Aerospace 2020 AGARD ADVISORY REPORT 360 - NATO STO
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AGARD-AR-360 Vol. III
AOVISORY GROUP FOR AEROSPACE RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
7 RUE ANCELLE, 92200 NEUILLY-SUR-SEINE, FRANCE
AGARD ADVISORY REPORT 360
Aerospace 2020
(Akonautique et espace ti l’horizon 2020)
Volume III - Background Papers
_ North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Organisation du Trait& de I’Atlantique AfordThe Mission of AGARD
According to its Charter, the mission of AGARD is to bring together the leading personalities of the NATO nations in the
fields of science and technology relating to aerospacefor the following purposes:
- Recommending effective ways for the member nations to use their research and development capabilities for the
common benefit of the NATO community;
- Providing scientific and technical advice and assistanceto the Military Committee in the field of aerospaceresearch
and development (with particular regard to its military application);
- Continuously stimulating advancesin the aerospacesciencesrelevant to strengtheningthe common defenceposture;
- Improving the co-operation among member nations in aerospaceresearchand development;
- Exchange of scientific and technical information;
- Providing assistanceto member nations for the purpose of increasing their scientific and technical potential;
- Rendering scientific and technical assistance, as requested, to other NATO bodies and to member nations in
connection with research and development problems in the aerospacefield.
The highest authority within AGARD is the National Delegates Board consisting of officially appointed senior
representativesfrom each member nation. The mission of AGARD is carried out through the Panelswhich are composedof
experts appointed by the National Delegates, the Consultant and Exchange Programme and the Aerospace Applications
Studies Programme.The results of AGARD work are reported to the member nations and the NATO Authorities through the
AGARD series of publications of which this is one.
Participation in AGARD activities is by invitation only and is normally limited to citizens of the NATO nations.
The content of this publication has been reproduced
directly from material supplied by AGARD or the authors.
Published September 1997
Copyright 0 AGARD 1997
All Rights Reserved
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ALLEMAGNE ISLANDE
Fachinformationszentrum Karlsruhe Dire&t of Aviation
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BELGIQUE Reykjavik
Coordonnateur AGARD-VSL ITALIE
Etat-major de la Force akrienne Aeronautica Militare
Qunrtier Reine Elisabeth Ufficio del Delegate Nazionale all’ AGARD
Rue d’Evere. 1 140 Bruxelles Aeroootto Pratica di Mare
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Directeur - Gestion de l‘information LUXEMBOURG
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Ministtre de la Dkfense nationale NORVEGE
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Danish Defence Research Establishment P.O. Box 25
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DK-2 IO0 Copenhagen 0 Netherlands Delegation to AGARD
ESPAGNE National Aerospace Laboratory NLR
INTA (ACARD Publications) P.O. Box 90502
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ETATS-UNIS Estado Maior da Forqa Aerea
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ISBN 92-836- 1059-8REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
1. Recipient’s Reference 2. Originator’s Reference 3. Further Reference 4. Security Classification
of Document
AGARD-AR-360 ISBN 92-836- 1059-8 UNCLASSIFIED/
Volume III UNLIMITED
5. Originator Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
7 rue Ancelle, 92200 Neuilly-sur-Seine, France
6. Titie
Aerospace 2020 Vol. III
7. Presented at/sponsoredby
8. Author(s)/Editor(s) 9. Date
Multiple September 1997
10. Author’sEditor’s Address 11. Pages
Multiple 148
12. Distribution Statement There are no restrictions on the distribution of this document.
Information about the availability of this and other AGARD
unclassified publications is given on the back cover.
13. Keywords/Descriptors
Aerospace engineering Weapon systems
Forecasting Directed energy weapons
Arms proliferation Remotely piloted vehicles
Nuclear proliferation UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle)
Synthetic environments Tactical aircraft
Miniaturization Tactical warfare
Man machine systems Hypersonic vehicles
Human Factors engineering Air-breathing missiles
Man computer interface Launchers
Situational awareness Fighter aircraft
Data fusion Threat evaluation
Communications networks Laser weapons
Decision making Defense economics
Information systems
14. Abstract
Volume III, the technicalpaperssupportingthe report of the NATO Advisory Group for Aerospace
Researchand Development(AGARD) study: ‘Aerospace 2020’. This study explored the most advanced
technologies, relevant to aerospace, being researched and developed in laboratories today. The study
focused on the most promising current technologies and the organisational and tactical consequences they
will have at the field and system levels, over the course of the next 25 years.
Topics include: a discussion of the impact of proliferation, human-machine interaction, synthetic
environments, directed-energy weapons, information technologies, unmanned tactical aircraft, suborbital
launchers, hypersonic missiles, and a discussion of affordability issues.
Technologies are assessed from the viewpoints of both potential capabilities and threats. Observations and
recommendations are presented.
Volume II contains the conclusions of the report. Volume I is a short summary of these conclusions.Foreword
Change is affecting every aspect of our hves, and the pace of change is accelerating. In an effort to forecast where the forces of
change will lead NATO and its member Nations over the next quarter century, fhe NATO Advisory Group for Aerospace Research
and Development (AGARD) commissioned the Aerospace 2020 study.
The study attempts to strike a balance between possibility and promise. Some discussions are undoubtedly too conservative while
others too optimistic. In any case, Aerospace 2020 attempts to identify methods and processess that will help the Alliance and the
Nations benefit from the opportunities, and prepare for the possible dangers, which change inevitably creates,
The study involved virtually ail of the AGARD organisation, capatalising, in particular, on the strengths of its seven Technical
Panels composed of experts in fields ranging from aerospace medicine to fluid dynamics. The study also tapped the military
expertise of representatives from AGARD’s Aerospace Applications Studies Committee and the information management skills of
the Technical Information Committee. Consistent with the nature and philosophy of AGARD, each of these participants expanded
the network of professionals to include views and opinions of civilian and military experts from industry, government and academia.
We wish to take this opportunity to thank all of the people who contributed to the Aerospnce 2020 study and assisted in its
preparation and production. Special thanks are extended to Dr. Hywel Davies, rapporteur; to Lt. Col. John Wheatley, study
executive; and to Jiirgen Witd, Director of AGARD, and his staff.
As AGARD evolves into NATO’s new Research and Technology Organisation, it will retain its spirit of service to the Alliance, of
international cooperation and of dedicated professionalism. It is in keeping with this spirit that Aeruspace 2020 is presented, and we
hope the study will prove valuable to NATO and its members as plans, preparations, and decisions are made for our entry into the
21st century.
Avant-propos
Le changement a des rkpercussions sur tous les aspects de notre vie, et son rythme s’acc6ltre. Afin de prCvoir jusqu’oir I’OTAN et
ses pays membres seront conduits par les forces du changement au tours des prochaines vingt cinq am&es, le Groupe consultatif
pour la recherche et les rkalisations akrospatiales de I’OTAN (AGARD) a Kurd l’itude “Akronautique et espace a I’horizon 2020”.
L’6tude tente de trouver un juste equilibre entre les possibilitks et les potentialit&. Certains des debats qu’elle contient sot& saris
doute, soit trap conservateurs, soit trap optimistes. Quoiqu’il en soit, “Aeronautique et espace & I’horizon 2020” tente d’identifier les
mkthodes et les processus qui permettront 51I’Alliance et aux Nations de profiter des possibilitis offertes et de se primunir centre les
dangers potentiels qui sont la cons6quence in6vitable de tout changement.
L’&ude a b&f36 de la participation de la quasi-totalit de la structure AGARD, tout en tirant parti des connaissances de ses
propres Panels techniques, compos& d’experts dans tous les domaines atronautiques, allant de la midecine aerospatiale & la
dynamique des fluides. L’6tude a egalement fait appel aux compCtencestechniques militaires des membres du Cornit des etudes en
vue d’applications a&rospatiales de I’AGARD, ainsi que le savoir faire en gestion de I’information de son Cot-nit6 d’information
technique. Conformbment & la nature et ?I la philosophie de I’AGARD, chacun des participants a cherchC %Clargir son r&eau de
professionnels pour y inclure les avis et les opinions d’experts civils et militaires travaillam dans I’industrie, dans I’administration et
aux universitks.
Nous saisissons cette occasion pour remercier tous ceux qui ont contribud h la rkalisation de I’&ude “A&onautique et espace a
I’horizon 2020”. En particulier, nous tenons & exprimer nos plus vifs remerciements au Docteur Hywel Davies, rapporteur; au Lt.
COI. John Wheatley, administrateur responsable de I’&ude; et b JIirgen Wild, le Directeur de I’AGARD, et son personnel.
En evoluant vers la nouveIle Organisation OTAN de Recherche et Technologie, I’AGARD continuera & apponer ?I I’Alliance sa
volont6 de servir, son esprit de coop&ration intemationale et sa vocation professionnelle. C’est dam cet esprit que l’ttude
“Atronautique et espace g l’horizon 2020” est presentke. Nous espdrons qu’elle s’averera utile pour I’OTAN et ses pays membres,
pour les plans, les preparatifs et les decisions prises en vue de notre entrbe dans le 2litme si&cle.
Michael I. Yarymovych Nils Holme
Chairman of AGARD Study Director
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