AUTOFACTS SZENARIEN DES WANDELS IN DER AUTOMOBILINDUSTRIE - ARGEZ
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www.pwc.com
Autofacts®
Szenarien des Wandels in der
Automobilindustrie
ArGeZ Forum
28 January 2016
Agenda Page
1 Global Forecast Update 3
2 Industry Transformation Scenarios 11
3 Autofacts – Mission 23
PwC Autofacts ® 2
1 Global Forecast Update Global Forecast Update PwC Autofacts ® 3
1 Global Forecast Update
Autofacts® estimates light vehicle assembly of 88.2m units in 2015 and
forecasts 108.7m units in 2021, equating to a CAGR* of 3.6% from 2015 – 2021
Light Vehicle Assembly
2011 – 2021 (millions)
160 100%
90%
140
80%
31,1 31,7
120 33,2 31,5
35,0 70%
35,2
33,6
100 29,1
23,8 60%
+ 25.8%
22,6
20,1
80 50%
40%
60
105,3 107,3 108,7
97,1 101,7 30%
86,4 88,2 92,7
40 80,3 83,9
75,6
20%
20
10%
- 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis)
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Forecast Release *CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
PwC Autofacts ® 41 Global Forecast Update
The lion’s share of new production is expected to come from developing
markets, and in particular developing China and India
Regional Contribution to Growth*
2014 – 2021 (percentage share)
Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) Asia-Pacific
North South European Eastern Middle East Developing Developed
America America Union Europe & Africa Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific
14.1% 5.0% 10.9% 6.8% 4.9% 62.8% -4.5%
Regional Topline Comparison & Volume Change
2014 vs. 2021
∆ +3.2m +1.1m +2.4m +1.5m +1.1m +14.0m -1.0m
2021 20.3m 4.9m 19.2m 4.8m 3.0m 44.0m 12.4m
2014 17.1m 3.8m 16.8m 3.3m 1.9m 30.0m 13.4m
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Forecast Release *Region size not to scale **CTG = Contribution to Growth
PwC Autofacts ® 51 Global Forecast Update
The effect of global growth patterns will be even an greater importance of
locations outside of the traditional car building regions
Global manufacturing footprint
2010 vs. 2021 (percentage share)
Germany 7% 6%
NAFTA 16% 19%
EU-27* 15% 12% 22% 28% China
2010, global assembly: 72.7 m ROW 40% 35%
2021, global assembly: 108.7 m
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ® 61 Global Forecast Update
At the country level it’s clear to see where growth is expected to happen …
8 of the top 10 volume growth countries are classified as emerging.
Top 10 & Bottom 10 Volume Growth Markets
2014 vs. 2021 Variance (thousands)
10.000
8.837
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000 3.571
3.000 2.758
2.091
2.000 1.495 1.491
867 813 772 705
1.000 546
0
(6) (9) (16) (19) (46) (104) (128) (184)
(1.000) (434) (694)
(2.000)
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Forecast Release *ROI = Rest of Industry
PwC Autofacts ® 71 Global Forecast Update
Despite calls for industry consolidation, particularly in China, the global
automotive market is expected to remain highly diversified.
Top 10 Alliance Group LV Production
2014 vs. 2021 (millions)
30
26,2
25
55 Alliance Groups (24%)
20 19,1
57 Alliance Groups (22%)
15
12,5
11,7 11,1 10,8
10,1 9,8 10,1
10 9,3
8,3 8,0 8,2
6,0 6,0 5,7
4,4 4,5
5 3,2 3,9 3,4
2,9
0
VW GM Toyota RN* Hyundai Ford FCA** Honda PSA Suzuki Other
2014 2021F
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Forecast Release *RN = Renault-Nissan **FCA = Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles
PwC Autofacts ® 81 Global Forecast Update
2015 will likely be a record year for automotive supplier deal value. PwC is
forecasting $48bn in closed transactions for the full year.
Component Supplier M&A Activity – Closed Deals, by Year Closed
2007 – 2015 ($ billions)
$60 350
303
275 278 300
$50
243
250
$40 214 213
$18
189 186 200
195
$30
150
$20
$35 100
$30
$10 $20 50
$12 $12 $14
$10 $11
$4
$0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Disclosed Deal Value ($ billions) H2 2015 Forecast Deal Volume (R-Axis)
Source: Thompson Reuters, CapIQ, Other publicly available sources, Strategy& Analysis
PwC Autofacts ® 91 Global Forecast Update
The market share for alternative propulsion vehicles is forecasted to reach
7.0% in 2021, more than doubling from 2014 (3.2%).
Average Engine Displacement Vehicle Propulsion Transmission Share by Gear #
2014 – 2021 (cubic centimeters) 2014 vs. 2021 (percentage share) 2014 – 2021 (percentage share)
100%
2014 2.011
2021F 90%
2015F 2.000 80%
75,4%
70%
2016F 1.976 77,9% 60%
2017F 1.951 50%
2014 40%
2018F 1.927
30%
18,9%
2019F 1.909 17,7% 20%
10%
2020F 1.900
0%
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
2014
2021F 1.892
1.800 1.850 1.900 1.950 2.000 2.050 Gasoline Diesel Hybrid* PHEV Electric Fuel Cell 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CVT Other
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Forecast Release *Includes mild & full hybrid
PwC Autofacts ® 102 Industry Transformation Scenarios Industry Transformation Scenarios PwC Autofacts ® 11
2 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Five global megatrends are fundamentally disrupting the way we do
business, forcing a transformation of the automotive industry
Shifts in global Demographic Technological Rapid Climate change and
economic power and social change breakthroughs urbanisation resource scarcity
68% The US working population
aged over 65 almost doubled
The Sony Playstation of today,
which costs China’s urban population has
By 2030, the demand for
energy will increase by
of companies will have at least between 1990 and 2010 to increased by
one global business unit head
based in Asia by 2017 3.3 million
$300
has the computing power of a
military supercomputer 400 million
50%
of 1997
since 1980
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 122 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Two main dimensions map the future paths of the automotive industry
environment: Customer Behaviour and Regulation
Shared mobility
Consumer behaviour drives automotive
Governments have always had a
sales, so consumer attitudes to cars and to
significant influence on the
the wider question of personal mobility will
automotive industry, from regulating
shape the future.
safety and emissions to restrictions on
market access for foreign
This could precipitate a huge increase in car
manufacturers.
sharing and/or ride sharing. Conventional
thinking suggests this will reduce demand Liberal Restrictive
regulatory regulatory China will be a particular factor in the
for new cars, but could it actually increase next five to ten years, both in terms of
it? Individuals may buy fewer cars but Uber environment environment
sales and as a location for production.
drivers or fleet operators will need to buy More cars are already being
more. assembled in China than in any other
country. If China changes the rules
Technological advances are also applying to foreign companies
transforming the driving experience, from (whether by tightening or
driverless cars to in-car entertainment. liberalising), the impact on the sector
Innovation here will be key to success. as a whole will be profound.
Private usage
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 132 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Four possible future scenarios
Scenario 1: Self driving accelerates – Robot cars take over?
Shared mobility Customer: The typical customers are
urban, and manage their transport
needs digitally. They value the
freedom provided by driverless cars.
Self driving accelerates
Government: Regulations support
In this scenario, governments give the development of self-driving cars,
autonomous vehicles the green light, and regulate their safety.
accelerating uptake of this key new
Distribution: Sales direct to shared
technology.
Liberal Restrictive care fleets and operators become more
regulatory regulatory important in some markets.
In this scenario, the regulatory
environment environment
environment is positive for automotive Competition: Brand loyalty shifts to
companies. Various models for car- and car-sharing platforms, rather than
ride-sharing evolve, and compete makes of car, and players from other
aggressively. Self-driving technology industries exploit this to enter the
develops quickly and proves to be safe. market.
Production: New models evolve in
the sub-compact, compact, mid-size
Private usage and luxury segments to meet diverse
demand.
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 142 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Four possible future scenarios
Scenario 2: Electric chauffeurs – Benevolent dictatorship?
Shared mobility Customer: The typical customer is
the municipality, driven by the need to
reduce congestion and emissions, and
Electric Chauffeurs provide a more comprehensive
electric vehicle infrastructures. Shared
In this scenario, strict fuel efficiency and fleets also become more prevalent.
emissions requirements and a consumer
preference for shared mobility drive a shift Government: Tighter regulations on
towards ride sharing models using electric emissions and fuel efficiency
vehicles. accelerates the adoption of more
Liberal Restrictive electric vehicles
regulatory regulatory
In this scenario, the regulatory
environment environment Distribution: The major
environment is much more restrictive, and
manufacturers are forced to enter into
combines with a stronger shift towards
partnerships with fleet managers and
shared mobility. Many potential car buyers
the ride-sharing operators.
use a ride-sharing service instead of buying
their own car. Such services are strictly Competition: There is over-capacity
regulated, similar to today’s taxis. in many markets.
Production: Tough competition and
Private usage the consequent price pressures lead to
leaner operations.
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 152 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Four possible future scenarios
Scenario 3: Connectivity creates new champions – Old industry fades?
Shared mobility Customer: They use digital
technology to research their options,
and are more willing to buy cars
Connectivity online rather than from dealers. They
creates new champions expect full connectivity in all vehicles.
In this scenario, connectivity becomes a Government: The regulatory
key factor in winning over a growing environment becomes more open,
automotive market worldwide. New with fewer restrictions on foreign
distribution strategies, new partnerships operators.
and potentially new entrants reshape the Liberal Restrictive
marketplace. regulatory regulatory Distribution: Dealerships become
environment environment multi-branded ‘experience centres’ to
In this scenario, the regulatory compete with online sales.
environment continues much as it is, or
even liberalises. Car-sharing and ride- Competition: Technology
sharing do not become mainstream, and companies see the automotive
remain a niche market. This scenario is industry as a new opportunity, and
closest to the current situation. manage to seize key elements of the
value chain
Private usage Production: China increases exports
of its own car brands to other markets.
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 162 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Four possible future scenarios
Scenario 4: Local business models prevail – the end of global synergies?
Customer: Customers convert to
traditional car ownership as their life
Shared mobility stages evolve. Under this scenario
their buying habits and preferences
Local business remain very different in different parts
models prevail of the world.
In this scenario, the established automotive Government: Governments look to
companies need to flex their business automotive companies to help fund
models to address very different regulatory infrastructure.
requirements in local markets. Operating
globally becomes significantly more Distribution: The automotive
Liberal Restrictive companies operate regionally and
challenging.
regulatory regulatory tailor their product development and
environment environment distribution to the individual needs of
In this scenario, car-sharing remains a
small niche while government policies local markets.
become more restrictive. China could
restrict access to foreign manufacturers and Competition: New and innovative
there could be tighter rules governing players challenge the established
autonomous vehicles, and more stringent global players at a local and regional
fuel economy and emission requirements. level.
Private usage Production: Global economies of
scale are harder to achieve, and it’s
also harder to keep all plants running
at full capacity.
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 172 Industry Transformation Scenarios
What is the scenario underlying your corporate plan? How fit are you for a
change of coordinate? Can you serve several scenarios at the same time?
Shared mobility
Self driving accelerates Electric Chauffeurs
Liberal Restrictive
regulatory regulatory
environment environment
Connectivity creates new champions Local business models prevail
Private usage
Source: Re-Inventing the Wheel
PwC Autofacts ® 182 Industry Transformation Scenarios
The adaptation to a new scenario should consider all aspects of a company:
The future “Way to Play” should deliver a convincing “Right to Win”
Competitive
Customers
environment
• How quickly will my Competitive environment • How are my customers
market change? changing?
• Who are my new • Which customer segments
competitors? and geographies do I want
to serve and how?
• What is the government
doing in order to achieve
policy goals?
Purpose
Business model Operating model
• What are the new value • How do I align my
pools in the market and operating model and
what should be my focus? culture?
• What should be my future • How do I finance this path
business model? of change?
Source: Energy Transformation Toolkit
PwC Autofacts ® 192 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Thank you for your attention!
Prepared by: Christoph Stürmer
Christoph Stürmer
Global Lead Analyst
Autofacts
Friedrich-Ebert-Anlage 35-37
60327 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 69 9585 6269
christoph.stuermer@de.pwc.com
PwC Autofacts ® 202 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Autofacts – Capabilities
A full suite of industry tools to meet real-life business challenges
Autofacts ®
Forecast Analyst Briefings Analyst Notes Autofacts App Custom Analysis
Light Vehicle Global & Regional Global & Regional Downloadable Custom Deliverable
Quarterly Online Access Quarterly Online Access Monthly Online Access Monthly Interactive Data On Demand Tailored Data
• Key Industry Issues • Multimedia • M&A Valuation Support
• Assembly • Market Outlook
• Analysis & Data • Press Releases • Industry Studies
• Capacity • Special Topics in Focus
• Sign-up at • Interactive • Portfolio Risk Analysis
• Powertrain Consumption • Key Issues & Megatrends www.autofacts.com Charts & Data • Sales / Segment
• Bodystyle • Available on the App Store
PwC Autofacts ® 212 Industry Transformation Scenarios
Autofacts – Methodology
Providing a complete and detailed industry outlook
Macroeconomic Market Disruptive
Industry Data
Metrics Intelligence Events
• Unemployment • Sales • Sector Trends • Natural Disasters
• GDP • Inventory • Industry Knowledge • Product Recalls
• Housing • Assembly History • Competitive Landscape • Mergers & Acquisitions
• Consumer Confidence • Incentives • Product Planning • Consumer Perception
The collective knowledge and
Utilising proprietary forecasting
Autofacts
experience of Autofacts is leveraged
methodology, Autofacts sales & ®
to finalize forecast assumptions that
assembly balancers track & weigh
serve as a building block for our
numerous industry variables.
product & service offerings.
Forecast Analyst Briefings Analyst Notes Autofacts App Custom Analysis
PwC Autofacts ® 223 Autofacts – Mission
Autofacts – Mission
Dedicated to the Automotive Industry
Autofacts. Anytime. Anywhere.
The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within the PwC Data Analytics Organisation. All material contained in this report was
developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm’s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of information provided, no
representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of
investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability
of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document.
©2015 PwC. All rights reserved. “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of
which is a separate and independent legal entity.
PwC Autofacts ® 23You can also read
