Bård Bjølgerud The Nordic real estate market - Pangea Property Partners - FIRST fondene
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Pangea Property Partners
Bård Bjølgerud The Nordic real estate market
CEO & Partner
FIRST FONDENE, JANUARY 2020
TABLE OF CONTENT
Highlights
Macroeconomic Overview
Overall macroeconomic outlook arguing a strong real estate
market in 2020 and onwards
Slight drop in European transaction activity but new record year in Nordic Transaction Market
the Nordics (EUR 46bn, up 5 % from 2018)
Continued strong inflow of foreign capital to the Nordics, driven by
weak local currencies and plenty of “dry powder” Norwegian Transaction Market
Strong listed Nordic property sector – Swedish listed property
companies (1Y return: 57 %) and logistics (1Y return: 104 %)
outperforming The Nordic Listed Sector
Historically high premium to NAV – almost 40% above EPRA NAV
on average (based on Q3-19)
Property Segments
A wave of sizeable takeovers and IPOs in the current market
Downward pressure on retail property values, driven by negative
rent expectations and large risk premiums
2
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Pangea in 20 seconds
NO. 1 IN 7 CATEGORIES
+450
projects
in the Nordics 2010–2019
HELSINKI
OSLO
+10 years
+330bn
SEK
STOCK HOLM
total deal volume 2010–2019
SEK
730m PANGEA OFFICES
average deal-size +35 In Finland, Pangea collaborates with Mrec Oy
dedicated employees
LONDON
3
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Pangea Research Full Nordic research coverage with a broad range of reports
LEADING NORDIC PROPERTY RESEARCH
Large Pan-Nordic research team closely following the Nordic region from a Pangea Weekly Pangea Monthly Pangea Outlooks
property and capital market perspective
A broad array of research reports that can be subscribed at our website for free
(see examples to the right)
Access to significant proprietary data, including listed sector coverage (Main list
and First North) and our PREX index family
Prestige clients such as e.g. the Swedish Riksbank, the Swedish Financial
Authority, the International Monetary Fund, major property owners, etc.
Brand new hotel research launched in August 2018, unique for the Nordic market
Pangea Listed Overview Pangea Hotel Monthly Special Reports
SELECTED RESEARCH PARTNERS & CLIENTS
SEPREF
Sign up for free at pangeapartners.se/analys
4
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Macroeconomic Overview
55
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Market size The Nordics – one of the largest property markets in Europe
Nordics
POPULATION EU Nordics % of EU
EU
Other
Total 2019 (million) 511 27 5%
5Y forecast (% p.a.) +0.1% 0.6% -
ECONOMY
GDP 2019 (EURbn) 16,447 1,408 9%
5Y forecast (% p.a.) 1.6% 1.7% -
PROPERTY MARKET
Trans. volume 2019 (EURbn) 290 46 16%
Annual turnover (10Y) 2.5% 4.7% -
STOCK MARKET1)
Total market value (EURbn) 12,370 1,540 12%
CRE market value (EURbn) 444 73 14%
1) All developed markets in Europe (Sep-19) Source: Pangea Research, IMF, EPRA
6
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Nordic Transaction Market
77
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Transaction volumes New Nordic record set in 2019 with a volume above EUR 45bn
NORDIC TRANSACTION MARKET OVERVIEW (2019) NORDIC TRANSACTION VOLUMES (2007-2019)
50
45
EUR 22.2bn 40
+46% from 2018
400 deals
35
+5% from 2018
30
EURbn
25
EUR 9.7bn
+3% from 2018 Finland 20
258 deals
-5% from 2018 15
Norway
10
Sweden
5
EUR 6.9bn Denmark EUR 6.6bn
-24% from 2018 -22% from 2018
0
174 deals 215 deals
+15% from 2018 +19% from 2018 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark
Source: Pangea Research, based on deals above EUR 5m
8
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Foreign investors EUR 3.8bn of net foreign capital inflow to the Nordics
FOREIGN NET INVESTMENTS – SWEDEN FOREIGN NET INVESTMENTS – NORWAY
30 50
20 40
10 30
NOKbn
SEKbn
0 20
-10 10
-20 0
-30 -10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
FOREIGN NET INVESTMENTS – FINLAND FOREIGN NET INVESTMENTS – DENMARK
6 25
5 20
4 15
DKKbn
EURbn
3 10
2 5
1 0
0 -5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Foreign acquisitions and divestments made up 34 % and 24 % respectively of the Nordic transaction volume in 2019
Source: Pangea Research, based on deals above EUR 5m
9
Market presentation Pangea Property Partners
Top-10 deals 2019 Cross-border deals made up 50% of the Nordic top-list last year
Buyer Asset(s) Est. value Cross-
# Date Buyer Seller Asset(s)
Country Country (LOCbn) border
1 Dec-19 SBB i Norden Shareholders Hemfosa SEK 39.8bn1
2 Sep-19 Vonovia Blackstone, etc. Hembla SEK 33.5bn1 √
3 Jun-19 Elo and Varma Elo and Varma Merger of Jumbo and Flamingo EUR 0.6bn
4 Oct-19 Whitehelm Capital Pioneer Pioneer Public Properties NOK 5.3bn √
5 Jan-19 Lilium Castellum Portfolio swap SEK 5.2bn
7 Apr-19 DNB Liv SBB i Norden DNB Bank’s HQ NOK 4.5bn √
6 Sep-19 KPA Areim Trygg-Hansa HQ SEK 4.3bn
8 Dec-19 Nyfosa Randviken Mixed portfolio SEK 4.2bn
9 Jun-19 Blackstone Corem Logistics and warehouse portfolio SEK 4.2bn √
10 Feb-19 Allianz, CBRE NRP Logistics portfolio SEK 4.0bn √
Top 10 (23% of total transaction volume) EUR 10.6bn
1) Underlying property value of entire company as per interim report Q3 2019 Source: Pangea Research
10
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersNorwegian Transaction Market
11
1
1
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersNorwegian transaction market Second highest volume ever of NOK 97bn
NORWEGIAN TRANSACTION VOLUME (2010-2019) TRANSACTION VOLUME BY SECTOR (2019)
140
Average: NOK 42bn Average: NOK 95bn
Other 9 %
120 Land/Development 13 %
100
Residential 5 % NOK Office 45 %
Hotel 3 % 97bn
10
80
NOKbn
Logistics/Industry 8 %
60 123 Retail 17 %
94 97
87
40 80 Volume Foreign buyers
No. of deals
72 (NOKbn) (%)
51 54 2019 258 97bn 22 %
20 43
36
2018 273 94bn 18 %
25
2017 302 87bn 22 %
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Volume Forecast
Source: Pangea Research, based on deals above EUR 5m
12
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersThe Nordic Listed Sector
13
1
3
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersLong-term performance Annual average PREX property return (incl. dividend) of 17 % (2000-2020YTD)
LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR – NORDICS
2400%
Overview PREX Property1) OSEBX
2000-2020 YTD 2,245 % 380 % PREX Property 1) OSEBX (Main index)
2000% CAGR (‘00-’20) 17 % 8%
Total returns, incl. dividends
1600%
+859%
1200%
800%
+542% -62%
400%
0%
+171% -64% +389%
-400%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figures as of January 27th 2020
1) Property index of Nordic property companies Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Reuters
14
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersNordic real estate equity markets PREX Sweden country winner and strong logistics rush
NORDIC EQUITY MARKETS (LAST 3Y) NORDIC EQUITY SEGMENTS (LAST 3Y)
130% 300%
PREX Sweden PREX Logistics
1Y 1Y return: 57 % 1Y 1Y return: 104 %
3Y return: 134 % 3Y return: 278 %
110% 250%
PREX Property
1Y return: 54 %
3Y return: 118 %
90% 200%
70% 150% PREX Office
PREX Norway 1Y return: 46 %
1Y return: 31 % 3Y return: 118 %
3Y return: 56 %
50% 100% PREX Residential
OMX Nordic 1Y return: 56 %
1Y return: 29 % 3Y return: 112 %
3Y return: 51 %
30% 50% PREX Retail
1Y return: 29 %
3Y return: 31 %
PREX
10% 0% Construction
1Y return: 38 %
3Y return: 14 %
-10% -50%
Figures as of January 27th 2020 Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Research
15
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersNordic listed property market size Total market cap of over NOK 780bn across the Nordics
MARKET CAP BY COMPANY
M. Cap / 1Y change (%)
90 No. of companies
X = Recent listings (Last 12M) NOK ~643bn / +57 %
80
#26
70 NOK ~63bn / +61 %
#3
60
NOK ~54bn / +31 %
50 #3
NOK ~22bn / +48 %
NOKbn
40
#3
30
NOK ~781bn / +54 %
20 X X #35
10 X X X
0
Figures as of January 27th 2020 Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Research
16 16
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersValuation P / EPRA NAV increased by 34 % in the Nordics last year (P / EPRA NAV = 140 %)
3.0x
X X
X = Recent listings (Last 12M)
2.6x Weighted average
P / EPRA NAV Norway
1.4x 0.8x 1.3x 1.6x 1.4x
2.2x
1.8x X
X
1.4x X
1.0x
0.6x
0.2x
Figures as of January 27th 2020 Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Reuters, Company reports
17 17
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersForward ratios EBITDA yield around 3.9 % (sample of 20 Nordic real estate companies)
EBITDA YIELD (2020F) 1 OPERATING CF YIELD (2020F) 1 DIVIDEND YIELD (2020F) 1
Olav Thon
Pandox
Nyfosa
Citycon
SBB
Hemfosa
Kungsleden
Entra
Castellum
Norwegian Property
Catena
Sagax
Kojamo
Balder
Klövern
Atrium Ljungberg
Corem
Fabege EBITDA yield (median) CF yield (median) Dividend yield (median)
Wallenstam 3.9 % 3.7 % 2.2 %
Hufvudstaden
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12%
1) Sample of selected Nordic real estate companies. Analysts consensus for 2020.
EBITDA yield based on Enterprise value, Operating CF Yield and Dividend yield on market capitalization Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Reuters
18
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersReturn on equity Conceptual calculations before tax (Sweden and Norway)
SWEDEN (CONCEPTUAL ROE, BEFORE TAX) NORWAY (CONCEPTUAL ROE, BEFORE TAX)
12.0 % 12.0 %
10.0 % 10.0 %
Assumptions Assumptions
8.0 % 55 % LTV 8.0 % 55 % LTV
4.4 %
All-in interest rate 2.0 % All-in interest rate 3.5 % 3.1 %
6.0 % 6.0 %
10.0 % 2.1 %
1.7 %
9.1 %
4.0 % 4.0 %
6.0 %
5.6 %
2.0 % 3.9 % 2.0 % 3.9 %
0.0 % 0.0 %
EBITDA CPI / Growth Unlev. returns, Positive Lev. returns, EBITDA CPI / Growth Unlev. returns, Positive Lev. returns,
yield before tax leverage before tax yield before tax leverage before tax
*) CPI based on IMF’s 2020-2024 forecast
19
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersWhy invest in listed real estate? Attractive risk-adjusted returns despite surge in stock prices
LISTED REAL ESTATE STILL ATTRACTIVE?
Safe haven and good risk-adjusted returns
Liquid and transparent market
Both running cash-flow and predictable future cash-flow
Inflation hedge
Attractive financing and prospects of sustained low interest rates
Rent increase upside
Accretive acquisitions – the share premium is a valuable currency:
– Single assets, portfolios and other companies
Accretive development projects:
– Often a significant portion of the portfolio
20
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersProperty Segments
21
2
1
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersOslo office market – Last 20 years Office market tends to follow the business cycles closely
DEVELOPMENT IN OSLO PRIME OFFICE
6 000 130
Strong office Strong office Strong office Strong office
market market market market
5 000 110
Yield: 7.50% Yield: 6.50% Yield: 6.20%
Rent/sqm: NOK 2,500 Rent/sqm: NOK 2,025 Rent/sqm: NOK 2,700
Value/sqm: NOK 31,000 Value/sqm: NOK 29,000 Value/sqm: NOK 40,000
Gross rent per sqm (NOK/sqm)
4 000 90
Value per sqm (NOK ‘000)
3 000 70
2 000 50
1 000 30
Yield: 5.50% Yield: 4.25% Yield: 3.75%
Rent/sqm: NOK 3,600 Rent/sqm: NOK 3,800 Rent/sqm: NOK 4,900
Value/sqm: NOK 60,000 Value/sqm: NOK 82,000 Value/sqm: NOK 120,000
0 10
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Gross rent (l.a.) Value (r.a.)
Source: Pangea Research, Dagens Næringsliv – Eiendomspanelet
22
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersOslo and Stockholm office markets Values driven by rental growth the coming years
OSLO PRIME RENT AND YIELD DEVELOPMENT
190 7.0 %
2017 2018 2019 2020E
Prime yield (%) 3.75 % 3.80 % 3.75 % 3.75 % 180 6.5 %
+7 %
Prime rent (NOK/sqm) 4,250 4,500 4,900 5,250 170 6.0 %
Total vacancy (%) 7.10 % 6.20 % 5.60 % 6.00 % +19 %
160 5.5 %
+12 %
Prime rent (index 100 = 2010)
Inner city vacancy (%) 4.40 % 4.20 % 3.50 % 3.80 %
150 5.0 %
Value/sqm (NOK)1) 98,000 109,000 120,000 129,000
Prime yield (%)
140 4.5 %
STOCKHOLM +17 %
130 4.0 %
2017 2018 2019 2020E
120 3.5 %
Prime yield (%) 3.40 % 3.35 % 3.25 % 3.25 %
110 3.0 %
Prime rent (SEK/sqm)2) 6,300 6,800 7,100 7,300
Total vacancy (%) 7.60 % 7.60 % 8.00 % 9.00 % 100 2.5 %
Inner city vacancy (%) 2.25 % 2.25 % 2.75 % 3.00 % 90 2.0 %
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 19 '20E
Value/sqm (SEK)1) 145,000 150,000 155,000 160,000
Oslo prime rent Stockholm prime rent
Oslo prime yield Stockholm prime yield
1) Assumed owner’s cost of 8 % of GRI, 2) Rents per NLA converted to rents per GLA for comparability Source: Pangea Research, Dagens Næringsliv – Eiendomspanelet
23
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersPrime yield breakdown Comparison of prime office in the Scandinavian capitals
PRIME OFFICE (JAN-19) PRIME OFFICE (JAN-20)
4.0% 4.0%
0.48% 0.43%
3.0% 3.0%
2.08%
Yield gap 1.40% 1.50% 1.93% Yield gap 1.50% 2.25%
1.49% 2.00%
Bank margin Bank margin
5Y swap 2.0% 5Y swap 2.0%
1.50%
1.0% 1.50% 1.0% 1.50%
1.82% 1.50% 1.82%
1.50% 1.50%
0.45% 0.32%
0.17% 0.26%
0.0% 0.0%
Stockholm Oslo Helsinki Copenhagen Stockholm Oslo Helsinki Copenhagen
Prime yield 3.35 % 3.80 % 3.60 % 3.90 % Prime yield 3.25 % 3.75 % 3.50 % 3.75 %
LTV 60 % 60 % 60 % 60 % LTV 60 % 60 % 60 % 60 %
Cash-on-cash 5.5 % 4.5 % 6.5 % 7.0 % Cash-on-cash 5.5 % 4.4 % 6.5 % 7.1 %
Price, EUR / sqm ~14,000 ~11,000 ~8,000 ~6,500 Price, EUR / sqm ~15,000 ~12,500 ~10,000 ~7,000
Smallest yield gap in Norway due to higher interest rate that needs to be compensated by rental growth
Notes: (1) As of January 27th 2020, (2) Pre-amortization, (3) Sales prices in secondary market
24
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersSummary
Nordic real estate very attractive in a global context
Plenty of capital (“wall of equity”), no change around the corner
Lack of sizable investments; increasing M&A activity
Interest rate drop making real estate cheap(er) – record large yield gap
Office: a safe haven next 2-3 years, then what…?
Retail: Higher risk, rents expected to decrease
Logistics: Strong logistics rush – no signs of slowing down
Large and liquid property market offering opportunities
25
2
5
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersAppendix
26
2
6
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersNordic overview Overall outlook arguing a strong real estate market in 2020 and onwards
GDP GROWTH FORECAST (2019-2024F) POPULATION FORECAST (2019-2024F)
2.5 % 1.0%
2.0 % 0.8%
1.5 % 0.6%
1.0 % 0.4%
0.5 % 0.2%
0.0 % 0.0%
Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Nordics Eurozone Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Nordics Eurozone
2019F 2020F-2024F 2019F 2020F-2024F
UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST (2019-2024F) INFLATION FORECAST (2019-2024F)
10.0% 2.5%
8.0% 2.0%
6.0% 1.5%
4.0% 1.0%
2.0% 0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Nordics Eurozone Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Nordics Eurozone
2019 2020F-2024F 2019 2020F-2024F
Source: Pangea Research, IMF, Thomson Reuters
27
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersTransaction activity Transaction volumes vs. deal count show different “market temperatures”
TRANSACTION VOLUME LAST 5Y (ROLLING 12M) NO. OF DEALS LAST 5Y (ROLLING 12M)
25 600
Norrporten /
Hembla / Vonovia
Castellum
Hemfosa / SBB
500
20
400
15
No. of deals
EURbn
Sektor / Sponda /
Citycon Blackstone 300
10
200
5
100
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Sweden Norway Finland Denmark
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Pangea Research, based on deals above EUR 5m
28
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersNorwegian transactions 2019 Active transaction market in all deal sizes
No. of transactions: 258
Transaction volume: NOK ~97bn Norwegian part
of Hemfosa
Average transaction size: NOK ~374m portfolio
DNB-
building
50 100 200 400 800 1 600 3 200 6 400 12 800
Smaller Mid range Large
151 transactions (59 %) 85 transactions (33 %) 22 transactions (9 %)
< NOK 200m NOK 200 – 800m > NOK 800m Source: Pangea Research
29 29
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersListed property companies Historically high premium to NAV – almost 40% above EPRA NAV on average
PRICE / EPRA NAV BY COUNTRY VALUATION VS LEVERAGE IN SWEDEN
1.8x 3.0x
1.6x 1.6x R² = 41%
1.4x
1.4x 2.5x
1.4x
1.3x
1.2x
2.0x
P/EPRA NAV
1.0x
0.8x
0.8x
1.5x
0.6x
0.4x
1.0x
0.2x
0.0x 0.5x
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Nordic 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
Figures as of January 27th 2020 Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Reuters, Company reports
30 30
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersM&A activity A wave of sizeable takeovers and IPOs in the current market
SECTOR VALUATION AND M&A ACTIVITY (2014 -2019)
1.3x
Aedifica’s bid on Hoivatilat (FI) SBB’s bid on Hemfosa (SE)
16% premium on closing price 23% premium on closing price
EUR ~0.6bn SEK ~40bn
1.2x
Oscar Properties (SE) Solon Eiendom (NO) Hoivatilat (FI) Kojamo (FI) Brinova (SE) K2A (SE)
SEK 0.5bn NOK 1.5bn EUR 0.2bn SEK 4.9bn SEK 3.4bn SEK 3.3bn
1.1x
Magnolia (SE) John Mattson (SE)
PRICE / EPRA NAV
Entra (NO) SBB (SE)
NOK 32bn SEK 7.5bn SEK 3.2bn* SEK 6.1bn
1.0x
Stendörren (SE) Nyfosa (SE)
SEK 6.7bn SEK 15.4bn
0.9x
Vonovia’s bid on Hembla (SE)
Tribona 30% (SE) 12% premium on closing price
SEK 3.0bn
SEK ~34bn
0.8x
Hembla 50% (SE) Sponda 100% (FI)
Stendörren 41% (SE)
SEK 9.4bn EUR 3.8bn
SEK 3.3bn
0.7x
Victoria Park 81% (SE) Technopolis 100% (FI)
LISTINGS TAKEOVERS SEK 12.5bn EUR 1.6bn
0.6x
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
'14 '14 '14 '14 '15 '15 '15 '15 '16 '16 '16 '16 '17 '17 '17 '17 '18 '18 '18 '18 '19 '19 '19 '19
Source: Pangea Research
31
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersM&A activity Examples of recent / ongoing takeovers and listings
Pending Pending Pending Jun 2019 (delisted)
• CEO: Caroline Arehult • CEO: Jussi Karjula • CEO: Svein Erik Lilleland • CEO: Per Ekelund
TAKEOVERS
• Geography: Nordic • Geography: Finland, Sweden • Geography: Sweden • Geography: Sweden
• Sector focus: Public properties • Sector focus: Public properties • Sector focus: Residentials • Sector focus: Residentials
• Buyer: SBB • Buyer: Aedifica • Buyer: Vonovia • Buyer: Vonovia
• Bid: Cash / shares (23% premium)
• Bid: Cash (16% premium) • Bid: Cash (12% premium) • Bid: Cash (20%)
SEK ~40bn EUR ~0.6bn SEK ~34bn SEK ~19bn
(property value) (property value) (property value) (property value)
2020 2020 Jun 2019 Jun 2019
• CEO: Michael Moschewitz • CEO: Jacob Karlsson • CEO: Johan Knaust • CEO: Siv Malmgren
• Geography: Stockholm, Uppsala • Geography: Southern Sweden • Geography: Sweden • Geography: Lidingö
LISTINGS
• Sector focus: Resi, commercial • Sector focus: Residentials • Sector focus: Residentials • Sector focus: Residentials
• Main owner: Mikael Bile (61%) • Main owners: Jacob Karlsson (50%), • Main owner: Johan Knaust (31%) • Main owner: Kerstin Skarne (36%)
Erik Selin (50%)
SEK ~4bn SEK ~4bn SEK ~4bn SEK ~6bn
(property value) (property value) (property value) (property value)
32
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersOwnership A few key players controlling most Swedish property companies (% of votes, Q3/Q4-19)
100%
Skandrenting ERIK SELIN K-Fastigheter FAM PAULSSON Backahill
63%
100% 50% FAM LJUNGBERG
Kunskapsporten 56% 6%
Erik Selin 41% Balder Skistar
Selin Fastig. 100% Fastigheter Skåne
Peab SBB 15% Tagehus
i Göteborg 50% Fabege
50%
50% 92%
Trenum Balder 50% Credentia
Första 10%
15% Wihlborgs
LG Gbg 30%
Runö
FAM SVENSSON 49% 33% 33% Fastigheter
Sinoma Tornet 11%
Diös
13%
50% John Mattson
Arvid Svensson Invest Tulia 50% 50%
Centur 30%
Catena 16%
54%
Sato (FI) 35% 43% K2A Fastigheter
Hemfosa Brinova 30%
56%
Serena (FI) 11%
91% RUTGER ARNHULT Castellum FAM LUNDBERG Atrium Ljungberg
SHH 20%
11% Bostad 93%
SBB M2 Asset 100% Fastighets AB
17% Management 14% L E Lundbergföretagen
L E Lundberg
100% 15% 45%
9% Agora Klövern Corem Sagax Sveavalvet 88%
Hufvudstaden
93% 100%
Tobin M2 100% 15%
FastPartner SSM Hemsö 13%
Properties Gruppen
NP3 Fastigheter Skanska
30% 85% 50% 20%
72%
Amasten Wäst-Bygg Söderport
20% 24%
Compactor 11% 24%
49% 25%
Fastigheter Sterner Emilshus Industrivärden
Kvalitena
Stenhus 27%
SVEN-OLOF 63% 100%
BoStad (DK) Heleonora MIKAEL ANDERSSON DAVID MINDUS
JOHANSSON
Ultimate owner Listed property company (Main list) Listed property company (First North) Unlisted property company
33
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersRetail market (1/2) Sluggish development in retail equities in recent years
TOTAL RETURN, RETAIL REAL ESTATE SECTOR (JAN-16 – JAN-20)
160%
PREX Property
120% 133 %
Atrium Ljungberg
103 %
80%
PREX Retail
43 %
40% Olav Thon
28 %
Citycon
0% 10 %
Klépierre
10 %
-40%
URW
-27 %
Hammerson
-80%
-45 %
Intu Properties
-92 %
-120%
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
Figures as of January 27th 2020 Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Reuters
34
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersRetail market (2/2) Stock market may be anticipating write-downs with pricing well below book values
PRICE / EPRA NAV DEVELOPMENT (Q1-16 – Q3/Q4-19)
1.4x
1.2x
Atrium Ljungberg
1.12x
1.0x
Klépierre
0.82x
0.8x Citycon
0.77x
URW
0.6x 0.61x
Olav Thon
0.56x
0.4x
Hammerson
0.38x
0.2x
Intu Properties
0.08x
0.0x
Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19
Figures as of January 27th 2020, EPRA NAV from latest company report Source: Pangea Research, Thomson Reuters, Company Reports
35
Market presentation Pangea Property PartnersDisclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Pangea Property Partners KB and information as of the date of this presentation. There is no guarantee that any of representatives, or other agents may disclose to any and all persons, without
Pangea Property Partners AS (”Pangea”) for the exclusive use of the party to these estimates or projections will be achieved. Actual results will vary from the limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and
whom Pangea delivers this presentation (together with its subsidiaries and projections and such variations may be material. Nothing contained herein is, or all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are
affiliates, the ”Company”) using information provided by publicly available shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. provided to the Company relating to such tax treatment and tax structure.
information. The valuations, forecasts, estimates, opinions and projections Pangea, its affiliates, directors, officers, employees and/or agents expressly Distribution of this presentation to any person other than the Company and
contained herein involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis. Pangea disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from the use of all or any part of those persons retained to advise the Company, who agree to maintain the
has not independently verified the information contained herein, nor does this presentation. This presentation has been prepared solely for informational confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein, is
Pangea make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any unauthorized. This material must not be copied, reproduced, distributed or
accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this securities or related financial instruments. The Company should not construe the passed to others at any time, in whole or in part, without the prior written
presentation. It should not be regarded by the recipients as a substitute for the contents of this presentation as legal, tax, accounting or investment advice or a consent of Pangea.
exercise of their own judgment. recommendation. The Company should consult its own counsel, tax and financial
advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described © 2020 Pangea Property Partners KB and Pangea Property Partners AS. All
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Pangea undertakes no herein. This presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of
rights reserved. Pangea specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material
obligation to update these forward-looking statements for events or the information that the Company may require. No investment, divestment or and accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates. Any information or opinion other financial decisions or actions should be based solely on the information in
expressed herein is subject to change without notice. Any estimates or this presentation.
projections as to events that may occur in the future (including projections of
revenue, expense, net income and stock performance) are based upon the best This presentation has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and
judgment of Pangea from the information provided by publicly available benefit of the Company; provided that the Company and any of its employees,
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