Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF

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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
Absa Africa Financial
Markets Index 2018
Taking you further into Africa
than ever before.

                     28.5167° S | 28.6167° E

                                               Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 1
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
The Absa Africa Financial Markets              Absa Group Limited (‘Absa Group’) is listed on the Johannesburg Stock
Index was produced by OMFIF in                 Exchange and is one of Africa’s largest diversified financial services groups.
association with Absa Group Limited.
The scores on p.7 and elsewhere                Absa Group offers an integrated set of products and services across
record the total result (max=100) of           personal and business banking, corporate and investment banking, wealth
assessments accross Pillars 1-6. For           and investment management and insurance.
methodology see individual Pillar              Absa Group has a presence in 12 countries in Africa, with approximately
assessments and p.38-39.                       42,000 employees.

OMFIF conducted extensive                      The Group’s registered head office is in Johannesburg, South Africa, and
quantitative research and data                 it owns majority stakes in banks in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius,
analysis with additional data input            Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa (Absa Bank), Tanzania (Barclays Bank
from Absa. Qualitative survey data             Tanzania and National Bank of Commerce), Uganda and Zambia. The Group
were collected and analysed by OMFIF           also has representative offices in Namibia and Nigeria, as well as insurance
with significant in-country expertise          operations in Botswana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and
provided by Absa. The report was               Zambia.
written by OMFIF, with Absa acting in
                                               For further information about Absa Group Limited, please visit
an advisory capacity.
                                               www.absa.africa
© 2018 The Absa Group Limited and
OMFIF Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
                                               The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is an independent
Absa Marketing                                 think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment – a
                                               non-lobbying network for best practice in worldwide publicprivate sector
and Events team                                exchanges. At its heart are Global Public Investors – central banks, sovereign
                                               funds and public pension funds – with investable assets of $33.8tn,
Malcolm Isaacs, Business Manager,
                                               equivalent to 45% of world GDP. With offices in both London and Singapore,
Fiona Kigen, Marketing Manager,
                                               OMFIF focuses on global policy and investment themes – particularly in
Karena Crerar, Communications
                                               asset management, capital markets and financial supervision/regulation –
Manager, Msizi Khoza, Chief of Staff
                                               relating to central banks, sovereign funds, pension funds, regulators and
                                               treasuries. OMFIF promotes higher standards, performance-enhancing
OMFIF Editorial, Meetings                      exchanges between public and private sectors and a better understanding of
and Marketing team                             the world economy, in an atmosphere of mutual trust.

Simon Hadley, Production Manager,              For further information about OMFIF, please visit www.omfif.org
Julian Frazer, Senior Editor, Sarah
Holmes, Deputy Director, Head of
Meetings and Membership Operations,
Sofia Melis, Relationship Manager,
Stefan Berci, Communications
Manager, James Fitzgerald, Senior
Marketing Executive.

2 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
Contents
Forewords4-5                                                                        Pillar 4:
                                                                                     Capacity of local
Introduction6-7                                                                     investors
                                                                                     24-27
Executive summary                                    8-11                           Examines the size of local
                                                                                     investors, assessing the level
Contains country comparisons and highlights                                          of local demands against
opportunities and challenges for the region’s financial                              supply of assets available in
markets.                                                                             each market.

Acknowledgments11

                           Pillar 1:
                           Market depth
                           12-15                                                    Pillar 5:
                           Examines size, liquidity                                  Macroeconomic
                           and depth of markets and                                  opportunity
                           diversity of products in each                             28-31
                           market.                                                   Assesses countries’ economic
                                                                                     prospects using metrics
                                                                                     on growth, debt, export
                                                                                     competitiveness, banking
                                                                                     sector risk and availability of
                                                                                     macro data.

                           Pillar 2:
                           Access to foreign                                         Pillar 6: Legality and
                           exchange                                                 enforceability of standard
                           16-19                                                    financial markets
                           Assesses the ease with which                              master agreements
                           foreign investors can deploy
                           and repatriate capital in the                             32-35
                           region.                                                   Tracks the commitment to
                                                                                     international financial market
                                                                                     agreements, enforcement
                                                                                     of netting and collateral
                                                                                     positions and the strength of
                                                                                     insolvency frameworks.

                                                              Country snapshots                                36-37
                           Pillar 3:
                           Market transparency,               Indicators and Methodology                       38-39
                           tax and regulatory
                           environment
                           20-23
                           Evaluates the tax and
                           regulatory frameworks in
                           each jurisdiction, as well as
                           the level of financial stability
                           and of transparency of
                           financial information.

                                                                             Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 3
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
Vital role for
                                               the future

                                               Akinwumi Adesina
                                               President of the African
                                               Development Bank

  Aim of index                                 Capital markets play a vital role in Africa’s future. The
                                               continent’s financial markets have remained resilient
  African economies                            and innovative amid slowing worldwide growth after
                                               the synchronised upturn of 2017. However, they remain
  are undergoing a                             fragmented and shallow compared to their equivalents in
                                               Latin America and Asia. The second edition of the Absa
  significant period                           Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by OMFIF, draws
                                               attention to the considerable investment opportunities and
  of transition and                            untapped market potential of countries across the continent.
                                               The African Development Bank’s African Financial Markets
  appraisal, with                              Initiative was launched in 2008 to develop local currency
                                               bond markets. Africa’s capital markets have grown
  growing foreign                              significantly over the past few decades, with around 30
                                               stock exchanges in 2018 against just five in the 1980s. Total
  investment                                   local currency sovereign bond issues increased to more than
                                               $240bn in 2017 from $28bn in 2000. This includes 94% of
  interest and much                            Treasury bills with original maturity of less than one year in

  examination of the                           2000 v. around 80% in 2017. The Bank’s African Financial
                                               Market Database expanded to 43 countries in 2015 from 22
  continent’s potential                        in 2012.
                                               Resilient and deeper financial markets are essential to
  for mobilising local                         Africa’s transformation. Achieving the Bank’s ‘High 5’
                                               objectives for accelerating Africa’s transformation (light up
  resources. Now in                            and power, feed, integrate, industrialise and improve the
                                               quality of life for the people of Africa) depends on financial
  its second year, the                         markets playing a greater role in financing the real economy.

  index has become a                           The Bank’s goal is to support 20 capital markets over the
                                               next decade and address market development challenges,
  benchmark for the                            including those identified in the various indicators of the six
                                               pillars of this index. That is why the Bank engages with the
  investment community                         public and private sectors to support market reforms, such
                                               as policy modernisation and frameworks governing capital
  and Africa generally                         markets. Flexibility in accessing capital markets is key to
                                               unlocking domestic savings and attracting investment.
  to gauge countries’                          Africa’s transformation requires significant resources. To
                                               achieve universal energy access by 2025, for example, policy-
  performance and                              makers must mobilise $30bn-$55bn annually in domestic
                                               and international capital. This calls for a shift of resource
  highlight how they can                       mobilisation, deploying robust financial systems and capital
                                               markets. The private sector will need to bear much of the
  learn from others.                           load. This latest OMFIF report provides an excellent basis
                                               for the acceleration of the delivery of the Bank’s ‘High 5’
                                               strategy and I strongly commend its publication.

4 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
FOREWORDS

Resilient capital markets are a                                   Co-operation underpins
necessity, not a luxury                                           inclusive growth

Jingdong Hua                                                      Maria Ramos
Vice-President and Treasurer,                                     Chief Executive Officer,
International Finance Corporation                                 Absa Group

Delve into the history of countries that have achieved            Greater co-operation and collaboration between African
transformative economic growth and a common                       countries will be the fundamental building blocks
denominator emerges: in nearly every case they relied on          for sustainable economic development, accelerating
sound financial architecture to effectively build and connect     industrialisation and the achievement of inclusive
savings to investments. Africa’s potential, if it harnesses       growth. The recent signing of the African Continental
the power of resilient financial architecture, is likewise,
                                                                  Free Trade Agreement by most member states of
enormous.
                                                                  the African Union has ushered in an era of enhanced
Policy-makers must recognise that capital markets are             intraregional co-operation and was an important
as important as social and physical infrastructure. The           signpost on Africa’s journey towards building the
good news is that a new generation of African leaders             institutions and financial infrastructure that will attract
are embracing the long-term view, acknowledging the               local and international investors.
development paradigm has changed, and prioritising the
private sector.                                                   The second edition of the Absa Africa Financial Markets
As this second Absa Africa Financial Markets Index reveals,       Index comes at a time when emerging market economies
important steps are being taken to develop financial systems      are under intense pressure with currencies depreciating,
that are robust and large enough to entrench resilience. Still,   growth slowing and interest rates rising. The impact
Africa’s corporate bond market is markedly small, and many        has been driven in part by economic developments in
countries face financial, security or humanitarian challenges,    advanced economies but also local factors. The current
and an urgent need to diversity their economies.                  period has only highlighted the importance of strong
Without significant shifts in policy, the world is not on         domestic financial markets in improving economic
track to achieve the target of less than 3% of people living      resilience.
in extreme poverty by 2030. In some places, including             The 2018 edition of the index takes us further into
sub-Saharan Africa, poverty could remain in double digits         Africa’s financial markets than ever before. The
percentages. To create an enabling environment for job
                                                                  report assesses progress and potential across six
creation and shared prosperity, Africa must develop
deep, liquid and open capital markets both domestically           key areas: market depth; access to foreign exchange;
and regionally – ensuring efficient channelling of savings        market transparency, tax and regulatory environment;
towards entrepreneurs and financing vital rail, road, power       macroeconomic opportunity; and the legality and
and housing infrastructure.                                       enforceability of standard financial markets master
                                                                  agreements.
IFC – a sister organisation of the World Bank and member of
the World Bank Group – is the largest global development          We believe the index is an important tool that can be
institution focused exclusively on the private sector in          used by policy-makers and market participants to guide
developing countries. More and more of our clients in Africa      their efforts in building robust financial markets that can
are demanding local currency financing. As a triple A-rated       drive inclusive growth. We are proud to be relaunching
institution, we are increasingly offering local currency          the index as part of the Absa Group’s commitment to
solutions and access to local capital markets so they can
                                                                  contributing to pan-African growth and prosperity.
focus on growing business instead of worrying about
exchange rate volatility.
We are also committed to building capacity, and recently
welcomed our third class of fellows for the Capital Markets
Program we have developed with the Milken Institute and
the George Washington University, forming champions for
capital markets development in emerging economies. Capital
markets are not a luxury – they are a necessity.

                                                                                       Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 5
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
Signs of progress amid regional
         economic weakness

         The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by OMFIF, provides a toolkit for
         countries seeking to strengthen their financial markets infrastructure. It tracks
         progress on financial market developments annually across a range of countries
         and indicators. This year’s edition extends coverage to three additional countries –
         Angola, Cameroon and Senegal – and pays special attention to policies to enhance
         market growth, including financial inclusion and investor education. Kenya, Morocco
         and the Seychelles have improved their scores most over the last year, particularly
         in terms of openness to foreign exchange. Nigeria’s score has also strengthened,
         thanks to policies augmenting market depth and enhancing the capacity of local
         investors. Mauritius and Namibia, while still among the top performers, have seen
         their scores deteriorate across most pillars. Improvements in market infrastructure
         and regulatory frameworks could boost the performance of countries in the middle
         of the index over coming years.

6 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
INTRODUCTION

2018 2017                                    Score                                                         Comments

  1       1              South Africa         93      Deep and liquid financial markets but shows weaker macroeconomic outlook

  2       3                Botswana           65      Stable performance across pillars with efforts made to improve local investor base

  3       5                  Kenya            65      Top place for access to foreign exchange but limited product diversity

  4       2                Mauritius          62      Strong regulatory and legal framework but shallow foreign exchange market

  5       6                  Nigeria          61      Improvements in administrative efficiency and tax incentives boost regulatory environment

  6       4                 Namibia           57      Strong local investor base but low liquidity in domestic market

  7       7                  Ghana            55      Markets benefit from regulatory reforms but have weak insolvency framework

  8       9                  Zambia           53      Relaxation of capital controls supports growth of foreign exchange market

  9      12                 Morocco           50      Broad improvements across all pillars, especially on local investor base

 10      10                 Uganda            50      Stable performance with good foreign exchange access but low local investor capacity

 11       8                 Rwanda            49      Discrepancies between strong official rules on transparency and reality of implementation

 12      16                Seychelles         45      Liberalisation of capital account boosts foreign investment opportunities

 13      13               Ivory Coast         44      Improving reporting standards but weak foreign participation in the market

 14       -                 Senegal           44      Regional exchange provides opportunities for growth but legal framework lags behind peers

 15      11                 Tanzania          43      Mining sector regulations help market deepen but local investors continue to lack capacity

 16      14                   Egypt           42      Improving foreign exchange environment but problems with contract enforcing

 17       -                Cameroon           41      Low market depth and weak legal framework

 18      15              Mozambique           36      Improved reporting standard but poor access to foreign exchange

 19       -                  Angola           34      Move to more flexible exchange rate encourages foreign investment but capital controls still in place

 20      17                 Ethiopia          26      Underdeveloped financial system lacking security exchange and corporate bond market

Score across all pillars, max = 100. The second edition of the index adds three additional countries (Angola, Cameroon and Senegal). The scope for direct
comparison of countries’ position in the index between 2017 and 2018 is therefore limited.

                                                                                                                         Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 7
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

                                                                                                                       Morocco

Building Africa’s
financial markets
                                                                                                                  41 40 66 65 65 21

The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index evaluates financial
market development in 20 countries, as well as highlighting
economies with clearest growth prospects. The aim is to show
                                                                                                       Senegal
not just present positions but also how economies can improve
market frameworks to meet yardsticks for investor access and
sustainable growth. The Index assesses countries according to
six pillars: market depth; access to foreign exchange; tax and
regulatory environment and market transparency; capacity of
local investors; macroeconomic opportunity; and enforceability                                  45 53 64 21 50 30
of financial contracts, collateral positions and insolvency
frameworks.
In addition to quantitative analysis, OMFIF gained additional
insights by surveying over 50 policy-makers and top executives                                                      Ivory Coast
from financial institutions operating across the 20 countries,
including banks, investors, securities exchanges, central banks,
regulators, audit and accounting firms and international financial
and development institutions.                Continued on p.10 >>

                                                                                                                 40 66 67 14 51 26

Overall pillar scores max = 100
Pillar 1:                    Pillar 2:                Pillar 3:              Pillar 4:                     Pillar 5:
Market                       Access to foreign        Market transparency,   Capacity of                   Macroeconomic
depth                        exchange                tax and regulatory     local investors              opportunity
                                                      environment
South Africa       100        Kenya              93   Nigeria           94   South Africa         95       South Africa       75
Nigeria            66         South Africa       91   South Africa      94   Morocco              65       Egypt              71
Mauritius          56         Uganda             83   Rwanda            90   Botswana             64       Namibia            70
Ghana              55         Botswana           79   Mauritius         89   Namibia              56       Botswana           69
Botswana           48         Zambia             77   Botswana          78   Nigeria              50       Morocco            65
Zambia             48         Seychelles         75   Ghana             71   Seychelles           49       Kenya              65
Senegal            45         Namibia            72   Tanzania          70   Kenya                33       Uganda             63
Kenya              44         Ivory Coast        66   Kenya             70   Egypt                30       Mauritius          63
Namibia            43         Cameroon           62   Ivory Coast       67   Cameroon             29       Ethiopia           62
Uganda             43         Ghana              58   Morocco           66   Angola               29       Seychelles         61
Egypt              42         Nigeria            53   Senegal           64   Senegal              21       Nigeria            59
Morocco            41         Senegal            53   Uganda            60   Tanzania             19       Tanzania           58
Ivory Coast        40         Mauritius          52   Namibia           57   Mauritius            18       Angola             57
Mozambique         38         Morocco            40   Zambia            56   Mozambique           17       Ghana              57
Tanzania           35         Egypt              37   Angola            52   Ivory Coast          14       Rwanda             56
Angola             29         Tanzania           36   Mozambique        49   Rwanda               14       Cameroon           55
Cameroon           28         Rwanda             35   Egypt             45   Zambia               14       Ivory Coast        51
Seychelles         24         Ethiopia           30   Cameroon          45   Ghana                13       Senegal            50
Rwanda             21         Mozambique         29   Seychelles        26   Uganda               13       Mozambique         50
Ethiopia           10         Angola             29   Ethiopia          22   Ethiopia             10       Zambia             44

8 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 - Taking you further into Africa than ever before - OMFIF
Egypt

  KEY
   Pillar    1 Market depth
                                                                                   42 37 45 30 71 24
   Pillar    2 Access to foreign exchange
   Pillar    3 	Market transparency, tax and
                regulatory environment
   Pillar    4 Capacity of local investors
   Pillar    5 Macroeconomic opportunity
                                                                                                                         Ethiopia
   Pillar    6 	Legality and enforceability of standard
                financial markets master agreements

            Nigeria
                                                                                        Uganda                    10 30 22 10 62 23

                                      Cameroon

 66 53 94 50 59 42
                                                                                  43 83 60 13 63 33                      Kenya
            Ghana                                               Rwanda
                                 28 62 45 29 55 30

                                                                                                                44 43 70 33 65 83
 55 58 71 13 57 74                                       21 35 90 14 56 77                 Tanzania

                                                                                                                                   Seychelles
Pillar 6:
Legality and enforceability of            Angola
standard financial markets                                          Zambia
master agreements                                                                      35 36 70 19 58 38
South Africa          100
Mauritius             94                                                                                                    24 75 26 49 61 32
Kenya                 83
Zambia                78             29 29 52 29 57 10                                                     Mozambique
Rwanda                77                                     48 77 56 14 44 78

Ghana                 74
Botswana              52
                                                                             Botswana
Namibia               43                     Namibia
Nigeria               42
                                                                                                       38 29 49 17 50 32
Tanzania              38
Uganda                33
Seychelles            32
Mozambique            32                                              48 79 78 64 69 52
Senegal               30              43 72 57 56 70 43

Cameroon              30                                                                                         Mauritius
                                                                 South Africa
Ivory Coast           26
Egypt                 24
Ethiopia              23
Morocco               21
Angola                10
                                                                                                           56 52 89 18 63 94
                                                            100 91 94 95 75 100
                                                                                                         Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 9
The report finds that:


  Countries are progressing                     and regulatory environment’.             market growth and development’,
with policies that support the                                                           according to survey respondents.
                                                
                                                  The greatest area for improvement
development of financial markets
                                                for the continent remains the            
                                                                                           International financial reporting
across the continent. South
                                                ‘capacity of local investors’.           standards are required for domestic
Africa’s ‘twin peaks’ strategy for                                                       companies in 17 out of the 20
                                                Excluding the top-five scorers,
improving financial regulation and                                                       countries in the index. Both Ivory
                                                the remaining countries average a
Mozambique’s ‘financial sector                                                           Coast and Mozambique have
                                                score of just 22 in Pillar 4. Survey
development strategy’ stand out                                                          transitioned from ‘permitted but not
                                                respondents highlighted that the
among the frameworks introduced                                                          required’ to ‘required’ in the space of
                                                lack of knowledge and expertise
over the past year. Such initiatives                                                     a year.
                                                of pension fund trustees and
have boosted performance for the
                                                other asset owners hinders the             Only South Africa, Nigeria and
index as a whole.
                                                                                         

                                                development of new financial             Namibia use the Master Agreement

  While year-on-year comparisons                products, by reducing their demand       of the International Swaps and
can be problematic given the                    for more sophisticated assets and        Derivatives Association, the Global
introduction of three additional                strategies to diversify returns.         Master Repurchase Agreement
countries to the group (see                     Investor education is a major            and the Global Master Securities
Methodology on p.38-39 for more                 component of these countries’            Lending Agreement, making them
information), some broad trends                 financial development frameworks.        more prepared to drive product
can be noted: Kenya, Morocco and                                                         innovation and growth in the
                                                
                                                 ‘Market transparency, tax and
the Seychelles have improved their                                                       derivatives market. Other countries
                                                regulatory environment’ and
scores across the index, while those                                                     aiming to attract outside investment
                                                ‘macroeconomic opportunity’ are the
of Mauritius, Namibia and Tanzania                                                       must look at encouraging financial
                                                highest-ranking pillars. They are also
have deteriorated.                                                                       institutions to adopt international
                                                the ones with the smallest degree of

  South Africa continues to lead                variation among countries. Nigeria’s     standard master agreements.
the index, supported by strong                  score has jumped considerably,           Increasing the size and volume of
financial market infrastructure and             reflecting improvements in               intraregional transactions can be a
a robust legal framework. However,              administrative efficiency of             step towards wider use of these.
its macroeconomic performance has               the tax system, as well as the           
                                                                                           Foreign exchange liquidity remains
worsened. Additionally, it no longer            implementation of tax incentives         low in Africa, with just three
tops the index across all six pillars,          and exemptions for capital markets       countries (South Africa, Kenya and
having been overtaken by Kenya on               activities. In contrast, Uganda’s        Ghana) recording interbank foreign
‘access to foreign exchange’ and by             above-average withholding tax            exchange turnover above $20bn.
Nigeria in ‘market transparency, tax            rate and other policies ‘discourage      But markets are becoming more

10 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Acknowledgements

                                          Absa Group Limited
                                          Jeff Gable, Chief Economist
open. The central banks of Nigeria,       George Asante, Head of Markets (Africa ex. SA)
Morocco and Egypt are taking steps        Garth Klintworth, Global Head of Markets
to liberalise their exchange rates,
while Kenya, the Seychelles and           OMFIF
Zambia are relaxing capital controls.     Danae Kyriakopoulou, Chief Economist and Head of Research
                                          Ben Robinson, Deputy Head of Research

 Overall liquidity is generally low,
                                          Bhavin Patel, Economist
with 15 countries having equity
                                          Kat Usita, Economist
market turnover of less than 10%
                                          Max Roch, Research and Policy Analyst
of market capitalisation, and 10
                                          Pierre Ortlieb, Research Assistant
countries having bond turnover
of less than 10% of outstanding
bonds. However, policies to improve
market depth and activity are           The team consulted more than 50 policy-makers, regulators and
                                        market practitioners across African financial markets in writing this
being implemented. Online trading
                                        report, whom we thank for their views and opinions. Although some
platforms and the development of
                                        requested anonymity, we thank the following for their views and
derivatives products have improved      opinions:
Nigeria’s performance.
                                        Sheila Abrahams, Policy and Regulation Consultant, Johannesburg Stock

  Liberalising financial structures     Exchange
and pursuing greater integration
                                        Sunil Benimadhu, Chief Executive, Stock Exchange of Mauritius
with global markets can have
                                        Enid Busingye, Equity Sales Trader, SBG Securities, Stanbic Bank, Uganda
disruptive effects in the short term.
South Africa’s open and highly          Jacqueline Irving, Senior Sector Economist, Sector Economics and
                                        Development Impact Department, International Finance Corporation,
liquid foreign exchange market
                                        World Bank Group
has exposed it to capital outflows,
                                        George Kwatia, Tax Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers Ghana
reflecting’ concerns about the
country’s macroeconomic trajectory.     Vipin Mahabirsingh, Managing Director, Central Depository
                                        & Settlement, Mauritius
However, supporting liberalisation
and openness is necessary to help       Peter Moses, Research Analyst, Cordros Capital, Nigeria
the continent transition, diversify     Anica Nerlich, Financial Analyst, Global Macro and Market Research
and develop. Survey respondents         Department, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group
highlighted the importance of a         Rui Gonçalves Oliveira, Head of Asset Management, Banco Fomento
gradual and coordinated approach to     Angola
developing financial markets.           Isaac Sekitoleko, Senior Planning and Risk Officer, Capital Markets
                                        Authority, Uganda
                                        Nonde Sichilima, Manager Market Supervision, Securities and Exchange
                                        Commission, Zambia
                                        Madelein Smith, Managing Director, Namibia Equity Brokers
                                        Kaodi Ugoji, Associate Executive Director, Corporate Development, FMDQ
                                        OTC Securities, Nigeria

                                        We also thank individuals from the following institutions:
                                        International Finance Corporation, Africa Finance Corporation, Bank
                                        of West African States, Bank of Uganda, Bank of Mauritius, Mauritius
                                        Commercial Bank, Orbit Securities, Johannesburg Stock Exchange,
                                        the Nigerian and Ghanaian Securities and Exchange Commissions,
                                        Grant Thornton, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte.

                                                                       Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 11
Pillar 1:
Market depth
                                                33°55’51”S | 18°51’16”E
12 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Regional effort to boost listings and liquidity
African countries are implementing policies to bolster regional stock market
integration and encourage expansion. However, low liquidity, few prospects for new
listings and lack of product diversity present significant obstacles to capital market
growth across the continent.

Figure 1.1: Direct market access improves Nigeria’s score
Ranking of Pillar 1 categories, max = 500 (LHS) Harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS)

500                                                                                                                                                                                                                           100

450                                                                                                                                                                                                                           90

400                                                                                                                                                                                                                           80

350                                                                                                                                                                                                                           70

300                                                                                                                                                                                                                           60

250                                                                                                                                                                                                                           50

200                                                                                                                                                                                                                           40

150                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30

100                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20

 50                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10

  0                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
       South Africa

                                                                                                                                                                                             Seychelles
                                                      Botswana

                                                                                                                                 Ivory Coast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ethiopia
                                                                          Senegal

                                                                                                               Egypt

                                                                                                                                                            Tanzania
                                Mauritius
                      Nigeria

                                                                                    Kenya

                                                                                                                                                                       Angola
                                                                 Zambia

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rwanda
                                                                                                                                               Mozambique
                                                                                                      Uganda
                                                                                            Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                Cameroon
                                                                                                                       Morocco
                                              Ghana

                                            Product diversity                                         Size of markets                                                                      Liquidity
                                            Depth                                                     Primary dealer system                                                                Score (RHS)

Sources: National securities exchanges, national central banks, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS)
provide average scores for the indicators within each category. For full list of indicators, see Methodology on p.38-39. The
harmonised score (RHS) is the average of all indicators across all categories, giving a total pillar score.
                                                                                                                                                            Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 13
Deep and liquid capital markets are             which other securities can be priced.                                                                                                            turnover of less than 10%. Overbearing
fundamental to supporting economic              According to a multilateral financial                                                                                                            or inadequate regulation and oversight
growth, creating domestic investment            institution operating in Kenya, ‘Instead                                                                                                         of capital markets play a major role.
opportunities and attracting foreign            of issuance of a few large bonds in key                                                                                                          Regulators in one southern African
and local capital. Pillar 1 measures this       maturities that could provide good                                                                                                               country reported they ‘do not have full
by looking at market capitalisation and         reference points, the primary market                                                                                                             capacity to supervise the securities
product diversity. The average market           consists of many small-sized bonds                                                                                                               business due to shortage of staff’.
capitalisation of the 20 countries              concentrated in the short end of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Stringent, inflexible and outdated
covered by the index is just 56% of             yield curve.’ Short-term treasury bills
                                                                                                                                                                                                 regulation adds significantly to
GDP; even this low figure masks large           account for around 40% of all local
                                                                                                                                                                                                 costs. This makes it less attractive
variations between countries.                   currency debt in Kenya. This makes it
                                                                                                                                                                                                 for companies to list. ‘Cultivating
Only three countries (South Africa,             harder to build a broader market.                                                                                                                a pipeline of new prospective
Botswana and Ghana) have a market               Secondary markets are generally                                                                                                                  issuers remains a stumbling block,’
capitalisation greater than 100%                fragmented and illiquid, hindering                                                                                                               according to survey respondents in
of GDP, while in 14 countries it is             transparency and price formation. This                                                                                                           Kenya. Respondents in all countries
lower than 50%. Ethiopia lacks a                is reflected in low turnover figures for                                                                                                         highlighted this as a concern, even
securities exchange, apart from one             bonds and equities. Ten countries have                                                                                                           in relatively advanced markets like
for commodities. There are no equities          total bond market turnover of less than                                                                                                          South Africa, where local financial
listed on Angola’s exchange, and both           10%, and 15 countries have equity                                                                                                                firms complain ‘there are very few new
Cameroon and Mozambique have a                                                                                                                                                                   entrants’ and that the main issuers are
market capitalisation of less than 5%                                                                                                                                                            ‘the normal suspects’.
of GDP. South Africa is the only country
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Thin secondary markets
where the total value of listed equities
is more than $100bn, at $1.1tn.                                                                                                                                                                  This encourages buy-and-hold
                                                                                                                                                                                                 strategies, hindering secondary market
Almost all countries (except Angola,
                                                                                                                                                                                                 liquidity. There were no trades in
Cameroon and Ethiopia) have some
                                                                                                                                                                                                 corporate bonds in Zambia, Uganda,
form of corporate bond market. These,
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Rwanda, Namibia, Egypt, Cameroon
however, are typically small. Excluding
                                                Figure 1.2: Market                                                                                                                               and Angola over the last 12 months
                                                                                                                                                         outstanding, listed on exchanges, $bn
                                                                                                                                                         Total sovereign and corporate bonds

South Africa, with more than $40bn
                                                size and liquidity                                                                                                                               at least. This is because of the lack of
worth of listed corporate bonds, the
                                                                                                                        Total turnover in bond market,

                                                                                                                                                                                                 active market makers and investors
average value is just $707m. Total
                                                                                          % of market capitalisation
                                                                                          Total turnover of equities,

                                                                                                                                                                                                 holding on to assets that are scarce,
listed government bonds outvalue
                                                                 Market capitalisation,

                                                                                                                        % bonds outstanding

                                                                                                                                                                                                 according to respondents.
corporate bonds by around six-to-one,
at $313bn against $54bn.                                                                                                                                                                         While most countries have a
                                                                                                                                                                                                 primary dealer system in place for
                                                                 % of GDP

Given the relatively small volume of
                                                                                                                                                                                                 government bonds, the value of
outstanding securities, trading values
                                                                                                                                                                                                 ‘horizontal repo’ (transactions between
are generally low, with a lack of market        South Africa 316                                40                       294                             203.3                                   commercial banks) is low, resulting
makers and investors tending to buy             Botswana     228                                 1                         8                               1.4                                   in an inactive market. The lack of
bonds and holding them to maturity.             Ghana        118                                 1                        53                              46.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                 centralised collection of data on these
Excluding South Africa, which has               Mauritius     91                                 5                         5                               0.9
                                                Senegal       64                                 4                         1                               5.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                 transactions means the total value of
a bond turnover of almost 300% of
                                                Morocco       57                                11                        26                               0.8                                   horizontal repo is unclear. However,
market capitalisation, the average
                                                Rwanda        38                                 1                         2                               0.2                                   beyond South Africa and Nigeria (with
value of traded bonds to those                  Kenya         31                                 7                        40                              12.4                                   average daily turnover of around
outstanding was just 20% between July           Uganda        29                                 0                         0                               2.2                                   $6.5bn and $300m, respectively), all
2017-July 2018. For all countries in            Ivory Coast   26                                 4                         1                               5.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                 other markets are largely inactive. High
the index, the average value of traded          Zambia        24                                 2                        26                               5.5
                                                Namibia       22                                 2                         2                               2.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                 costs, unclear property rights and lack
equities to market capitalisation over
                                                Egypt         20                                36                         6                              43.8                                   of information are some of the reasons
those 12 months was even lower, at
                                                Tanzania      19                                 2                        12                               4.4                                   cited by survey respondents for this
6.4%.                                           Seychelles    18                                 1                         5                               0.2                                   low uptake.
Domestic limitations                            Nigeria       10                                10                       126                              23.8
                                                Mozambique     4                                 1                         4                               0.8                                   Some national policies aim to
Structural issues contribute to the             Cameroon       1                                 0                         2                               0.5                                   address these shortcomings.
low level of African capital market             Angola         0                                 0                        56                               7.5                                   Telecommunications and mining
development. Many countries lack                Ethiopia       -                                 -                         -                                 -                                   companies in Tanzania are required
a benchmark yield curve for liquid,             Sources: Thomson Reuters, National Stock Exchanges,                                                                                              to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock
                                                African Securities Exchanges Association, OMFIF analysis
long-dated government bonds against                                                                                                                                                              Exchange and float 25% of their shares

14 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
to local investors, adding substantially    mining and energy.                             ‘Secondary markets
to market capitalisation. However,
local investors often lack the capacity
                                            Market infrastructure is also improving.        are generally
                                            The South African Reserve Bank has set
to guarantee a full take-up, as in the
                                            up an electronic trading platform for
                                                                                           fragmented and
case of Vodacom in Tanzania and MTN
in Ghana. Other countries require
                                            primary dealers in an effort to improve         illiquid, hindering
domestic institutional investors to hold
                                            liquidity and transparency in the              transparency and
                                            government bond market. There are
large amounts of their portfolios in
                                            plans to expand this to other market            price formation. This
local assets, boosting demand. As an
example, new rules require insurance        participants and for other securities,          is reflected in low
and pension funds in Namibia to invest      including corporate bonds.
                                                                                           turnover figures for
a minimum of 45% of their assets in
domestic securities by October 2018.
                                            Nigeria has introduced online trading
                                            platforms that allow investors to
                                                                                            bonds and equities.
Improvements in capital market              execute trades on their own during             Ten countries have
development                                 trading hours. Direct market access,           total bond market
                                            whereby institutional investors can
Several countries are implementing          trade without passing their mandates
                                                                                           turnover of less than
policies to encourage capital market        through brokers, is another important          10%, and 15 countries
growth. Ghana, Kenya, South Africa
and the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs
                                            step. The introduction of electronic            have equity turnover
                                            initial public offerings and progress
Mobilières (the stock exchange for          towards derivatives trading will deepen         of less than 10%.’
eight West African countries) are           the Nigerian market over coming years.
lowering barriers to entry for small        Automated trading, which has already
firms to try to expand the pipeline
                                            been introduced in Uganda, Rwanda
of new listed companies. One way of
                                            and other countries, will also boost
achieving this is the introduction of
                                            activity.
an alternative market for small and
medium-sized enterprises, which             Regional integration
can act as an ‘incubator’ for these
                                            Many national exchanges in Africa
companies before they list on the main
                                            are small, illiquid and inefficient, and
board.
                                            local investor capacity is often limited.
Rwanda, Botswana and Ghana are              Therefore, fostering closer integration
among the countries introducing             between national exchanges, or
measures to bring companies into the        creating and strengthening regional
formal sector and to encourage them         ones, is an important area of focus.
to list on alternative exchanges. This
                                            Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and the
long-term approach requires providing
                                            regional BRVM are exploring closer
significant education and training to
                                            alignment between their exchanges
companies about financial markets and
                                            to allow brokers from each to trade
the benefits of listing. Education is one
of the principle areas of focus for all     directly on any of the other bourses.
countries in this index.                    This is being considered through
                                            the West African Capital Markets
Creating new products that are              Integration programme.
attractive to local and international
investors is another key focus.             A committee of stock exchanges
Ghana plans to introduce real estate        from the 16 countries that comprise
investment trusts on the exchange           the Southern African Development
by the end of 2018, according to the        Community is pursuing capacity-
country’s Securities and Exchange           building initiatives to stimulate
Commission. Sukuk bonds are being           cross-border trades. This includes
developed in Nigeria, the West African      harmonising listing requirements and
Economic and Monetary Union,                improving data dissemination to attract
Mauritius and Kenya, among others.          local and international investment. In
The BRVM is targeting 16 new sukuk          July 2018, finance ministers from SADC
listings by 2020 to raise finance across    countries approved the centralisation
a range of sectors including telecoms,      of secondary trading of government
finance, agribusiness, construction,        securities on their exchanges.

                                                                                        Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 15
Pillar 2:
Access to foreign exchange
                                                31.6295° N | 7.9811° W
16 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
On the path towards liberalisation
Economies are becoming more open as central banks take steps to liberalise exchange
rates and relax capital controls. Egypt and Nigeria show progress, but South Africa’s
experience highlights the need for active management of vulnerabilities resulting from
open markets.

Figure 2.1: Volatile capital flows cost South Africa top spot
Ranking of individual categories, max=100 (LHS); harmonised score, max=100 (RHS)

400                                                                                                                                                                                                                        100

350                                                                                                                                                                                                                        90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           80
300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           70
250                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60
200                                                                                                                                                                                                                        50

150                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30
100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20
 50                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10
  0                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                          Ethiopia
                                                            Seychelles
                                        Botswana

                                                                                                                                        Mauritius
                                                                         Namibia
        Kenya

                                                                                                                    Nigeria

                                                                                                                                                              Egypt
                                                                                                            Ghana
                               Uganda

                                                                                                                              Senegal

                                                                                                                                                    Morocco

                                                                                                                                                                      Tanzania

                                                                                                                                                                                 Rwanda
                South Africa

                                                   Zambia

                                                                                   Ivory Coast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Angola
                                                                                                 Cameroon

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mozambique

                    Official exchange rate reporting standard                                                                 Capital controls
                    Interbank foreign exchange turnover                                                                       Total portfolio investment flows to reserves
                    Pillar 2 overall score (RHS)

Sources: International Monetary Fund, national central banks, Absa, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual category totals (LHS)
provide rankings for the exchange rate reporting standard, capital controls, interbank foreign exchange turnover and
the total portfolio investment flows to reserves. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’
indicators and is used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p.38-39.
                                                                                                                                                              Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 17
Given their relatively restricted               Strategies for boosting interbank          to top the list with 44%, from around
sources of domestic capital, African            foreign exchange liquidity                 36% last year.
financial markets are highly reliant on
                                                South Africa’s experience highlights       Foreign reserves have been steady
foreign investment. This is especially
                                                the risks of open capital markets.         in most index economies since 2012,
pronounced against a background
                                                With the US Federal Reserve raising        with some exceptions. Oil-dependent
of improving growth in advanced
                                                interest rates, pressures on emerging      Nigeria and Angola have suffered from
economies and continuing challenges
                                                markets are high. Africa, home to many     weak commodity prices over the past
across emerging markets.
                                                commodity-exporting economies, is          few years, and have drawn on foreign
Pillar 2 measures some of the factors           especially exposed. Foreign exchange       reserves to defend their currencies.
that determine markets’ potential               liquidity as measured by the amount        Between 2012-17, Angola’s reserves
attractiveness to international                 of foreign exchange traded in the          fell by $14bn (45%), and Nigeria’s fell
investors. These range from the level           interbank market is low across the         by $7bn (15%). Conversely, Egypt,
of capital controls and exchange rate           continent, making this one of the key      Morocco and Mauritius have seen
reporting standards that define the             differentiating factors for variation in   strong growth in reserves.
ease with which investors can access            countries’ scores in this pillar.
them, to the level of foreign exchange                                                     The case of Egypt is the most
                                                The most active foreign exchange           impressive; reserves almost tripled
liquidity that affects investors’ ability
                                                market is in South Africa, with more       between 2012-17, growing by $22bn.
to deploy and repatriate capital.
                                                than $1.2tn annual turnover over           Its reserves have reached record levels
The need to manage volatility resulting         2017, according to central bank data.      in 2018, aided by a $4bn Eurobond
from openness is also addressed in the          Kenya comes second with around             sale in January that helped provide a
pillar, as measured by central banks’           $34bn and Ghana follows with               cash cushion and by setting up the
ability to meet demand for currency             $29bn, a significant increase from         ‘Egypt Fund’ in July to help manage the
by looking at the ratio of net portfolio        last year’s $18bn. Morocco, Nigeria        country’s sovereign wealth.
flows to reserves.                              and Uganda also have strong levels of
                                                turnover above $10bn. Beyond these         Towards a more open environment
Kenya earns the highest marks in
                                                countries, foreign exchange turnover is    Despite the short-term risks arising
this pillar, a significant improvement
                                                relatively low. Some states are taking     from open markets, underdeveloped
from ranking sixth last year. The
                                                steps to improve the environment           foreign exchange markets can be
relaxation of capital controls boosted
                                                for foreign exchange transactions.         sources of instability and obstacles
its performance, as did improvement
                                                In 2017, Mozambique introduced its         to long-term development. Investors
of the country’s net portfolio flows to
                                                financial sector development strategy,     who participated in OMFIF’s survey
reserves ratio. South Africa has fallen
                                                which approves the standards and           consider a gradual opening of capital
to second place this year. While South
                                                procedures for foreign exchange            markets underpinned by solid market
Africa is top in the interbank foreign
                                                transactions, and changes processes        infrastructure as an important step
exchange turnover, capital controls
                                                regarding their registration and           in strengthening Africa’s financial
and official exchange rate reporting
                                                authorisation.                             markets. The exchange rate regime
categories, it suffers from a fairly high
ratio of net portfolio flows to reserves.       The index rewards countries with           and degree of openness to the flow
Over 2017, it experienced portfolio             a high level of foreign exchange           of capital are crucial in shaping the
investment outflows of $16.4bn,                 liquidity. However, while this can         foreign investment environment.
against $50.5bn of reserves held by             be an important element of well-           Of the 20 index economies, five have
the South African Reserve Bank.                 functioning and resilient markets, it      a fixed regime, five an intermediate
                                                is also important that central banks       regime, and 10 have freely floating
South Africa has the highest daily
                                                observe prudent reserve management         currencies. Among those with fixed
foreign exchange turnover to annual
                                                strategies and can cope with sudden        regimes, Ivory Coast and Senegal
GDP ratio among emerging markets,
                                                capital outflows. In response to this      use the West African CFA franc, and
at 17.1%. This is significantly above
                                                need, index countries bolstered their      Cameroon uses the Central African CFA
average and around five times higher
                                                collective reserves to $233.4bn in
than that recorded in other Brics                                                          franc, both of which are pegged to the
                                                2017 from $192.6bn in 2012.
countries (Brazil, Russia, India and                                                       euro. The remaining two, Botswana’s
China). In the light of global trade            More than half the reserves were held      pula and the Namibian dollar, are fixed
tensions, a slowdown in China and               by three of the continent’s largest        to the South African rand as part of the
an unorthodox policy mix in the US,             economies: South Africa, Nigeria and       Common Monetary Area. Intermediate
being one of the most liquid emerging           Egypt. However, reserves as a share        regimes exhibit greater variation, from
markets has created vulnerabilities             of GDP are highest in Africa’s smaller     managed floats (Ethiopia), to floating
in South Africa, as was demonstrated            but more developed economies. Over         systems with bands (Morocco, Angola)
during this year’s emerging market              2017, this metric grew substantially in    to yet other arrangements closer to
sell-off.                                       Mauritius, which overtook Botswana         flexible rates (Egypt, Rwanda).

18 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
However, even those with floating           to repatriate profits. Capital inflows                                                                         Over the last year, Ivory Coast and
currencies do not always exhibit full       also grew, as evidenced by the demand                                                                          Ethiopia moved towards single
flexibility in movement of capital, and     for January 2018’s $4bn Eurobond sale,                                                                         exchange rates, boosting their score
many index countries display high           which was three times oversubscribed.                                                                          in this pillar. The presence of multiple
degrees of capital controls. These                                                                                                                         exchange rates (often a mix of official
                                            The Central Bank of Nigeria has taken
include Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia,                                                                                                                           and unofficial rates) can impede asset
                                            steps to improve liquidity and reduce
Morocco, Mozambique, Rwanda and                                                                                                                            valuations and exacerbate exchange
Tanzania. The degree of capital controls    vulnerabilities arising from the floating
                                                                                                                                                           rate risks. The quality and frequency
has a relatively high correlation with      of the naira. In April 2017 the CNB
                                                                                                                                                           of exchange rate reporting also plays
countries’ performance in the index.        introduced the ‘investor and exporter
                                                                                                                                                           an important role. Exchange rates are
                                            foreign exchange window’ to support
Exchange rate regimes and capital                                                                                                                          reported daily and in a timely manner
                                            exchange rate flexibility and the
controls in index countries have                                                                                                                           in most index countries, with some
                                            convergence of different exchange rate
remained broadly steady – such                                                                                                                             exceptions.
                                            levels on the parallel market. This is
systems change rarely. Still, there have    reported to have significantly boosted                                                                         Against the backdrop of improving
been some developments indicating a         portfolio inflows.                                                                                             financial market infrastructure to
move towards greater openness.                                                                                                                             facilitate foreign capital inflows,
                                            Nigeria’s economic structure,
The National Bank of Angola in January                                                                                                                     some countries are taking measures
                                            characterised by an external sector
2018 replaced its fixed exchange                                                                                                                           to attract investors. The Bourse
                                            dependent on basic commodities,
regime with a floating exchange                                                                                                                            Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières
                                            makes it an exceptional case. An
system with bands. Bank Al Maghrib,                                                                                                                        (the stock exchange for eight West
                                            exchange rate determined by market
Morocco’s central bank, also moved                                                                                                                         African countries) organised several
                                            forces could be highly volatile in this
towards a more flexible regime. In                                                                                                                         investment days with three roadshows
                                            structure, stressing the importance of
2017 the Central Bank of Nigeria                                                                                                                           in London, Johannesburg and New
                                            diversification policies to complement
decided to float the naira (though                                                                                                                         York over 2018. But, as analysis in
many restrictions still apply), while the   moves towards openness.
                                                                                                                                                           Pillars 3 and 4 shows, the presence of
Central Bank of Egypt did the same to       Gaps in exchange rate reporting are                                                                            a local investor base and a strong tax
the Egyptian pound in 2016. Kenya,          not unique to Nigeria. Ghana and                                                                               and regulatory regime are also crucial
the Seychelles and Zambia have all          Angola also suffer from dual and                                                                               to engendering confidence in foreign
taken steps to lower capital controls       multiple exchange rates, respectively.                                                                         investors to deploy their capital.
over the past year.
Greater flexibility has raised the
possibility of heightened vulnerability      Alternative option: Portfolio flows to reserves
and volatility. The more flexible the         Figure 2.2: Mauritius and Egypt most vulnerable to capital outflows
regime, the greater the impact of            Net  portfolio
                                              Net portfolio      investment
                                                            investment to reserves,to
                                                                                   % reserves, %
market forces in determining the
exchange rate. A move to a new regime          160
can also cause sharp corrections in
other economic indicators. In Egypt,           140
the liberalisation of the pound                120
resulted in a sharp depreciation that
led to soaring inflation, especially in        100
commodities. Some products recorded
                                                80
price rises of more than 50%.
Two years later, the situation is more          60
stable. While the pound has halved in           40
value since the float, its level has been
steady for around a year. Additionally,         20
the move towards a floating pound,                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0         0
                                                 0
together with the gradual lifting of
                                                                                                                                                  Zambia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ethiopia
                                                                                                          Uganda

                                                                                                                                                                      Rwanda
                                                                                                                                                                               Ivory Coast
                                                     Mauritius
                                                                 Egypt

                                                                                                Nigeria

                                                                                                                   Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                             Cameroon

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Angola
                                                                         Ghana

                                                                                                                                     Seychelles

                                                                                                                                                           Botswana

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Senegal
                                                                                 South Africa

                                                                                                                             Kenya

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Morocco

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tanzania
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mozambique

capital controls (which included the
lifting of caps on foreign exchange
transfers), has bolstered dollar trading
on the interbank market. This is a
significant improvement compared
with previous dollar shortages that          Source:        International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OM
                                              Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, national central banks, OMFIF analysis
created problems for investors wishing

                                                                                                                                                           Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 19
Pillar 3:
Market transparency, tax and
regulatory environment
                                                24°32’47° S | 15°19’47° E
20 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Reforms spur improvements in regulation and transparency
Several countries are creating a more transparent and well-regulated market,
supported by an improving tax environment. This is vital for attracting foreign
investment, encouraging domestic participation and aiding market development.

Figure 3.1: Nigeria boasts most favourable market environment
Ranking of individual categories, max = 800; harmonised score, max = 100 (RHS)

800                                                                                                                                                                                                                        100

700                                                                                                                                                                                                                        90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           80
600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           70
500                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60
400                                                                                                                                                                                                                        50

300                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30
200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20
100                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10
  0                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Seychelles
                                          Mauritius

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Ethiopia
                  South Africa

                                                                                                                                       Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                Egypt
        Nigeria

                                                      Botswana

                                                                                    Kenya
                                                                 Ghana

                                                                                                                              Uganda
                                                                                            Ivory Coast
                                                                         Tanzania

                                                                                                          Morocco

                                                                                                                    Senegal
                                 Rwanda

                                                                                                                                                 Zambia

                                                                                                                                                          Angola

                                                                                                                                                                                        Cameroon
                                                                                                                                                                   Mozambique

                      Financial stability regulation                                                                                   Reporting and accounting standards
                      Tax environment                                                                                                  Financial information availability
                      Market development                                                                                               Corporate action governance structure
                      Protection of minority of shareholders                                                                           Existence of credit rating
                      Pillar 3 Harmonised score (RHS)

Sources: Bank for International Settlements, International Financial Reporting Standards, Deloitte International Accounting
Standard plus, World Bank Ease of Doing Business, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, ABSA, OMFIF analysis. Note: Individual
category totals (LHS) provide rankings for financial stability regulation, tax environment, market development, minority
shareholder protection, reporting/accounting standards, financial information availability, corporate action governance
structure, existence of credit rating. The harmonised score (RHS) represents the average of all categories’ indicators, and is
used to compile the total scores for Pillars 1-6. More information on p38-39.
                                                                                                                                                          Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 21
Pillar 3 addresses improvements                        to the survey, said the regulatory         transactions lack a framework for
in Africa’s regulatory and tax                         environment is heading in the right        exemptions. This view was reiterated
environments, which play a critical role               direction, citing the use of simple        by respondents in the Ugandan
in developing an attractive domestic                   and relatively low tax rates applied to    securities market.
capital market. A handful of countries                 returns on some investments. They
                                                                                                  Corporate governance, protection
in Africa have focused on regulation                   also noted that government bonds
                                                                                                  of minority shareholders and quality
to bolster market development and                      for non-residents are not subject to
                                                                                                  financial reporting are prerequisites
attract foreign investors.                             income tax. However, a respondent
                                                                                                  for capital market development.
Nigeria and South Africa score highly                  from another Big Four firm highlighted
                                                                                                  To support price discovery, timely,
in this pillar. The former has made                    room for improvement, saying ‘the tax
                                                                                                  accurate and relevant data must be
changes to its tax system which,                       regime is good for multinationals, but
                                                                                                  available. International credit ratings
according to the central bank, will                    for smaller companies with second-tier
                                                                                                  also aid transparency.
‘broaden the tax base while improving                  audit firms there may be questions.
the efficiency of tax administration                   The tax system is reasonably               Rwanda fares well in terms of
and regulation’. A large securities                    sophisticated, but I believe it actually   transparency and regulatory
firm in Nigeria noted that ‘ongoing                    inhibits growth. It should encourage       strength, receiving the highest score
amendments are likely to improve the                   more foreign investment.’                  possible in the index for protection
system’. Capital market transactions                                                              of minority shareholders. However,
                                                       Uganda, which scores low on the            there are discrepancies between
are exempt from withholding taxes,                     tax indicator, has not undertaken
while there are more than 20 tax                                                                  the official rules and regulations on
                                                       significant reforms. Public sector         transparency and the reality of their
treaties and agreements on double                      respondents noted that the current
taxation with third countries.                                                                    implementation. The country also lacks
                                                       system’s structure discourages             any corporate credit ratings from the
Government bonds are subject to a tax
                                                       market growth and development.             main agencies, and scores relatively
holiday on income earned.
                                                       The withholding tax on government          low for tax environment. Mauritius
A senior figure in a Big Four                          securities is 20%, against a regional      has 27 corporate ratings but only one
accountancy firm in Ghana, responding                  average of 15%, and capital market         sovereign rating.
                                                                                                  Ensuring regulatory consistency
Figure 3.2: Only 10 index countries have corporate ratings
The number of corporates rated by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Unlisted countries scored zero.         In South Africa there is the perceived
                                                                                                  risk of ‘fragmentation’ of trading on
                       0                                                                          the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
Morocco           7                                                                               due to the introduction of four new
                        1                                  3
                                              Egypt                                               domestic exchanges since 2016. The
                                                        1 0                                       country is, however, in the closing
                                                                                                  stages of implementing a ‘twin peaks’
                                                                                                  regulatory framework to strengthen
                                                                                                  capital markets and aid their
                                      1                                                           development. This model separates
                                                                                                  regulatory functions between a
                  1             16 1 Nigeria
     Ghana            0                                                                           regulator that performs prudential
                 1                                                    4                           supervision and one that performs
                                                                            Kenya                 market conduct supervision.
                                                                 1     0
                           Angola                                                                 Instead of having a separate regulator
                               0 1                                                                for banks, South Africa’s new structure
                                 0                                                                creates two ‘peaks’, ‘prudential
                                                     1                                            regulation’ and ‘good conduct’. The
                            Namibia 1              0 0 Botswana                     Mauritius     legislation is bolstered by the launch of
                                                                                                  the Financial Sector Conduct Authority,
                                  5 0                                                       15    which has a broader scope than its
                                                                                                  precursor, the Financial Services Board.
                                                               10                     6
                                                                                            6     As one senior South African regulator
                     South Africa                33

22 | Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018                  14
said, ‘The financial sector will be made
safer through a tougher prudential
                                           Implementing international financial
                                           standards at too early a stage can
                                                                                           ‘Creating a
and market conduct framework. Many         hamper expansion by raising costs                supportive
of these standards are in line with        and complicating the transition.                 regulatory
international commitments agreed           Creating a supportive regulatory
via the G20 and other processes.’          environment requires sensitivity                 environment
Regulatory strength and consistency        and flexibility, enabling market                 requires sensitivity
are essential for creating confidence
and motivating new participants,
                                           growth by ensuring regulations are
                                           not excessively burdensome, while
                                                                                            and flexibility,
especially foreign investors, to enter     maintaining financial stability and best         enabling market
the market.                                practices. Countries do not always              growth by ensuring
                                           get the balance right, but those that
Financial reporting
                                           do adjust their policies accordingly             regulations are
Financial reporting levels vary across     tend to fare well. Nigeria, which has            not excessively
the continent, though there have been
widespread improvements over recent
                                           been criticised by survey respondents
                                           for heavy regulation, has made a
                                                                                            burdensome, while
years. International financial reporting   concerted effort to alleviate the                maintaining financial
standards are required for domestic        constraints on small and medium-sized            stability and best
public companies in 17 out of the 20       enterprise financing by expanding
countries in the index. Both Ivory Coast   the parameters for what constitutes              practices.’
and Mozambique have transitioned           collateral for credit, for example. It has
from ‘permitted but not required’ to       also improved its derivatives trading
‘required’ in the space of a year. Of      framework.
the three countries where IFRS are         Despite this need for flexibility, a
not required – Ethiopia, Egypt and         robust regulatory environment is vital
the Seychelles – only the latter two       to attracting foreign investors, a point
have generally accepted accounting         repeated by many survey respondents.
principles in place.                       International investors face higher
Technological limitations and issues       costs and greater uncertainty when
with human resources hamper                they have to follow different sets of
institutions’ ability to report in an      requirements across different markets.
effective and timely manner. As one        This can dissuade investors from
central bank official said, ‘Reporting     entering or increasing their presence
skills and tools are just evolving,        in these locations. Attracting foreign
data rendition processes are in some       investors is essential for facilitating
cases manual, and regulators are           growth, increasing access to credit and
overwhelmed by manpower limitations        supporting business in less developed
and oversight tools.’                      markets.

Nevertheless, financial stability          Investor diversification and the ability
regulations have improved significantly    to attract foreign capital are critical
in many jurisdictions. Last year           for providing a stable base for capital
only seven countries in the index          markets. The presence of foreign
were implementing the Basel III            investors can, in turn, help influence
international regulatory banking           policy-makers to undertake reforms.
framework. This year there are 12,         The need for participation of local
with Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia, Egypt        investors is equally important in
and Ghana joining the ranks of the         creating a larger and more liquid
highest scorers. Angola and Senegal,       market, and can provide stability
new additions to the index, have           during periods of international
implemented Basel II. Cameroon and         capital flight. Achieving this investor
Ethiopia achieve low scores, having        mix requires building an attractive
only implemented Basel I.                  regulatory and tax environment.

                                                                                        Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018 | 23
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