Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF

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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
Absa Africa Financial
        Markets Index 2019
         Taking you further into Africa
         than ever before.

                                                    13.4928° N | 38.4436° E

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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
The Absa Africa Financial Markets              Absa Group Limited (‘Absa Group’) is listed on the Johannesburg Stock
         Index was produced by OMFIF in                 Exchange and is one of Africa’s largest diversified financial services groups.
         association with Absa Group Limited.
         The scores on p.7 and elsewhere                Absa Group offers an integrated set of products and services across
         record the total result (max=100) of           personal and business banking, corporate and investment banking, wealth
         assessments across Pillars 1-6. For            and investment management and insurance.
         methodology see individual Pillar              Absa Group has a presence in 12 countries in Africa, with approximately
         assessments and p.38-39.                       42,000 employees.

         OMFIF conducted extensive                      The Group’s registered head office is in Johannesburg, South Africa, and
         quantitative research and data                 it owns majority stakes in banks in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius,
         analysis. Qualitative survey data were         Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa (Absa Bank), Tanzania (Barclays Bank
         collected and analysed by OMFIF with           Tanzania and National Bank of Commerce), Uganda and Zambia. The Group
         input from Absa.                               also has representative offices in Namibia and Nigeria, as well as insurance
                                                        operations in Botswana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and
         © 2019 The Absa Group Limited and              Zambia.
         OMFIF Ltd. All Rights Reserved.                For further information about Absa Group Limited, please visit
                                                        www.absa.africa
         Absa CIB Marketing and
         Communications team
                                                        The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is an independent
         Fiona Kigen, Vice President -
                                                        think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment – a
         Marketing, Nkululeko Tjelake,
                                                        non-lobbying network for best practice in worldwide public-private sector
         Assistant Vice President - Marketing,
                                                        exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – central banks, sovereign
         Sizwekazi Mdingi, Head of Integrated
                                                        funds and public pension funds – with investable assets of $37.8tn,
         Communications, Andile Mkholwa, Vice
         President - External Communications,
                                                        equivalent to 43% of world GDP. With offices in both London and Singapore,
         Kirsty van der Nest, Vice President -          OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes – particularly in
         Stakeholder Relations.                         asset management, capital markets and financial supervision/regulation
                                                        – relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators
                                                        and treasuries. OMFIF promotes higher standards, invigorating exchanges
         OMFIF Editorial, Meetings                      between the public and private sectors and a better understanding of the
         and Marketing team                             world economy, in an atmosphere of mutual trust.

         Simon Hadley, Director, Production,            For further information about OMFIF, please visit www.omfif.org
         Julian Frazer, Senior Editor, William
         Coningsby-Brown, Assistant
         Production Editor, Julie Levy-
         Abegnoli, Subeditor, Stefan Berci,
         Communications Manager, James
         Fitzgerald, Marketing Manager,
         Marcin Stepan, Head of Programming,
         Ben Rands, Head of Logistics, Sofia
         Melis, Head of Client Relationships.

         2 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019

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Contents
         Forewords                                                         4-5
                                                                                                        Pillar 4:
         Introduction                                                      6-7
                                                                                                        Capacity of local
         Executive summary                                                8-11                          investors
         Contains country comparisons and highlights
         opportunities and challenges for the region’s                                                  Examines the size of local
         financial markets.                                                                             investors, assessing the level
                                                                                                        of local demand against supply
         Acknowledgments                                                    11                          of assets available in each
                                                                                                        market.
         Highlights                                                     12-13      p. 26-29

                                                Pillar 1:
                                                Market depth
                                                                                                        Pillar 5:
                                                Examines size, liquidity and                            Macroeconomic
                                                diversity of products in                                opportunity
                                                markets, as well as countries’
                                                efforts to merge exchanges                              Evaluates economic
                                                and launch new markets.                                 performance, financial risks
                                                                                                        and financial transparency,
            p. 14-17                                                                                    demonstrated by availability
                                                                                                        of data, open monetary policy
                                                                                   p. 30-33             communication and the timely
                                                                                                        release of state budgets.

                                                Pillar 2:
                                                Access to foreign
                                                                                                        Pillar 6: Legality and
                                                exchange
                                                                                                        enforceability of standard
                                                Looks at factors that impact                            financial markets
                                                markets’ accessibility to                               master agreements
                                                international investors,
                                                including the severity of                               Measures how well countries
                                                capital controls, exchange rate                         have adopted internationally
            p. 18-21                            reporting standards and levels                          accepted legal standards,
                                                of foreign exchange liquidity.                          the enforcement of netting
                                                                                   p. 34-37             and collateral positions, and
                                                                                                        insolvency regime adequacy.

                                                Pillar 3:                         Indicators and Methodology                     p. 38-39
                                                Market transparency,
                                                tax and regulatory
                                                environment

                                                Assesses countries’ regulatory
                                                and tax environments for
                                                financial markets, as well as
                                                transparency and enforcement
            p. 22-25                            of accounting rules.

                                                                                                  Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 3

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FOREWORDS

                                                        Benefiting
                                                        the people
                                                        behind the
                                                        numbers

                                                        Peter Matlare
                                                        Deputy Chief Executive
                                                        Officer, Absa Group

                                                         Christine Lagarde, as managing director of the
                                                         International Monetary Fund, once said, ‘We cannot
                                                         just look at a country by looking at charts, graphs, and
                                                         modelling the economy. Behind the numbers, there are
                                                         people.’ This sentiment is reflected in the Absa Africa
                                                         Financial Markets Index.
                                                         This report is published against the backdrop of
                                                         people’s growing disillusionment across the African
                                                         continent with their individual and collective
                                                         socioeconomic and political prospects. Accelerated
                                                         economic development, underpinned by strengthening
         Aim of index                                    economic resilience and building robust institutions, is
                                                         key to realising the aspirations of our fellow Africans.

         African economies are                           The deepening and widening of financial markets
                                                         are crucial steps towards national economic self-
         undergoing a significant                        sufficiency. To reach the next level of growth, Africa
                                                         requires a collective commitment to ensuring the
         period of transition and                        transnational cross-pollination of ideas. This index
         appraisal, with growing                         suggests we are making headway. The continent’s
                                                         challenges are clearly visible, and its countries are
         foreign investment                              crafting actionable solutions.
         interest and much                               The report assesses progress and potential across six
                                                         key pillars: market depth, access to foreign exchange,
         examination of the                              market transparency, the capacity of local investors,
         continent’s potential                           macroeconomic opportunity, and the legality and
                                                         enforceability of standard financial markets master
         for mobilising local                            agreements.

         resources. Now in its                           Most promisingly, it highlights positive developments
                                                         in market infrastructure and the fostering of market
         third year, the index has                       growth. Foreign exchange liquidity is improving, while
                                                         market transparency and financial inclusion have
         become a benchmark                              been prioritised. Many countries have set ambitious
         for the investment                              strategies for national economic and financial market
                                                         transformation.
         community and Africa                            As a leading African banking group, Absa is committed
         generally to gauge                              to furthering the development and prosperity of the
                                                         continent and its people. We trust that the insights
         countries’ performance                          embodied in the index will inspire active engagement
                                                         among policy-makers and market participants,
         and highlight how they                          resulting in measurable actions that foster inclusive
         can learn from others.                          growth and sustainable development to benefit the
                                                         people ‘behind the numbers’.

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Nurturing                                                      Financial
         the growth                                                     markets can
         of African                                                     help more
         businesses                                                     Africans

         Ludger Schuknecht                                              Jingdong Hua
         Deputy Secretary General,                                      Vice-President and Treasurer,
         Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development         World Bank

            Private sector development is key for growth on the          Africa’s economic successes have often been
            African continent. A strong and dynamic private sector       supported by financial market development, which
            can unlock jobs and opportunities for better lives, and      in turn has been supported by improved economic
            is therefore instrumental in attaining development           management and better institutions. This year’s
            objectives. Fortunately, the international community         Absa Africa Financial Markets Index highlights some
            is paying increasing attention to the important role of      important achievements on the continent, but also
            the private sector as a motor of progress.                   the large variation across countries and the major
            In 2017 in Hamburg, G20 countries agreed that it was         opportunities yet to be marshalled.
            time to grant the private sector a central place in their    Although financial investments are becoming
            co-operation with Africa. The G20 Compact with Africa        increasingly international, their currency denomination
            was established in partnership with international            should become increasingly local to match projects’
            organisations and African countries to strive towards
                                                                         risk profiles. Because currency depreciations often
            a more enabling environment for private investment.
                                                                         follow economic shocks, foreign currency borrowers
            African members committed to implement reforms
                                                                         with local currency earnings are simultaneously
            in their macro, business and financing frameworks to
                                                                         burdened by economic hardship and increasing debt
            facilitate investment. G20 countries and international
            organisations committed to enhance and better                service obligations. Infrastructure projects, non-
            coordinate their efforts, and encourage their                exporting firms and small or medium-sized firms
            businesses to step up their activities in the region.        all need local currency financing to manage risks.
            This is a novel approach and an opportunity to which         Emerging markets have gradually been able to develop
            12 African countries subscribed, and much progress           both local investor bases and tap international
            has already been made.                                       investors for local currencies; Africa must continue this
                                                                         trend. Financial markets in countries’ own currencies
            Nurturing the growth of African businesses requires          will help African businesses, infrastructure borrowers,
            an open and enabling investment environment as well          homeowners and microentrepreneurs gain access to
            as access to finance. It is encouraging, therefore, to       the finance they need.
            see Compact and other African countries working on
            both these fronts, together with international partners      The World Bank has a long history of supporting the
            and organisations. The third edition of the Absa             development of local currency financial markets. We
            Africa Financial Markets Index shows that, across the        help governments design, finance and implement
            continent, countries are making remarkable steps to          investment projects and hold billions in local currency-
            develop and enhance their capital markets.                   denominated loans. We share knowledge globally
            By tracking progress on financial market                     on economic and financial markets policies and
            developments, this OMFIF-Absa report is a valuable           regulations. The World Bank is committed to finding
            part of the monitoring and reporting of exciting             new and innovative local currency financing solutions,
            progress in Africa. It helps us know where things            because African nations need more options to borrow
            are moving, and who is open for business. We in the          in their own currencies.
            international community look forward to further              Local currency market development relies on many
            progress in the months and years ahead.                      fundamentals captured by this index. It is my hope
                                                                         that readers will explore the many opportunities we
                                                                         have to improve the local mobilisation of finance
                                                                         and to develop investable projects. We must all help
                                                                         Africa create local markets that combine these forces
                                                                         to develop well-functioning financial markets and
                                                                         enhance economic development to benefit all Africans.

                                                                                             Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 5

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Individual steps show collective progress
                     Despite disparities in individual standing, financial market developments in
                     countries covered by the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index show a collective
                     progression towards a more robust, investment-supporting environment. Key
                     mergers, new regulations and innovative financial products have contributed to the
                     expansion of financial markets across the region. Policies that incentivise market
                     activity and attract new players, such as favourable tax regimes and internationally
                     aligned contractual frameworks, have boosted country scores.
                     When the index was first launched in 2017, the average mark for 17 countries was
                     49.6 out of 100 and only three scored above it, indicating much room for growth.
                     Since then, the index has been expanded to include three additional countries,
                     and the average overall score across all 20 has climbed to 52.7. The Seychelles
                     progressed the most since the first edition of the index. Its score climbed to 47
                     from 29, partly owing to its growing pool of local assets.
                     In this edition, nine countries perform above average, showing that progress is
                     becoming more evenly distributed across the index: South Africa, Mauritius, Kenya,
                     Namibia, Botswana, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia and Rwanda. In the face of changing
                     global conditions and domestic challenges for each market, this improvement
                     shows that the region is moving in the right direction.
                     The countries whose scores increased most since last year are Mauritius, Tanzania,
                     Egypt, Namibia and Mozambique. Market depth improved in Mauritius following
                     a substantial listing of bonds by the central bank. Enhanced export performance
                     improved Egypt’s macroeconomic environment. Some markets remain hampered by
                     the allure of the international bond market, a cheaper way for their governments to
                     raise money but a barrier to the deepening of local markets and developing reliable
                     yield curves. The outlook for Ethiopia, one of the lowest scoring countries, has
                     improved following plans to launch a stock exchange in 2020, which may list the
                     shares of telecoms companies it is planning to privatise.

         6 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019

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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
INTRODUCTION

           Rank                                        Score
         2019 2018                                  2019 2018                                             Comments

           1       1                South Africa    88   93     Deep market liquidity anchored by strong domestic investors

           2       4                  Mauritius     75   62     Sizeable pool of investible pension assets with strong legal framework

           3       3                    Kenya       65   65     Sovereign bond listings enhance asset pool

           4       6                   Namibia      65   57     Wide range of financial products available but low market turnover

           5       2                  Botswana      64   65     Drop in pension assets reduces local investor capacity

           6       5                    Nigeria     63   61     Multiple exchange rate reporting weakens robust performance across pillars

           7      15                   Tanzania     55   43     Strong investment environment but markets still small and illiquid

           8       8                    Zambia      55   53     Improving regulatory and legal frameworks but weak capacity of local investors

           9      11                   Rwanda       53   49     High transparency and financial reporting standards

          10      10                   Uganda       52   50     Active foreign exchange market and high level of foreign reserves

          11      16                     Egypt      51   42     Strong macroeconomic outlook and high transparency

          12       9                   Morocco      51   50     High growth in export market share and strong insolvency regime

          13       7                    Ghana       50   55     Attractive tax environment but low wholesale foreign exchange market turnover

          14      12                 Seychelles     47   45     Small and illiquid equity market

          15      18                Mozambique      44   36     Low securities turnover and high level of external debt

          16      13                 Ivory Coast    41   44     Fragmented bond market hinders yield curve development

          17      19                    Angola      36   34     Shallow markets but improving regulatory environment

          18      14                   Senegal      35   44     Fast-growing economy but small pool of local assets available for investment

          19      17                  Cameroon      35   41     Weak domestic investor capacity

          20      20                   Ethiopia     27   26     Rapid economic growth but still lacking financial markets infrastructure

        Score across all pillars, max = 100.

                                                                                                                  Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 7

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                                                                            Morocco (51)

         South Africa retains top position,
         other countries catching up
                                                                                                                                38 48 56 66 72 27

         The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index evaluates financial
         market development in 20 countries, and highlights economies
         with the clearest growth prospects. The aim is to show not
         just present positions but also how economies can improve                                                   Senegal (35)
         market frameworks to meet yardsticks for investor access and
         sustainable growth. The index assesses countries according to
         six pillars: market depth; access to foreign exchange; tax and
         regulatory environment and market transparency; capacity of
         local investors; macroeconomic opportunity; and enforceability
         of financial contracts, collateral positions and insolvency                                             40 35 43 12 53 29

         frameworks.
         In addition to quantitative analysis, OMFIF gained additional
         insights by surveying over 40 policy-makers and top executives
         from financial institutions operating across the 20 countries,                                                              Ivory Coast (41)
         including banks, investors, securities exchanges, central
         banks, regulators, audit and accounting firms and international
         financial and development institutions.
         Continued on p.10 >>
                                                                                                                               38 51 67 14 51 26

         Overall pillar scores max = 100
         Pillar 1:                             Pillar 2:                Pillar 3:              Pillar 4:                    Pillar 5:
         Market                                Access to foreign        Market transparency,   Capacity of                  Macroeconomic
         depth                                 exchange                 tax and regulatory     local investors              opportunity
                                                                        environment
         South Africa            100           South Africa        78   South Africa      96   South Africa        83       Egypt              76
         Nigeria                 70            Egypt               77   Mauritius         86   Mauritius           76       South Africa       74
         Mauritius               67            Uganda              71   Nigeria           86   Morocco             66       Morocco            72
         Botswana                55            Rwanda              66   Rwanda            85   Namibia             66       Botswana           70
         Kenya                   55            Kenya               65   Ghana             85   Seychelles          57       Uganda             69
         Namibia                 52            Botswana            64   Botswana          77   Botswana            54       Namibia            67
         Ghana                   50            Seychelles          64   Zambia            75   Nigeria             46       Kenya              67
         Zambia                  46            Zambia              61   Tanzania          74   Kenya               39       Mauritius          66
         Egypt                   45            Tanzania            60   Uganda            73   Ghana               22       Rwanda             63
         Uganda                  45            Mauritius           57   Namibia           72   Tanzania            22       Nigeria            60
         Mozambique              41            Ivory Coast         51   Kenya             71   Angola              21       Ghana              59
         Senegal                 40            Morocco             48   Egypt             68   Cameroon            20       Ethiopia           59
         Morocco                 38            Namibia             45   Ivory Coast       67   Egypt               18       Seychelles         58
         Ivory Coast             38            Mozambique          45   Angola            57   Mozambique          17       Cameroon           57
         Angola                  37            Cameroon            36   Mozambique        56   Uganda              16       Tanzania           54
         Tanzania                34            Senegal             35   Morocco           56   Rwanda              16       Mozambique         54
         Rwanda                  31            Ghana               31   Seychelles        45   Ivory Coast         14       Senegal            53
         Cameroon                28            Nigeria             31   Senegal           43   Zambia              13       Ivory Coast        51
         Seychelles              24            Ethiopia            30   Cameroon          39   Senegal             12       Zambia             51
         Ethiopia                11            Angola              29   Ethiopia          31   Ethiopia            10       Angola             49

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Key                                                                                   Egypt (51)

          Pillar     1 Market depth
          Pillar     2 Access to foreign exchange
          Pillar     3 Market transparency, tax and
                       regulatory environment
                                                                                              45 77 68 18 76 24
          Pillar     4 Capacity of local investors
          Pillar     5 Macroeconomic opportunity
          Pillar     6 Legality and enforceability of standard                                                                   Ethiopia (27)
                       financial markets master agreements
                         (xx) = overall score

                                                Nigeria (63)
                                                                                                                            11 30 31 10 59 20

               Ghana (50)

                                          70 31 86 46 60 87
                                                                                                                                 Kenya (65)
                                                                          Rwanda (53)
                                               Cameroon (35)

        50 31 85 22 59 55                                                                           Uganda (52)

                                                                                                                          55 65 71 39 67 96
                                                                    31 66 85 16 63 57
                                         28 36 39 20 57 26
                                                                                                                                            Seychelles (47)
                                                                                                45 71 73 16 69 35
         Pillar 6:
         Legality and enforceability                  Angola (36)
         of standard financial                                                                            Tanzania (55)
         markets master agreements                                            Zambia (55)
         Mauritius                98                                                                                                     24 64 45 57 58 31
         Kenya                    96
         South Africa             95
         Namibia                  90            37 29 57 21 49 26
                                                                                                       34 60 74 22 54 88
         Tanzania                 88
                                                                         46 61 75 13 51 81
         Nigeria                  87                                                                              Mozambique (44)
         Zambia                   81
                                                                                      Botswana (64)
         Botswana                 62                   Namibia (65)
         Rwanda                   57
         Ghana                    55
         Mozambique               52
         Uganda                   35                                                                            41 45 56 17 54 52

         Seychelles               31                                              55 64 77 54 70 62
         Senegal                  29                52 45 72 66 67 90

         Morocco                  27                                                                                                        Mauritius (75)
                                                                          South Africa (88)
         Angola                   26
         Cameroon                 26
         Ivory Coast              26
         Egypt                    24
         Ethiopia                 20
                                                                                                                                        67 57 86 76 66 98
                                                                        100 78 96 83 74 95
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The report finds that:

          South Africa tops the index largely           potential for improvement in the        Seychelles are considering enacting
         due to its sizeable lead in ‘market             coming year. It has announced           some form of netting legislation,
         depth’. While it is likely to remain            plans to establish a stock exchange     which would earn them higher marks
         an outlier in this pillar, the creation         in 2020. Local banks and other          in coming years.
         of new bourses and key mergers                  financial service firms are in the
         between existing ones will improve              process of adopting international
                                                                                                  ‘Access to foreign exchange’ is
         the standing of other countries in              financial reporting standards.          the only pillar where average scores
         coming years. This year, Botswana,                                                      fell. Aggregated reserves grew
         Kenya and Namibia join the ranks                 Countries perform best                modestly to $244bn from $233bn
         of countries that score over 50 in              collectively in ‘market transparency,   last year, but countries like Zambia
         Pillar 1, which also includes Nigeria,          tax and regulatory environment’,        and Angola are running low, leaving
                                                         with 13 out of 20 scoring above the     them potentially vulnerable to
         Mauritius and Ghana. Issuance of
                                                         average mark of 67. Favourable tax      foreign exchange risk. There is also
         new debt with longer tenor has
                                                         regimes in different jurisdictions      high disparity in interbank foreign
         lengthened the yield curve in Ghana,
                                                                                                 exchange turnover across countries.
         Nigeria and Tanzania. The creation              incentivise market activity and
                                                                                                 South Africa’s turnover is 466% of
         of new products, such as green and              the entry of new players. Survey
                                                                                                 GDP, but the index average without
         blue bonds, could enhance market                respondents in Rwanda, Tanzania,
                                                                                                 it is only 13%.
         activity and attractiveness to                  Kenya, Ghana and South Africa
         foreign investors in coming years.              gave positive feedback for their         Egypt’s strong performance
         Assigning primary dealers will                  respective tax systems. Uganda,         in ‘macroeconomic opportunity’
         help create a secondary market in               Cameroon and Senegal have earned        is driven by steady economic
         jurisdictions where none yet exist.             international corporate credit          and export growth, along with a
                                                         ratings for the first time.             decline in non-performing loans.
          Other countries are catching up in                                                    It does well in macro reporting
         the rest of the index. Egypt has the             ‘Legality and enforceability of       and transparency, topping Pillar 5
         highest score in ‘macroeconomic                 standard financial markets master       as it completed the International
         opportunity’ while Mauritius and                agreements’ improved significantly,     Monetary Fund’s reform programme
         Kenya claim the two top spots                   with the average score growing to       earlier this year.
         in ‘legality and enforceability of              55 from 47 last year. Amendments
         standard financial markets master               to insolvency laws and processes         The amount of pension assets
         agreements’. Ethiopia, although                 boost the scores of Kenya, Morocco      varies greatly among countries
         lagging behind, has significant                 and Rwanda. Ghana, Morocco and the      in the index. Mauritius leads with

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Acknowledgements

                                                     The team consulted more than 40 policy-makers, regulators and
         $4,331 per capita, followed closely
                                                     market practitioners across African financial markets in writing this
         by South Africa, Namibia, Botswana
                                                     report, whom we thank for their views and opinions. Although some
         and the Seychelles. Meanwhile,              requested anonymity, we thank the following for their contribution:
         11 countries have less than $100
         pension fund assets for every
                                                     Arnold Bagubwagye, Deputy Director, Bank of Uganda
         person. Expanding the coverage
         of pension schemes increases                Sunil Benimadhu, Chief Executive, Stock Exchange of Mauritius
         the amount of investible assets             José Miguel Cerdeira, Economist, Banco de Fomento Angola
         available, enhancing local investor         Jacqueline Irving, Senior Sector Economist, Sector Economics and
         capacity. Because of limited                Development Impact Department, International Finance Corporation,
         product availability, pension funds         World Bank Group
         in some countries are constrained           George Kwatia, Tax Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers (Ghana) Limited
         to investing in sovereign securities.       Vipin Mahabirsingh, Managing Director, Central Depository
         Building up pension fund assets             & Settlement Co. Ltd., Mauritius
         through innovative and inclusive            Moremi Marwa, Chief Executive, Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange Plc
         schemes can help spur demand for
                                                     Prosscovia Nambatya, Corporate Finance Lawyer, Uganda
         a wider range of financial products
                                                     Anica Nerlich, Financial Analyst, Global Macro and Market Research
         and lead to greater market activity.
                                                     Department, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group
          There have been significant               Akiules Neto, Executive Director, Angolan Securities Exchange
         improvements for individual                 (BODIVA)
         countries since the index was first         Birgit Reuter, Financial Officer, Global Macro and Market Research
         established in 2017. Since then,            Department, IFC, World Bank Group
         countries have taken steps to align         Isaac Sekitoleko, Senior Planning and Risk Officer, Capital Markets
         their local market infrastructure           Authority, Uganda
         with global standards. Tracking             Valentin Tchakounte, Managing Director, Nambi Capital
         these changes annually helps
         measure the gradual progress                We also thank individuals from the following institutions: Deloitte,
         of Africa’s financial markets and           Bank of Mauritius, Bank of Tanzania, Mauritius Commercial Bank
         provide guidance on how countries           and MERJ Exchange.
         can advance further.

                                                      Report authors
                                                      Kat Usita, Deputy Head of Research, OMFIF
                                                      Chris Papadopoullos, Economist, OMFIF

                                                      With support from
                                                      Jeff Gable, Chief Economist, Absa Group Limited
                                                      George Asante, Head of Global Markets, Absa Regional Operations
                                                      Garth Klintworth, Head of Global Markets, Absa Group Limited
                                                      Danae Kyriakopoulou, Chief Economist and Director of Research,
                                                      OMFIF
                                                      Bhavin Patel, Senior Economist and Head of Fintech Research, OMFIF
                                                      Di Wu, Research Assistant, OMFIF

                                                                                     Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 11

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 11                                                                           07/10/2019 09:41
Highlights 2018-19

                                                                                   Mauritius established a
         The Seychelles issued the world’s                                         multi-commodity spot
         first sovereign blue bond, an                                              and derivatives trading
         instrument developed to finance                                            platform and clearing
                                                                                   house.
         sustainable marine and fisheries
         projects.
                                                                                   $1.5bn:
                                                                                   Pooled assets
         South Africa’s Financial                        Cameroon’s                under management
         Sector Conduct Authority
         published a draft conduct                       Douala Stock              of Kenyan pension
         standard determining skills                     Exchange                  funds that formed
         and training requirements                       merged with
         for board members of                                                      the Kenya Pension
         pension funds.                                  regional stock            Fund Consortium to
                                                         market Bourse             invest in alternative
         The                                             des Valeurs               assets.
         Johannesburg                                    Mobilières de
                                                         l’Afrique Centrale.       Ivory Coast is developing
         Stock Exchange                                                            an agricultural
         launched a                                                                commodities exchange to
                                                                                   be launched in 2020.
         Nasdaq clearing
         platform for                                    400%:                     Mauritius
         equity and                                      Oversubscription of
         currency                                        Nigeria’s first 30-       launched an
         derivatives                                     year government           ebond trading
                                                         bond issued earlier       and market
         markets.                                        this year.                surveillance
         Namibia issued the
                                                                                   system, a new
         first green bond                                Zambia is introducing a   electronic trading
         from a commercial                               primary dealer system     system for its
                                                         to boost the secondary
         bank in southern                                market for government     government
         Africa.                                         bonds.                    bonds.
         12 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 12                                                           07/10/2019 09:41
Market developments and policy changes boost
                                               growth of financial markets across the continent

         The Bank of Mozambique                         Morocco is developing       The Bank of Ghana
         approved its first                             plans for an agricultural   released an Interbank
         independent licensed                           commodities exchange,       Forex Market Conduct
         broker, Amaramba Capital.                      Bourse des Matières         to regulate and improve
                                                        Premières Agricoles.        trading practices.

         Rwanda’s central
                                                        The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange has been made a
         bank shifted                                   full member of the World Federation of Exchanges.
         to targeting
         inflation
         between 2-8%                                   10x: Increase               Angola expects
         through interest                               in banks’                   its first ever initial
         rates instead of                               minimum capital             public offering this
         managing money                                 requirements                year, following
         supply.                                        as proposed                 the privatisation
                                                        by Egypt’s new              of multiple state-
                                                        banking bill, raising       owned enterprises.
         Tanzania created a Tax                         it to $294m from
         Ombudsman Office to                            $29.4m.
         handle disputes arising                                                    All local Ugandan banks
         from the administration of                                                 signed onto a GMRA and
         tax laws.          Uganda reduced                                          the market is now able to
                                                                                    trade horizontal repos.
                            withholding
         Ethiopia announced tax on 10-year
                                                                                    Senegal began
         plans to launch a
                            government bonds                                        implementation of a hybrid
         stock exchange by                                                          Basel II and III banking
         2020.              to 10% from 20%.                                        regulation framework.

         Botswana formed a
         Financial Stability Council                    Morocco issued its first sovereign sukuk,
         to coordinate between the                      Islamic bonds that are compliant with
         country’s various financial                    sharia principles.
         authorities.
                                                                                    Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 13

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 13                                                                          07/10/2019 09:41
Pillar 1:
         Market depth

                                                      Serra da Leba, Angola
                                                     15.0711° S | 13.2486° E

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 14                       07/10/2019 09:41
Making headway on market infrastructure

         Countries are making progress on developing active secondary markets and reliable
         yield curves, but still have some way to go. New markets were created, enhancing
         product diversity and market size.

         Figure 1.1:1.1:
             Figure   Large   disparities
                         Financial          remain
                                   markets remain   in market
                                                  uneven          sizelevel
                                                         in size and    andoflevel  of activity
                                                                              activity
         Scores for Pillar 1 categories, max=500; harmonised score, max=100 (RHS)
             Scores for Pillar 1 categories, max=500; harmonised score, max=100 (RHS)

         500                                                                                                                                                                                                                              100
         450                                                                                                                                                                                                                              90
         400                                                                                                                                                                                                                              80
         350                                                                                                                                                                                                                              70
         300                                                                                                                                                                                                                              60
         250                                                                                                                                                                                                                              50
         200                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40
         150                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30
         100                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20
          50                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10
           0                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                       Kenya

                                                                                                                           Mozambique

                                                                                                                                                            Ivory Coast

                                                                                                                                                                                   Tanzania
                                                                                                                  Uganda

                                                                                                                                        Senegal
                                                                               Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Cameroon
                                                Mauritius

                                                                                                 Zambia

                                                                                                                                                                          Angola

                                                                                                                                                                                              Rwanda

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                                  Morocco

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Seychelles
                     South Africa

                                    Nigeria

                                                            Botswana

                                                                                         Ghana

                                                                                                          Egypt

                                              Product diversity                                                                                        Size of markets
                                              Liquidity                                                                                                Depth
                                              Primary dealer system                                                                                    Pillar 1 harmonised score (RHS)

         Sources: National securities exchanges, national central banks, OMFIF analysis. Note: Category scores (LHS) provide
               Sources: National securities exchanges, national central banks, OMFIF analysis. Note:
         the average of indicator scores within each category. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all Pillar 1
               Category
         indicators         scores
                    and is used      (LHS)theprovide
                                to compile              thefor
                                               total scores average      ofMore
                                                               Pillars 1-6. indicator  scores
                                                                                information      within each category.
                                                                                            on p.38-39.
                  The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all Pillar 1 indicators and is
                  used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.

                                                                                                                                                                           Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 15

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 15                                                                                                                                                                                        07/10/2019 09:41
South Africa receives the highest                                         to renew their licence in 2019 due to                      currency yield curve. This is due partly
         Pillar 1 score again this year. Its stock                                 falling revenues. Turnover has been                        to easy access to Eurobond markets,
         market capitalisation, the largest                                        hit by uncertainty over Umeme, the                         where bonds come at cheaper nominal
         in the index, is triple the size of its                                   country’s main electricity firm and                        interest rates and in some cases give
         economy. Botswana has the second-                                         most-traded stock. Still, Uganda’s                         useful currency hedges. In the West
         largest market capitalisation at 204%                                     overall performance in this pillar                         African Economic and Monetary Union
         of GDP, but finishes fifth in the pillar                                  improves slightly, with the decline in                     (UEMOA), governments can offer
         due to lower secondary market activity.                                   liquidity offset by the higher value of                    bonds through the central bank’s
         Most of Botswana’s listed companies                                       listed bonds and equities.                                 auction system and regional securities
         are dual-listed mining firms that trade                                                                                              exchange, preventing the formation of
                                                                                   Morocco’s market capitalisation is 51%
         at low volumes on the local stock                                                                                                    a yield curve and stunting secondary
                                                                                   of the country’s GDP, and its equities
         exchange. Nigeria, Africa’s largest                                                                                                  market growth.
                                                                                   market is the fifth most active in the
         economy, has a small equity market at
                                                                                   index, with turnover at 9% of market                       In October 2019, Egypt’s central
         8% of GDP, but maintains second place
                                                                                   size. Its score, however, is constrained                   bank introduced the Cairo Overnight
         due to its high level of activity and
                                                                                   by the limited availability of financial                   Interbank Average benchmark to
         broad range of available products.
                                                                                   products compared to other index                           deepen its money, derivatives and
         Mauritius’ score increases by 11                                          nations.                                                   capital markets. This will help price
         points, driven by the listing of Bank of                                                                                             a broad array of products, enhancing
                                                                                   Egypt has a fairly liquid stock market
         Mauritius bonds with a value of $268m                                                                                                market liquidity. Angola is tapping
                                                                                   with turnover at 26% of market
         at end-June 2019, raising the total                                                                                                  reissuances of government bonds to
                                                                                   capitalisation. There are no equities
         value of bonds listed on the exchange                                                                                                spur secondary market trading and
                                                                                   listed on Angola’s exchange, and both
         by 27% compared with the same time                                                                                                   boost the debt market’s size.
                                                                                   Cameroon and Mozambique have
         last year. Namibia’s performance on                                                                                                  Most index countries have a primary
                                                                                   market capitalisations of less than 5%
         the pillar also improved due to a 17%                                                                                                dealer system in place for government
                                                                                   of GDP. Ethiopia is the only country in
         rise in the value of its listed bonds,                                                                                               bonds, improving the efficiency of debt
                                                                                   the index without a stock exchange,
         with contributions from the public                                                                                                   issuance and reducing operational
                                                                                   although the government plans to
         and private sector. Kenya earns points                                                                                               risk associated with counterparties.
                                                                                   establish one in 2020.
         following a sharp climb in the value of                                                                                              However, the volume of ‘horizontal
         listed sovereign bonds and a 20% rise                                     Enhancing market depth                                     repos’ (short-term loans between
         in bond turnover in the 12 months to                                                                                                 commercial banks) is low in nearly all
                                                                                   Survey respondents in several
         June 2019.                                                                                                                           markets except South Africa, Nigeria
                                                                                   countries said the lack of a reliable
         In contrast, Uganda’s market liquidity                                    benchmark yield curve against which                        and Mauritius, where the average daily
         continued to drop, with $11m in                                           to price various securities is hindering                   turnover in 2018 was $4.5bn, $290m
         turnover, down from $25m. A local                                         the development of domestic capital                        and $55m, respectively. Uganda’s
         survey respondent said one of the                                         markets. Governments have not                              central bank has approved reforms to
         market’s largest brokers decided not                                      prioritised developing a credible local                    its primary dealer system to narrow
                                                                                                                                              the number of banks involved. It tried
                                                                                                                                              expanding primary dealership to all
                                                                                                                                              commercial banks in 2017, but found
         Figure 1.2: Product availability
                                                                                                                                              the secondary market had become
                                                            Government
                                              Corporate

                                                                                     Currency

                                                                                                           securities
                                                                                                Climate-

                                                                                                                        Exchange-
                                  Equities

                                                                                                                                              fragmented.
                                                                                     futures

                                                                                                aligned

                                                                                                                                    Options
                                                                                                           backed
                                                                         swaps

                                                                                                bonds
                                                                                                           Asset-
                                              bonds

                                                                                                                        traded
                                                            bonds

                                                                                                                        funds

                                                                                                                                              The Central Bank of Nigeria disrupted
                                                                         FX

             Angola                                                                                                                  debt markets by barring local banks
           Botswana                                                                                                                  from buying government bills at an
           Cameroon                                                                                                         
          Ivory Coast                                                                                                                open market auction in July 2019, to
              Egypt                                                                                                                  encourage banks to lend more to the
             Ghana                                                                                                                   private sector.
              Kenya                                                                                                         
           Mauritius                                                                                                        
            Morocco                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                              A lack of interest from international
          Mozambique                                                                                                                 investors stymies capital market
            Namibia                                                                                                                  development in several countries.
             Nigeria                                                                                                        
            Rwanda                                                                                                                   Some survey respondents said the
            Senegal                                                                                                                  low interest in their country was due
           Seychelles                                                                                                       
          South Africa                                                                                                               to a lack of awareness, or a dearth of
            Tanzania                                                                                                                 domestic investment opportunities. For
             Uganda                                                                                                         
             Zambia
                                                                                                                                              others, like South Africa, international
                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                              appetite has waned in the light of
         Ethiopia not included as does not have a securities exchange
         Sources: National securities exchanges, national central banks, OMFIF analysis                                                       credit ratings downgrades and political

         16 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 16                                                                                                                                07/10/2019 09:41
uncertainty. Ghana is trying to reduce      company and underpinned by                  ‘An efficient and liquid
         foreign investment in its government        blockchain technology, the first public
         debt. The country’s central bank and        offering of its kind.
                                                                                                  bond market provides
         finance ministry are discussing a cap                                                    some scope for effective
         on the amount of debt that can be           Ghana is working on a ‘capital market
                                                     master plan’ for the next decade of          transmission mechanism
         held by foreign investors, as a way to
         reduce external vulnerabilities.            development, though few details              for monetary policy.’
                                                     are yet available. Legislation was
         Fostering market growth                     introduced to permit the listing of          Maxwell Opoku-Afari, first
         It has become a more challenging            real estate investment trusts on the         deputy governor, Bank of
         environment for new listings in             exchange. Mauritius has created a            Ghana, June 2019
         certain countries. Kenya’s interest         new regulatory and tax framework to
         rate cap, introduced in 2016, has           encourage development of Reits.
         hampered credit creation, weakening         Merging and making markets
         companies’ financial bottom line
         and hindering their expansion plans,        The past year has seen progress in
         negatively impacting their capital          initiatives to launch new markets or
         issuance. The value of bonds listed         merge existing ones, which should
         on the Nairobi exchange doubled to          improve efficiency and liquidity.
         $17.5bn from $8.8bn over the year,          Cameroon’s Douala Stock Exchange
         due entirely to sovereign issues. One       merged with the Bourse des Valeurs
         survey respondent said the country’s        Mobilières de l’Afrique Centrale to
         large government bond issuance in           create a unified regional exchange in
         recent years has crowded out investor       Central Africa. Cameroon’s regulator
         demand for private sector securities.       has also joined forces with the
         Many countries plan to bolster their        regional regulator, a move that survey
         market capitalisation. Kenya’s Capital      respondents expect will add depth to
         Markets Authority wants to boost            the financial market framework.
         the country’s venture capital and           The West African Capital Markets
         private equity markets to create a          Integration programme is an ongoing         Figure 1.3: Market

                                                                                                                                                                              outstanding, listed on exchanges, $bn
         pipeline of smaller firms that can          project that would closely align the

                                                                                                                                                                              Total sovereign and corporate bonds
                                                                                                 size and liquidity
         pursue initial public offerings. The        exchanges of Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Total turnover in bond market,
         Capital Markets Authority of Uganda         Leone, Cape Verde and the BRVM. It

                                                                                                                                                % of market capitalisation
                                                                                                                                                Total turnover of equities,
         is developing mandatory listings for        would allow brokers from each country
                                                                                                                       Market capitalisation,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      % bonds outstanding
         firms in strategic sectors such as          to trade directly on any of the others’
         telecommunications, tier one banks and      exchanges. The regional regulator is
         mining firms to increase the number
                                                     also working to develop covered bonds,
                                                                                                                       % of GDP

         of listed companies on its bourse. The
                                                     green and social bonds, and Reits.
         Casablanca Stock Exchange launched
         a programme in 2016 to encourage            Ethiopia plans to develop a secondary         South Africa         292                           33                       342                                    190.9
         listings of small and medium-sized          market in government bonds, which             Botswana             204                           0                        13                                     1.4
         enterprises and expects the first such      should create the basis for a broader         Mauritius            72                            4                        3                                      1.3
         IPOs to go ahead this year.                 securities exchange. Respondents              Morocco              51                            9                        15                                     0.7
                                                                                                   Rwanda               35                            0                        4                                      0.2
                                                     expect Ethiopia’s privatisation of Ethio
         The Bourse Régionale des Valeurs                                                          Senegal              33                            4                        2                                      5.1
                                                     Telecom will aid the formulation of a
         Mobilières, the UEMOA stock exchange,                                                     Kenya                25                            6                        35                                     17.5
         introduced in 2017 its small-cap index      stock market.                                 Uganda               22                            0                        0                                      2.1
                                                                                                   Seychelles           21                            3                        0                                      0.2
         to help provide smaller firms with          The Stock Exchange of Mauritius began
                                                                                                   Ivory Coast          19                            4                        2                                      5.1
         capital before a listing on the main        trading in commercial paper after             Namibia              18                            2                        3                                      3.1
         exchange, but still awaits its first        the central bank finalised regulations        Zambia               18                            1                        9                                      5.5
         listing. Egypt’s market capitalisation      for issuance and trading. There are           Egypt                18                            26                       10                                     43.1
         was lifted by the privatisation of a        further plans to create a green bond          Ghana                17                            0                        78                                     14.8
         number of state-owned enterprises.                                                        Tanzania             14                            1                        5                                      4.1
                                                     market. Mauritius established a new
                                                                                                   Nigeria              9                             6                        66                                     58.3
         The MERJ Exchange (formerly Trop-X)         commodities and derivatives exchange          Mozambique           4                             0                        3                                      1.0
         in the Seychelles demutualised in           to enhance its position as a wealth           Cameroon             1                             0                        4                                      0.3
         September and listed on its own             and asset management destination.             Ethiopia             0                             0                        0                                      0.0
         market. It launched tokenised               Similarly, Ghana’s commodity exchange         Angola               0                             0                        37                                     7.5
         securities of its own stock – digital       has started operations, trading              Sources: National stock exchanges, national central
                                                                                                  banks, World Federation of Exchanges, Thomson
         assets representing shares in a             agricultural products.                       Reuters, OMFIF analysis

                                                                                                Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 17

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 17                                                                                                                                                                                 07/10/2019 09:41
Pillar 2:
         Access to foreign exchange

                                                     Chott El Jerid, Salt Lake, Tunisia
                                                        33.7782° N | 8.3965° E

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 18                                   07/10/2019 09:41
Rebuilding and reforming
        Foreign exchange liquidity is improving in key index economies, while oil exporters
        appear to be recovering from past difficulties and strengthening foreign reserves.

        Figure  2.1:
            Figure   South
                   2.1:       Africa,Egypt
                        South Africa,  Egypt
                                           and and Uganda
                                               Uganda buoyed buoyed
                                                             by foreignby  foreign
                                                                        exchange    exchange liquidity
                                                                                 liquidity

            Scores
        Scores     for Pillar
               for Pillar     2 indicators,
                          2 indicators,     max=400;harmonised
                                         max=400;   harmonised score,
                                                                score,max=100
                                                                       max=100(RHS)
                                                                                (RHS)

         400                                                                                                                                                                                                                              100

         350                                                                                                                                                                                                                              90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          80
         300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          70
         250                                                                                                                                                                                                                              60
         200                                                                                                                                                                                                                              50

         150                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30
         100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20
           50                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10
             0                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                   Mauritius
                                                      Rwanda

                                                                                                        Tanzania
                    South Africa

                                                               Kenya

                                                                       Botswana

                                                                                               Zambia

                                                                                                                                                       Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nigeria

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ethiopia
                                   Egypt

                                                                                                                                                                              Cameroon

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ghana

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Angola
                                                                                  Seychelles

                                                                                                                                                                 Mozambique
                                             Uganda

                                                                                                                                             Morocco

                                                                                                                                                                                          Senegal
                                                                                                                               Ivory Coast

                                           Net portfolio investment to reserves                                                              Interbank FX turnover
                                           FX capital controls                                                                               Official exchange rate reporting standard
                                           Pillar 2 harmonised score (RHS)

         Sources: International Monetary Fund, national central banks, OMFIF analysis. Note: The harmonised score (RHS)
         represents  the average
              Sources:           of all Pillar
                         International         2 indicators
                                          Monetary     Fund,andnational
                                                                is used tocentral
                                                                           compilebanks,
                                                                                   the total scoresanalysis.
                                                                                          OMFIF     for PillarsNote:
                                                                                                                1-6. More
                                                                                                                      The
         information  on p.38-39.
              harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all Pillar 2 indicators and is used to
                 compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.

                                                                                                                                                                                         Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 19

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 19                                                                                                                                                                                              07/10/2019 09:41
Pillar 2 examines factors that impact                                                                                  interbank market and is responsible for                                                              Africa’s interbank foreign exchange
         markets’ accessibility to international                                                                                almost 60% of total activity. However,                                                               activity is still highest, with turnover
         investors. These include the existence                                                                                 the index score deliberately excludes                                                                equivalent to 466% of GDP. Mauritius is
         and severity of capital controls,                                                                                      central bank transactions to reflect                                                                 second at 98%, followed by Uganda at
         exchange rate reporting standards and                                                                                  market activity only.                                                                                72%. Excluding South Africa, the index
         the level of foreign exchange liquidity.                                                                                                                                                                                    average is 13% of GDP.
                                                                                                                                In 2016, Ghana loosened surrender
         This pillar also addresses the need                                                                                                                                                                                         The FX Global Code, established in
                                                                                                                                and repatriation requirements for
         to manage volatility resulting from                                                                                                                                                                                         2017 through the efforts of central
                                                                                                                                exporters, which partly explains
         openness. This is measured by central                                                                                                                                                                                       banks worldwide and the Bank for
                                                                                                                                the growth in its interbank foreign
         banks’ ability to meet demand for                                                                                                                                                                                           International Settlements, sets best
                                                                                                                                exchange market. The move has
         currency, by looking at the ratio of net                                                                                                                                                                                    practice principles for the foreign
                                                                                                                                allowed more foreign currency to
         portfolio flows to reserves.                                                                                                                                                                                                exchange market. Market participants
                                                                                                                                flow through the commercial banking
         South Africa reclaims the top spot in                                                                                  system rather than being facilitated                                                                 in South Africa, Kenya and Botswana
         this pillar after having been overtaken                                                                                only by the central bank. The result                                                                 are adopting the code, according to
         by Kenya in the previous edition of                                                                                    has been a steady increase in monthly                                                                survey responses. Only a few banks
         this index. High interbank foreign                                                                                     interbank foreign exchange turnover.                                                                 in Mauritius have adopted the code.
         exchange turnover, regular exchange                                                                                    The BoG published the Ghana                                                                          More are expected to follow suit, which
         rate reporting and a favourable reserve                                                                                Interbank Forex Market Conduct, a set                                                                would improve the country’s standing
         level relative to net portfolio flows                                                                                  of guidelines for market participants,                                                               in coming years.
         all contribute to South Africa’s high                                                                                  to support further development.                                                                      Reserves running low
         position. Kenya, meanwhile, drops
                                                                                                                                South Africa has the most active                                                                     Zambia suffers the largest drop in its
         in ranking after the International
                                                                                                                                interbank foreign exchange market,                                                                   score for portfolio reserves. These fell
         Monetary Fund reclassified its
                                                                                                                                with annual turnover reaching $1.7tn                                                                 to $1.6bn at the end of 2018 from a
         exchange rate regime to ‘other
                                                                                                                                in 2018, considerably higher than other                                                              peak of just under $4bn in 2015. The
         managed arrangement’ from ‘floating’,
                                                                                                                                index countries. Egypt and Mauritius                                                                 2018 figure is far below the generally
         a move the central bank contests.
                                                                                                                                follow, each with foreign exchange                                                                   accepted adequacy benchmark of three
         Boosting foreign exchange liquidity                                                                                    turnover greater than $10bn. Nigeria’s                                                               months’ imports cover. Reserves fell
                                                                                                                                turnover rose by 38% to $7.8bn from                                                                  slightly further over the first half of
         Ghana scores low in this pillar overall,
                                                                                                                                $5.6bn the year before. On the other                                                                 2019. Zambia still pays interest on
         though its interbank foreign exchange
                                                                                                                                hand, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Ethiopia,                                                                external debt, its mining production
         market has deepened in recent years.
                                                                                                                                the Seychelles, Angola, Cameroon and                                                                 has declined, and international
         Monthly average turnover in the
                                                                                                                                Rwanda have negligible or no interbank                                                               investors have less appetite for
         interbank foreign exchange market
                                                                                                                                foreign exchange turnover.                                                                           Zambian assets.
         doubled to around $200m in 2018.
         The Bank of Ghana deals heavily in the                                                                                 Even relative to its economy, South                                                                  Following the sharp fall in oil prices in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2014, Angola ran significant current
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     account deficits. Its stock of reserves
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     has since halved. It achieved a current
            Figure 2.2: Foreign exchange exposure uneven across countries                                                                                                                                                            account surplus in 2018 for the first
            Net portfolio investment to reserves, %                                                                                                                                                                                  time in five years, but its reserves
                 100                                                                                                                                                                                                                 relative to its net portfolio investment
           50                                                                                                                                                                                                                        remain low, weighing on its pillar score.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     In contrast, Nigeria, the continent’s
           40                                                                                                                                                                                                                        other major oil exporter, has kept a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     tighter control over deficits and has
           30                                                                                                                                                                                                                        been running a current account surplus
           20                                                                                                                                                                                                                        since 2016. It has held successful
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Eurobond issuances and built up its
           10                                                                                                                                                                                                                        reserves back to more than $40bn.

             0                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Uganda performs strongly in this
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     pillar, with almost the same score as
                                                                                                                                      Seychelles
                  Mauritius
                              Ghana

                                                        Nigeria
                                                                  Ivory Coast
                                                                                Kenya
                                                                                        Namibia
                                                                                                  Botswana

                                                                                                                            Senegal

                                                                                                                                                           Morocco
                                                                                                                                                                     Uganda

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                                   Egypt
                                                                                                             South Africa

                                                                                                                                                                              Rwanda
                                      Zambia

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Tanzania
                                               Angola

                                                                                                                                                                                       Cameroon
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mozambique

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     top-ranked South Africa. It has a high
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     level of foreign reserves relative to net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     portfolio investment flows and enough
           Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OMFIF analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     reserves to cover more than four
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     months of imports.

         20 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 20                                                                                                                                                                                                                       07/10/2019 09:41
Mauritius has high net portfolio            ‘In 2016, Ghana                                Fig 2.3: IMF classification of
          investment, but is less vulnerable to
          foreign exchange fluctuations. The
                                                       loosened surrender                            exchange rate regimes

          significant inward flow is due to its        and repatriation
          position as a favourable domicile for
          funds, often comprised of international
                                                       requirements for
          money invested globally.                     exporters, which                                Floating
          The combined reserves of index               partly explains                                 The exchange rate is market-
          countries have climbed 9% over the          the growth in its                                determined. The central bank rarely,
                                                                                                       if at all, intervenes to manage the
          last five years to $244bn. Nominally,
          the holders of the largest reserves are
                                                       interbank foreign                               exchange rate.
          South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt, with        exchange market. The                            Ghana                            South Africa
          52% of the total.
                                                       move has allowed                                Mauritius                        Tanzania
          Mixed year for floating rates                more foreign currency                           Mozambique                       Uganda
                                                                                                       Nigeria                          Zambia
          Few major changes in exchange rate          to flow through the                               Seychelles
          regimes can be observed across index
          countries each year. Nine have freely        commercial banking
          floating regimes, while the rest are a       system rather than
          mix of intermediate or fixed regimes.
                                                       being facilitated only
          The IMF is urging Angola to move
          towards a freer exchange rate as
                                                       by the central bank.’
                                                                                                       Intermediate
          part of its bail-out after the country
          transitioned to a band system in                                                             The exchange rate floats within a
          early 2018. The kwanza has gradually                                                         pre-determined range, or the central
          depreciated and is now around half                                                           bank may intervene occasionally
          of its previously fixed value against                                                        in a managed float arrangement.
                                                      Nigerian importers’ reliance on dollar
          the dollar. Angola’s central bank                                                            May also be referred to as a soft or
                                                      transactions.
          stopped direct sales of foreign                                                              crawling peg.
          currency late last year. These will be      Some countries are moving away
          handled by authorised commercial                                                             Angola                          Kenya
                                                      from freer regimes. Early last year
          banks. According to local analysts,                                                          Egypt                           Morocco
                                                      the IMF reclassified Kenya’s exchange
          the policy has improved foreign                                                              Ethiopia                        Rwanda
                                                      rate regime to ‘other managed
          exchange liquidity and increased            arrangement’ from ‘floating’. In its
          the volume of foreign exchange. The         October 2018 Article IV economic
          kwanza’s depreciation and rebound           health check, the Fund noted that
          in oil prices last year helped Angola       the shilling was overvalued by around
          reduce its twin deficits. A rebuilding      18%. It was one of the best performing
          of its foreign reserves and possible        African currencies over 2018 and                 Fixed
          reclassification of its exchange rate       has been stable against the dollar,
          regime to ‘flexible’ from ‘intermediate’                                                     The exchange rate is tied to another
                                                      which climbed against most African
          could raise its Pillar 2 score in coming                                                     country’s currency or a composite
                                                      currencies during the second half of
          years.                                                                                       of other currencies. May also be
                                                      the year. The Central Bank of Kenya
                                                                                                       referred to as a hard peg. The central
          Nigeria has moved towards unifying          disagreed with the IMF’s assessment,
                                                                                                       bank intervenes to maintain the
          its various exchange rates and allowed      arguing it only intervenes in foreign            exchange rate.
          its foreign exchange fixing rate (the       exchange markets to counter volatility,
          rate at which it sells dollars to certain   and that the lender exaggerated the              Botswana                        Namibia
          local companies) to depreciate. This        shilling’s overvaluation.                        Cameroon                        Senegal
          has brought it closer to the Nigerian                                                        Ivory Coast
          autonomous foreign exchange rate            The reclassification pulls down Kenya’s
          fixing rate used by foreign bond and        rank but its score is still among the
          stock investors. Last year it signed a      highest in the pillar, as other indicators
          currency swap agreement with China,         remain healthy. It has a large stock of
          its second largest trade partner, to        foreign reserves, worth four months of         Sources: International Monetary Fund, OMFIF analysis.
                                                                                                     Note: Kenya formally disagrees with the IMF’s definition of
          increase trade and ease pressure            imports and 10 times its 2018 figure           its currency regime.

          on the naira-dollar rate by reducing        for net portfolio investment.

                                                                                                   Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019 | 21

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 21                                                                                                      07/10/2019 09:53:14
Pillar 3:
         Market transparency, tax and
         regulatory environment

                                                     Pyramids of Meroe, Sudan
                                                     16.9380° N | 33.7489° E

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 22                         07/10/2019 09:41
Mixed progress on international standards enforcement
         Many countries are moving towards supportive tax systems. However, in several
         jurisdictions, transparent financial reporting is hindered by a lack of accounting and
         audit capacity, attitudes to transparency and enforcement problems.

             Figure
         Figure 3.1:3.1: SouthAfrica
                      South   Africa leads
                                      leadsonon
                                             transparency and taxand
                                                transparency      environment
                                                                     tax environment
             Scores
         Scores     for Pillar
                for Pillar     3 categories,
                           3 categories,     max=800;
                                         max=800;     harmonisedscore,
                                                   harmonised    score,max=100
                                                                       max=100 (RHS)
                                                                               (RHS)

         800                                                                                                                                                                                                                            100
         700                                                                                                                                                                                                                            90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        80
         600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        70
         500                                                                                                                                                                                                                            60
         400                                                                                                                                                                                                                            50
         300                                                                                                                                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        30
         200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        20
         100                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
             0                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                    Mauritius

                                                                                               Tanzania
                                                                                      Zambia

                                                                                                                             Kenya
                                                          Rwanda

                                                                                                                                                           Angola

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Ethiopia
                                                                           Botswana
                     South Africa

                                                Nigeria

                                                                   Ghana

                                                                                                                   Namibia

                                                                                                                                     Egypt

                                                                                                                                                                                           Seychelles
                                                                                                                                             Ivory Coast

                                                                                                                                                                    Mozambique

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cameroon
                                                                                                          Uganda

                                                                                                                                                                                 Morocco

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Senegal

                                                 Financial stability regulation                                                      Reporting and accounting standards
                                                 Tax environment                                                                     Financial information availability
                                                 Market development                                                                  Corporate action governance structure
                                                 Protection of minority shareholders                                                 Existence of credit rating
                                                 Pillar 3 harmonised score (RHS)

         Source: Bank for International Settlements, International Financial Reporting Standards, Deloitte International Accounting
               Source:
         Standard        BankBank
                   Plus, World  for International
                                     Doing Business,Settlements,       International
                                                      Standard & Poor’s,               Financial
                                                                           Moody’s, Fitch,         Reporting
                                                                                           OMFIF analysis. Note:Standards,
                                                                                                                 Category scores (LHS)
         provide the average  of indicator scores within each category.  The  harmonised   score (RHS)
               Deloitte International Accounting Standard Plus, World Bank Doing Business, Standard    represents the average
                                                                                                                           & of all Pillar
         3 indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.
                 Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, OMFIF analysis. Note: Category scores (LHS) provide the average of
                 indicator scores within each category. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of
                 all Pillar 3 indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars
                                                                                         Absa1-6.
                                                                                              AfricaMore   information
                                                                                                    Financial Markets Index 2019 | 23
                 on p.38-39.

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 23                                                                                                                                                                                      07/10/2019 09:41
This pillar assesses countries’                                           Kenya’s tax code is generally                                    from one of the low-scoring countries
         regulatory and tax environments for                                       supportive, according to one local tax                           suggested that corporation tax
         financial markets. These factors play a                                   professional. However, in an effort to                           discounts for listed companies would
         fundamental role in offering investors                                    raise revenue, the government has                                promote further development.
         incentives to invest in financial                                         introduced prohibitive taxes, such
                                                                                                                                                    Mauritius, Nigeria and South Africa
         products. They provide transparency,                                      as an increased levy on mobile cash
                                                                                                                                                    score highest for tax overall. Nigeria
         which is vital for fostering investor                                     transactions. Responses were positive
                                                                                                                                                    has 14 ratified tax treaties and six
         confidence.                                                               for Tanzania and Rwanda, where low
                                                                                                                                                    in the pipeline. ‘Nigeria’s tax system
                                                                                   taxes on capital gains and interest
         Ghana scores highly, receiving a                                                                                                           has performed considerably well in
                                                                                   income boost scores for their tax
         near-perfect score for its tax regime.                                                                                                     encouraging and facilitating financial
                                                                                   environment.
         Financial market participants view                                                                                                         market development,’ said a senior
                                                                                   Tax systems in Angola and Botswana                               member of a major accountancy
         its tax system as broadly favourable
                                                                                   are less friendly. Respondents                                   firm. Mauritius earned similar praise,
         to financial market development.
                                                                                   said their systems were generally                                although in fostering a tax system
         Two respondents praised its
                                                                                   unsupportive of financial market                                 that encourages financial market
         straightforward tax code, as well as
                                                                                   growth. One financial institution                                development, it must avoid being
         exemptions on a variety of capital
                                                                                   executive in Botswana said that                                  seen as a tax haven by international
         market taxes such as capital gains                                        planned improvements to the                                      authorities. In 2018, it introduced
         earned on listed stocks and interest                                      tax regime were not high on the                                  some levies on banks and financial
         on government bonds to non-                                               government’s agenda, and there                                   institutions to comply with the
         residents. There are also exemptions                                      was insufficient public consultation                             Organisation for Economic Co-
         on interest paid to resident individuals                                  on changes that have been made.                                  operation and Development’s base
         by the government, local financial                                        Ugandan respondents were also                                    erosion and profit-sharing initiatives.
         institutions, unit trust schemes and                                      downbeat, saying the country has                                 As a result, the OECD concluded that
         mutual funds. In addition, there are                                      the highest tax rates on dividends                               Mauritius does not have a ‘harmful
         tax holidays or exemptions for venture                                    in the region with no exemptions                                 tax regime’ in terms of unfair tax
         capital companies, rural banks and real                                   or incentives to encourage financial                             competition, confirming its position as
         estate investment trusts.                                                 market development. A central banker                             a compliant jurisdiction.
                                                                                                                                                    Financial market transparency
         Figure 3.2: Most countries comply with global accounting standards                                                                         Adoption of the latest financial
         International Financial Reporting Standards required                                                                                       reporting and accounting standards
                                                                                    IFRS Standards                                                  helps improve transparency, which can
                                                 IFRS Standards
                                                                                    are required or                  The IFRS for SMEs              increase domestic and international
                                                 are required for
                                                                                     permitted for                  Standard is required            investor confidence. International
                                                 domestic public
                                                                                  listings by foreign                  or permitted                 financial reporting standards have
                                                   companies
                                                                                       companies
                                                                                                                                                    been widely adopted in 17 of the 20
          Botswana                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                    index countries. Of the remaining
          Ghana                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                    three, Ethiopia is planning a full roll-
          Kenya                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                    out for public companies by 2020,
          Mauritius                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                    which would boost its performance in
          Namibia                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                    this pillar. Ethiopian banks, insurance
          Nigeria                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                    companies and public enterprises are
          Rwanda                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                    in the process of adopting IFRS 9,
          South Africa                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                    transitioning from Generally Accepted
          Tanzania                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                    Accounting Principles. No domestic
          Uganda                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                    companies use IFRS in Egypt, while in
          Zambia                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                    the Seychelles only the central bank
          Cameroon                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                    has adopted these standards.
          Ivory Coast                                                                                                            
          Senegal                                                                                                                                There are common complaints
          Angola                                                                                                                                 across index countries with regard
          Morocco                                                                                                                                to financial reporting. Those that
          Mozambique                                                                                                                             have adopted IFRS still find market
          Egypt                                                                                                                                  reporting hindered by factors such
          Ethiopia                                                                                                                               as a lack of regulatory enforcement
          Seychelles                                                                                                                             or insufficient accountancy and audit
         Source: International Financial Reporting Standards, OMFIF analysis. Countries are ordered by number of tick marks, then alphabetically.   capacity. ‘Financial reports are not

         24 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2019

Absa_financial_market_index_2019_live file.indd 24                                                                                                                                     07/10/2019 09:41
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