Il Mercato della Power Generation - animp
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Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Il Mercato della Power Generation
Carlo Luzzatto
Condirettore Generale
Ansaldo Energia
Sezione Componentistica d’Impianto ANIMP XI Convegno, Villa Torretta, 5 novembre 2009
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Contents
"The Value Chain
!
#"Market Forecasts
$"Projects and Players
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
"The Value Chain
!
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
The Value Chain (I)
Power Plant
Equipment
Power Plant Engineering, Service and
Manufacturing and
Development Procurement and Maintenance
Supply
Construction
% Plant configuration and % Engineering, Procurement % Gas Turbine for open and % Spare Parts, Upgrading and
basic design and Construction of combined cycles ranging Repowering Solutions, Long
% Environmental Impact complete power plants from 70MW up to 285 MW Term Service Agreements,
Assessment providing the customers with % Steam Turbines ranging Training, Field Service,
% Permitting turn-key or customary from 50MW up to 1000MW Repairs, Remote Monitoring
solutions & Diagnostics
% Generators for steam, gas
% Management of the and hydro turbines % LTSA on AEN and third
complete supply chain parties installed fleet
% Execution of all site works,
assembly of components,
managing the installation
and commissioning. Margins
Equipment Service
EPC
Cash
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
The Value Chain (II)
EPC Equipment Manufacturer
and/or Equipment Manufacturer
Open Cycle Combined Cycle Thermal Power Plant
Steam Turbines Steam Turbines
Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines Boiler
Generator
HRSG Generator
I&C
Generator
I&C
BOP & Aux
I&C
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
BOP & Aux
Civil Works
Transportation
Civil Works
Engineering Transportation
Transportation
Engineering
Engineering
AEN Supply Third Party Supply Partly AEN Supply
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
#"Market Forecasts
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Technologies (I)
(M!) • 2008 was a record year
in terms of orders for
450000 most of the power
generation technologies,
400000 especially Hydro,
Nuclear and Wind, while
350000
Gas and Steam almost
repeated the outstanding
300000
2007 performance
250000
• In the medium term the
200000
slight reduction of
investments in Hydro
150000 and Steam will be
counterbalanced by
100000 increasing investments
in other high CapEx
50000 technologies like Solar
and Distributed
0 Generation
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GAS* STEAM NUCLEAR HYDRO WIND SOLAR Other REN&DG
Source: AEN internal elaboration; * includes GT-based plants (i.e. Combined and Open Cycles)
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Total Orders by Region (I)
(M!)
• Power generation market
in the last 2 years was
450000
dominated by new
Steam Coal plants in
400000
China and India (> 380
B! in new orders)
• EU and Middle East
350000
orders > 65 B!/yr in ’07-
’08, driven by Gas Plants
300000
• In the medium term a
strong comeback of
250000
North America is
expected due to the
200000 massive replacements of
aging plants, along with
150000 current restructuring plan
in Russia and Eastern
100000 Europe
• Investments reduction in
50000 China and India should
be counterbalanced by
0 increasing expenditures
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 in other Emerging
Economies in South-
EU AFRICA MIDDLE EAST Rest Of EUROPE/CIS East Asia, Africa and
RUSSIA LATIN AMERICA OCEANIA ASIA Latin America
INDIA CHINA NORTH AMERICA
Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Power Generation Capacity Renewables & Distr. Gen. Orders by Technology
(MW) • Booming Renewables &
Distributed Generation
80000 Market, mostly driven by
Wind installations in EU,
70000 North Am., China and India
• Considerable orders for Solar
PV have started in 2006 due
60000 to incentives in many EU
countries but, as price of this
technology is quickly
50000 decreasing, in the next ten
years Solar PV orders could
40000
reach volumes close to those
for Wind power.
• Concentrated Solar Power
30000 (CSP) and Biomass & Waste
to Energy markets are also
estimated to show large
20000 growth rates in the close
future
• More mature technologies
10000
like Gensets, Mini Hydro and
Geothermal should keep
0 their historical market levels
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 while innovative technologies
like Fuel Cells are not
forecast to provide
BIOMASS/WTE FUEL CELLS GENSET GEOTHERMAL substantial contributions at
MINI HYDRO SOLAR CSP SOLAR PV WIND
least over the projected
period
Source: AEN internal elaboration
Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Impact of the Crisis
Before the
financial
crisis… Rate of investment in PG New Players
increase significantly
What’s
happening Consolidation,
now… Global power orders to
Europe Capex Cuts by Utilities,
fall by up to 50% in 2009 Limited access to funding
Gas Turbine Market (50 and 60
Hz)
1st Half ’08 1st Half ’09
34 16
-53%
GW GW
Gas Turbines for Power Generation
Application above 50 MWPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Shaping of the European MarketPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
$"Projects and PlayersPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Turnkey Attitude - Global Fossil Market*
16%
30000
47% OEM to utilities
25000 OEM to EPC
37% OEM EPC TK
20000
OEM EPC TK OEM to EPC OEM to utilities
15000
Steam 24.5 GW 10000
5000
Open Cycles 27.5 GW
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
Combined Cycles
0
Open Cycles
Open Cycles
Open Cycles
Open Cycles
Open Cycles
Open Cycles
Steam
Steam
Steam
Steam
Steam
Steam
Combined Cycles 68 GW
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
(*)
120 GW
• New Fossil Power Plants/Equipment Commissioned and AFRICA ASIA/FAR EAST CIS EUROPE ITALY LATIN MIDDLE EAST
Under Construction in 2005-2009 featuring GTs above AMERICA
50MW and STs above 100MW
• 50 Hz Global market (excluding China and India)
Source: AEN internal elaborationPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Main EPC Players
EU27+Turkey
A-Tec Power Plant Systems (AT),
Russia
MetKa (GR), Russian EPC (EMK Engineering Co. Ltd.,
Tecnicas Reunidas, Iberinco (ES) Technopromexport, Atomstroyexport,
Gama Power Systems Eng , Enka (TR) E4, Energokaskad, Stroytransgaz)
Fluor (US)
Italy Far East and Iran
FWI Chinese EPC (Shanghay Electric, Harbin
Techint
C
Power Equipment, DongFang Electric
P
Tecnimont
E
Company, China National Machinery &
in g
Fata Equipment Import & Export Corporation
p l a y artners) (CMEC), SEPCO III) and Korean EPC (
’s OP P
POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan)
O E M with B
M a jo r ortiu
m
+ ten in Cons
(of
Middle East
Americas (only 50 Hz market) Chinese EPC (Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang,
POSCO (KR), Hitachi (JP), Shanghay Electric, Harbin Power Equipment),
Iberinco, ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
Africa Korean EPC ( POSCO, Hyundai, Samsung, Doosan, Hanwa),
Tecnimont (IT), Saipem (IT), Metka (GR)
Harbin Power Equipment , Dongfang (CN),
Fluor, Foster Wheeler , Black&Veatch (US)
SNC Lavalin (CA), Marubeni (JP),
ACS Cobra, Initec (ES),
Saipem (IT), Foster Wheeler (US)Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Market Opportunities for EPC Projects (Gas Fired only)
75 Orders 2010-2014 26
70 GW 25,2 24
Open Cycles - 300MW Block Equivalent
• Combined and 65
Combined Cycles - 400MW Block Equivalent 22
60
Open Cycles 55 34
20
18
Projects Only 50 15,5
14,1 16
45
40 14
5
• Projects on 35
9,1 10,4
11,5
12
14 9,4
30
Turnkey EPC 4 10
25
3 10 8
basis Only 20
15
4,1 38
35 6
15 2,8
25 26
4
10 21
5 2,1 18
• 50Hz Countries 5 11
2
2 2
6 6 4
Only 0
AFRICA ASIA CHINA EU INDIA LATIN MIDDLE OCEANI Rest Of RUSSIA
0
AMERIC EAST A Europe
A & CIS
Source: AEN internal elaboration
• Gas TurbinesPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Sample of Projects 2009-2012
EU27+Turkey
2009 orders Russia
-Belgium, Tessenderlo (400MW CC), T-Power 30%Siemens), TK Siemens 2009 orders
-UK, Pembroke (2000MW CC), RWE N-Power, TK Alstom -Adler (420MW CC), Gazenergoprom, TK Tek Mosenergo
-Netherlands, Enecogen Rotterdam (800MW CC), Enecogen-Dong, TK -Yuzhnouralsk (400MW CC), OGK3, TK Atomstroyexport
Siemens 2010-12
2010-12 -Astrakhan (420 MW CC), Gazprom, TK
-France, Fos Sur Mer (420MW CC), Electrabel, TK -Dzhubingskaia (210 MW CC), Gazprom/Gazenergoprom, TK
-Greece, Florina2 (330MW ST), PPC, TK
-Poland, Opole (2x470MW ST), BOT Electr., TK
-Poland, Siekierki (400MW ST), Vattenfall, TK
Italy Far East and Iran
2009 orders 2009 orders
-Aprilia (800MW CC), Sorgenia, TK Ansaldo Energia -Bangladesh, Sylhet (150MW OC), Bangladesh Power Develp Board,
-Torino Nord (400MW CC), Iride Energia, Package Bid TK Shanghay Electric
2010-12 2010-2012
- Ciclo Combinato 800MW, TK -Bangladesh, Siddhirganji (300MW OC), Electricity Generation Comp
- Ciclo Combinato 400 MW, TK any of Bangladesh, TK
- Ciclo USC Vapore 3x660 MW, TK -Iran, (800MW CC), Kave Khuzestan Aluminum Co, TK
-- ……
-- ……
Middle East
2009 orders
-UAE , Shuweithat (1500MW CC), GDF, TK Marubeni
-Syria, Deir-Ali 2 (800MW CC) , PEEGT, TK Metka
2010-12
-UAE , Hassyan I, II, III (3x1500MW CC), DEWA, TK
Africa -Kuwait, Az Zour North I (1500MW CC), MEW, TK
Americas (only 50 Hz market)
2010-12
2009 orders
-Algeria, Sousse (400MW CC), STEG, IPP Peaking Plant
-Chile, Puerto Coronel 1(370MW ST), Colbun SA, TK
-Algeria, Ras Djanet (2x400MW CC), Sonelgas, TK
Tecnimont
-South Africa (4x150MW OC), GdF Suez, IPP Peaking Plant
2010-12
-Chile, Punta Alcade (2x375MW ST), Endesa Chile, TK??Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Equipment vs. Turn-Key Approach to Projects
Source: Frost & SullivanPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
AEN Profile
(Back-Up)Previsioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Company Profile
Ansaldo Energia, a Finmeccanica company, is a distinguished player in the energy
industry, providing reliable and flexible solutions across a complete and innovative
product portfolio
New Units Service Nuclear
EPC Equipment
’08 Orders: 1.371M! ’08 Orders: 640M! ’08Orders: 41M!
’08 Revenues: 987M! ’08 Revenues: 315M! ’08 Revenues: 31M!
• A worldwide recognized brand in Power Generation with an installed capacity of more than
170,000 MW over 1,700 projects completed, in over 90 countries
• Headquartered in Genoa (Italy) with major regional offices in USA, Africa, Gulf, India and
about 3,000 employeesPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
Product Portfolio energia convenzionale e alternativa
MAIN COMPONENTS (OEM) POWER PLANTS SERVICE OEM &
Gas Turbines
Steam Turbines
GeneratorsPrevisioni di Mercato Oil&Gas - Raffinazione,
Chimico e Petrolchimico, Offshore,
energia convenzionale e alternativa
Installed power worldwide: 176,457 MW (As of Dec. 08)
Thermoelectric Hydroelectric
Power Plants 99,372 MW Power Plants
130,709 MW 45,748 MW
33,882 MW
31,778 MW
11,425 MW
Steam Turbines Gas Turbines Turbogenerators Hydrogenerators
89,035 MW 25,964 MW 106,000 MVA 26,506 MVAYou can also read
