ANTICIPATED VACCINE ADOPTION & IMPACT ON THE CPG INDUSTRY - IRI
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Part December
COVID-19 Emerging Point of View 10
2020
ANTICIPATED VACCINE
ADOPTION & IMPACT
ON THE CPG INDUSTRY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
COVID-19 vaccinations have
begun in the United Kingdom and
Canada, and the U.S. Food and
Drug Administration will likely
authorize vaccines in December.
2021 will be a ramp-up year, with KEY FINDINGS VACCINE ADOPTION IMPLICATIONS
the U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services reporting that Overall interest in getting a vaccine Consumer acceptance of vaccines, as well as the potential
most people will be vaccinated is mixed. As of mid-November, more for additional federal stimulus, will impact social mobility
by Spring. In this report, based on than half the population remains and economic recovery, respectively, and could affect
an IRI proprietary survey unsure or not interested in a vaccine. industry growth.
conducted in mid-November, we
report on the likely adoption rates Males, older consumers, high income Mixed consumer sentiment toward vaccines provides retailers
and potential opportunities for and urban consumers are far more with opportunities to incentivize consumer adoption of
retailers and manufacturers. interested in getting the vaccine as vaccines, driving store traffic and ultimately growing loyalty
soon as it is available. with new and existing shoppers.
We anticipate that a significant
portion of the population will get
Females, Blacks, Hispanics, lower Two-dose vaccines mean retailers have two additional
income and rural consumers are less opportunities to connect with shoppers. Brands can
vaccinated by mid- to late 2021.
likely to get a vaccine immediately. incentivize shoppers with rewards of coupons or other
Based on this, IRI forecasts
industry sales growth in our Adoption of the vaccine is likely to be offers when they get a vaccine.
Harness Growth in 2021 report slow with the current level of Given the demographic skews of early adopters, retailers and
(value sales growth of -2.5% to skepticism, but we anticipate a manufacturers have an opportunity to offer products,
-5% for food and beverages and significant portion of consumers promotions and messages tailored to them and evolve the
-1% to -2% for total nonedible will be vaccinated mid-year to the offers as adoption increases (e.g., initially, older males in
vs. year ago). end of 2021. metro areas).
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Despite Rising Cases of COVID-19, More than Half the
Population Remains Unsure or Not Interested in a Vaccine
9.3%
Do you plan to get a COVID-19
vaccine once it is available?
17.9% 24.2%
Yes, but I will likely wait at
least 6 months after it is
available to me before I get it
Yes, but I will likely wait a Not planning to get it
few months after it is
available to me before I get it
20.5% 28.1%
Yes, I plan to get it as soon Not sure yet
as it is available to me
Source: IRI Survey fielded 11/13-15 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; base 99, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
Males Are Far More Interested Than Females in
Getting the Vaccine as Soon as It Is Available
TOTAL
base = 991 base = 689 base = 299 More than
50%
YES, I plan to get it as soon
as it is available to me 20.5% 14.3% 35.0%
YES, but will likely wait a few months
after it is available to me before I get it 17.9% 17.2% 19.7%
YES, but will likely wait at least 6 mos.
9.3% 10.5% 6.3%
of female
after it is available to me before I get it
NO 24.2% 28.2% 14.6% respondents
NOT SURE YET 28.1% 29.8% 24.4% report they are
not interested
or are unsure
about a
COVID-19
vaccine.
Source: IRI Survey fielded 11/13-15 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; base 991, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Non-White, Non-Hispanic Americans Have Been
Disproportionately Negatively Impacted by COVID-19 Incidence
American Black or Race and ethnicity
Rate Ratios Indian or African
Compared to Alaska Native, Asian, Non- American, are risk markers for
White, Non- Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic or other underlying
Hispanic Persons Persons Persons Persons Latino Persons
conditions that affect
Cases 1.8x 0.6x 1.4x 1.7x
1 health, including
Hospitalization 4.0x 1.2x 3.7x 4.1x
2
socioeconomic status,
Death 2.6x 1.1x 2.8x 2.8x
access to health care,
and exposure to the
virus related to
occupation, e.g.,
frontline, essential,
and critical
infrastructure workers.
Source: CDC, 11-30-20 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html / 1: CDC / 2: NCHS, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Blacks Are Least Likely to Get a Vaccine as Soon as
Possible, With Hispanics Showing Similar Reluctance
Nearly two-thirds of Blacks and 58% of Hispanics
indicate they will not or are unsure they’ll get a vaccine.
Kaiser Family
Foundation
research finds
that BLACKS, HISPANIC NON- CAUCASIAN AFRICAN ASIAN OTHER
HISPANIC AMERICAN
due to unfair base = 140 base = 851 base = 719 base = 126 base = 56 base = 89
treatment in the YES, I plan to get it as
soon as it is available 12.5% 21.8% 22.4% 10.2% 21.4% 19.6%
past year, HAVE YES, but will likely wait a
few months after available 21.3% 17.4% 19.5% 13.8% 16.5% 12.4%
LESS TRUST IN
YES, but will likely wait at
THE HEALTH least 6 months after available 8.3% 9.5% 9.3% 11.5% 9.3% 6.9%
CARE SYSTEM NO 30.7% 23.1% 22.7% 32.8% 16.4% 28.8%
than whites. NOT SURE YET 27.2% 28.2% 26.2% 31.8% 36.4% 32.2%
Source: IRI Survey 11/13-15 NCP of Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; base 991; https://theundefeated.com/features/new-poll-shows-black-
americans-put-far-less-trust-in-doctors-and-hospitals-than-white-people/, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
Older Consumers, Among the Most Vulnerable for
Contracting COVID-19, Are Ready for Vaccine 60%
of Older
Gen Z or
Younger Older Younger Older Retirees &
Millennial Millennial Gen X Boomers Boomers Seniors Millennials are
(18-29) (30-38) (39-54) (55-63) (64-73) (74+)
base = 60 base = 175 base = 293 base = 180 base = 203 base = 81 not interested
YES, I plan to get it
as soon as it is 17.8% 14.6% 15.9% 21.1% 26.7% 35.3%
available to me or not sure,
YES, but will likely
wait a few months while nearly
19.1% 13.2% 17.0% 17.7% 21.9% 21.1%
2/3
after it is available to
me before I get it
YES, but will likely
wait at least 6 mos.
10.3% 12.5% 10.9% 5.8% 7.8% 8.0%
after it is available to of Retirees /
me before I get it
NO 28.4% 32.3% 29.0% 19.0% 18.0% 12.7% Seniors will
NOT SURE YET 24.4% 27.4% 27.2% 36.3% 25.6% 23.0%
get a vaccine.
Source: IRI Survey fielded 11/13-15 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; base 991, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Income Is an Indicator of Interest in Vaccine, with Lower Income Least
Likely to Seek the Vaccine and Upper Income Most Likely to Get a Vaccine
Two-Thirds of Lower Income Respondents Are Unsure or Will Not Get a Vaccine vs. 40% of Upper Income
TOTAL LOWER INCOME MIDDLE INCOME UPPER INCOME
base = 991 base = 274 base = 366 base = 351
YES, I plan to get it as soon
as it is available to me 20.5% 15.5% 19.1% 25.9%
YES, but will likely wait a few months
after it is available to me before I get it 17.9% 10.3% 17.3% 24.6%
YES, but will likely wait at least 6 mos.
after it is available to me before I get it 9.3% 8.2% 9.7% 9.8%
NO 24.2% 29.2% 26.2% 18.2%
NOT SURE YET 28.1% 36.8% 27.8% 21.5%
Source: IRI Survey fielded 11/13-15 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; base 991, weighted to reflect U.S. population, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
Rural Consumers Are the Least Interested in a Vaccine
Densely
Populated Medium- Small Rural
Cities Sized Cities Cities Populations
base = 410 base = 321 base = 146 base = 114
YES, I plan to get it as soon 20.6% 21.7% 22.4% 14.4%
as it is available to me
YES, but will likely wait a few
months after it is available to 21.5% 16.6% 16.9% 10.4%
me before I get it
YES, but will likely wait at
least 6 mos. after it is 9.1% 11.2% 8.1% 6.6%
available to me before I get it
NO 25.1% 20.9% 23.2% 31.2%
NOT SURE YET 23.7% 29.6% 29.5% 37.5%
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Public Support of
Vaccines is
Critical; 70% of the
Population Needs
“
Either Viral
Immunity or a
Vaccine to Break
Public health agencies
the Pandemic,
should consider taking
Health Experts vaccinations out of
”
Report medical settings and
into places where
people work
or shop.
– Attributed to Monica Schoch-Spana,
Medical Anthropologist at Johns Hopkins University*
*https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/just-50-americans-plan-get-covid-19-vaccine-here-s-how-win-over-rest / weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10Retailers and CPG
Manufacturer Messaging
Opportunity, Support
“Vaccinate with
Confidence”
Operation Warp Speed is a partnership among
HHS, CDC, National Institutes of Health and
others, along with private firms, including
pharmaceutical companies, to coordinate
While there is no efforts for producing and distributing 300
current national campaign million free or low-cost vaccines.
to promote a COVID-19
vaccine, the CDC is leveraging its
Vaccinate with Confidence program.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Announces Agreements
With Drug and Grocery Channel Chains to Distribute COVID-19 Vaccines*
• Albertsons Companies, Inc. (incl. Osco, Jewel- • Rite Aid Corp.
Osco, Albertsons, Albertsons Market, Safeway, • The Kroger Co. (including Kroger, Harris
Tom Thumb, Star Market, Shaw’s, Haggen, Acme, Teeter, Fred Meyer, Frys, Ralphs, King
Randalls, Carrs, Market Street, United, Vons, Soopers, Smith’s, City Market, Dillons,
Pavilions, Amigos, Lucky’s, Pak ‘N Save, Sav-On) Mariano’s, Pick ‘n Save, Copps, Metro
• Costco Wholesale Corp. Market)
• CPESN USA, LLC • Topco Associates, LLC (including Big-Y
• CVS Pharmacy, Inc. (including Long’s) Pharmacy and Wellness Center, Brookshire’s
Pharmacy, Super One Pharmacy, FRESH by
• Good Neighbor Pharmacy and AmerisourceBergen
Brookshire’s Pharmacy, Coborn’s Pharmacy,
Drug Corporation’s PSAO, Elevate Provider Cash Wise Pharmacy, MarketPlace Pharmacy
• Health Mart Systems, Inc.
• Topco continued: Hartig Drug Company, King
• H-E-B, LP Kullen, Food City Pharmacy, Ingles
• Hy-Vee, Inc. Pharmacy, Raley’s, Bel Air, Nob Hill
• LeaderNET and Medicine Shoppe, Cardinal Pharmacies, Save Mart Pharmacies, Lucky
Health’s PSAOs Pharmacies, SpartanNash, Price Chopper,
Market 32, Tops Friendly Markets, ShopRite,
• Managed Health Care Associates (MHA) Wegmans, Weis Markets, Acme Fresh
• Meijer, Inc. Markets)
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. • Walgreens (including Duane Reade)
• Retail Business Services, LLC (including Food Lion, • Walmart, Inc. (including Sam’s Club)
Giant Food, The Giant Company, Hannaford Bros • Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. (including Winn-Dixie,
Co, Stop & Shop) Harveys, Fresco Y Mas)
Source: https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/11/12/trump-administration-partners-chain-independent-community-pharmacies-increase-access-future-covid-19-vaccines.html *as of 11-6-20 / weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12Those Who Have Received a Flu Vaccine Vaccinations Are
Are More Open to COVID-19 Vaccine Not Viewed Equally
Have Had or Planning to
Get Flu Shot This Year
base = 624
Not Planning to Get
Flu Shot This Year
base = 287
Unsure About Getting
Flu Shot This Year
base = 47
Just 35%
YES, I plan to get the COVID-19
29.6% 3.8% 9.8% of flu vaccine
vaccine as soon as it is available
YES, but will likely wait a few participants are
months after the COVID-19 24.6% 5.7% 10.7%
vaccine is available before I get it
either unsure or not
YES, but will likely wait at least 6
mos. after the COVID-19 vaccine 10.6% 7.4% 6.8%
is available to me before I get it planning to get the
NO 9.3% 59.0% 14.1%
NOT SURE YET 25.9% 24.1% 58.5%
COVID-19 vaccine,
compared to more
than 80%
of those who will
not get a flu
vaccine this year.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13As Projected in IRI’s Harness Growth in 2021 Report, Social Mobility Is
Key to Assessing 2021 Demand and Will Depend on Vaccine Adoption
Mobility Trends for COVID-19 / Vaccine Scenarios
Mobility levels are linked to
10 COVID-19 vaccine availability,
and consumers’ willingness to
ACTUAL FORECAST
0 restore normal work and
shopping patterns.
-10
• “New Normal” is anticipated
-20 about six months after
vaccine is widely available –
-30
based on accessibility and
June 2021 Vaccine distribution.
-40
Dec 2021 Vaccine
• “New Normal” assumes a
-50 ~5% loss to pre-COVID-19
mobility levels because of
-60 newly formed habits that will
3/8/2020
10/8/2020
11/8/2020
12/8/2020
4/8/2021
10/8/2021
11/8/2021
12/8/2021
4/8/2020
5/8/2020
6/8/2020
7/8/2020
8/8/2020
9/8/2020
1/8/2021
2/8/2021
3/8/2021
5/8/2021
6/8/2021
7/8/2021
8/8/2021
9/8/2021
1/8/2022
2/8/2022
3/8/2022
4/8/2022
5/8/2022
6/8/2022
persist as well as long-term
work-from-home adoption.
Source: Google Workplace Mobility, most highly correlated with CPG sales, across multiple COVID-19 related variables tested. Forecasts represent IRI Strategic Analytics point of view, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Highly impacted by
Anticipate Moderate Growth in 2021, consumer mobility, 2021
CPG performance will vary
Following the 2020 Surge with COVID-19 vaccine
timing, with earlier
Total CPG Omnichannel Dollar Sales Growth June Vaccine distribution increasing
Forecast / % Change vs. YA / Median Forecast December Vaccine mobility and driving more
consumption to away-
EDIBLE from-home.
15.6 20
12.4
Economic recovery and
10.1
10 availability of further
3.0 stimulus will also impact
0 growth and likelihood of
more value
-2.8
-4.8 -10 behaviors manifesting.
NONEDIBLE Expect different cohort
15.4 behaviors; younger
13.2 14.3 20 generations increase
3.5 mobility faster than
10
older cohorts.
2019 2020 0
-1.9 -1.0
vs. 2018 vs. 2019 -10 CPG pricing is likely to
2021 (Median 2021 (Median (click to see
Forecast vs. 2020) Forecast vs. 2019) moderate due to softer full report)
economic recovery.
Forecast error range +/- 2%
Note: Omnichannel includes MULO + C + Costco + E-comm. 2020 = data ending 11/8/20, forecast for remainder of year,. E-commerce includes Click and Collect and Pure Play
Source: IRI POS, eMarket Insights and Consumer Panel IRI Strategic Analytics, Proprietary forecasting methodology / weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15In Contrast to Other Channels, E-Commerce Will Continue to
Grow Regardless of the Timing of Vaccine Availability in 2021
Total CPG % Change vs. YA June Vaccine
December Vaccine
2019 2020 2021 (Median 2021 (Median
vs. 2018 vs. 2019 Forecast vs. 2020) Forecast vs. 2019)
Total -3.7 11.0
3.2 15.5 -2.1
Omnichannel 13.1
MULO -7.7 3.2
1.3 11.5 -10.3
Brick & Mortar 0.3
Grocery -11.0 3.5
1.0 16.3
Brick & Mortar -12.7 1.5
11.9 92.0
E-Commerce1 22.0 58.6
31.5 125.5
1.1 3.3
Convenience 3.4 2.9
0.3 4.1
(click to see
full report)
Forecast error range +/- 2%
Note: Omnichannel includes MULO + C + Costco + E-comm. 2020 = data ending 11/8/20, forecast for remainder of year. Source: IRI POS, eMarket Insights and Consumer Panel IRI Strategic Analytics,
Proprietary forecasting methodology 1. E-commerce data includes eCommerce of MULO and Grocery as well as pure plays / weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16RETAILER IMPLICATIONS MANUFACTURER
IMPLICATIONS OF THE IMPLICATIONS
COVID-19
VACCINE
• Mixed consumer sentiment as of mid- • Despite not being a direct part of the
November toward vaccines provides solution, CPGs can be good citizens
retailers with opportunities to and offer incentives and support for
incentivize consumer adoption of those who seek a vaccine.
vaccines, driving more profitable store • Partner with retailers to promote
traffic and ultimately growing loyalty vaccines; offer targeted products,
with new and existing shoppers. messages and promotions on
• Two-dose vaccines enable retailers to indulgent and wellness products while
have potentially two additional consumers are in the store.
opportunities to connect with shoppers.
• Given the demographic skews of early
adopters, retailers and manufacturers
have an opportunity to offer products,
promotions and messages tailored to
them and evolve the offers as adoption
increases (e.g., older males in metros
initially)
Source: IRI Survey of Primary Grocery Shoppers 7/31-8/2, weighted to reflect U.S. population
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17Mark Clouse Stuart Aitken Vivek Sankaran
President and CEO, Campbell Soup Company Chief Merchant & Marketing Officer, The Kroger Co. President & CEO, Albertsons Companies
November 10, 2020 September 3, 2020 August 25, 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18IRI COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS (click to see full report)
COVID-19: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF THE CPG DEMAND CURVE
SPECIAL COVID-19 SERIES: RECESSION PROOF YOUR BUSINESS
COVID-19 EMERGING POINT OF VIEW DISCOVERING POCKETS OF DEMAND
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19CPG Economic Indicators
Access IRI’s industry-standard metrics for consumer product demand and supply
during the pandemic, our CPG inflation tracker and the latest data on category
trends, out-of-stock levels, consumer sentiment and more.
U.S. Demand Channel Shift E-Commerce
Demand Index™
Index™ Forecasts Index™ Demand Index™
Inflation Out-of-Stock Levels U.S. Topics from
Supply Index™
Tracker™ for Subcategories IRI Social Pulse™
The IRI CPG Demand Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking
changes in spending on consumer packaged goods.
U.S. Demand Index™ Forecasts are delivered through a proprietary,
fully automated forecasting solution that anticipates consumer demand.
Channel Shift Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes (migration)
in spending on consumer packaged goods across select channels.
The IRI E-Commerce Demand Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes
in spending on consumer packaged goods purchased online.
Inflation Tracker™ provides the well-known price per unit metric for tracking changes in pricing of consumer packaged goods.
Supply Index™ provides a standard metric for tracking changes in product availability (i.e., in-stock rates) in stores for consumer packaged goods.
Out-of-Stock Levels for Top-Selling Subcategories by Market Area in the U.S.
Top U.S. Topics from IRI Social Pulse™
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20Want to Be the First to Know?
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