Automotive Connected Mobility Overview - Fisita World Summit - November 2019 S
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Automotive Connected Mobility Overview
S
Fisita World Summit - November 2019
AGENDA
• Car Sharing
Mobility Services • Ride Hailing
• Micromobility
Outlook • Consumer Behavior
OUR APPROACHES AT A GLANCE
October 2019 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 2
AUTOMOTIVE CONNECTED MOBILITY
CARSHARING – REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Asia Eastern Europe North America Western Europe Australia South America Africa
Largest market in Nearly 37K Approx. 27K Largest operator Least current Approx. 1,800 Currently only in
the world, has vehicles vehicles in the is BMW/Daimler potential growth cars in the region two countries
over 208K Most growth is region JV with over 14K out of the five Ride hailing has Approx. 60+
vehicles through Russia, Largest vehicles major regions dominated the vehicles
Largest operator Russia High operators are First region to First free-floating region Newest planned
is GoFun in China growth Zipcar & have car sharing service in region entrant is VW
China is the potential, largest BMW/Daimler Significant just launched with its Move
largest market in op is Delimobil in (Share Now) growth in some Just over 5,000 brand in Rwanda
the region Russia Still growth countries is vehicles in region Low growth
potential in possible potentail
markets without
car sharing
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 3
AUTOMOTIVE CONNECTED MOBILITY
CARSHARING – FORECAST OVERVIEW
Fleet Size Growth Expectations
• South America has the most growth potential, at a forecasted CAGR of 13% over the next 10 years, but the size of the current
market is very small. Eastern Europe is the next fastest growing, at a 10-year CAGR of 12.6%, but is much larger, making up 11.07%
of the global car sharing fleet compared with 0.53% of the global car sharing fleet for South America.
• Western Europe seeing slightly higher growth expectations due to higher OEM service launches, ex: VW in Berlin, PSA
(Free2Move) & Renault (Moov’in) in Paris
Operators Searching for Membership Growth
• New service ideas have been launched recently, ex: Zipcar’s Commuter Package (monthly subscription for use of car-share
vehicles), Communauto’s FLEX program (30-minute usage, no registration required)
• Free-floating services have seen higher membership growth rates, but in developed markets some F-F services have failed (e.g.
car2go in U.S. market)
• Emerging markets like Brazil and Morocco struggle with license confirmation – hurts membership growth
Some Operators are Making a Profit
• Some carsharing operators are profitable, unlike ride hailing and two-wheel sharing, ex: Cambio, Communauto, Park24 (corporate
customer growth, membership growth, parking dominance in Japan), etc. – many Asian operators are on road to profit
• Carsharing is the oldest mobility service – operators have had time to perfect business models
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 4
CAR SHARING MARKETS
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Percentage of Carsharing Market Revenue by Region
Africa 0.01% Regions Driving Global
Western Europe Growth
24.58% • Asia and Eastern Europe are
expected to drive international
growth over the next 5-10 years
South America • Asia has experienced some
0.48% pullback, but the overall growth
Asia trend is still positive.
Other 49.62% • Many major Asian and Eastern
0.02% European countries are
promoting the use of carsharing
through regulations
North America
14.41% • Launches in Eastern Europe have
been the most frequent around
the world, also some of the
Eastern Europe Australasia
largest
8.36% 2.52%
AFRICA ASIA AUSTRALASIA EASTERN EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA OTHER SOUTH AMERICA WESTERN EUROPE
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 5
OEM CAR SHARING EFFORTS
MARKET CHANGES
BMW shut down ReachNow in the U.S. as a result of the merger between Share Now – Part of Your Now
BMW’s and Daimler’s mobility service groups. Your Now’s new car sharing service is called Share Now.
The company has partnered with Vulog for the back
end, having ended its relationship with RideCell in the
U.S. market. At this time Your Nowis transitioning its
car2go brand under the Share Now brand in the U.S.
Daimler shut down car2go operations entirely in China. The market.
company has merged car2go with BMW’s DriveNow in the new
Your Now joint venture.
Maven – Challenging Road Ahead
GM’s Maven car sharing organization has reduced the
number of cities it currently operates in, from 17 to 9.
GM has reduced its Maven operations, shut down its Book by GM’s Maven Gig short-term rental service for ride-hail
Cadillac subscription service (a 2.0 version is in development), and drivers continues to operate.
has moved its Cruise Automation on-demand, autonomous ride-
hailing launch timeline to an indefinite future date.
WeShare – Major Launch in Europe
Volkswagen’s We Share service launched with 1,500 e-
Golf vehicles in Berlin. The OEM plans to add 500 e-Up!
Volkswagen has launched its mobility services brand, Volkswagen “We.” And ID.3 models to its fleet in 2020. Plans to expand to
Under this umbrella the company’s car sharing service is WeShare. Hambug and then outside Germany to the Czech
Republic (Prague) , via Skoda brand.
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 6
AUTOMOTIVE CONNECTED MOBILITY
RIDE HAILING – MAJOR OPERATORS AND MARKET SIZE
# of Markets # of Markets Total Active Gross Bookings Gross Revenue Revenue MKT. Global Ride Hailing Forecast – Top-Line Stats
(Countries) Dominated Drivers, Est. (US$), Est. (US$), Est. Share (World)
Gross bookings of $112B in 2018 $200B by 2023
24M + active drivers on the road, over half in China
Over one-billion active users worldwide
Cabify & Easy Taxi
Yandex.Taxi Grab
Go-Jek
Careem (Uber) OTHER
Bolt (Taxify)
Ola Didi Chuxing
Lyft
Uber
Didi Chuxing Uber Lyft
Ola Bolt (Taxify) Careem (Uber)
Go-Jek Yandex.Taxi Grab
Cabify & Easy Taxi OTHER
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 7
CONNECTED MOBILITY
BIKE SHARING VS. SCOOTER SHARING
Dockless Bike Sharing
• Sees an average of between 0.75 – 2 rides per day per bike – much higher costs than docked sharing
• Electric bikes see higher usage, on average, between 1-2 trips per day
Docked Bike Sharing
• Less usage than dockless sharing, seeing averages of between 0.4 – 1.5 trips per day per bike
• Much less costly than dockless systems – no need for rebalancing, longer bike lifespans
Dockless Scooter Sharing
• Has by-far the highest usage rate in micro-mobility, sees 5-9 trips per day per scooter on average
• Also has the highest costs – charging, rebalancing, scooter replacement, etc.
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 8
CONNECTED MOBILITY
TWO-WHEEL FORECAST OVERVIEW
Markets Included Market Size Regulatory Challenges
• Over 150 cities in preliminary • Market includes a total fleet size • Issues with micro-mobility are
forecast between North of over 130,000 scooters and the most visible out of all
America, Australia and Western bikes mobility services – cluttered
Europe • Estimating the market size at sidewalks, large amount of
• Largest markets are on the West just under $400M (USD) on an injuries
Coast of the US and in large annual basis • Electric scooters already are
Western European cities such as banned in numerous markets
Paris • Some operators have taken a
guerilla marketing approach
November 11, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 9
CONNECTED MOBILITY EXPERIENCES
Research on Consumer
Connected Mobility Experiences
Large Economics
Objects
Use Shopping
Availability
Cases Convenience
Pets to
the Vet Perceived Factors Simplicity
• The Shared Safety
Experience Comfortable
• Mobility Use Cases Selection
App Use
Criteria
• Pain Points Clean
• Competitive
1st Mile/
Options
Last Mile Billing
• Perceptions
Confidential and Proprietary 10EXPLORING TRANSPORT MODALITIES IN MILLENNIAL URBANITES
Seattle Milton Keynes Shenzhen
Regular commute or daily trip Car / Public Transport Car Pub. Transp. / Ride-Hail / Car
Grocery store for 5 small items Walk Walk Walk
Meet friends at night Car / Ride-Hailing Car / Ride-Hailing Ride-Hailing
Transport large items Car / Car-sharing Car / Car-sharing Car
Transport Kids to activity Car Car Car / Ride-Hailing
Weekend trip Car Car Car / Public Transport
Go to/from airport Public Transport Pub. Transp. / Ride-Hailing Pub. Transp. / Ride-Hailing
Outdoor activity with gear Car Car Car
Muddy activity Car Car Ride-Hailing
Work day interruption Car Car Ride-Hailing
Local business trip (alone) Car / Public Transport Car / Public Transport Pub. Transp. / Ride-Hailing
Local business trip (colleagues) Car Car Car / Ride-Hailing
Related Report: Millennials’ Choice of Car or Transit Mode is Driven by Cost and UsabilityEXPLORING TRANSPORT MODALITIES IN MILLENNIAL URBANITES
Availability Cost Time Experience
• Extent to which the modality is • Public transport or ride-sharing • Difference in journey duration • First-mile and last-mile
available when and where the service fees vs costs of • Total journey time factoring in convenience
user needs it ownership for personal vehicle congestion and parking • Comfort factors: Vehicle
• Simplicity of Inter-Connection – • Parking costs at destination and • Level of urgency condition, attention from
between different modalities and congestion charging impact branding, personal safety etc.
within the same modality choice on a per-trip basis
“I don’t use car- “If the journey was “I don’t use Car2Go.
“You might get stuck “If it’s raining or late The cars are always
sharing services “I could take a bus going to be half an
“Compared to the in traffic if you’re at night, I’ll take an filthy inside.”
because I can pick it and a train then get “If it costs $14 to hour longer by public
cost of gas, train taking a DiDi to the Uber or Lyft even
up outside my home an Uber, but it park somewhere, transport, I would “I don’t want to
tickets or an Uber airport. The tube is though I could take a
but often where I seems too much taking an Uber is a take an Uber. If it drive round the city
are more expensive most reliable; you bus. If I’m tired I just
want to drop the car hassle, so I generally no-brainer” was five minutes with an advert for
in most situations” know that you won’t want to be dropped
off is outside of the just drive” difference, I would the company on the
miss your flight” at my door”
coverage area” take the train” side of the car”LEVELS OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE
• Level 0 = no integration. Separate services are provided for different means of transport.
• Level 1 = integration of information. Travel information is provided through (multi-modal) travel
planners, which may or may not include information on routes and costs. Level 1 facilitates the
choice regarding the time of day, the route, or the mode of transport to be used.
• Level 2 = integration of finding, booking, and payment. MaaS facilitates the finding, booking, and
payment of individual trips. U sers can find, book, and pay for their trip at a single service point (e.g.,
through an app with a pre-registered credit card).
• Level 3 = integration of transport services into passes and bundles. MaaS does not just cover
individual travel movements; the service also meets the full daily mobility needs of individuals and
families by offering different means of transport through bundles and/or passes. Offers users an
alternative covering all their daily mobility requirements. Also constitutes an alternative for
individual car ownership.
• Level 4 = integration of societal goals. MaaS extends beyond liaising between the demand for and
supply of mobility. Supply and demand are now combined with social goals such as reducing the use
of cars or promoting liveability in the cities.
13MAAS EXAMPLES
14COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Car
Makers
Rental
Startups
Car Cos.
15AUTOMAKER VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTION PROGRAMS
Automakers are launching
subscription programs, similar
to leases without mileage limits
that also bundle insurance.
• These programs typically offer
a selection of vehicles for a
monthly fee.
Care by Volvo
• Premium brands (e.g. Volvo, Porsche Passport
Porsche, BMW) have been
more active in launching
these programs.
• U.S. automaker Ford had
been active, but sold its
Canvas program to Fair in Sep.
2019.
Access by BMW
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 16AUTOMAKER SUBSCRIPTION CAR USAGE PROGRAMS
Automaker Program Name Details
Audi Audi Select USD $995 per month for Core Collection tier, includes S3, S4, Q5 SUV and TT; USD $1,395 per month for Premiere
Collection tier, included more Audi models and 2 car swaps per month. Includes insurance, maintenance, and
roadside assistance, with unlimited mileage. Fuel is the only out of pocket expense.
BMW Access USD $1,099 per month for the entry level service, including 5 vehicles; USD $1399 per month for the Legend service,
including four vehicles; USD $2,699 per month for the BMW M service which includes five vehicles. All have
unlimited car swaps.
Ford Canvas (Sold to Fair in Sept. 2019) Offered 1 – 12 month subscription terms. Pricing started at USD $379 per month (USD $50 subscription plus USD
$329 for vehicle) to USD $660. Included insurance. Sold in September of 2019 to Fair.
GM Book by Cadillac U.S. operations closed in 2018 (still operates in Munich and Zurich). Before shutting down it required a USD $500
enrollment fee and USD $1,800 per month for the service, which included all fuel, maintenance, and insurance (USD
$1,000 deductible). No terms or minimum subscription period and up to 18 swaps per year.
JLR Carpe USD $1,200 for E-Pace SUV or up to USD $2,200 per month for Range Rover Sport HSE. Insurance, tax, cleaning, and
servicing all included. No deposit necessary and 2 swaps per year. Available in the UK.
Mercedes-Benz Mercedes-Benz Collection USD $495 application fee. USD $1,595 per month for Reserve Tier which includes four models; $2,995 per month for
Premier Tier, which includes four models. Offers concierge service for last minute swap requests. Includes cleaning,
fuel and insurance upon delivery.
Porsche Passport USD $2,000 per month provides access to 9 Porsche models. USD $3,000 per month provides access to 22 Porsche
models. Vehicle taxes, insurance, registration, maintenance, and detailing are covered by this fee. Fuel is separate.
Uses Clutch Technologies’ platform as back-end.
Volvo Care USD $700-800 per month to rent a Volvo (7 models available). Price includes maintenance, insurance, and cleaning.
No terms or minimum subscription period. USD $500 deposit which is applied to first months fee. Only 1 swap every
12 months.
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 17THIRD-PARTY VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTION PROGRAMS
Beyond These new business models are as-yet unproven.
automakers, Prices are constantly changing with most services
increasing their rates over the last year.
startups in the
U.S., Europe,
India and Third-party services face competition from
automakers but have the advantage of being able
elsewhere are to offer customers a range of makes and models.
launching in
this emerging
Programs are tiered, offering mid-range and
market premium vehicles. Some focus on one tier
segment. specifically (e.g. Revolve).
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 18THIRD-PARTY VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTION PROGRAMS
Company Details Pricing
FreshCar (formerly Monthly vehicle subscription program. Currently working with Ford Mobility 3 Pricing Tiers:
Carma) and Honda (part of TechStars). Includes insurance and maintenance. Does 500 miles: USD $499/month (+40 cents per mile beyond the limit)
not include fuel. Currently offers Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Dodge, and Ford 800 miles: USD $549/month (+40 cents per mile beyond the limit)
models. Mobile app for selecting available cars. Also has a B2B offerings and 1,200 miles: USD $599month (+40 cents per mile beyond the limit)
strategic consulting for dealerships, insurance companies, auto finance firms.
Clutch Technologies Provides subscription platform for Porsche Passport, Mercedes-Benz Pricing determined by program partners. Ex: Tom Masano Auto Group was the
Collection, and Access by BMW. Acquired by Cox Automotive. first dealer to use Clutch Subscription for used vehicle platform, with the lowest
price category set at USD $300 to access Honda Civics, Toyota Camrys and Ford
F-150s. The highest category goes to USD $700+ for BMW 6 series and Porsche
911.
DreamShare High-end/luxury vehicle fractional ownership and rental model. Somewhat 3 Pricing Tiers:
resembles a time share. Titanium: USD $18K to join, USD $20K in rental credit
Elite: USD $28K to join, USD $35K in rental credit
Diamond: USD $49K to join, USD $70K in rental credit
Fair Provides monthly vehicle leasing service. Recently acquired Ford’s Canvas Pricing varies widely depending on vehicle. Vary between USD $180 per month
and Uber’s Xchange Leasing. Users can pick from 40 makes and models. for the Nissan Versa Note S, all the way up to USD $1,210 for the Corvette Z06
Requires a “Start Payment” and has three-day/100 mile return policy. 3LZ.
Hertz My Car Pilot program in Austin, TX and Atlanta, GA. Offers unlimited mileage but Starting at USD $999 for full sedans and extends up to USD $1,399 for larger
there is no concierge service. SUVs, full-size trucks, and luxury sedans.
Revolve High-end/luxury car subscription with concierge service (pickup and USD $1,500 to $2,600 per month.
delivery).
Switch by Revv Car subscription service in select services in India. USD $250-750 per month
Wagonex Monthly vehicle subscription program based in the UK. USD $460– 900 per month (includes VAT), depending on vehicle.
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 19B2C/B2B CAR CARE SERVICES
An ecosystem of app-enabled, on-
demand vehicle service providers is
emerging in response to changing
consumer and business needs.
• Most offer services to consumers
and fleet customers.
• The majority are regional startups
with limited geographic coverage.
• This will be a fragmented,
competitive market for many years.
• Opportunity is mainly in the fleet
space rather than the B2C market.
Source: Washos Source: Yoshi
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 20B2C/B2B CAR CARE SERVICES
Car Care Companies Overview Link
Booster App-enabled on-demand refueling for consumers and fleets. https://www.trybooster.com/
Filld App-enabled on-demand refueling for consumers. https://www.filld.com/
Mobile Fuel Subscription-based, mobile fuel delivery. Also performs basic safety https://www.mobilefuel.me/
inspection. For consumers or fleets.
Neighborhood Fuel App-enabled on-demand refueling for consumers and fleets. https://neighborhoodfuel.com/
RideKleen Mobile car wash company that provides cleaning, detailing, logistics and http://www.ridekleen.com/
light maintenance for fleets.
Spiffy App-enabled on-demand car wash and maintenance service providing https://www.getspiffy.com/
services like oil changes, detailing, air filter replacement, and pet hair
removal.
Washos App-enabled, on-demand mobile car wash and detaling service. Located https://www.washos.com/
in southern California.
Yoshi App-enabled on-demand fuel, car washes, oil changes, and related http://www.startyoshi.com/
11 November, 2019 maintenance services for fleets and consumers.
Strategy Analytics, Inc 21AUTOMAKER MOBILITY SERVICE OFFERINGS
Gradually, car makers across the globe have begun focusing on mobility programs. These programs are a
response to changing customer demands. This has forced many brands to rethink their business lines and
partnerships. Mobility has become—and will remain– a huge focus for automakers going forward, with some
automakers starting robust corporate strategies directly aimed at capturing a piece of this burgeoning market.
Source: General Motors Media Source: Sunfleet Media
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 22AUTOMAKER MOBILITY SERVICES SUMMARY
The Race to AV Ride Hailing is On
• Automakers provide the cars for the fleet, but they need two other things: the AV technology and a service provider.
• These two components are both available through partnerships, acquisitions or in-house R&D.
Where are the Non-Luxury Car Subscriptions?
• Only Ford’s Canvas service provided non-luxury vehicle subscriptions.
• Other automakers should be getting in on the service soon (FCA’s Jeep programs).
Automakers Choosing Sides in the Ride Hailing Market
• While most automakers have partnered with one ride hailing service, others like Daimler, Toyota & General Motors have been backing two or more.
• These partnerships will have a huge impact on who supplies the fleet for autonomous vehicles.
Everyone is Getting in on Car Sharing or Bus-Based Car Pooling, Why?
• Fleet management will become a huge need once driver’s are removed from cars.
• Understanding this starts with running your own fleet, so many OEMs are investing in companies for data collection on fleet management.
The New Automotive Silicon Valley
• Automakers are investing and acquiring more companies than ever before.
• The auto market is changing and the mobility service space is emerging; car makers need to find new ways to make money.
• Expect further increases in the amount of partnerships, pooled investments, and mega-deals by OEMs looking to build economies of scale and save on in-
house R&D.
11 November, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 23You can also read
