CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO - April 2019 - DWS
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CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO April 2019 For Professional Clients MiFID Directive 2014/65/EU Annex II) only. No distribution to private/retail investors. For Qualified Investors (Art. 10 Para. 3 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA)). For institutional investors only. Australia: For Professional Investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
2018 – MARKETS TOLD THE ECONOMY: THAT‘S IT!
15%
8%
DAX MSCI EM 2%
Q1-Q3 1%
So far so good, but… 10Y.
2018 S&P 500 -5% NASDAQ US-HY
BUNDS
-11%
2% 2018
S&P 500 DAX MSCI EM NASDAQ US-HY
Q4 10Y.
Worst
Did not end up like this year
2018 -8%
-5% BUNDS since
19011
-14% -14% -18%
16% 2019
13%
9% 10%
7%
Q1 3%
Best
Great start to the year January
2019 since
S&P 500 DAX MSCI EM NASDAQ US-HY 10Y. 1987
BUNDS
1 The worst capital-market year based on performance review since 1901, which includes 60 equity and bond markets (in USD). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future
returns. Sources: Deutsche Bank AG, Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /2TIME TO WORRY?
MAYBE YES…
/3RISK: WEAKER GROWTH WEIGHS ON DEBT
MAIN IMPACT WEIGHS ON ITALY
DEBT GDP1 DEBT
WEAKER GDP GROWTH in % of GDP nominal growth in % of GDP
Sustainability of debt levels more challenging –
higher refinancing costs & defaults 2018 Ø 2019-28 2028
60% 2.9% 40%
INCREASING PRESSURE GERMANY
On the ECB to stay supportive and keep
interest rates low
99% 2.4% 104%
FRANCE
COUNTRIES AT RISK
France (slightly higher debt/GDP ratios) & Italy
(substantial impact due to weakness of growth)
131% 1.5% 140%
ITALY
1Nominal GDP growth = real GDP + GDP deflator. For 2019 and 2020 DWS forecasts of GDP and inflation, primary balance from the EU commission. For 2021 to 2028 potential
growth rate. No change in the interest rate for the whole forecasting period. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates,
opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /4RISK: LIQUIDITY DRYING UP
CHANGE IN CENTRAL-BANK BALANCE SHEETS
Monthly change, 12-month moving average, USD bn.
FORECAST1
250
CENTRAL BANKS REDUCE LIQUIDITY
But due to economic-slowdown fears they
200
become more dovish
150
100
ROLE OF BANKS HAS CHANGED
50 Banks taking fewer credit & market risks
0
-50
POTENTIAL TRIGGERS
Isolated events (Brexit, trade conflict) can become
-100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 systematic & have a prolonged market effect
BoE BoJ ECB Fed Total
1DWS forecasts for 2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which
may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /5RISK: POPULISM REDUCES PREDICTABILITY
BREXIT EUROPEAN POPULISM TRADE CONFLICT
RISK CASE RISK CASE RISK CASE
EU withdrawal agreement Populist parties gaining Tariffs increase further
not approved, UK leaves more power – also in 10% → 25%
without transition phase the European elections contagion risk from China
– escalation leading to
trade war
Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /6IT’S NOT ALL BAD HOWEVER
THERE ARE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
/72019:
ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN YES – RECESSION NO
THE SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH ALSO HAS POSITIVE EFFECTS
GDP GROWTH 20191
U.S.
SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH
Reduces risk of overheating
+2.6%
Euro-
+1.3% INFLATION NEAR TARGET RATE
zone Low oil price has more friends than enemies
+6.0%
China
REDUCED NEED FOR FED ACTION
+7.8% With less growth & controlled inflation
India
1DWS forecasts for 2019, global growth expected to be at 3.5% in 2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates,
opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /8CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN MARKET-FRIENDLY
EXPECTED RATE HIKES OUTLOOK 2019
Fed funds future rates, %
3.0
SEPTEMBER 2018
RATE-HIKE CYCLE ALMOST DONE
2.8
+2 _ Historically low rates, especially in real terms
_ No rate hike in 2019 expected
2.6 DECEMBER 2018 FED
_ Policy “data dependent”, soft landing possible
2.4
+1
2.2
NO NEW BOND PURCHASES
CURRENT
_ But reinvestment of expiring bonds
2.0 0 ECB
_ Interest-rate hikes not expected until 2020
_ Financing costs remain low
1.8
2019 2020 2021
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and
hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /9INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY EXTENDS CYCLES
HIGH MARGINS – LITTLE PRESSURE WAGE GROWTH INCREASES PRESSURE TO INNOVATE
Moving 12-month average, % 8-quarter lead, %
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH1 4 3
2001-2009 2010-2018
3 2
+3% +1%
2 1
Ø PROFIT MARGINS2
1 0
2001-2009 2010-2018
7% 10% 0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-1
Productivity growth Real wage growth, right axis
1U.S. annual productivity growth in % 2 Net profit margins S&P 500 in % / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates,
opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Haver Analytics Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 10STRONG BALANCE SHEETS AND CASH FLOWS
PROFIT UTILIZATION
PROFIT1 INVESTMENTS CASH DEFICIT
DIVIDENDS _ Profits < investments + dividends
2009 DEFICIT _ Leverage increases
×2
CASH SURPLUS
_ Profits > investments + dividends
2019 SURPLUS
_ Debt repayment + share buybacks
1MSCI ACWI: Expected earnings-per-share growth 2009-2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and
hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 11OUTLOOK 2019: NO RECESSION IN SIGHT
ECONOMY CENTRAL BANKS PRODUCTIVITY CORPORATES
2019:
Low,
No recession Cautious Remain
innovation
expected, policy in solid
pressure is
inflation should normalization condition
increasing
be under control
Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 12THIS CYCLE CAN LAST FOR LONGER!
… BUT HICCUPS ARE POSSIBLE
/ 13VOLATILITY TO STAY HIGHER
VOLATILITY INCREASED WHEN FED WAS TIGHTENING
%
7 60
VOLATILITY
55
6 Tended to be higher in times when the
50 Fed hiked interest rates
5 45
40
4
35 FED IS ON HOLD
3 This can change, as there is still room
30
for rate hikes – risk: inflation overshoot
2 25
20
1
15
OTHER FACTORS
0 10 Overall economic slowdown,
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 uncertainty from trade conflict, Brexit…
Fed Funds Rate
Vix Index, 2-years lag (3-month average), right axis
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be
incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 14VERBAL HICCUPS KEEP INVESTORS ALERT
NEWS-BASED UNCERTAINTY EQUITY MARKET: TAIL RISKS REMAIN HIGH
Uncertainty index, index points S&P 500 daily return distribution, number of days
250 25 30
2017 2018
25
200 20 Q4 2017
20
150 15
15
Q4 2018
10
100 10
S&P 500
5
6% 3% 4% 6% -1% 3% 7% -14%
50 5
12/2016 06/2017 12/2017 06/2018 12/2018 0
-3% -2% -1% 0%
0% 1% 2% >3%
News-based economic uncertainty¹ Vix
1 The US News Based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Measures the news-based uncertainty about economic developments in the U.S. / Past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis
which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at
www.PolicyUncertainty.com, DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 15STRENGTHEN STABILITY
BONDS & REAL ESTATE
/ 16CORPORATE BONDS (AS FLOATER)
RETURN TOTAL RETURN VARIABLE (FLOATER)
RISK PREMIUM
FIX
FIX
Usually a bit higher
RISK
PREMIUM
OUR
+30bp. RISING YIELDS
Participate with floaters
YIELD FORECAST1
MARKET
VARIABLE
VARIABLE
RATE
LIQUIDITY
No big difference
CORPORATE BOND
1 DWS expectations for the rise in interest rates on 5-year German government bonds. For 2-year-olds, we expect an increase of 20 basis points. / Forecasts are not a reliable
indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment
GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 17VALUE FOR MONEY: ASIAN CORPORATE BONDS
YIELD1 LIQUIDITY HIGH-YIELD DEFAULT RATES2
4.3%
3.6% $ 250Bn. 0.4% EUROPE
New issues in 2018
QUALITY (SHARE OF IG) 1.9% U.S.
1.2%
80%
1.0% ASIA
EUROPE U.S. ASIA
1BofAML 5-7 Year Corporates Indices. Currency hedging costs for European investors: 3.05% 2 Current %-share of bonds in default of payment of the outstanding bond volume /
Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment
GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 18EURO-DOLLAR CURRENTLY PRICED FAIRLY
YIELD SPREAD U.S. / WORLD1 SHORT-TERM SIDEWARDS – COLLECT THE CARRY
5-year yield spread, %
1.8
1.5
0.9
ECB: NO RATE HIKE IN FED: END OF RATE-
THE NEAR FUTURE HIKE CYCLE
YIELD SPREAD U.S. TWIN DEFICIT
ITALY, BREXIT U.S. TRADE POLICY
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Current
1World: Average of German, New Zealand, Australian, UK & Japanese 5-year government bond yields. Current: U.S. 2.3%, World 0.5%. Highest yield spread since 1999 / Forecasts
are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of
April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 19SAFETY NET THROUGH REAL ESTATE
EUROPE: Ø TOTAL RETURN FORECAST 2019-23 MARKET TRENDS
IN % P.A.1
SHOPPING RESI-
CENTER DENTIAL
LOGISTICS OFFICE2 REAL-ESTATE PRICES
Price increases limited, driven by rental
growth (Ø 2%)3
5.0% RENTAL MARKETS
Positive economic backdrop supports
3.8% demand & vacancy reduction
2.6% 2.3%
FOCUS ON OFFICE
Emerging locations in suburban areas
City distribution, Ø total return (min – max)
1 DWS Ø total-return expectations, currency-hedged & annualized, distribution by city/country. For shopping centers, countries are compared, no cities 2 Highest expected total return
in Rotterdam, lowest in Stockholm 3 Annual rental growth 2019-23, DWS expectations / Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis
which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 20SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES
HIGHER RETURNS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH EQUITIES
/ 21EARNINGS RECESSION NO – SLOWDOWN YES
EARNINGS STILL EXPECTED TO GROW IN 2019
Market earnings-growth expectations for 2019, MSCI World, %
REPORTING SEASON
TOTAL 10% 5% Earnings estimates being reduced
CYCLICAL -$150Bn. CYCLICAL STOCKS WEAKEN
Highest earnings revisions for energy
DEFENSIVE STOCKS
STABLE REMAIN STABLE
Less sensitive to economic cycle
OCTOBER 2018 MARCH 2019
Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 22GLOBAL & STABLE: DIVIDEND STOCKS
DIVIDENDS: CONSISTENT TRACK RECORD
S&P 500, indexed 3/1/1990=1
5 STABLE INCOME
Even during recessions
EARNINGS PER SHARE1
4
3 RISK BUFFER
High long-term share of total return: 50%2
2
1
GLOBAL ALLOCATION
DIVIDENDS PER SHARE Currencies as an anchor of stability
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1 Basic earnings per share for the S&P 500 2 Share of reinvested dividends in the S&P 500 total return from 1990 to 2018 / Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future
returns.Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 23REGIONAL & CYCLICAL: GERMAN EQUITIES
RELATIVELY CHEAP1 EARNINGS SPLIT2
S&P 500
AUTOMOBILES EXAGGERATED
16.5 x PESSIMISM
DAX In Negative news in the
12.8 x
24% automobile & chemical
industry seems to be priced in
DAX
AUTO
CHEMICALS
6.3 x
GLOBAL PLAYER
11% Profit from emerging-markets
growth & possible trade deal
Price-earnings ratio 2019
1DWS expectations for the price-earnings ratio next 12 months (March 2020) 2 Share of selected sectors in the 2018 earnings estimates of the Dax Index / Forecasts are based on
assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 24STAY ON THE COURSE & DIVERSIFY
/ 25FUTURE RETURNS: DON’T EXPECT TOO MUCH
THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER IS SHIFTING1
LAST 20 YEARS
Total return p.a., %
Flat curve: bond bull market, equity (EQ)
12%
allocations did not pay off
REALIZED
SINCE 2010
10%
CURRENT CYCLE (2010-2018)
CIO VIEW Steep curve: central banks boosted asset prices,
8% (12 MONTHS) risk-taking was rewarded
6%
LONG-TERM CIO VIEW (12 MONTHS)
EXPECTATIONS Lower curve: Higher EQ allocation pays off, but
4% lower returns vs. last 10 years
REALIZED
2% SINCE 1999
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (+7Y)
Flatter & lower curve: Headwinds will lower
Volatility
0% returns, almost no contribution from fixed income
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
1Realized data series based on monthly data and volatility of respective observation periods. World market portfolio comprised of MSCI ACWI and Barclays Multiverse. CIO View forecast: volatility estimation
based on exponentially weighted, weekly data with a half-life of 5 years. Observation period: 1/11/08 to 3/1/19. LTCMA forecast: volatility estimation based on equally weighted, monthly data since 2008.
Forecasts as of December 2018. Shown results are based on index returns without any cost considerations. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of March 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 26STRENGTHEN STABILITY – SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES
ECONOMIC
STABILITY OPPORTUNITIES
OUTLOOK
CORPORATE BONDS GLOBAL DIVIDEND
AGING CYCLE
(EUROPE & ASIA) STRATEGIES
SLOWDOWN YES – EUROPEAN
GERMAN EQUITIES
RECESSION NO REAL ESTATE
Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 27DON’T FOCUS ONLY ON
THE RISKS – YOU MIGHT
OVERLOOK THE OPPORTUNITIES
/ 28APPENDIX: PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS
(12-MONTH PERIODS)
04/14 - 04/15 04/15 - 04/16 04/16 - 04/17 04/17 - 04/18 04/18 - 04/19
S&P 500 10.7% -1.0% 15.4% 11.1% 8.3%
MSCI World Index 5.4% -6.1% 12.4% 11.1% 2.2%
US IG Corp 4.9% 2.8% 2.7% 0.6% 5.4%
US HY 2.6% -1.1% 13.3% 3.3% 5.4%
Nasdaq 20.1% -3.4% 26.6% 16.8% 10.8%
DAX 19.3% -12.4% 23.9% 1.4% -7.4%
UST 10yr 7.2% 4.0% -1.3% -2.7% 6.4%
GER 10yr 9.7% 2.7% 0.8% -1.0% 5.6%
MSCI EM 5.3% -19.8% 16.4% 19.1% -8.1%
Asia Credit 5-7y 7.4% 4.8% 5.3% 0.1% 7.5%
Euro Credit 5-7y 6.5% 1.8% 3.1% 1.6% 2.8%
US Credit 5-7y 5.0% 3.5% 3.3% -0.1% 6.4%
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019
CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 29IMPORTANT INFORMATION: EMEA This marketing communication is intended for professional clients only. DWS is the brand name under which DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA and its subsidiaries operate their business activities. Clients will be provided DWS products or services by one or more legal entities that will be identified to clients pursuant to the contracts, agreements, offering materials or other documentation relevant to such products or services. The information contained in this document does not constitute investment advice. All statements of opinion reflect the current assessment of DWS Investment GmbH and are subject to change without notice. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical performance analysis, therefore actual results may vary, perhaps materially, from the results contained here. Past performance, [actual or simulated], is not a reliable indication of future performance. The information contained in this document does not constitute a financial analysis but qualifies as marketing communication. This marketing communication is neither subject to all legal provisions ensuring the impartiality of financial analysis nor to any prohibition on trading prior to the publication of financial analyses. This document and the information contained herein may only be distributed and published in jurisdictions in which such distribution and publication is permissible in accordance with applicable law in those jurisdictions. Direct or indirect distribution of this document is prohibited in the USA as well as to or for the account of US persons and persons residing in the USA. DWS Investment GmbH. As of: 4/2/19 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 30
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