AUSTRALIAN FUEL INDUSTRY QUARTERLY UPDATE - SEPTEMBER QTR 2021 - ACAPMA
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M
S EARCH
P T E M BQETRRQ-T2R02
- 2021
AUSTRALIAN FUEL INDUSTRY
QUARTERLY UPDATE
A JOINT INITIATIVE OF ACAPMA AND
THE INFORMED SOURCES GROUP
2
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS AT 31 MA R CH 2 02 2
T HE F UEL INDUSTR Y’S QUAR TE R L Y R E P O R T O N T H E L A T E ST I N SI G H T S
AN D DAT A O N P R ODUCT / P LA C E / P R O MO T I O N / P R I C E
The dynamics of the fuel market during the March 2022 2. E AST C OAST F L OOD S IMP AC T ED F UEL
|
Quarter were volatile and shaped by three significant OP ERAT IONS
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
events. The first was the Omicron Outbreak in Eastern Communities in South-Eastern Queensland (including
Australia during December/January which reduced Greater Brisbane) and New South Wales (including
intrastate and interstate travel. Greater Western Sydney) were impacted by severe
The second was a series of major flood events in floods during February and March 2022. The worst hit
Eastern Australia which further dampened demand in region was the NSW Northern Rivers Region with the
NSW and Queensland. town of Lismore experiencing a near -record flood event
that decimated the majority of the town.
The third was the Russia/Ukraine conflict which resulted
in rapidly escalating average fuel prices during the latter The floods impacted fuel transport and fuel retailing
half of the Quarter, resulting in some price sensitive in large parts of NSW and Queensland. The flooded
consumer behaviour such as ‘product step-down’ (i.e. Brisbane river also created some short-term challenges
purchasing cheaper grades of fuel in lieu of the more with fuel supply out of the Port of Brisbane, but this issue
expensive premium grade). was resolved by the end of the March 2022 Quarter.
At the time of writing this report, the majority of the 17
1. S
HARP RI S ES IN G L O B A L O IL P R IC E S service stations in Lismore were closed and fuel retailers
AN D F U E L EX C IS E R EL IEF
advised that it would be some time before these sites
Oil market speculation about the likely impact of the could be reopened given the severe nature of flood
potential loss of Russian Oil (and oil product) exports impacts.
– with Russia being the largest exporter in the world –
saw oil prices (TAPIS), rise from USD$83 per barrel 3. A
VERAG E WH OL ESAL E AND RET AIL
on 1 January 2022 to a peak of USD$133 per barrel P RIC ES ROSE SH ARP LY D URING T H E
(i.e. 60% increase) before ending the quarter at $115 QUART ER
per barrel (i.e. 39% increase). The combination of tight global oil supply caused by the
erratic COVID-19 recovery in developed economies and
The subsequent sharp rise in the average retail price
the unforeseen Russia-Ukraine conflict caused average
of petrol and diesel generated significant national
fuel prices to rise sharply during the quarter.
discussion about average fuel prices.
3.1 Average Petrol Prices (Capital City average)
Mindful of the increasing economic and social impact
of fuel prices on Australian businesses and households, Average wholesale prices (i.e. TGP) for unleaded
the Australian Government introduced a temporary petrol in Australia’s 8 capital cites rose by 20cpl (or
excise reduction as part of the 2022 Budget. The 13.4%) during the Quarter, compared with the previous
temporary measure involved a 50% reduction in Federal December 2021 Quarter.
Fuel Excise for a period of 6 month, commencing on 30
By comparison, the average retail price for RULP during
March 2022.
the Quarter increased by 18.7cpl (or 11.3%) compared
The surprise announcement caught many fuel retailers with the prior Quarter.
and fuel wholesalers by surprise, with the competition
The highest average petrol price during the Quarter
dynamic causing many retailers to pass on the excise
occurred in the Hobart market (194.0cpl), followed by
in the following 3-7 days given that an estimated
Darwin (185.7cpl) and Brisbane (184.1 cpl). Adelaide had
700Million litres had already passed the excise point at
the lowest average petrol price for the Quarter (178.6cpl)
the time of the announcement.
followed by Perth (181.2cpl) and Melbourne (181.4cpl).
The fuel excise cut received bi-partisan support and is
legislated to end at midnight on 28 September 2022.
3
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS AT 31 MA R CH 2 02 2
3.2 Average Diesel Prices (Capital City average) Customer aggression was experienced across the
network but fuel retailers in the Northern Territory
Average wholesale prices (i.e. TGP) for diesel in
reported a dramatic increase in reportable incidents
Australia’s 8 capital cites rose by 25.6cpl (or 17.4%)
during the Quarter.
during the Quarter, compared with the previous
December 2021 Quarter.
|
6. T
H E RAT E OF SIT E B RAND ING
By comparison, the average retail price for diesel during C H ANG ES SL OWED D URING T H E
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
the Quarter increased by 22.9cpl (or 14.1%) compared QUART ER
with the prior Quarter. There were 7343 fuel retail sites in Australia as at 31
March 2022. During the March 2022 Quarter, 259 sites
The highest average diesel price during the Quarter
changed the brand displayed on their canopy.
occurred in the Hobart market (193.3cpl), followed by
Darwin (188.3cpl) and Canberra (187.2cpl). Perth had the The rate of change of canopy brand during the Quarter
lowest average diesel price for the Quarter (180.8cpl) (i.e. 3.5%) slowed significantly compared with the
followed by Adelaide (181.2cpl) and Sydney (181.5cpl). December 2021 Quarter (4.9%) and the September
2021 Quarter (6.8%).
4. F
U E L VO L U M ES FEL L D U R ING TH E
Much of this slowing is attributable to the fact that
Q U ART E R A ND PETR O L S A L ES R EMAIN
DO W N O N PR E- C O V ID 19 L EV EL S the national rebranding of the former Caltex sites as
AMPOL is nearing completion.
Total retail volumes fell during the Quarter, compared
with the previous December 2021 Quarter. The fall in
petrol sales is attributed to both the Omicron outbreak
that reduced inter-state and intrastate travel during
January 2022 and the East Coast Flood Disasters that
occurred during February and March 2022.
Total petrol sales during the Quarter were 5.1% lower
than the December 2021 Quarter and 9% lower than
the March 2019 Quarter (i.e. Pre-COVID19). Diesel sales
during the Quarter, however, were 8% higher than the
same period in 2019.
Retail fuel volumes were highest in NSW (including the
ACT) which accounted for 29.5% of all fuel retailed in
Australia during the quarter, followed by Victoria (27%),
and Queensland (22%).
5. F
U E L T HEFT A ND A G G R ES S IO N O N
T HE RI S E A C R O S S TH E NA TIO NA L
N E T WO RK
Fuel retailers reported a significant increase in the rate
of fuel theft (i.e. Drive-offs) and customer aggression
during the Quarter, with some suggesting that these
trends appeared to have worsened in the face of sharp
rises in average fuel prices during the Quarter.
Preliminary analysis of the increased fuel theft suggests
that the rate of theft had increased by around 10%
during the Quarter, which equates to an increase in fuel
theft loss of approximately $8.7M per year.
4
1. F UEL PRICES SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
A S A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 02 2
AVE R A G E W H O LES A LE A N D R ET A I L P R I C ES
RULP DIESEL
TGP MIN. MEAN MAX. TGP MIN. MEAN MAX.
SY DNEY
|
MAR QTR - 2022 170.1 142.7 182.4 203.0 171.9 150.8 181.5 194.8
DEC QTR - 2021 149.4 137.4 166.0 188.5 146.1 137.9 159.2 171.8
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
SEP QTR - 2021 138.2 131.6 155.6 177.2 133.9 127.2 144.4 157.8
JUN QTR - 2021 128.7 121.6 144.6 170.0 124.9 121.2 134.1 155.9
M ELBOU RN E
MAR QTR - 2022 169.0 162.5 181.4 197.8 171.9 149.5 182.8 196.4
DEC QTR - 2021 149.0 145.7 162.1 183.2 146.0 129.0 160.3 173.0
SEP QTR - 2021 137.7 134.4 155.1 176.8 133.7 114.9 145.1 155.8
JUN QTR - 2021 128.2 122.2 144.4 170.8 125.4 114.9 135.1 148.8
BRISBA N E
MAR QTR - 2022 168.5 162.1 184.1 206.7 170.9 152.3 184.6 209.2
DEC QTR - 2021 148.7 145.6 164.4 189.4 145.5 144.5 161.4 187.0
SEP QTR - 2021 137.4 134.3 156.5 177.0 133.2 123.9 146.7 173.9
JUN QTR - 2021 127.6 126.7 146.6 169.4 123.9 120.0 135.9 163.7
A DELA IDE
MAR QTR - 2022 169.3 163.5 178.6 196.1 171.5 169.8 181.2 188.0
DEC QTR - 2021 149.3 141.3 157.7 178.9 146.2 143.3 157.0 165.1
SEP QTR - 2021 138.0 129.5 145.0 165.3 133.8 131.6 141.6 152.1
JUN QTR - 2021 128.5 117.8 134.8 162.5 124.9 121.9 133.2 142.1
PERTH
MAR QTR - 2022 168.9 161.3 181.2 197.9 170.8 165.7 180.8 199.6
DEC QTR - 2021 148.5 144.1 163.0 178.5 145.4 144.2 159.7 175.6
SEP QTR - 2021 137.4 131.6 149.3 169.5 133.1 129.3 141.6 164.5
JUN QTR - 2021 128.0 120.3 139.6 163.1 124.7 120.6 132.7 152.4
HOBA RT
MAR QTR - 2022 175.0 180.2 194.0 201.5 177.6 160.9 193.3 202.8
DEC QTR - 2021 154.9 162.8 174.1 180.1 151.7 140.9 170.1 181.3
SEP QTR - 2021 143.8 143.9 154.1 160.1 139.5 140.5 150.6 155.8
JUN QTR - 2021 135.6 131.6 144.5 150.6 132.2 130.1 142.9 149.4
DA RW IN
MAR QTR - 2022 173.1 181.2 185.7 191.8 174.7 183.5 188.3 195.7
DEC QTR - 2021 153.7 161.8 166.2 177.1 149.6 161.2 163.9 171.5
SEP QTR - 2021 142.5 147.9 150.5 162.2 137.3 147.5 150.2 155.7
JUN QTR - 2021 132.2 138.8 139.9 148.6 127.9 133.6 135.6 144.1
CA N BERRA
MAR QTR - 2022 170.1 170.1 183.6 188.7 171.9 174.0 187.2 195.0
DEC QTR - 2021 149.4 155.8 168.1 175.7 146.1 154.4 165.2 170.3
SEP QTR - 2021 138.2 141.4 153.4 156.0 134.0 139.4 150.1 155.6
JUN QTR - 2021 128.7 130.5 141.2 143.9 124.9 130.1 140.1 144.8
DA TA SOURC E : I N FO RME D S O U R CE S O I L P R I C EW A T C H R EP O R T S
NOT E : R E G U L A R UN LE A DE D PE T RO L IS 91-O C T A N E FUEL. CANB ER R A TGP IS B ASED ON THE SY DNEY TGP .
5
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2.1 S IT E BR ANDING BY AUSTR AL I A N ST A T E A N D T E R R I T O R Y
The following charts provide a summary of the composition of retail brands at fuel retail sites for each geographic market
in Australia as at 31 March 2022. This information reveals that the proportion of ‘independent and minor’ brands is highest
in the Northern Territory (49%) and lowest in the Australian Capital Territory (2%).
|
In addition, the information reveals that the following brands have the greatest site presence in the respective Australian
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
State and Territory markets:
• New South Wales: Independent / Minor Brands (27% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter
• Victoria: BP Australia (19% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter
• Queensland: Independent and minor brands (24% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter
• South Australia: Independent and minor brands (33% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter
• Western Australia: BP Australia (25% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter
• Tasmania: Caltex / Ampol (26% of all sites) - decrease of 1% on prior Quarter
• Northern Territory: Independent and minor brands (49% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter
• Australian Capital Territory: Shell/Coles (25% of all sites) - no change on prior Quarter6
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
Shell / Coles United
12.4% 3.4%
7 Eleven
8.2%
|
Metro Fuel
8.2%
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
BP
15.1%
Liberty
2.8%
N SW
EG Group
6.9%
Independent*
27.4%
Caltex / Ampol
15.6%
*I N D E PE N D E NT & M I N O R B R A N D S I N N S W :
Apco, Budget, Chevron, Costco, Enhance, Freedom Fuels, IGA, Lowes, Mobil, Pacific
Petroleum, Prime Petroleum, Puma Energy, Speedway, Unigas, Westside
United
Shell / Coles 9.0%
18.2%
7 Eleven
10.8%
Metro Fuel
2.0%
Liberty
3.2%
VI C
BP
Independent*
19.3%
14.2%
Caltex / Ampol EG Group
13.9% 9.6%
*I N D E PE N D E N T & M I N O R B R A N D S I N V I C :
Apco, Astron, Better Choice, Costco, Enhance, Mobil, Mogas, On the Run,
Pacific Petroleum, Petrogas, Puma Energy, Riordan Fuel, Speedway, Westside7
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
Shell / Coles United
10.2% 5.8%
7 Eleven
Puma Energy 9.4%
7.8%
|
Metro Fuel
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
1.5%
Liberty
3.0% BP
17.0%
QLD
Independent*
EG Group
23.9%
6.3%
Caltex / Ampol
15.1%
*I N D E PE N D E NT & M I N O R B R A N D S I N Q LD :
Better Choice, Costco, CQP, Enhance, Freedom Fuels, Lowes, Mobil, Pacific Petroleum
Shell / Coles United
9.7% 3.9%
BP
6.2%
EG Group
4.8%
On The Run
21.3%
Caltex / Ampol
16.8%
SA
Liberty
4.6%
Independent*
32.7%
*I N D E PE N D E NT & M I N O R B R A N D S I N S A :
Costco, Endeavour Petroleum, Mobil, Mogas, Perrys, Puma Energy, X Convenience8
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
United
Shell / Coles
4.0%
14.0% 7 Eleven
4.9%
|
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
Puma Energy
BP
12.4%
24.8%
Metro Fuel WA
0.2%
Liberty
3.2%
EG Group
Independent* 4.3%
15.9%
Caltex / Ampol
16.2%
*I N D E PE N D E N T & M I N O R B R A N D S I N W A :
Better Choice, Costco, Mobil, Mogas, Vibe, X Convenience
Shell / Coles
11.6% United
Liberty 19.4%
1.4%
Independent*
18.7%
TAS
BP
18.0%
EG Group
4.8%
Caltex / Ampol
26.2%
*I N D E PE N D E N T & M I N O R B R A N D S I N T A S :
Lowes, Mobil9
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
Shell / Coles United
7.5% 8.4%
BP
Puma Energy 7.9%
|
15.0%
EG Group
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
4.2%
Caltex / Ampol
NT 8.4%
Independent*
48.6%
*I N D E PE N D E N T & M I N O R B R A N D S I N N T :
FuelXpress, Mobil, Pacific Petroleum
United
3.3%
Shell / Coles 7 Eleven
25.0% 16.7%
Metro Fuel ACT BP
3.3% 13.3%
Independent*
1.7%
Caltex / Ampol
EG Group
20.0%
16.7%
*I N D E PE N D E NT & M I N O R B R A N D S I N A C T :
Costco
DA TA SOURC E : I N FO RME D S O U R CE S N E T W A T C H
NE T W AT CH SU RVE YS IN C LUDE C -S T O RE PURC H ASE AND COLLECTION OF AB N TO DETER MINE INDICATIVE
OW NE R S H I P/ OP E RA T IO N T YPE10
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .2 S IT E OWNER SHIP / OP ER AT I O N ST R U C T UR E S
A fact that is not well understood about the industry is that the fuel retail industry comprises a large number of small
businesses that compete with each other (it is currently estimated that there are more than 2,300 fuel businesses in
the market).
|
Many of these smaller businesses operate under the umbrella of a major fuel company brand which often leads to an
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
incorrect perception that the industry is dominated by a small number of large businesses. Some of these businesses
compete directly with company owned sites while others sell fuel on behalf of the bigger fuel companies on a fixed
commission basis, contributing to a deeply competitive national fuel retail market.
The principal operating models used in the Australian fuel retail industry can be summarized as follows:
• Company Owned / Dealer operated (CODO): These are small retail businesses that are directly contracted to
operate a site that is owned (or leased) by a major fuel brand. These businesses sell fuel on a fixed commission basis
and essentially operate as a retail tenant. Pricing decisions rest with the major fuel brand and not the small business.
• Company Owned / Company Operated (COCO): These are retail sites that are operated by the company whose
brand is displayed on the site. As the name implies, the fuel company is both the owner and operator of the site and
makes the pricing decision.
• Dealer Owned / Dealer Operated (DODO): These are smaller retail fuel businesses, often family businesses
that own or lease their own site. These businesses enter into fuel supply contracts with major fuel brands under a
marketing arrangement that allows the business to display the big company brand. These businesses differ from
CODO’s in that they actually buy the fuel from the big company at wholesale prices and set their own prices - often in
competition with COCO’s that are trading under the same brands.
• Independents: These are sites that don’t operate under any of the major brands. These sites use a mix of the three
business models described above.
The following chart on page 11 provides a summary of the ownership structure that was in existence in each Capital City
market as at 31 March 2022. Analysis of this information reveals that:
• COCO business structures are dominant in Adelaide (65% of all sites), Canberra (57% of all sites) and Perth (52%).
• DODO business structures are highest in Hobart (43% of all sites) and Sydney (40%).11
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
OW N ERS HIP TYP E BY CAP ITAL C I T Y
SYDNEY
SYDN E Y
|
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
MELBOURNE
M E LBOURN E
BRISBANE
BRISBAN E
ADELAIDE
ADE LAIDE
PERTH
PE RT H
HOBART
HOBART
DARW IN
DARWIN
CAN BE RRA
CANBERRA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0% 10%
COD O 20%
COCO 30% D OD O
40% I N50%
D E P E N D E60%
NT 70% 80% 90%
DA TA SOURC E : I N FO RME D S O U R CE S N E T W A T C H
NE T W AT CH SU RVE YS IN C LUDE C -S T O RE PURC H ASE AND COLLECTION OF AB N TO DETER MINE INDICATIVE
OW NE R S H I P/ OP E RA T IO N T YPE12
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .3 C HANGES IN SITE BR ANDING
The following charts provide a summary of the changes in site branding that occurred in each geographic market during
the last quarter. A review of these charts gives rise to the following major observations:
A majority of the brand changes recorded during the quarter relate to the rebranding of the Caltex sites to AMPOL (with
|
the CALTEX brand to be rolled out by Chevron - the new owner of PUMA energy - from early 2022).
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
Despite the long lockdowns in NSW and Victoria, early signs are that there has been little change in the retail site
population in these two states during the Quarter. In fact, the number of retail sites increased by four (4) in NSW and by
seven (7) in Victoria during the March 2022 Quarter
AUSTRALIA SITE NUMBERS
RATE OF CHANGE: MAR QTR - 2022 259
RATE OF CHANGE: DEC QTR - 2021 362
RATE OF CHANGE: SEP QTR - 2021 49913
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
N SW - VAR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 2399 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 2395 SITES
|
7 Eleven
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
Ampol
BP
Caltex
Enhance
Euro Garages
Independent
Liberty
Lowes
Matilda
Metro Fuel
Mobil
United
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
VIC - V AR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 1069 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 1062 SITES
7 Eleven
Ampol
Astron
Caltex
Coles Express/Shell
Euro Garages
Independent
Liberty
Peregrine Corporation
United
-2 0 2 414
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
Q LD - VAR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 1749 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 1758 SITES
|
7 Eleven
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
Ampol
BP
Caltex
Euro Garages
Freedom Fuels
Independent
Liberty
Metro Fuel
Central Queensland
Petroleum
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
S A - VAR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 692 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 690 SITES
7 Eleven
Ampol
AM/PM
BP
Caltex
Euro Garages
Freedom Fuels
Independent
Liberty
Mobil
Mogas
Peregrine Corporation
X Convenience
Perrys
-20 -10 0 10 2015
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
W A - VAR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 926 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 924 SITES
|
7 Eleven
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
Ampol
BP
Caltex
Coles Express/Shell
Independent
Liberty
-10 -5 0 5 10
T AS - VAR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 294 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 292 SITES
Caltex
Independent
0 1
N T - VAR IANCE BY BR AND
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2022 214 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 DEC 2021 212 SITES
Ampol
Caltex
Independent
Mobil
-5 0 5 10 15
AC T - N O VAR IANCE
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 30 JUN 2022 60 SITES
TOTAL COUNT AS AT 31 MAR 2021 60 SITES16
2. RETAIL
NETWORK SNAPSHOT
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .4 Q UAR TER LY FUEL VOLUMES A N D F UE L SA L E S B Y T Y P E
Analysis of fuel volumes across State and Territory markets reveals that retail sales volumes fell nationally during the
March 2022 Quarter, compared with the previous December 2022 Quarter. The most significant falls in retail volumes
occurred in Western Australia (-10.5%), South Australia (-7.2%) and Queensland (-6.8%). Victoria was the only
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Australian State or Territory that experienced a net increase in retail sales, but even that increase was modest (0.3%).
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
Much of the reason for the lower sales appears to be due to lower intra-state and inter-state travel during the New
Year Holidays – that is, the first month of the Quarter - due to the Omicron COVID-19 outbreak and ongoing travel
restrictions in Western Australia and Queensland. High fuel prices and natural disasters during February and March
are also likely to have constrained retail demand during the Quarter.
Despite increased price sensitivity in the face of rapidly escalating oil prices, the proportion of premium fuel sales
(95RON and 98RON) exceeded RULP sales in the State of NSW during the Quarter. NSW also experienced a slight
increase in the purchase of E10 during the Quarter, with this increase apparently coming at the cost of RULP sales.
Sales of E10 in Queensland (5.1%) were approximately half of E10 sales in NSW (9.9%) during the March 2022
Quarter. The majority of fuel sold at service stations in the Northern Territory was diesel (84%) compared with
RULP (12%) and 95RON (4%).
RET AILER AUTO MOTIVE FUEL V O L U ME S B Y ST A T E
N NSW
SW
VIC
VIC
QQLD
LD
MA R QT R 2 02 2
D E C QT R 2 02 1
SA
SA
S E P QT R 2 02 1
JUN QT R 2 02 1
WA
WA
TAS
TAS
NNT
T
0 500 1000 1500 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
DA TA SOURC E : I N FO RME D S O U R CE S N E T W A T C H
NE T W AT CH SU RVE YS IN C LUDE C -S T O RE PURC H ASE AND COLLECTION OF AB N TO DETER MINE INDICATIVE
OW NE R S H I P/ OP E RA T IO N T YPE17
2. RETAIL
OUTLET SUMMARY
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .4 Q UAR TER LY FUEL VOLUMES A N D F UE L SA L E S B Y T Y P E
PULP95
6.9%
PULP98
|
9.9%
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
RULP
NSW 14.9%
DIESEL
58.4%
ETHANOL BLENDS
9.9%
PULP95
4.0%
PULP98
7.1%
VIC RULP
29.3%
DIESEL
56.6%
ETHANOL BLENDS
3.0%
PULP95
4.0%
PULP98
5.1%
RULP
15.2%
QLD ETHANOL BLENDS
5.1%
DIESEL
70.7%18
2. RETAIL
OUTLET SUMMARY
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .4 Q UAR TER LY FUEL VOLUMES A N D F UE L SA L E S B Y T Y P E
PULP95
3.0%
PULP98
|
4.0%
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
RULP
28.0%
SA
DIESEL
65.0%
PULP95
3.0%
PULP98
3.0%
RULP
13.0%
WA
DIESEL
81.0%
PULP95
4.0%
RULP
32.3%
TAS
DIESEL
63.6%19
2. RETAIL
OUTLET SUMMARY
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .4 Q UAR TER LY FUEL VOLUMES A N D F UE L SA L E S B Y T Y P E
PULP95
4.0%
RULP
|
12.0%
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
NT
DIESEL
84.0%
DA TA SOURC E : I N FO RME D S O U R CE S N E T W A T C H
D E P AR T ME NT OF IN DUS T RY, S C IE N C E , E N E RG Y A ND R ESOUR CES
2 .5 AUST R ALIAN MOGAS VO LU ME S SP L I T B Y F U E L G R A D E
RULP P ULP 9 5 P ULP 9 8
MAR QTR 2022 2147.5 531.8 702.7
DEC QTR 2021 2291.7 501.9 772.8
MAR QTR 2022 1900.9 390.5 591.5
An analysis of the grades of motor spirit sold during the March 2022 Quarter revealed that the volume of Regular
Unleaded Petrol (RULP) fell by 6.3% and the volume of Premium Unleaded Petrol 98 (PULP98) fell by 9.1 %.
Interestingly, and despite having a higher average retail price than RULP, sales of Premium Unleaded Petrol 95 (PULP95)
increased by 6%.
It is suggested that these conflicting trends highlight the fact that the Quarter was influenced by two significant factors.
First demand destruction caused by the COVID19 lockdowns in the first month of the Quarter which lowered all product
sales. Second, the rapid price escalation in the last month of the Quarter is believed to have caused a significant
proportion of motorists who would normally purchase PULP98 to opt for the lower priced PULP95.20
2. REGIONAL
FUEL PRICES
M AR QTR - 20 22
AS A T 3 1 MA R CH 2 022
2 .6 REG ULAR UNLEADED P R ICE S I N Q UE E N SL A N D
The chart below plots the average regular unleaded price in the Greater Brisbane Area (i.e. South-East Queensland)
against the average price in Regional Queensland – and the average terminal Gate Price (or ‘Wholesale’ price) for fuel in
Queensland – for the Quarter ending 31 March 2022.
|
As can be seen below, the difference between the QLD regional average and the Brisbane metro average varied over
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
time given the operation of the petrol price cycle in South-East Queensland. At certain points when the metro price was
at or near the top of the price cycle, the average retail price in Brisbane was between 16cpl (15 January 2022) and 8cpl (14
March 2022) higher than the regional QLD average retail price of regular unleaded petrol.
Conversely, at the bottom of the Brisbane petrol price cycle the average price of unleaded in the Brisbane metropolitan
area was between 6cpl lower (6 March 2022) and 11cpl (3 January 2022) to 12cpl lower (30 March 2022) than prices in
Regional Queensland..
The analysis demonstrates that any meaningful ‘Metro vs Regional’ comparison of fuel prices for a given Australian State/
250.0
Territory should be considered at least on a quarterly basis and take due account of the metropolitan fuel price discount
cycle..
220.00
210.00
200.00
200.0
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
150.0
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.0
100.00
01.01.22
07.01.22
14.01.22
21.01.22
28.01.22
04.02.22
11.02.22
18.02.22
25.02.22
04.03.22
11.03.22
18.03.22
25.03.22
31.03.22
R E GI O N AL Q LD SO U T H E A ST Q L D B R I SB A N E T G P
50.0
0.0
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
02
09
16
23
30
06
13
20
27
06
13
20
27
Date21
3. SUMMARY & NEAR TERM OUTLOOK
M AR QTR - 20 22
T HE M ARCH 2022 QUAR TER WA S A S C H A L L E N G I N G A S T H E P R E VI O US
C OVID19 IMP ACTED QUAR TER S O F T H E P A ST 2 Y E A R S – B U T F O R VE R Y
DIF F ERENT R EASONS.
|
The first month of the Quarter was impacted by lower Given that Russia is the biggest exporter of crude oil
AU STRA L I A N FU E L I N D UST R Y Q UA R T E R L Y UP D A T E
demand as a result of reduced inter-state and intrastate and crude oil products (i.e. an estimated 7.8M BBLS per
travel caused by the Omicron Outbreak over the 2021 day), market speculation about the impacts of European
Christmas/New Year period. boycotts of this export volume generated a 60%
increase in crude oil prices over the Quarter.
The reduced retail demand was further impacted by
flood disasters in NSW and SE Queensland during This price increase was reflected in average Australian
February and March which also created some pump prices and caused the Australian Government to
challenges in fuel distribution in affected areas. halve fuel excise for a period of 6 months commencing
on 30 March 2022.
Fuel prices at the start of the Quarter continued to be
impacted by the tight global oil supply situation created The near term outlook is one of volatile oil and finished
by COVID-19 but were then exacerbated by the Russia- fuel prices and a likely further tempering of demand as
Ukraine conflict. Australian households tighten their wallets in the face of
emerging inflationary pressures.
4. FU RTHER ENQURIES
General inquiries about the information contained in this paper can be directed to either Mark McKenzie (CEO, ACAPMA)
or Nick Ferris (Commercial Manager Asia Pacific, Informed Sources).
M ARK M CKENZIE NICK FERRIS
Chief Executive Officer, Australasian Commercial Manager (Asia Pacific)
Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Informed Sources (International) Pty Ltd.
Association (ACAPMA)
M: 0426 202 789
M: 0447 444 011
E: nferris@informedsources.com
E: markm@acapma.com.au
W: informedsources.com
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