share prices of the
portfolio’s two US railroad investments, with weakness in coal markets resulting in reported quarterly results
for both companies falling short of market expectations.
»» First quarter reporting season has been positive for International portfolio stocks such as Google, eBay,
Plantronics, LKQ and Mastercard. Whereas, Biotest reported that a phase 2 study on a drug it is developing
for rheumatoid arthritis was unsuccessful. Drug development results are binary events and unfortunately the
outcome here was negative.
»» Across the Tasman, Flight Centre rallied on better than expected airline passenger volumes, while Tox Free
Solutions was stronger on improving growth expectations.
»» Global bond markets became more pessimistic as several prominent investors voiced concerns about
return expectations.
Peer analysis
By Manuel Greenland
Senior Portfolio Manager, Australian Equities
Portfolio company Seek dominates the Australian online
employment advertising market with 37 million visits to
its site annually, and a leading 22% share of Australian
job placements. LinkedIn, however, is the global leader
in the space, with 364 million members in over 200
countries forming its network. We follow LinkedIn’s
strategies and performance to develop insights about
our investment in Seek.
In April, LinkedIn announced its acquisition of
Lynda.com, an online education company that helps
users develop the skills needed to get jobs. Jeff Weiner,
CEO of LinkedIn said both company missions were
aligned in seeking to help professionals be better at
what they do. Seek already has a profitable education
division, and uses data collected from job adverts to
customise its education courses. This helps job seekers
to develop marketable skills, and recruiters to better fill Solutions business, which similarly allows recruiters to
vacancies. Seeing LinkedIn imitate Seek by marrying an search a library of candidate CV’s to reach all people
education business to its job advert business adds to our who may suit available jobs. Critically, LinkedIn generates
confidence in Seek’s strategy. 2.6x more revenue in its Talent solutions business than
it does from selling job ads. We quickly recognised that
Seek’s share price recently fell when it announced that Seek’s decision to invest in this technology could pay
short-term profits would be negatively impacted by the off handsomely in long-term growth, and we took the
costs of developing a new Talent Search technology. opportunity to buy into the company.
Talent Search will allow recruiters to search a database of
candidate CV’s to identify and reach all people who may We invest in those businesses whose strengths are likely
suit a job vacancy, instead of only reaching people who to see them larger and more successful over the medium
view and respond to a job advert. We analysed LinkedIn’s term. Thoughtfully comparing the companies we own with
sales strategy to evaluate the wisdom of Seek’s decision. their peers can deliver valuable insights and give us even
In addition to selling job ads, LinkedIn also has a Talent more confidence when they are on the right track!
2 FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS
The bond bull market has continued even as the business
cycle has ebbed and flowed, hence some of us suggesting
that bonds are overvalued. Perhaps it has made sense for
yields to continue to fall in Europe, because the Europeans
are taking the longest to emerge from recessionary
conditions; but the strong bond market in other countries
hasn’t been as easy to understand.
In the last week of April, it looked like the turning point
might have arrived. First off, there was a pronounced rise in
German bund yields. This led to other global bond yields
also rising. Then there were some pronouncements from
Is this the beginning of the end? well-known bond experts saying that this was the beginning
By David McLeish of the end. It even flowed through to Australian banking
Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Interest stocks, whose shares pay attractive dividends, and have
Many commentators (ourselves included) have been cooling benefited strongly from low bond yields. They fell some 5%
on the bull market in bonds for some years now. Just to in just two days.
be clear, a bond bull market is when interest rates, or the Whether or not this is a turning point, investors should
yields on fixed interest investments, fall. As yields fall, prepare themselves for less attractive returns than they have
the value of bonds goes up. As any investor with fixed been used to. For bonds, the ideal (negative) economic
interest investments will know, there has been lots of money conditions for them are not as prevalent right now and
made out of bonds over many years as interest rates have central banks are unlikely to be as quick to underwrite them
continued to fall – some even falling into negative territory as they have in the past. That is not to say that the bond
(where investors pay for the privilege of having their money market will “crash”. As one commentator said this week,
in “safe” bonds!). Bonds tend to perform best in negative bond bull markets tend to end gradually, and then suddenly.
conditions, such as when there is recession or deflation. Last week might well have been the suddenly.
Too Few Eggs
By Murray Brown
Senior Portfolio Manager, New Zealand Equities
The recent resignation of Sir Ron Brierley from the Coats
Group Plc Board (formerly known as Guinness Peat Group
or GPG) brings an end to an era following his 25 years as
a director of the company; 20 years as Chairman. Sir Ron
previously had a 30-year stint at Brierley Investments, a
company he founded in the early 1960’s.
Both Brierley Investments and Guinness Peat Group
were highly successful companies in the early part of
their lives. Each then made one single large investment
that dramatically changed the course of the respective
companies, to the ongoing detriment of shareholder value.
This brings into question the wisdom of having too few
eggs in the basket, a classic investor mistake.
the time of the GFC. This time, the problem was different.
Brierley Investments (now known as Guocoleisure and GPG had no debt, in fact it had considerable cash reserves.
no longer listed on the NZX) made a large investment in Shareholder activism forced changes to the board, and a
a hotel chain called Thistle Hotels that represented over change in strategy – sell off all the investments, focus on
half of its assets at that time. The acquisition was made Coats Group and pay out the excess cash. Unfortunately, the
with debt, just prior to the share market crash of 1987. The strategy hadn’t factored in that the UK Pensions Regulator
acquisition was the company’s undoing. It had to sell off has a different view on the company’s ability to pay out the
virtually all of its other liquid investments to avoid going cash, and this remains the subject of a longstanding and
under. Once New Zealand’s largest company, it is now a unresolved investigation. Although Coats Group remains a
shadow of its former self. sound company, its share price is still less than half what it was
prior to the GFC.
In the case of GPG, the company invested heavily into
Coats Group, the world’s largest thread maker. Again, Two related companies, with a common problem – too few
Coats Group represented around half of GPG’s assets at eggs in the basket, with the big ones stifling the smaller ones.
FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS 3
A bird’s eye view
Senior Portfolio Manager Roger Garrett tells us why we
have recently added Chinese online retailer Alibaba to our
International portfolios.
Alibaba’s Treasures utilise the services of Alibaba to access a wider range and
We recently initiated a position in Alibaba Group, quality of goods than they could otherwise.
the world’s largest e-commerce company. Its total Despite the company’s strong growth to date, less than a
merchandise sales across its various platforms are in quarter of the overall population and only half the number
excess of eBay and Amazon combined. Alibaba is best of online shoppers in China have discovered Alibaba; so
known for Taobao (pronounced tow bow) which is further scope exists.
China’s largest online shopping version of eBay or Trade
Me where it has a 99% market share and Tmall which Why have we waited until now to buy Alibaba?
is China’s online marketplace for retailers, similar to The Alibaba IPO in September 2104 was the biggest in
Amazon where they have nearly 60% market share. The history and was popular to say the least. The IPO price
company dominates online sales in China, the world’s was $US68, it began trading at $US90 and then rallied
largest e-commerce market, matching 334M buyers with 176% before coming back down to the $US80 range.
over 8.5M sellers with over one billion product listings. We were comfortable staying out of the market until the
What attracted us to Alibaba? hype had subsided and the true value of Alibaba could
be identified. A few short-term negative factors that
Alibaba is a market leader with strong moats and a long have led to price weakness and brought the stock into a
growth runway. Their position as the undisputed market more reasonable valuation range have now given us the
leader is assured given both their scale and network is opportunity to buy. Encouragingly the negative factors
virtually impossible to replicate. Alibaba is to Chinese are, in our view, short term and able to be addressed,
e-commerce, what Google is to search. hence our willingness to initiate a position now. The
The macro drivers of Alibaba make it an exciting market has focused on the company’s speed wobbles
investment opportunity. Consumer spending growth as it addresses increasing sales on mobile devices, from
in China is phenomenal with Chinese people joining which they earn a lower margin than from online PC sales.
the middle class resulting in retail spending growth of Facebook, Google and Amazon had similar wobbles
10-12% per year. Chinese e-commerce is growing even which they were able to transition through, and we believe
faster than retail spending since China doesn’t have Alibaba will also. Recent price weakness has offered us an
a lot of stores compared with more developed areas opportunity to invest in a high quality growth company
of the world, particularly outside the major cities. But that has a sustainable competitive advantage and a very
consumers do have PCs and mobile phones and can long growth runway.
4 FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS
What we’re reading ...
This month’s interesting read again came from within challenging to define exactly which companies to screen
our own office, with Director Frank Jasper sharing out in the arms manufacture business given the long
correspondence with a client, Richard, around social and supply chain to this industry, but we focus on those end
ethical investing. of chain manufacturers generating a majority of their
revenues from the supply of arms.
Richard: I am interested to know what steps your company
is taking to divest itself from the fossil fuel industry. You 2. In our company research processes we focus on
may be aware there is a global movement to divest from sustainability from an economic perspective. By
this industry which is a key contributor to the continuing definition this includes cognisance of the social
escalation of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 driving environment in which business operates. This is
climate change. I would appreciate knowing how your important given that socially unacceptable practices,
investment policies align with this strategy. for instance employment of child labour, may negatively
influence the long run franchise of a business and prove
Frank: As you may appreciate this is a very complex area to be a poor investment. To be clear, though, this is not
for us given that we manage the retirement savings of over an ethical judgement rather a judgement about what
250,000 New Zealanders who have diverse views on a range drives the long term profit outlook for a business.
of social, ethical and political issues. The approach we take
to these issues will not please everyone all of the time. We 3. This leads on to a discussion on the “fossil fuels”
have to acknowledge that and find a way forward that fulfils business. At this stage we do not preclude investments
our broad sense of mission as a business and one reflects to this sector. Our judgement call, at least for now, is
the diverse views across our client base. that the weight of our clients, whilst concerned about
the long run impact of fossil fuels on man-made climate
Our approach to date has been to avoid those areas that change, are still comfortable investing in this sector.
prove to be repugnant to a majority of our clients but to Similarly, while acknowledging there is some long
otherwise avoid making less clear ethical judgements. run risk to the outlook for energy businesses, this risk
Allied with this we seek to invest in businesses we regard as is still sufficiently far away that they still represent an
commercially sustainable and that will generate attractive appropriate investment destination from an economic
long term returns for our investors. What does mean in return perspective.
practice?
I hope you understand the necessary juggling act that we
1. We systematically avoid any investment in tobacco face in building portfolios that generate attractive long term
and arms manufacturing businesses. This is a blanket returns in a way that meets the expectations of our clients.
rule across all of our investment strategies. It can prove
Managing your KiwiSaver account
Mail from Fisher Funds
In the second half of May we’ll be sending you your
transaction statement for the quarter ended 30 April 2015 and
It’s now less than two months until the end of the KiwiSaver annual PIE tax statement for the financial year ended 31 March
year so it’s a good time to see if you are on track to make sure 2015. Keep an eye on your email inbox or letterbox.
you get your annual government contribution of $521. As a reminder, the Fisher Funds KiwiSaver Scheme is a
As a reminder, for every $1 you contribute to your KiwiSaver Portfolio Investment Entity and has paid or claimed tax on
account you’ll receive 50 cents from the government, up to your behalf for the year to 31 March 2015. If you had a tax
a maximum of $521.43 - this generous KiwiSaver incentive is liability we have sold units in your KiwiSaver account to that
known as the member tax credit (MTC). Now that’s free stuff dollar value to pay that liability to IRD. Likewise, if you were
worth having! entitled to a refund, we purchased units to that dollar value in
the relevant fund/s.
To maximise your full MTC entitlement of $521.43 you need to
have contributed at least $1,042.86 (the equivalent of $20 per Please note you do not need to include this income in your
week) into your KiwiSaver account. If you have not put in at personal tax return (if you complete one) unless you had tax
least this amount, you can top up your KiwiSaver account for deducted at a rate that was lower than it should have been.
the current KiwiSaver year but make sure you do it by Friday The back page of your annual PIE tax statement contains
26 June 2015. answers to some commonly asked tax questions which you
You can read more online here http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds. may find useful.
co.nz/member-tax-credits about who is eligible for a MTC, You can read more about the PIE tax regime online here
how it is calculated and how to make a payment. www.fisherfunds.co.nz/fisher-funds-faqs.
FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS 5
Fund Facts
Fund Performance to 30 April 2015
Fund after fees & Unit price Since fund Date of
1 month 3 months 12 months 2 years* 3 years* 5 years*
before-tax returns ($) inception* inception
Growth 1.5968 -0.8% 1.1% 9.9% 12.2% 12.1% 8.2% 6.4% 1/10/2007
Balanced** -0.5% 0.9% 8.9% 9.4% 9.7% 7.2% 7.9% 12/06/2009
Conservative 1.3806 -0.2% 0.9% 8.0% 6.9% 7.6% 6.5% 5.6% 1/06/2009
* Annualised return before tax and after fees
** The Fisher Funds KiwiSaver Scheme does not have a separate Balanced Fund. A Balanced investment strategy is available and reflects a 55% weighting in our Conservative
KiwiSaver Fund and a 45% weighting in our Growth KiwiSaver Fund.
The above returns are based on the percentage change in the unit price of the fund for the period specified, they are not the returns individual investors will receive as this will
depend on the prices at which units are purchased on the date of each individual contribution. Changes in the unit prices reflect changes in the market value of the assets of the fund.
The above returns exclude government contributions and no allowance has been made for monthly administration fees. Returns displayed are after management fees but before tax.
Biggest Holdings as at 31 March 2015
Growth Fund Conservative Fund
Mainfreight 3.2% NZ Govt 2020 3% bonds 6.4%
F & P Healthcare 2.6% Lloyds Banking Group 2019 15% bonds 2.9%
Ryman Healthcare 2.5% US Treasury 2024 bonds 2.3%
Cash & cash equivalents 12.3% Cash & cash equivalents 14.2%
Top 10 holdings 24.7% Top 10 holdings 24.9%
Further information about your KiwiSaver portfolios (including a full breakdown of the portfolio holdings, investment team
profiles and current fund fact sheet) can be found at http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz.
The information and any opinions herein are based upon sources believed reliable, but the Company, its officers and directors make no representations as to its accuracy or
completeness. All opinions reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this publication should
not be used as a basis for making an investment decision about any particular company. Professional investment advice should be taken before making an investment. Past
performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. For an investment statement on any of our funds, please go to our website or call us on 0508 FISHER (0508 347437).
Fund Por Portfolio
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u 0800 FFKIWI (0800 Fu335494)
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Fisher Funds Management Limited
Registered Office | Fisher Funds Management Limited, Level 1, Crown Centre, 67-73 Hurstmere Road, Takapuna, Auckland 0622
Investor Enquiries | Level 1, Crown Centre, 67-73 Hurstmere Road, Takapuna, Auckland 0622
Postal Address Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740 | Freephone 0800 FFKIWI (0800 335 494)
Telephone 09 445 3377 | Facsimile 09 489 7139 | Email kiwisaver@fisherfunds.co.nz | Website http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz
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