A Summer Like No Other: Tracking the Disruption of 2020 Through Facebook Advertising Metrics - Aisle Rocket
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A Summer
Like No
Other:
Tracking the Disruption of
2020 Through Facebook
Advertising Metrics.
WHITE PAPER I NOVEMBER 2020
Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
MARCH - MAY
The Beginning of Everything
JUNE - JULY
BLM Protests, Corporate
Solidarity & a Nation Tested
JULY - AUGUST
The Stop Hate for Profit Boycott
Conclusion
Executive Summary
Facebook ad prices and performance took a major hit in
March of 2020, as did the rest of the world’s economy in step
with the outbreak of Covid-19 and the measures introduced
to control it.
The following months in the U.S.
saw widespread protests and
unrest in the wake of the deaths MARCH
of numerous Black citizens at the Facebook Ad
metrics collapse
hands of police, and Facebook’s
due to COVID-19
largely impassive response to
racially fraught content on its site MAY - JUNE
culminated in the Stop Hate for Facebook Ad prices
remained stable
Profit boycott, all of which had a
despite unrest
momentary impact on Facebook
ad prices but then largely receded. TODAY
Facebook Ad
metrics remain
Despite the circumstances
strong through
surrounding a summer marked ongoing boycotts
by fear, isolation and uncertainty,
Facebook’s ad operations have
largely recovered.
In defiance of some popular negative sentiment, Facebook
is poised to remain the world’s dominant social network and
advertising platform.
3
Introduction
The spring and summer of 2020 will go down in history as one of the
most disruptive periods in living memory. Starting with the sudden
pandemic lock-down in March, the world shared a collective stretch of
fear and uncertainty that persists today.
That initial anxiety was quickly compounded in the U.S. by the killing of
George Floyd by police and the attendant protests and social unrest in
May and June.
The fraught political tension and unrest led many private-sector
businesses to express solidarity with racial- and social-justice
protesters. What began with blacked-out Instagram profiles and
hastily produced “we stand with BLM” TV commercials eventually
gave way to the “Stop Hate for Profit” boycott directed at the
world’s largest advertising platform: Facebook.
This paper represents an examination of Facebook ad pricing
throughout the tumultuous summer of 2020. Starting in March
advertisers had to chart a new path forward in the midst of great
uncertainty. We hope this will be a resource for navigating future
disruption on Facebook and across ad markets more broadly.
Facebook enjoys a rarefied position among
media channels vying for the public’s attention.
190 million Stands alone in its unique Ad operations during the
active users reach and logged-in summer of 2020 mirrored
in the U.S. authentication of known users the nation’s uncertainty
4
MARCH - MAY
The Beginning of Everything.
Facebook advertisers hit the
brakes the week of March 23rd.
-45%
CPMs & CPCs fell 45%
In response to the sudden panic CTRs remained unchanged
and lock-down, consumers flocked
-53%
to social media to check on their
friends and family.
On-site conversions
dropped 53%
Commercial activity across large
+28%
swaths of the economy essentially
ceased altogether and pricing metrics
fell along with the stock market. cost of customer
acquisition rose 28%
Beginning in late March, our agency began sending regular updates to
clients about trends we were seeing in Facebook ad pricing data affected
by the pandemic, along with possible adaptation strategies.
CPM BY CAMPAIGN FOR FACEBOOK CPM CTR BY CAMPAIGN TYPE
$25.00 2.00%
$20.00
1.50%
$15.00
1.00%
$10.00
.50%
$5.00
3 / 1 / 20202 4 / 1 / 20202 5 / 1 / 2020 6 / 1 / 2020 3 / 1 / 20202 4 / 1 / 20202 5 / 1 / 2020 6 / 1 / 2020
Retargeting Retention Prospecting
5+5%
People were logging in
but, unsurprisingly,
not buying much. CPMs were rising 5%
per week in early April
Brands were beginning to prospect
audiences and users were beginning
to step back from social media after
the overwhelming initial shock.
+2%
CTRs rose 2% week-over-week
across all campaign types
+3%
Conversion rates remained flat,
and we saw a significant increase
in prospecting costs along with a
CPCs rebounded as well,
noticeable drop in retention costs. rising at a 3% weekly rate
After the shock of the initial lock-down, we saw that CPMs, CPCs
and CTRs were rising again in early April, but on-site conversion
remained flat.
• CPMs were actively dropping by as much as 20% per week
• A 20% decrease was expected in CAC moving forward
• We recommended our clients shift spending toward prospecting
• Changes in creative was encouraged to avoid tone-deafness
CPC BY CAMPAIGN TYPE CONVERSION RATE BY CAMPAIGN TYPE
$3.00 40%
30%
$4.00
20%
$2.00
$10%
3 / 1 / 20202 4 / 1 / 20202 5 / 1 / 2020 6 / 1 / 2020 3 / 1 / 20202 4 / 1 / 20202 5 / 1 / 2020 6 / 1 / 2020
Retargeting Retention Prospecting
6As consumer behavior
leveled out after the
massive initial shock,
advertisers scrambled
to adjust their creative
in a social distancing
environment.
• Resourceful brands began to COST PER CONVERSION ON FACEBOOK
update their creative using
unconventional means $80
• Industries began to pivot, $60
as when clothing companies
began selling face masks $40
• Brands turned to prospecting
$20
• Prospecting, retargeting and
retention began to level out 3 / 1 / 20202 4 / 1 / 20202 5 / 1 / 2020 6 / 1 / 2020
Retargeting Retention Prospecting
Facebook ad metrics continued
to stabilize by mid-April. +5%
CPMs and CPCs rising
at roughly 5% per week
CPMs gently crept up as ad budgets
returned following the initial shock,
and the cost of acquisition overall
rose slowly as well. FLAT
CTRs and conversion
rates remained flat
The fall of CTRs and flat on-site
+15%
conversions also suggested that
Facebook users had other retail
options becoming available to them Cost per Purchase
in April, and that advertisers would rose 15% by mid-April
do well to focus on retargeting and
retention rather than acquisition.
Photo by AronPW on Unsplash 7By mid-April we saw
creative on Facebook
starting to emphasize
things like free shipping
and quarantine-related
purchase options.
Aggressive lock-downs took root
in major markets and the words
“new normal” found their way into
the lexicon.
Geographical targeting to less
expensive cities saw notable cost
efficiencies, and the world adjusted
to an unfamiliar commercial
landscape. The initial shock of
the pandemic and lock-downs had
truly leveled off in most Facebook
ad metrics by mid-May.
With CPMs rising at a steady 5% and
conversion rates down a full 25%, we
expected to see an extended, difficult
period of high-priced, low-return
Facebook advertising.
Then, on May 25th, the death of
George Floyd at the hands of
Minneapolis police surfaced on
video. Protests began in Minneapolis,
which devolved into looting, arson
and civil unrest. The popular
outrage spread to other cities,
and suddenly the nation had
another crisis on its hands.
Photo by christina-wocintechchat-com on Unsplash 8JUNE-JULY
BLM Protests, Corporate
Solidarity & a Nation Tested.
“As the nation
faces this difficult
moment together...”
So began many corporate statements
after the killing of George Floyd and
the resurgence of mass protests
beginning in late May and early June.
By the end of May society at large
seemed to be fraying.
The fear and uncertainty of the initial
pandemic gave way to a collective
outpouring of grief and anger that
brought many into the streets and
affected every industry.
By early June, the national mood
clearly wasn’t very concerned with
shopping on-line. Global brands like
Nike shifted their creative to voice
solidarity with the protests and
with the Black community, and
others soon followed suit. Historical
modeling lost some of its usefulness
because consumer behavior had
diverged so dramatically.
Photo by liam-edwards on Unsplash 9During the week CPM BY CAMPAIGN FOR FACEBOOK
of May 31st ad $25
metrics fell again. $20
$15
• CPM were down 10-20% $10
• CTRs and conversion $5
rates dropped
6 / 1 / 20202 7 / 1 / 20202 8 / 1 / 2020 9 / 1 / 2020
• CPCs became irregular
• Cost per Purchase
increased significantly
CTR BY CAMPAIGN TYPE
1.25%
1.00%
.75%
.50%
.25%
6 / 1 / 20202 7 / 1 / 20202 8 / 1 / 2020 9 / 1 / 2020
CONVERSION RATE BY CAMPAIGN TYPE
30%
20%
10%
6 / 1 / 20202 7 / 1 / 20202 8 / 1 / 2020 9 / 1 / 2020
Retargeting Retention Prospecting
Photo by varun-gaba-jokxn on Unsplash 10JULY - AUGUST
The Stop Hate for Profit Boycott.
The Stop Hate for Profit Facebook boycott began on June 17th with a
number of civil rights groups calling for collective action against the
social media platform and its perceived irresponsible behavior.
Socially progressive brands • CPMs, CTRs and CPCs
remained stable to
like the North Face and REI gently rising
quickly signed on, and by late
June more than 100 businesses • Market conditions on the
platform remained fairly
had publicly pulled their
unremarkable
advertising off of Facebook.
• Conversion rates continued
In this early stage of the boycott, to drop - most likely due to
physical retail reopening
we didn’t see shocks to ad
metrics on Facebook the way we • CPMs seemed poised to
had at the onset of the pandemic rise if the boycott gained
momentum
and BLM protests.
COST PER CONVERSION ON FACEBOOK
$80
$60
$40
$20
6 / 1 / 20202 7 / 1 / 20202 8 / 1 / 2020 9 / 1 / 2020
Retargeting Retention Prospecting
Photo by daria-nepriakhina on Unsplash 11Conclusion
Like the stock market, it seems people
will keep investing in Facebook as long
as the returns are good. And as of
September, the returns are still good.
If the initial shock to Facebook ad operations we saw in
March represented a major earthquake, the summer of
unrest, BLM protests and Stop Hate for Profit boycott all
counted as minor and diminishing aftershocks.
In reality, the Facebook ad marketplace mirrored the stock
market during the summer of 2020, suffering a massive
initial shock amidst deep uncertainty that gave way to a
strong recovery.
If 2020 has taught us anything, however, it’s that nothing in
the world - on-line or off-line - can be taken for granted.
The stock market and ad markets have recovered
substantially, but uncertainty still lingers in the air. A
presidential election is set to draw Facebook’s practices
once again into the spotlight, and the prospect of a
consumer-driven Facebook boycott could yet take shape.
For a major portion of the national economy, however, no
advertising channel has been able to match Facebook’s
reach, targeting and ROI.
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Consulting
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